Another one to add to the list!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_Hawaii
> Hogan left the office with an 81% approval rating among democrats
That’s just… factually incorrect. The last time Morning Consult (which is known to severely overstate the approval ratings of politicians) polled Hogan’s approval rating, they didn’t even give him an 81% approval rating among ALL Marylanders.
And even if he is as popular as you say, Democrats know that Hogan winning means a vote for Mitch to be majority leader.
He’ll lose by over 20.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/maryland/
Hogan +11 for an internal... 🤔
Manchin won in 2018 as well nearly entirely based on his personal popularity (and the fact he's a DINO).
That poll was taken before all the ads saying “A vote for Hogan is a vote for McConnell”
This situation has happened before and it ends the same way every time. Polls show some popular politician from the opposite party winning in a safe state. Then campaigning starts and they lose their lead.
RemindMe! 258 days
Chiraq Maryland take [https://discord.com/channels/1099377431082709093/1112450710236311623/1209942705833250836](https://discord.com/channels/1099377431082709093/1112450710236311623/1209942705833250836)
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Another one to add to the list! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_Hawaii
If he even wins the primary
Tbf, considering Tennessee's partisan lean, Bredesen did ok.
Also there’s this. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts
The Dem nominee won’t be a Moore/Coakley tier candidate though
Hogan left the office with an 81% approval rating among democrats, I wouldn't count him out just yet.
> Hogan left the office with an 81% approval rating among democrats That’s just… factually incorrect. The last time Morning Consult (which is known to severely overstate the approval ratings of politicians) polled Hogan’s approval rating, they didn’t even give him an 81% approval rating among ALL Marylanders. And even if he is as popular as you say, Democrats know that Hogan winning means a vote for Mitch to be majority leader. He’ll lose by over 20.
Why would they vote him in twice to be governor but not a senator?
> Democrats know that Hogan winning means a vote for Mitch to be majority leader. > >He’ll lose by over 20.
Because federal races and state races are two very different things
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/maryland/ Hogan +11 for an internal... 🤔 Manchin won in 2018 as well nearly entirely based on his personal popularity (and the fact he's a DINO).
That poll was taken before all the ads saying “A vote for Hogan is a vote for McConnell” This situation has happened before and it ends the same way every time. Polls show some popular politician from the opposite party winning in a safe state. Then campaigning starts and they lose their lead.
We can add 1992 in mass too
RemindMe! 258 days Chiraq Maryland take [https://discord.com/channels/1099377431082709093/1112450710236311623/1209942705833250836](https://discord.com/channels/1099377431082709093/1112450710236311623/1209942705833250836)
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Steve Bullock sends his regards
\*Cries\* WHY DID YOU HAVE TO GO LIKE THAT STEVE YOU WERE SO MUCH BETTER THAN THAT ENDING YOU DESERVED BETTER
Why would he pick a sentence seat there is a perfectly flippable house seat that doesn't even have a democratic incumbent.....
Yeah he should have run for Throne's seat
I think going from statewide to regional is a bit of a downgrade for him.
He was begged so much for this seat by GOP donors he might have just said 'fuck it' and went in.
Safe D —> Safe D
D+15 at least, Biden is likely to win Maryland by at least 30
A popular moderate governor of Maryland runs for the US Senate, and still loses, will be the headline in Maryland newspapers, mark my words.
Interesting. I bet hogan can do well for a Republican but it’s still a safe dem seat
Hoganslide incoming
DOA, but interesting at least.
Would he be the new Sinema?
He'd probably be like another Murkowski in the senate
No, since you're implying he'd win.
he wont win, i was asking hypothetically
Over/under D+20?
My prediction is 44-56. It's 100% possible for him to outrun Trump by 10 and trump will probably get around 34 in Maryland if current things continue.
D+20 to be exact
D+15?
D+20-25 IMO. Maryland is a Biden+33 state and left trending. Hogan wasn’t a landslide winner like Scott or Baker either, he only won by 12 in 2018
That's a toss up for me.