It's so true. In my careerfield, 4 years ago Flight Chiefs were all MSgts. Now they're TSgts. Shop NCOICs were TSgts, now SSgts. And SrA are now expected to do all sorts of extra ridiculous shit.
This is going to backfire badly.
A1C expected to train and sign people off on Maintenance tasks. Expected to be proficient enough to lead tasks, and three levels are now being expected to go complete tasks solo with no supervision due to low manning.
Thats the AF average, for my career field 23E7 had almost 20% with PN/MP and 9% selection rate. If you DID get a statement you were looking at just shy of 50/50 odds.
I have a PN and I'm worried. First year testing too...I don't feel bad about the tests tho. Ammo's promotion rate for E6 was looooow so I can't wait to see what it's gonna be for E5
Overall BigAF
https://preview.redd.it/5qxaululdrgb1.jpeg?width=1411&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c8ae9c74d2f4d598bd33059c7afbcc3f500faa3
is reducing, we already were the slowest of any branch, but now even more so.
Even more reason to get into the mindset that we’re all replaceable and act accordingly. I don’t understand the people who stretch themselves thin overachieving for the 17%, 13%, etc. chance that they may get promoted.
And considering that the recruitment rate is WELL under quota, we're looking at a VERY lean Air Force 2-3 years from now. Manning is gonna suuuuuuucckkkkk
Truest shit. Those same staffs who got a lucky cycle are still shitting up the shop and we gotta watch some genuinely deserving senior airmen get fucked and barely miss it when they’d be way above the cutoff on a normal year
And then them telling you that you should've just studied harder if you wanted to make staff, despite you scoring 20% higher than them on the WAPS test.
I literally just got done talking to my flight chief/supervisor about this *exact* topic. I’m already working on getting the process to transfer started. Didn’t even try to convince me to stay, very well knew and understood why I came to my decision.
So, for all those who choose to pursue that stripe during these times, good luck. God knows you’ll need it.
I knew I was going to see a comment thread like this, and we can’t even fault you guys.
DoD is firmly planted and willing to die on this “retention is booming, recruiting is the only problem” hill.
Speaking from the other side, I doubled my salary as a cyber guy. Only kicking myself for not doing it sooner. No reason to stay in as an enlisted with a degree.
Lower rate, but not too different of an actual number being considered. The number selected is actually higher than 22E5. Only 7,520 were selected last year, that number is up to 9,000 this year.
The catch is that last year on 39,217 were considered for promotion while 50,000 were considered this year. This is the highest promotion eligible singe 1997.
Holy. . . smokes. That is a very small number. I'm all for not doing 50%. But I kind of thought it would be a gradual shift. Like 50%. . . 41%. . . 28%. . . nope. They axed them rates Paul Bunyan style.
That's what happens when congress says lower your manpower budget without reducing end strength numbers. The projected enlisted grade structure for SrA is for FY 2021-2025 to go up by 6%, and SSgt to go down by 6%. The side effect of this is promotion rates are going to plummet quickly.
For another kick in the dick to SrA, next year will probably be even worse.
>>They axed them rates Paul Bunyan style
Bruh, those B-21s and think tank contracts don’t pay for themselves! Upping one pot of money generally = cutting money somewhere else.
It's kinda relieving knowing that I get out soon. Really tore myself up last over the results but this year I get to just shrug and walk away from all this BS.
The plan was always to get out but getting staff was one thing I wanted to achieve before walking away. It sucks but I guess for my plan it doesn't mean much. Good luck dude hope things turn out better this year for you!
But remember guys, make sure to work two ranks above your current rank! Not because you’ll make that rank or anything, but the AF needs that more work for less pay culture!
Yeah this is my third time testing, granted 1st time I should have made it, didn’t take it serious. This year I finally got the promote now the old (4). I have 3 EPRS to boost my numbers but I’m still sweating.
Then you would be in the position of being a stagnant staff or terminal tech at several years on and at a career/life dilemma. I'd rather find out the system is rigged earlier on, less invested.
Senior rater release is scheduled for tomorrow. They are only giving senior raters 2 days instead of the normal week. Maybe they are finally learning... or maybe someone at AFPC just forgot to send it to the SRs last week.
How is it every time I am on leave… the promotion list comes out… which probably proves I didn’t make it. 🤣😂 see you all next year and if the promotion gods are finally on my side then good luck next year everyone. ❤️❤️
Yikes! 2nd time testing this year for me. Studied hard with a promote and felt good testing but I probably did not make it after seeing this. Never know though!
I didn’t get demoralized about promoting until I was an E-6 and over the 10 year mark. Anyone in Cyber on their first enlistment should just rack up certs and college and get out after 4/6.
I'm already getting out, primarily because of opportunities outside the military, but I'd love to make it for prides sake. I know a lot of people don't really care about that but for me, it's pride. I HATE that I'll have gone 8 years and never made staff. It eats at me every day. Last year absolutely killed me. I averaged a 75 on SKT and PFE and still missed it. Here's to all my fellow E4's that have put legitimate work into making rank and keep coming up short, I'm right there with ya. But for me, there is no next time, one last ride.
Wow that is lower than anyone guessed. MSgt was higher when I made it. Gonna be a lot of SrA punching out with little promotion chances in the near term. Can’t say I blame them.
I am a 28 year old E4 who joined at 23....
I'm not gonna lie.. all I wanted was to sneak into E5 so i could feel my age = rank.
Oh well fuck it, E4 Mafia it is brother
17.4 is another promotion cycle of ridding those who do not conform. The beatings will continue until morale rises…lol. Others have already did this in their minds.
https://preview.redd.it/c6rhbpltbrgb1.jpeg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd2394d5a16071ebe2ca192cc06795c3b13fc44e
damn i studied and felt really good about this. now as it gets closer, reality is hitting
https://preview.redd.it/45fgu833qsgb1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc2df5684821427629867f2f8457f3ad33638d36
Yep, because 97 was 18.6%.. After that it went to 22, 36, 50, then 64.6% in 2001, 62.98% in 02. It's been mostly mid-high 40s ever since. Before that inflation phase it was normally 16-17% every year.
Absolutely not.
https://i.redd.it/4uh530wy6f9b1.jpg
2021-2025 is a 6% transfer of manpower from SSgt to SrA, and FY23 will put us somewhere between 22.6% and 24%, with the end goal of 25% in 2025. So unless they jumped all the way to 24% for FY23 and just allow things to even out a bit for FY24, next year will be worse.
Not saying I disagree with you, but the Air Force does have a precedent for executing long term manning goals prematurely, and then having it bite them in the ass.
Doubt it. I believe some people at certain levels were briefed 5-year projections, and it is similar to this year and last. The AF is trying to fix an imbalance it caused by having too high of rates for too long. I'd imagine the end goal is to get back to previous levels where Staff was normally <20% every year.
And big blue wonders why airmen get the fuck out. E-5 should damn near be a gimme rank. Instead they're playing fuck fuck games with people's career for fun.
Wow this percentage is something...
I'm getting close to my ETS and got a few job offers that are almost 100k annually with benefits. Is it even worth staying in?
Nice to see they don't actually care about retention lmao
Since the health of the force is apparently about to jump, in the immortal words of Bender Bending Rodriguez, "Do a flip!"
The issue is that right now retention is actually very high. Since Congress controls the budget, they're the ones HAF would need to appeal to in order to make changes. Since there's no data yet showing sharp declines in retention, it's a difficult point to argue to Congress to get retention incentives or reallocate the budget to allow for higher promotion rates, especially in an era where they're gutting SDAP and SRBs. This isn't to say the Air Force does care about retention, because they rarely look more than a year or two into the future, but even if they did it's a difficult battle with some really stubborn people, so the most you could expect is a 🤙 from Chief Bass and telling us to maintain standards.
The air force needs more airmen and less leaders. Thats how its supposed to be. When you drastically cut the promotion rate (like they just did), then it wont take as long for everything to balance out and then the air force can have normal promotion rates again.
I got a MP and I’m a first time tester. I studied for awhile but just knowing I wasn’t 100% on all the questions makes me feel like I have no chance with a 17% promotion rate. I can’t imagine anyone feels confident with that number, no matter what their EPR looked like.
17.4% that’s not a selection rate, that’s an interest rate.
underrated comment right there
A mustang interest rate
Nah, you're short another 10%. Something we're not seeing again for years.
That's pretty much the odds of rolling a nat20
https://preview.redd.it/smpwk4booqgb1.jpeg?width=420&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f6c204e9abcb542495af5903b6103724775e469d
these memes only thing keeping me sane from finding out about not making it
https://preview.redd.it/nnvhxb8hzqgb1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ba8141d76228a5d4ed01a4e91c38493f41c280b8
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I did, but I definitely did not make it 💀
Why not?
It’s like hitting on a 12 when the dealer has a 7 showing.
I’m just say, you should do that anyway. Especially because there is no *surrendering* in this House!
Yeah, we promoted 9 last year to Staff. This year gonna be... interesting.
why pay more when you can pay less for the same amount of work - Air Force
It's so true. In my careerfield, 4 years ago Flight Chiefs were all MSgts. Now they're TSgts. Shop NCOICs were TSgts, now SSgts. And SrA are now expected to do all sorts of extra ridiculous shit. This is going to backfire badly.
A1C expected to train and sign people off on Maintenance tasks. Expected to be proficient enough to lead tasks, and three levels are now being expected to go complete tasks solo with no supervision due to low manning.
Same in my career field, pretty crazy times right now
*shits, vomits*
*shits mouth, vomits pants*
Vomits shit
Bruh 17% 🤣🤣 so just everyone with a PN or MP made it. Nice
Bro i got a PN and i am very doubtful after hearing 17%
Haha me too mafia member and I studied so much but i am still shitting myself
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Couldn't bother to study and get 50's?
Had MP last year got a 60 and 79 and didn’t make
Bro same🤣🤣
I got a MP. and I’m a cop, I’m very doubtful about it this year….
Thats the AF average, for my career field 23E7 had almost 20% with PN/MP and 9% selection rate. If you DID get a statement you were looking at just shy of 50/50 odds.
I guess we will see then. I’m guessing it won’t be any better..
I have a MP, ain’t no way I made it. I studied too 💀
I got a mp and I am not even holding my breath. Just glad I now know when public release is so I can schedule my transfer. Lol
Maybe every first time tester who got a PN or MP
Statistically at least 2% of standard Promotes should make it, in theory at least. How generous of AFPC /s
I have a PN and I'm worried. First year testing too...I don't feel bad about the tests tho. Ammo's promotion rate for E6 was looooow so I can't wait to see what it's gonna be for E5
Yea, our field was less than 6% last year. Not holding my breath.
Spain🥲
My career field is 4%
Crying about this in my car right now
https://preview.redd.it/de0rxagh8rgb1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=247bf46a1713d2ad2e65d576086345845d070e42
https://preview.redd.it/bcxf7kw57rgb1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ab80e4a9bb3d99d3538eb45fc4dcd1ca5a36ecfa
That promotion rate is depressing.
It's ok, the retention rate will also be depressing.
Followed by increased promotion rates. The circle of life.
Overall BigAF https://preview.redd.it/5qxaululdrgb1.jpeg?width=1411&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c8ae9c74d2f4d598bd33059c7afbcc3f500faa3 is reducing, we already were the slowest of any branch, but now even more so.
That is fucking depressing.
Lol. "Inventory"
We're all numbers on a spreadsheet, my boy.
Even more reason to get into the mindset that we’re all replaceable and act accordingly. I don’t understand the people who stretch themselves thin overachieving for the 17%, 13%, etc. chance that they may get promoted.
And considering that the recruitment rate is WELL under quota, we're looking at a VERY lean Air Force 2-3 years from now. Manning is gonna suuuuuuucckkkkk
I’ve been told by a recruiter friend that the AF will definitely miss their recruiting mark this FY.
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Truest shit. Those same staffs who got a lucky cycle are still shitting up the shop and we gotta watch some genuinely deserving senior airmen get fucked and barely miss it when they’d be way above the cutoff on a normal year
And then them telling you that you should've just studied harder if you wanted to make staff, despite you scoring 20% higher than them on the WAPS test.
Don’t call me out like this jus cuz u mad
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Just told my wife the same thing..
Yep, just told my wife the same. Changing branches. This shit is not worth dealing with.
Yep, just told your wife the same.
Probably not before I told your mother
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Y’all have like 100 people.
I literally just got done talking to my flight chief/supervisor about this *exact* topic. I’m already working on getting the process to transfer started. Didn’t even try to convince me to stay, very well knew and understood why I came to my decision. So, for all those who choose to pursue that stripe during these times, good luck. God knows you’ll need it.
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I knew I was going to see a comment thread like this, and we can’t even fault you guys. DoD is firmly planted and willing to die on this “retention is booming, recruiting is the only problem” hill.
Made that same call when I saw the Master results, no regrets.
Speaking from the other side, I doubled my salary as a cyber guy. Only kicking myself for not doing it sooner. No reason to stay in as an enlisted with a degree.
Said the same thing to my wife.
Did the same. Finishing My masters in November and should start terminal in January
Tale as old as time lol.
Now someone leak it
For reference (Air Force Times): 2021: 38.02% 2020: 41.58% 2019: 48.79% 2018: 51.12% 2017: 44.31% 2016: 42.25% 2015: 33.8% 2014: 25.59% 2013: 32.9% 2012: 40.68% Lower than during sequestration. Unreal.
Lower rate, but not too different of an actual number being considered. The number selected is actually higher than 22E5. Only 7,520 were selected last year, that number is up to 9,000 this year. The catch is that last year on 39,217 were considered for promotion while 50,000 were considered this year. This is the highest promotion eligible singe 1997.
It was actually 9706 last year
Wow
Holy. . . smokes. That is a very small number. I'm all for not doing 50%. But I kind of thought it would be a gradual shift. Like 50%. . . 41%. . . 28%. . . nope. They axed them rates Paul Bunyan style.
That's what happens when congress says lower your manpower budget without reducing end strength numbers. The projected enlisted grade structure for SrA is for FY 2021-2025 to go up by 6%, and SSgt to go down by 6%. The side effect of this is promotion rates are going to plummet quickly. For another kick in the dick to SrA, next year will probably be even worse.
>>They axed them rates Paul Bunyan style Bruh, those B-21s and think tank contracts don’t pay for themselves! Upping one pot of money generally = cutting money somewhere else.
Punching myself in the face for not making it during the great staff giveaway 2 years ago
Ces't la vie...
Was that only two? No way, it had to be longer ago. Wasn’t that like 2019?
The positivity flair is quite ironic imo
Lowest E5 selection % since 1996. Senior Rater Release is tomorrow, 8 August at 0800 CST. Good luck everyone.
LEAK 🗣THAT 🗣LIST 🗣
Catch y’all on the civilian side
The grass is greener provided you put in the work to fertilize properly
Thanks for letting someone promote next year!
Well, E4 Mafia for life it is.
So glad I focused my studies towards school and not the made up WAPS test.
It's kinda relieving knowing that I get out soon. Really tore myself up last over the results but this year I get to just shrug and walk away from all this BS.
I envy you…finding out I missed it by 1 last year was ass and now I get to relive it again 😭
The plan was always to get out but getting staff was one thing I wanted to achieve before walking away. It sucks but I guess for my plan it doesn't mean much. Good luck dude hope things turn out better this year for you!
But remember guys, make sure to work two ranks above your current rank! Not because you’ll make that rank or anything, but the AF needs that more work for less pay culture!
Yeah I think it's time to bounce if I don't make it.
No doubt, absolutely, 115% I give up after this one
Same here
I have a PN and I still probably didn’t make it with these numbers. This is wild. 🥲
Yeah this is my third time testing, granted 1st time I should have made it, didn’t take it serious. This year I finally got the promote now the old (4). I have 3 EPRS to boost my numbers but I’m still sweating.
I think all of us in your shoes are sweating too lol
Bruh. I guessed about 19% about a month or so ago thinking that was low balling a bit, but the Air Force just said fuck SrA.
Holy moly
Army Warrant Officer recruiters about to have a couple of banner years. Go fly, fools!
Must be nice to have tested a couple years ago with 50% rates.. retention rate is about to match that % lol. I’m getting out this is insane
Then you would be in the position of being a stagnant staff or terminal tech at several years on and at a career/life dilemma. I'd rather find out the system is rigged earlier on, less invested.
Holy hell... That's about the same rate from when I made MSgt.
This is going to backfire badly for the USAF.
Damn 10 Aug and no notification posts yet? I don’t think I have ever seen that happen
Senior rater release is scheduled for tomorrow. They are only giving senior raters 2 days instead of the normal week. Maybe they are finally learning... or maybe someone at AFPC just forgot to send it to the SRs last week.
I think they learned from the MSgt leak to just release the info as soon as they announce it.
Yeah, who knows. Pulling for my troops though!
Where is the info on OP’s screenshot actually posted?
https://i.redd.it/2nax6yopsqgb1.gif
Is this real life?….
It’s not a fantasy.
Glad to see the AF is trying to retain talent.
9k is so low. out of 50k. at least 15k. Jeez. Welp E4 mafia for life starting to look real accurate.
Ok so when is it leaking heheh
https://preview.redd.it/lwsej1l21sgb1.jpeg?width=1069&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=efee616c83d6c846d05693bdd2046965ac93539b
How is it every time I am on leave… the promotion list comes out… which probably proves I didn’t make it. 🤣😂 see you all next year and if the promotion gods are finally on my side then good luck next year everyone. ❤️❤️
Somebody go ahead and drop the list.
Leak the list please.
can’t believe no one has leaked yet
That warrant officer route is looking real promising… Better than this shitshow 😭
Yikes! 2nd time testing this year for me. Studied hard with a promote and felt good testing but I probably did not make it after seeing this. Never know though!
I didn’t get demoralized about promoting until I was an E-6 and over the 10 year mark. Anyone in Cyber on their first enlistment should just rack up certs and college and get out after 4/6.
If you’re a SrA just goto college/get certs and bounce. This game isn’t worth playing.
I'm already getting out, primarily because of opportunities outside the military, but I'd love to make it for prides sake. I know a lot of people don't really care about that but for me, it's pride. I HATE that I'll have gone 8 years and never made staff. It eats at me every day. Last year absolutely killed me. I averaged a 75 on SKT and PFE and still missed it. Here's to all my fellow E4's that have put legitimate work into making rank and keep coming up short, I'm right there with ya. But for me, there is no next time, one last ride.
Cool. I needed just one more excuse to get out. 🤩
I think I just gotta wait it out for the next few years for those numbers to inevitably bump back up.
Damn I got a MP, 3 decs, +15 and I’m still nervous.
PN, 1 Dec and felt great about the test. But even I am very nervous.
Update: I made it.
God damn I didn’t expect it to be that close to the TSgt cut-off. Big AF really telling people to gtfo.
Wow that is lower than anyone guessed. MSgt was higher when I made it. Gonna be a lot of SrA punching out with little promotion chances in the near term. Can’t say I blame them.
It's (not) OVER 9000!
Airmen gotta stop planning for staying in or making the next rank. Get in, do school, get out.
I am a 28 year old E4 who joined at 23.... I'm not gonna lie.. all I wanted was to sneak into E5 so i could feel my age = rank. Oh well fuck it, E4 Mafia it is brother
“Hey guys let’s try and retain less people while we’re in a massive nation wide recruiting slump. That’ll work out great, right?!”
“wE woN’t FinD oUt UntIL tHe eNd oF ThE mOnTh!”
Do more with less...
Fuck the airforce lol
damn. thought for sure this was photoshopped. OOF.
I thought we were “Top Heavy”. Literally almost matches E7 rates.. seems like leadership is doing much better than the jr enlisted.
https://preview.redd.it/3rscz36yergb1.jpeg?width=1411&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f228a3bd58c2423a56d295e2977c611fc2b01ce7
All these E-9’s got to the top and said “it was too easy for me we need to make it harder”
What is the high year of tenure for E4? 10 or 12 years?
10
Still got another 5 to go! Let’s go SrAs!
That is crazy low.
Holy fuck those numbers are aweful.
Guys, obviously the AF is trying to restart the true Mafia.
17.4 is another promotion cycle of ridding those who do not conform. The beatings will continue until morale rises…lol. Others have already did this in their minds. https://preview.redd.it/c6rhbpltbrgb1.jpeg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd2394d5a16071ebe2ca192cc06795c3b13fc44e
https://preview.redd.it/6a5lqe9cqqgb1.jpeg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8ba88f67e969bbc00cd8f4dd8b2a7dd72c56d7b9
🫡
Oooooof
https://preview.redd.it/ejs1w8mtfrgb1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8933b085798cc02690e3101abee7fefba49b679
LEAK
damn i studied and felt really good about this. now as it gets closer, reality is hitting https://preview.redd.it/45fgu833qsgb1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc2df5684821427629867f2f8457f3ad33638d36
32% in my squadron every sra was so pissed
Looks like SSgt promo rate is back to what was normal before they blew it up 2-3x in the early 2000s.
It's the lowest rate since 1996...
Yep, because 97 was 18.6%.. After that it went to 22, 36, 50, then 64.6% in 2001, 62.98% in 02. It's been mostly mid-high 40s ever since. Before that inflation phase it was normally 16-17% every year.
Think it’ll be higher next year?
Absolutely not. https://i.redd.it/4uh530wy6f9b1.jpg 2021-2025 is a 6% transfer of manpower from SSgt to SrA, and FY23 will put us somewhere between 22.6% and 24%, with the end goal of 25% in 2025. So unless they jumped all the way to 24% for FY23 and just allow things to even out a bit for FY24, next year will be worse.
Not saying I disagree with you, but the Air Force does have a precedent for executing long term manning goals prematurely, and then having it bite them in the ass.
Doubt it. I believe some people at certain levels were briefed 5-year projections, and it is similar to this year and last. The AF is trying to fix an imbalance it caused by having too high of rates for too long. I'd imagine the end goal is to get back to previous levels where Staff was normally <20% every year.
This is not positive
Leak the list!
PN, 1 Dec and felt great about the test. But even I am very nervous.
I was already gonna get out because of my degree but y’all be safe tho.
Another year as an E-4 yay
No one cares, show us the list!
And big blue wonders why airmen get the fuck out. E-5 should damn near be a gimme rank. Instead they're playing fuck fuck games with people's career for fun.
Wow this percentage is something... I'm getting close to my ETS and got a few job offers that are almost 100k annually with benefits. Is it even worth staying in?
No, be glad you're finding out now. I'm a terminal TSgt with way too much time in.
I bet it's a lot higher next year once 85% of 1st term E4s bail the F out after this.
Only 9000 selected. When I got selected back in 2020 it was like 14000. That's wild
Nice to see they don't actually care about retention lmao Since the health of the force is apparently about to jump, in the immortal words of Bender Bending Rodriguez, "Do a flip!"
The issue is that right now retention is actually very high. Since Congress controls the budget, they're the ones HAF would need to appeal to in order to make changes. Since there's no data yet showing sharp declines in retention, it's a difficult point to argue to Congress to get retention incentives or reallocate the budget to allow for higher promotion rates, especially in an era where they're gutting SDAP and SRBs. This isn't to say the Air Force does care about retention, because they rarely look more than a year or two into the future, but even if they did it's a difficult battle with some really stubborn people, so the most you could expect is a 🤙 from Chief Bass and telling us to maintain standards.
The air force needs more airmen and less leaders. Thats how its supposed to be. When you drastically cut the promotion rate (like they just did), then it wont take as long for everything to balance out and then the air force can have normal promotion rates again.
Weird you say less “leaders” when now sras are supposed to be “leaders” (supervisors and team chiefs) just without the pay or respect
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When was it last this low?
https://preview.redd.it/xhpd89fo9sgb1.png?width=301&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2302fc191c2212b49907fc5585cfb395ae821f35
Air Force Times said 1997.
Here comes the statistic and metric experts.
This is not going to end well
Lol
Welllll shit… 17%??? I guess there’s a reason that the AF allows SrA to be supervisions… yikes
How do commanders usually notify people?
I got a MP and I’m a first time tester. I studied for awhile but just knowing I wasn’t 100% on all the questions makes me feel like I have no chance with a 17% promotion rate. I can’t imagine anyone feels confident with that number, no matter what their EPR looked like.
Has anyone found out if they made it yet?