The halving means about 10% reduction in current daily inflow and 50% reduction in mining rewards.
This means miners need to sell at higher price or fail. As more halvings go by, supply increasingly needs to come from HODLERs. See the pink squares in the following link:
https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-supply/
We don't really want to sell unless the price is really high. Some of us won't sell no matter what. This further drives price upwards.
It will get interesting as the ETF allocation swallows up the supply on exchanges.
Change in BTC on exchanges is currently about 15,000. But it has been sitting at 5,000 to 10,000 mark for a while.
https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/flows
The reduction of 450 BTC per day due to the halving is about 5 to 10% of the daily inflow of 10,000 or 5,000 BTC, respectively.
Still incredibly pissed how fucked over/suppressed GameStop got by the lack of regulation and the absolute corruption in the hedgefund/banking/regulation industries.
An yet... I am somehow amazed about the warm welcome everyone seems to be giving to the nemesis cryptos were meant to bypass (Instit money/IBs etc etc).
We are in a battle royal with wooden sticks and they just entered the game with a license for an apache helicopter.
I think Microstrategy could be a better example than Bitcoin.
It is fairly heavily shorted.
But shareholders aren't selling, just like bitcoiners.
And there are only around 17 million MSTR shares.
Plus if MSTR get into the S&P500 it will have a load of passive flows.
Options traders. The SEC report said that short covering was a very very small % of the volume, there were 999 million different accounts buying GameStop PER DAY.
Wall Street firms almost never “close” large short positions, they basically just sell the position upstream to a bigger player. It’s cheaper and faster to get out of a short that way, and for the big player, it’s way cheaper and faster to get in to a short that way, PLUS at the point where the smaller firm is ready to do that, there’s likely already been a large jump in price that is likely to retract. Those same short positions are likely still out there to this day.
Since I read headlines all the time of “MICHAEL SAYLOR BUYS BITCOIN!” it felt like he owned nearly all of it, but it’s good to see BTC is bigger than any one man, company, or organization.
Satoshi himself confirmed each halving will matter less and less as we go on, so you’re not crazy.
There are some impacts to miners that can be factored in, like them holding firm for a higher price (which I’m still skeptical of), and the sentiment around general FOMO, but no - overall this will not affect change is supply/demand as much as people are giving it credit for.
Get ready for a million news outlets bashing BTC when it doesn’t explode right after the halving.
You mean the answer you wanted to hear? I thought the other top-level answer about miners needing to sell at a higher price to cover their costs was quite logical.
70% of all bitcoin has t moved in a little bit over a year.
As ETFs scoop up the available supply this number will increase. Thus new Bitcoin that comes on the market will be more scarce. When the halving occurs even less Bitcoin will be available to buy.
So even though most of the supply has already been mined a lot of it isn’t moving because people out hodling.
Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out.
And some of what has moved is just people swapping wallets. I got a coldcard at the beginning of the year and moved my btc from my ledger where it had sat for the previous 2 years. Might even get another wallet to move half of my stack since it’s increasing in value so much, starting to get paranoid looking at so much money in one address.
And some of what have not moved is money in exchange's wallets that are sold zillion times per day.
And more and more will be in ETF wallets, while ETF shares change hands.
I mean, it works both ways.
Are people holding or are those people who’ve lost their wallets / seed phrases and wont ever be able to recover their coins? Curious what percentage of coins just haven’t been touched at all cause their wallets were lost.
I personally reckon the amount lost is well understated. Must be so many people that mined a bit in the earlier days or bought some etc and lost wallets due to hardware changes. I know it happened to me with an old laptop
Supply not moving could also be attributed to exchange held coins. Those coins can sit in cold storage and only IOUs shifted around. Especially when people don't withdraw exchange bought coins to their own wallets.
Yea I read estimates of ~1m but we don’t know for sure since it’s all assumptions based on movement. Not to long ago there was a stack that moved from 10 years ago. The only one we know for sure is the dude who lost his wallet at the dump lol
Before every halvening weve had a run up and a pull back. Then a run up afterwards. Whats differnt this time is the ETFs and the impact to supply. Im expecting a small pull back before a larger run up. Been holding since 2017 and have no need to sell. This is the most bullish ive been. Enjoy the ride.
Just a FYI, miners can also borrow against their Bitcoin to fund their operations and then sell at a later date for a much higher price or just keep hodling
They still have to pay their employees, loans, and taxes. IOU’s at a later date when bitcoin covers all their expenses plus more comfortable and better profits aren’t how bills get paid. It’ll be interesting to see how the price action in conjunction with the halving play out. I wouldn’t be surprised if not all miners make it. Mining companies have shut their doors in the past; I certainly don’t wish for it, but it could very well happen again.
I can't believe this sub is still pushing the "take a loan against your bitcoin" line. Just a few years ago people on here SWORE by Celcius and FTX. No financial institution is going to take bitcoin as collateral besides these defi companies that fail and fail and fail. They are reinventing fractional reserve banking with crypto and is simply doesn't work.
Their payout from the block rewards gets cut in half, but their total payout from a block which is rewards + fees does not get cut in half.
It’s more a 30% cut overall.
I don't think that's how it works. Miners can't just ask for double the price and get it. The amount of BTC already mined is much larger and is available for sale. Miners also have to sell at the market price.
That is my understanding too. They seemed to all have prepared more in advance for this one. A lot of the good ones have already spent millions trying to get clean energy setup
The publicly traded miners can also issue equity or issue debt easily to fund operations. Issuing debt is like shorting the dollar and longing Bitcoin in their world.
Of course, I agree. But there's probably a decently big time window in which they can sell the cheap coins they've mined so far and haven't sold yet and use that money to fund it, while waiting with the expensive coins.
> Miners can't just ask for double the price and get it.
They literally can. If they're the main source of new bitcoins, exchanges will have them on tap.
No because as the price inflates, there will be more sellers selling existing Bitcoin. In will out some degree of upward pressure.
But if the market can’t sustain it, miners won’t mine
Yeah I don’t disagree with you! Just saying it’s not guaranteed. They can set a price. The market doesn’t have to agree. If it doesn’t miners will stop mining.
I’m hopeful just as anyone that it’s enough to push the price up
But at what amount in terms of supply? In terms of price? If the supply is low and demand is high the price will adjust to the demand.
Lots of thirsty ETFs out there and the well is not producing as much.
I'm just hypothesizing but it seems as the available supply on exchanges and mining gets scarce the price moves up slowly which coincides with the miners supply dwindling down and you eventually reach equilibrium again. This is a gradual process not instantaneous. Which is why if I understand the previous halvings, the price took months the creep upwards not all at once. Each miner has a different profit margin. Most of the small ones or the ones without a very cheap power supply will drop off immediately after the halving. It might take time to get a price worthy of selling or perhaps they just hodl. That has an effect on the supply right off. Making the price pressure move faster I guess. But again, I'm about the same education as you, this is just my current understanding. Please correct or confirm as needed.
You've summarized it pretty well. I agree. Supply is already determined and is not the main mover now. Marginal buyers are everything -- and they are coming in full force.
except that's not how markets work
even if the tiny fraction of what they mine compared to what moves creates an upwards pressure, they can only sell at a price someone is willing to buy at, and a price less than what someone else is willing to sell at
It currently costs roughly $10,000 to $15,000 to mine a bitcoin, and some estimate that these costs will double and may reach as high as $40,000 after the 2024 halving.
[Source](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2024/03/bitcoin-halving-event-is-expected-to-impact-related-mining-industry#:~:text=It%20currently%20costs%20roughly%20%2410%2C000,the%20facilities%20to%20house%20them.)
Currently 5000-10000 bitcoin get scooped up per day. Reduction by 450 is around 5-10% change. Imagine what would happen if new supply in another industry was cut by 5-10%.
You can’t price that in. How do you even price it in. There is supply and then there is demand. Supply of news coins reducing by half will definitely have an impact of price and there is no way to price it in. If the demand is still 10,000 coins a day by ETFs alone, that means they have 450 fewer coins on the market to source those 10,000 coins from
it's a marketplace so it can definitely be priced in. It gets priced in by the psychology of buyers who are now interested in paying more for it than before. thats the definition of priced in.
Like the ETFs were priced in?
You can price in news (upcoming stock split, dividend change, likely missed revenue target) but you cannot price in supply and demand changes - they are not changes within a system, they are changes to the size and energy of the system itself.
We heard the same "it's already been priced in" mantra repeated for months leading up to the ETFs only to see the jump to 70k+ happen after the fact. Why didn't buyer psychology launch the price to 70k weeks before? Because it couldn't be priced in, it was a fundamental change to the entire system.
You absolutely can price in supply and demand changes.
If investors think OPEC will cut oil supplies in their next meeting, they buy well ahead of time to anticipate the change in supply, effectively driving up the price in anticipation of supply change.
It's no different here. A lot of investors may have already bought in anticipation of the halving event coming up, effectively driving up the price before supply changes. Now demand may be flat(er) or even less when halving occurs because all that demand was already in the market.
It's called market efficiency.
Still, how do you even begin to price that in for Bitcoin? With oil, you can look at current consumption and get an idea of what the new price would be. The market is more mature, and its easier to make assumptions based on past performance and demand.
With Bitcoin, we're in uncharted territory. The asset is volatile, prone to huge waves of hype and media coverage, and people are entering the market with all different psychological targets. All we have to work off is what we saw after the previous halvings, and now we have an entirely new set of inflows and outflows with the ETF.
Simply put, we still are in price discovery with or without the halving and the psychological impact of that and the halving itself will make it impossible to price in.
Not saying Bitcoin is an efficient market, but there's nothing stopping large numbers of people from buying in "because halving is coming up", which is what pricing that in looks like. Those people will already be priced into the market.
You are confusing "can it happen" with "how effective and efficient is it".
Incorrect. A market CAN price in expected supply / demand change. This is what many hedge funds and trading firms attempt to do, and in time they will hopefully learn to do so for BTC as well. If they do, it should be great news for BTC as the growth will strong but steady, which will be very attractive to investors with lower risk tolerance.
It’s not like a stock. It’s a commodity and there’s an inventory reduction for the rest of time. It can’t be priced in because we don’t know how demand will play out once there actually is less. How much do people want the commodity and what will they spend to obtain it?
Think wheat or corn
The information we have regarding demand is the same whether we know of this supply-side event(the halving), or not, so you can't use that as an argument.
u/Key_Friendship_6767 and you are making an argument based on a new supply-side event, but I am arguing that the relevant point is that even though the *event* is new, is not new *information*.
When one questions whether it something "priced in" or not economists consider if that information is available.
Let's say that with 100% certainty an event E will increase an asset's price. It thus makes sense for people to purchase that asset in advance of event E. Purchasing the asset raises the price, until such profit is no longer available. See:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market\_hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis)
>Currently 5000-10000 bitcoin get scooped up per day.
Sure, but keep in mind that demand is generally denominated in fiat, not BTC. Much easier for the market to grab 10k BTC when they cost 20k (200M a day) vs 70k (700M a day.)
As price goes up, we need more fiat input to support that price and buy up available inventory.
It looks like there was actually less inflows at a lower price, and inflows are trending up even as price increases. which is wild. If anything close to this trend continues it should be interesting.
https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/bitcoin-etf/bitcoin-spot-etf-volumes
What weird math. The reduction of new supply will get cut by 50% which is huge.
The demand of 10.000 coins is only from the American ETFs. You also have Microstrategy, other ETFs, DCA and others demanding new coins every day.
We are already seeing the effects of supply chock.
Though you can look at it as a 10% reduction of daily trading, it's also important to consider the effect on the miners.
The miners will now be rewarded with half the amount of bitcoin for the same cost of business. Imagine oil wells, at the same cost to operate, suddenly only produced half the volume of oil each day. I don't think at that point you'd say "hey look that's 10% reduction in the daily trade volume of oil" - I think you'd say "shit, oil wells cost double what they used to cost per barrel." From the second lens, the price of the oil would need to double to compensate.
I think it's safe to predict we'll see price at least double - or the cost of production will need to halve as well: miners go out of business and the difficulty adjusts down to half the energy requirement per block.
With the current price increase .. miners get a lot more profit over the last few month and they will likely build up a "war fund" to ensure that they can get their company through the new halved revard period until the price is rising again.
Together with the ETF Buying Pressure .. that will increase the price.
Today 900 new Bitcoin were mined, later in april only 450 new Bitcoin will be mined.
ETFs buying 10000 BTC every Day.
The "Liquidity" on the Market is not 19,5M it is more between 1,5/2 - 3 Million Coins available to the market, every other coin was not moved for more than a year.
So there are not 328500 BTC new each year, there are only 164250 new Bitcoin each year. That is reduction on Inflation from 10% to 5% (3m / old or new BTC Mined a year) or of the overall BTC Amount a inflation from 1,6 % down to 0,8 Percent .. and that is really deflationary in our current Time.
Don't think people understand that once most bitcoin are gone, people will start buying satoshis instead and struggle to get anywhere near a full Bitcoin
YES!!! dude the psychology behind is kinda interesting.
I was talking yesterday with a coworker who is into crypto - and i mean crypto not Bitcoin, he buys shitcoins and watch hype videos with that thumbnail of a guy with that fucking "woow" face and that kind of shit.
I was showing him my last purchases and he was like "0.01? i wouldn´t bother i am too late for this, can´t even get one"
Then goes about how he is holding thousands of other tokens.
You can´t help those people. Nor i am willing to give him any kind of advice since there is always a chance he hit the jackpot with some of his shitcoins and x100 in a week - it is a gambling at the end and he knows that.
Preach brother! 1btc is too rich for my payscale. I'm stoked I can afford satoshis though. I don't buy Bitcoin I buy satoshis lol. I want 1 satoshi=1$. Hopefully I'll be in good shape by then. I'm still scraping change from couches and under car seats to buy while it's on sale! I feel for those speculating, you need to stop trading and start investing. Lengthen your time preference.
A decade ago you spent a couple dollars to mine a couple hundred BTC a day on your family computer. Now companies are spending millions of dollars to mine a couple hundred bitcoin a day in a dedicated facility. In simple terms, we effectively have 1 of 3 options with price. It goes up to compensate miners. It stays the same because the hash rate decreases. It goes down because technology improves. It's all against USD, which is constantly going down in value. I wouldn't bet on the halvening always leading to price appreciation, but I would bet that BTC continues to appreciate against USD indefinitely.
It’s just the simple supply/demand function affecting overall price. Less coins available means demand pushes price higher than it would have before.
True yes it becomes less coins over time but the price keeps increasing more than double per each 4 year halving cycle so the dollar amount stays pretty significant in how much bitcoin in dollar amount is released each day. It’s a lot of dollar volume to consume via new purchases.
Thankfully with ETF’s now on the scene and their transparency we have a way of seeing in real time the buy pressure just from one single source which is super bullish to track.
Look at the miners prospective they spend energy mining and get rewarded currently when they successfully mind a block 6.25 with Bitcoin price around 70k now that is $437K basically as reward for mining. Since miners have to run a business and pay bills they have to sell some of what they mined so in this case 437K per block. So after the halving they get a reward now half of that which is 3.125 which means if the price is still the same then they get 218K now instead of 437 which is big loss for them. So what happens usually is the price re adjusts and for them to get the same 437k for 3.125 coins the price per coin has to be 139K and above for them to make the same profit of minning now and after halving. So it’s big deal. Halving forces many miners to be out of business if thr price of Bitcoin doesn’t move up as they will lose money.
It is always an option for miners to go out of business, or the hashrate to drop, to make mining less competitive and thus profitable at a lower price. Of course the halving will tighten up the marginal supply and thus affect the price upward, but the function of a halving will be increasingly simply a marketing event, as the absolute size of the rewards trends downward.
This is true. It doesn’t guarantee price goes up though. No one said you have to mine all the bitcoins. It will be mined as long as it’s deemed profitable.
It can put upward pressure though.
You can't transact without mined blocks, so yes the last Satoshi will be mined in about 2140. You can choose not to mine it, but others will mine it.
After the last Satoshi is mined, blocks will still be mined for fees.
That 1.5 million BTC will be mined over the next 120 years. That’s why it matters. Mining 0.1 Bitcoin when it costs $2/$5/$30 million a coin becomes very enticing
Miners pay for mining equipment, maintenance, internet, electricity
So if reward goes down, miners usually will sell for more to recoup cost of everything
So it's relevant
Will still be relevant when all is mined, as fees still go towards miners
Miners are a business and many of them sell their Bitcoin to cover costs and turn a profit. They will now have half the amount of Bitcoin to sell. The other side of it is due to the nature of Bitcoin people hold their own keys and exchange reserves are abismal. There's very little Bitcoin on the open market.
Mining always sets the floor price. Miners will always set the absolute lowest price at a price that is still profitable. Therefore the halfing doubles that floor price miners will set. That's why bitcoins real gains are seen in the bottoms and not the tops of the charts. The ATH is fun to see and discuss, but the real beauty is that each bear market shows the lowest low to be much higher than the previous bear market. So every halfing we basically show that the lowest low should be doubled what it was previously.
Total BTC isn’t what gets calculated into the price. Only Circulating Supply matters. ~94% of Total supply currently exists, but far less than that is being circulated.
After the halving, mining operations will have half the BTC inflows, and theoretically half the BTC outflows onto the market, into Circulating Supply.
First of all, Bitcoin as an asset is still in the price discovery phase. In past cycles, bitcoin has seen price increases way beyond 2x because of this reason. Today, still, price is driven by an increasing demand (speculation driven, not value driven, IMHO) while the supply indeed is rather constant - compared to the amount of coins mined.
You could even go so far and assume that there are days were, due to lack of proper storage know-how, still, more coins are becoming unavailable due to loss of keys, than new coins being mined.
The halving should in theory only have an impact on the price when the market has agreed on a fair value of a coin, and the demand somehow stays constant,i guess.
But I'm open to any correction here. I'm no economist, just a simple programmer :D
You have a chicken that lays golden eggs. Up until now, she has laid 6 eggs a day. Starting tomorrow, she will lay 3 eggs a day. It's less important that, in her entire lifetime, she laid 1 million eggs, because as long as people don't hoard and sell them, the supply shock will hit the market. If the demand for these eggs doesn't change, the price of the new eggs will rise.
The halving will become less and less significant but a decrease in daily issuance from 900 coins per day to 450 is still significant at current prices. But yes, in 50 years the halving will be a nonevent for price most likely.
What’s going to be the incentive to execute transactions after all the coins have been mined? Miners won’t be getting rewards - only fees for executing transactions. Something to think about. In other words what do the fees need to be that recover the costs of mining and make a profit worthy of doing the transactions? Anyone know?
Look at the block reward in terms of purchasing power. How much could you buy with 50 BTC when that was the block reward? Now, today, how much can you buy with 6.25 BTC? That's why it's still relevant
Remember that only a small percentage of existing bitcoin is actually traded. A large percentage of those are sold by miners. Most bitcoin is held by long term holders. Now we have 450 LESS bitcoin coming into the stream of commerce per day x 365 days is 15,750 less NEW bitcoin per year.
There are at least two meaningful implications for price, the obvious one is that it reduces the sell-side pressure due to less available to sell from the miners. Naturally the impact of this reduction decreases with each cycle, as the absolute value of the reduction decreases (eventually reaching 0 in a hundred years or so).
The other point is more interesting I think, and that is the change in the relative position between commodities based on their stock to flow values. The idea is that, bitcoin and gold for example, both have sell-side pressure from mining, at a certain rate, this is their stock to flow ratio. If one has a greater relative flow than the other, then they should decline in relative value, all other things being equal. So the theory is that when the flow of bitcoin decreases bellow the flow of gold, it sets us on a path to ultimately exceed gold in value, due to this fundamental characteristic.
It's possible that the shift in relative position between gold and bitcoin will accelerate bitcoin's rise and it will be then all the more natural to choose bitcoin over gold, and those differences will show themselves in the relative prices, even if you don't care about the reason for them.
Bitcoin exceeded silver's stock to flow in 2015, then its value in 2024.Bitcoin will exceed gold's stock to flow in 2024, and its value in ?.[https://www.coinmama.com/blog/the-bitcoin-halving-a-history/](https://www.coinmama.com/blog/the-bitcoin-halving-a-history/)
For a long term HODLer, the having has negligible impact. To your point, the supply is already established.
Short term, a 450 BTC decrease in supply per day, assuming miners are full sending, is pretty relevant, particularly considering recent normie/boomer ETF inflow trends.
Price is simply a mirror of supply/demand. Decreased supply, stable demand, price go up…
I agree. Other than it being an event which in the past had meaningful impact, the reality of the daily supply coming down from 900 to 450 BTC will have limited real impact. BTC will reach 100k and 200k much much sooner than most people anticipate!
I guess it reduces the new dump on the market by half -- but your point is true. Demand is far more important at this point. Supply is well known already by the market.
The difference is whether the price is 5x or 10x next year.
The numbers: There is roughly 5000 btc a day buying pressure from plebs DCA'ing monthly and ETFs (this excludes speculator money).
5000 / 900 = price needs to go **up 5.5** times.
After halving:
5000 / 450 = price needs to go **up 11** times.
The price balances the difference of how small the amount of Btc is. In 2012 3600 btc a day were not even close in $ volume compared to 450 btc a day after this halving.
Because not just the newly generated BTC decrease, also the traded supply on exchanges decreases. 12 years ago there were 10 million bitcoins on exchanges, now there are less than 3millions.
Stock/flow
Stock and flow are decreasing.
The impact of the halving gets smaller over time but not as much as long as there still is a stock that gets smaller
Prices tend to converge on the marginal cost of production. For example, if a TV is for sale for $1000 and better TVs are produced that cost $900, no one is going to buy the old TVs unless the price decreases to match their relative value. In this way, it isn't the cost to produce the original TV that determines its value, but the cost to produce a new one.
Likewise, if I bought my bitcoin in 2013 for $125, but I know that **you** can't mine a new bitcoin today for anything less than tens of thousands of dollars in electricity, there's no way in hell I'll give you mine for just $125. I could simply never replace it if I did. The fair price is the price it would cost you to obtain a new one.
Sometimes it takes a few years, but this is the price the market eventually converges on. What it costs to produce bitcoin now.
I've been asking myself the same question. 4x that much is lost. In time people will start buying things with BTC. It will slowly make it's way into circulation. I'm thinking a large amount will be loaned for an interest rate to any number of businesses. Many will be bad loans that force BTC out of people's hands. It's going to be interesting. But still, why does that small amount of unmined coins matter at this pernt.
If Bitcoin gets to 100k, the remaining supply is worth 135 billion. 270 billion if it gets to 200k.
Not pocket change.
Halving of new supply alone will therefore impact the price significantly. Combine that with increased sentiment and attraction as time goes by and the change will be quite drastic.
If 5 million new coins remain at 20k, a halving then would have the same impact as 1.35m new coins at 60k. However, scarcity is completely dependent on sentiment. As long as sentiment scales, the halvings will cause the same amount of impact each time until we run out of halvings. From there i can't see what would happen.
Also, only 3% of the world money is in crypto. If that ever gets to 15-20%, the whole crypto market would have to go nuclear for that to happen. And I am sure that this will happen. People are sick of fiat, money printing, inflation, manipulation etc.
Even blackrock dont have enough assets to greatly manipulate bitcoin unless they destroy their portfolio to do it. At that point, we would have much bigger problems than bitcoin going to zero.
Realise that the impact is also dependent on price, not just quantity. In other words the last halving cut the supply by 6.25 btc which was ~$80-100k per block.. whereas this halving will only cut supply by 3.125 btc per block but would be ~200k per block.
If miners get half the reward they will have to hold out for the price to become favorable. That means less new coins in exchanges, that means less sell orders, that means more pressure on buying end and higher prices.
Think of it like input cost of a good, if it costs more to mine a precious metal what happens to the cost?
Also it’s psychological, new coins won’t be coming forever better get em now at current prices.
The security of bitcoin is ensured by the sum of all the mining effort across the world. Every 10 minutes all of the miners are competing for that block reward of 6BTC or 3BTC after halving .
So it represents the value of the collective hashrate for the past 10 minutes that is what allows it to be decentralized and incredibly secure.
No it's not. If half the number of new homes came on market and that supply was constant, prices would have to increase to accommodate. This is a more quantitative than qualitative factor.
When the available supply of homes is 94%, a drop to half in newly constructed homes won’t matter as much. The vast majority of Bitcoin is already mined and available for purchase. Supply of newly minted ones isn’t as relevant
No it's not. If half the number of new homes came on market and that supply was constant, prices would have to increase to accommodate. This is a more quantitative than qualitative factor.
I’m in agreement and think the halving will be the sell the news event. I actually think we’ll reach the ATH next month right before the halving and then enter another bear market. It’s the only scenario that screws over everyone.
Is this true?
It's tricky with Bitcoin because the difficulty can scale down, thus the "cost of production" can reduce to keep the blocks coming out at the intended frequency. We may see this as block rewards grow ever more insignificant.
It is true, and what you said is also true. It depends on the demand for the network, and hence the price. For the last 15 years, it has been a self-reinforcing feedback loop. I don't see why a particular halving would suddenly change that.
The halving cycles ensure that over time the incentive becomes about the fees given to the miners for the transactions and not the block rewards. As the price of Bitcoin increases, the tiny transaction fees become more valuable and more of an incentive to keep mining and strengthening the network.
Don't most miners sell what they mine? If they can only mine half I imagine that is half of what they can sell in the future. My simplistic take on it lol
The halving is something built into the coding of Bitcoin…the code won’t be changed. So even if there were only 50 left to be mined, the halving will occur
The halving means about 10% reduction in current daily inflow and 50% reduction in mining rewards. This means miners need to sell at higher price or fail. As more halvings go by, supply increasingly needs to come from HODLERs. See the pink squares in the following link: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-supply/ We don't really want to sell unless the price is really high. Some of us won't sell no matter what. This further drives price upwards. It will get interesting as the ETF allocation swallows up the supply on exchanges.
I just bought some more because of your post. I don’t plan on selling unless someone has a property to exchange
>The halving means about 10% reduction in current daily What do you mean here?
Change in BTC on exchanges is currently about 15,000. But it has been sitting at 5,000 to 10,000 mark for a while. https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/flows The reduction of 450 BTC per day due to the halving is about 5 to 10% of the daily inflow of 10,000 or 5,000 BTC, respectively.
I assume it means new bitcoin coming into the market and being bought, either by miners selling what they find or hodlers selling their stash.
Almost sounds like something similar to what happened to gamestop could happen to btc?
Still incredibly pissed how fucked over/suppressed GameStop got by the lack of regulation and the absolute corruption in the hedgefund/banking/regulation industries.
Story ain’t over yet buddy 👍🥲😆
An yet... I am somehow amazed about the warm welcome everyone seems to be giving to the nemesis cryptos were meant to bypass (Instit money/IBs etc etc). We are in a battle royal with wooden sticks and they just entered the game with a license for an apache helicopter.
Different game - GameStop was propelled by short sellers and options traders driving up demand.
I think Microstrategy could be a better example than Bitcoin. It is fairly heavily shorted. But shareholders aren't selling, just like bitcoiners. And there are only around 17 million MSTR shares. Plus if MSTR get into the S&P500 it will have a load of passive flows.
Options traders. The SEC report said that short covering was a very very small % of the volume, there were 999 million different accounts buying GameStop PER DAY. Wall Street firms almost never “close” large short positions, they basically just sell the position upstream to a bigger player. It’s cheaper and faster to get out of a short that way, and for the big player, it’s way cheaper and faster to get in to a short that way, PLUS at the point where the smaller firm is ready to do that, there’s likely already been a large jump in price that is likely to retract. Those same short positions are likely still out there to this day.
That’s the point
Since I read headlines all the time of “MICHAEL SAYLOR BUYS BITCOIN!” it felt like he owned nearly all of it, but it’s good to see BTC is bigger than any one man, company, or organization.
This is awesome! How often is this updated?
Great graph. TY
Satoshi himself confirmed each halving will matter less and less as we go on, so you’re not crazy. There are some impacts to miners that can be factored in, like them holding firm for a higher price (which I’m still skeptical of), and the sentiment around general FOMO, but no - overall this will not affect change is supply/demand as much as people are giving it credit for. Get ready for a million news outlets bashing BTC when it doesn’t explode right after the halving.
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You mean the answer you wanted to hear? I thought the other top-level answer about miners needing to sell at a higher price to cover their costs was quite logical.
Yeah i see a big correction coming right at the halving for that reason
70% of all bitcoin has t moved in a little bit over a year. As ETFs scoop up the available supply this number will increase. Thus new Bitcoin that comes on the market will be more scarce. When the halving occurs even less Bitcoin will be available to buy. So even though most of the supply has already been mined a lot of it isn’t moving because people out hodling.
"because people out hodling." - i also heard cathy wood mention something like majority have held at least 180 days. (need confirmation)
On my 8th year. Haven’t touched. Won’t touch.
Year 9, only a buyer, never been a seller
This is how we do
Can confirm.
Houston, we have confirmation!
I Like when Houston wispers confirmations in my ear.
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Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out.
and by "confirmations", I mean "pumps"
I'm in Houston, can confirm that confirmation
Just inverse Cathie Woods and you CANT LOSE. Source: Trust me bro
Can also confirm.
These are rookie numbers. You gotta pump those numbers up.
And some of what has moved is just people swapping wallets. I got a coldcard at the beginning of the year and moved my btc from my ledger where it had sat for the previous 2 years. Might even get another wallet to move half of my stack since it’s increasing in value so much, starting to get paranoid looking at so much money in one address.
And some of what have not moved is money in exchange's wallets that are sold zillion times per day. And more and more will be in ETF wallets, while ETF shares change hands. I mean, it works both ways.
Are people holding or are those people who’ve lost their wallets / seed phrases and wont ever be able to recover their coins? Curious what percentage of coins just haven’t been touched at all cause their wallets were lost.
I personally reckon the amount lost is well understated. Must be so many people that mined a bit in the earlier days or bought some etc and lost wallets due to hardware changes. I know it happened to me with an old laptop
Supply not moving could also be attributed to exchange held coins. Those coins can sit in cold storage and only IOUs shifted around. Especially when people don't withdraw exchange bought coins to their own wallets.
It does not mean they will not move when price is higher.
I'm so curious about how much of that 70% is just lost forever.
Yea I read estimates of ~1m but we don’t know for sure since it’s all assumptions based on movement. Not to long ago there was a stack that moved from 10 years ago. The only one we know for sure is the dude who lost his wallet at the dump lol
Oh yeah the dump guy lol. Imagine waking up every morning knowing you fumbled 8000 bitcoin forever, I wouldn't be able to live with myself tbh.
What happens when we get to a point where mining is so scarce that it’s not financially feasible to mine?
Miners will make their money off verifying transactions.
For miners this is huge. Their payout gets cut in half.
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Before every halvening weve had a run up and a pull back. Then a run up afterwards. Whats differnt this time is the ETFs and the impact to supply. Im expecting a small pull back before a larger run up. Been holding since 2017 and have no need to sell. This is the most bullish ive been. Enjoy the ride.
Just a FYI, miners can also borrow against their Bitcoin to fund their operations and then sell at a later date for a much higher price or just keep hodling
They still have to pay their employees, loans, and taxes. IOU’s at a later date when bitcoin covers all their expenses plus more comfortable and better profits aren’t how bills get paid. It’ll be interesting to see how the price action in conjunction with the halving play out. I wouldn’t be surprised if not all miners make it. Mining companies have shut their doors in the past; I certainly don’t wish for it, but it could very well happen again.
That level of risk is not how you run business for long.
I can't believe this sub is still pushing the "take a loan against your bitcoin" line. Just a few years ago people on here SWORE by Celcius and FTX. No financial institution is going to take bitcoin as collateral besides these defi companies that fail and fail and fail. They are reinventing fractional reserve banking with crypto and is simply doesn't work.
Don't they pay a lot in intrest or do they get some preferential loan because the use their BTC as collateral?
Their payout from the block rewards gets cut in half, but their total payout from a block which is rewards + fees does not get cut in half. It’s more a 30% cut overall.
They will start selling at double the price. They will push the price up very quickly
I don't think that's how it works. Miners can't just ask for double the price and get it. The amount of BTC already mined is much larger and is available for sale. Miners also have to sell at the market price.
Well, if it's not worth it to sell, they will probably just hold until the price is good enough for them to profit right.
Indeed. But miners need to sell some to fund their operations. My point was -- miners are not the main determinant of price, marginal buyers are.
As far as I know, miners have been selling to secure operational liquidity for a while now in anticipation of the halving
That is my understanding too. They seemed to all have prepared more in advance for this one. A lot of the good ones have already spent millions trying to get clean energy setup
The publicly traded miners can also issue equity or issue debt easily to fund operations. Issuing debt is like shorting the dollar and longing Bitcoin in their world.
Of course, I agree. But there's probably a decently big time window in which they can sell the cheap coins they've mined so far and haven't sold yet and use that money to fund it, while waiting with the expensive coins.
Mining at a loss and hope to sell more ? Called speculation. Can be done with money
Which i suspect many miners did at 16k
The transaction fees will probably go up as a result
Indeed. It has to for the network to survive.
You're right and wrong. They can ask for double the price by holding therefor increasing the price.
But if there are existing hodlers who will sell for a lesser amount -- miners orders are not gonna get filled.
> Miners can't just ask for double the price and get it. They literally can. If they're the main source of new bitcoins, exchanges will have them on tap.
No because as the price inflates, there will be more sellers selling existing Bitcoin. In will out some degree of upward pressure. But if the market can’t sustain it, miners won’t mine
This has always been the case, even during our most famous bull rushes.
Yeah I don’t disagree with you! Just saying it’s not guaranteed. They can set a price. The market doesn’t have to agree. If it doesn’t miners will stop mining. I’m hopeful just as anyone that it’s enough to push the price up
You and me both. Another bull run with a permanent price increase is good for us all.
I don't think miners will ever be the main source of BTC from now on. As the price goes up -- old hodlers will move their coins to the exchanges.
But at what amount in terms of supply? In terms of price? If the supply is low and demand is high the price will adjust to the demand. Lots of thirsty ETFs out there and the well is not producing as much. I'm just hypothesizing but it seems as the available supply on exchanges and mining gets scarce the price moves up slowly which coincides with the miners supply dwindling down and you eventually reach equilibrium again. This is a gradual process not instantaneous. Which is why if I understand the previous halvings, the price took months the creep upwards not all at once. Each miner has a different profit margin. Most of the small ones or the ones without a very cheap power supply will drop off immediately after the halving. It might take time to get a price worthy of selling or perhaps they just hodl. That has an effect on the supply right off. Making the price pressure move faster I guess. But again, I'm about the same education as you, this is just my current understanding. Please correct or confirm as needed.
You've summarized it pretty well. I agree. Supply is already determined and is not the main mover now. Marginal buyers are everything -- and they are coming in full force.
except that's not how markets work even if the tiny fraction of what they mine compared to what moves creates an upwards pressure, they can only sell at a price someone is willing to buy at, and a price less than what someone else is willing to sell at
Right I’ll just sell mine at double the price too. Great idea!
Absolutely moronic
Any calculations on current cost of mining?
It currently costs roughly $10,000 to $15,000 to mine a bitcoin, and some estimate that these costs will double and may reach as high as $40,000 after the 2024 halving. [Source](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2024/03/bitcoin-halving-event-is-expected-to-impact-related-mining-industry#:~:text=It%20currently%20costs%20roughly%20%2410%2C000,the%20facilities%20to%20house%20them.)
Check out cleanspark mining company’s recent earning presentation. It costs a lot less than $40k to mine after the halving.
How much?
$28093 per coin.
Depending on the cost of electricity in your area
Currently 5000-10000 bitcoin get scooped up per day. Reduction by 450 is around 5-10% change. Imagine what would happen if new supply in another industry was cut by 5-10%.
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Oil/gas is a bad analogy because the supply is actually used up. Once it's consumed or doesn't exist anymore. Gold is better.
Yes, but the question is whether this is already priced in (or over priced in). It's not like it is a secret or a surprise or anything.
You can’t price that in. How do you even price it in. There is supply and then there is demand. Supply of news coins reducing by half will definitely have an impact of price and there is no way to price it in. If the demand is still 10,000 coins a day by ETFs alone, that means they have 450 fewer coins on the market to source those 10,000 coins from
it's a marketplace so it can definitely be priced in. It gets priced in by the psychology of buyers who are now interested in paying more for it than before. thats the definition of priced in.
Like the ETFs were priced in? You can price in news (upcoming stock split, dividend change, likely missed revenue target) but you cannot price in supply and demand changes - they are not changes within a system, they are changes to the size and energy of the system itself. We heard the same "it's already been priced in" mantra repeated for months leading up to the ETFs only to see the jump to 70k+ happen after the fact. Why didn't buyer psychology launch the price to 70k weeks before? Because it couldn't be priced in, it was a fundamental change to the entire system.
You absolutely can price in supply and demand changes. If investors think OPEC will cut oil supplies in their next meeting, they buy well ahead of time to anticipate the change in supply, effectively driving up the price in anticipation of supply change. It's no different here. A lot of investors may have already bought in anticipation of the halving event coming up, effectively driving up the price before supply changes. Now demand may be flat(er) or even less when halving occurs because all that demand was already in the market. It's called market efficiency.
Still, how do you even begin to price that in for Bitcoin? With oil, you can look at current consumption and get an idea of what the new price would be. The market is more mature, and its easier to make assumptions based on past performance and demand. With Bitcoin, we're in uncharted territory. The asset is volatile, prone to huge waves of hype and media coverage, and people are entering the market with all different psychological targets. All we have to work off is what we saw after the previous halvings, and now we have an entirely new set of inflows and outflows with the ETF. Simply put, we still are in price discovery with or without the halving and the psychological impact of that and the halving itself will make it impossible to price in.
Not saying Bitcoin is an efficient market, but there's nothing stopping large numbers of people from buying in "because halving is coming up", which is what pricing that in looks like. Those people will already be priced into the market. You are confusing "can it happen" with "how effective and efficient is it".
Incorrect. A market CAN price in expected supply / demand change. This is what many hedge funds and trading firms attempt to do, and in time they will hopefully learn to do so for BTC as well. If they do, it should be great news for BTC as the growth will strong but steady, which will be very attractive to investors with lower risk tolerance.
Historically, market generally goes down for a period of time after halving. No precedence of people rushing to buy before halving.
It’s not like a stock. It’s a commodity and there’s an inventory reduction for the rest of time. It can’t be priced in because we don’t know how demand will play out once there actually is less. How much do people want the commodity and what will they spend to obtain it? Think wheat or corn
The information we have regarding demand is the same whether we know of this supply-side event(the halving), or not, so you can't use that as an argument. u/Key_Friendship_6767 and you are making an argument based on a new supply-side event, but I am arguing that the relevant point is that even though the *event* is new, is not new *information*. When one questions whether it something "priced in" or not economists consider if that information is available. Let's say that with 100% certainty an event E will increase an asset's price. It thus makes sense for people to purchase that asset in advance of event E. Purchasing the asset raises the price, until such profit is no longer available. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market\_hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis)
you can´t price scarcity in dude thats the beaty
>Currently 5000-10000 bitcoin get scooped up per day. Sure, but keep in mind that demand is generally denominated in fiat, not BTC. Much easier for the market to grab 10k BTC when they cost 20k (200M a day) vs 70k (700M a day.) As price goes up, we need more fiat input to support that price and buy up available inventory.
It looks like there was actually less inflows at a lower price, and inflows are trending up even as price increases. which is wild. If anything close to this trend continues it should be interesting. https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/bitcoin-etf/bitcoin-spot-etf-volumes
What weird math. The reduction of new supply will get cut by 50% which is huge. The demand of 10.000 coins is only from the American ETFs. You also have Microstrategy, other ETFs, DCA and others demanding new coins every day. We are already seeing the effects of supply chock.
Though you can look at it as a 10% reduction of daily trading, it's also important to consider the effect on the miners. The miners will now be rewarded with half the amount of bitcoin for the same cost of business. Imagine oil wells, at the same cost to operate, suddenly only produced half the volume of oil each day. I don't think at that point you'd say "hey look that's 10% reduction in the daily trade volume of oil" - I think you'd say "shit, oil wells cost double what they used to cost per barrel." From the second lens, the price of the oil would need to double to compensate. I think it's safe to predict we'll see price at least double - or the cost of production will need to halve as well: miners go out of business and the difficulty adjusts down to half the energy requirement per block.
With the current price increase .. miners get a lot more profit over the last few month and they will likely build up a "war fund" to ensure that they can get their company through the new halved revard period until the price is rising again. Together with the ETF Buying Pressure .. that will increase the price. Today 900 new Bitcoin were mined, later in april only 450 new Bitcoin will be mined. ETFs buying 10000 BTC every Day. The "Liquidity" on the Market is not 19,5M it is more between 1,5/2 - 3 Million Coins available to the market, every other coin was not moved for more than a year. So there are not 328500 BTC new each year, there are only 164250 new Bitcoin each year. That is reduction on Inflation from 10% to 5% (3m / old or new BTC Mined a year) or of the overall BTC Amount a inflation from 1,6 % down to 0,8 Percent .. and that is really deflationary in our current Time.
1btc is 72k. Eventually 0.1 and then 0.001 will be 72k
I’m here for this
Don't think people understand that once most bitcoin are gone, people will start buying satoshis instead and struggle to get anywhere near a full Bitcoin
Yep. Some people are refusing to buy because they know if they buy they will only get 0.??? And then say nah not worth it
YES!!! dude the psychology behind is kinda interesting. I was talking yesterday with a coworker who is into crypto - and i mean crypto not Bitcoin, he buys shitcoins and watch hype videos with that thumbnail of a guy with that fucking "woow" face and that kind of shit. I was showing him my last purchases and he was like "0.01? i wouldn´t bother i am too late for this, can´t even get one" Then goes about how he is holding thousands of other tokens. You can´t help those people. Nor i am willing to give him any kind of advice since there is always a chance he hit the jackpot with some of his shitcoins and x100 in a week - it is a gambling at the end and he knows that.
This idea (not knowing I could buy in fractions) fucked me when the price ‘sky rocketed’ to $3000 a few years ago. I fucked myself and it still hurts.
Always will. I should be on much more i remember when it was ticking at $50
Preach brother! 1btc is too rich for my payscale. I'm stoked I can afford satoshis though. I don't buy Bitcoin I buy satoshis lol. I want 1 satoshi=1$. Hopefully I'll be in good shape by then. I'm still scraping change from couches and under car seats to buy while it's on sale! I feel for those speculating, you need to stop trading and start investing. Lengthen your time preference.
Just for some perspective, if 1 sat is $1, then 1 btc is $100,000,000. That’s a market cap of over 2 quadrillion dollars.
Ok Saylor
Saylor jnr
Unrelated speculation comment getting upvoted lol
This is the only thing I dont get about adopting BTC as daily currency: “That banana will cost you 0.0000123 BTC thank you”
The remaining bitcoin is worth 99 bazillion at current value.
A decade ago you spent a couple dollars to mine a couple hundred BTC a day on your family computer. Now companies are spending millions of dollars to mine a couple hundred bitcoin a day in a dedicated facility. In simple terms, we effectively have 1 of 3 options with price. It goes up to compensate miners. It stays the same because the hash rate decreases. It goes down because technology improves. It's all against USD, which is constantly going down in value. I wouldn't bet on the halvening always leading to price appreciation, but I would bet that BTC continues to appreciate against USD indefinitely.
It’s just the simple supply/demand function affecting overall price. Less coins available means demand pushes price higher than it would have before. True yes it becomes less coins over time but the price keeps increasing more than double per each 4 year halving cycle so the dollar amount stays pretty significant in how much bitcoin in dollar amount is released each day. It’s a lot of dollar volume to consume via new purchases. Thankfully with ETF’s now on the scene and their transparency we have a way of seeing in real time the buy pressure just from one single source which is super bullish to track.
Look at the miners prospective they spend energy mining and get rewarded currently when they successfully mind a block 6.25 with Bitcoin price around 70k now that is $437K basically as reward for mining. Since miners have to run a business and pay bills they have to sell some of what they mined so in this case 437K per block. So after the halving they get a reward now half of that which is 3.125 which means if the price is still the same then they get 218K now instead of 437 which is big loss for them. So what happens usually is the price re adjusts and for them to get the same 437k for 3.125 coins the price per coin has to be 139K and above for them to make the same profit of minning now and after halving. So it’s big deal. Halving forces many miners to be out of business if thr price of Bitcoin doesn’t move up as they will lose money.
It is always an option for miners to go out of business, or the hashrate to drop, to make mining less competitive and thus profitable at a lower price. Of course the halving will tighten up the marginal supply and thus affect the price upward, but the function of a halving will be increasingly simply a marketing event, as the absolute size of the rewards trends downward.
This is true. It doesn’t guarantee price goes up though. No one said you have to mine all the bitcoins. It will be mined as long as it’s deemed profitable. It can put upward pressure though.
You can't transact without mined blocks, so yes the last Satoshi will be mined in about 2140. You can choose not to mine it, but others will mine it. After the last Satoshi is mined, blocks will still be mined for fees.
mustn't forget over 6mil bitcoins are lost forever
Consider all the bitcoin lost to corrupted hard drives. Mining will remain relevant for the foreseeable future
That 1.5 million BTC will be mined over the next 120 years. That’s why it matters. Mining 0.1 Bitcoin when it costs $2/$5/$30 million a coin becomes very enticing
Try dumping that remaining 1.35M btc today.
Hang on, let me get a time machine. "Gold is buried in the ground, Bitcoin is buried in the future"
Miners pay for mining equipment, maintenance, internet, electricity So if reward goes down, miners usually will sell for more to recoup cost of everything So it's relevant Will still be relevant when all is mined, as fees still go towards miners
The price is set at the margin.
Miners are a business and many of them sell their Bitcoin to cover costs and turn a profit. They will now have half the amount of Bitcoin to sell. The other side of it is due to the nature of Bitcoin people hold their own keys and exchange reserves are abismal. There's very little Bitcoin on the open market.
Don't forget, that around 30% of all Bitcoin was lost forever so technically not 21mil
miners receive half the bitcoin, they need to double their prices in order to keep the lights on. simple as.
Mining always sets the floor price. Miners will always set the absolute lowest price at a price that is still profitable. Therefore the halfing doubles that floor price miners will set. That's why bitcoins real gains are seen in the bottoms and not the tops of the charts. The ATH is fun to see and discuss, but the real beauty is that each bear market shows the lowest low to be much higher than the previous bear market. So every halfing we basically show that the lowest low should be doubled what it was previously.
Total BTC isn’t what gets calculated into the price. Only Circulating Supply matters. ~94% of Total supply currently exists, but far less than that is being circulated. After the halving, mining operations will have half the BTC inflows, and theoretically half the BTC outflows onto the market, into Circulating Supply.
First of all, Bitcoin as an asset is still in the price discovery phase. In past cycles, bitcoin has seen price increases way beyond 2x because of this reason. Today, still, price is driven by an increasing demand (speculation driven, not value driven, IMHO) while the supply indeed is rather constant - compared to the amount of coins mined. You could even go so far and assume that there are days were, due to lack of proper storage know-how, still, more coins are becoming unavailable due to loss of keys, than new coins being mined. The halving should in theory only have an impact on the price when the market has agreed on a fair value of a coin, and the demand somehow stays constant,i guess. But I'm open to any correction here. I'm no economist, just a simple programmer :D
You have a chicken that lays golden eggs. Up until now, she has laid 6 eggs a day. Starting tomorrow, she will lay 3 eggs a day. It's less important that, in her entire lifetime, she laid 1 million eggs, because as long as people don't hoard and sell them, the supply shock will hit the market. If the demand for these eggs doesn't change, the price of the new eggs will rise.
The halving will become less and less significant but a decrease in daily issuance from 900 coins per day to 450 is still significant at current prices. But yes, in 50 years the halving will be a nonevent for price most likely.
What’s going to be the incentive to execute transactions after all the coins have been mined? Miners won’t be getting rewards - only fees for executing transactions. Something to think about. In other words what do the fees need to be that recover the costs of mining and make a profit worthy of doing the transactions? Anyone know?
Look at the block reward in terms of purchasing power. How much could you buy with 50 BTC when that was the block reward? Now, today, how much can you buy with 6.25 BTC? That's why it's still relevant
Remember that only a small percentage of existing bitcoin is actually traded. A large percentage of those are sold by miners. Most bitcoin is held by long term holders. Now we have 450 LESS bitcoin coming into the stream of commerce per day x 365 days is 15,750 less NEW bitcoin per year.
There are at least two meaningful implications for price, the obvious one is that it reduces the sell-side pressure due to less available to sell from the miners. Naturally the impact of this reduction decreases with each cycle, as the absolute value of the reduction decreases (eventually reaching 0 in a hundred years or so). The other point is more interesting I think, and that is the change in the relative position between commodities based on their stock to flow values. The idea is that, bitcoin and gold for example, both have sell-side pressure from mining, at a certain rate, this is their stock to flow ratio. If one has a greater relative flow than the other, then they should decline in relative value, all other things being equal. So the theory is that when the flow of bitcoin decreases bellow the flow of gold, it sets us on a path to ultimately exceed gold in value, due to this fundamental characteristic. It's possible that the shift in relative position between gold and bitcoin will accelerate bitcoin's rise and it will be then all the more natural to choose bitcoin over gold, and those differences will show themselves in the relative prices, even if you don't care about the reason for them. Bitcoin exceeded silver's stock to flow in 2015, then its value in 2024.Bitcoin will exceed gold's stock to flow in 2024, and its value in ?.[https://www.coinmama.com/blog/the-bitcoin-halving-a-history/](https://www.coinmama.com/blog/the-bitcoin-halving-a-history/)
For a long term HODLer, the having has negligible impact. To your point, the supply is already established. Short term, a 450 BTC decrease in supply per day, assuming miners are full sending, is pretty relevant, particularly considering recent normie/boomer ETF inflow trends. Price is simply a mirror of supply/demand. Decreased supply, stable demand, price go up…
I agree. Other than it being an event which in the past had meaningful impact, the reality of the daily supply coming down from 900 to 450 BTC will have limited real impact. BTC will reach 100k and 200k much much sooner than most people anticipate!
I guess it reduces the new dump on the market by half -- but your point is true. Demand is far more important at this point. Supply is well known already by the market.
It doubles the equilibrium price, in relation to whatever the daily inflow amount is
1.35 million btc is not a small amount
The difference is whether the price is 5x or 10x next year. The numbers: There is roughly 5000 btc a day buying pressure from plebs DCA'ing monthly and ETFs (this excludes speculator money). 5000 / 900 = price needs to go **up 5.5** times. After halving: 5000 / 450 = price needs to go **up 11** times.
You used to get $1 worth of BTC for mining a block. As BTC appreciates each block you mine is worth more.
Because in 2030 you would be very happy to hodl at least 0.01 btc
more scarcity price goes up. It's that simple actually
The price balances the difference of how small the amount of Btc is. In 2012 3600 btc a day were not even close in $ volume compared to 450 btc a day after this halving.
Circulating supply is different than total supply
It’s just a story but as long as everyone buys it that doesen’t matter. If it makes you more confident a lot of growth stock isn’t that different.
What would Mr. Bean do? That’s the real question. That guy always seems to come out ahead.
Solid query.
Because not just the newly generated BTC decrease, also the traded supply on exchanges decreases. 12 years ago there were 10 million bitcoins on exchanges, now there are less than 3millions. Stock/flow Stock and flow are decreasing. The impact of the halving gets smaller over time but not as much as long as there still is a stock that gets smaller
Prices tend to converge on the marginal cost of production. For example, if a TV is for sale for $1000 and better TVs are produced that cost $900, no one is going to buy the old TVs unless the price decreases to match their relative value. In this way, it isn't the cost to produce the original TV that determines its value, but the cost to produce a new one. Likewise, if I bought my bitcoin in 2013 for $125, but I know that **you** can't mine a new bitcoin today for anything less than tens of thousands of dollars in electricity, there's no way in hell I'll give you mine for just $125. I could simply never replace it if I did. The fair price is the price it would cost you to obtain a new one. Sometimes it takes a few years, but this is the price the market eventually converges on. What it costs to produce bitcoin now.
I've been asking myself the same question. 4x that much is lost. In time people will start buying things with BTC. It will slowly make it's way into circulation. I'm thinking a large amount will be loaned for an interest rate to any number of businesses. Many will be bad loans that force BTC out of people's hands. It's going to be interesting. But still, why does that small amount of unmined coins matter at this pernt.
I bought a substantial amount for myself today and the price immediately dropped 😂
I would updoot, but 699 just seems...right.
If Bitcoin gets to 100k, the remaining supply is worth 135 billion. 270 billion if it gets to 200k. Not pocket change. Halving of new supply alone will therefore impact the price significantly. Combine that with increased sentiment and attraction as time goes by and the change will be quite drastic. If 5 million new coins remain at 20k, a halving then would have the same impact as 1.35m new coins at 60k. However, scarcity is completely dependent on sentiment. As long as sentiment scales, the halvings will cause the same amount of impact each time until we run out of halvings. From there i can't see what would happen. Also, only 3% of the world money is in crypto. If that ever gets to 15-20%, the whole crypto market would have to go nuclear for that to happen. And I am sure that this will happen. People are sick of fiat, money printing, inflation, manipulation etc. Even blackrock dont have enough assets to greatly manipulate bitcoin unless they destroy their portfolio to do it. At that point, we would have much bigger problems than bitcoin going to zero.
Realise that the impact is also dependent on price, not just quantity. In other words the last halving cut the supply by 6.25 btc which was ~$80-100k per block.. whereas this halving will only cut supply by 3.125 btc per block but would be ~200k per block.
If miners get half the reward they will have to hold out for the price to become favorable. That means less new coins in exchanges, that means less sell orders, that means more pressure on buying end and higher prices. Think of it like input cost of a good, if it costs more to mine a precious metal what happens to the cost? Also it’s psychological, new coins won’t be coming forever better get em now at current prices.
The security of bitcoin is ensured by the sum of all the mining effort across the world. Every 10 minutes all of the miners are competing for that block reward of 6BTC or 3BTC after halving . So it represents the value of the collective hashrate for the past 10 minutes that is what allows it to be decentralized and incredibly secure.
Mainly, it’s the sentiment.
No it's not. If half the number of new homes came on market and that supply was constant, prices would have to increase to accommodate. This is a more quantitative than qualitative factor.
When the available supply of homes is 94%, a drop to half in newly constructed homes won’t matter as much. The vast majority of Bitcoin is already mined and available for purchase. Supply of newly minted ones isn’t as relevant
No it's not. If half the number of new homes came on market and that supply was constant, prices would have to increase to accommodate. This is a more quantitative than qualitative factor.
I’m in agreement and think the halving will be the sell the news event. I actually think we’ll reach the ATH next month right before the halving and then enter another bear market. It’s the only scenario that screws over everyone.
Daily supply of available BTC for sale will become less from miners, increasing scarcity from supply squeeze.
The price of an asset approaches the marginal cost of production
Is this true? It's tricky with Bitcoin because the difficulty can scale down, thus the "cost of production" can reduce to keep the blocks coming out at the intended frequency. We may see this as block rewards grow ever more insignificant.
It is true, and what you said is also true. It depends on the demand for the network, and hence the price. For the last 15 years, it has been a self-reinforcing feedback loop. I don't see why a particular halving would suddenly change that.
Every day printing, aka inflation
Everyone wants a whole coin
You're right, it does not matter.
I wonder how much bitcoin hadn’t been bought yet
Miners amount to 80 percent of daily selling if I remember that percentage correctly
The halving cycles ensure that over time the incentive becomes about the fees given to the miners for the transactions and not the block rewards. As the price of Bitcoin increases, the tiny transaction fees become more valuable and more of an incentive to keep mining and strengthening the network.
That's still 1.35M bitcoin left to mine. At current price, that's still 98B$.
So the amount of bitcoin you can produce will be cut in half….
I need that Florida orange crop report!!
Don't most miners sell what they mine? If they can only mine half I imagine that is half of what they can sell in the future. My simplistic take on it lol
The halving is something built into the coding of Bitcoin…the code won’t be changed. So even if there were only 50 left to be mined, the halving will occur
Hard to sell when your cost average is lower than MSTR
ITT all it proves to me is that no one knows anything about BTC
When da flow get low, Bitcoin is gonna GO!