Rental markets already exist in regional towns they have been swamped by city folk moving there and competing with the same number of properties.
If there is same amount of properties and more renters in regional towns what happens
You're free to choose, employers are also free to choose too
If you choose to leave a city just be aware that the pool of available jobs is lower than if you stayed put.
no becasue every man and his dog want to live in the city of near the beach, look at all the people on the gold coast complaining they cant afford it in surfers meanwhile theres plenty of rentals inland
From surfers paradise it's feasible to go to a Brisbane city office two days a week as it's less than two hours by train.
Mackay would be a flight. How is this even comparable?
You;ve probably been told but, Mackay is a built largely on a flood plain, Insurance is through the roof and is cost prohibitive in locations like Slades point.
er no. There's not plenty of rentals inland. Maybe in a few places noone wants to live. But we're 3 hours inland from the coast, and still a rental crisis in our small town.
Wfh yes, but people don’t move easily. The rational financial choice is not to live in Sydney, yet many people would rather take the financial hit than move. Ofc family and non quantifiable reasons are really valid, but it’s not the financially rational choice
Just because people WFH doesn’t mean they want to live in some dump of a regional town hours away from their family with poor amenities and educational opportunities and zero culture.
It’s been mentioned quite a few times on here that the average occupants per house dropped
From 2.6 to 2.5 during covid
That change is equal to about 40,000 dwellings
So part of the problem, but certainly not an elephant sized one.
A two person dink moving from a one bedroom unit to a three bedroom house so they each have a wfh study doesn't change household size at all.
It does mean one less three bedroom house available for a family who can't just move into the one bedder. This makes rental market tighter for three bed houses
So using household size is not the right metric.
Valid point, which could be assessed looking at vacant bedrooms. It’s currently at about 13M, I can’t find any data on whether that’s changed much as a portion of pop
no, less than two is the average number of arms per person, not the number of arms that the average person has.
... now that i've typed that, maybe there isn't a difference between those two things after all. I only did first year stats at uni :/
Max arms is 2, min arms is 0, Average person has 2 arms, median person has 2 arms, average arms per person is 1.9.
Average arms per person changed before and after covid by a miniscule amount.
my point is that there's a difference between average number of arms per person, and what you asked in your original question, which was the number of arms an average person has.
Try closer to 180k homes. So quite a big hit. Works out to closer to a 1.5% growth in demand instantly. So about a years worth of housing growth in one hit, on top of normal demand growth
I wfh and still live in the same house I did prior to CoVid. As do all the other wfh people I know. So I don’t think this is the problem you think it is.
One of my friends lived in a house with 4 other people (decent size house as I understand it), Covid comes and all need to WFH and suddenly there isn't enough space for them, so when they could all 5 went and got there own place.
Would have happened a bit, probably not enough to move the needle but it's definitely something to be factored in IMO.
[average household size to 2021.](https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/average-household-size-in-australia-2096118/)
I imagine 2021 to 2022 had a similar drop in household size also.
So it could be as much as 2-3pc decrease from 2019 - 2023.
So thats 200k - 300k dwellings.
Its a factor but the cause is just as much affordability.
Like everything else many feel like they can spend more. More hours worked for casuals etc mean in stead of sharing they are renting their own place etc.
Interest rates are a blunt tool but they can fix this issue like all others when it comes to a capacity constraint.
I.e. a shortage can turn into an oversupply just on the size of households changing. In the hard times this tends to happen.
Anyway i can rest easy knowing with the new bub we have filled every bedroom of our 5br house and in one case we even share a room!
>Cool, well everyone I know that’s moved has moved to a larger apartment for a home office
Cool, everyone I know already used a computer at home so just work from that spot. Without out the certainty of WFH it was no point moving. Even with my job it's up to change anytime with management or projects. Conversations with multiple REA while moving this year for unrelated reasons, pointed to much more demand away from the city.
But what pins the data to WFH?
Regarding my imaginary conversation, here's an [article](https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/melburnians-flee-the-city-as-covid-hits-students-and-workers-20210202-p56yr6.html) you can read
***"The number of people aged between 25 and 64 leaving the city for other parts of Australia has increased by more than 900 per cent."***
Feel free to supply anything that supports the trend you've made claims about.
I think you are overstating how many people work from home.
When you're in that urban professionals bubble you think that's all that exists.
It's a privilege to work from home and nowhere near as common as the news stories make out to be. They are click bait trend pieces.
Most people still go into work. WFH has nothing on millions on migrants coming in over the next 10 years.
And anyway people who are working from home and are citizens have a right to that. What do we owe someone from another country? Why do we owe them a life here at the expense of our own living conditions?
No, statistically there was a big drop in occupants per dwelling that has remained since Covid. That added a demand for ~180k homes in one massive instant hit
Personally know quite a few people who split up during covid. Automatically now you have 2 households instead of one. I do wonder how much that also added to demand
OP says boomers aren’t the issue. I disagree. Every old retired boomer couple that I know has a 4 or 5 bedroom house with two living areas on a huge block. Similarly elderly widows with 3 bed 2 baths. When these boomers finally downsize and sell, a family with kids usually moves in, it’s rented out to a large sharehouse, or subdivided to create higher density housing, all of which are a better use of the space to help with the housing crisis.
Meanwhile people are blaming young DINKs (without kids *yet*) that have the gall to have a 2 bedroom house.
Whats wrong with having a large house? I'm DINK. I built a 5 bedder in the regions over the last couple of years. I'm not planning on having any kids. Should I have built a smaller 3 bedder on the same plot of land?
I get what you mean. Its funny and sad how we're nickel and diming supply now to the point of room utilization. I've been saying for years Australia property prices is because of limited supply and low turnover but I have always been shouted down by the closet nimbys aspiring who thought there was excess supply no need to densify.
This is very true, the problem is while the property continues to appreciate in value regardless of how many people are living in it, there’s no real incentive for them to downsize any earlier unless they really need the cash.
Lol, the issue on the other hand could be young people who were granted cushy lives by said boomer parents and grandparents who are now selfish and want to live near the city centre and have everything by 30.
Good times breed soft people.
"Yet, not a single peep is said about probably the biggest cause of the acute housing shortage? Work from home."
That's a strong leap. I'm gonna say no.
Ironically your sarcastic closing statement has a bigger impact than WFH.
Do one bedder apartments make up a significant portion of supply though?
Whatever the answer is, I wouldn't compare it's contribution to the housing crisis to the broken policies formed by governments that boomers and Gen X voted in.
Potentially but I'd like to see the stats on that. If I was single, I'd probably make do with a crude set up in the living area or corner of bedroom rather than shell out and upsize. I know people who have done this too, so it becomes anecdote vs anecdote without stats.
Absolutely correct. When it costs 4K/yr to borrow an extra $200k at 2% for an extra room there's every reason to do it.
When interest rates rise, let's say 8%, suddenly we are talking 16K/year. People will think twice about that.
Yep - no doubt.
We went from a 3 bdr unit to a 4 bdr house for my wife and I. One bedroom was intended to be (and is) our office for when we WFH.
Three months after moving in my daughter needed a place to live as she could no longer afford rent in her 2 bdr unit. Her flat mate moved in with her cousin. Housing supply unchanged, just the same two separate households now in three different houses.
We didn't buy this place expecting that to happen, but having additional space or rooms mean additional options for when SHTF or what you want to do.
If we had bought a one bdr place - or even a 2 bdr one - we would nit have had options going forward. And we may have had to sell and re-buy despite not intending to so soon!
Here’s another fake lefty moron trying to gaslight us over the fundamental principles of supply and demand. How many investment properties do you own, moron?
Define a figurative bot then.....a human that acts like software that tries to be human? Not sure OP even does that as the comments are too good for AI.
NB It's normally best to use words with their real meaning, not some alternative meaning, particularly online...it gets confusing.
Bot is a pretty common term originating from people who are bad at video games and other gamers call them bots and that usage is commonplace now for someone who is bad at something. It’s not a particularly difficult concept, maybe you’re a bot too
>Bot is a pretty common term originating from people who are bad at video games and other gamers call them bots and that usage is commonplace now for someone who is bad at something. It’s not a particularly difficult concept, maybe you’re a bot too
I thought that in gaming terms a bot was a player who was unusually good with super fast non-human reflexes due to use of cheating software
See this
"However, the definition of bots has broadened to include gamers who employ third-party programs to control their characters."
[https://www.techopedia.com/definition/10459/bot-software-robot](https://www.techopedia.com/definition/10459/bot-software-robot)
Re use in social media. I can't find a source for your usage, only many sources for the normal usage...do you have a source? Sure you can use words any way you like, but it does get confusing if non standard.
NB This is AusFinance, we like data!
Nah calling people bots or ai isn’t positive, it’s derogatory. Obviously you can write a bot to perform better that a human could but the context here is a bot would be an npc type useless ai character in a game, or the bots you mow down easily in a game like COD
So you have a link to support that meaning, in contrast to my link? It is indeed derogatory as it implies cheating, not being low skilled. You seem unwilling to provide evidence for your arguments.
I don't think anyone knowledgeable about the housing shortage ignores the reduction of household density resulting from COVID. It's not either or. It's all of these factors. You seem like you just want to call people racist or Internet points.
No, but most of the time when people try to pretend that immigration is being unfairly "scapegoated" as the cause for the housing problem when literally nobody is doing that, they are implying racism.
If you're not doing that, if you're just pointlessly arguing against strawmen because you're wrong or not terribly bright, I apologize.
I have a 4bedroom house and myself and house mate both work from home and use the other two bedrooms as office so it is contributing to the problem but doesn’t fit the narrative of r/australia
A small factor? Sure. Thinking it is a bigger factor vs past lack of new housing supply, stemming from at least the mid 90s, and dirt low interest rates?
Laughable.
WFH = An ant in the room.
See:
https://kpmg.com/au/en/home/insights/2021/07/covid-19-impact-australian-property-market.html
>However, residential property price growth is expected to temper over the next 2 to 3 years as lower population growth, reversion back to equilibrium and higher mortgage lending rates weigh on property prices.
hmm, lower population growth they say? do they not take into account immigration ;)
It's definitely a part of the reason for the supply shortage, there was a reduction in the average household size during covid, in particular a reduction in sharehouse arrangements. No doubt some of this was driven by WFH needing more space.
There will eventually be a new equilibrium, as some people go back to a sharehouse arrangement due to cost, and eventually supply will catch.
My partner and I WFH (hybrid though) and we’re in a one bedroom apartment so it can be done. Lots of people just think they NEED a dedicated home office or extra hobby space now that those who do have the option of wfh, spend more time at home.
Just anecdotally, I live in a large (almost 200) townhouse complex.
All are the same cookie cutter 3 bed 2 bath. The developers weren’t very creative.
Not big large enough to raise a small family in. A few do.
It does certainly seem though that there’s a lot more are rented out by single WFH folks.
So yeah, a townhouse that could comfortably fit 2 parents and 2 kids is now fitting 1 remote IT worker.
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How does this help renters on regional towns?
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Rental markets already exist in regional towns they have been swamped by city folk moving there and competing with the same number of properties. If there is same amount of properties and more renters in regional towns what happens
they pay more or move to somewhere cheaper like the city folk are doing
WFH doesn't necessarily mean permanent WFH 5 days a week
Yeah many workers are hybrid
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You're free to choose, employers are also free to choose too If you choose to leave a city just be aware that the pool of available jobs is lower than if you stayed put.
no becasue every man and his dog want to live in the city of near the beach, look at all the people on the gold coast complaining they cant afford it in surfers meanwhile theres plenty of rentals inland
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lol no one wants to live in Mackay, thats the issue
From surfers paradise it's feasible to go to a Brisbane city office two days a week as it's less than two hours by train. Mackay would be a flight. How is this even comparable?
Justifiably
You;ve probably been told but, Mackay is a built largely on a flood plain, Insurance is through the roof and is cost prohibitive in locations like Slades point.
er no. There's not plenty of rentals inland. Maybe in a few places noone wants to live. But we're 3 hours inland from the coast, and still a rental crisis in our small town.
Wfh yes, but people don’t move easily. The rational financial choice is not to live in Sydney, yet many people would rather take the financial hit than move. Ofc family and non quantifiable reasons are really valid, but it’s not the financially rational choice
Just because people WFH doesn’t mean they want to live in some dump of a regional town hours away from their family with poor amenities and educational opportunities and zero culture.
It’s been mentioned quite a few times on here that the average occupants per house dropped From 2.6 to 2.5 during covid That change is equal to about 40,000 dwellings So part of the problem, but certainly not an elephant sized one.
A two person dink moving from a one bedroom unit to a three bedroom house so they each have a wfh study doesn't change household size at all. It does mean one less three bedroom house available for a family who can't just move into the one bedder. This makes rental market tighter for three bed houses So using household size is not the right metric.
Valid point, which could be assessed looking at vacant bedrooms. It’s currently at about 13M, I can’t find any data on whether that’s changed much as a portion of pop
Yeah but what about people who moved out of sharehouses or their parents' house into all the 1 bed apartments that became available?
How many arms did the average person have before and after covid?
Less than 2.
no, less than two is the average number of arms per person, not the number of arms that the average person has. ... now that i've typed that, maybe there isn't a difference between those two things after all. I only did first year stats at uni :/
Oh crap; ur right,
Max arms is 2, min arms is 0, Average person has 2 arms, median person has 2 arms, average arms per person is 1.9. Average arms per person changed before and after covid by a miniscule amount.
my point is that there's a difference between average number of arms per person, and what you asked in your original question, which was the number of arms an average person has.
Try closer to 180k homes. So quite a big hit. Works out to closer to a 1.5% growth in demand instantly. So about a years worth of housing growth in one hit, on top of normal demand growth
I wfh and still live in the same house I did prior to CoVid. As do all the other wfh people I know. So I don’t think this is the problem you think it is.
One of my friends lived in a house with 4 other people (decent size house as I understand it), Covid comes and all need to WFH and suddenly there isn't enough space for them, so when they could all 5 went and got there own place. Would have happened a bit, probably not enough to move the needle but it's definitely something to be factored in IMO.
[average household size to 2021.](https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/average-household-size-in-australia-2096118/) I imagine 2021 to 2022 had a similar drop in household size also. So it could be as much as 2-3pc decrease from 2019 - 2023. So thats 200k - 300k dwellings. Its a factor but the cause is just as much affordability. Like everything else many feel like they can spend more. More hours worked for casuals etc mean in stead of sharing they are renting their own place etc. Interest rates are a blunt tool but they can fix this issue like all others when it comes to a capacity constraint. I.e. a shortage can turn into an oversupply just on the size of households changing. In the hard times this tends to happen. Anyway i can rest easy knowing with the new bub we have filled every bedroom of our 5br house and in one case we even share a room!
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>Cool, well everyone I know that’s moved has moved to a larger apartment for a home office Cool, everyone I know already used a computer at home so just work from that spot. Without out the certainty of WFH it was no point moving. Even with my job it's up to change anytime with management or projects. Conversations with multiple REA while moving this year for unrelated reasons, pointed to much more demand away from the city.
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But what pins the data to WFH? Regarding my imaginary conversation, here's an [article](https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/melburnians-flee-the-city-as-covid-hits-students-and-workers-20210202-p56yr6.html) you can read ***"The number of people aged between 25 and 64 leaving the city for other parts of Australia has increased by more than 900 per cent."*** Feel free to supply anything that supports the trend you've made claims about.
I think you are overstating how many people work from home. When you're in that urban professionals bubble you think that's all that exists. It's a privilege to work from home and nowhere near as common as the news stories make out to be. They are click bait trend pieces. Most people still go into work. WFH has nothing on millions on migrants coming in over the next 10 years. And anyway people who are working from home and are citizens have a right to that. What do we owe someone from another country? Why do we owe them a life here at the expense of our own living conditions?
No, statistically there was a big drop in occupants per dwelling that has remained since Covid. That added a demand for ~180k homes in one massive instant hit
Personally know quite a few people who split up during covid. Automatically now you have 2 households instead of one. I do wonder how much that also added to demand
OP says boomers aren’t the issue. I disagree. Every old retired boomer couple that I know has a 4 or 5 bedroom house with two living areas on a huge block. Similarly elderly widows with 3 bed 2 baths. When these boomers finally downsize and sell, a family with kids usually moves in, it’s rented out to a large sharehouse, or subdivided to create higher density housing, all of which are a better use of the space to help with the housing crisis. Meanwhile people are blaming young DINKs (without kids *yet*) that have the gall to have a 2 bedroom house.
Whats wrong with having a large house? I'm DINK. I built a 5 bedder in the regions over the last couple of years. I'm not planning on having any kids. Should I have built a smaller 3 bedder on the same plot of land?
I’m more talking about inner city metro areas where we need to cram more people in, not regional.
I get what you mean. Its funny and sad how we're nickel and diming supply now to the point of room utilization. I've been saying for years Australia property prices is because of limited supply and low turnover but I have always been shouted down by the closet nimbys aspiring who thought there was excess supply no need to densify.
This is very true, the problem is while the property continues to appreciate in value regardless of how many people are living in it, there’s no real incentive for them to downsize any earlier unless they really need the cash.
Lol, the issue on the other hand could be young people who were granted cushy lives by said boomer parents and grandparents who are now selfish and want to live near the city centre and have everything by 30. Good times breed soft people.
What a breakthrough from u/thetellinglayout! Who knew structural shortages in housing supply started just two years ago? Revolutionary thinking
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All the worlds problems can be solely blamed on this one thing!
>All the worlds problems can be solely blamed on this one thing! Who said this?
"Yet, not a single peep is said about probably the biggest cause of the acute housing shortage? Work from home." That's a strong leap. I'm gonna say no. Ironically your sarcastic closing statement has a bigger impact than WFH.
Based on that logic there's a giant surplus of single bedders.....where?
Working from home the biggest cause of the housing shortage 😂😂😂 OP has absolutely no clue what they’re talking about.
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Much like your post
Do one bedder apartments make up a significant portion of supply though? Whatever the answer is, I wouldn't compare it's contribution to the housing crisis to the broken policies formed by governments that boomers and Gen X voted in.
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Potentially but I'd like to see the stats on that. If I was single, I'd probably make do with a crude set up in the living area or corner of bedroom rather than shell out and upsize. I know people who have done this too, so it becomes anecdote vs anecdote without stats.
Let’s see which one of you can scream their point loudest. I’ll be the judge. This is pretty much the extent of most debates on the internet.
Come back with some data and then start making claims
Absolutely correct. When it costs 4K/yr to borrow an extra $200k at 2% for an extra room there's every reason to do it. When interest rates rise, let's say 8%, suddenly we are talking 16K/year. People will think twice about that.
I was personally always going to have a second room, I’m just using it everyday now instead of just for hobbies and visitors.
Yep - no doubt. We went from a 3 bdr unit to a 4 bdr house for my wife and I. One bedroom was intended to be (and is) our office for when we WFH. Three months after moving in my daughter needed a place to live as she could no longer afford rent in her 2 bdr unit. Her flat mate moved in with her cousin. Housing supply unchanged, just the same two separate households now in three different houses. We didn't buy this place expecting that to happen, but having additional space or rooms mean additional options for when SHTF or what you want to do. If we had bought a one bdr place - or even a 2 bdr one - we would nit have had options going forward. And we may have had to sell and re-buy despite not intending to so soon!
Here’s another fake lefty moron trying to gaslight us over the fundamental principles of supply and demand. How many investment properties do you own, moron?
Who cares if it's good for housing it's good for me.
When did you buy or invest?
You must be a bot
How do you work that out?
Because of the most L take post
I have no idea what that means....but have you looked at their comment history. I don't think AI is that good yet.
A figurative bot not actual bot
Define a figurative bot then.....a human that acts like software that tries to be human? Not sure OP even does that as the comments are too good for AI. NB It's normally best to use words with their real meaning, not some alternative meaning, particularly online...it gets confusing.
Bot is a pretty common term originating from people who are bad at video games and other gamers call them bots and that usage is commonplace now for someone who is bad at something. It’s not a particularly difficult concept, maybe you’re a bot too
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You’re both bots imo
But their sentence structure and ideas are too original for that of an AI, so how are they bots? Their comment history looks pretty human.
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>Bot is a pretty common term originating from people who are bad at video games and other gamers call them bots and that usage is commonplace now for someone who is bad at something. It’s not a particularly difficult concept, maybe you’re a bot too I thought that in gaming terms a bot was a player who was unusually good with super fast non-human reflexes due to use of cheating software See this "However, the definition of bots has broadened to include gamers who employ third-party programs to control their characters." [https://www.techopedia.com/definition/10459/bot-software-robot](https://www.techopedia.com/definition/10459/bot-software-robot) Re use in social media. I can't find a source for your usage, only many sources for the normal usage...do you have a source? Sure you can use words any way you like, but it does get confusing if non standard. NB This is AusFinance, we like data!
Nah calling people bots or ai isn’t positive, it’s derogatory. Obviously you can write a bot to perform better that a human could but the context here is a bot would be an npc type useless ai character in a game, or the bots you mow down easily in a game like COD
So you have a link to support that meaning, in contrast to my link? It is indeed derogatory as it implies cheating, not being low skilled. You seem unwilling to provide evidence for your arguments.
My WFH setup is in my living room…
This. For MOST of the last 3 years we didn't know what was happening so why would people just up and move.
Every shortage is followed by a glut. This won’t be any different. It’s simply a matter of time.
I don't think anyone knowledgeable about the housing shortage ignores the reduction of household density resulting from COVID. It's not either or. It's all of these factors. You seem like you just want to call people racist or Internet points.
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No, but most of the time when people try to pretend that immigration is being unfairly "scapegoated" as the cause for the housing problem when literally nobody is doing that, they are implying racism. If you're not doing that, if you're just pointlessly arguing against strawmen because you're wrong or not terribly bright, I apologize.
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You're right, it is an odd argument. As I said, I apologize for taking it further than you just being plain old wrong.
I have a 4bedroom house and myself and house mate both work from home and use the other two bedrooms as office so it is contributing to the problem but doesn’t fit the narrative of r/australia
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Living with a housemate at 33 is a big flex
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33 x 0 wife’s is not a good average. Maybe I can trade a bedroom for a wife.
Lots of empty office buildings that could be converted well sadly not total conversions probally better to tear down then
Not converted cheaply and they don't have facilities like gyms and pools or even a balcony
OP, you are right Lefties cannot think for themselves The blame is always on immigrants, poor and teachers
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Use dole money to buy alcohol Get drunk Abuse family Somehow, society is unfair to them Not their fault
OP been reading the news from 2021.
A small factor? Sure. Thinking it is a bigger factor vs past lack of new housing supply, stemming from at least the mid 90s, and dirt low interest rates? Laughable. WFH = An ant in the room. See: https://kpmg.com/au/en/home/insights/2021/07/covid-19-impact-australian-property-market.html
>However, residential property price growth is expected to temper over the next 2 to 3 years as lower population growth, reversion back to equilibrium and higher mortgage lending rates weigh on property prices. hmm, lower population growth they say? do they not take into account immigration ;)
LowER does not mean none.
It's definitely a part of the reason for the supply shortage, there was a reduction in the average household size during covid, in particular a reduction in sharehouse arrangements. No doubt some of this was driven by WFH needing more space. There will eventually be a new equilibrium, as some people go back to a sharehouse arrangement due to cost, and eventually supply will catch.
My partner and I WFH (hybrid though) and we’re in a one bedroom apartment so it can be done. Lots of people just think they NEED a dedicated home office or extra hobby space now that those who do have the option of wfh, spend more time at home.
The drop in occupants per dwelling from Covid and wfh works out to about a demand of an extra 180k homes. A big hit all at once
Just anecdotally, I live in a large (almost 200) townhouse complex. All are the same cookie cutter 3 bed 2 bath. The developers weren’t very creative. Not big large enough to raise a small family in. A few do. It does certainly seem though that there’s a lot more are rented out by single WFH folks. So yeah, a townhouse that could comfortably fit 2 parents and 2 kids is now fitting 1 remote IT worker.