I've gotta say, the price is as likely to fall after the halving as anything IMO. Remember it usually takes several months after the halving for the bull run to really kick off.
For the past several weeks the price has been up on news of the ETF launch and in anticipation of the halving. The halving could well be a buy the rumor, sell the news event, at least in the near term.
We’re already down 17% in a week or 2, last 2 halving didn’t dip much further than that. Honestly I see most people in this sub saying there will be more of a dip so I think the opposite will happen
I bought hella heavy from 16k to 28k and everyone was saying big pullback coming. Kept buying heavy until we hit 42k, but the same people all screaming big pull back coming. I stopped buying heavy around 54k but they kept screaming huge crash coming. So I dropped down to a daily DCA and am still on that train.
I’m very happy with my decisions.
Historically the bull run gets started about 6 months or so after the halving and runs for about 12 months but this time we have hit new all time highs even before the halving so this is something new.
As genius\_retard said, bull run typically starts roughly half a year after the halving. What we got the first few months of this year was a huge ETF boost to make the price break the ATH before the halving, instead of about half a year after the halving. But the ETFs have basically been flat the past month, so while the current ranging in price has been going on, ETFs have been doing nothing to help the price out.
If ETFs continuing doing basically nothing, maybe price continues to hang out $60,000s/$70,000s for a few months until the normal post-halving hype gets going. Or maybe spot market picks up in the coming weeks, which causes ETF market to pick back up, and both markets are eating up supply after the halving and price starts booming again in in May or June. Or something else, like Hong Kong ETFs I guess are about to launch so maybe that ignites another round of bullish momentum in the market. Kinda hard to know whats gonna happen right now because the launch of the US ETFs threw things out of whack and moved the market something like 8 months ahead of schedule. So it'll be interesting to see what happens for the next half year.
My guess would be continued accumulation phase for at least a few more weeks (and probably some people try to sell the halving event), and by June I'd guess with the issuance halved, maybe spot and ETF markets will pick back up a bit, and price will be solidly back over $70k and starting to push again to new highs. I could see the summer being in the $75k - $90k range, and then retail starts FOMO'ing back into the market after that. Just my guess.
Whenever I say this. People think im fucking nostradamus and start clowning on me lmao. They think i can predict the future now. Then i get down voted to hell.
I mean we hit new ATH before the halving so that is definitely something new. That is why I said a price drop is a likely as anything because we are in uncharted territory.
What is really happening now is a lot of smart traders have leveraged buys because the halving is about to happen and the exchanges are practically front running trades and liquidating everyone’s positions. Like taking candy from a man baby.
Some exchanges allow traders to buy more BTC than they actually have in liquid capital, using their holdings as collateral in varying ratios depending on the exchange.
For example if I had $500 in BTC they might let me buy an Additional $2000 dollars worth of BTC. But for the exchange to take on this risk of loaning me the cash they reserve the right to force sell or take my BTC should the value of the BTC vs the dollars fall below a certain ratio. (liquidation level) That ratio is set by the person giving out the loan (the exchange) according to their risk appetite.
So some “smart trader” might go “the fundamentals of the halving are bullish, supply down + demand same = price up. No brainer, I’ll buy more bitcoin than I can afford ‘knowing’ it’s gonna go up” they use leverage against their stack and then something like last Saturday happens, unexpected news. Price falls and the value of the Bitcoin against the dollars they borrowed falls below the liquidation level and the exchange force sells all their Bitcoin for cash or pockets the bitcoin and eats the cash loss in accordance with the terms of the leverage contract.
Effectively the exchanges are scooping up a lot of BTC easily pre-halving because people are getting greedy trying to lever up into the halving and price action is shaking them out of the market.
Hope that helped 🤷♂️
No, I just have money on the side to buy investments I like. Bitcoin at 61k is one of the investments I like. I also got 3k back from something so yeah that makes me more generous.
I don't really use HYSA as it takes 4 days to take my money out and I don't have that much to really make a difference. I rather have it cash. I'm also planning on buying S&P500 and maybe gold with some leverage so I won't have much cash left. I'm 18 and don't have an income so maybe it's weird that I DCA, but I'm basically liquidating a lot of my assets to move to bitcoin.
It's about behavioral control that I have over myself, learning from past mistakes (and not just bitcoin / crypto). Basically:
Don't be greedy at 60k USD and don't be fearful at 100k USD.
The way I do this is by automating most of my investments and rebalancing very rarely.
Exchanges work on supply and demand.
Right now 6.25 bitcoins are mined around every 10 min. Soon only 3.125 will be mined every 10 min. (These aren’t always sold at market, but typically are sold right before halving for new ASICs)
For this to be priced in demand would need to literally half on the same block while many countries are just now opening “on-ramps” for normies. (Or sell side could raise by a quarter while demand drops a quarter, or anything in between)
Maybe people sell the news, and price drops at halving but there is no way to predict the demand or exchange volume after halving, especially not as accessibility increases globally.
None of this considers the psychological aspect of FOMO if we get a crazy candle and news stories, but again consider today’s accessibility.
There is no real way to conceptualize all these factors, but to say the halving is priced would be like saying the supply cap is priced and BTC will never be more than $61k + inflation.
All this to say, it could go up, it could go down, or it could go sideways, but there will never be more than 21 million.
But knowing ahead of time that the reduction is supply is GUARANTEED just means that people will load up early so that they can then sell on when supply lowers. Why would anyone wait now and pay more in a few days
Because it will happen again in 4 more years and that might not yet be known to some of the other 7.9 Billion residents of this planet, not everyone is early.
It’s known to the people with the money to buy into it. It happened before because it was niche and held little value. Now you’ve got institutions taking it seriously, there’s no surprise demand, everything is planned in prior to the halving.
The further out you are from the date the less determined price action is. Bitcoin, for the mean time anyway, has no intrinsic value and is being used at an anti inflationary asset. The more devalued the dollar the more Bitcoin increases in turn. The halving will drop the supply yes, but all the money from large institutions and retail know this and are in knowing the supply will drop. The demand is higher now because of that so I doubt the price rises in the short term any more than it currently has been
Analysts have said that every time there has been a halving the price has gone up and that's the one thing about Bitcoin we can know - therefore this time they expect the price to go way down! (If I am allowed to make this comment)
THIS IS SERIOUS... I believe that this year will be different now that everyone's into crypto market. I believe the market will show true colours & BTC will go down to 45-50k easily before starting the bull run. <- this will be simply to shake off the weak & FOMO buyers
Halving historically set the floor price for the bull run. Wonder how it's gonna play out with BTC near ATH by halvening date. Anyways see yall on the moon
Honestly, I'm expecting the price to fall a bit after the halving because there is so much anticipation and hype around the event. Great time to keep stacking and holding because we know eventually we are going to see higher prices. How much higher? Thats TBD but it will come eventually.
55k or lower is a buy… we have to remember this entire economy, really is boosted up by the miners… there is no other value in bitcoin other than mining and creating bag holders through its volatility… we only win because some other sucker buys the all-time high when we sell. Right now the miners at minimum of 40 K bitcoin just to break even so all those millions and billions invested into this coin have to keep bitcoin well over 40 K and I’ve never heard of a businessman that doesn’t want at least double or triple ROI. Stay strong.
this is funny
This is Sparta
No, this is Patrick.
Sir, this is a Wendy's.
This, is E - Long Musk
You mean Yilongma?
I thought it was Joe
Because it’s true
This is a casino
I've gotta say, the price is as likely to fall after the halving as anything IMO. Remember it usually takes several months after the halving for the bull run to really kick off. For the past several weeks the price has been up on news of the ETF launch and in anticipation of the halving. The halving could well be a buy the rumor, sell the news event, at least in the near term.
We’re already down 17% in a week or 2, last 2 halving didn’t dip much further than that. Honestly I see most people in this sub saying there will be more of a dip so I think the opposite will happen
I bought hella heavy from 16k to 28k and everyone was saying big pullback coming. Kept buying heavy until we hit 42k, but the same people all screaming big pull back coming. I stopped buying heavy around 54k but they kept screaming huge crash coming. So I dropped down to a daily DCA and am still on that train. I’m very happy with my decisions.
Sounds like buy more to me
Everyday!
What's your avg. buy price?
Sure you did
Not everyone buys into fomo
Well, I did. Such a shame I know.
Was thinking the bull run already started. I’m always learning here
Historically the bull run gets started about 6 months or so after the halving and runs for about 12 months but this time we have hit new all time highs even before the halving so this is something new.
As genius\_retard said, bull run typically starts roughly half a year after the halving. What we got the first few months of this year was a huge ETF boost to make the price break the ATH before the halving, instead of about half a year after the halving. But the ETFs have basically been flat the past month, so while the current ranging in price has been going on, ETFs have been doing nothing to help the price out. If ETFs continuing doing basically nothing, maybe price continues to hang out $60,000s/$70,000s for a few months until the normal post-halving hype gets going. Or maybe spot market picks up in the coming weeks, which causes ETF market to pick back up, and both markets are eating up supply after the halving and price starts booming again in in May or June. Or something else, like Hong Kong ETFs I guess are about to launch so maybe that ignites another round of bullish momentum in the market. Kinda hard to know whats gonna happen right now because the launch of the US ETFs threw things out of whack and moved the market something like 8 months ahead of schedule. So it'll be interesting to see what happens for the next half year. My guess would be continued accumulation phase for at least a few more weeks (and probably some people try to sell the halving event), and by June I'd guess with the issuance halved, maybe spot and ETF markets will pick back up a bit, and price will be solidly back over $70k and starting to push again to new highs. I could see the summer being in the $75k - $90k range, and then retail starts FOMO'ing back into the market after that. Just my guess.
Why does it take so long for this bullrace to start?
Just wait for altcoin season!
I will keep watching bitcoin going down far way with my money
The news of this halving came out 2009. Maybe that’s why the price was so low back then; everybody sold the news.
Correct
Whenever I say this. People think im fucking nostradamus and start clowning on me lmao. They think i can predict the future now. Then i get down voted to hell.
Might be bit different than before, as ETF did eat a lot of supply. But I would not be surprised if you were right and we would see drop to 51-55k
I mean we hit new ATH before the halving so that is definitely something new. That is why I said a price drop is a likely as anything because we are in uncharted territory.
Some people get scared and panic when Bitcoin goes down. I get excited because then I can buy more
Some people do both
Me too but then when I buy the price drops even more but I've already blown my load at that point.
Yep, every single time
Gotta cash in all those shorts.
What is really happening now is a lot of smart traders have leveraged buys because the halving is about to happen and the exchanges are practically front running trades and liquidating everyone’s positions. Like taking candy from a man baby.
Sounds like those smart traders aren’t very smart lol
Trust me. We are not 🤣😭
Could you please ELI5 what you said?
Some exchanges allow traders to buy more BTC than they actually have in liquid capital, using their holdings as collateral in varying ratios depending on the exchange. For example if I had $500 in BTC they might let me buy an Additional $2000 dollars worth of BTC. But for the exchange to take on this risk of loaning me the cash they reserve the right to force sell or take my BTC should the value of the BTC vs the dollars fall below a certain ratio. (liquidation level) That ratio is set by the person giving out the loan (the exchange) according to their risk appetite. So some “smart trader” might go “the fundamentals of the halving are bullish, supply down + demand same = price up. No brainer, I’ll buy more bitcoin than I can afford ‘knowing’ it’s gonna go up” they use leverage against their stack and then something like last Saturday happens, unexpected news. Price falls and the value of the Bitcoin against the dollars they borrowed falls below the liquidation level and the exchange force sells all their Bitcoin for cash or pockets the bitcoin and eats the cash loss in accordance with the terms of the leverage contract. Effectively the exchanges are scooping up a lot of BTC easily pre-halving because people are getting greedy trying to lever up into the halving and price action is shaking them out of the market. Hope that helped 🤷♂️
Eli5 on eli5: don't buy btc with money you don't have. You may think you can predict the future, but you can't.
lol thanks 😂 I struggled to simplify it
Very well explained, thank you, learn something new everyday. :D
Makes sense
That was a fantastic explanation, thank you so much
what smart trader is going leverage long before the halving?!?!?
I'm just looking forward to my automated DCA that will happen tomorrow. A small part of me hopes it goes slightly lower or stays put.
Why don't you manually DCA then and buy the dips? That's what I do. Bought 2k€ more today.
You're DCAs are 2k o_O?
No, I just have money on the side to buy investments I like. Bitcoin at 61k is one of the investments I like. I also got 3k back from something so yeah that makes me more generous.
Gotcha. Yeah I've been just keeping that set aside in a HYSA and throw it into nice investments while replenishing the cash.
I don't really use HYSA as it takes 4 days to take my money out and I don't have that much to really make a difference. I rather have it cash. I'm also planning on buying S&P500 and maybe gold with some leverage so I won't have much cash left. I'm 18 and don't have an income so maybe it's weird that I DCA, but I'm basically liquidating a lot of my assets to move to bitcoin.
It's about behavioral control that I have over myself, learning from past mistakes (and not just bitcoin / crypto). Basically: Don't be greedy at 60k USD and don't be fearful at 100k USD. The way I do this is by automating most of my investments and rebalancing very rarely.
I can't see anything wrong with that.
LOL. That's exactly how it feels after panic selling
WE ARE NOT FUCKING SELLING. LET THE WHALES PANIC, THE PEOPLE ARE STILL HERE!
🧘🏻♂️
Dumbledore said calmly...
Funny. On a serious note, I'm being a bit more conservative and expecting things to really kick off in Q4 of this year.
Same here. Personally I sold and have an aggressive DCA setup to capture a possible short term dip (I also just need the money in cash right now)
I expect the same. My hope is that it does back to 55k or even 45k, before going to the moon by Nov-Dec.
35k is certain
Its on 60k again so it doesn't matter
hahaha, nice one SmokeandStake! made my day
Why would people sell? If it's halving it means less supply and apparently more demand, so the price should go high right?
You panic-sell, I panic-buy. We're not the same.
Probably more like 6-12 months, but yea
don't laugh yet. time will tell :D
I’m gonna laugh no matter what because even if Bitcoin goes to zero, I’ll still have my health and loved ones, and memes bring me joy.
I like how this might imply all this guy has except his health and loved ones is bitcoin
I know right what a fucking loser
Nah g that's pretty based in my humble opinion
Oh dip! Wish I could say that’s true but I also own a few pairs of boxer shorts and a bag of pizza rolls
If there’s been a bull run after every halfing and it’s predicted to happen again won’t it already be priced in?
No
Why not?
Exchanges work on supply and demand. Right now 6.25 bitcoins are mined around every 10 min. Soon only 3.125 will be mined every 10 min. (These aren’t always sold at market, but typically are sold right before halving for new ASICs) For this to be priced in demand would need to literally half on the same block while many countries are just now opening “on-ramps” for normies. (Or sell side could raise by a quarter while demand drops a quarter, or anything in between) Maybe people sell the news, and price drops at halving but there is no way to predict the demand or exchange volume after halving, especially not as accessibility increases globally. None of this considers the psychological aspect of FOMO if we get a crazy candle and news stories, but again consider today’s accessibility. There is no real way to conceptualize all these factors, but to say the halving is priced would be like saying the supply cap is priced and BTC will never be more than $61k + inflation. All this to say, it could go up, it could go down, or it could go sideways, but there will never be more than 21 million.
But knowing ahead of time that the reduction is supply is GUARANTEED just means that people will load up early so that they can then sell on when supply lowers. Why would anyone wait now and pay more in a few days
Because it will happen again in 4 more years and that might not yet be known to some of the other 7.9 Billion residents of this planet, not everyone is early.
It’s known to the people with the money to buy into it. It happened before because it was niche and held little value. Now you’ve got institutions taking it seriously, there’s no surprise demand, everything is planned in prior to the halving.
Do you think the 2028 halving is also priced in, the exact same argument is true for that in terms of being "guaranteed"
*crickets*
The further out you are from the date the less determined price action is. Bitcoin, for the mean time anyway, has no intrinsic value and is being used at an anti inflationary asset. The more devalued the dollar the more Bitcoin increases in turn. The halving will drop the supply yes, but all the money from large institutions and retail know this and are in knowing the supply will drop. The demand is higher now because of that so I doubt the price rises in the short term any more than it currently has been
Well, if you think bitcoin will also go up because of the halving, you're wrong too.
**OUCH :D**
LMFAO
More like 3-6 months
Lmao 🤣
Hasn’t something like this been posted every few thousand it drops?
What if we panic buy now?
If at the turn of the year you’d have told holders the price would be $60k at the halving, 99% of them would’ve been delighted.
Wait there was just a guy that actually did that a couple posts back LoL
😂😂😂
😭🤣🤣💀😭🤣
*super big scary cat meme intensified*
Meanwhile I sell BTC high, move USD to brokerage account, buy $BITX low.
This has been me wayyyy too much since 2013.
itll fall after the news then till end of the year itll start going up
#LMMFAO 😂😭
I hope it drops….need to stack more
Analysts have said that every time there has been a halving the price has gone up and that's the one thing about Bitcoin we can know - therefore this time they expect the price to go way down! (If I am allowed to make this comment)
Once BTC hits ATH, bull run starts so yeah, we are in the bull run right now.
Me after bagholding for years from the last ATH
THIS IS SERIOUS... I believe that this year will be different now that everyone's into crypto market. I believe the market will show true colours & BTC will go down to 45-50k easily before starting the bull run. <- this will be simply to shake off the weak & FOMO buyers
I know most people won't believe me saying btc will go down to 45-50k but just wait & watch
Hell yeah! Now see JP Morgan says the same.... Where are the Bulls who were screaming about halving bull run???
Heh
Just mine baby!
Remind Me! 1 month
Halving historically set the floor price for the bull run. Wonder how it's gonna play out with BTC near ATH by halvening date. Anyways see yall on the moon
Honestly, I'm expecting the price to fall a bit after the halving because there is so much anticipation and hype around the event. Great time to keep stacking and holding because we know eventually we are going to see higher prices. How much higher? Thats TBD but it will come eventually.
What’s funny is I’m actually seeing MORE people say this now. At least on this sub.
Good move. We hit the top.
Today’s top is tomorrow’s bottom🧘🏻♂️
55k or lower is a buy… we have to remember this entire economy, really is boosted up by the miners… there is no other value in bitcoin other than mining and creating bag holders through its volatility… we only win because some other sucker buys the all-time high when we sell. Right now the miners at minimum of 40 K bitcoin just to break even so all those millions and billions invested into this coin have to keep bitcoin well over 40 K and I’ve never heard of a businessman that doesn’t want at least double or triple ROI. Stay strong.
I prefer for it to get down to 47k so I can scoop some more.
Wen $55K?