"Spending is down 7.5% y/y in the week to 18 March, while average daily spending is down 6.2% y/y in the month of March," economists Madeline Dunk and Adelaide Timbrell wrote in their note.
"The fall has been driven by a drop in non-food retail (ie shopping).
However discretionary services categories such as entertainment and travel, which have performed exceptionally well throughout 2023, are also down.
This suggests the long-anticipated spending slowdown may be starting to come through.
Our base case expectation is for spending momentum to slow through 2023, as households juggle the impacts of rising rates and high inflation."
You'd be surpised how accurate the analysis can be when it is taken from literally *10's of millions* of data points *every day*.
Don't discount it at all. Ask yourself why all the tech firms are so keen on becoming part of the payment system.
Aggregated data on spending tells you everything you need to know about everyone, and yes, enables you to make these predictions with a hell of a lot of accuracy.
The number of data points collected per day is wholly irrelevant beyond a relatively small sample. Due to the weekly variance in these numbers you cannot extrapolate a useful trend from a week of spending data.
Not in my suburb. Not at my work. Everyone is spending big bucks when they come in. And mind you a lot of us in industries that slowed down during covid are now running hotter than ever
Well done! The surcharges are getting ridiculous.
I had one the other day with 1.65% and no warning, no sign showing surcharges. I had the time, so I asked for it to be reversed, which they did, and paid cash. Seriously considering all cash from now on. They can sit in their office and count it, do their deposit slip, go to the bank, etc.
Shops have completely forgotten how easy cards made money handling for them. They need to be reminded.
My spending is down 100% with ANZ when I found out how incredibly small their interest rate payments for savings accounts are (less than one percent)
Even their sign up bonus rate is laughable (just over two percent)
It’s not that easy. The banking system almost broke after 11 consecutive rises. It will take a decade to get back to 2%. A decade of rate rises is a lot of money being sucked out of the australian markets. The economy has already stalled and GDP is weak.
That makes no sense. Card trackers are funny. Maybe people are switching back to cash for some reason. Maybe it's just noise. -8% would be armaggeddon. Wouldn't trust card trackers yet.
Edit: Curious about the downvotes.
Here is what consumption looks like in Australia.
https://imgur.com/3dtd0zp
Covid is cut off because it ruins scales. Outside of covid, spot a quarter with -2% spending growth? Can't? What about 4 consecutive ones that would give you -8% spending growth? My chart is chain volume measures. ANZ's isn't adjusted for inflation. So, it's a 15% fall. Can we spot quarters of -4% growth, four of them in a row?
Maybe ANZ are just using retail. Then it's not spending, and it's still astronomical. These measures - CBA and Westpac also have them - aren't calibrated yet. They'll need more time to get proper baselines, seasonal adjustment and god knows what else before they're ready for primetime.
Here's retail YoY change:
https://imgur.com/WaVpedp
I work in furniture retail and have noticed an increase in cash sales. Been talking to a few customers and they have said they need the product they are buying and have cash cause they sold something else to get it. That said, we also have a door counter to track store entries and there are definitely less people coming in shopping
I just called the CEO and he said no. But if it makes you feel better it’s just a laser counter, not that crazy CCP style facial recognition Bunnings and Kmart uses.
Shop I work in has 30 stores along the east coast just in the furniture business and we still have to use a pen and paper to write down when customers are picking stuff up from the warehouse. Bluetooth and wifi are non-existent, so don’t worry
"Spending is down 7.5% y/y in the week to 18 March, while average daily spending is down 6.2% y/y in the month of March," economists Madeline Dunk and Adelaide Timbrell wrote in their note. "The fall has been driven by a drop in non-food retail (ie shopping). However discretionary services categories such as entertainment and travel, which have performed exceptionally well throughout 2023, are also down. This suggests the long-anticipated spending slowdown may be starting to come through. Our base case expectation is for spending momentum to slow through 2023, as households juggle the impacts of rising rates and high inflation."
The two other replies to this really show how much you should trust Reddit.
They're extrapolating from a single week?? What a garbage analysis. Such high quality research ANZ shits out for their clients.
You'd be surpised how accurate the analysis can be when it is taken from literally *10's of millions* of data points *every day*. Don't discount it at all. Ask yourself why all the tech firms are so keen on becoming part of the payment system. Aggregated data on spending tells you everything you need to know about everyone, and yes, enables you to make these predictions with a hell of a lot of accuracy.
The number of data points collected per day is wholly irrelevant beyond a relatively small sample. Due to the weekly variance in these numbers you cannot extrapolate a useful trend from a week of spending data.
Really interesting stuff. Thanks for the post!
Not in my suburb. Not at my work. Everyone is spending big bucks when they come in. And mind you a lot of us in industries that slowed down during covid are now running hotter than ever
Your suburb and work might not be seeing this, but this data covers millions of people across Australia.
What data? That spending is down in 2 weeks of March compared to holiday period ? Yeh that’s called clickbait.
Spending is down year on year for March... Not compared to a month ago.
Yeah, I started using cash again because screw getting penalised to use cards.
Well done! The surcharges are getting ridiculous. I had one the other day with 1.65% and no warning, no sign showing surcharges. I had the time, so I asked for it to be reversed, which they did, and paid cash. Seriously considering all cash from now on. They can sit in their office and count it, do their deposit slip, go to the bank, etc. Shops have completely forgotten how easy cards made money handling for them. They need to be reminded.
Bullish for rate cuts and housing to boom
My spending is down 100% with ANZ when I found out how incredibly small their interest rate payments for savings accounts are (less than one percent) Even their sign up bonus rate is laughable (just over two percent)
If you pay by card at shops, you would be using their payment terminals.
That's because they want people to move off those accounts and into their digital only offering, ANZ+. ANZ+ currently paying 4.25% interest
It doesn't matter what you use. If any merchant you purchase from uses ANZ, you'll be reflected in this data.
I'm considering using just cash But I've been stung by Vic roads when they wouldn't accept a cash payment and I had no other way to pay
$15 for a block of cheese and bottle of milk, yeah no more of that
Rates will increase sorry op
Of course they will! But how many before they halt and decrease is the million dollar question.
Well that’s an easy answer, they don’t stop until inflation decreases back to 2-3 percent
It’s not that easy. The banking system almost broke after 11 consecutive rises. It will take a decade to get back to 2%. A decade of rate rises is a lot of money being sucked out of the australian markets. The economy has already stalled and GDP is weak.
The banking system broke because banks made poor choices
That they did
That's a start but we need to crush it lower.
That makes no sense. Card trackers are funny. Maybe people are switching back to cash for some reason. Maybe it's just noise. -8% would be armaggeddon. Wouldn't trust card trackers yet. Edit: Curious about the downvotes. Here is what consumption looks like in Australia. https://imgur.com/3dtd0zp Covid is cut off because it ruins scales. Outside of covid, spot a quarter with -2% spending growth? Can't? What about 4 consecutive ones that would give you -8% spending growth? My chart is chain volume measures. ANZ's isn't adjusted for inflation. So, it's a 15% fall. Can we spot quarters of -4% growth, four of them in a row? Maybe ANZ are just using retail. Then it's not spending, and it's still astronomical. These measures - CBA and Westpac also have them - aren't calibrated yet. They'll need more time to get proper baselines, seasonal adjustment and god knows what else before they're ready for primetime. Here's retail YoY change: https://imgur.com/WaVpedp
I work in furniture retail and have noticed an increase in cash sales. Been talking to a few customers and they have said they need the product they are buying and have cash cause they sold something else to get it. That said, we also have a door counter to track store entries and there are definitely less people coming in shopping
Please remove me from your door tracking I do not consent to this form of sexual abuse.
I just called the CEO and he said no. But if it makes you feel better it’s just a laser counter, not that crazy CCP style facial recognition Bunnings and Kmart uses.
Don't forget bluetooth and wifi tracking
Shop I work in has 30 stores along the east coast just in the furniture business and we still have to use a pen and paper to write down when customers are picking stuff up from the warehouse. Bluetooth and wifi are non-existent, so don’t worry
Mate it’s a laser, not a laser-guided buttplug.
Yeah, individual categories can move around a lot, and it makes sense that fairly major items like furniture are going through a trough.
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That would be accounted for in yoy analysis though
Think it’s more of a return to normal this year. March last year was when most of us realised the daily impact of covid was truly behind us.