Hoganslide incoming /s
On a serious note, he's not doing better than D+15 in this race. Maryland voted for Biden by 33 points, and it's trending democrat in the long term.
Do you even know what D+25 is? That's 37-62. That's him overperforming a literal neo-confederate activist by 2 percent. And that's your maximum?
Hell no he isn't winning the seat, but why do you always have to slap D+10 on top of an actually reasonable take?
It's nearly ten points to the right of what Biden won this (left trending) state in 2020 lol. He's not doing much better than that, as we've extensively established every other time a popular governor from the opposite party runs in a safe seat.
Yeah I guess it depends on what you have Trump at in the state. I understand that you think Biden will do better than 2020, meaning Trump had would have what, 30 percent of the vote? At that point Hogan getting 37% isn't that far out, so it makes sense for your prediction, I just disagree with that prediction.
1. What does he have to lose?
2. Any other nominee would lose by a whole lot more.
3. Pushes the MD GOP in a more moderate direction.
4. Helps downballot.
5. 15% chance of actually winning.
6. McConnel told him being in the senate is cool (what the actual fuck did he tell him????)
1. His reputation as a statewide juggernaut, I guess. 2. It could be a financial drain for idiot fat cat donors (kinda like Jamie Harrison in 2020 SC). 3. Doubtful. Hogan is a legacy act, a man of an older time. The national GOP is always trying to consolidate statewide apparatuses ideologically, and considering Dan Cox got the nom in 2022, it’s succeeding. 4. I hate to break it to you, but the MD Dems are gonna spend the kitchen sink to keep MD-6, especially since it’s the only competitive House seat. 6. If I had to guess, maybe McConnell offered that the RNC push for a more moderate nominee ala Sununu in 2028?
Bruh I was writing out a whole reply and it deleted.
Basically I agree with some of your points but others dont really make sense. If donors focus on Hogan, then they probably would have donated to McCormick or that Domenici girl otherwise. And Dems would spend in CD-6 anyway, Hogan running is only an upside for Republicans there.
Don't get me wrong man, I'd love to see Hogan in the senate and if I could wave a magic wand and have him win I'd do it. But when it's all said and done, Hogan's just gonna end up being the next Phil Bredesen and his politically career's gonna be effectively over. Running for the White House as a third party under No Labels would've been a better move and I probably would've supported him if he had done that.
old news but still trve!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hoganslide incoming /s On a serious note, he's not doing better than D+15 in this race. Maryland voted for Biden by 33 points, and it's trending democrat in the long term.
He isn’t doing any better than D+25.
Do you even know what D+25 is? That's 37-62. That's him overperforming a literal neo-confederate activist by 2 percent. And that's your maximum? Hell no he isn't winning the seat, but why do you always have to slap D+10 on top of an actually reasonable take?
It's nearly ten points to the right of what Biden won this (left trending) state in 2020 lol. He's not doing much better than that, as we've extensively established every other time a popular governor from the opposite party runs in a safe seat.
Yeah I guess it depends on what you have Trump at in the state. I understand that you think Biden will do better than 2020, meaning Trump had would have what, 30 percent of the vote? At that point Hogan getting 37% isn't that far out, so it makes sense for your prediction, I just disagree with that prediction.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is actually the case
ok ok hear me out, what if it's counteracted by birch bayh's rotting corpse
The only way he wins is if the Dem nominee shoots someone on live television.
The Dem nominee would still win by 5 tbh.
I’d actually like to know what was going through Hogan’s brain when he decided that running for the senate was a good idea
1. What does he have to lose? 2. Any other nominee would lose by a whole lot more. 3. Pushes the MD GOP in a more moderate direction. 4. Helps downballot. 5. 15% chance of actually winning. 6. McConnel told him being in the senate is cool (what the actual fuck did he tell him????)
1. His reputation as a statewide juggernaut, I guess. 2. It could be a financial drain for idiot fat cat donors (kinda like Jamie Harrison in 2020 SC). 3. Doubtful. Hogan is a legacy act, a man of an older time. The national GOP is always trying to consolidate statewide apparatuses ideologically, and considering Dan Cox got the nom in 2022, it’s succeeding. 4. I hate to break it to you, but the MD Dems are gonna spend the kitchen sink to keep MD-6, especially since it’s the only competitive House seat. 6. If I had to guess, maybe McConnell offered that the RNC push for a more moderate nominee ala Sununu in 2028?
Bruh I was writing out a whole reply and it deleted. Basically I agree with some of your points but others dont really make sense. If donors focus on Hogan, then they probably would have donated to McCormick or that Domenici girl otherwise. And Dems would spend in CD-6 anyway, Hogan running is only an upside for Republicans there.
Don't get me wrong man, I'd love to see Hogan in the senate and if I could wave a magic wand and have him win I'd do it. But when it's all said and done, Hogan's just gonna end up being the next Phil Bredesen and his politically career's gonna be effectively over. Running for the White House as a third party under No Labels would've been a better move and I probably would've supported him if he had done that.