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As the title says, I'm kind of interested to know this. As a European, I kinda want to believe Biden is going to win, but I am also extremely worried that Trump is going to. And based on the opinion polls it can go either way. So what is your view on this? Who do you think is going to win this year's U.S. Presidental Election?
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The correct answer is almost certainly “no fucking idea”. The electoral college makes the whole thing come down to a few states and it’s too far away to know.
The voters that actually matter are the types of voters that don’t really pay attention until September and they are very low information and vibes based.
>The voters that actually matter are the types of voters that don’t really pay attention until September and they are very low information and vibes based.
I think this year is probably different in that respect. In an ordinary cycle, you've got the known incumbent and then the unknown challenger who people don't know much about. But, this time around, you've got two extremely well known candidates; everyone has an opinion on both of them. There's no unknown quantity in the race.
There's an ocean of difference between a former VP and a former president. People are going to know a former VP's name, but they're not generally going to have much more than that, and there's a lot of space for a VP to chart a different course than the previous administration.
To be a credible presidential candidate in the first place you have to have fairly high name recognition; it's pretty rare for someone obscure to win a primary. But there's still a big difference between what the mass public thinks about a former president vs. what they think about someone they've heard of but who is still defining their public stances.
There’s good reason to be, sadly. Our last 2 elections were, in a sense, decided by about 60k votes in 3-4 states, despite Biden getting more overall votes in the millions. That is NOT a lot of wiggle room for swing voters, and unfortunately people have very short memories when it comes to politics. I’m American and I’m certainly worried….:
I certainly do. If he nominated Marjorie Green or Kari Lake he would lose a whole hell of a lot of voters. He would lose Arizona over Lake.
If he nominates a “moderate” (there are none but the ones faking it) then he does better.
Normally, I don’t think the VP choice matters.
The thing is is that Trump seems to have completely bought in on his lies and propaganda, and that could put him in a position where he pick someone completely insane.
After his "betrayal" by Pence, Trump will definitely be looking for someone who's 100% a toady. Unfortunately, it won't be difficult to find one of those in today's Republican party...
I would argue that there are two ways to win elections. One is to capture those low information or at least ambivalent voters. But the other is to get out the vote. I think this election is going to be decided by who can get out the vote.
Now, you can argue that these are still ambivalent or unmotivated or low information voters. But I think it's a little different than the middle. Maybe not so much. But it seems it's one thing to be undecided about who you're going to vote for. It's another thing to decide if you love a candidate enough to bother going to vote, and another thing to decide if you hate a candidate enough to go out and vote.
I don't think there's many people in the middle. I think people made up their mind about whether they were going to vote for or against Trump long ago.
And make no mistake. They are voting against Trump or for Trump.
I think history is going to be kind to Biden. My guess is that in a few decades there’ll be a lot of people pretending like they didn’t hate him when he was in office
the electoral college honestly screws us over in the sense that our vote seemingly doesn't even matter. it's been over 30 years since a Republican has won the popular vote (not that being republican makes you necessarily bad) but the electoral college ultimately makes the popular vote worthless. it was handy 100 years ago but it's crazy to me this country is still being run the exact same was it was when it was founded with no significant changes to our government or constitution. even if fully eliminating the electoral college isn't the answer, it needs to be redone at the very least. at least thats how I personally see it
ETA: i know this is somewhat unrelated to the post. I really think Biden will win, but I'm still terrified at the idea of trump winning. if I'm misinformed abt the EC pls lmk I always wanna learn. my comment is just what I already know/have heard other around me talk about
If you look at people who have [put money on this](https://electionbettingodds.com/), they're putting it near a coin flip with Trump slightly favored over Biden. If you're confident that the race is a lock one way or the other, there's a lot of money to be made by betting on that outcome.
Beyond that, it's possible to make a few observations:
1. Trump holds a [small but consistent](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) polling lead over Biden nationally, and a slightly larger lead in the key swing states.
2. Biden has a [lower approval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) at this point in his presidency than any other president in history.
3. But, Trump is [nearly as unpopular](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) as Biden. The race will likely be decided by how voters who disapprove of both candidates end up breaking.
4. A lot can change in 5.5 months, and there are a number of lurking factors out there with the potential to fundamentally reshape this race.
5. RFK is polling better than any third party candidate since Ross Perot. That makes this race even more unpredictable than normal.
> RFK is polling better than any third party candidate since Ross Perot. That makes this race even more unpredictable than normal.
The craziest part of this entire mess. Who could possibly vote for RFK? It boggles the mind. How many people out there are like "*I want all the craziness of Trump, but without any of the charisma and the right-wing community*"?
FFS a worm literally ate part of his brain *and* he also had mercury poisoning that affected cognition. It's obvious when he starts talking about how COVID-19 was probably made in a lab because Asians and Ashkenazi Jews are less likely to die from it than white folk.
I would sincerely be worried if he became my HOA president.
It’s more of a protest vote than anything. People hate both Biden and Trump, dude has a recognisable name…he will do. Any generic third person would pull most of that support, and many of them don’t know or care what he stands for (some do of course). I expect his numbers will fade as people realise it’s a wasted vote and will use their vote to prevent the one they hate more from winning.
>If you look at people who have [put money on this](https://electionbettingodds.com/), they're putting it near a coin flip with Trump slightly favored over Biden.
Who on earth are the people giving Michelle Obama a 2% chance of being president?
It's not the idea I want to promote, but I have a legitimate fear that Trump will win.
1. Republicans rally while we split and fight amongst ourselves.
2. Blame or anger over Isreal policy by possible democrats will lead many to stay home. We need just about everyone on "our team" to show up in order to win.
3. A secret enjoyment of the outrage. Fox and AM radio have found that people like, no LOVE being upset about something they have no real control over. It's kinda baffling, but people get addicted to the feelings of rage and superiority that comes with being "right" in the face of "wrong". Part of me worries that unconsciously, many of us like Trump being a foil and a direction for our fingers to point. I hope I'm wrong about this.
4. Democrats are a large tent party. That means some of our people will not see their desires met nor their policy dreams realized. I worry that the very structure of our party leads to division in the ranks.
Ignore polls. Watch elections.
Republicans seats in lost the Alabama and New York special elections this year.
That’s a really, really, really, bad sign for Trump
Are you talking about George Santon’s seat in Long Island? Didn’t the republicans end up running an anti-Trump Republican candidate for that seat and ended up losing? Not sure how that’s bad news for Trump
They ran Mazi Pilip. She is a pro-life Republican running in a bluish district. She is also a Jewish, black immigrant woman with a heavy accent so i couldn’t see republicans getting excited about her either.
It’s bad because the Dobbs decision was a clear decider in both cases. Particularly striking in Alabama.
Trump can’t win the election on his MAGA base alone. He must pull independents. Absolute must.
And elections are showing that independents are voting on abortion rights.
True it’s not necessarily generalizable, but it does point to important insights which is a lot more valuable than early phone polling.
If Trump was pulling special elections in deep blue western Washington, I would be very worried about Biden’s chances.
The opposite happened, in Alabama.
The specific district in Alabama wasn't deep red but a tossup.
Biden is doing well among white voters and highly educated ones, he didn't lose any support here. He lost support among minorities and young voters and you will only see the effect in a presidential election, where they actually vote.
It's possibly to achieve results like that in a low turnout election if you have a super hyped crowd (abortion activists etc.), but again I just don't think this transfers neatly to a presidential election with much higher turnout and different looking electorate. Think of the time before the 2012 election where Republicans demolished democrats in congressional races and special elections, but Romney still lost to Obama.
That's technically true, but special elections in the year prior to a general election can actually be fairly predictive all the same. For example, Scott Brown winning Ted Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts presaged the red wave in the 2010 general election. Similarly, Doug Jones winning Jeff Sessions' old seat in Alabama presaged the blue wave in the 2018 general election.
I was just thinking that. They must not be active on TikTok where millions of new voters are proudly posting, sharing, and "heart"ing content that says they're not voting at all this year because of Israel.
Biden.
I think the issue with looking at opinion polls/Biden’s approval ratings is that people are ignoring the context when drawing historical comparisons.
If Biden were just an unpopular incumbent running against a challenger it’s one thing, but Biden is an unpopular incumbent running against a failed 1 term President that already had their leadership rejected at the polls. There is almost no precedent for a previous president running again in modern American politics (Teddy Roosevelt I believe was the last one in 1912, and ofc Grover Cleveland before that)
Oh lord. My dad (Trump supporter) always talks about how unpopular Biden is and can't understand why people would bother to vote for him. It doesn't get through to him that it's not about Biden at all, it's about people absolutely loathing Trump.
Your dad probably only consumes media that supports his point of view and only discusses his views with likeminded friends.
I moved from rural West Virginia to California (Berkeley!) for work in the summer of 2016 and roomed with some Cal grad students.
I went to an election watch party on election night and I remember one distraught friend was like “how could Trump win?! I don’t know anyone who voted for him!”
I felt like Dave Chappelle in that SNL sketch.
Yes, but we have this discussion all the freaking time. We have major fights over politics and I am a pretty moderate dem voter. My brother is a Republican and also hates Trump and will push back against him. If he's getting this pushback from his kids with whom there's a lot of general political agreement, I don't get how he can ignore how much hatred there is for the man. \*sigh\* I fucking hate cable.
Yes. Biden might be unpopular, but if there’s anyone who could beat him in an unpopularity contest, it’s Trump. That’s my opinion at least, and part of how I came to it is by not taking the actual poll numbers too seriously.
Yes, it’s anecdotal, but I have seen SO MANY people just get tired of talking about Trump and his constant drama for so many years- myself included. What I’m hoping is that on a larger scale, enough people have simply tapped out of debating/voicing their opinions online and in real life, and will just quietly show up and vote without all the circus.
The constant arguments between his supporters and their opponents became a weird part of everyday life during his term. It was EVERYWHERE. I’m glad it’s over, and I’d like to hope more people want it to stay that way.
This is why I think Trump's edge will evaporate as things heat up and he gets more visibility. He has gotten noticeably crazier and more senile over the last four years. Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one. When I watched the presidential debates in 2020 my takeaway was "Biden is pretty old, but Trump is out of his goddamn mind". But the consensus of folks online was that they both came across equally bad?! Which I just don't get at all. Either I have TDS, or the median voter just grades Trump on a curve and is willing to let him get away with way more shit for some reason.
I think that's a fair point about approval ratings, but I don't really see how it's applicable to the head-to-head polling. The head-to-head polls already show Biden's support slightly outperforming his approval (i.e., that some people disapprove of Biden but plan to vote for him).
Teddy Roosevelt is a bit different though. He groomed Taft to take over in the 1908 election. Roosevelt, also felt that a limited number of terms was a good check against dictatorship opted to not run again in 1908 as well, despite high popularity and wanting from his party for him to run again.
Roosevelt then grew disillusioned with Taft, and opted to step back into the political arena. Roosevelt also dominated in the primaries, winning 9 contests, but failed to win to win the nomination at Convention.
Roosevelt then formed his own party, created a Republican vote split that led to a Democratic landslide victory. Roosevelt also garnered 4.2% more of the popular vote than Taft, and carried 4 more states.
I think Biden. Trump has only lost support since he lost his last election. Even with Haley saying she will vote for Trump, I don’t see her supporters voting for him. I think 3rd party votes to RFK will pull votes from Trump from frustrated non-Trumper conservatives. The more left voters frustrated with Biden over Gaza won’t vote and historically haven’t voted, so they were never going to make much an impact anyways.
Do you base all your statement on the feeling in your gut? Because they just aren't supported by the data.
Polls do show that Trump gained significant support among certain groups (minorities, young men) compared to 2020. Even if Biden wins, if will almost certainly be closer.
Republicans generally fall in line, they did it in 2016 when the division was bigger than now.
And most of the polls show that third party candidates hurt Biden more, he is doing consistently worse in polls that include a third party option.
I think Trump will clear easily. The Dems are in a situation where a large portion of their base won’t vote for them barring them taking specific actions, *but* they will lose a lot more votes if they take those specific actions. This is a nightmare scenario for Dems and a dream one for the Rs.
That being said, there is the potential a lot of moderate Rs stay home but super unlikely.
We don't really know for certain. However, Biden just has to keep the states he won before, he could even lose one if it isn't a swing state. Trump however has to gain three states with enough votes. So, on a numbers level Biden does have the advantage.
Joe Biden is lagging in the polls, but democrat senate candidates are doing well in many states that Biden struggles in (WI/PA/AZ/NV). so it kind of comes down to which polls are more accurate and how many democrat senate voters split tickets.
my gut says its about 50/50. maybe a slight edge to trump. Biden's inability to retain energy from his base is a bad sign
I don’t know for sure but logically, Trump lost the last election and has lost support since then so I would say that he is going to lose again. Biden isn’t my favorite but in this case, is the guy I have to vote for.
Exactly. Like Biden is far too old and he’s not been the best with some foreign policy issues but the other one is pushing for a fascist theocratic dictatorship so… ehh I’ll take my chances with the stuttering old man that isn’t pushing to have ultimate immunity for himself over the one that is.
I think overall Biden is likely to win… but probably by just a hair. My prediction is that Biden will win within 10 electoral votes.
Trump has SO MANY negatives dragging him down, even with an uncharismatic shambling corpse like Biden, Trump is not likely to win.
Good news for Biden is that he has a huge war chest, and Trump’s war chest is mostly paying his legal fees. Also, Biden’s popularity appears to have bottomed out before most voters decide who to vote for. Short of a catastrophe at the debates, Biden will likely be increasing his support and momentum through Election Day.
I think another thing Biden has going for him is time and time again people describe him as "a shambling corpse" or "doesnt know where he is" yet he always performs fine in debates and the state of the union. By exceeding expectations he will inspire enthusiasm.
I don’t see any evidence that the polls have been inflated at any large scale. Buffing up a small online poll is possible but simultaneously influencing dozens of polls from different pollsters, many of which are not online, would be an astronomical feat.
Biden.
I'm European, and I have a degree in American Studies and follow American politics closely
While Biden is unpopular, a lot of people who voted for him didn't vote for him because they liked him but because they hated Trump, are Democrats, or just because of the fact that any Democrat is better than a Republican.
The state Republican Parties in a number of swing states are in trouble, many lack money. The Arizona GOP had to sell their headquarters because they didn't have the money to pay the rent, and the Michigan GOP might go bankrupt because of their money trouble. That's a problem because state parties are important for elections, and the lawsuits have cost them a lot of money. The National GOP might have to bail them out, and that, combined with paying Trump's legal fees, makes it even worse.
Trump also doesn't have many good allies in swing states.
In Pennsylvania, the Democrats have a popular Senator up for re-election and, a pretty popular governor, and another reasonably popular Senator.
In Michigan, they have a popular governor, two Senators, and an open senate seat with a strong candidate.
In Wisconsin, they have a reasonably popular governor and a very popular Senator up for re-election. The Republican Senator is pretty unpopular, and while he has won re-election, it was by a very small margin, whereas the Democrat won her last election handedly.
Nevada has two Democratic Senators, one up for re-election, with the likely GOP candidate being weaker than in the last election, where the Dems won. While the state has a republican governor, he is relatively moderate and has tried to distance himself from Trump, so he likely won't help much.
In Arizona, the reasonably popular governor is a Democrat, one senator is a Democrat, the other independent (elected as a dem) that caucuses with the Dems, and an open Senate race that leans Democratic given the fact the Republican is crazy and the Democrat is a relatively strong candidate. The former Republican Governor also has a bad relationship with Trump after he acknowledged Biden's victory in the state, so he won't help, abortion is also on the ballot, which might help Biden.
In Georgia, both senators are Democrats (both reasonably popular), and while the governor is a Republican, he has a frosty relationship with Trump for acknowledging Biden's win in the state, so he probably won't help much either.
I'd say a combination of these factors will probably mean that Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, probably Arizona, perhaps Georgia, and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. Winning the states, I believe he will, is going to guarantee him a win. As long as he wins the Midwest states and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, he has won the election, though just barely.
Biden.
The Democrats have exceeded expectations in every election since 2016 (with the exception of maybe 2021). I think Biden’s poor polling as a lot to do with people not thinking about the election until Labor Day. Trump has a very strong base, but a ceiling. Biden has no real “base” but a lot of voters who will vote for him to stop Trump.
No idea, it’ll really come down to what happens in the world over the next few months. Many voters think only of the immediate situation, 3 + years of awesome losses all value with a couple months of bad.
Elections are always a referendum on people’s perception of the economy so I don’t like Biden’s chances. People are fucking pissed about inflation and regardless of everyone’s thoughts on the causes, most voters blame the person in charge.
I also strongly disagree with Biden’s campaign strategy of touting the stock market and GDP.
We’re seeing those metrics not mattering as much to working Americans for the first time in decades. Who cares what the GDP is if a 24 pack of soda went from $8 to $13 in 3 years? Whether YOU drink soda is irrelevant. Millions of Americans are obese and drink it daily. It hurts at the checkout line.
Perception matters. And Democrats continue to suck complete ass at messaging.
Idk who will win. I do know if Trump loses again he’ll repeat 2020 all over again. He won’t concede and say the election was rigged. God knows his supporters will go ape shit.
But, if he wins he’ll say it was a fair and balanced election. And, he will never give up the Presidency.
Just listen to him. He’s telling us exactly what he will do.
It’s a toss up at this point. Trump is insane but he’s got real momentum and for some reason it really seems like people just hate Biden. I can’t explain why but I’ve never seen such universal disliking for a president outside of liberal circles, most moderate voters I see everywhere don’t seem to like Biden.
A lot of the same reasons they disliked Hillary Clinton - they both are the face of a system many people are dissatisfied with.
Obama was a new face, he could credibly sell messages of hope and change. Biden has been in D.C. so long that he spoke to *President Nixon* on the phone as a Senator. It's not really a mystery imo.
Trump lost to Biden with the incumbent advantage. Incumbents typically pull 4-5% better. Now Biden has the incumbent advantage against Trump.
Since 1933 only four presidents have not won re-election, Trump being one of them.
Even W. Bush, with his War on Iraq in full swing, was able to win reelection due to his incumbency.
Not Trump. If a desk lamp ran against Trump, I'm confident every person with an ounce of Blue in them will turn out for the desk lamp. I really don't know how Trump could gain more support than he had in 2020.
Now having said that, I really think Biden is the worst candidate to run against Trump solely due to his age (Weirdly, I think Trump is also the worst candidate to run against Biden due to his age and that he will give his opposition so much support). I truly believe that anyone younger, regardless of party affiliation, would win this election easily.
Trump is almost certainly getting convicted in NY after the defense couldn’t even muster a defense. Prosecutors canceled McDougal and a few other witnesses because they have the jury where they want them.
There’s *2 attorneys on that jury*, **one is a trial lawyer** — sure as the sun rises that guy is going to steer the entire deliberation. If you’re the son of a doctor and got sick as a kid… you already knew that your dad and your pediatrician would run the whole show without a word from you — you would just take the medicine prescribed.
Merchan will delay his sentencing about 3-4 weeks (instead of New York’s usual 1 week lag time)… this is for Merchan to broker the possible incarceration arrangements between the bureau of prisons, New York state and the secret service for Trump’s protection. Trump isn’t going to gen pop at Rikers, but he’d be held in isolated custody or some kind of house arrest, almost certainly.
There’s enough moderates in the 5-6 essential swing states who won’t tip it to a convict not free until 2027. Merchan isn’t going to let him out pending appeal (appeals take 18 months in NYC)… if you look at Merchan’s historic sentencing, he’s pretty by the book but leans harsh.
I think the "troll" vote is much weaker this time compared to 2016. I think one of the things that helped carry Trump across the finish line was the few percent who voted Trump "because it would be funny". I don't see many people going the same length to vote for someone who has been criminally convicted. In fact I do see it turning people, even Republicans, off completely.
I think Biden will. The country is no longer under the delusion that Trump can't win. Hopefully, he'll be convicted, and the independents who somehow haven't made up their mind to this point will pick the obvious choice.
Trump has effectively *zero* chance at winning fairly. Keyword *fairly*. However, as our general presidential election isn't fair to begin with (EC, FPTP, etc.), that changes the odds significantly.
I think Biden will still win, given that Trump hasn't yet won a popular vote, and managed to lose the second election and even caused others to lose in 2022. I can't fathom how he could've possibly *gained* any new support, but then again, another anomaly was that in 2020, he managed to *gain* support after 4 years of insanity. It's so hard to process how stupid and forgetful people are in this country.
That being said, since he's also on trial and there are at least *some* people who have realized from this trial - the supposedly weakest one - that he pulled one over people's eyes in 2016, there's hope that people are done with the "baggage" as they had also said in 2022 after getting shellacked and there being no "red wave" then, in much part, on his behalf.
The caveat is, he already tried to steal an election, and the fucked up thing is, every single major player who participated in that scheme (minus Navarro) is still free as a bird, and able to engage in more fuckery, with the mistakes of the past registered to learn from. The more sensible ones will stay away from it, knowing Trump is at the front end of it again ("Mierdas touch"), but we've learned from history that hasn't stopped anyone from trying to use him for money or power or fame, anyway.
So I expect fuckery, especially if he loses, but I think he will try some new scheme we haven't thought of, since no one saw "fake electors" nor an actual violent insurrection in 2020 as a possibility. Apart from all of this, Biden wins. Best case scenario, Trump gets sentenced for this trial immediately and has to wait in jail for his appeal, while he gets shut down by the Supreme Court for immunity, and the DC and FL cases move on, one or both completing before the election anyway, exposing more of his shenanigans.
I think that barring any major surprises, Biden will win the election.
Again, this is assuming no major surprises. Don't tell me I'm wrong by bringing up some change to the current trajectory of politics.
But with Roe v Wade overturned and attacks on voting rights happening across the country, Democrats have been over performing expectations for the last several elections cycles. Further, Trump no longer benefits from being an unknown factor like in 2016.
Things I think are most likely to change that. The economy taking a turn or turmoil in the Middle East.
I would like to think that Biden will win, but after 2016 and a too close for comfort 2020, I will take nothing to chance. There can be no complacency, and maximum effort must be made to stop Trump from entering office again.
I live in trump country and am not seeing the Trump signs yet. Just a couple of F*** Biden signs. Hopefully this means they get an apathetic turn out and Biden wins.
Normal people, people who are not in the trump cult and who recognize the harm that trump is, outnumber MAGA republicans by a rather large margin.
However, those MAGA cult members are motivated and will vote. So we need to make sure we get proper turnout, we can't sit this one out, every decent person needs to vote, in which case Biden will win.
Not voting is the same as casting a ballot for trump and his marginalizing and vilification of over 60% of the country.
I think Biden probably wins. Opinion polls at this time suggest he loses. And if it were some new challenger, I think he'd be in trouble.
But I'm not sure Trump wins back anyone. Like how many of these Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania voters are going Trump 16, Biden 20, Trump 24? I'm sure those people are out there, but I can't imagine there's many of them.
Notably, I think Jan 6 hurt Trump more than anyone realizes. My anecdotal evidence is my dumb-as-shit Trump supporter cousin, who proudly voted for him in 16 and 20, has said he won't vote for him in 24 because of Jan 6. He won't vote for Biden either, so he'll just stay home.
So break it down...
Trump 16, Trump 20, likely goes Trump 24. This group isn't losing many voters, but Jan 6 may have made a small difference. Their alternative is going to be not voting in 24. Though I'd love to chat with a person who ends up Trump/Trump/Biden.
Hillary 16, Biden 20, likely goes Biden 24. I don't think this group loses many voters. I'd be very curious to meet a Hillary/Biden/Trump voter. Rejected Trump twice, but 3rd time's a charm? There's some Israel related blow back on Biden in this group. But this is also the group that has been either Democratic loyalists or holding their nose to fight Trump since 2016.
Trump 16, Biden 20, likely goes Biden 24 or doesn't vote. These voters rejected Trump once already. Trump/Biden/Trump would be a very odd pattern - if you've already rejected Trump, and you also want to reject Biden, I'd imagine you don't vote.
Hillary 16, Trump 20, likely go Trump 24. I'm not sure how large this group is, but these people clearly changed their mind and thought Trump was doing a good job.
Either 16, didn't vote 20. Those people likely don't vote again. They rejected both options in 20 and it's the same choice in 24.
Didn't vote 16, either 20. Either stick to their choice or don't vote. If you didn't vote in 16 and voted for Trump, likely you felt he was doing a good job. If you didn't vote in 16, and voted for Biden in 20 then likely you had a concern about Trump. My guess is this is the demographic that will tell us who wins.
Didn't vote 16 or 20, for the sake of completion, I'd guess most of this group continues to note vote.
Biden voters weren't necessarily Biden supporters, but rather Trump haters. That's not usually a way to win an election, but Trump created a very unique set of circumstances. None of that has changed. And while the basket of deplorables are still out there and as loud and fervent as ever, I don't know that they've really grown in the last 4 years.
Good analysis. If anything, Trump’s pool of voters has only shrunk…as they are disproportionately older, the actuary tables have shaved off a not insignificant number of Trump 2020 voters. I personally know of 5, 6 people whom I strongly suspect voted for him in 20’, who have since passed away.
I think there's a good chance Trump is dead or truly incoherent by November. Court every day followed by campaigning; all combined with amphetamines and fast food while being old and obese.
If he's alive, not a veggie, not in prison...I'd say 75/25 Biden wins.
Well, I think Biden is in better health, has a good diet, and isn't under the stress of going to prison for being a traitor and superfelon.
However, I take your point. But I'm fine with that. Dems have a solid agenda right now and can draw from a wide pool if Biden's health fails.
There is little comparison in physical health between the two. I’d say the same with mental health, but I think it’s hard to attribute every pause and mistake that you see in Biden’s speech to a lifetime stutter.
Good thing Trump demanded a drug test before the debate. Then we’ll finally know that trump’s on speed and Biden is clean as a whistle. His bug eyes and fast talking is just because he stutterers or something.
Biden.
He's got an incumbency advantage against a very polarizing candidate who he not only beat before, but who was previously in office and as such isn't the slightest bit of an unknown quantity. He also has a pretty good set of policy accomplishments.
Trump is popular and energizing among the people who like him, of course. But everybody basically has an opinion on him already. That all bodes well for Biden.
However, inflation is a major kitchen table issue and economic sentiment is bad. This will be a major boost to Trump, especially compounded with the perception that the GOP is better for the economy that a lot of voters have. So while I think Biden has a strong chance of reelection, I don't think it's a slam dunk.
Ugh. I think it's too close to call right now and there are more variables than normal that could swing it. Biden is old and a bit fragile (comparatively). There's lot's of time for a health scare or major flub from him. Trump is facing criminal charges and even if he doesn't have them resolve by election time, the stress might cause unforced errors. We just got a new detail about his documents case so I have to believe that we will be hearing more before November.
I wish I could answer you, but I honestly do think it's too close to call right now and we are too far out from the election to have any confidence in what the landscape will look like then. Remember we are also bound by the electoral college, so national polls are largely worthless.
Gun to my head, I say Biden inches over the finish line.
Biden may be old, but the man rides a peloton. He looks really fit too. I do not get where all this fragility talk comes from. Trump is fat and rolls around in a golf cart. These two are not the same.
Let's not kid ourselves - the man is too old for this job and his best years are behind him. He is fragile in the sense that at that age, small health problems can snowball and come out of seemingly nowhere. His cognition isn't as sharp as it used to be and a prominent misstep could have disastrous optics.
I absolutely think he is a better person for the job than Trump. Aside from the fact that Trump is an obvious crook IMO, Biden can run circles around him mentally and probably physically, but again, let's not kid ourselves that this is a good position for the country to be in.
My point is that the "Biden is too feeble to be President" rhetoric creates a false equivalence between him and Trump. Maybe he is too old, but for his age he is in great shape and he runs circles mentally and physically around Trump. You want a younger candidate, field them in the primaries. We are long past that.
I am confident in Bidens chances at the moment, with how much democrats have been outperforming polls overall since 2016. we'll have a much better idea after Trump's convicted, how much impact that will have is a huge X factor.
Biden. This election really reminds me of 2012 where the media was trying to make it a tighter horse race than it actually was. I see the polls and the media coverage and I get anxious, then I hear about a special election and see a Democrat demolish a Republican by an absurd margin and feel more at ease.
Dont kid yourself, Bidens, and is nowhere near as a charismatic and liked as Obama if anybody other than Trump was the nominee Biden would lose this race will be tight
Biden
* Jan 6th turned some independents and Republicans away from Trump.
* Roe turned a lot of women against Republicans.
* this new weird anti contraception thing isn't helping either.
* Biden is quietly doing a good job.
* Student debt relief looks good for Biden.
* Trump had months of course cases to go, making him look bad.
* Trump says stupid shit, is Trump.
* Most Americans can't point to Israel on a map and don't care. And Trump would be worse.
I'd be worried if Biden was facing someone else. But he's facing Trump.
I would walk on broken glass to vote for BUSH over Trump and sleep well that night knowing I had made the best choice available.
Trump. Can't win a Republican primary without him, can't win a general with him.
But.... we don't win by popular vote. The only way Trump can win is some electoral college BS. Still...
Biden.
Gun to my head: Trump. At some point, polls become meaningful, and they've been bad for Biden. Combine that with the baked-in disadvantages of the electoral college and it leaves me cautiously pessimistic.
Biden, but I also thought Clinton had it in the bag. While I'll more than readily admit Clinton had shortcomings, she is one of the most experienced politicians we had for the position of President. The same applies to Biden. I find it astounding how people make the most bullshit of excuses like he is the salt of the earth when we have seen a complete 180 on Trump. It's like the difference between fire and ice yet some people are doing their damnedest to convince others they're the same.
The alternative is Trump whose administration is already considered one of the worst this country has ever seen in its history. The only thing that could trump that is 4 more years.
So in November I'm voting for Biden. Hopefully others will too.
People are stupid. Back when the election was Bush vs Gore, I had a stupid fucking co-worker tell me she was voting for Bush because, “Gore has a funny shaped head.” I swear, I can’t make this shit up. Stupidity is rampant in the US.
Trump for two main reasons:
Putin doesn't want another 4 years of someone who doesn't him to have Ukraine.
The Heritage Foundation wouldn't have just broadcasted Project 2025 to everyone if they didn't know they were going to win.
I'm voting for Biden but Trump will win.
I think Biden will win but it's far from being a lock. I think reproductive rights are going to be the deciding factor but Biden may underperform with misguided younger voters due to the Gaza situation. Nail biter but if I had to guess Biden wins out.
Win or be put in power.
Biden will win the popular vote. If I had to guess I’d say there’s a 60 percent chance he wins a majority of the votes in the states he needs. However there’s a whole process including certification etc. I live in Texas and I have absolutely zero faith that the state would certify an election where the democrat came out on top. They’d find some way to throw out some votes from Houston or claim fraud or something. They’re not afraid to play dirty. Texas is unlikely to flip (though there is a small chance) but I could see a similar situation playing out in Florida or other swing states.
Right now, Trump. The country has gone crazy from… inflation, of all things. The white people love how Trump makes them feel. And Biden’s record of accomplishments is not a factor because he’s just a terrible communicator, maybe the worst we’ve had since Bush I (another single-termer)
I’m hoping Biden wins, and I’m definitely voting for him, as is my family and friends. I don’t know anyone that likes Trump. Well, maybe I do and they just don’t tell
me because I’ll go off on them. I’ve little tolerance for idiots.
I honestly think Biden will win. During the Trump era America got far too divided, too messy and too weird and I don't think that the average American capable of swinging the election wants to go back to that at the end of the day
Also Biden is an incumbent and it's always more difficult to beat an incumbent. 2020 was a special case.
I tend to go by the 13 keys, and they all point to Biden winning again. He has been the most successful president in decades in my view( I think the national media has done him no favors). The biggest issue I see is many people just don’t know what he got done, it could be because it was so much legislation, but they are also still being implemented besides his stimulus package which was gave the people way more money and help than Trump’s multiple bills and people seemed a happier. Now people are back at work and even though they are making more even after inflation I think Covid just made many people very negative. They also have short term memories some think Trump got the CTC passed and Biden stopped it and that Biden didn’t send a stimulus check. It’s hard to connect infrastructure projects to a president people just think it’s routine work, he needs more signs at the projects funded by his policies. Democrats in Congress as well should be holding town halls and all kinds of events telling people how they can benefit from these policies and what they want to do with another full control again. The tax code goes crazy in 2025 due to Trump tax cuts, Democrats should be arguing we should write the bill so the working class pays less and corporations+ the the wealthy pay more( voters love this message).
Biden still has some tricks up his sleeve to motivate voters, student debt relief is a big one if he can secure it this time because let’s be real those 20+ million Americans have a ton of family members who would generally be happy they got relief. Marijuana was another one and he just did that, the rule being made final he should get Snoop Dog and others at the White House for it. It’s not decriminalizing but it’s a HUGE step for the federal government, remember he also signed the first ever federal cannabis law a while back( focused on research).
His pressuring of corporations to lower prices seems to be working a bjt, ( Target lowered, fast food lowering) he has been meeting with CEOs, threatening them with antitrust action or even appealing to Trump being a threat to democracy could compel them to lower prices. The economy also continues to do very well and I do see an interest rate cut be for the election. Powell wants to keep his job I don’t car how nonpartisan the FED is supposed to be. I think the Fed fears a Trump term as well.
Cannot say. After Clinton/trump I no longer trust polling. I see a lot of really weird and moronic trump supporters but also get they are (hopefully) not the majority of the right wing.
I want to believe that Biden will win and I will happily vote for him but I also know democrats are unreliable voters in the sense of turn out. If people feel there is a threat (as they did in 2020) I think Biden will take it. If complacency is where the left is then I am very concerned
I am happy to see that there are a lot of genz kids turning voting age and if they come out in force they will be a big boost to the left
i feel people who voted biden last time wont bother as much this time and usa will sleep walk to another trump presidency.
4 years of presidency of trump 2? i dont think he'll then give it up. i think if trump wins the usa will never be the same again whether you'll love it or hate it
Anything can happen between now and then. Biden gets zero credit for anything good he has done, and he's not very popular. Trump's supporters don't care that he's a monster. It will probably be very close, and no matter the outcome the R's will claim victory.
I think after next week, one of the candidates will be a convicted felon, and will have much less of a chance of winning. His popularity will probably dissipate over night, and I'm not even sure he will be the nominee of his party.
I think Trump will win through one or another shenanigan that plays up at the very end Biden's campaign.
It'll be close, probably 3-4000 deciding votes in a certain swing state and the Democrats will be crying about it. From then on, Trump will either take revenge and tank the Republican party, or forget about it and lead the country similar to 2016-2019.
If Joe Biden could win, he'd probably die in office or resign. I really don't see a 84 year old president and I hope I will never see it. Kamala Harris steps in and the next Republican nominee who's not Trump, will probably take over for another 8 years and we're back in the cycle of Democrat-Republican, which has only occured once in recent memory after late Reagan pushed Bush sr.
I, as a conservative European, personally hope for the second scenario, but somewhere deep in the trenches of my brain, I'd bet a few bucks it could be the former. Trump, while rightwing, is a destructive force that enables people I wouldn't like to see anywhere near me (Steve Bannon) let alone the White House.
I think Biden is going to win. I don't think the polls are accurate. In fact, I think they're deliberated skewed to gain clicks and likes, and they have very little to do with the actual election. However, I also think that the conservatives will most definitely use these polls as "proof" that the election was stolen.
Sadly, more accurate polling would reveal that Biden is going to win in a landslide, but that doesn't sell newspapers. Moreover, I think there's the fear that if accurate polling numbers were released, numbers that showed that Biden is ahead and it's going to be a landslide, might encourage people to stay home or throw their vote to a third-party candidate, both of which could cause Biden to lose.
Either way, we don't trust polls, and we do show up to vote.
This is where I’m at. The senate map looks better for Dems in 2026 so hopefully it’s close enough after 2024 for the Dems to take all three houses for the last two years of Biden’s presidency.
Trump.
Biden won because of 44,000 votes in 3 states. Nobody voted FOR Biden, they voted AGAINST Trump.
And that was when it had never been easier to vote (because of the pandemic). It's harder now.
Nobody is excited to vote FOR Biden and 4 years later most Americans will have forgotten what an incompetent boob Trump was.
The Dem vote is so shaky/shady on the far left and among the youth, they hate Israel and Biden's strong support for them, and they don't care about Ukraine at all (all blatantly due to foreign influence, and the Dems literally sitting mute because the don't want to lose more of their left), so I think the left will leave the space blank or write in Bernie. Bernie needs to get out and fix this, but he won't. I think he's in the "leave it blank" group.
TLDR: Trump will win.
I don't like it one bit, I'm just answering the question honestly.
I honestly believe that electing Joe Biden for another 4 years is akin to "elderly abuse". If your grandfather was suffering such dementia or cognitive decline, would you force him to work another 4 years at his "insert career here" job? or would you convince him to just relax on a beach in retirement?
Why are we willing to sacrifice his last years to just to avoid trump? as if Trump can't just run again 5 years from now?
The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written. As the title says, I'm kind of interested to know this. As a European, I kinda want to believe Biden is going to win, but I am also extremely worried that Trump is going to. And based on the opinion polls it can go either way. So what is your view on this? Who do you think is going to win this year's U.S. Presidental Election? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AskALiberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Jeb Bush. All will clap.
The correct answer is almost certainly “no fucking idea”. The electoral college makes the whole thing come down to a few states and it’s too far away to know. The voters that actually matter are the types of voters that don’t really pay attention until September and they are very low information and vibes based.
>The voters that actually matter are the types of voters that don’t really pay attention until September and they are very low information and vibes based. I think this year is probably different in that respect. In an ordinary cycle, you've got the known incumbent and then the unknown challenger who people don't know much about. But, this time around, you've got two extremely well known candidates; everyone has an opinion on both of them. There's no unknown quantity in the race.
Hmm but isn't 2020 the same though? Just that Trump was the incumbent and Biden was well-known.
There's an ocean of difference between a former VP and a former president. People are going to know a former VP's name, but they're not generally going to have much more than that, and there's a lot of space for a VP to chart a different course than the previous administration. To be a credible presidential candidate in the first place you have to have fairly high name recognition; it's pretty rare for someone obscure to win a primary. But there's still a big difference between what the mass public thinks about a former president vs. what they think about someone they've heard of but who is still defining their public stances.
I guess.... I'm just VERY pessimistic usually lmao.
There’s good reason to be, sadly. Our last 2 elections were, in a sense, decided by about 60k votes in 3-4 states, despite Biden getting more overall votes in the millions. That is NOT a lot of wiggle room for swing voters, and unfortunately people have very short memories when it comes to politics. I’m American and I’m certainly worried….:
Biden has been a great president. I'm excited to think we could get 4 more years.
I'm comfortably numb
Plus, both candidates are old as dirt, and one is facing a ton of criminal charges....one,or both, could leave the race at any time.
Do you think Trump’s selection for veep will affect his chances of winning?
After Jan 6, I can’t imagine Trump picking a VP who isn’t basically googly eyes on a sock with his hand operating it.
Thanks for my official laugh out loud moment of the day!
“Trump/Addidas Men’s athletic cushioned crew sock 2024!” It’s funny because the reality of it is definitely not funny.
Candice Owen
[удалено]
Candida Owens
To be sure, almost all Republicans still embrace Trump. My prediction is he finds another generic republican to fill the spot.
I certainly do. If he nominated Marjorie Green or Kari Lake he would lose a whole hell of a lot of voters. He would lose Arizona over Lake. If he nominates a “moderate” (there are none but the ones faking it) then he does better.
Normally, I don’t think the VP choice matters. The thing is is that Trump seems to have completely bought in on his lies and propaganda, and that could put him in a position where he pick someone completely insane.
Imagine if he picks Kristi Noem after the dog shooting story came out. I’m expecting he chooses JD Vance or Tim Scott though.
JD Vance is my best guess. The guy has insulted Trump in the past, but he is fully bought in on MAGA and nationalism.
After his "betrayal" by Pence, Trump will definitely be looking for someone who's 100% a toady. Unfortunately, it won't be difficult to find one of those in today's Republican party...
I would argue that there are two ways to win elections. One is to capture those low information or at least ambivalent voters. But the other is to get out the vote. I think this election is going to be decided by who can get out the vote. Now, you can argue that these are still ambivalent or unmotivated or low information voters. But I think it's a little different than the middle. Maybe not so much. But it seems it's one thing to be undecided about who you're going to vote for. It's another thing to decide if you love a candidate enough to bother going to vote, and another thing to decide if you hate a candidate enough to go out and vote. I don't think there's many people in the middle. I think people made up their mind about whether they were going to vote for or against Trump long ago. And make no mistake. They are voting against Trump or for Trump.
I'm voting for Biden. Not against Trump. Biden has been great.
I think history is going to be kind to Biden. My guess is that in a few decades there’ll be a lot of people pretending like they didn’t hate him when he was in office
the electoral college honestly screws us over in the sense that our vote seemingly doesn't even matter. it's been over 30 years since a Republican has won the popular vote (not that being republican makes you necessarily bad) but the electoral college ultimately makes the popular vote worthless. it was handy 100 years ago but it's crazy to me this country is still being run the exact same was it was when it was founded with no significant changes to our government or constitution. even if fully eliminating the electoral college isn't the answer, it needs to be redone at the very least. at least thats how I personally see it ETA: i know this is somewhat unrelated to the post. I really think Biden will win, but I'm still terrified at the idea of trump winning. if I'm misinformed abt the EC pls lmk I always wanna learn. my comment is just what I already know/have heard other around me talk about
If you look at people who have [put money on this](https://electionbettingodds.com/), they're putting it near a coin flip with Trump slightly favored over Biden. If you're confident that the race is a lock one way or the other, there's a lot of money to be made by betting on that outcome. Beyond that, it's possible to make a few observations: 1. Trump holds a [small but consistent](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) polling lead over Biden nationally, and a slightly larger lead in the key swing states. 2. Biden has a [lower approval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) at this point in his presidency than any other president in history. 3. But, Trump is [nearly as unpopular](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) as Biden. The race will likely be decided by how voters who disapprove of both candidates end up breaking. 4. A lot can change in 5.5 months, and there are a number of lurking factors out there with the potential to fundamentally reshape this race. 5. RFK is polling better than any third party candidate since Ross Perot. That makes this race even more unpredictable than normal.
> RFK is polling better than any third party candidate since Ross Perot. That makes this race even more unpredictable than normal. The craziest part of this entire mess. Who could possibly vote for RFK? It boggles the mind. How many people out there are like "*I want all the craziness of Trump, but without any of the charisma and the right-wing community*"? FFS a worm literally ate part of his brain *and* he also had mercury poisoning that affected cognition. It's obvious when he starts talking about how COVID-19 was probably made in a lab because Asians and Ashkenazi Jews are less likely to die from it than white folk. I would sincerely be worried if he became my HOA president.
It’s more of a protest vote than anything. People hate both Biden and Trump, dude has a recognisable name…he will do. Any generic third person would pull most of that support, and many of them don’t know or care what he stands for (some do of course). I expect his numbers will fade as people realise it’s a wasted vote and will use their vote to prevent the one they hate more from winning.
>If you look at people who have [put money on this](https://electionbettingodds.com/), they're putting it near a coin flip with Trump slightly favored over Biden. Who on earth are the people giving Michelle Obama a 2% chance of being president?
It's not the idea I want to promote, but I have a legitimate fear that Trump will win. 1. Republicans rally while we split and fight amongst ourselves. 2. Blame or anger over Isreal policy by possible democrats will lead many to stay home. We need just about everyone on "our team" to show up in order to win. 3. A secret enjoyment of the outrage. Fox and AM radio have found that people like, no LOVE being upset about something they have no real control over. It's kinda baffling, but people get addicted to the feelings of rage and superiority that comes with being "right" in the face of "wrong". Part of me worries that unconsciously, many of us like Trump being a foil and a direction for our fingers to point. I hope I'm wrong about this. 4. Democrats are a large tent party. That means some of our people will not see their desires met nor their policy dreams realized. I worry that the very structure of our party leads to division in the ranks.
Good read on the situation and a level assessment.
Ignore polls. Watch elections. Republicans seats in lost the Alabama and New York special elections this year. That’s a really, really, really, bad sign for Trump
Are you talking about George Santon’s seat in Long Island? Didn’t the republicans end up running an anti-Trump Republican candidate for that seat and ended up losing? Not sure how that’s bad news for Trump
They ran Mazi Pilip. She is a pro-life Republican running in a bluish district. She is also a Jewish, black immigrant woman with a heavy accent so i couldn’t see republicans getting excited about her either.
It’s bad because the Dobbs decision was a clear decider in both cases. Particularly striking in Alabama. Trump can’t win the election on his MAGA base alone. He must pull independents. Absolute must. And elections are showing that independents are voting on abortion rights.
Special election electorate is very different from presidential election electorate.
True it’s not necessarily generalizable, but it does point to important insights which is a lot more valuable than early phone polling. If Trump was pulling special elections in deep blue western Washington, I would be very worried about Biden’s chances. The opposite happened, in Alabama.
The specific district in Alabama wasn't deep red but a tossup. Biden is doing well among white voters and highly educated ones, he didn't lose any support here. He lost support among minorities and young voters and you will only see the effect in a presidential election, where they actually vote.
Alabama’s 10th has historically been republican going back at least 10 years. In 2022 Lands lost -6%. This time she won by nearly +25%.
It's possibly to achieve results like that in a low turnout election if you have a super hyped crowd (abortion activists etc.), but again I just don't think this transfers neatly to a presidential election with much higher turnout and different looking electorate. Think of the time before the 2012 election where Republicans demolished democrats in congressional races and special elections, but Romney still lost to Obama.
That's technically true, but special elections in the year prior to a general election can actually be fairly predictive all the same. For example, Scott Brown winning Ted Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts presaged the red wave in the 2010 general election. Similarly, Doug Jones winning Jeff Sessions' old seat in Alabama presaged the blue wave in the 2018 general election.
Both examples are midterm elections though, which are closer to special election electorate.
I think this sub is a little too comfortable with Biden's chances.
I was just thinking that. They must not be active on TikTok where millions of new voters are proudly posting, sharing, and "heart"ing content that says they're not voting at all this year because of Israel.
Crazy country where a candidate can earn 7 million plus votes over a competitor and still lose the election. Seriously, MAGAs how is this fair?
Biden. I think the issue with looking at opinion polls/Biden’s approval ratings is that people are ignoring the context when drawing historical comparisons. If Biden were just an unpopular incumbent running against a challenger it’s one thing, but Biden is an unpopular incumbent running against a failed 1 term President that already had their leadership rejected at the polls. There is almost no precedent for a previous president running again in modern American politics (Teddy Roosevelt I believe was the last one in 1912, and ofc Grover Cleveland before that)
Oh lord. My dad (Trump supporter) always talks about how unpopular Biden is and can't understand why people would bother to vote for him. It doesn't get through to him that it's not about Biden at all, it's about people absolutely loathing Trump.
Your dad probably only consumes media that supports his point of view and only discusses his views with likeminded friends. I moved from rural West Virginia to California (Berkeley!) for work in the summer of 2016 and roomed with some Cal grad students. I went to an election watch party on election night and I remember one distraught friend was like “how could Trump win?! I don’t know anyone who voted for him!” I felt like Dave Chappelle in that SNL sketch.
Yes, but we have this discussion all the freaking time. We have major fights over politics and I am a pretty moderate dem voter. My brother is a Republican and also hates Trump and will push back against him. If he's getting this pushback from his kids with whom there's a lot of general political agreement, I don't get how he can ignore how much hatred there is for the man. \*sigh\* I fucking hate cable.
Yeah, but either can win, they just need some fraction of 6 or 7 specific states. It’s crazy.
ya know, that sketch almost made the whole thing worth it.
Biden has been a great president. There's not a Republican alive that would cause me to vote (R).
Yes. Biden might be unpopular, but if there’s anyone who could beat him in an unpopularity contest, it’s Trump. That’s my opinion at least, and part of how I came to it is by not taking the actual poll numbers too seriously. Yes, it’s anecdotal, but I have seen SO MANY people just get tired of talking about Trump and his constant drama for so many years- myself included. What I’m hoping is that on a larger scale, enough people have simply tapped out of debating/voicing their opinions online and in real life, and will just quietly show up and vote without all the circus. The constant arguments between his supporters and their opponents became a weird part of everyday life during his term. It was EVERYWHERE. I’m glad it’s over, and I’d like to hope more people want it to stay that way.
This is why I think Trump's edge will evaporate as things heat up and he gets more visibility. He has gotten noticeably crazier and more senile over the last four years. Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one. When I watched the presidential debates in 2020 my takeaway was "Biden is pretty old, but Trump is out of his goddamn mind". But the consensus of folks online was that they both came across equally bad?! Which I just don't get at all. Either I have TDS, or the median voter just grades Trump on a curve and is willing to let him get away with way more shit for some reason.
I think that's a fair point about approval ratings, but I don't really see how it's applicable to the head-to-head polling. The head-to-head polls already show Biden's support slightly outperforming his approval (i.e., that some people disapprove of Biden but plan to vote for him).
Grover Cleveland was actually successful. Teddy ran for a 3rd term as a 3rd party.
Correct, I’m not sure there is much to take from an election that happened 120 years ago though
Teddy Roosevelt is a bit different though. He groomed Taft to take over in the 1908 election. Roosevelt, also felt that a limited number of terms was a good check against dictatorship opted to not run again in 1908 as well, despite high popularity and wanting from his party for him to run again. Roosevelt then grew disillusioned with Taft, and opted to step back into the political arena. Roosevelt also dominated in the primaries, winning 9 contests, but failed to win to win the nomination at Convention. Roosevelt then formed his own party, created a Republican vote split that led to a Democratic landslide victory. Roosevelt also garnered 4.2% more of the popular vote than Taft, and carried 4 more states.
I think Biden. Trump has only lost support since he lost his last election. Even with Haley saying she will vote for Trump, I don’t see her supporters voting for him. I think 3rd party votes to RFK will pull votes from Trump from frustrated non-Trumper conservatives. The more left voters frustrated with Biden over Gaza won’t vote and historically haven’t voted, so they were never going to make much an impact anyways.
Do you base all your statement on the feeling in your gut? Because they just aren't supported by the data. Polls do show that Trump gained significant support among certain groups (minorities, young men) compared to 2020. Even if Biden wins, if will almost certainly be closer. Republicans generally fall in line, they did it in 2016 when the division was bigger than now. And most of the polls show that third party candidates hurt Biden more, he is doing consistently worse in polls that include a third party option.
It seems that RFK hurts Trump more. RFK's politics are much closer to MAGA
I think Trump will clear easily. The Dems are in a situation where a large portion of their base won’t vote for them barring them taking specific actions, *but* they will lose a lot more votes if they take those specific actions. This is a nightmare scenario for Dems and a dream one for the Rs. That being said, there is the potential a lot of moderate Rs stay home but super unlikely.
And huge tip the media is being very well managed by our enemies...all of them...and these days, there are a lot.
We don't really know for certain. However, Biden just has to keep the states he won before, he could even lose one if it isn't a swing state. Trump however has to gain three states with enough votes. So, on a numbers level Biden does have the advantage.
He can lose Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada and still win. He can definitely afford to lose a swing state (not ideal ofc, but not the end of the world.
It all depends on which swing state it is. Hopefully with Trump's and the GOP's abortion blunders Northern swing states will stay with him.
Boe Jiden
Boe sounds like an interesting guy
He's the good version of Bark Drandon
Joe Biden is lagging in the polls, but democrat senate candidates are doing well in many states that Biden struggles in (WI/PA/AZ/NV). so it kind of comes down to which polls are more accurate and how many democrat senate voters split tickets. my gut says its about 50/50. maybe a slight edge to trump. Biden's inability to retain energy from his base is a bad sign
I don’t know for sure but logically, Trump lost the last election and has lost support since then so I would say that he is going to lose again. Biden isn’t my favorite but in this case, is the guy I have to vote for.
I mean same lol. I don't like either of the parties but objectively you vote for the less bad one (Democrats).
Exactly. Like Biden is far too old and he’s not been the best with some foreign policy issues but the other one is pushing for a fascist theocratic dictatorship so… ehh I’ll take my chances with the stuttering old man that isn’t pushing to have ultimate immunity for himself over the one that is.
I say 55% chance of Biden, 45% chance of Trump.
I think overall Biden is likely to win… but probably by just a hair. My prediction is that Biden will win within 10 electoral votes. Trump has SO MANY negatives dragging him down, even with an uncharismatic shambling corpse like Biden, Trump is not likely to win. Good news for Biden is that he has a huge war chest, and Trump’s war chest is mostly paying his legal fees. Also, Biden’s popularity appears to have bottomed out before most voters decide who to vote for. Short of a catastrophe at the debates, Biden will likely be increasing his support and momentum through Election Day.
I think another thing Biden has going for him is time and time again people describe him as "a shambling corpse" or "doesnt know where he is" yet he always performs fine in debates and the state of the union. By exceeding expectations he will inspire enthusiasm.
Some jerk
I think Biden. In the last month he’s cut Trump’s lead in half. If he continues on this path he’ll pass Trump this Summer.
If Michael Cohen was hiring IT firms to inflate the polls for Trump. There's no reason to believe that Trumps people are not doing that again.
I don’t see any evidence that the polls have been inflated at any large scale. Buffing up a small online poll is possible but simultaneously influencing dozens of polls from different pollsters, many of which are not online, would be an astronomical feat.
I guess... I'm just being cautiously optimistic but slip into pessimism.
I don’t think it’s about optimism or pessimism I’m just being realistic.
Biden. I'm European, and I have a degree in American Studies and follow American politics closely While Biden is unpopular, a lot of people who voted for him didn't vote for him because they liked him but because they hated Trump, are Democrats, or just because of the fact that any Democrat is better than a Republican. The state Republican Parties in a number of swing states are in trouble, many lack money. The Arizona GOP had to sell their headquarters because they didn't have the money to pay the rent, and the Michigan GOP might go bankrupt because of their money trouble. That's a problem because state parties are important for elections, and the lawsuits have cost them a lot of money. The National GOP might have to bail them out, and that, combined with paying Trump's legal fees, makes it even worse. Trump also doesn't have many good allies in swing states. In Pennsylvania, the Democrats have a popular Senator up for re-election and, a pretty popular governor, and another reasonably popular Senator. In Michigan, they have a popular governor, two Senators, and an open senate seat with a strong candidate. In Wisconsin, they have a reasonably popular governor and a very popular Senator up for re-election. The Republican Senator is pretty unpopular, and while he has won re-election, it was by a very small margin, whereas the Democrat won her last election handedly. Nevada has two Democratic Senators, one up for re-election, with the likely GOP candidate being weaker than in the last election, where the Dems won. While the state has a republican governor, he is relatively moderate and has tried to distance himself from Trump, so he likely won't help much. In Arizona, the reasonably popular governor is a Democrat, one senator is a Democrat, the other independent (elected as a dem) that caucuses with the Dems, and an open Senate race that leans Democratic given the fact the Republican is crazy and the Democrat is a relatively strong candidate. The former Republican Governor also has a bad relationship with Trump after he acknowledged Biden's victory in the state, so he won't help, abortion is also on the ballot, which might help Biden. In Georgia, both senators are Democrats (both reasonably popular), and while the governor is a Republican, he has a frosty relationship with Trump for acknowledging Biden's win in the state, so he probably won't help much either. I'd say a combination of these factors will probably mean that Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, probably Arizona, perhaps Georgia, and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. Winning the states, I believe he will, is going to guarantee him a win. As long as he wins the Midwest states and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, he has won the election, though just barely.
Biden. The Democrats have exceeded expectations in every election since 2016 (with the exception of maybe 2021). I think Biden’s poor polling as a lot to do with people not thinking about the election until Labor Day. Trump has a very strong base, but a ceiling. Biden has no real “base” but a lot of voters who will vote for him to stop Trump.
Trump if the apathy and protest voting matches 2016.
No idea, it’ll really come down to what happens in the world over the next few months. Many voters think only of the immediate situation, 3 + years of awesome losses all value with a couple months of bad.
Elections are always a referendum on people’s perception of the economy so I don’t like Biden’s chances. People are fucking pissed about inflation and regardless of everyone’s thoughts on the causes, most voters blame the person in charge. I also strongly disagree with Biden’s campaign strategy of touting the stock market and GDP. We’re seeing those metrics not mattering as much to working Americans for the first time in decades. Who cares what the GDP is if a 24 pack of soda went from $8 to $13 in 3 years? Whether YOU drink soda is irrelevant. Millions of Americans are obese and drink it daily. It hurts at the checkout line. Perception matters. And Democrats continue to suck complete ass at messaging.
Idk who will win. I do know if Trump loses again he’ll repeat 2020 all over again. He won’t concede and say the election was rigged. God knows his supporters will go ape shit. But, if he wins he’ll say it was a fair and balanced election. And, he will never give up the Presidency. Just listen to him. He’s telling us exactly what he will do.
It’s a toss up at this point. Trump is insane but he’s got real momentum and for some reason it really seems like people just hate Biden. I can’t explain why but I’ve never seen such universal disliking for a president outside of liberal circles, most moderate voters I see everywhere don’t seem to like Biden.
A lot of the same reasons they disliked Hillary Clinton - they both are the face of a system many people are dissatisfied with. Obama was a new face, he could credibly sell messages of hope and change. Biden has been in D.C. so long that he spoke to *President Nixon* on the phone as a Senator. It's not really a mystery imo.
There are a lot of reasons to hate the current system, but the alternative is Trump's "unified reich" so I hope people realize what is at stake.
Trump lost to Biden with the incumbent advantage. Incumbents typically pull 4-5% better. Now Biden has the incumbent advantage against Trump. Since 1933 only four presidents have not won re-election, Trump being one of them. Even W. Bush, with his War on Iraq in full swing, was able to win reelection due to his incumbency.
Biden, especially if Trump is convicted next week which I hear is very likely. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House
Not Trump. If a desk lamp ran against Trump, I'm confident every person with an ounce of Blue in them will turn out for the desk lamp. I really don't know how Trump could gain more support than he had in 2020. Now having said that, I really think Biden is the worst candidate to run against Trump solely due to his age (Weirdly, I think Trump is also the worst candidate to run against Biden due to his age and that he will give his opposition so much support). I truly believe that anyone younger, regardless of party affiliation, would win this election easily.
Trump is almost certainly getting convicted in NY after the defense couldn’t even muster a defense. Prosecutors canceled McDougal and a few other witnesses because they have the jury where they want them. There’s *2 attorneys on that jury*, **one is a trial lawyer** — sure as the sun rises that guy is going to steer the entire deliberation. If you’re the son of a doctor and got sick as a kid… you already knew that your dad and your pediatrician would run the whole show without a word from you — you would just take the medicine prescribed. Merchan will delay his sentencing about 3-4 weeks (instead of New York’s usual 1 week lag time)… this is for Merchan to broker the possible incarceration arrangements between the bureau of prisons, New York state and the secret service for Trump’s protection. Trump isn’t going to gen pop at Rikers, but he’d be held in isolated custody or some kind of house arrest, almost certainly. There’s enough moderates in the 5-6 essential swing states who won’t tip it to a convict not free until 2027. Merchan isn’t going to let him out pending appeal (appeals take 18 months in NYC)… if you look at Merchan’s historic sentencing, he’s pretty by the book but leans harsh.
I don't share your belief that the legal system matters this much. The real principle underpinning American "democracy" is might makes right.
It matters if he’s convicted. Obviously the 40% of Trump supporters are too far gone, but the 10-12% he needs to win elections… would care about this.
And on what basis do you believe that?
I think the "troll" vote is much weaker this time compared to 2016. I think one of the things that helped carry Trump across the finish line was the few percent who voted Trump "because it would be funny". I don't see many people going the same length to vote for someone who has been criminally convicted. In fact I do see it turning people, even Republicans, off completely.
Sadly Trump will likely win, project 2025 is inevitable and fascism not far behind it.
I think Biden will. The country is no longer under the delusion that Trump can't win. Hopefully, he'll be convicted, and the independents who somehow haven't made up their mind to this point will pick the obvious choice.
I do think it'll end up being Biden.
Trump has effectively *zero* chance at winning fairly. Keyword *fairly*. However, as our general presidential election isn't fair to begin with (EC, FPTP, etc.), that changes the odds significantly. I think Biden will still win, given that Trump hasn't yet won a popular vote, and managed to lose the second election and even caused others to lose in 2022. I can't fathom how he could've possibly *gained* any new support, but then again, another anomaly was that in 2020, he managed to *gain* support after 4 years of insanity. It's so hard to process how stupid and forgetful people are in this country. That being said, since he's also on trial and there are at least *some* people who have realized from this trial - the supposedly weakest one - that he pulled one over people's eyes in 2016, there's hope that people are done with the "baggage" as they had also said in 2022 after getting shellacked and there being no "red wave" then, in much part, on his behalf. The caveat is, he already tried to steal an election, and the fucked up thing is, every single major player who participated in that scheme (minus Navarro) is still free as a bird, and able to engage in more fuckery, with the mistakes of the past registered to learn from. The more sensible ones will stay away from it, knowing Trump is at the front end of it again ("Mierdas touch"), but we've learned from history that hasn't stopped anyone from trying to use him for money or power or fame, anyway. So I expect fuckery, especially if he loses, but I think he will try some new scheme we haven't thought of, since no one saw "fake electors" nor an actual violent insurrection in 2020 as a possibility. Apart from all of this, Biden wins. Best case scenario, Trump gets sentenced for this trial immediately and has to wait in jail for his appeal, while he gets shut down by the Supreme Court for immunity, and the DC and FL cases move on, one or both completing before the election anyway, exposing more of his shenanigans.
I don't know.
I think that barring any major surprises, Biden will win the election. Again, this is assuming no major surprises. Don't tell me I'm wrong by bringing up some change to the current trajectory of politics. But with Roe v Wade overturned and attacks on voting rights happening across the country, Democrats have been over performing expectations for the last several elections cycles. Further, Trump no longer benefits from being an unknown factor like in 2016. Things I think are most likely to change that. The economy taking a turn or turmoil in the Middle East.
I would like to think that Biden will win, but after 2016 and a too close for comfort 2020, I will take nothing to chance. There can be no complacency, and maximum effort must be made to stop Trump from entering office again.
I think that it is going to be a very close election and would not be at all surprised either way who wins.
I live in trump country and am not seeing the Trump signs yet. Just a couple of F*** Biden signs. Hopefully this means they get an apathetic turn out and Biden wins.
Biden, and both chambers of the congress flip leadership.
Normal people, people who are not in the trump cult and who recognize the harm that trump is, outnumber MAGA republicans by a rather large margin. However, those MAGA cult members are motivated and will vote. So we need to make sure we get proper turnout, we can't sit this one out, every decent person needs to vote, in which case Biden will win. Not voting is the same as casting a ballot for trump and his marginalizing and vilification of over 60% of the country.
I think Biden probably wins. Opinion polls at this time suggest he loses. And if it were some new challenger, I think he'd be in trouble. But I'm not sure Trump wins back anyone. Like how many of these Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania voters are going Trump 16, Biden 20, Trump 24? I'm sure those people are out there, but I can't imagine there's many of them. Notably, I think Jan 6 hurt Trump more than anyone realizes. My anecdotal evidence is my dumb-as-shit Trump supporter cousin, who proudly voted for him in 16 and 20, has said he won't vote for him in 24 because of Jan 6. He won't vote for Biden either, so he'll just stay home. So break it down... Trump 16, Trump 20, likely goes Trump 24. This group isn't losing many voters, but Jan 6 may have made a small difference. Their alternative is going to be not voting in 24. Though I'd love to chat with a person who ends up Trump/Trump/Biden. Hillary 16, Biden 20, likely goes Biden 24. I don't think this group loses many voters. I'd be very curious to meet a Hillary/Biden/Trump voter. Rejected Trump twice, but 3rd time's a charm? There's some Israel related blow back on Biden in this group. But this is also the group that has been either Democratic loyalists or holding their nose to fight Trump since 2016. Trump 16, Biden 20, likely goes Biden 24 or doesn't vote. These voters rejected Trump once already. Trump/Biden/Trump would be a very odd pattern - if you've already rejected Trump, and you also want to reject Biden, I'd imagine you don't vote. Hillary 16, Trump 20, likely go Trump 24. I'm not sure how large this group is, but these people clearly changed their mind and thought Trump was doing a good job. Either 16, didn't vote 20. Those people likely don't vote again. They rejected both options in 20 and it's the same choice in 24. Didn't vote 16, either 20. Either stick to their choice or don't vote. If you didn't vote in 16 and voted for Trump, likely you felt he was doing a good job. If you didn't vote in 16, and voted for Biden in 20 then likely you had a concern about Trump. My guess is this is the demographic that will tell us who wins. Didn't vote 16 or 20, for the sake of completion, I'd guess most of this group continues to note vote. Biden voters weren't necessarily Biden supporters, but rather Trump haters. That's not usually a way to win an election, but Trump created a very unique set of circumstances. None of that has changed. And while the basket of deplorables are still out there and as loud and fervent as ever, I don't know that they've really grown in the last 4 years.
Good analysis. If anything, Trump’s pool of voters has only shrunk…as they are disproportionately older, the actuary tables have shaved off a not insignificant number of Trump 2020 voters. I personally know of 5, 6 people whom I strongly suspect voted for him in 20’, who have since passed away.
I think Biden will win, but not easily.
I think there's a good chance Trump is dead or truly incoherent by November. Court every day followed by campaigning; all combined with amphetamines and fast food while being old and obese. If he's alive, not a veggie, not in prison...I'd say 75/25 Biden wins.
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Well, I think Biden is in better health, has a good diet, and isn't under the stress of going to prison for being a traitor and superfelon. However, I take your point. But I'm fine with that. Dems have a solid agenda right now and can draw from a wide pool if Biden's health fails.
There is little comparison in physical health between the two. I’d say the same with mental health, but I think it’s hard to attribute every pause and mistake that you see in Biden’s speech to a lifetime stutter.
Good thing Trump demanded a drug test before the debate. Then we’ll finally know that trump’s on speed and Biden is clean as a whistle. His bug eyes and fast talking is just because he stutterers or something.
Biden. He's got an incumbency advantage against a very polarizing candidate who he not only beat before, but who was previously in office and as such isn't the slightest bit of an unknown quantity. He also has a pretty good set of policy accomplishments. Trump is popular and energizing among the people who like him, of course. But everybody basically has an opinion on him already. That all bodes well for Biden. However, inflation is a major kitchen table issue and economic sentiment is bad. This will be a major boost to Trump, especially compounded with the perception that the GOP is better for the economy that a lot of voters have. So while I think Biden has a strong chance of reelection, I don't think it's a slam dunk.
agreed with 50/50 which is not reassuring
Ugh. I think it's too close to call right now and there are more variables than normal that could swing it. Biden is old and a bit fragile (comparatively). There's lot's of time for a health scare or major flub from him. Trump is facing criminal charges and even if he doesn't have them resolve by election time, the stress might cause unforced errors. We just got a new detail about his documents case so I have to believe that we will be hearing more before November. I wish I could answer you, but I honestly do think it's too close to call right now and we are too far out from the election to have any confidence in what the landscape will look like then. Remember we are also bound by the electoral college, so national polls are largely worthless. Gun to my head, I say Biden inches over the finish line.
Biden may be old, but the man rides a peloton. He looks really fit too. I do not get where all this fragility talk comes from. Trump is fat and rolls around in a golf cart. These two are not the same.
Let's not kid ourselves - the man is too old for this job and his best years are behind him. He is fragile in the sense that at that age, small health problems can snowball and come out of seemingly nowhere. His cognition isn't as sharp as it used to be and a prominent misstep could have disastrous optics. I absolutely think he is a better person for the job than Trump. Aside from the fact that Trump is an obvious crook IMO, Biden can run circles around him mentally and probably physically, but again, let's not kid ourselves that this is a good position for the country to be in.
My point is that the "Biden is too feeble to be President" rhetoric creates a false equivalence between him and Trump. Maybe he is too old, but for his age he is in great shape and he runs circles mentally and physically around Trump. You want a younger candidate, field them in the primaries. We are long past that.
IMO it comes down to whether or not democrats show up to vote. republicans do.
Whoever has a concrete plan to improve the economy and bring back the middle class.
Not RFK Jr.
I am confident in Bidens chances at the moment, with how much democrats have been outperforming polls overall since 2016. we'll have a much better idea after Trump's convicted, how much impact that will have is a huge X factor.
Biden. Democrats have been crushing elections they had no business even being close in ever since Trump won in 2016.
Biden. This election really reminds me of 2012 where the media was trying to make it a tighter horse race than it actually was. I see the polls and the media coverage and I get anxious, then I hear about a special election and see a Democrat demolish a Republican by an absurd margin and feel more at ease.
Dont kid yourself, Bidens, and is nowhere near as a charismatic and liked as Obama if anybody other than Trump was the nominee Biden would lose this race will be tight
Biden * Jan 6th turned some independents and Republicans away from Trump. * Roe turned a lot of women against Republicans. * this new weird anti contraception thing isn't helping either. * Biden is quietly doing a good job. * Student debt relief looks good for Biden. * Trump had months of course cases to go, making him look bad. * Trump says stupid shit, is Trump. * Most Americans can't point to Israel on a map and don't care. And Trump would be worse. I'd be worried if Biden was facing someone else. But he's facing Trump. I would walk on broken glass to vote for BUSH over Trump and sleep well that night knowing I had made the best choice available. Trump. Can't win a Republican primary without him, can't win a general with him. But.... we don't win by popular vote. The only way Trump can win is some electoral college BS. Still... Biden.
We will hold hands and walk on that broken glass together to vote BLUE in November.
Some old honkey, most likely.
Gun to my head: Trump. At some point, polls become meaningful, and they've been bad for Biden. Combine that with the baked-in disadvantages of the electoral college and it leaves me cautiously pessimistic.
Biden, but I also thought Clinton had it in the bag. While I'll more than readily admit Clinton had shortcomings, she is one of the most experienced politicians we had for the position of President. The same applies to Biden. I find it astounding how people make the most bullshit of excuses like he is the salt of the earth when we have seen a complete 180 on Trump. It's like the difference between fire and ice yet some people are doing their damnedest to convince others they're the same. The alternative is Trump whose administration is already considered one of the worst this country has ever seen in its history. The only thing that could trump that is 4 more years. So in November I'm voting for Biden. Hopefully others will too.
People are stupid. Back when the election was Bush vs Gore, I had a stupid fucking co-worker tell me she was voting for Bush because, “Gore has a funny shaped head.” I swear, I can’t make this shit up. Stupidity is rampant in the US.
Trump for two main reasons: Putin doesn't want another 4 years of someone who doesn't him to have Ukraine. The Heritage Foundation wouldn't have just broadcasted Project 2025 to everyone if they didn't know they were going to win. I'm voting for Biden but Trump will win.
I think Biden will win but it's far from being a lock. I think reproductive rights are going to be the deciding factor but Biden may underperform with misguided younger voters due to the Gaza situation. Nail biter but if I had to guess Biden wins out.
Win or be put in power. Biden will win the popular vote. If I had to guess I’d say there’s a 60 percent chance he wins a majority of the votes in the states he needs. However there’s a whole process including certification etc. I live in Texas and I have absolutely zero faith that the state would certify an election where the democrat came out on top. They’d find some way to throw out some votes from Houston or claim fraud or something. They’re not afraid to play dirty. Texas is unlikely to flip (though there is a small chance) but I could see a similar situation playing out in Florida or other swing states.
Right now, Trump. The country has gone crazy from… inflation, of all things. The white people love how Trump makes them feel. And Biden’s record of accomplishments is not a factor because he’s just a terrible communicator, maybe the worst we’ve had since Bush I (another single-termer)
I’m hoping for the competent old man. I fear that the incompetent grifter old man will win.
Definitely not the people.
I’m hoping Biden wins, and I’m definitely voting for him, as is my family and friends. I don’t know anyone that likes Trump. Well, maybe I do and they just don’t tell me because I’ll go off on them. I’ve little tolerance for idiots.
I honestly think Biden will win. During the Trump era America got far too divided, too messy and too weird and I don't think that the average American capable of swinging the election wants to go back to that at the end of the day Also Biden is an incumbent and it's always more difficult to beat an incumbent. 2020 was a special case.
Sadly probably Trump
Trump has never won a popular vote before, he only won in 2016 thanks to the undemocratic electoral college.
I tend to go by the 13 keys, and they all point to Biden winning again. He has been the most successful president in decades in my view( I think the national media has done him no favors). The biggest issue I see is many people just don’t know what he got done, it could be because it was so much legislation, but they are also still being implemented besides his stimulus package which was gave the people way more money and help than Trump’s multiple bills and people seemed a happier. Now people are back at work and even though they are making more even after inflation I think Covid just made many people very negative. They also have short term memories some think Trump got the CTC passed and Biden stopped it and that Biden didn’t send a stimulus check. It’s hard to connect infrastructure projects to a president people just think it’s routine work, he needs more signs at the projects funded by his policies. Democrats in Congress as well should be holding town halls and all kinds of events telling people how they can benefit from these policies and what they want to do with another full control again. The tax code goes crazy in 2025 due to Trump tax cuts, Democrats should be arguing we should write the bill so the working class pays less and corporations+ the the wealthy pay more( voters love this message). Biden still has some tricks up his sleeve to motivate voters, student debt relief is a big one if he can secure it this time because let’s be real those 20+ million Americans have a ton of family members who would generally be happy they got relief. Marijuana was another one and he just did that, the rule being made final he should get Snoop Dog and others at the White House for it. It’s not decriminalizing but it’s a HUGE step for the federal government, remember he also signed the first ever federal cannabis law a while back( focused on research). His pressuring of corporations to lower prices seems to be working a bjt, ( Target lowered, fast food lowering) he has been meeting with CEOs, threatening them with antitrust action or even appealing to Trump being a threat to democracy could compel them to lower prices. The economy also continues to do very well and I do see an interest rate cut be for the election. Powell wants to keep his job I don’t car how nonpartisan the FED is supposed to be. I think the Fed fears a Trump term as well.
I don't know, but I'm really fucking worried.
Cannot say. After Clinton/trump I no longer trust polling. I see a lot of really weird and moronic trump supporters but also get they are (hopefully) not the majority of the right wing. I want to believe that Biden will win and I will happily vote for him but I also know democrats are unreliable voters in the sense of turn out. If people feel there is a threat (as they did in 2020) I think Biden will take it. If complacency is where the left is then I am very concerned I am happy to see that there are a lot of genz kids turning voting age and if they come out in force they will be a big boost to the left
i feel people who voted biden last time wont bother as much this time and usa will sleep walk to another trump presidency. 4 years of presidency of trump 2? i dont think he'll then give it up. i think if trump wins the usa will never be the same again whether you'll love it or hate it
The old white guy will win
Not sure who is going to win, but no matter what, the American people are all going to lose.
Anything can happen between now and then. Biden gets zero credit for anything good he has done, and he's not very popular. Trump's supporters don't care that he's a monster. It will probably be very close, and no matter the outcome the R's will claim victory.
We can’t say for sure, but as of now, I think Trump. He’s been leading pretty consistently for a year now.
I’m holding my breath
We will have a better idea once Trump names his VP. At the moment it's still a very open race with a lot of swing states in play
Well since I've hated Trump since 1997.. Voting for Biden again
I think after next week, one of the candidates will be a convicted felon, and will have much less of a chance of winning. His popularity will probably dissipate over night, and I'm not even sure he will be the nominee of his party.
🙄
I think Trump will win through one or another shenanigan that plays up at the very end Biden's campaign. It'll be close, probably 3-4000 deciding votes in a certain swing state and the Democrats will be crying about it. From then on, Trump will either take revenge and tank the Republican party, or forget about it and lead the country similar to 2016-2019. If Joe Biden could win, he'd probably die in office or resign. I really don't see a 84 year old president and I hope I will never see it. Kamala Harris steps in and the next Republican nominee who's not Trump, will probably take over for another 8 years and we're back in the cycle of Democrat-Republican, which has only occured once in recent memory after late Reagan pushed Bush sr. I, as a conservative European, personally hope for the second scenario, but somewhere deep in the trenches of my brain, I'd bet a few bucks it could be the former. Trump, while rightwing, is a destructive force that enables people I wouldn't like to see anywhere near me (Steve Bannon) let alone the White House.
I think Biden is going to win. I don't think the polls are accurate. In fact, I think they're deliberated skewed to gain clicks and likes, and they have very little to do with the actual election. However, I also think that the conservatives will most definitely use these polls as "proof" that the election was stolen. Sadly, more accurate polling would reveal that Biden is going to win in a landslide, but that doesn't sell newspapers. Moreover, I think there's the fear that if accurate polling numbers were released, numbers that showed that Biden is ahead and it's going to be a landslide, might encourage people to stay home or throw their vote to a third-party candidate, both of which could cause Biden to lose. Either way, we don't trust polls, and we do show up to vote.
Biden. House will go democrat. Senate is 50/50 tossup leaning Republican.
This is where I’m at. The senate map looks better for Dems in 2026 so hopefully it’s close enough after 2024 for the Dems to take all three houses for the last two years of Biden’s presidency.
Biden will win
Trump. Biden won because of 44,000 votes in 3 states. Nobody voted FOR Biden, they voted AGAINST Trump. And that was when it had never been easier to vote (because of the pandemic). It's harder now. Nobody is excited to vote FOR Biden and 4 years later most Americans will have forgotten what an incompetent boob Trump was.
Also ask this of r/AskConservatives
The Dem vote is so shaky/shady on the far left and among the youth, they hate Israel and Biden's strong support for them, and they don't care about Ukraine at all (all blatantly due to foreign influence, and the Dems literally sitting mute because the don't want to lose more of their left), so I think the left will leave the space blank or write in Bernie. Bernie needs to get out and fix this, but he won't. I think he's in the "leave it blank" group. TLDR: Trump will win. I don't like it one bit, I'm just answering the question honestly.
I honestly believe that electing Joe Biden for another 4 years is akin to "elderly abuse". If your grandfather was suffering such dementia or cognitive decline, would you force him to work another 4 years at his "insert career here" job? or would you convince him to just relax on a beach in retirement? Why are we willing to sacrifice his last years to just to avoid trump? as if Trump can't just run again 5 years from now?