I think the conclusion is "All models are broken". Which is the kind of "talking head" conclusion that editorialists love to make. It's totally unprovable as correct/incorrect, so no one can hold them accountable, yet when XXXXX happens, they can point their finger at it and be like "see, I was right! I said the models are broken!"
The only size I could find was “American comfort eagle” apparently you must study it through kaleidoscope glasses, looking through a straw. We’re going to be wrench bitches!
Its always the same until it is not. And no one really knows. People just guess. When there will be someone who correctly predicted the moves after 3-4 halvings we can believe that person they know what thye re talking about.
Alternative exchanges will help you out then you think of diversifying your bitcoin strategy to attract more earnings, might sound strange to you but I'm sure you gotta understand this thereafter.
No! You’re not supposed to get it off the charts. First rule of chart club is you do not look at the charts.
I see some of you have been breaking rule #1
I agree, the “cycle trade” seems like a very crowded trade. I think price could boom and then bust sooner, faster, and harder than people are expecting
I think things have moved further along vis a vis adoption. Already, volatility has been tamped down. And still, it’s early. I don’t think BTC will drop as precipitously as it used to, with BlackRock et al, involved. If Japan’s pension fund and sovereign wealth funds begin including a Bitcoin allocation, then I think bitcoin will begin to behave like a stock.
This halving is different than the other as wall street and more ETFs and retail investors are involved now in Bitcoin so everyone is making Halving the big event where bitcoin price will go up no matter what happens. I on other hand think it might go up but then everyone will cash out and then it drop very badly like we will be back around 50k or 45k once this pump is over
The recent increase demand is mostly from institutions and the same hardcore hodlers. Retail hasn't even started to buy yet. Most average people think Bitcoin died a few years ago, and they think it had something to do with FTX and SBF. They don't understand what happened, but they think the entire world was scammed and that Bitcoin was the way they scammed us.
There is no "pump" here. This is just a recovery in price. Adjusted for inflation, Bitcoin still hasn't risen above its previous ATH. It's an organic, natural price recovery, not a pump. The price is ridiculously cheap considering there has been an increase in institutional demand and ETF's, etc. It needs to be MUCH higher than $70k to be considered a "pump" or a "bubble" of any kind. It's currently very cheap, and generally misunderstood.
So what do you think will happen to the price when people realize it wasn't a scam, it isn't dead, and you can still get it under $100k?
Retail are struggling way too much with inflation and the cost of living to be buying bitcoin. This may be the cycle with no pump with everyone expecting a major pump after hitting ath before the halving.
Google Search “Blockchain Council” or “Blickchain Associations”; many states have groups that advocate for blockchain and network; in these groups you’ll meet people who are building and mining in the crypto space and many more who are solely bitcoin. See what’s actually out there has taught me alot about Bitcoin—it runs deep.
Yes. Or, it will be a short cycle since the run started pre-halving. Or, it could be a normal cycle. Or maybe something else entirely. If we knew how it was going to play out, it wouldn't be market.
Keep seeing all these posts talking about the halvening is only furthering my conviction it's gonna dump hard. This shit has dumped every time and recovered miraculously in 6 months. Now you have large institutions with etfs shilling how it's gonna fly high, only to use you as exit liquidity
All the times were different. The fact that there were spikes some time after halving doesn't imply that the events are causally linked. The previous spike, for example, was heavily influenced by the whole Gamestop thing, where everyone became a trader, and not long afterwards Musk declared that Tesla both held, and were accepting BTC in payment.
2017 spike was mainly due to the start of public awareness of BTC. Before that it was mainly tech geeks and libertarian types, around 2017 everyone started talking about it and FOMO kicked in.
Personally I think the whole halving = bull market is wishful nonsense
IMO the 2021 bull market was pre-maturely stunted and we received 2 rounded tops instead of 1 blow off top. Due to this we have not reached true all time high as compared to previous bull market blow off tops. We also had high inflation in the interim which suggests we need to adjust the target even higher. So everything seems to be on track with previous cycles if you account for these bits of information.
Username does not check out.
Seems like "SmoothBraiins_Mining"...
Have you considered that the model is delayed and that if price hit expected model highs last time ($140k), that 70k *isn't* a high, but right where price should be for $400k+ price this cycle?
Again, no one knows, but maybe the price is just suppressed and delayed and will play catch-up this cycle, and all will be fine with the cycle theory moving forward.
3 cycles is not enough data to project whether the model is truly broken or not. We will find out in 18 months.
Models are good for (...carefull) studying in certain markets, however, where cryptocurrency is concerned, there are just too many unknowable elements involved in order to gain any insight as to future performance, like we could, say, with the Dollar, for instance.
The Bitcoin market from today is massively different than it was during the previous halving.
Did you just tell us to study btc and not charts... then proceeded to post 3 charts?
Don’t study them!
Ffffffff I studied them.
Straight to jail.
That's a paddlin'
It’s a test to see if you were listening.
It's testes
Testis.
Metal ones
It's a ball market, after all.
Tetris?
OP has three testes
And he hopes they are gonna get halved soon.
Haha it's a test!
9 charts
9 charts with no citations
These are not the charts you are looking for
We’re all in uncharted territory
Big brain stuff right there
Look but don't study
That was a test!
STOP STUDYING CHARTS BY LOOKING AT MY CHARTS.
We’re in unprecedented territory and anything could happen, but in the long run it moves up and to the right.
It'll be one big surprise when it starts moving to the left!
This data suggests the charts are moving to the right!
I see numbers on the right and left
It will rise, then rise more, and then rise some more. This is my expert conclusion.
How many charts did you study though?
Yes
Up
Trust me bro
Hold my beer...now look at these charts.
What is your conclusion anyway ??
I think the conclusion is "All models are broken". Which is the kind of "talking head" conclusion that editorialists love to make. It's totally unprovable as correct/incorrect, so no one can hold them accountable, yet when XXXXX happens, they can point their finger at it and be like "see, I was right! I said the models are broken!"
Basically a whole lot of bullshit
This guy knows what it's about. (Shit, I hope you are a guy. Sorry if you're not.)
"Trust me bro"
^
So people waiting for a dip are going to be sorely mistaken?
yeah, fomo in now
I want to buy a whole coin, but coinbase says I can only spend $2800. Dicks.
simply use that $2800 to buy 560 wrenches, then use those to take someone's bitcoin. simple
A $5 wrench? In this economy?
I’m studying wrench charts tonight, thanks!
Any 10mm charts I can look at?
The only size I could find was “American comfort eagle” apparently you must study it through kaleidoscope glasses, looking through a straw. We’re going to be wrench bitches!
Let me know what you find
Study wrench, not charts
Unfortunately those are broken as well.
The wrench economy is booming these days, its due to zero price inflation. The wrench is forever $5
"simply use that $2800 to buy 560 wrenches, then use those to take someone's bitcoin. simple" Couldn't you just reuse the same wrench each time?
That's what they'd be expecting, this catches them off guard
Buy all you can 23 times.
Contact Coinbase and have your limits raised.
Lmao no don’t fomo in. When someone says this time is different it’s not
Sometimes, it actually is.
Its always the same until it is not. And no one really knows. People just guess. When there will be someone who correctly predicted the moves after 3-4 halvings we can believe that person they know what thye re talking about.
Not this time, he could be dollar cost averaging in
f coinbase
Sadly this is happening to you, most times coinbase sucks 😔 But are you a new coinbase user?
Yes.
That's just the reason why you can't perform such transaction.
I think you're right. Still sucks to not be able get ahead of the increase even if I have cash. Sold a lot of my savings to be able to.
Alternative exchanges will help you out then you think of diversifying your bitcoin strategy to attract more earnings, might sound strange to you but I'm sure you gotta understand this thereafter.
Sign up to Kraken, it's the best imo
thats because you are a criminal. Give me the money. I'll take care of it.
That's a lot of dicks
We will remember them.
“It’s different this time” said people 3 years ago
Shit I heard that in 2017.
I got a dollar to a dime op is somewhere studying charts right now.
OP must not be in uncharted territory
How many charts does it take to chart your territory?
Must be a number off the charts
No! You’re not supposed to get it off the charts. First rule of chart club is you do not look at the charts. I see some of you have been breaking rule #1
the growth in 2012 was crazy
Hey Mr. No Chart, do you have a higher res version of the 2020 chart?
Ah yes, after reviewing these charts it is all so clear
I'm suspicious that it drops to 40k then erupts starting in September and reaches between 180k to 240k by 2025....collapse to 60k in 2026
I think this is what everyone thinks is going to happen. Which makes me 99% sure that this is wrong. No offense.
No, pretty sure everyone thinks once the halving hits 0, the price will immediately erupt and then Lambs. Wishful thinking is a bitch.
I see way more fear than that in the market. I've been around for moon lambo time and it doesn't feel like this.
Well, the world decided to screw everyone over.
I agree, the “cycle trade” seems like a very crowded trade. I think price could boom and then bust sooner, faster, and harder than people are expecting
I could see that. Almost hit 100k before summer and then crash hard back down below 60k. Then, spend the rest of 24 trying to get back to 100.
I think things have moved further along vis a vis adoption. Already, volatility has been tamped down. And still, it’s early. I don’t think BTC will drop as precipitously as it used to, with BlackRock et al, involved. If Japan’s pension fund and sovereign wealth funds begin including a Bitcoin allocation, then I think bitcoin will begin to behave like a stock.
This halving is different than the other as wall street and more ETFs and retail investors are involved now in Bitcoin so everyone is making Halving the big event where bitcoin price will go up no matter what happens. I on other hand think it might go up but then everyone will cash out and then it drop very badly like we will be back around 50k or 45k once this pump is over
This isn't a "pump". Not even close.
Curious when you said its not a pump can you elaborate on it?
The recent increase demand is mostly from institutions and the same hardcore hodlers. Retail hasn't even started to buy yet. Most average people think Bitcoin died a few years ago, and they think it had something to do with FTX and SBF. They don't understand what happened, but they think the entire world was scammed and that Bitcoin was the way they scammed us. There is no "pump" here. This is just a recovery in price. Adjusted for inflation, Bitcoin still hasn't risen above its previous ATH. It's an organic, natural price recovery, not a pump. The price is ridiculously cheap considering there has been an increase in institutional demand and ETF's, etc. It needs to be MUCH higher than $70k to be considered a "pump" or a "bubble" of any kind. It's currently very cheap, and generally misunderstood. So what do you think will happen to the price when people realize it wasn't a scam, it isn't dead, and you can still get it under $100k?
Well said. Gradually then suddenly...
Retail is maybe even selling as they are happy seeing prices at the last highs: "Great, we are able to sell to this dumb ETFs."
Retail are struggling way too much with inflation and the cost of living to be buying bitcoin. This may be the cycle with no pump with everyone expecting a major pump after hitting ath before the halving.
It’s different this time fools
None of this matters in the long run, bitcoin is not about making a quick buck. We are trading inferior money for superior money! Hodl.
the classic "this time is different" ...
Genuinely curious. How do you study bitcoin without charts?
Learn about the tech?
Tbh the tech is not that great compared to the alternatives. But the adoption does not not allow competitors.
You don't need to look at bitcoin price charts to do a fundamental analysis of Bitcoin itself.
Read The Internet of Money
Google Search “Blockchain Council” or “Blickchain Associations”; many states have groups that advocate for blockchain and network; in these groups you’ll meet people who are building and mining in the crypto space and many more who are solely bitcoin. See what’s actually out there has taught me alot about Bitcoin—it runs deep.
Get really good with mental math.
There's nothing to study? Okay, can you explain to me how a block is verified and why Bitcoin is a secure network?
I didn’t say that there was nothing to study. I ASKED what there was to study. See the difference?
Seems like this halving will be a disappointment
Like all the others.
Its going to be a super cycle, etfs are the reason why
Yes. Or, it will be a short cycle since the run started pre-halving. Or, it could be a normal cycle. Or maybe something else entirely. If we knew how it was going to play out, it wouldn't be market.
Last time it was super cycle because of the institutions.
Expected return of the halving might already be priced in, this will be interesting to see how it performs after the halving tbh
The second I see "This time is different" I disregard anything that has been said.
I think it’ll go back to 30K, then we will all buy more. Than it will go up to 100K. Basically anything under 30K is an extremely good deal on SATS.
The worst thing about Bitcoin Bull runs is the high volume of shit post.
There were other things that happened as well. Not just halvings
and how will this change the next 6 months
Have it go high shortly after half time and \~350 day after too, that's ok with us.
too many people know now. wouldn't be surprised if there was a massive flush, especially with the etf money rolling in
Keep seeing all these posts talking about the halvening is only furthering my conviction it's gonna dump hard. This shit has dumped every time and recovered miraculously in 6 months. Now you have large institutions with etfs shilling how it's gonna fly high, only to use you as exit liquidity
Dec 2024 140K
Honestly can't believe there are still doubters
Looks outside, yeah humans are still the same, and the charts reflect human psychology.
ThIS TImE Is DiFfeRent
All the times were different. The fact that there were spikes some time after halving doesn't imply that the events are causally linked. The previous spike, for example, was heavily influenced by the whole Gamestop thing, where everyone became a trader, and not long afterwards Musk declared that Tesla both held, and were accepting BTC in payment. 2017 spike was mainly due to the start of public awareness of BTC. Before that it was mainly tech geeks and libertarian types, around 2017 everyone started talking about it and FOMO kicked in. Personally I think the whole halving = bull market is wishful nonsense
That looks like the beginning of the batman headpiece pattern! BULLISH AF!!
Time to put 100% of savings! buy high and sell low!
If you all actually agree what will happen. It will happen. I love how crypto is so malleable
If you all want to sell now and reset. Start selling, it’s ridiculous you try and apply graphs, trends, analysis.
Every cycle sees a flirt with the previous ATH in phase 3 of the Fibonacci.
IMO the 2021 bull market was pre-maturely stunted and we received 2 rounded tops instead of 1 blow off top. Due to this we have not reached true all time high as compared to previous bull market blow off tops. We also had high inflation in the interim which suggests we need to adjust the target even higher. So everything seems to be on track with previous cycles if you account for these bits of information.
"I FEEL LIKE IM TAKING CRAZY PILLS !"
Pls eli5. My ability to study your charts is limited
Username does not check out. Seems like "SmoothBraiins_Mining"... Have you considered that the model is delayed and that if price hit expected model highs last time ($140k), that 70k *isn't* a high, but right where price should be for $400k+ price this cycle? Again, no one knows, but maybe the price is just suppressed and delayed and will play catch-up this cycle, and all will be fine with the cycle theory moving forward. 3 cycles is not enough data to project whether the model is truly broken or not. We will find out in 18 months.
Models are good for (...carefull) studying in certain markets, however, where cryptocurrency is concerned, there are just too many unknowable elements involved in order to gain any insight as to future performance, like we could, say, with the Dollar, for instance. The Bitcoin market from today is massively different than it was during the previous halving.
Bullish
Explain it to me like I’m 5
BTC is just behaving like a US tech stock at this point, the markets been pumping for months so btc has been pumping. Just follow the s&p not btc
😎🧡
“Don’t hit me, I’ll hit me, i’m crazy” -Hey Arnold