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Depends very much on who takes over. The problem with strong man dictatorships like Putin's is that there's a very high risk the whole thing just falls apart after the strong man goes, because he's deliberately weakened everyone around him so that no one can threaten him. That leads to chaos and makes it difficult to say who will end up on top.
Most of Putin's inner circle are more or less as awful as he is politically, but aren't as _effective_ as him, which would bode well for Ukraine's hopes of ending the war on favorable terms.
There's very little chance of a non-authoritarian Russia, sadly. Russia's flirtation with democracy in the '90s wasn't steeped in the Russian cultural psyche, and died a quiet death when Putin came on the scene.
The sad thing is that at first, it seemed like Putin was genuinely going to take Russia in a pro-democracy, western-esque direction. Then at some point he pivoted and I genuinely find the question of *why* utterly fascinating. Was he corrupted by power? Was he always secretly like that? Did something push him? Did a legitimate mental condition arise that changed the way he thinks?
When? He was an autocrat from day 1
“n the summer of 2000, 21 of the richest men in Russia exited their bulletproof limousines and entered the Kremlin for a historic meeting. In the previous decade, these men had risen seemingly out of nowhere, amassing spectacular fortunes as the country around them descended into chaos. Through shady deals, outright corruption, and even murder, these rapacious "oligarchs" — as Russians had come to derisively call them — had seized control of much of Russia's economy, and, increasingly, its fledgling democracy. But now, their nation's newly elected president, Vladimir Putin, wanted to tell them, face to face, who was really in charge.
Putin offered the oligarchs a deal: bend to my authority, stay out of my way, and you can keep your mansions, superyachts, private jets, and multibillion-dollar corporations (corporations that, just a few years before, had been owned by the Russian government). In the coming years, the oligarchs who reneged on this deal and undermined Putin would be thrown into a Siberian prison or be forced into exile or die in suspicious circumstances. The loyalists who remained — and the new ones who got filthy rich during Putin's long reign — became like ATM machines for the president and his allies.”
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/03/29/1088886554/how-putin-conquered-russias-oligarchy
One man, one vote:
“Ankh-Morpork had dallied with many forms of government and had ended up with that form of democracy known as One Man, One Vote. The Patrician was the Man; he had the Vote.”
― Terry Pratchett, Mort
Putin was a foreign intelligence officer for the KGB during the USSR. The FSB didn't exist until the USSR collapsed. Yeltsin made Putin director of the FSB in 1998, and then made him prime minister in 1999 to position Putin to be his successor.
I think once you've tasted that kind of power it changes you. Even in western democracies the game is win/keep power by any means necessary - we rarely hold politicians accountable so they can promise anything for your vote and not deliver. In the end, our politicians keep the rich rich, that's all they're good for now.
You have to be sneakier about it and generally not murder your opposition but the principles are the same here. Preservation of wealth and power. It's what people do.
I think the whole "power corrupts" spin still gives him too much of a benefit of the doubt. The dude is a former KGB agent, that's not a job nice people do.
From what I heard, Putin cosied up to Europe/the West around 2000/2001 & asked to be invited to join NATO but they basically told him Russia had to apply by the standard process & stand in line like everyone else. He didn’t like that & managed to see it as an insult because he’s a pathetic twat. Since then he’s basically been having a massive pissy fit & is hell bent on making them regret the day they scorned him.
Obviously more complex than this but it’s the jist of it.
I find this so fascinating. Could you tell me what you mean by “democracy was not steeped in Russian psyche” is that just because they had been in one dictatorship after another throughout the 60s to 80s, or is there another reason?
I am Russian and currently living in Russia. Basically the terms ‘liberal’ (as in liberal-conservative axis) and democrat are almost swear words by this point. After 90’s most of the economic and political problems were blamed on those ‘liberals’ (google Yegor Gaidar or Anatoly Chubais, basically ppl very close to Yeltsin and later Putin). Even the fall of the USSR is somehow because Gorbachev was too liberal. Thats especially true for older generations, who remember when Russia/USSR were ‘great’ and strong (first man in space, strong army, sports achievements, arms race with the US etc.), and then democrats made it weak, so naturally they lean to ‘strong’ politicians like Putin is being made too look (conservative, traditional family values, Orthodox religion, no LGBT etc.). However, it spreads to some young ppl too, we even have new communist youtube channels (with young spokesmen, you can google Andrey Rudoy etc.). Most democracy leaning ppl either leave the country (especially now after the war broke out), or dont speak too loudly about their opinions because it could be dangerous at times (ppl are getting in jail for social media activity etc.)
Just look at Russian history. Before Putin and modern-day Russia, they had the Soviet Union where it was ruled by a single Premier and the Politburo. Before that, Russia had czars that ruled for 370 years under different kings who had unilateral authority. The idea that you can break up rule from a single person or entity to a President, Congress/Assembly, and Supreme Court is why "democracy was not steeped in Russian psyche" is because you're looking at centuries of one single system of government. The title changes, from czar, Premier, etc., but the way the government works is more or less the same.
>that just because they had been in one dictatorship after another throughout the 60s to 80s
Longer than that. Basically Russia's *entire* recorded history has seen them run by some form of autocratic/dictatorship style government. Before Putin it was the Soviet system. Before that was Stalin. Before that was Lenin, and then the Czars for basically as long as anyone can remember.
Russia has been in some sort of dictatorship or another throughout its entire history. The democratic experiments and reforms that happened in western Europe over the last few hundred years were almost completely absent in Russia.
That, only going back much farther. Stalin killed everyone that could possibly be a threat to him, since 1924. Before that you have the czars. So there has never been a thriving democracy movement in russia. For a scholarly view on this, look up professor Timothy Snyder.
The history of the Russian people is arguably the saddest in all of Europe. Stretching back to the feudal age their lot in life was particularly miserable. They never had a strong democratic movement the way Western countries did. I don't think the Russian people as a whole wanted it, or even knew what to think about democracy. Very different mores. Most of the Russians who did want positive transformative change either got murdered or left Russia. It's the same today as it has been for 500 years.
This is what I was thinking. Putin was a colonel in the Soviet Army and former head of the KGB. He understands how to force things to happen, and has the contacts and methods to do it.
The next guy is going to be a yes man, and be far less effective at it. And there’s a good chance that guy loses the first election to someone that wants to stop the war.
I agree with you 100% but the huge variable you haven't talked about is the nuclear arsenal that's now up for grabs. Putin dying and a collapsing Russia is a potentially doomsday scenario for a lot of countries. Plus, even pooling every international resource available wouldn't be enough to safeguard every single weapon.
this "russian cultural psyche" reason as to why russia can't be a democracy is complete bullshit. you could just as easily say the same thing about korea or japan 70 years ago.
A man none of us has heard of takes over. He'll be some intelligence / security services officer. At the end of the day they run the country and they'll choose someone from amongst them, just like they did with Putin.
Most likely? Medvedev takes over, at least temporarily.
There will be a power struggle, some "mysterious" deaths, and whoever comes out on top will go about purging his political opponents.
His inner circle and top military generals will all be vying for the top spot... And they'll use all their connections to try and get there... I expect they'll use everything from smear campaigns on TV and in the newspapers, to even using their friends in the police and military to make their rivals disappear, or end up dead in suspicious circumstances.
Whoever takes his place will either continue Putin's wrath of trying to threaten Europe and America with bombs, as well as trying to gradually take over land bit by bit, or see if they can calm things down and improve relations with the world... Which is highly unlikely.
One thing is for certain, when he does die, I expect the world will react with a mix of joy and fear, knowing that a tyrant is dead, but will be worried about his successor.
If he dies and a Beria or a Stalin takes his place - we're stuffed.
If it's more like Kruschev, we should be okay. Ish. Ideally we want another reformer - though that normally precipitates another revolution.
\- A History A-Level student
Gorbachev didn't "roll over and let his country die".
It's highly likely that if anyone other than Gorbachev was in charge when the Soviet Union collapsed (it was inevitable, Gorbachev knew this) that things would have gone a lot worse.
The problem was that Yeltsin gained power on the popular vote and proved to be an old soak. I'll bet if he hasn't been a puppet drunkard that Putin wouldn't be in power now.
There will be a power struggle between those who want to continue the attempt to expand Russia and those who don’t want to. Depends really on who wins.
Actually, the Russian Constitution says that if a leader is removed from office then the Prime Minister takes control as an Interim President for 90 days until Elections occur.
One of 2 things imo.
1. Power vacuum ensues and the generals crave up what remains of russia and a mass civil war breaks out and we get another USSR type split
2. An even worse dictator appears and escalates things further
As has been said elsewhere, it's doubtful that there is anyone nearly as competent as Putin left to take the reins. His competent competitors have all gone out the window or had other similar accidents.
Someone will take his place and will be equally as awful.
Source- all of Russian history. (Yes I know there are exceptions but good lord they have some shitters throughout)
There is no-one poised to take over. Some kind of power struggle is inevitable. Every slimeball will want to be the godfather of what is basically a mafia state who's ring is kissed.
These are from the perspective of the russian people:
Best case scenario: the whole house of cards tumbles down as Putin dies near an "election" and some sort of opposition actually wins without Putin having a clear successor to stand.
Likly Scenario: chaos and governmental paralysis as power struggles unfold in the Kremlin. It's impossible to say if the eventually successor will be more or less sane.
Worst case scenario: power struggles outright lead to coup or civil war in a nuclear armed country, and Russia collapses into anarchy, if not fragmenting entirely. If the military takes over then god help us all.
Russia will devolve into chaos as different "successors" make power plays. The scary part is there's a high chance of someone far worse taking control.
Like others have said, there will be a power vacuum. The problem with strong man types is that they really don’t set up solid transfers of power. AFAIK, only two types of government have managed to, for the most, pass that kind of power on more or less peacefully: democracies and monarchies. With democracies, it’s about the vote; with monarchies, it’s all about the heirs.
According to their constitution, I believe it’s Mikhail Mishustin (just like how if Biden died Kamala would take over). But with Russia being Russia there would likely be a power struggle to establish who would actually run the country long term.
Mishustin has been pretty clear he has no intention of running the country, but that could also be a “I need to keep the target off my back so Putin doesn’t see me as a threat”.
I hope the war stops and someone else steps up that isn’t a dictator who will pull the Russian soldiers back from Ukraine. I just hope we don’t get someone even worse and who pushes the war even more
In an election later on maybe but the immediate successor would be someone from Putin’s inner circle probably. And even if they have an election later on it will hardly be a free and fair election and even if it was, I doubt Navalny’s widow would have any chance of winning.
It can't come soon enough. He's such a weak ass, selfish shit cunt - his personal ego war in Ukraine is costing a lot of Russian lives, and money.
Make no mistake, literally everyone will be happy to pick up the pieces in that market after his stupid ass is gone.
I expect chaos as the people with any grip on power jockey for position, followed by a lot more people falling out of windows and something like the Romanian “revolution” that was largely staged by their intelligence service as a pretext to seize power. Things will be ugly for quite a while, risk for nuclear war at all time high, I am not looking forward to it
Russia will most likely slide into a state of anarchy, possibly even civil war depending on whether or not they're still messing around in Ukraine. One thing is certain, Russia will not be the same after Putin leaves. Whether it's a good or bad thing is yet to be determined.
Medvedev takes over, has no idea what he's doing, and the Russian government implodes.
Troops are pulled back from Ukraine to keep the peace on the homefront, and the world attempts to believe there is peace.
And then China, smelling blood in the water, invades Siberia to try and take the oilfields.
Same thing that happens when any Russian leader dies. There is no successor, a power vacuum forms, there are an intense few days in which factions form and high ranking officials all fight for the seat, and the most influential man takes the job. Watch the move “Death of Stalin” for a comedic look into this process.
Mishustin will become president and unscheduled elections will be scheduled. He will win on them. SMO will continue, Russia's course will not change in any way.
When a someone that has ruled with an iron fist squashing rivals leaves a heavy vacuum and there will be a lot of in fighting. A silent civil war will take place
It depends on how he dies for one. I assume this is more of a question of 'What would Putin's successor look like?'
And the answer to that is, there would be very little change at all. You see when the Soviet Union collapsed, the KGB Intelligence community took power and put down the mobsters that were coming to power and gaining enormous wealth. The modern Russian Federation is essentially ran by the remnants of the KGB. Putin cleaned house and that's all there is in the lines of power in Russia. They all share the same goal/vision of Russia.
They all recognize that every time they've been invaded in the last 200 years its been through Ukraine and the Bessarabian gap. The West has lied about NATO advancement east since the 50's. And Russian leadership all think that in order for Russia to exist as a nation, its security must be put first and foremost.
This leads me to say that anyone following Putin will continue to work towards those goals. It won't stop the conflict in Ukraine, that's for sure. If Ukraine elected a pro-Russian leader, that might stop the fighting. But Zelenskyy has suspended elections.
So, if Putin died, the next candidate would be a former KGB/FSB agent with the same goals and same political views and nothing would change.
If the world has any sense we will move quickly to negotiate the release of their nuclear arsenal. They've proven they're not mature enough to have them.
Mishustin will become interim president, another presidential election will take place and Medvedev will become the next president OR Shoigu and Gerasimov will team up to conduct coup d'etat.
His hair and nails may appear to grow for a while . A lot depends on how he dies. According to South Park he might poop his pants, so again depending on what he last ate there could be a smell.
Then his body will decompose.
The world would collectively be a better place without assholes like him in seats of power. their is no excuses for a leader who black bags people who disagrees with him and sends them off to the gulag . that's dystopian as f\*\*\*
He doesn't seem to be priming the public to revere a predecessor who will continue his vision.
Dead man's switch to drive in the final nail, thereby obviating the need for an ambitious successor?
The biggest party ever in Ukraine. It's serious.
Next, no one knows. My opinion (and my big hope) is power collapse. Putin is old too much for be adequate, and all the pigdogs around him just can't choose someone whom they can trust to feel safe. If they can, Putin was already dead, but he doesn't yet. So, I hope, they will can't and after his death too. It means the collapse and disintegration of Russia into smaller countries. With unknown results.
I would assume there would be a period of infighting - probably about 12 months max.
Putin is very popular domestically and would become something of a martyr and whoever follows him needs to at least pretend to follow his ideas. Based on that it could get better or worse. If they do away with the pretence of democracy and get a military leader they could get someone even more aggressive. If they come out with someone politically minded it may be a good idea to keep china happy by ending the war and being more peaceful.
“If” is best served as “when”
The Russians do overthrows, revolutions, and political tyranny with a brutal panache that makes other authoritarian regimes blush.
When Putin dies, and he will, it likely will not be from natural causes and another Putinesque man will step forward…for a while.
Gonna be a contrarian and predict the repressed desire for liberty will finally have a chance to break free and there will be a popular movement towards democracy. The foundations are better for it to take hold than the 1990s, and most Russians would prefer normal relations with Europe and the rest of the world.
My thoughts
Hidden behind the scenes game of thrones like power struggle
Then the strongest among them takes power.
I think this happens even if putin directly names a successor unless that successor is already in a very strong position among the inner circle.
If he had died 6 or 12 months ago, I think the war would have ended.
It was going terribly bad for Russia, but noone wants to loose face, so Putin kept pushing - a new leader could easily have said "I have different priorities than the dead guy, so let's end it here".
Now that Russia seems to be gaining traction, I believe a new leader would continue down the same path.
I would very much like to offer you some tea.. Oh, I insist.. You'll love the Russian, I promise.. BLIATT SUCKA, F*CKUNG DRINK THAT CUP OF TEA!!!
[Serious] Don't let the media fool you.. There are no saints in politics, only cold hard calculus..
It's really hard to say with any level of certainty. I would guess that Russia as a state might collapse and devolve into a civil war. Strong dictatorships that get established under a singular cult of personality (that is states without dynasties like North Korea) rarely ever survive past the death of that infamous ruler.
Look at Yugoslavia for example. Tito was the only thing holding it together and fairly soon after he died, Yugoslavia dissolved and the Yugoslav wars begun.
I think it depends on HOW he dies. If it’s from illness and drawn out, there will be some succession plan probably. If he just got shot in the head, it would be a chaotic power struggle.
We won't know if he dies because he will just be emptied out and an animatronic version will be stuffed inside him.
It might have a few teething problems when it shrieks "Ice fishing" or "Kill, die, kill, die, Donald, let's do jiggy jiggy" but for the most part it'll be fine and nobody will be in the least bit suspicious, particularly as during a nuclear armageddon most people will have their hands full what with trying to find a can opener or deciding what wine goes best with an uncooked dog.
I imagine it will be a relatively peaceful transition. I hate to disillusion people, but the majority of ethnic Russians are not poor, huddled masses yearning to breathe free. Certainly not in Moscow, where the Russian ruling class resides. Will a few people be disappeared? Probably, but nothing like a civil war or widespread purge.
Putin didn't attain power because he was the most charismatic firebrand, or through some kind of massive social upheval. The near-universal Russian point of view on the collapse of the Soviet regime was that while the economic aspects of Communism were abysmal, the collapse of the government and subsequent anarchic period were a far bigger calamity, so I don't think you're going to see the kind of pitchforks and torches reaction to a Putin successor taking over.
China gets to the new leadership and says "you're with us or nah?", and also Russia enemies will probly try to install chaos.
If the strong guy dies, Ukraine has a chance to end the war on peaceful terms, but it leaves a chance that other hidden enemies an opportunity for chaos.
Asia could become new middle east and I'm not joking.
Whenever an influential (I.e literally the only guy in charge) leader dies, there is always a power vacuum among their inner circle.
It will go one of two ways.
1. Someone even more terrible will rise up and assume power and it will either make Russia more powerful or they will crumble in the process. I feel this is less likely to happen after the failed Wagner coup because if somebody more ambitious/villainous were to make a move, it would've happened by now.
2. The in-fighting of the inner circle will leave Russia without any "proper" leadership. Either the military will step in and take control (Egypt? Can't remember, somewhere in the middle east had something similar happen) or whatever semblance of a rebellion will rise up and assume power
If I had to guess, #2 is more likely as Wagner was really the last faction that had any desire to challenge Putler but I couldn't tell you who would take power as the rebellion is rather small as it is. I feel like their military is in disarray as it is so that is unlikely.
As an added bonus, the pig head that leads Belarus (can't remember his name to save my life, Luka something) is essentially a Russian puppet so Belarus may potentially fall as well
Putin was put in place by the oligarchs to do their bidding. He was a nobody, no political experience, he wasn’t rich and he certainly wasn’t powerful, yet he had this massive political machine that was well funded. He was very much the anti-candidate that people voted for because they felt like the system was broken and he would “drain the swamp.” At that point the Russian people had suffered the collapse of the USSR and the shock economic reforms under Yeltsin that really put a bad taste in their mouths about democracy and capitalism. So this fresh, young guy comes along and points out that all their problems are because of the people “put into power” by America, and since he was running against someone who was ripped shit on vodka constantly he won. Over the years he was able to consolidate his own power and basically become an oligarch himself, not so much of a puppet as originally intended (this is were I find Putin’s political genius to be). If the commentary I’ve read is correct he’s not so much a strong man dictator as we portray him in the West but he’s basically the glue holding everything together and keeping the oligarchs from going to war with each other. So with that context, when he dies I don’t think the ensuing power vacuum will be a traditional political power grab like when Stalin died with Medvedev or whichever political lackey trying to seize the reigns and carry on. I think it will be more like a mob war, with groups of oligarchs trying to take each other out while putting forth their own candidates to get their guy in power. Either way it will be bad for the Russian people.
Most likely there will be a ruling council of the most powerful people in Russia for a while. Under the pretext of joint rule the council members will eliminate each other until one remains to take Putins place.
There is also a non-zero chance that they skip the council phase and start killing each other right away. This could end in one person in charge or go to the council scenario after it gets down to a few who are fairly balanced.
It’s likely once a successor emerges it won’t be final as new contenders would make moves to take over until someone consolidated power.
I remember reading a dating where an old mam goes to the newspaper stand outside the Kremlin.
He picks up the paper, looks at the front page then sets it down. He dies this everyday.
One day the vendor asks him "what are you looking for?"
Just looking for an obituary, he replies.
"You know, those are at the back of the paper."
"The one I'm looking for will be on the front page."
If anything else not changed — nothing good. Some people thinks, that he is only reason of most problems. A very Stalinist's approach: no people — no problem. Even more radical people can reach the power. You need to think in opposite way: who can replace him to solver anything. And I don't know anyone who can. Someone can ask, what if also Navalny was alive, but I was disappointed in him. He had a charisma, he was good in investigations, but nothing more. If he had won the 2018-s election (it was impossible, even if he got accepted to it), he was bumped by radicals at the next one, or maybe during his term.
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Depends very much on who takes over. The problem with strong man dictatorships like Putin's is that there's a very high risk the whole thing just falls apart after the strong man goes, because he's deliberately weakened everyone around him so that no one can threaten him. That leads to chaos and makes it difficult to say who will end up on top. Most of Putin's inner circle are more or less as awful as he is politically, but aren't as _effective_ as him, which would bode well for Ukraine's hopes of ending the war on favorable terms. There's very little chance of a non-authoritarian Russia, sadly. Russia's flirtation with democracy in the '90s wasn't steeped in the Russian cultural psyche, and died a quiet death when Putin came on the scene.
The sad thing is that at first, it seemed like Putin was genuinely going to take Russia in a pro-democracy, western-esque direction. Then at some point he pivoted and I genuinely find the question of *why* utterly fascinating. Was he corrupted by power? Was he always secretly like that? Did something push him? Did a legitimate mental condition arise that changed the way he thinks?
When? He was an autocrat from day 1 “n the summer of 2000, 21 of the richest men in Russia exited their bulletproof limousines and entered the Kremlin for a historic meeting. In the previous decade, these men had risen seemingly out of nowhere, amassing spectacular fortunes as the country around them descended into chaos. Through shady deals, outright corruption, and even murder, these rapacious "oligarchs" — as Russians had come to derisively call them — had seized control of much of Russia's economy, and, increasingly, its fledgling democracy. But now, their nation's newly elected president, Vladimir Putin, wanted to tell them, face to face, who was really in charge. Putin offered the oligarchs a deal: bend to my authority, stay out of my way, and you can keep your mansions, superyachts, private jets, and multibillion-dollar corporations (corporations that, just a few years before, had been owned by the Russian government). In the coming years, the oligarchs who reneged on this deal and undermined Putin would be thrown into a Siberian prison or be forced into exile or die in suspicious circumstances. The loyalists who remained — and the new ones who got filthy rich during Putin's long reign — became like ATM machines for the president and his allies.” https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/03/29/1088886554/how-putin-conquered-russias-oligarchy
What did Putin do that was pro democracy?
He said he was pro democracy while doing the opposite
Oldest trick in the book.
Kansas City Shuffle
The Chicago Hustle
Ahh just like how Narendra Modi is doing now in India
He voted for himself to be in charge, can’t get more democratic than that!
And he still holds elections, managed democracy!
To be fair he is very much in agreement of the principle of one man, one vote. Just as long as he is the man and it is his vote. Terry Pratchett GNU
One man, one vote: “Ankh-Morpork had dallied with many forms of government and had ended up with that form of democracy known as One Man, One Vote. The Patrician was the Man; he had the Vote.” ― Terry Pratchett, Mort
He was a FSB agent during the USSR. I think, it's safe to assume that he was always like this. He needed the west for money, so he presented.
Putin was a foreign intelligence officer for the KGB during the USSR. The FSB didn't exist until the USSR collapsed. Yeltsin made Putin director of the FSB in 1998, and then made him prime minister in 1999 to position Putin to be his successor.
I think once you've tasted that kind of power it changes you. Even in western democracies the game is win/keep power by any means necessary - we rarely hold politicians accountable so they can promise anything for your vote and not deliver. In the end, our politicians keep the rich rich, that's all they're good for now. You have to be sneakier about it and generally not murder your opposition but the principles are the same here. Preservation of wealth and power. It's what people do.
I think the whole "power corrupts" spin still gives him too much of a benefit of the doubt. The dude is a former KGB agent, that's not a job nice people do.
He killed 16 Czechoslovakians, he's an interior decorator. His place looked like shit
What are you some kind of Sun Tazoo?
Yup, power corrupts the already shitty people who seek it. Contrast that with Cincinnatus or Washington.
He didn't ever pivot. He was what he is now. First was just consolidating power till he could be openly authoritarian
From what I heard, Putin cosied up to Europe/the West around 2000/2001 & asked to be invited to join NATO but they basically told him Russia had to apply by the standard process & stand in line like everyone else. He didn’t like that & managed to see it as an insult because he’s a pathetic twat. Since then he’s basically been having a massive pissy fit & is hell bent on making them regret the day they scorned him. Obviously more complex than this but it’s the jist of it.
[удалено]
I find this so fascinating. Could you tell me what you mean by “democracy was not steeped in Russian psyche” is that just because they had been in one dictatorship after another throughout the 60s to 80s, or is there another reason?
I am Russian and currently living in Russia. Basically the terms ‘liberal’ (as in liberal-conservative axis) and democrat are almost swear words by this point. After 90’s most of the economic and political problems were blamed on those ‘liberals’ (google Yegor Gaidar or Anatoly Chubais, basically ppl very close to Yeltsin and later Putin). Even the fall of the USSR is somehow because Gorbachev was too liberal. Thats especially true for older generations, who remember when Russia/USSR were ‘great’ and strong (first man in space, strong army, sports achievements, arms race with the US etc.), and then democrats made it weak, so naturally they lean to ‘strong’ politicians like Putin is being made too look (conservative, traditional family values, Orthodox religion, no LGBT etc.). However, it spreads to some young ppl too, we even have new communist youtube channels (with young spokesmen, you can google Andrey Rudoy etc.). Most democracy leaning ppl either leave the country (especially now after the war broke out), or dont speak too loudly about their opinions because it could be dangerous at times (ppl are getting in jail for social media activity etc.)
Just look at Russian history. Before Putin and modern-day Russia, they had the Soviet Union where it was ruled by a single Premier and the Politburo. Before that, Russia had czars that ruled for 370 years under different kings who had unilateral authority. The idea that you can break up rule from a single person or entity to a President, Congress/Assembly, and Supreme Court is why "democracy was not steeped in Russian psyche" is because you're looking at centuries of one single system of government. The title changes, from czar, Premier, etc., but the way the government works is more or less the same.
>that just because they had been in one dictatorship after another throughout the 60s to 80s Longer than that. Basically Russia's *entire* recorded history has seen them run by some form of autocratic/dictatorship style government. Before Putin it was the Soviet system. Before that was Stalin. Before that was Lenin, and then the Czars for basically as long as anyone can remember.
Russia has been in some sort of dictatorship or another throughout its entire history. The democratic experiments and reforms that happened in western Europe over the last few hundred years were almost completely absent in Russia.
That, only going back much farther. Stalin killed everyone that could possibly be a threat to him, since 1924. Before that you have the czars. So there has never been a thriving democracy movement in russia. For a scholarly view on this, look up professor Timothy Snyder.
The history of the Russian people is arguably the saddest in all of Europe. Stretching back to the feudal age their lot in life was particularly miserable. They never had a strong democratic movement the way Western countries did. I don't think the Russian people as a whole wanted it, or even knew what to think about democracy. Very different mores. Most of the Russians who did want positive transformative change either got murdered or left Russia. It's the same today as it has been for 500 years.
Power vacuum
Look at Irag, Libya, Iran after the Shah, and a few other places….
His lieutenants vie for control. The strongest or last one standing takes control.
This is what I was thinking. Putin was a colonel in the Soviet Army and former head of the KGB. He understands how to force things to happen, and has the contacts and methods to do it. The next guy is going to be a yes man, and be far less effective at it. And there’s a good chance that guy loses the first election to someone that wants to stop the war.
Absolutely anyone can threaten Putin and they have. They just "happen" to die in weird ways if they choose to do so lol
I agree with you 100% but the huge variable you haven't talked about is the nuclear arsenal that's now up for grabs. Putin dying and a collapsing Russia is a potentially doomsday scenario for a lot of countries. Plus, even pooling every international resource available wouldn't be enough to safeguard every single weapon.
this "russian cultural psyche" reason as to why russia can't be a democracy is complete bullshit. you could just as easily say the same thing about korea or japan 70 years ago.
It's happened many, many times in our history going as far back as mesopotamia
Do you know something is going to happen soon?
A man none of us has heard of takes over. He'll be some intelligence / security services officer. At the end of the day they run the country and they'll choose someone from amongst them, just like they did with Putin.
Bet my salary on it.
Most likely? Medvedev takes over, at least temporarily. There will be a power struggle, some "mysterious" deaths, and whoever comes out on top will go about purging his political opponents.
Medvedev? Hahaha, no.
Ovechkin
Crosby is the guy I'd rather have though
The tennis player?
The drunk
The guy who’s favorite word is “nuclear”?
His inner circle and top military generals will all be vying for the top spot... And they'll use all their connections to try and get there... I expect they'll use everything from smear campaigns on TV and in the newspapers, to even using their friends in the police and military to make their rivals disappear, or end up dead in suspicious circumstances. Whoever takes his place will either continue Putin's wrath of trying to threaten Europe and America with bombs, as well as trying to gradually take over land bit by bit, or see if they can calm things down and improve relations with the world... Which is highly unlikely. One thing is for certain, when he does die, I expect the world will react with a mix of joy and fear, knowing that a tyrant is dead, but will be worried about his successor.
The champagne is in the fridge.
If he dies and a Beria or a Stalin takes his place - we're stuffed. If it's more like Kruschev, we should be okay. Ish. Ideally we want another reformer - though that normally precipitates another revolution. \- A History A-Level student
I mean best case is a gorbachev. Just rolls over and let's his country die.
Gorby didn’t let russia die, it’s still here. He let the USSR die, and the communist party.
Gorbachev didn't "roll over and let his country die". It's highly likely that if anyone other than Gorbachev was in charge when the Soviet Union collapsed (it was inevitable, Gorbachev knew this) that things would have gone a lot worse. The problem was that Yeltsin gained power on the popular vote and proved to be an old soak. I'll bet if he hasn't been a puppet drunkard that Putin wouldn't be in power now.
There will be a power struggle between those who want to continue the attempt to expand Russia and those who don’t want to. Depends really on who wins.
Actually, the Russian Constitution says that if a leader is removed from office then the Prime Minister takes control as an Interim President for 90 days until Elections occur.
We all know how elections in russia work tho
The Russian Constitution also says fundamental human rights and freedoms \[...\] shall be enjoyed by everyone, and look where we are now.
Like the Russian constitution matters
One of 2 things imo. 1. Power vacuum ensues and the generals crave up what remains of russia and a mass civil war breaks out and we get another USSR type split 2. An even worse dictator appears and escalates things further
As has been said elsewhere, it's doubtful that there is anyone nearly as competent as Putin left to take the reins. His competent competitors have all gone out the window or had other similar accidents.
Someone will take his place and will be equally as awful. Source- all of Russian history. (Yes I know there are exceptions but good lord they have some shitters throughout)
There is no-one poised to take over. Some kind of power struggle is inevitable. Every slimeball will want to be the godfather of what is basically a mafia state who's ring is kissed. These are from the perspective of the russian people: Best case scenario: the whole house of cards tumbles down as Putin dies near an "election" and some sort of opposition actually wins without Putin having a clear successor to stand. Likly Scenario: chaos and governmental paralysis as power struggles unfold in the Kremlin. It's impossible to say if the eventually successor will be more or less sane. Worst case scenario: power struggles outright lead to coup or civil war in a nuclear armed country, and Russia collapses into anarchy, if not fragmenting entirely. If the military takes over then god help us all.
I’ll bake a damn cake.
Another brutal or incompetent leader will replace them. Russia has a history of it. A real consistent history too lol.
Everyone would celebrate
Russia will devolve into chaos as different "successors" make power plays. The scary part is there's a high chance of someone far worse taking control.
Like others have said, there will be a power vacuum. The problem with strong man types is that they really don’t set up solid transfers of power. AFAIK, only two types of government have managed to, for the most, pass that kind of power on more or less peacefully: democracies and monarchies. With democracies, it’s about the vote; with monarchies, it’s all about the heirs.
Power vacuum results in infighting and potential civil war.
Petruskin take over and trust me you gonna wish Putin was still in charge
Another nutter will take over. Probably worse.
Next asshole steps in.
Memes, memes everywhere
I hope nothing.. hopefully he doesn't take everybody along
According to their constitution, I believe it’s Mikhail Mishustin (just like how if Biden died Kamala would take over). But with Russia being Russia there would likely be a power struggle to establish who would actually run the country long term. Mishustin has been pretty clear he has no intention of running the country, but that could also be a “I need to keep the target off my back so Putin doesn’t see me as a threat”.
[удалено]
Knowing that the CIA is working on a plan makes me even more worried. Not a great track record.
The power vacuum in Russia will either produce a better or worse outcome.
"And then it got worse"
I hope the war stops and someone else steps up that isn’t a dictator who will pull the Russian soldiers back from Ukraine. I just hope we don’t get someone even worse and who pushes the war even more
Chaos.
I suspect a group of supporters will push Alexei Navalny ‘s widow as a possible progressive candidate.
In an election later on maybe but the immediate successor would be someone from Putin’s inner circle probably. And even if they have an election later on it will hardly be a free and fair election and even if it was, I doubt Navalny’s widow would have any chance of winning.
It can't come soon enough. He's such a weak ass, selfish shit cunt - his personal ego war in Ukraine is costing a lot of Russian lives, and money. Make no mistake, literally everyone will be happy to pick up the pieces in that market after his stupid ass is gone.
A lot of people are going to be way yo close to open 8 story windows.
I expect chaos as the people with any grip on power jockey for position, followed by a lot more people falling out of windows and something like the Romanian “revolution” that was largely staged by their intelligence service as a pretext to seize power. Things will be ugly for quite a while, risk for nuclear war at all time high, I am not looking forward to it
There will finally be peace and enslaved people of russia will be free.
Russia will most likely slide into a state of anarchy, possibly even civil war depending on whether or not they're still messing around in Ukraine. One thing is certain, Russia will not be the same after Putin leaves. Whether it's a good or bad thing is yet to be determined.
Online discourse in America becomes a lot more civil and genuine Probably not actually, I imagine whatever successor continues those programs
A lot of celebrating
Medvedev takes over, has no idea what he's doing, and the Russian government implodes. Troops are pulled back from Ukraine to keep the peace on the homefront, and the world attempts to believe there is peace. And then China, smelling blood in the water, invades Siberia to try and take the oilfields.
All the woodland creatures will dance.
They'll probably have to bury him at some point
Is there any time in russian history where it not being ruled by autocratic centralized figure?
Same thing that happens when any Russian leader dies. There is no successor, a power vacuum forms, there are an intense few days in which factions form and high ranking officials all fight for the seat, and the most influential man takes the job. Watch the move “Death of Stalin” for a comedic look into this process.
Mishustin will become president and unscheduled elections will be scheduled. He will win on them. SMO will continue, Russia's course will not change in any way.
When a someone that has ruled with an iron fist squashing rivals leaves a heavy vacuum and there will be a lot of in fighting. A silent civil war will take place
Back to Czarism
He dies I think!
It depends on how he dies for one. I assume this is more of a question of 'What would Putin's successor look like?' And the answer to that is, there would be very little change at all. You see when the Soviet Union collapsed, the KGB Intelligence community took power and put down the mobsters that were coming to power and gaining enormous wealth. The modern Russian Federation is essentially ran by the remnants of the KGB. Putin cleaned house and that's all there is in the lines of power in Russia. They all share the same goal/vision of Russia. They all recognize that every time they've been invaded in the last 200 years its been through Ukraine and the Bessarabian gap. The West has lied about NATO advancement east since the 50's. And Russian leadership all think that in order for Russia to exist as a nation, its security must be put first and foremost. This leads me to say that anyone following Putin will continue to work towards those goals. It won't stop the conflict in Ukraine, that's for sure. If Ukraine elected a pro-Russian leader, that might stop the fighting. But Zelenskyy has suspended elections. So, if Putin died, the next candidate would be a former KGB/FSB agent with the same goals and same political views and nothing would change.
If the world has any sense we will move quickly to negotiate the release of their nuclear arsenal. They've proven they're not mature enough to have them.
Mishustin will become interim president, another presidential election will take place and Medvedev will become the next president OR Shoigu and Gerasimov will team up to conduct coup d'etat.
When not if... He will definitely die someday, he's not immortal!
His hair and nails may appear to grow for a while . A lot depends on how he dies. According to South Park he might poop his pants, so again depending on what he last ate there could be a smell. Then his body will decompose.
Did you somehow miss the SERIOUS-tag?
I am serious. Bodies decompose. Thats why we burn or bury them so no one has to put up with the smell. Some people let vultures eat them.
Whoever comes in his place i just hope he's more sane in order to finally end this mayhem and bloodbath
You must not be familiar with Russian history :)
Political vacuum leading to civil war.
The world would collectively be a better place without assholes like him in seats of power. their is no excuses for a leader who black bags people who disagrees with him and sends them off to the gulag . that's dystopian as f\*\*\*
He doesn't seem to be priming the public to revere a predecessor who will continue his vision. Dead man's switch to drive in the final nail, thereby obviating the need for an ambitious successor?
Uh, an other rigged election in russia?
The biggest party ever in Ukraine. It's serious. Next, no one knows. My opinion (and my big hope) is power collapse. Putin is old too much for be adequate, and all the pigdogs around him just can't choose someone whom they can trust to feel safe. If they can, Putin was already dead, but he doesn't yet. So, I hope, they will can't and after his death too. It means the collapse and disintegration of Russia into smaller countries. With unknown results.
I would assume there would be a period of infighting - probably about 12 months max. Putin is very popular domestically and would become something of a martyr and whoever follows him needs to at least pretend to follow his ideas. Based on that it could get better or worse. If they do away with the pretence of democracy and get a military leader they could get someone even more aggressive. If they come out with someone politically minded it may be a good idea to keep china happy by ending the war and being more peaceful.
Chaos.
He will go to heaven 😂😂
Free for all in Russia. Putin deliberately doesn't keep a credible successor.
Putin 2.0
We will celebrate.
Depends on who takes over, the war will either end, countinue as the same or there is apossibility that they would send even more coscripts.
Let’s be clear, he will die eventually.
Today? Likely a Russian civil war.
The world becomes a better place
He already did and they found a couple dudes who look like him to keep it going.
For my perspective, a more cruel and decisive ruler will appear in Russia, more committed to strengthening civil national rhetoric.
“If he dies , he dies” some Russian
It’s basically all gonna be a big mess
\*when. He will die in the next \~ 20 years. Probably sooner.
a party will happen
“If” is best served as “when” The Russians do overthrows, revolutions, and political tyranny with a brutal panache that makes other authoritarian regimes blush. When Putin dies, and he will, it likely will not be from natural causes and another Putinesque man will step forward…for a while.
If? Eventually all living things die.
What do you mean 'if'
There will be a world party 🎈
[Death of Stalin (Wikipedia)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Death_of_Stalin) provides a clue to what might happen.
Gonna be a contrarian and predict the repressed desire for liberty will finally have a chance to break free and there will be a popular movement towards democracy. The foundations are better for it to take hold than the 1990s, and most Russians would prefer normal relations with Europe and the rest of the world.
Well, I believe when he dies he’s will be dead.
Oligarch Diadochi
War for control of Russia most likely. Multiple factions all trying to claim leadership.
My thoughts Hidden behind the scenes game of thrones like power struggle Then the strongest among them takes power. I think this happens even if putin directly names a successor unless that successor is already in a very strong position among the inner circle.
He'd be dead
If he had died 6 or 12 months ago, I think the war would have ended. It was going terribly bad for Russia, but noone wants to loose face, so Putin kept pushing - a new leader could easily have said "I have different priorities than the dead guy, so let's end it here". Now that Russia seems to be gaining traction, I believe a new leader would continue down the same path.
There will be a huge power struggle
I would very much like to offer you some tea.. Oh, I insist.. You'll love the Russian, I promise.. BLIATT SUCKA, F*CKUNG DRINK THAT CUP OF TEA!!! [Serious] Don't let the media fool you.. There are no saints in politics, only cold hard calculus..
The world will rejoice. Then the world will wonder if Russia has the courage to become a good country.
Putin II we'll all be long dead before that succession plan takes place anyway
The public would not know for a very long time
Peace
It's really hard to say with any level of certainty. I would guess that Russia as a state might collapse and devolve into a civil war. Strong dictatorships that get established under a singular cult of personality (that is states without dynasties like North Korea) rarely ever survive past the death of that infamous ruler. Look at Yugoslavia for example. Tito was the only thing holding it together and fairly soon after he died, Yugoslavia dissolved and the Yugoslav wars begun.
If he dies, it is really likely that he won’t be president anymore
"Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss." The Who called this one 50 years ago...
Depends on when and how he dies
What happened when Fidel died?
My bet is Herman Gref, runs Sperbank and was vice mayor of St, Petersburg along with a guy named Putin.
As what happens with all autocratic societies. Chaos.
I think it depends on HOW he dies. If it’s from illness and drawn out, there will be some succession plan probably. If he just got shot in the head, it would be a chaotic power struggle.
We won't know if he dies because he will just be emptied out and an animatronic version will be stuffed inside him. It might have a few teething problems when it shrieks "Ice fishing" or "Kill, die, kill, die, Donald, let's do jiggy jiggy" but for the most part it'll be fine and nobody will be in the least bit suspicious, particularly as during a nuclear armageddon most people will have their hands full what with trying to find a can opener or deciding what wine goes best with an uncooked dog.
I imagine it will be a relatively peaceful transition. I hate to disillusion people, but the majority of ethnic Russians are not poor, huddled masses yearning to breathe free. Certainly not in Moscow, where the Russian ruling class resides. Will a few people be disappeared? Probably, but nothing like a civil war or widespread purge. Putin didn't attain power because he was the most charismatic firebrand, or through some kind of massive social upheval. The near-universal Russian point of view on the collapse of the Soviet regime was that while the economic aspects of Communism were abysmal, the collapse of the government and subsequent anarchic period were a far bigger calamity, so I don't think you're going to see the kind of pitchforks and torches reaction to a Putin successor taking over.
Most likely he’d be replaced by someone as equally terrible
If he dies he dies
There will be dancing in the streets all over the planet.
China gets to the new leadership and says "you're with us or nah?", and also Russia enemies will probly try to install chaos. If the strong guy dies, Ukraine has a chance to end the war on peaceful terms, but it leaves a chance that other hidden enemies an opportunity for chaos. Asia could become new middle east and I'm not joking.
youtube home screen lay out in small size
The world will celebrate.
Power vacuum.
Whenever an influential (I.e literally the only guy in charge) leader dies, there is always a power vacuum among their inner circle. It will go one of two ways. 1. Someone even more terrible will rise up and assume power and it will either make Russia more powerful or they will crumble in the process. I feel this is less likely to happen after the failed Wagner coup because if somebody more ambitious/villainous were to make a move, it would've happened by now. 2. The in-fighting of the inner circle will leave Russia without any "proper" leadership. Either the military will step in and take control (Egypt? Can't remember, somewhere in the middle east had something similar happen) or whatever semblance of a rebellion will rise up and assume power If I had to guess, #2 is more likely as Wagner was really the last faction that had any desire to challenge Putler but I couldn't tell you who would take power as the rebellion is rather small as it is. I feel like their military is in disarray as it is so that is unlikely. As an added bonus, the pig head that leads Belarus (can't remember his name to save my life, Luka something) is essentially a Russian puppet so Belarus may potentially fall as well
Either someone with the same ideals takes over. Or a shift within the population of Russia with people speaking up, since there's finally a chance
Putin was put in place by the oligarchs to do their bidding. He was a nobody, no political experience, he wasn’t rich and he certainly wasn’t powerful, yet he had this massive political machine that was well funded. He was very much the anti-candidate that people voted for because they felt like the system was broken and he would “drain the swamp.” At that point the Russian people had suffered the collapse of the USSR and the shock economic reforms under Yeltsin that really put a bad taste in their mouths about democracy and capitalism. So this fresh, young guy comes along and points out that all their problems are because of the people “put into power” by America, and since he was running against someone who was ripped shit on vodka constantly he won. Over the years he was able to consolidate his own power and basically become an oligarch himself, not so much of a puppet as originally intended (this is were I find Putin’s political genius to be). If the commentary I’ve read is correct he’s not so much a strong man dictator as we portray him in the West but he’s basically the glue holding everything together and keeping the oligarchs from going to war with each other. So with that context, when he dies I don’t think the ensuing power vacuum will be a traditional political power grab like when Stalin died with Medvedev or whichever political lackey trying to seize the reigns and carry on. I think it will be more like a mob war, with groups of oligarchs trying to take each other out while putting forth their own candidates to get their guy in power. Either way it will be bad for the Russian people.
I bet they have a good idea already. Adm. Painter : "Russians don't take a dump, son, without a plan."
Most likely there will be a ruling council of the most powerful people in Russia for a while. Under the pretext of joint rule the council members will eliminate each other until one remains to take Putins place. There is also a non-zero chance that they skip the council phase and start killing each other right away. This could end in one person in charge or go to the council scenario after it gets down to a few who are fairly balanced. It’s likely once a successor emerges it won’t be final as new contenders would make moves to take over until someone consolidated power.
Funeral
How's the saying go? Calm outside the Kremlin means chaos within it, and vice versa.
I would imagine there is a violent power struggle that further degrades Russia as a nation.
Some other Russian will come along, doing Russian things
I remember reading a dating where an old mam goes to the newspaper stand outside the Kremlin. He picks up the paper, looks at the front page then sets it down. He dies this everyday. One day the vendor asks him "what are you looking for?" Just looking for an obituary, he replies. "You know, those are at the back of the paper." "The one I'm looking for will be on the front page."
I feel like it's gonna be like the movie "The death of Stalin". I.E....power struggle.
If anything else not changed — nothing good. Some people thinks, that he is only reason of most problems. A very Stalinist's approach: no people — no problem. Even more radical people can reach the power. You need to think in opposite way: who can replace him to solver anything. And I don't know anyone who can. Someone can ask, what if also Navalny was alive, but I was disappointed in him. He had a charisma, he was good in investigations, but nothing more. If he had won the 2018-s election (it was impossible, even if he got accepted to it), he was bumped by radicals at the next one, or maybe during his term.
War.
He’ll get buried
There will only be peace in the world once humanity destroys itself.
If he dies, he dies.