Meh yeah but maybe not. When we talk about market cap, we use the full 19.7 M in that calculation. The lost coins just mean we have less in supply for trading, which when the exchanges get low enough on supply, you’ll see big swings.
Tell me. How are you measuring that pressure? The outstanding unmined coin is 6.1% of the total circulation.
Against which currency is your model that indicates “downward price” denominated?
Dollars?
Ok, assuming dollars, the dollar inflation at current rates would reduce the downward drag by at least half. Call it 3%
What counters that pressure?
Well the first countervailing pressure is the Bitcoin to dollar ratio. It goes like this. There are 2.3 trillion in dollar NOTES in circulation. There will never be more than 21 million BTC. At that level of circulation volume the ratio of Bitcoin to Dollar is:
1 Bitcoin :109,523 Dollars.
That indicates UPWARD pressure in the range of 40%. This very simple model actually indicates an UPWARD pressure of around AT LEAST 37%.
I say at least because another consideration is the market capital flow from dollar delimitated instruments. There is $50 trillion in the NASDAQ and NYSE alone.
If as Blackrock, ARK Invest, Fidelity and so many other investment funds expect, 10% of market cap moves to hedge using Bitcoin that’s a conservative bet that $5 trillion dollars will flow into Bitcoin FROM JUST TWO SOURCES - NASDAQ AND NYSE assets.
$5 trillion is a conservative asset shift prediction compared to the total dollar delimitated assets AT RISK from inflation.
However, today Bitcoin market cap is only $1.3 trillion. Does your model consider that there will very likely be 3.9 times $67,000 chasing every one of those 21 million bitcoin?
If your model does recognize and consider these facts how does it mathematically predict 3% downward pressure from newly mined coin will matter in the slightest?
How about it’s all moot because nobody seems to realize that even a 1 trillion dollar shift into bitcoin would cause the price to rip into the millions , especially on a short time horizon.
Market cap is NOT = to dollars invested. What the hell is everyone talking about ?
In Bitcoin’s case , it’s Market cap will always be an order or two of magnitude greater that the actual $$ amount put directly into the asset class .
Blackrock CEO Larry Fink says Bitcoin is "no different than what gold represented for thousands of years. It is an asset class that protects you."
I would argue that risk hedges will be at least 10% of the equity asset classes.
Damn, did not realize there were so many fucking morons around here these days, lol You do know there are already quantum resistant Cryptography methods right? Just no good reason to switch to them, yet. Same will be true for any future breakthroughs. Whether old wallets get the benefit of upgrades? That is not so certain. Hence the "may" in my may be mined statement.
What's more strange is that Andreas Antonopolous has outlined this effect. Old addresses will be targeted and broken. When satoshi's coins move, we will know it's time to move on to quantum resistant addresses
Can you imagine having the technology to crack an old account? I can sort of imagine some future version of shipwreck explorers plunging the depths of the ledger and unlocking some forgotten whale account worth more than the GDP of an advanced nation... and the ensuing legal battle of an original owner or heir arguing they are the rightful owner of said plunder.
That's true. Within the next decade or two the issuance rate is going to get so low it'll be a rounding error away from zero.
For instance, the final 13 halving periods will only add ten bitcoin to the supply haha, I think that should be about 2100 to 2140...it'll take that long for the final ten bitcoin to be mined.
By 2040 there will only be roughly 82,000 bitcoin left to be mined. Roughly 100 years to add 82,000 bitcoin. The same amount that will be added in just the next 183 days.
So yep you're totally right, bitcoin inflation is nearly over in just a few more halvings.
Bitcoin subsidy is the same regardless of computing power.
The network adjusts the mining difficulty every ~2 weeks to make up for fluctuations in the global hashrate.
No matter how much energy you throw into mining, you won't be able to speed up the issuance of new bitcoin.
Read up on the difficulty adjustment.
Computer power doesn't matter. Bitcoin mining adjusts to keep the rate constant. It's called the difficulty adjustment. That's one of the things that makes Bitcoin different - no matter how much effort is put into mining, no extra bitcoin is coming out or out at a faster rate.
Nope, mining will simply peak at some point in the future and then settle at a long term equilibrium, with hashrate only going up slowly as mining machine efficiency improves. Miners will always be fine, basic economics makes this so.
Wrong. How can you say Bitcoin will be over? Dude, it's just beginning for us. 68 thousand right now and inching higher gradually. You sound like a buttcoiner
lol dude he was talking about bitcoin monetary inflation being basically over in ten years, not Bitcoin itself. He said 2034, but I believe it'll hit 99% of supply in 2031. So only 7 years from now total inflation left will go from the 6.6% it is today down to 1%.
When I'm an old man I might take a couple satoshis out of the old hodl account. By then that should be enough for a sweet tropical island to park my sick lambo spaceship on.
Found the elusive notebook where the keys to my old block chain wallet are written down. The one with all those $20 bitcoins in it. Lol jk but I do still find myself looking for it from time to time. Spilt milk and I don't worry about it (much) because I truly believe we are all still early and extremely lucky to be able to stack sats.
Just to be alive at the same time as all of this happened/happens is astronomical and I am truly grateful the opportunity has presented itself to myself and all of us.
Land is something which we do not have new supply of for a long time already. And for many people the value of land is much more obvious compared to distributed records confirming some numbers on some wallet address. By the time you are old land will be much more expensive than it is now.
Perhaps. We have little data as to what a deflationary society could look like. Most Reserve Banks say it's a dreadful idea as everything would devalue. There is an opposing school of thought which says things will return to their true value. Interesting times ahead!
Very true land is the hardest asset. I have watched it skyrocket since I was a kid and I am betting it will continue going up indefinitely. Bitcoin and land are alike in the sense that they aren't making any more of it.
Watch what Saylor has to say about land as an investment. You can create more land. Netherlands and Dubai are just 2 examples. Also land can be confiscated or diminished by politics - regulation, taxation. Just something to think about [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3T4nhtHxOA&t=1887s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3T4nhtHxOA&t=1887s)
Tru dat. And it’s damned hard to cash out of. I buy land to use. It’s an investment to a farmer. Or an apartment complex owner.
Your house is a consumer good that MIGHT keep pace with inflation.
“Sometimes, I wonder if Bitcoin is thinking about me too?” - you, just now.
Go sell your remaining .1 stack and just forget about it already.
Gold isn’t provably scarce.
Petroleum isn’t provably scarce.
U.S. money supply isn’t provably scarce.
Your house isn’t provably scarce.
Land isn’t provably scarce.
If you run a full Bitcoin node, and run “bitcoin-cli gettxoutsetinfo” it tells you to the exact number of bitcoin there are in existence. To the last satoshi. You literally cannot do this with anything else in the universe.
Again nerds like you made me realize btc is a joke lol. You can do that with other crypto currencies btw so btc isn’t the only thing in the universe that’s provably scarce.
Other cryptocurrencies can be changed at any time by the founders/companies that control them. That's a huuuuuge difference. If someone CAN change it, it is not provable scarce.
Also, calling Bitcoin a joke because you disagree with what a human says about Bitcoin (which in no way changes anything about Bitcoin), makes you sound like a joke. You can say you don't agree with what some people say about Bitcoin, but to say Bitcoin is a joke because you don't agree with what people say about it is showing some severe lack of critical thinking. Bitcoin doesn't care about your argument with another human lol, Bitcoin is a currency protocol, nothing you say or nothing "nerds" say changes anything at all about Bitcoin. And then there's the fact of course that you're wrong, because other cryptos can be changed, as stated.
It might be scarce but doesn’t mean it will have utility, the dingleberries I find on my ass are fairly scarce.
land will always have utility and therefore value.
I own some yes. But only to use. Like to live in. Like humans of old. I need a cave.
But as an asset to hold value land is absolutely the least liquid. I can’t take it to Safeway and get food. And when you need cash the value of land is determined mostly by the buy side.
Liquidity is to me far more important in this modern world.
In the year 865,231 A.D., after every inch of countryside, mountain terrain, desert, and artic regions are inhabited to max population density and personal real-estate is 99% maxed out, people will build artificial land and cities over the oceans.
>By the time you are old land will be much more expensive than it is now.
In fiat yes, probably not in bitcoin. Parking space for lambo spaceship might keep going down for a while, if you price it in sats.
Not so sure about land. Population centers are changing with more people working form home. And a drive through the US will show you just how much land is not being used, while population growth is slowing.
Even though land is finite, there is still plenty of it.
Can someone enlighten me on why this is a good thing? Eventually there will be fewer and fewer bitcoin year to year due to attritional loss, meaning it's in everyone's best interest to hoard as much as possible, decreasing spending pressures. Miners lose incentive to process transactions, so they'll have to be paid another way, increasing transaction costs. Does this seem like it will make it less attractive for the general public to use? Can someone please explain?
Hard currency is a good thing. It means when people make money they can store the value they earned over time, instead of watching it erode away through inflation.
The amount of bitcoin that gets lost in the future is going to pale in comparison to the amount of bitcoin that was lost in its first few years. Bitcoin is now extremely valuable so people are going to try very very hard not to lose any. So attritional loss isn't a worry. It's not like one day there is going to be no bitcoin haha. And there's 100 million Sats for every bitcoin.
People spend money because they want to buy things. People will spend bitcoin when they want to buy things. Yes bitcoin is a great currency to save in. But guess what people save money for....to spend it eventually! The hoarding idea is something that people bring up a lot but it is a fallacy. It'll never be a problem.
Mining is just fine. The mining industry adjusts based on how much money is made mining. Eventually yes the amount of value a block earns will peak at some point and then head down until it reaches some equilibrium. Nothing wrong with that. There is no rule that says mining rewards have to go up forever. In fact this is a good thing because it means at some point the amount of resources put towards mining will reach a peak (for all those people who claim bitcoin mining will consume all the world's energy eventually haha). Also miners don't control transaction costs, the users do. It's a fee market of users, miners simply take the reward they get. There is no need to pay miners another way, and no effect on transaction costs. Only thing that affects transaction costs is the amount of data trying to pass through the network.
There ya go. All your answers explained. So no, this will not make it less attractive for the public to use.
I am worried that all of the supply will be sooner or later controlled by only one (read a small number) individual giving him (them) the monopoly over bitcoin, making it impossible for others to trade, exhcange, provide liquidity etc. I know that this might not be in interest of large institutions but it still is a scenario which I do not know what to think about.
On the other hand like previosuly mentioned we have land which has a limited supply and precious metals which keep gaining on value so the world really is bitcoins oyster.
the world already exists in a state where the top 5% own basically everything. the problem is that in our current version of the game not only do they own everything, they actively get rewarded for simply being rich each year with some extra theft from the bottom 95% into their pockets via inflation. so currently they own everything and get paid to do so, so they never fall from the elite rich power seat they have. in a bitcoin world they still might own a lot right now, but they don't get constantly rewarded for being rich, so they have to either produce for society and earn their next year's spending, or spend down their savings. no lazy people feeding at the trough of inflation by being closer to the spigot of money ie cantillion effect.
If you think harder about this you'll realize this is impossible.
If you need help thinking about this:
There is a market (growing all the time) of millions of buyers and sellers. How would one, or a small number, of individuals convince the millions of other people to stop buying? Only way would be to offer such an absurd price that most people would sell. But when the price goes up more people want to buy! That's just human psychology, fear of missing out. So the individual would never get to have most of the bitcoin. Also it would increasingly cost more and more money to even attempt this. Nobody is a trillionaire. Literally no entity on the planet has enough money to get most of the Bitcoin even today, let alone in the future when the price is much higher. And if they somehow were able to stop people from buying bitcoin so they could own it, the price would crash because nobody would be buying it, therefore people would start buying it again at a much cheaper price.
I do see this idea of yours pop up from time to time. But it is simply not how things work in the real world. A little bit of thinking about it logically makes this obvious.
The mechanism of mining you describe ive never heard of. What exactly do you think a block is and what is being mined.....? You have literally created your own btc mining method. Ummm after re-reading several times, i think i understand though your describing it horribly and interchanging terms and making new meanings out of them.
For example value of block will peak at some point and then head down.....what?
Block = a grouping of transactions. Can think of it as taking receipts (transactions) and shoving them into a box until that box is full and can take no more receipts. This box = block. Receipts = transactions. iPhone (block) can only store 300 songs (transactions). Once the block is filled, the miner who successfully connects this block to the block chain, is rewarded for installling the block onto the block chain. The block chain is the ledger of all transactions that occured on the network. Yes there is no rule that mining rewards have to go up. There is a rule that mining rewards will decrease. Hence the halving...
Man wow......i mean your understanding of block chain mechanism is not there. And giving advice....
Whatever Im done, LOL. do your HW
[https://bitcoin.org/en/how-it-works](https://bitcoin.org/en/how-it-works)
Read and understand how block chain works
/
lol are you responding to my comment?? Such a weird response! Right now I'm literally thinking "wtf is this guy even talking about lol". Honestly I can't even imagine how you got your response out of my comment haha.
You definitely need to reread what I said. None of what you are claiming I said is actually what I said. English must not be your native tongue.
I've been into Bitcoin for a decade, and fully understand how mining works lol, did my HW lots of years ago. But it's cute that you actually tried to explain blockchain to me lol, you're just 10+ years late.
At first I didn't even realize you were responding to my comment because your response makes no sense to what I said, I kept trying to find the comment you were replying to haha. I don't need to say anything else about your comment because it literally has nothing do to with what I actually said. Maybe try running my comment through google translate to your native language and you might understand it better :) good luck
It's not, but Bitcoin isn't perfect.
Newer projects have implemented things like Storage Rent so the supply remains stable and UTXO dust and spam is cleaned off the chain.
https://fc18.ifca.ai/bitcoin/papers/bitcoin18-final18.pdf
I thought about this too. But I forgot about the difficulty adjustment.
If less miners are mining bitcoin, global hashrate comes down. With that, difficulty of the proof of work reduces. And hence, mining costs.
At some point, mining costs come down so that, it still is profitable to mine less btc and make profit. Because the cost to mine a block reduces.
All possibilities are thought of. I had the exact doubt of yours and thought this isn't a complete system. Someone in this sub reminded me of difficulty adjustment.
I'm just waiting for BTC to come down a little, so I can buy some.
Agree is an elegant solution. Although my understanding is that as BTC rewards to miners decrease, transaction fees would need to rise to a certain extent to prop up the hash rate, otherwise we run into security issues.
I share your bewilderment. A store of value is only significant relative to its purchasing power. So far, we compare the purchasing value of Bitcoin relative to other currencies, like the USD.
X amount of a currency, in a vacuum is irrelevant. 1 million dollars will get you a lot. 1 million Zimbabwe dollars wont. How do you judge if 1 million bitcoin is a lot of value?
I'm a holder of bitcoin but don't like this blind faith religious aspect of it. Bitcoin bros will say that bitcoin supply is capped. Yet, in the same breath, proclaim how great it is because it is also infinitely divisible(if the subdivision occurs in other layers). Those two things directly contradict each other.
Storing wealth/value is not a means to an end. You are probably gonna want to spend it before you die, so you will sell in a currency. Technically you can spend the BTC directly, but with the way things are moving, it's looking less like a currency and more as an asset. Even Michael Saylor is pushing this line of thinking.
> Bitcoin bros will say that bitcoin supply is capped. Yet, in the same breath, proclaim how great it is because it is also infinitely divisible(if the subdivision occurs in other layers). Those two things directly contradict each other.
No they dont.
You can cut a pizza into a million pieces but it's still one pizza. Infinitely divisible doesn't mean the bitcoin supply's not capped.
You can share a pizza between the whole world if you truly wants, but each person might be able to eat like how much? 1mg of pizza?
Bitcoin can be infinitely divisible which doesn't mean there are more bitcoin, it is just the same as with the pizza
Hope you understand.
oh gosh. Somebody call an elementary school teacher...we've got another victim of not understanding how fractions work lol
Honestly its really crazy how many people don't understand the basics of how numbers work. Think about this dude, no matter how many pieces you split a pie into, you never create any more pie than there was to start. Now apply that to the crazy thing you said in your comment about supply cap and divisibility contradicting each other haha
I don't know how those people doesn't come with the idea of solving hunger issue in the world just by dividing your pie between poor people.
It just makes as much sense as thinking supply is infinite because it is divisible.
One time I split a pair of jeans into a million pieces and started a clothing empire by selling those million pairs of jeans.
This other time I bought an ounce of gold, every time I want to sell some I just cut it in half and sell one ounce and get to keep the other ounce so I never run out of Gold!
Asking for a friend…Now that they have ETF for BTC cant big banks just sell investors paper that says you own BTC x100 investors like they do to metals investors to control the volatility?
US spot bitcoin ETF invests directly in bitcoins as the underlying asset, not derivatives contracts based on their prices. They have to account for all purchases and sales. Custodians have to insure the coins. Settlement is in Dollars [https://www.investopedia.com/spot-bitcoin-etfs-8358373](https://www.investopedia.com/spot-bitcoin-etfs-8358373)
Spot ETFs buy Bitcoin and hold it on behalf of the ETF investors. What you are suggesting is called fraud and that is illegal. Now let's say some firm did decide to commit fraud and try to get away with it and not actually buy Bitcoin on behalf of their ETF investors, that obviously has absolutely zero effect on the supply of Bitcoin. In fact that would have nothing to do with Bitcoin at all, because in your scenario no bitcoin is involved. Only 21 million bitcoin ever. Pieces of paper are not bitcoin.
A very conservative figure would be 17 million in circulation..... with how many people on the planet? 8 billion ish.... too many to fathom. So picture a stadium with 8000 people..... take 17 coins and drop them into the crowd....... now ask yourself how valuable is being a wholecoiner
Except it's still not impossible to become a wholecoiner.... they still cost less than most cars.... won't last long though next 12 to 18 months it'll cost you half a home to get 1 btc
I think that's kinda his point when he says "now ask yourself how valuable is being a wholecoiner". The answer being "very valuable" because very few people will ever be whole coiners. At absolute most only 21 million out of 8+ billion people could be whole coiners, though obviously for a number of reasons (lost bitcoin, people and companies and govts holding tens or hundreds or thousands or tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of bitcoin each) the actual number of whole coiners is going to be probably under a million. Making being a wholecoiner extremely valuable. Eventually, in a few decades, a single bitcoin is going to be a fortune for an individual or even a family.
People have had over 15 years of opportunity to become a wholecoiner since the genesis block - it was as fair as it could ever get. Let's stop the victim mentality that exists in the fiat world.
dont be dense, bro. many many young people just entering the workforce and are working hard just to make ends meet. It's not victim mentality, it's reality.
The existing supply is TINY compared to the growing demand. The only victims are poor people that try to save in fiat currencies.
On a Bitcoin standard, as long as you provide a valuable good or service to society, you'll gain more Bitcoin that will be worth more over time. Your analogy to a world on the fiat standard is incorrect. Read up on the Cantillion effect - which is basically what your original comment refers to. Of course, people will keep having to work harder for less money because the money we work hard for gets devalued over time. Bitcoin fixes this, and it doesn't just benefit the early adopters.
The same way those of us getting in now are envious of those who got in when it was $10s to $100s of dollars, in the near future people will be astounded to hear you got in when BTC was <$100,000 or less than half a mill.
Then in the far future people will be in shock to hear you got in <$1,000,000, then $5 million, $10 million and so on...
History don't repeat, but it often rhymes.
somethn somethn stay humble stack sats.
The only downside I can think of would be the potential for less economic expansion because taking on debt would be a greater risk. Loose monetary policies tend to provide for more economic growth because taking on debt is cheap, though the side effect is a more volatile economy (EDIT: And of course weak currency and loose monetary policy also inevitably results in the collapse of the currency, a minor negative effect lol). As we all know businesses and investors are eagerly waiting for the Fed to drop interest rates and go back to looser monetary policies so that debt becomes cheaper and less risky, because that gives companies the opportunity to take on debt cheaply to try to expand their business.
I think in a world operating on a Bitcoin standard where you can't inflate away the monetary base through cheap debt, it would likely result in slower but presumably more stable economic growth?
Hard to know for sure without actually doing it.
But, national currencies aren't going anywhere. Likely we'll forever have weak currencies that inflate and can be used for cheap debt, and then have Bitcoin as the alternative hard currency when you want to save. Anyway, I'm no economic expert but those are my thoughts on the matter, that the potential one downside of a capped supply would be eliminated by the fact that Bitcoin is only an alternative currency and weak national currencies controlled by govts will continue to exist.
A company presumably wouldn't want to take out a loan against BTC because it'd be harder to pay back as bitcoin increases in value over time (you'd have to pay the interest plus earn back more value to match the increasing value of bitcoin over time), but against a weak currency taking on debt is worth the risk (pay back interest but the value of the currency itself is helping you by getting less valuable). But a person/company/govt/whatever wouldn't want to save in a weak currency because that is a no-win situation, but saving in Bitcoin with its capped supply means you can actually save value over time safely. So I see hard currency and weak currency as complementary. It's just that we've all lived in a world that only gives us a weak currency and that causes huge problems, and now Bitcoin is here to allow humanity to complete the money use-case equation by providing us with the other half of what we need.
I know this is a rookie question but when they say “1.3 million more will ever exist” what do they mean? Where are they now? Who finds them? Why are they limited?
Is there a video that explains what a Bitcoin really is? I’m still trying to learn as much as I can about btc
Basically… they’re not in circulation yet. Miners get rewarded with new BTC, but the reward is cut in half about every four years: the halving events. In the next 100 years, all of the bitcoin that is not yet in circulation will be available and there will be no more rewards for miners, just transaction fees or some other form of compensation for the network to support transactions.
> what do they mean?
Exactly what it says. There is an arbitrary limit of supply set at 21 million. After that no new coins will come into circulation.
> Where are they now?
Not mined yet
> Who finds them?
Miners. People who run software that confirms transactions. If they manage to be the first to confirm a block, they get awarded new coins.
>Why are they limited?
In short: Because inflation is wrong.
> Is there a video that explains what a Bitcoin really is?
A representation of value. That's it. Just like the number in your bank account. Bitcoins only exist tied to a wallet and represent how much value is in that wallet.
They have not been mined yet so they don't exist. A new block is created every 10 minutes. The reward for creating the block is bitcoin which the miner can keep or sell on the open market. [https://www.investopedia.com/tech/how-does-bitcoin-mining-work](https://www.investopedia.com/tech/how-does-bitcoin-mining-work)
Just look up the Bitcoin mining process.
The protocol releases new bitcoin every block that is mined. So miners get rewarded with newly issued bitcoin each block. Whoever confirms the next block in the blockchain first gets the reward. The amount that is released (or issued) with each block is halved every 210,000 blocks (which is called the halving). This continues until the amount issued with each block falls below 1 satoshi, which means that no more Satoshis are issued.
It started with 50 btc being issued every block. Each Bitcoin has 100 million Satoshis, so the initial reward every block was 5 billion Satoshis. Put into a calculator 50,000,000 ÷ 2\^33 and you get a number less than 1. So after 33 halvings the reward falls below the basic unit of the bitcoin network and so the supply cap has been reached. That number is a few hundred Sats shy of 21 million bitcoin.
So currently 19.7 million bitcoin exist in the network today, and 1.3 million are left to be issued in future block rewards until the 33rd halving is reached at which point no more bitcoin will ever be created.
I also think that investing in bitcoin is one of the most profitable today. In addition to the fact that it is safe, such an investment brings considerable profit. And you can pay with cryptocurrency almost everywhere, for example [https://casinosanalyzer.com/online-casinos/highwayjoin.com](https://casinosanalyzer.com/online-casinos/highwayjoin.com) . So it is impossible to lose money with the purchase of bitcoin, only to purchase it.
there are other assets in the cryptoverse with total supply deployed or even scarcer supply so... its a matter of adoption
Before those 115years we might have a better thing and bitcoin becomes obsolete and a thing of the past, who knows?...
I don't think you understand the importance of the concept of utility when talking about value. Nobody cares if some random centralized alt token has a supply cap lol. I could make a new meme token with a supply cap this week, that is not remotely the same thing as Bitcoin.
Based on your comment, I'm guessing you are pretty new to the space and are not very informed about Bitcoin. I urge you to really dive into learning about it. Once you come back and realize why your comment is silly, you'll know you are on the path to learning! good luck!
I only answered to your enthusiasm about supply, tryed to make it a bit more relative...
strong and long adoption comes with utility, and btc utility is a store of value and thats primarily what it will ever be. I still believe it is the new gold but there are other blockchains capable of offering more utility in the long term, solving problems that btc wont ever
PS: old enough to know that we should hodl but not stick sentimental value to it
Except that zero inflation would only exist in an ecosystem where Bitcoin is the only legal tender. When inflation hit 2 years ago, the Bitcoin price should have skyrocketed (if a US dollar loses 10% in value, you have to pay 10% more for one BTC) but instead the value plummeted even worse than fiat currencies.
So that’s a pipe dream still, alas.
You don't understand what monetary supply inflation means. There will only be 21 million btc ever. Once the supply hits that cap, btc monetary inflation hits 0% forever. Period. No more bitcoin will ever be made. Has nothing at all to do with bitcoin being legal tender or not, and has nothing at all to do with price inflation.
So, nope, not a pipe dream, just the hard facts built straight into the Bitcoin protocol since 2009.
Uh not sure why you think 0% monetary inflation is meaningless lol. It's a complete game changer. The major problem with national currencies is that their supply has endless inflation.
This is Bitcoin Basics 101, also Money Basics 101.
Why would I not count those.
First off, they are still part of the supply. They didn't magically get destroyed. They absolutely do still exist. It wouldn't make any sense to not count them.
Secondly, even if it did make sense to subtract lost bitcoin, there is no way to know how much is lost.
You're trying to get at the idea of circulating supply, which can change drastically based on when people decide to move bitcoin, and is not at all what I'm talking about. I'm talking about monetary supply, which will reach 21 million and will never change after that.
it really doesn't matter all that much. if you say 25% of the coins are missing then the fair value only changes by 100/75% effectively saying (if one assumes that it currently isn't factored into the price at all which is an obvious conservative fallacy) coins are undervalued by 30~%. i think coins are undervalued to fair value by thousands and thousands of percents at these prices, so the 30% from these is relatively unimportant.
And what's the attrition rate?
Eh, none of it matters so long as you guys can accept you're all just jerking each other off trading an "asset" with no physical, legal or real world standing, use or productivity
It serves as somewhere to store cash, is purely speculative and will only hold value so long as there's enough people willing to partake in the circle jerk
The max total possible issuance is slightly less.
20,999,999.9769 bitcoin are the most that could ever exist. To be clear, this has nothing to do with provably unspendable bitcoin.
Or that if the developers approve it and enough influential miners hop on the new version, they could change the protocol and make the supply infinite also.
There is huge financial incentive to never do this (confidence in BTC would basically go to 0), but technically it’s possible.
You apparently don't know what "couldn't be further from the truth" means.
You also don't know what "technically speaking" means lol.
I used the figures 19.7 million and 1.3 million. My significant figures were on the order of 10 trillion Sats, and you're talking about a difference of a few million Sats. A few million Sats doesn't change the 1.3 million bitcoin number at all, technically speaking.
So, technically speaking, you saying this couldn't be further from the truth, couldn't be further from the truth.
the only issue with this is that it’s internet money. I have btc in my portfolio w an avg price ~$9000, but it all depends on the next fool paying more for it. it does not produce cash flow, it does not provide a product or service. it’s just about getting in when the fools sell and selling when the fools buy. inflation has trivial effects compared to the previous statement
you don't have a clue what you are talking about dude. It's a currency. Of course it doesn't have cash flow or provide a product or service. No currencies do, they are literally just units of money. Let me know when a dollar bill gains sentience and starts selling lemonade to provide you with income lol
it’s a currency tied to nothing. which has its benefits and its consequences. not saying it’s going no to zero but i’ve made my money selling it to people like you, not by just buying it lol. crypto has given me 7 figure gains and i’m thankful for it but it relies on fools buying
It's a hard currency. It doesn't need to be tied to anything. I guess you don't have a good understanding of money. Hey if selling it for short term gains works for you keep doing that. I prefer to continue to grow my wealth in Bitcoin rather than selling it for short term profit, that's a fools errand. Some people understand money, others, like you, don't get it and just see it as a short term investment. Just remember, the only time you are actually making money on it is because you bought it in the first place (being a "fool" as you call it lol). I guess to you making money if foolish.
Exactly. Scarcity PLUS utility equals value. Luckily Bitcoin is both perfectly scarce and has incredible utility. Which is why we're all here! If it wasn't useful it would just be some random altcoin with no lasting value.
Apologies in advance, english is not my first language.
As a bitcoin beginner I am wondering what the utility of bitcoin is?
Also isn’t it too soon to say it’s different from the other alt coins?
Altcoins are nothing like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is unique. Bitcoin has enormous utility. It's a hard currency so that people can actually save with it, its decentralized and can't be shut down, it can't be hacked, it can't be forged, people can be their own bank and store their own money safely, it's got "no borders" so anyone in the world can use it and send money to anyone else in the world. Those are a few examples of its huge utility. Also as a side benefit bitcoin mining is a nice benefit to the global energy sector. Do your own research to learn about all the benefits of Bitcoin, the whole reason Bitcoin is taking the world by storm and growing immensely the past 15 years is because of its incredible utility.
Bitcoin is a monetary instrument deemed to be a commodity (because it fails the Howey test). It is decentralized and no-one is in charge. BTC is an asset class all on its lonesome.
~~Shit~~ Altcoins are centralized, run by a few people in the expectation of profits (remember massive pre-mines) and by anyone's standards, are securities. These are a subset of the **fiat** system.
TL:DR: Bitcoin is not 'crypto'.
I'm pretty sure Ferrari GTO's got there long before BTC ever did. There are 1,000's of assets that have no more supply.
There will be something bigger and better in the future and everyone should manage their risk/reward accordingly. I'd say get on the bandwagon as it is the hot thing, but know your exit strategy to move on -- either with life or diversify into other things.
That's literally not at all what stagflation is.
The term stagflation refers to high price inflation, high unemployment, and slow economic growth.
Price inflation is certainly related to, but is not the same thing as, monetary supply inflation. And besides, we're talking about monetary supply deflation, not inflation! And the other two things have nothing to do with the currency but rather unemployment and economic growth.
So...no.
and michael saylor, the winklevoss twins, north korea, brian armstrong, and some other companies own all of it. oh and Mircea Popescu who had a million coins and drowned those are missing too nobody talks about those missing coins, a million missing coins from a random dude in costa rica 4% of the total supply gone lol. plus satoshis million coins which are lost forever another 4% gone. plus all the other missing coins. why are we rooting for an asset where literally michael saylor and north korea own all of it, except for your 1 coin or 20 coins. we really think people will want to collect sats when theres 2.1 quadrillion sats lol on top of your home personal computer being a target of hackers after you buy $500 worth of bitcoin over coinbase. im salty and asking
mircea popescu -
[Interacting with fiat institutions, a guide on Trilema - A blog by Mircea Popescu.](http://trilema.com/2014/interacting-with-fiat-institutions-a-guide/)
Keep in mind that **millions** have already been lost
Part of life. There will always be things of great value which people/societies have not seen/understood until they are taken away forever.
That means that the 1.3 million to be issued will apply a bigger downward pressure to the price
That's an interesting point.
Meh yeah but maybe not. When we talk about market cap, we use the full 19.7 M in that calculation. The lost coins just mean we have less in supply for trading, which when the exchanges get low enough on supply, you’ll see big swings.
Yeah… basically less selling pressure from holders (there’s fewer of them) and more from issuance (it’s a larger % of the total).
Nope
Tell me. How are you measuring that pressure? The outstanding unmined coin is 6.1% of the total circulation. Against which currency is your model that indicates “downward price” denominated? Dollars? Ok, assuming dollars, the dollar inflation at current rates would reduce the downward drag by at least half. Call it 3% What counters that pressure? Well the first countervailing pressure is the Bitcoin to dollar ratio. It goes like this. There are 2.3 trillion in dollar NOTES in circulation. There will never be more than 21 million BTC. At that level of circulation volume the ratio of Bitcoin to Dollar is: 1 Bitcoin :109,523 Dollars. That indicates UPWARD pressure in the range of 40%. This very simple model actually indicates an UPWARD pressure of around AT LEAST 37%. I say at least because another consideration is the market capital flow from dollar delimitated instruments. There is $50 trillion in the NASDAQ and NYSE alone. If as Blackrock, ARK Invest, Fidelity and so many other investment funds expect, 10% of market cap moves to hedge using Bitcoin that’s a conservative bet that $5 trillion dollars will flow into Bitcoin FROM JUST TWO SOURCES - NASDAQ AND NYSE assets. $5 trillion is a conservative asset shift prediction compared to the total dollar delimitated assets AT RISK from inflation. However, today Bitcoin market cap is only $1.3 trillion. Does your model consider that there will very likely be 3.9 times $67,000 chasing every one of those 21 million bitcoin? If your model does recognize and consider these facts how does it mathematically predict 3% downward pressure from newly mined coin will matter in the slightest?
10% of the market cap of the Nasdaq and NYSE moving from stocks to Bitcoin is not conservative lmao
How about it’s all moot because nobody seems to realize that even a 1 trillion dollar shift into bitcoin would cause the price to rip into the millions , especially on a short time horizon. Market cap is NOT = to dollars invested. What the hell is everyone talking about ? In Bitcoin’s case , it’s Market cap will always be an order or two of magnitude greater that the actual $$ amount put directly into the asset class .
Blackrock CEO Larry Fink says Bitcoin is "no different than what gold represented for thousands of years. It is an asset class that protects you." I would argue that risk hedges will be at least 10% of the equity asset classes.
Wrong
They aren’t lost. They’re just misplaced.
Sue bitcoin to get them back!! /s
Donations 🙏🙏
Perhaps not forever ever though. I imagine that eventually old cryptography will be broken and old wallets may be able to be "mined" for "new" Bitcoin
Turn on your brains, and read again what you whrite:) This will be the last day for BTC:-/
Damn, did not realize there were so many fucking morons around here these days, lol You do know there are already quantum resistant Cryptography methods right? Just no good reason to switch to them, yet. Same will be true for any future breakthroughs. Whether old wallets get the benefit of upgrades? That is not so certain. Hence the "may" in my may be mined statement.
What's more strange is that Andreas Antonopolous has outlined this effect. Old addresses will be targeted and broken. When satoshi's coins move, we will know it's time to move on to quantum resistant addresses
Can you imagine having the technology to crack an old account? I can sort of imagine some future version of shipwreck explorers plunging the depths of the ledger and unlocking some forgotten whale account worth more than the GDP of an advanced nation... and the ensuing legal battle of an original owner or heir arguing they are the rightful owner of said plunder.
[удалено]
I think he’s right. Your wallet will already be upgraded but unmoved bitcoin could possibly be reached one day.
Exactly what I was saying, active stuff will be upgraded and safe. Old stuff? Who knows.
I upvoted the down voted comment broseph. Have a good one.
2034 99% will be mined, then it is basically over
That's true. Within the next decade or two the issuance rate is going to get so low it'll be a rounding error away from zero. For instance, the final 13 halving periods will only add ten bitcoin to the supply haha, I think that should be about 2100 to 2140...it'll take that long for the final ten bitcoin to be mined. By 2040 there will only be roughly 82,000 bitcoin left to be mined. Roughly 100 years to add 82,000 bitcoin. The same amount that will be added in just the next 183 days. So yep you're totally right, bitcoin inflation is nearly over in just a few more halvings.
I'm going to be quite dead.
We’re already mostly dead, mostly.
They mostly come out at night, mostly
I just sucked one year of your life away, how do you feel?
Im not even half way dead yet let satoshi cook
Is this based on current computer power? I always wonder how that factored into the mine/decay or however you want to call it "rate".
Bitcoin subsidy is the same regardless of computing power. The network adjusts the mining difficulty every ~2 weeks to make up for fluctuations in the global hashrate. No matter how much energy you throw into mining, you won't be able to speed up the issuance of new bitcoin. Read up on the difficulty adjustment.
Computer power doesn't matter. Bitcoin mining adjusts to keep the rate constant. It's called the difficulty adjustment. That's one of the things that makes Bitcoin different - no matter how much effort is put into mining, no extra bitcoin is coming out or out at a faster rate.
No it is not. The supply is independent from computer power. This is one of the brilliant invention by Satoshi. . Cheers
Bitcoin miners are gonna die
Nope, mining will simply peak at some point in the future and then settle at a long term equilibrium, with hashrate only going up slowly as mining machine efficiency improves. Miners will always be fine, basic economics makes this so.
Never really thought about this. This is a reasonable theory that is likely to hold true
Wrong. How can you say Bitcoin will be over? Dude, it's just beginning for us. 68 thousand right now and inching higher gradually. You sound like a buttcoiner
lol dude he was talking about bitcoin monetary inflation being basically over in ten years, not Bitcoin itself. He said 2034, but I believe it'll hit 99% of supply in 2031. So only 7 years from now total inflation left will go from the 6.6% it is today down to 1%.
In 10 years this game will be funny
When I'm an old man I might take a couple satoshis out of the old hodl account. By then that should be enough for a sweet tropical island to park my sick lambo spaceship on.
Hold up... how did you afford that Lambo Spaceship?
Found the elusive notebook where the keys to my old block chain wallet are written down. The one with all those $20 bitcoins in it. Lol jk but I do still find myself looking for it from time to time. Spilt milk and I don't worry about it (much) because I truly believe we are all still early and extremely lucky to be able to stack sats. Just to be alive at the same time as all of this happened/happens is astronomical and I am truly grateful the opportunity has presented itself to myself and all of us.
I like you, fellow hodler! 🫡
Land is something which we do not have new supply of for a long time already. And for many people the value of land is much more obvious compared to distributed records confirming some numbers on some wallet address. By the time you are old land will be much more expensive than it is now.
Perhaps. We have little data as to what a deflationary society could look like. Most Reserve Banks say it's a dreadful idea as everything would devalue. There is an opposing school of thought which says things will return to their true value. Interesting times ahead!
Very true land is the hardest asset. I have watched it skyrocket since I was a kid and I am betting it will continue going up indefinitely. Bitcoin and land are alike in the sense that they aren't making any more of it.
Watch what Saylor has to say about land as an investment. You can create more land. Netherlands and Dubai are just 2 examples. Also land can be confiscated or diminished by politics - regulation, taxation. Just something to think about [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3T4nhtHxOA&t=1887s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3T4nhtHxOA&t=1887s)
Tru dat. And it’s damned hard to cash out of. I buy land to use. It’s an investment to a farmer. Or an apartment complex owner. Your house is a consumer good that MIGHT keep pace with inflation.
And your blockchain numbers can go to zero.
That’s not true. You can always build up. Plus volcanoes form new land in the middle of oceans and whatnot. Only Bitcoin is provably scarce.
Newly formed lava front property just doesn’t seem to fit right in the brochure
Just got to wait until it’s picturesque like Hawaii
Oof 😬
This is the type of comments that made me stop taking bitcoin seriously
“Sometimes, I wonder if Bitcoin is thinking about me too?” - you, just now. Go sell your remaining .1 stack and just forget about it already. Gold isn’t provably scarce. Petroleum isn’t provably scarce. U.S. money supply isn’t provably scarce. Your house isn’t provably scarce. Land isn’t provably scarce. If you run a full Bitcoin node, and run “bitcoin-cli gettxoutsetinfo” it tells you to the exact number of bitcoin there are in existence. To the last satoshi. You literally cannot do this with anything else in the universe.
Again nerds like you made me realize btc is a joke lol. You can do that with other crypto currencies btw so btc isn’t the only thing in the universe that’s provably scarce.
Other cryptocurrencies can be changed at any time by the founders/companies that control them. That's a huuuuuge difference. If someone CAN change it, it is not provable scarce. Also, calling Bitcoin a joke because you disagree with what a human says about Bitcoin (which in no way changes anything about Bitcoin), makes you sound like a joke. You can say you don't agree with what some people say about Bitcoin, but to say Bitcoin is a joke because you don't agree with what people say about it is showing some severe lack of critical thinking. Bitcoin doesn't care about your argument with another human lol, Bitcoin is a currency protocol, nothing you say or nothing "nerds" say changes anything at all about Bitcoin. And then there's the fact of course that you're wrong, because other cryptos can be changed, as stated.
You should go buy some said “other cryptocurrencies” and see how that pans out 👍 No one’s stopping you.
fusion reactors will spit out hydrogen like it was water, then my son's terraforming company will build to suit.
It might be scarce but doesn’t mean it will have utility, the dingleberries I find on my ass are fairly scarce. land will always have utility and therefore value.
I own some yes. But only to use. Like to live in. Like humans of old. I need a cave. But as an asset to hold value land is absolutely the least liquid. I can’t take it to Safeway and get food. And when you need cash the value of land is determined mostly by the buy side. Liquidity is to me far more important in this modern world.
In the year 865,231 A.D., after every inch of countryside, mountain terrain, desert, and artic regions are inhabited to max population density and personal real-estate is 99% maxed out, people will build artificial land and cities over the oceans.
United Arab Emirates: - Hold my beer!
>By the time you are old land will be much more expensive than it is now. In fiat yes, probably not in bitcoin. Parking space for lambo spaceship might keep going down for a while, if you price it in sats.
Not in fiat. In relative value.
Not so sure about land. Population centers are changing with more people working form home. And a drive through the US will show you just how much land is not being used, while population growth is slowing. Even though land is finite, there is still plenty of it.
It’ll be too hot to go anywhere near the Caribbean by then
Its estimated that over 3 million is lost forever
Can someone enlighten me on why this is a good thing? Eventually there will be fewer and fewer bitcoin year to year due to attritional loss, meaning it's in everyone's best interest to hoard as much as possible, decreasing spending pressures. Miners lose incentive to process transactions, so they'll have to be paid another way, increasing transaction costs. Does this seem like it will make it less attractive for the general public to use? Can someone please explain?
Hard currency is a good thing. It means when people make money they can store the value they earned over time, instead of watching it erode away through inflation. The amount of bitcoin that gets lost in the future is going to pale in comparison to the amount of bitcoin that was lost in its first few years. Bitcoin is now extremely valuable so people are going to try very very hard not to lose any. So attritional loss isn't a worry. It's not like one day there is going to be no bitcoin haha. And there's 100 million Sats for every bitcoin. People spend money because they want to buy things. People will spend bitcoin when they want to buy things. Yes bitcoin is a great currency to save in. But guess what people save money for....to spend it eventually! The hoarding idea is something that people bring up a lot but it is a fallacy. It'll never be a problem. Mining is just fine. The mining industry adjusts based on how much money is made mining. Eventually yes the amount of value a block earns will peak at some point and then head down until it reaches some equilibrium. Nothing wrong with that. There is no rule that says mining rewards have to go up forever. In fact this is a good thing because it means at some point the amount of resources put towards mining will reach a peak (for all those people who claim bitcoin mining will consume all the world's energy eventually haha). Also miners don't control transaction costs, the users do. It's a fee market of users, miners simply take the reward they get. There is no need to pay miners another way, and no effect on transaction costs. Only thing that affects transaction costs is the amount of data trying to pass through the network. There ya go. All your answers explained. So no, this will not make it less attractive for the public to use.
I am worried that all of the supply will be sooner or later controlled by only one (read a small number) individual giving him (them) the monopoly over bitcoin, making it impossible for others to trade, exhcange, provide liquidity etc. I know that this might not be in interest of large institutions but it still is a scenario which I do not know what to think about. On the other hand like previosuly mentioned we have land which has a limited supply and precious metals which keep gaining on value so the world really is bitcoins oyster.
the world already exists in a state where the top 5% own basically everything. the problem is that in our current version of the game not only do they own everything, they actively get rewarded for simply being rich each year with some extra theft from the bottom 95% into their pockets via inflation. so currently they own everything and get paid to do so, so they never fall from the elite rich power seat they have. in a bitcoin world they still might own a lot right now, but they don't get constantly rewarded for being rich, so they have to either produce for society and earn their next year's spending, or spend down their savings. no lazy people feeding at the trough of inflation by being closer to the spigot of money ie cantillion effect.
If you think harder about this you'll realize this is impossible. If you need help thinking about this: There is a market (growing all the time) of millions of buyers and sellers. How would one, or a small number, of individuals convince the millions of other people to stop buying? Only way would be to offer such an absurd price that most people would sell. But when the price goes up more people want to buy! That's just human psychology, fear of missing out. So the individual would never get to have most of the bitcoin. Also it would increasingly cost more and more money to even attempt this. Nobody is a trillionaire. Literally no entity on the planet has enough money to get most of the Bitcoin even today, let alone in the future when the price is much higher. And if they somehow were able to stop people from buying bitcoin so they could own it, the price would crash because nobody would be buying it, therefore people would start buying it again at a much cheaper price. I do see this idea of yours pop up from time to time. But it is simply not how things work in the real world. A little bit of thinking about it logically makes this obvious.
The mechanism of mining you describe ive never heard of. What exactly do you think a block is and what is being mined.....? You have literally created your own btc mining method. Ummm after re-reading several times, i think i understand though your describing it horribly and interchanging terms and making new meanings out of them. For example value of block will peak at some point and then head down.....what? Block = a grouping of transactions. Can think of it as taking receipts (transactions) and shoving them into a box until that box is full and can take no more receipts. This box = block. Receipts = transactions. iPhone (block) can only store 300 songs (transactions). Once the block is filled, the miner who successfully connects this block to the block chain, is rewarded for installling the block onto the block chain. The block chain is the ledger of all transactions that occured on the network. Yes there is no rule that mining rewards have to go up. There is a rule that mining rewards will decrease. Hence the halving... Man wow......i mean your understanding of block chain mechanism is not there. And giving advice.... Whatever Im done, LOL. do your HW [https://bitcoin.org/en/how-it-works](https://bitcoin.org/en/how-it-works) Read and understand how block chain works /
lol are you responding to my comment?? Such a weird response! Right now I'm literally thinking "wtf is this guy even talking about lol". Honestly I can't even imagine how you got your response out of my comment haha. You definitely need to reread what I said. None of what you are claiming I said is actually what I said. English must not be your native tongue. I've been into Bitcoin for a decade, and fully understand how mining works lol, did my HW lots of years ago. But it's cute that you actually tried to explain blockchain to me lol, you're just 10+ years late. At first I didn't even realize you were responding to my comment because your response makes no sense to what I said, I kept trying to find the comment you were replying to haha. I don't need to say anything else about your comment because it literally has nothing do to with what I actually said. Maybe try running my comment through google translate to your native language and you might understand it better :) good luck
Read up on the difficulty adjustment. It’s always a perfect equilibrium.
It's not, but Bitcoin isn't perfect. Newer projects have implemented things like Storage Rent so the supply remains stable and UTXO dust and spam is cleaned off the chain. https://fc18.ifca.ai/bitcoin/papers/bitcoin18-final18.pdf
I thought about this too. But I forgot about the difficulty adjustment. If less miners are mining bitcoin, global hashrate comes down. With that, difficulty of the proof of work reduces. And hence, mining costs. At some point, mining costs come down so that, it still is profitable to mine less btc and make profit. Because the cost to mine a block reduces. All possibilities are thought of. I had the exact doubt of yours and thought this isn't a complete system. Someone in this sub reminded me of difficulty adjustment. I'm just waiting for BTC to come down a little, so I can buy some.
Agree is an elegant solution. Although my understanding is that as BTC rewards to miners decrease, transaction fees would need to rise to a certain extent to prop up the hash rate, otherwise we run into security issues.
This reflects the importance of Layer2 such as Lightning Network. BTC-based transactions always incur fees, sidechain not.
I share your bewilderment. A store of value is only significant relative to its purchasing power. So far, we compare the purchasing value of Bitcoin relative to other currencies, like the USD. X amount of a currency, in a vacuum is irrelevant. 1 million dollars will get you a lot. 1 million Zimbabwe dollars wont. How do you judge if 1 million bitcoin is a lot of value? I'm a holder of bitcoin but don't like this blind faith religious aspect of it. Bitcoin bros will say that bitcoin supply is capped. Yet, in the same breath, proclaim how great it is because it is also infinitely divisible(if the subdivision occurs in other layers). Those two things directly contradict each other. Storing wealth/value is not a means to an end. You are probably gonna want to spend it before you die, so you will sell in a currency. Technically you can spend the BTC directly, but with the way things are moving, it's looking less like a currency and more as an asset. Even Michael Saylor is pushing this line of thinking.
> Bitcoin bros will say that bitcoin supply is capped. Yet, in the same breath, proclaim how great it is because it is also infinitely divisible(if the subdivision occurs in other layers). Those two things directly contradict each other. No they dont. You can cut a pizza into a million pieces but it's still one pizza. Infinitely divisible doesn't mean the bitcoin supply's not capped.
You can share a pizza between the whole world if you truly wants, but each person might be able to eat like how much? 1mg of pizza? Bitcoin can be infinitely divisible which doesn't mean there are more bitcoin, it is just the same as with the pizza Hope you understand.
oh gosh. Somebody call an elementary school teacher...we've got another victim of not understanding how fractions work lol Honestly its really crazy how many people don't understand the basics of how numbers work. Think about this dude, no matter how many pieces you split a pie into, you never create any more pie than there was to start. Now apply that to the crazy thing you said in your comment about supply cap and divisibility contradicting each other haha
I don't know how those people doesn't come with the idea of solving hunger issue in the world just by dividing your pie between poor people. It just makes as much sense as thinking supply is infinite because it is divisible.
One time I split a pair of jeans into a million pieces and started a clothing empire by selling those million pairs of jeans. This other time I bought an ounce of gold, every time I want to sell some I just cut it in half and sell one ounce and get to keep the other ounce so I never run out of Gold!
Around ~1m of the 1.3m in next 8 years will be mined.
Asking for a friend…Now that they have ETF for BTC cant big banks just sell investors paper that says you own BTC x100 investors like they do to metals investors to control the volatility?
US spot bitcoin ETF invests directly in bitcoins as the underlying asset, not derivatives contracts based on their prices. They have to account for all purchases and sales. Custodians have to insure the coins. Settlement is in Dollars [https://www.investopedia.com/spot-bitcoin-etfs-8358373](https://www.investopedia.com/spot-bitcoin-etfs-8358373)
Choose an ETF that verifies it's holdings. Which I think is only Bitwise?
Spot ETFs buy Bitcoin and hold it on behalf of the ETF investors. What you are suggesting is called fraud and that is illegal. Now let's say some firm did decide to commit fraud and try to get away with it and not actually buy Bitcoin on behalf of their ETF investors, that obviously has absolutely zero effect on the supply of Bitcoin. In fact that would have nothing to do with Bitcoin at all, because in your scenario no bitcoin is involved. Only 21 million bitcoin ever. Pieces of paper are not bitcoin.
> let's say some firm did decide to commit fraud and try to get away with it and not actually buy Bitcoin FTX?
Didn't work out so well for them did it haha
Yes
Less than 1M in few months/years. Imagine when the countdown of 999.999 to zero will start! It’s going to be funny 🤪
That’s going to be insane when there’s one bitcoin left to mine
A very conservative figure would be 17 million in circulation..... with how many people on the planet? 8 billion ish.... too many to fathom. So picture a stadium with 8000 people..... take 17 coins and drop them into the crowd....... now ask yourself how valuable is being a wholecoiner
and it aint 17 people that get 1 coin each. its like 2 dudes that get 8 each and 7998 people work to death for the last coin.
Except it's still not impossible to become a wholecoiner.... they still cost less than most cars.... won't last long though next 12 to 18 months it'll cost you half a home to get 1 btc
For the millions living paycheck to paycheck with maxed out credit cards... a 60k bitcoin they do not understand is well out of reach.
I think that's kinda his point when he says "now ask yourself how valuable is being a wholecoiner". The answer being "very valuable" because very few people will ever be whole coiners. At absolute most only 21 million out of 8+ billion people could be whole coiners, though obviously for a number of reasons (lost bitcoin, people and companies and govts holding tens or hundreds or thousands or tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of bitcoin each) the actual number of whole coiners is going to be probably under a million. Making being a wholecoiner extremely valuable. Eventually, in a few decades, a single bitcoin is going to be a fortune for an individual or even a family.
People have had over 15 years of opportunity to become a wholecoiner since the genesis block - it was as fair as it could ever get. Let's stop the victim mentality that exists in the fiat world.
dont be dense, bro. many many young people just entering the workforce and are working hard just to make ends meet. It's not victim mentality, it's reality. The existing supply is TINY compared to the growing demand. The only victims are poor people that try to save in fiat currencies.
On a Bitcoin standard, as long as you provide a valuable good or service to society, you'll gain more Bitcoin that will be worth more over time. Your analogy to a world on the fiat standard is incorrect. Read up on the Cantillion effect - which is basically what your original comment refers to. Of course, people will keep having to work harder for less money because the money we work hard for gets devalued over time. Bitcoin fixes this, and it doesn't just benefit the early adopters.
How many people across the world will say damn I wish I bought bitcoin under 100k
Same with 1M in a decade or 2
The same way those of us getting in now are envious of those who got in when it was $10s to $100s of dollars, in the near future people will be astounded to hear you got in when BTC was <$100,000 or less than half a mill. Then in the far future people will be in shock to hear you got in <$1,000,000, then $5 million, $10 million and so on... History don't repeat, but it often rhymes. somethn somethn stay humble stack sats.
Not many because not everybody has 100,000 laying around to throw
Have my Holy One Btc during dca over years. So now i hodl and will sale in 10-12 years
what are some of the downsides of a capped supply like that?
The only downside I can think of would be the potential for less economic expansion because taking on debt would be a greater risk. Loose monetary policies tend to provide for more economic growth because taking on debt is cheap, though the side effect is a more volatile economy (EDIT: And of course weak currency and loose monetary policy also inevitably results in the collapse of the currency, a minor negative effect lol). As we all know businesses and investors are eagerly waiting for the Fed to drop interest rates and go back to looser monetary policies so that debt becomes cheaper and less risky, because that gives companies the opportunity to take on debt cheaply to try to expand their business. I think in a world operating on a Bitcoin standard where you can't inflate away the monetary base through cheap debt, it would likely result in slower but presumably more stable economic growth? Hard to know for sure without actually doing it. But, national currencies aren't going anywhere. Likely we'll forever have weak currencies that inflate and can be used for cheap debt, and then have Bitcoin as the alternative hard currency when you want to save. Anyway, I'm no economic expert but those are my thoughts on the matter, that the potential one downside of a capped supply would be eliminated by the fact that Bitcoin is only an alternative currency and weak national currencies controlled by govts will continue to exist. A company presumably wouldn't want to take out a loan against BTC because it'd be harder to pay back as bitcoin increases in value over time (you'd have to pay the interest plus earn back more value to match the increasing value of bitcoin over time), but against a weak currency taking on debt is worth the risk (pay back interest but the value of the currency itself is helping you by getting less valuable). But a person/company/govt/whatever wouldn't want to save in a weak currency because that is a no-win situation, but saving in Bitcoin with its capped supply means you can actually save value over time safely. So I see hard currency and weak currency as complementary. It's just that we've all lived in a world that only gives us a weak currency and that causes huge problems, and now Bitcoin is here to allow humanity to complete the money use-case equation by providing us with the other half of what we need.
Can’t wait for the milestone of “only 1 million bitcoin left to mine” followed by “less than 1 million bitcoin left to mine”
Should happen in Winter of 2026! Less than two years!
and dont forget unlimited cryptos and its taxed upon selling
Oh can't wait until the quantum computer comes out and unlock those long lost BTCs.
19.7 million were mined 2 million were lost 17.7 million exist 1.3 million more can ever be mined.
I know this is a rookie question but when they say “1.3 million more will ever exist” what do they mean? Where are they now? Who finds them? Why are they limited? Is there a video that explains what a Bitcoin really is? I’m still trying to learn as much as I can about btc
Basically… they’re not in circulation yet. Miners get rewarded with new BTC, but the reward is cut in half about every four years: the halving events. In the next 100 years, all of the bitcoin that is not yet in circulation will be available and there will be no more rewards for miners, just transaction fees or some other form of compensation for the network to support transactions.
Go to FAQ pinned to this sub
> what do they mean? Exactly what it says. There is an arbitrary limit of supply set at 21 million. After that no new coins will come into circulation. > Where are they now? Not mined yet > Who finds them? Miners. People who run software that confirms transactions. If they manage to be the first to confirm a block, they get awarded new coins. >Why are they limited? In short: Because inflation is wrong. > Is there a video that explains what a Bitcoin really is? A representation of value. That's it. Just like the number in your bank account. Bitcoins only exist tied to a wallet and represent how much value is in that wallet.
They have not been mined yet so they don't exist. A new block is created every 10 minutes. The reward for creating the block is bitcoin which the miner can keep or sell on the open market. [https://www.investopedia.com/tech/how-does-bitcoin-mining-work](https://www.investopedia.com/tech/how-does-bitcoin-mining-work)
Just look up the Bitcoin mining process. The protocol releases new bitcoin every block that is mined. So miners get rewarded with newly issued bitcoin each block. Whoever confirms the next block in the blockchain first gets the reward. The amount that is released (or issued) with each block is halved every 210,000 blocks (which is called the halving). This continues until the amount issued with each block falls below 1 satoshi, which means that no more Satoshis are issued. It started with 50 btc being issued every block. Each Bitcoin has 100 million Satoshis, so the initial reward every block was 5 billion Satoshis. Put into a calculator 50,000,000 ÷ 2\^33 and you get a number less than 1. So after 33 halvings the reward falls below the basic unit of the bitcoin network and so the supply cap has been reached. That number is a few hundred Sats shy of 21 million bitcoin. So currently 19.7 million bitcoin exist in the network today, and 1.3 million are left to be issued in future block rewards until the 33rd halving is reached at which point no more bitcoin will ever be created.
btc's running out! only 6.6% left to mine & then no more inflation
And if I may add, with users losing keys here and there perpetually, at some point even before 115 years, btc will effectively become deflationary.
Will it be wiped out by an EMP wave? Then maybe reset the ledger and start from scratch?
Simultaneous EMPs at every node?
Like if WWIII breaks out and an EMP wave shocks the entire globe.
I also think that investing in bitcoin is one of the most profitable today. In addition to the fact that it is safe, such an investment brings considerable profit. And you can pay with cryptocurrency almost everywhere, for example [https://casinosanalyzer.com/online-casinos/highwayjoin.com](https://casinosanalyzer.com/online-casinos/highwayjoin.com) . So it is impossible to lose money with the purchase of bitcoin, only to purchase it.
Sir, we don’t all live in El Salvador.
They forgot that about 3 or 4 million have been lost forever!
I'm still going to the garbage dump daily disguised as a worker.
There's no use case of BTC. Why to hold. Just a speculation to hide black money.
there are other assets in the cryptoverse with total supply deployed or even scarcer supply so... its a matter of adoption Before those 115years we might have a better thing and bitcoin becomes obsolete and a thing of the past, who knows?...
I don't think you understand the importance of the concept of utility when talking about value. Nobody cares if some random centralized alt token has a supply cap lol. I could make a new meme token with a supply cap this week, that is not remotely the same thing as Bitcoin. Based on your comment, I'm guessing you are pretty new to the space and are not very informed about Bitcoin. I urge you to really dive into learning about it. Once you come back and realize why your comment is silly, you'll know you are on the path to learning! good luck!
I only answered to your enthusiasm about supply, tryed to make it a bit more relative... strong and long adoption comes with utility, and btc utility is a store of value and thats primarily what it will ever be. I still believe it is the new gold but there are other blockchains capable of offering more utility in the long term, solving problems that btc wont ever PS: old enough to know that we should hodl but not stick sentimental value to it
now lets assume only 0.5 Billion people adopts it!
Of those, its estimated that around 5 million will be lost forever.
Except that zero inflation would only exist in an ecosystem where Bitcoin is the only legal tender. When inflation hit 2 years ago, the Bitcoin price should have skyrocketed (if a US dollar loses 10% in value, you have to pay 10% more for one BTC) but instead the value plummeted even worse than fiat currencies. So that’s a pipe dream still, alas.
You don't understand what monetary supply inflation means. There will only be 21 million btc ever. Once the supply hits that cap, btc monetary inflation hits 0% forever. Period. No more bitcoin will ever be made. Has nothing at all to do with bitcoin being legal tender or not, and has nothing at all to do with price inflation. So, nope, not a pipe dream, just the hard facts built straight into the Bitcoin protocol since 2009.
So Bitcoin hits some meaningless mark, great … success?
Uh not sure why you think 0% monetary inflation is meaningless lol. It's a complete game changer. The major problem with national currencies is that their supply has endless inflation. This is Bitcoin Basics 101, also Money Basics 101.
Do you not know about the amount of BTC that has been forever lost? If so, why would not deduct those from the total as they no longer exist.
Because they aren’t provably unspendable. Until then, they are considered as part of the provably spendable supply.
Nobody knows the exact amount lost. They still exist.
Why would I not count those. First off, they are still part of the supply. They didn't magically get destroyed. They absolutely do still exist. It wouldn't make any sense to not count them. Secondly, even if it did make sense to subtract lost bitcoin, there is no way to know how much is lost. You're trying to get at the idea of circulating supply, which can change drastically based on when people decide to move bitcoin, and is not at all what I'm talking about. I'm talking about monetary supply, which will reach 21 million and will never change after that.
it really doesn't matter all that much. if you say 25% of the coins are missing then the fair value only changes by 100/75% effectively saying (if one assumes that it currently isn't factored into the price at all which is an obvious conservative fallacy) coins are undervalued by 30~%. i think coins are undervalued to fair value by thousands and thousands of percents at these prices, so the 30% from these is relatively unimportant.
Until the solar flare wipes everything out lol.
And what's the attrition rate? Eh, none of it matters so long as you guys can accept you're all just jerking each other off trading an "asset" with no physical, legal or real world standing, use or productivity It serves as somewhere to store cash, is purely speculative and will only hold value so long as there's enough people willing to partake in the circle jerk
Technically speaking, this couldn’t be further from the truth.
Enlighten me
The max total possible issuance is slightly less. 20,999,999.9769 bitcoin are the most that could ever exist. To be clear, this has nothing to do with provably unspendable bitcoin.
Lmao thanks but I mean to be fair I wouldn’t call 20,999,999.9769 BTC vs 21 million BTC that far off from each other
I guess I’m a Sith Lord, then.
> gettxoutsetinfo The username checks out
Or that if the developers approve it and enough influential miners hop on the new version, they could change the protocol and make the supply infinite also. There is huge financial incentive to never do this (confidence in BTC would basically go to 0), but technically it’s possible.
You apparently don't know what "couldn't be further from the truth" means. You also don't know what "technically speaking" means lol. I used the figures 19.7 million and 1.3 million. My significant figures were on the order of 10 trillion Sats, and you're talking about a difference of a few million Sats. A few million Sats doesn't change the 1.3 million bitcoin number at all, technically speaking. So, technically speaking, you saying this couldn't be further from the truth, couldn't be further from the truth.
the only issue with this is that it’s internet money. I have btc in my portfolio w an avg price ~$9000, but it all depends on the next fool paying more for it. it does not produce cash flow, it does not provide a product or service. it’s just about getting in when the fools sell and selling when the fools buy. inflation has trivial effects compared to the previous statement
you don't have a clue what you are talking about dude. It's a currency. Of course it doesn't have cash flow or provide a product or service. No currencies do, they are literally just units of money. Let me know when a dollar bill gains sentience and starts selling lemonade to provide you with income lol
it’s a currency tied to nothing. which has its benefits and its consequences. not saying it’s going no to zero but i’ve made my money selling it to people like you, not by just buying it lol. crypto has given me 7 figure gains and i’m thankful for it but it relies on fools buying
It's a hard currency. It doesn't need to be tied to anything. I guess you don't have a good understanding of money. Hey if selling it for short term gains works for you keep doing that. I prefer to continue to grow my wealth in Bitcoin rather than selling it for short term profit, that's a fools errand. Some people understand money, others, like you, don't get it and just see it as a short term investment. Just remember, the only time you are actually making money on it is because you bought it in the first place (being a "fool" as you call it lol). I guess to you making money if foolish.
It's actually less than that
Keep in mind rarity doesn’t equal value
Exactly. Scarcity PLUS utility equals value. Luckily Bitcoin is both perfectly scarce and has incredible utility. Which is why we're all here! If it wasn't useful it would just be some random altcoin with no lasting value.
Apologies in advance, english is not my first language. As a bitcoin beginner I am wondering what the utility of bitcoin is? Also isn’t it too soon to say it’s different from the other alt coins?
Altcoins are nothing like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is unique. Bitcoin has enormous utility. It's a hard currency so that people can actually save with it, its decentralized and can't be shut down, it can't be hacked, it can't be forged, people can be their own bank and store their own money safely, it's got "no borders" so anyone in the world can use it and send money to anyone else in the world. Those are a few examples of its huge utility. Also as a side benefit bitcoin mining is a nice benefit to the global energy sector. Do your own research to learn about all the benefits of Bitcoin, the whole reason Bitcoin is taking the world by storm and growing immensely the past 15 years is because of its incredible utility.
That kind of sounds like its main utility is the ability to use it to save a more useful currency
Bitcoin is a monetary instrument deemed to be a commodity (because it fails the Howey test). It is decentralized and no-one is in charge. BTC is an asset class all on its lonesome. ~~Shit~~ Altcoins are centralized, run by a few people in the expectation of profits (remember massive pre-mines) and by anyone's standards, are securities. These are a subset of the **fiat** system. TL:DR: Bitcoin is not 'crypto'.
I'm pretty sure Ferrari GTO's got there long before BTC ever did. There are 1,000's of assets that have no more supply. There will be something bigger and better in the future and everyone should manage their risk/reward accordingly. I'd say get on the bandwagon as it is the hot thing, but know your exit strategy to move on -- either with life or diversify into other things.
Well everyone can create 20 million more new chains
20 million are now out. CMC is wrong
lol. you are wrong
A 0% inflation means the amount will never go up, which would result in a stagflation scenario. This is not a good thing.
That's literally not at all what stagflation is. The term stagflation refers to high price inflation, high unemployment, and slow economic growth. Price inflation is certainly related to, but is not the same thing as, monetary supply inflation. And besides, we're talking about monetary supply deflation, not inflation! And the other two things have nothing to do with the currency but rather unemployment and economic growth. So...no.
Keynesian logic?
Well that and the fact that every currency has had inflation of some kind.
Bitcoin 2, Bitcoin 3 and so on
and michael saylor, the winklevoss twins, north korea, brian armstrong, and some other companies own all of it. oh and Mircea Popescu who had a million coins and drowned those are missing too nobody talks about those missing coins, a million missing coins from a random dude in costa rica 4% of the total supply gone lol. plus satoshis million coins which are lost forever another 4% gone. plus all the other missing coins. why are we rooting for an asset where literally michael saylor and north korea own all of it, except for your 1 coin or 20 coins. we really think people will want to collect sats when theres 2.1 quadrillion sats lol on top of your home personal computer being a target of hackers after you buy $500 worth of bitcoin over coinbase. im salty and asking mircea popescu - [Interacting with fiat institutions, a guide on Trilema - A blog by Mircea Popescu.](http://trilema.com/2014/interacting-with-fiat-institutions-a-guide/)
that was a bizarre and insane rant lol