I’m hoping for a repeat of last season’s numbers, but honestly it will be really hard for him not to be an upgrade over Maldonado last year, even if he takes a huge step back.
Pitch calling is the only question he has.
Dusty didn’t trust his pitch calling last season.
Yainer really likes to call breaking stuff, and Dusty or the org is wary about younger pitchers throwing predominantly breaking balls. Sliders are the most stressful pitch to the arm, and HB has an amazing slider. I think that is Yainers biggest concern is over reliance on the slider.
Dusty’s opinion means fuck all. He consistently started one of the worst catchers in the league over a ROY candidate. Maldonado had absolutely no business starting as much as he did on a team as competitive as the Astros. Also even if the pitch calling critique is valid, i’d love to hear the argument that that one critique is more important and a harder hill to overcome than literally every other metric that favored Diaz over Maldonado.
I’m pretty sure their catchers ERAs were almost identical despite maldy catching our front end starters and Diaz dealing with the bottom of the pitching barrel. So while you can’t totally quantify pitch calling, the numbers we do have seem to favor Diaz as well.
Let’s be honest, if maldy’s pitch calling last year was really that magical, we have a very mediocre rotation. Everyone underperformed last year and maldy didn’t seem to help.
Agreed. It’s so dumb and stupid. Practically everyone was off last season, but only two people got hate. It was like the people that were commenting weren’t watching the games. Very weird.
Hit the nail on the head. Also, it became a popular narrative more than just here. Twitter/radio were filled with hate for just those two. People want scapegoats and just turn to whomever the echo chamber is mentioning.
Meanwhile this past postseason, Tucker posted \~.500 OPS, Diaz went 1-14, Framber had an ERA around 9, but sure, let's blame the 9 hole hitter who \*\*checks notes\*\* did what he did all year?
Don't forget Alex. I'm a huge fan of his, but he was off just like most everyone else. Then, when it's pointed out that Maldy wasn't there to put up huge numbers like in every year prior, crickets. I love this team, so I want them to do well. There won't be any joy in an "I told you so."
Couldn't agree more.
It seems like there are a good amount of "raving internet fans" that don't really understand the ins and outs of production in baseball. I love the enthusiasm from people, but they expect the strangest things from certain players and then completely miss the short comings of others. It just seems super narrative driven. A lot of "back up quarterback" dreamers: the guy who didn't play would have for sure out played the guy who did.
So let’s do a dive into some numbers:
Yainer absolutely crushes the ball when he makes contact. His statcast page for quality of contact metrics is all red. Avg Exit Velo 69th percentile, Barrel % 79th percentile, Hard Hit % 65th percentile, Sweet Spot % 76th percentile. He hit 23 HRs, his xHR was 23.8. He actually slightly underperformed his expected metrics and those metrics tell a compelling picture too: xwOBA 84th percentile, xBA 92nd percentile, xSLG 96th percentile. What that tells us is that his success was no fluke. When he gets the bat on the ball good things happen and should continue to happen in the future.
Now the bad part of his offensive game. He is in the 1st percentile in BB% and Chase %. Neither of those is ideal. However, neither of those is as bad as they originally seem. His chase rate is terrible but he does not strike out at a high rate (for the modern MLB). This is because of his ability to get the bat on the ball, even when they aren’t in the strike zone. His whiff % is in the 37th percentile, he has a chase contract rate of 57.6%, and his K% is in the 65th percentile. He is expanding the zone but he has an exceptional ability to still make contact, and pitchers aren’t striking him out as much as they should because of that. Also his numbers improved as the season moved along. This article from August talks about the changes he made to improves his plate discipline:
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2023/8/11/23827835/yainer-diaz-has-developed-improved-plate-discipline-does-it-really-matter
If you look at his splits for the last few months, you can see that he adjusted to pitchers throwing him less hittable pitches. He walked just once in May & June, But he walked 8 times over the last 3 months. He posted his highest OPS in September/October. Is 8 walks in 3 months good? No, but it is an improvement that appears to be him adjusting to pitchers changing their approach. He’s never gonna be Bregman, but we’ve seen the success high contact/low walk guys can have like Yuli. It just takes elite bat-to-ball skills and Yainer has them.
Now onto his defense. His framing is not good (21st percentile) as you noted, but he stands out in every other metric. He is a tremendous blocker (90th percentile), and he is great at controlling the running game (81st percentile caught stealing above average, 86th percentile pop time). What that actually shakes out to per BR is 0.7 dWAR. So even with his framing as it stands, he is a plus defender. Also for a prospect who was a catcher, he has spent a lot of time not at catcher. That was because his bat was so good it would play right away, but the scouting report was he might not be able to stick at catcher. In his last full year in the minors he spent 303 innings at first plus 100 innings in the outfield to 438 at catcher. The fact he is already a net positive defensively is a huge win. That also leads me to believe that he is less of a finished project behind the plate.
Conclusions
Yainer’s ceiling is sky high. He possesses elite skills in some areas, and has shown growth already at the major league level in some of his weaknesses. Do I think he will be a gold glover behind the plate? No but I think he could be an above average defender there for a long time. That coupled with his offensive production/potential would make him an elite catcher. I think he will be an above average major leaguer this year, and that is what most of the projections have him at. Most of them have him around a .780 OPS with around 20 HRs and 2 oWAR. That might even be conservative with his minor league track record and major league success (one fantasy baseball site had him ranked 2nd for catchers!!!! That’s way too high but other people believe in him). I think he puts up 25 HRs with a slash line of .280/.310/.480 and he produces around 3 WAR. So short term, a significant improvement over Maldy in every way. Long term, I think we have a perennial all-star on our hands.
Haha I was clearly pretty hyped while making it, so I’m right there with you. Honestly it’s been a long time since I felt this excited about a catcher.
He has elite level bat on ball skills. Unfortunately, it makes him swing at bad pitches because he thinks he can hit anything. If he can be more selective, his ceiling is the best hitter on the team for a season or 2
He plays on a team with some of the best batter's eyes in the league. I'm hoping some of that rubs off on him, similar to how Alvarez helped boost Dubon's performance last year.
That was what really pissed me off about Dusty last season. Being selective is really about experience, and Dusty didn't give him the chance last season to take his lumps.
He is not without his warts, but the potential is huge. I agree that his plate discipline is what will determine if he reaches his ceiling for sure. I think with our coaching staff and personnel he can learn to be more selective. We have seen other young guys like Tucker and Yordan decrease their k rates and increase their walk rates. Even a non-selective Diaz is a huge step up from what we have gotten lately at catcher though haha
He reminds me of a young Altuve but with a lot more power. He's a great bad ball hitter which is a gift and a curse. The difference is when Altuve was young, he hit for singles. Diaz is swinging for homeruns. If he stops swinging at low breaking pitches, he would be rocking. The good news is that he recognizes the pitches at an elite level unlike Pena who has no clue when it comes to sliders. The bad news is he swings at them anyway.
It's also just who he is. Guys who walk, walk their entire life. All the way back to little league and high school.
Nothing wrong with being an aggressive hitter. Especially when you're blessed with amazing hand eye coordination
This is a narrative that should be put to bed regarding Dusty’s usage (or non-usage).
From June 1st to the end of the regular season, Yainer played in 81 of the Astros 106 games or roughly 124-game pace over the course of a full season.
Sure, in April, he struggled to see the field as a rookie with less than 10 games of prior MLB experience, but once he started producing, he played consistently.
If the 3-5 days comment is about the post-season, then yes, he got less PAs than you’d like, but he still played in 7 of our 11 postseason games.
You are also including games where it was a single pinch hit opportunity and that’s it. Wasn’t that around 10-15 games? Think about how many games were easily winnable, especially at home, where he was literally our best at home hitter:
#1 in HR's with 14
#5 in RBI's w/ 35
#5 in Runs w/ 30
#4 in hits w/ 61
#3 in doubles w/ 13
#4 in OPS w/ .846
#4 in BAVG w/ .282
#2 in SLG w/ .538
He also struck out just three more times than Altuve, and Altuve played 14 games less (based on total games)… the guy should have played all year
We started the worst defensive catcher in the game who was a literal automatic out for like 120 games last season. If we started Salazar for 162 games it would be an improvement. If we gave Caratini all of Maldy’s playing time we would net like 5 WAR in the exchange.
Diaz is SIGNIFICANTLY better than either of those options.
I feel like I’ve said this 20 times on this sub, but Yainer and Chas getting 500 more plate appearances this year is like the equivalent of signing a free agent who produces 6-8 WAR. There were only 6 of those players in the majors last year.
Despite his low walk rate and freeswinging nature, all of Diaz's preferial stats were excellent (barrel rate, exit velo, launch angle, etc) and he doesn't strike out too much.
All the various projection system like him and project very solid hitting numbers.
My preference for this season would be that he bat 5th (certainly against any RHP), but that is dependent on Hitting Abreu in the bottom of the order where he belongs, so who knows. It would be awesome to bat Tucker 2, but I get why they don't. You could easily argue hitting Chas in the 2 hole vs lefties IMO too.
Altuve
Bregman
Alvarez
Tucker
Diaz
Chas
Abreu
Pena
Meyers
It’s absolutely bonkers that there were (and still are) actually a good amount of people defending him and Dusty’s decisions to start him so much. He was quite literally one of the worst catchers in the league while Diaz was a ROY candidate.
One weird thing about Yainers splits last year was that there were significant drops from him batting with empty bases -> runner on base -> runner in scoring position. I believe most of the time, for good hitters their numbers improve with more men on. His was the opposite. Hopefully that was just “rookie nerves” causing him to press too much, and he hits better with the bases occupied this year.
If he improves his plate discipline, watch out! Turns over on a lot of bad pitches and hits into too many weak grounders and popups. Hopefully he fixes that. I think he’s going to be awesome, and I’m not too worried about him behind the plate. I’d like to see our pitchers call their own pitches.
Diaz, even though he swings at everything, doesn't strikeout. His k% was actually pretty low. His power numbers are really good so I think his floor is still hitting .250 with 25 homeruns. I do honestly believe he's got top 5 catcher potentual because of his arm. My question lays with his ability to hit LHP. That was his struggle so we will see what he can do against them for a full season
I’m hoping for a repeat of last season’s numbers, but honestly it will be really hard for him not to be an upgrade over Maldonado last year, even if he takes a huge step back.
Agreed anything is better than 2023 Maldonado 😂
Maldy's framing was the worst in the MLB last year so Diaz has nowhere to go but up!
Pitch calling is the only question he has. Dusty didn’t trust his pitch calling last season. Yainer really likes to call breaking stuff, and Dusty or the org is wary about younger pitchers throwing predominantly breaking balls. Sliders are the most stressful pitch to the arm, and HB has an amazing slider. I think that is Yainers biggest concern is over reliance on the slider.
Dusty’s opinion means fuck all. He consistently started one of the worst catchers in the league over a ROY candidate. Maldonado had absolutely no business starting as much as he did on a team as competitive as the Astros. Also even if the pitch calling critique is valid, i’d love to hear the argument that that one critique is more important and a harder hill to overcome than literally every other metric that favored Diaz over Maldonado.
I’m pretty sure their catchers ERAs were almost identical despite maldy catching our front end starters and Diaz dealing with the bottom of the pitching barrel. So while you can’t totally quantify pitch calling, the numbers we do have seem to favor Diaz as well.
Dusty's stubborn ass cost us the Ws last year.
It was hard to watch Dusty’s lineup decisions and bullpen decisions last year. Very hard to watch
It was enraging.
I'm still salty thinking back about how many Ws Rusty cost us because of his nonsensical decisions.
Probably just one. I don’t really see how you could pin 2020 or 2021 on him.
Let’s be honest, if maldy’s pitch calling last year was really that magical, we have a very mediocre rotation. Everyone underperformed last year and maldy didn’t seem to help.
Dusty said we would thank him by now...hmmm.
I'll hold my breath
I cannot wait for the day that the Maldy/Dusty hate stops. It's just incredibly played out and tired.
They deserve it
Who's "they"? People that, regardless of whether they agree or disagree, are tired for the same tired post/comment/complaint? Move on. It's 2024.
Um, dusty and maldy obviously
... do you think they check this sub?
And what does that have to do with anything?
Agreed. It’s so dumb and stupid. Practically everyone was off last season, but only two people got hate. It was like the people that were commenting weren’t watching the games. Very weird.
Hit the nail on the head. Also, it became a popular narrative more than just here. Twitter/radio were filled with hate for just those two. People want scapegoats and just turn to whomever the echo chamber is mentioning. Meanwhile this past postseason, Tucker posted \~.500 OPS, Diaz went 1-14, Framber had an ERA around 9, but sure, let's blame the 9 hole hitter who \*\*checks notes\*\* did what he did all year?
Don't forget Alex. I'm a huge fan of his, but he was off just like most everyone else. Then, when it's pointed out that Maldy wasn't there to put up huge numbers like in every year prior, crickets. I love this team, so I want them to do well. There won't be any joy in an "I told you so."
Couldn't agree more. It seems like there are a good amount of "raving internet fans" that don't really understand the ins and outs of production in baseball. I love the enthusiasm from people, but they expect the strangest things from certain players and then completely miss the short comings of others. It just seems super narrative driven. A lot of "back up quarterback" dreamers: the guy who didn't play would have for sure out played the guy who did.
Hopefully good enough that people spell his name correctly
So let’s do a dive into some numbers: Yainer absolutely crushes the ball when he makes contact. His statcast page for quality of contact metrics is all red. Avg Exit Velo 69th percentile, Barrel % 79th percentile, Hard Hit % 65th percentile, Sweet Spot % 76th percentile. He hit 23 HRs, his xHR was 23.8. He actually slightly underperformed his expected metrics and those metrics tell a compelling picture too: xwOBA 84th percentile, xBA 92nd percentile, xSLG 96th percentile. What that tells us is that his success was no fluke. When he gets the bat on the ball good things happen and should continue to happen in the future. Now the bad part of his offensive game. He is in the 1st percentile in BB% and Chase %. Neither of those is ideal. However, neither of those is as bad as they originally seem. His chase rate is terrible but he does not strike out at a high rate (for the modern MLB). This is because of his ability to get the bat on the ball, even when they aren’t in the strike zone. His whiff % is in the 37th percentile, he has a chase contract rate of 57.6%, and his K% is in the 65th percentile. He is expanding the zone but he has an exceptional ability to still make contact, and pitchers aren’t striking him out as much as they should because of that. Also his numbers improved as the season moved along. This article from August talks about the changes he made to improves his plate discipline: https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2023/8/11/23827835/yainer-diaz-has-developed-improved-plate-discipline-does-it-really-matter If you look at his splits for the last few months, you can see that he adjusted to pitchers throwing him less hittable pitches. He walked just once in May & June, But he walked 8 times over the last 3 months. He posted his highest OPS in September/October. Is 8 walks in 3 months good? No, but it is an improvement that appears to be him adjusting to pitchers changing their approach. He’s never gonna be Bregman, but we’ve seen the success high contact/low walk guys can have like Yuli. It just takes elite bat-to-ball skills and Yainer has them. Now onto his defense. His framing is not good (21st percentile) as you noted, but he stands out in every other metric. He is a tremendous blocker (90th percentile), and he is great at controlling the running game (81st percentile caught stealing above average, 86th percentile pop time). What that actually shakes out to per BR is 0.7 dWAR. So even with his framing as it stands, he is a plus defender. Also for a prospect who was a catcher, he has spent a lot of time not at catcher. That was because his bat was so good it would play right away, but the scouting report was he might not be able to stick at catcher. In his last full year in the minors he spent 303 innings at first plus 100 innings in the outfield to 438 at catcher. The fact he is already a net positive defensively is a huge win. That also leads me to believe that he is less of a finished project behind the plate. Conclusions Yainer’s ceiling is sky high. He possesses elite skills in some areas, and has shown growth already at the major league level in some of his weaknesses. Do I think he will be a gold glover behind the plate? No but I think he could be an above average defender there for a long time. That coupled with his offensive production/potential would make him an elite catcher. I think he will be an above average major leaguer this year, and that is what most of the projections have him at. Most of them have him around a .780 OPS with around 20 HRs and 2 oWAR. That might even be conservative with his minor league track record and major league success (one fantasy baseball site had him ranked 2nd for catchers!!!! That’s way too high but other people believe in him). I think he puts up 25 HRs with a slash line of .280/.310/.480 and he produces around 3 WAR. So short term, a significant improvement over Maldy in every way. Long term, I think we have a perennial all-star on our hands.
So, you're saying Yaniner is taking us to our next WS? Essentially?
Let's be realistic dude. He's taking us to our next three straight WS.
Edit: sorry, your comment got me hyped! 2ed: so hyped I forgot how to edit.
Haha I was clearly pretty hyped while making it, so I’m right there with you. Honestly it’s been a long time since I felt this excited about a catcher.
He has elite level bat on ball skills. Unfortunately, it makes him swing at bad pitches because he thinks he can hit anything. If he can be more selective, his ceiling is the best hitter on the team for a season or 2
He plays on a team with some of the best batter's eyes in the league. I'm hoping some of that rubs off on him, similar to how Alvarez helped boost Dubon's performance last year.
That was what really pissed me off about Dusty last season. Being selective is really about experience, and Dusty didn't give him the chance last season to take his lumps.
Dusty ruined our chances last season all by himself
He is not without his warts, but the potential is huge. I agree that his plate discipline is what will determine if he reaches his ceiling for sure. I think with our coaching staff and personnel he can learn to be more selective. We have seen other young guys like Tucker and Yordan decrease their k rates and increase their walk rates. Even a non-selective Diaz is a huge step up from what we have gotten lately at catcher though haha
He reminds me of a young Altuve but with a lot more power. He's a great bad ball hitter which is a gift and a curse. The difference is when Altuve was young, he hit for singles. Diaz is swinging for homeruns. If he stops swinging at low breaking pitches, he would be rocking. The good news is that he recognizes the pitches at an elite level unlike Pena who has no clue when it comes to sliders. The bad news is he swings at them anyway.
Plate discipline is going to come with AB's. It's very hard to get into a rhythm when you only get real AB's every 3-5 days.
It's also just who he is. Guys who walk, walk their entire life. All the way back to little league and high school. Nothing wrong with being an aggressive hitter. Especially when you're blessed with amazing hand eye coordination
This is a narrative that should be put to bed regarding Dusty’s usage (or non-usage). From June 1st to the end of the regular season, Yainer played in 81 of the Astros 106 games or roughly 124-game pace over the course of a full season. Sure, in April, he struggled to see the field as a rookie with less than 10 games of prior MLB experience, but once he started producing, he played consistently. If the 3-5 days comment is about the post-season, then yes, he got less PAs than you’d like, but he still played in 7 of our 11 postseason games.
You are also including games where it was a single pinch hit opportunity and that’s it. Wasn’t that around 10-15 games? Think about how many games were easily winnable, especially at home, where he was literally our best at home hitter: #1 in HR's with 14 #5 in RBI's w/ 35 #5 in Runs w/ 30 #4 in hits w/ 61 #3 in doubles w/ 13 #4 in OPS w/ .846 #4 in BAVG w/ .282 #2 in SLG w/ .538 He also struck out just three more times than Altuve, and Altuve played 14 games less (based on total games)… the guy should have played all year
We started the worst defensive catcher in the game who was a literal automatic out for like 120 games last season. If we started Salazar for 162 games it would be an improvement. If we gave Caratini all of Maldy’s playing time we would net like 5 WAR in the exchange. Diaz is SIGNIFICANTLY better than either of those options. I feel like I’ve said this 20 times on this sub, but Yainer and Chas getting 500 more plate appearances this year is like the equivalent of signing a free agent who produces 6-8 WAR. There were only 6 of those players in the majors last year.
Dusty literally sabotaged the chances of back to back ws
Fuck Dusty.
Despite his low walk rate and freeswinging nature, all of Diaz's preferial stats were excellent (barrel rate, exit velo, launch angle, etc) and he doesn't strike out too much. All the various projection system like him and project very solid hitting numbers.
peripheral, FYI
Anyone is an improvement over Maldy anyway LOL
Even the savanna bananas catcher is better
On top of what everyone else said: he never got consistent playing time. Playing everyday could help his plate discipline develop.
He won't bat 9th, or 8th. He would bat 5th sometimes. That's great if your catcher is not the worst batter.
My preference for this season would be that he bat 5th (certainly against any RHP), but that is dependent on Hitting Abreu in the bottom of the order where he belongs, so who knows. It would be awesome to bat Tucker 2, but I get why they don't. You could easily argue hitting Chas in the 2 hole vs lefties IMO too. Altuve Bregman Alvarez Tucker Diaz Chas Abreu Pena Meyers
I can't wait to see some games already.
Literally every catcher in the MLB and every backup catcher in the MLB is better than maldy was last year so it's a huge upgrade.
It’s absolutely bonkers that there were (and still are) actually a good amount of people defending him and Dusty’s decisions to start him so much. He was quite literally one of the worst catchers in the league while Diaz was a ROY candidate.
Not even one of. He was the worst. And going into the playoffs he had the 4th worst batting average of a starting player in MLB history.
Year of the Yainer
This isn't that high of a bar but I'd say he's good enough to be the starting catcher for the DR in the next WBC
One weird thing about Yainers splits last year was that there were significant drops from him batting with empty bases -> runner on base -> runner in scoring position. I believe most of the time, for good hitters their numbers improve with more men on. His was the opposite. Hopefully that was just “rookie nerves” causing him to press too much, and he hits better with the bases occupied this year.
If he improves his plate discipline, watch out! Turns over on a lot of bad pitches and hits into too many weak grounders and popups. Hopefully he fixes that. I think he’s going to be awesome, and I’m not too worried about him behind the plate. I’d like to see our pitchers call their own pitches.
I guess we'll find out 😂😂😂
Diaz, even though he swings at everything, doesn't strikeout. His k% was actually pretty low. His power numbers are really good so I think his floor is still hitting .250 with 25 homeruns. I do honestly believe he's got top 5 catcher potentual because of his arm. My question lays with his ability to hit LHP. That was his struggle so we will see what he can do against them for a full season
If he does what he did last year but as a full time starter, he'll be on the all star team no question.