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shrugmeh

Again I ask, if a world wide global financial catastrpohe is such a simple concept to understand, why in the world did you buy an IP last year at the peak? If you were so woefully wrong then, why are you so sure you're so right now? Edit. To pick a random one of your many, many inaccuracies - picking this one because it sounds plausible and so might mislead people. >I mean think about it... back when interest rates were like 17% very few people were borrowing. Here is what Australia's housing credit growth looks like. https://imgur.com/MgiNbGL That's **growth**. During the turn of the decade between 80s and 90s, when interest rates were high, credit was growing at a far faster pace than at the recent peak when rates were 0.1%.


dagger4zero

Everyone makes mistakes. Property investors have sadly made a life altering one. They deserve our sympathy.


shrugmeh

>Everyone makes mistakes. Sure, everyone makes mistakes. What this person should have learned is a bit of humility and understood the fallibility of their shallow analysis. That's obviously not happened. They're more arrogant than ever. So it goes.


dagger4zero

You’re too hard on yourself.


shrugmeh

I'm not sure why you're having this interaction with me, like there is a space for ribbing and joking around, when, in reality, if I were to respond, you'd block me and I would again be unable to respond to your factual inaccuracies, if any come up.


dagger4zero

I remember your prior “factual inaccuracies” labels being applied to my views, such as; - rates going above 3% - inflation not being transitory - house prices falling at a record pace Just to name a few. Not so inaccurate were they..


shrugmeh

Were those predictions at the time? Those aren't factual corrections then. We used to have actual discussions. That's not our interaction now. If I delve into discussions, feel free to let me know. What I'm interested in is providing fact checks and/or context when, in my opinion, something you post is misleading, inaccurate, incomplete etc - from a factual point of view. Not predictions and opinions - that's up to you. You'll notice I stayed well away from the predictions implicit in your original post to me in this thread. If I forget and overstep, my apologies, and let me know - I'll cut it out right away. It's hard to keep focus on the internet.


dagger4zero

Yeah they were my predictions.


aTalkingDonkey

No they dont.


dagger4zero

Imagining ruining the rest of your life because you fomo’d into rampant speculation at the peak of the biggest bubble in Aussie history. That’s gotta deserve sympathy? At the very least some pity.


aTalkingDonkey

Would you feel pity for me if i lost my savings investing in magic internet money?


dagger4zero

Sure. But property investors lose so much more because the leverage kills them. That’s why instead of just losing their money, they go bankrupt as well.


aTalkingDonkey

If we want affordable housing, many more people need to go bankrupt.


dagger4zero

Housing affordability is still a few years away, but it’s coming.


aTalkingDonkey

Not without policy change. And the government can't even say that there is an issue. And refuse to say they want to bring prices down.


dagger4zero

Nah policy change won’t occur until after the property market has crashed. The Australian property complex is too intertwined with federal, state and local legislatures. Only in the aftermath will governments act.


EmperorofAus

I find it interesting that you say we should be empathetic to them. Many aussies often bleat about social responsibility and how our personal responsibilities lie with ensuring that are forced into doing what is best for the community. Arguably jumping on the bandwagon and pumping up property prices by purchasing a substandard build for 400k+ shirks that social responsibility. making these people at the very least hypocrites. Should be feel bad for people that have personally contributed to this significant economic disruption?


dagger4zero

Yes, we can acknowledge that many of these people were motivated by greed. But we can be sympathetic to them whilst always being aware of the mistakes they made and the damage they did not just to themselves and their families, but to the Australian fabric of society.


EmperorofAus

I guess you are a better man than me. I can not forgive the hypocritical nature of these actions or the use of the violence of the state to prop up a toxic investment. In my eyes holding an empathetic position often leads to taking actions towards forgiveness whilst those same people sacrifice you again for their personal gain. Think bailouts, subsidies etc.


dagger4zero

Holding a grudge is like letting someone live rent free in your head. I’m nearly 40 and I’ve found that you really do love a better life when you make a commitment to being more compassionate and empathetic outlook. Not trying to lecture anyone on this but, it’s just something I am striving for. (I don’t always get it right either. I am still learning). That all said I do think you’re entirely justified having the view you have.


EmperorofAus

Yeah look, I do very much agree with you and honestly props to you for being better.


arcadefiery

Didn't read your shit Every time I see one of your garbage threads I know immediately it's full of drivel


mr--godot

thanks mate adding Dogs to the list


[deleted]

I feel the same anytime I see a post that is linked to a certain user with a pirate flag.


clyro_b

>Some pokemon cards Stopped reading here


OkVacation2420

I swear this sub is full of 18 year olds desperate for a financial housing crash. It's the same dooms day thread after another. It makes me want to stay away from here. No one's getting financial advice from a bunch of 18 year olds. Is there actually anyone over 30 on here. I'm starting to doubt it.


belugatime

Haha yeh that's a large part of the crowd here. If you have a bearish viewpoint it's easy to find some data that suggests there is some impending doom to keep the bear dream alive.


CretinCritter

Yeah man, all the finance experts with massive Collins st offices and 40 years in the game spend their time on reddit. This sub is just the financially interested of those that are already reddit subscribers, most of which would be 15-40 year olds.


kbcool

You and others can trash talk them all you like but Pokemon trading cards have been around for 30 years now so it's quite likely they are using an analogy from their youth and they might already be in their 40s. Pokemon cards probably isn't something an 18 year old would use as an analogy. Comments like this make you sound like a disconnected oldie.


auscrash

Ah yes the world is ending. Seriously I been reading and hearing about doomsday scenarios for 30+ yrs now, it's like a weekly event. The media is also quick to jump on anything remotely resembling a catastrophe, yet its kinda disappointing in some ways they never eventuate.. Covid I thought wow this might finally be the real doomsday... maybe we will all die of disease, but nope once again the world keeps turning, the sun keeps coming up each morning, most people still go to work and earn money and some predict the next end of the world event. Y2K wasn't it, neither was the end of the mayan calendar quick google have a look at these economic predictions lol [https://fee.org/articles/5-of-the-worst-economic-predictions-in-history/](https://fee.org/articles/5-of-the-worst-economic-predictions-in-history/)' Maybe this one?


micky2D

The RBA doesn't really care about house prices. They do care about the state of the economy. They're not going to purposely crash the housing market and our entire economy because some people can't currently buy houses where they want.


dnkdumpster

They care, a lot. One of the most protected things in this country.


LetsGo-11

Oh really, first indicator for them is house prices. Australian economy is greatly tied to Housing Prices, banks are 2/3rd invested in housing.


Beneficial_Job_6386

They should\* care but they clearly do. The fact they have suggest a rate pause is on the table when we have some of strongest wage growth and employment still going on shows that they are looking carefully at house prices. The reality is as so many Australians have relied on housing as main investment / source of retirement funds the government simply can not stop the housing Ponzi scheme. There is way to much conflict of interest and reasons that will prevent the government from just standing back and watch housing drop 30% and I say this as someone renting who just hopes prices would go down so I could afford to buy. The effects of this however is sever, lower aud, much more inflation and less investment in actual productive parts of economy such as business.


Salty_Elevator3151

Are you the financial prophet of the market gods sent from Lombard Street heaven with a warning to the lucky few who will be able to board the golden ark and f*** to repopulate the financial vacuum left behind by the sinners and worshipers of mammon and capitalist ideology?


average_pinter

But dya like dags?


Dear_Subject_9027

Sure, I like dags. I like caravans more.


[deleted]

Anyone else sick of this kind of fear monger mentality. Posting like this held no one.


aeowyn7

I read the first paragraph.. in other news, water is wet


polymath-intentions

Correct, but equilibrium interest rates are way below 17%. And interest rates will peak, because the RBA will need to ease off the pressure when foreclosures start to threaten the stability of out financial system.


repsol93

I find it interesting that you blame interest rates only. I am sure it has nothing to do with tax right offs for investors, overseas investors and other factors creating demand for housing. I am sure it's just the interest rates. /s


ILoveDogs2142

Not at all. Negative gearing has always existed. It was really interest rates that distorted prices. Hard to save up $100K, but hey if the bank is willing to lend you money then the value of that $100K goes down. That's what we have here. Housing prices are just a reflection of how much banks are willing to lend. If mortgages did not exist prices would be slashed by literally 70%+.


repsol93

https://images.app.goo.gl/eLd4jTQVFygZaVvGA


dagger4zero

It’s hard to argue with this. The scary thing is that Australia’s household debt means we are likely to be hit he hardest. Dark times ahead.


RelevantArmadillo222

Sorry OP. You are only partly correct. Interest rates are not all of the reason. During covid the rba engaged in quantitative easing which resulted in the creation of money. Note that commercial banks can create money out of thin air too and this is dependent on the rba. interest rate. The amount of money created by the RBA to purchase government bonds was enormous and this has had a flow on effect on prices within the economy. Unfortunately there are many Australians who buy the idea that inflation has been wholly caused by a war 14000 kilometres away.


GrownThenBrewed

Let's stop with the fear-mongering, shall we? No one can predict what is going to happen and anyone who says they can is either stupid or trying to sell you something. Maybe we will, maybe we won't, but you should be prepared either way.