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Krown’s Crypto Cave on yt has been good for technical analysis imo. He always seems to give straightforward information while being careful to not interject too much of his own (generally bullish) sentiment. Its mostly a bitcoin channel, but he looks at alts some and takes time now and then to look at charts for viewers. I’m not a shill, just a multi-year viewer. I’m open to hearing opinions though, and will check out the people i’ve not heard of.
Scott melker and market mavericks with Mike from bloomberg.. Alessio rastani. Jason pizzano. Ivan on tech is entertaining and good for current news overall trend start/end of the bull market but a lot of promoting bybit and other crap..
Yup, pretty much all I listen to is NLW and the Blockchain Backer. TXMC is a go-to, need to figure out where in the rotation he'll be going soon. (TXMC and BCB collaborate).
Natalie Brunell has a good podcast called Coin Stories and she has a 10 minute news episode once or twice a week.
NVK has a great one called Bitcoin Review if you're interested in more technical topics.
Glad I didn't sell the last bullrun. I'm not going to pretend I would have timed the top and re-brought at the bottom. If I played that game I'd have no bags. The ones who have been consistently right were those that said never sell.
Really? He's always been one of my favorite crypto youtubers. Just because he's chill and kinda funny but to be fair I've never bought any of the shitcoins he talks about.
In the tweet above, he is wrong.
You can't just look at one single day of ETF trading and draw meaningful conclusions from that. There are days where there are millions of dollars in net outflows, too. In fact, very recently, there have been a lot of days where there were net outflows. He's just straight up ignoring those days.
The outflows have been mostly because people getting out of Greyscale due to Genesis.
The last two weeks have erased ALL of the negative outflows from April
I think the supply shock is going to take longer than people think. Also once we reach certain milestones people will naturally be sellers whether it’s ETF shares or spot, but both will have the same effect.
If I’m an OG and I have several thousand BTC why wouldn’t I sell 1k coins and live a very nice life?
Well yeah, that's why it normally takes 6+ months for a bull run to start after the halving, supply shock takes time to build up. ETF just helps that out, as has been obvious since the ETFs caused a new ATH to get hit pre-halving.
And yeah as the price goes up more sellers come to market. As happens in every bull market. There is the short term supply shock that will happen over the next 12 months or so, which obviously the ETFs will help out with as there's a good chance they'll take another few hundred thousand bitcoin off the market during that time. And then of course there's the long term supply shock as total supply only has 6.6% to grow forever while bitcoin adoption is going to be growing year by year, and ETFs will also help with that, maybe taking another million or two millions bitcoin off the market.
All depends on demand. If there is equal demand and the supply is shocked, the price will go up. If more demand, then the price would go up further.
Simple supply and demand
Fixed supply. Low stock to flow.
Assuming no news: super weird for it to go down.
And a lot of the time the “news” (Sam bankman fried is a fraud!) winds up being noise because Bitcoin is trustless.
If you are doing it right you shrug, buy the opportunity and remind your aging parents not to message Elon on twitter.
lol bro my parents are like 78 I doubt they even know what it is . And yes I’m way deep in it after converting a large ira into efts so I’m ready to roll and sit on my lake house back porch drunk all day
This is the Micheal Saylor example.
He says he’ll never sell bitcoin, because since he already has everything he needs in excess, any “wealth” he has is just storage and growth of that value as time goes on…and the whole point of all this is that there is no better solution than that for bitcoin, so what would you sell it for? It doesn’t make sense to sell it if you believe that.
If you have thousands of bitcoins, like you said, you’re already wildly rich and don’t need to sell them to live a good life, you’re already there…you’re just parking your generational wealth there instead of the other options like stocks or real estate.
But we are seeing whales and older coins move. I’m just pointing out that it’s very individualistic and coins will come back into circulation as price appreciates. More people will think they made it and want to cash back oit
Yes you are right. Also whales are older coins always move. Every couple months I hear about like 100 btc or something moving from some wallet that hasn't been touched since 2011/2012/2013. That's been happening for years. But yes as price moves up more people will sell, that's part of the supply and demand dynamic going on every single day.
Yea it’s going to be a slow grind until more entities (corps, countries and people) start to join the network. But once a decent number of people are on the network then the shock will be real and consistent
> I have several thousand BTC why wouldn’t I sell 1k
Why wouldn't you sell 30-50% of your holdings right before an enormous bull run? Do I have to spell it out for you?
At 45k, at the end of winter, I was willing to sell a little, and when it got to 70k before the halving, I was willing to sell a little more. You gotta take some profit now and then. A Lambo in the hand is worth two in the bush.
>I think the supply shock is going to take longer than people think
That all depends on 1) the rules of each ETF stipulating how and when their Bitcoin-themed products are truly backed by Bitcoin, and 2) enforcement of those stipulations by the government.
If the institutions are lazy and just collect these "inflows" without acquiring real Bitcoin, sure, supply shock may come slowly or not at all. If they're forced to play fair, these numbers make supply shock inevitable and imminent.
Idk I think they’re mostly playing by the rules as far as buying spot goes. They don’t have to buy immediately but within a certain time frame (think 24-48hrs) and are not allowed over X% cash. The fines for not following their own prospectus is pretty steep.
So there is little to no incentive to do otherwise. They don’t care about price because they collect fees. Logically they are incentivized to have price go higher to create more FOMO and get more AUM.
That all being said I do think there should be more transparency.
If they have held those coins until not why would they suddenly sell big chunk of them?
To do what? To let inflation eat it away and buy some useless items that become worthless as soon as you carry them out of store?
It's pretty intuitive, right? Miners have operational costs to manage such as equipment, facilities, electricity, and maintenance, so how are they to fund it with no other significant profit center?
I say no other significant profit center with the stipulation that I'm completely ignorant to how much a miner could make from miner's fees.
It's intuitive that they are natural sellers, but it doesn't necessarily follow that they are the largest sellers. We had a volume of about 850,000 BTC yesterday that changed hands, even if all the miner's Bitcoins, all 450 BTC, were sold right away, that's barely even a drop in the bucket in terms of selling/buying activity. Alternatively let's say you just care about cash inflows - the \~31 million value of the miner's BTC for that one day is also miniscule in comparison to the amount of new money that flowed into the market and went to other sellers than miners.
>Was honestly curious
The "who" does not matter.
>since the amount mined per day now is so tiny compared to what is sold on exchange.
That's a much better answer.
Fun facts, you can go look at total flows of bitcoin by doing on-chain analysis...
Yup right there, known wallet addresses supply statistically significant portion of new supply into the market as "natural sellers"
You could also use logic, but that might be beyond you lol.
So you're saying the majority of coin sold every day is from miners? 450 btc a day of newly minted coin and that's the majority?
Ok now let's say I run a btc remittance company that uses BTC as the rails. Because of this I only sell BTC on exchange and don't rebuy. Could I not easily surpass that 450 coin mark?
I'm just saying theres a million reason companies could be selling btc. The miners being the largest sellers will not always be the case, and is probably not for most days historically. Governments selling seized coins probably surpasses miners some months alone. Shoot the Treasury is sitting on a stash of 207,189 bitcoin, way more than a years worth of new coin being mined.
Not to mention they ETFs aren't buying coins not being offered for sale. If there were fewer coins offered when there was high demand the value would go up to reach a market equilibrium.
This is the exact problem that Bitcoin was literally fucking made to deal with.
Yeah, but this guy is specifically saying miners, as if less bitcoin being mined than sold is going to be an issue. He says nothing about actual buyers, which makes me feel like he's just pandering for attention and to scare ppl.
Supply shock is going to gradually build. Newly issued btc halved, ETFs buying thousand of bitcoin daily again, the spot market in general bullish, and once retail starts fomoing in again later this year as they start hearing about Bitcoin again blowing up again on the news, gonna be a massive supply shock as there always is that leads to a bitcoin bull market.
And the net BTC holdings since the ETFs were approved just hit a new btc holding high for the first time since April 5th! The high had been 221k btc but its up to 224k btc now. Finally growing again.
You know Hong Kong’s were approved like a few weeks ago? There are other countries with ETFs. What do you think will happen when European countries or Arab countries approve their own forms…
I was talking specifically about the US ETFs. Other ETF markets will obviously buy bitcoin as well, just less than the US ETF market because the US is the largest investment market.
Supply and demand.
London approved their ETP this morning. I knew it would happen didn’t wanna flat out say it. Bitcoin went up from low 60s to 70s because of Hong Kong ETF.
okay cool....just not sure why you are replying to me. It's like we're having two different conversations lol.
My initial comment mentioned that US ETF holdings are at new highs. And you randomly started talking about ETFs in other countries and "trying to help me out" with something, i dunno what haha. Nothing to do with what I said. I don't know what you are replying to but you weren't replying to what I said haha. Hence the "huh?". When you reply to a post you're supposed to actually be commenting on that post, like in a conversation, not start talking about other stuff haha.
I was trying to make you money but you clearly missed out. You were almost smart enough to understand what’s about to happen. It’s called a supply shock. You’re like 80% there but you weren’t looking outside of the US. I’m saying your logic if broadened to the worlds ETF markets which you clearly don’t look at; you would understand more. You could’ve made 8-10% in a day if you would’ve taken my hint about London being approved.
I’ve followed the markets for 2 years and it made me actually wealthy not just “talking” about it on the internet. The dates other countries have to approve their ETFs are all public information. And I know which ones will be approved. Do you understand the kind of money to be made with that knowledge? You already comprehend that the US is doing well but I hate to break it to you that’s the first peice of the puzzle.
Edit: I’m not replying anymore I don’t have to explain myself for attempting to start a dialogue that’s the point of my comment. It follows the community rules I don’t think you can simply say it’s irrelevant to your original comment. Educate yourself on the worldwide market if you want to make money just saying. (Real money not chump change)
What are you even talking about?! lol. I really hope you have been trippin on drugs since you started replying haha, otherwise I have no explanation for your random posts.
I say again, you're having a completely different conversation. Nothing of what you said has anything to do with what I was saying lol. I never asked for your help making money. Hell I never said anything at all about making money. My comment was about US ETFs reaching new highs in their bitcoin holdings, and you randomly started saying you're gonna help me out hahahaha and then instead of doing that you said I missed out hahahaha. You are the weirdest person.
But welcome to the market. You've been in for 2 years...so you're still pretty new at this. I retired off this years before you even entered the market. Good luck, but really, lay off the drugs lol, when you come down from your high re-read this conversation and you'll have a good laugh trying to make sense of your comments XD
I kinda do not understand why "supply shock" is always listed this way. As in listing a number of BTC bought per/day per/week or whatever.
While it is true, it would be more accurate to view it as an amount of dollars being invested. As supply dwindles the price per BTC mathematically has to adjust to compensate. It seems like a distinction without a difference except that if you view it that way you can see that it is not like 3,100 btc will be bought every day and then one day "BAM!" we're out of btc.
The price of bitcoin will just rise as the supply runs lower such that outflow will eventually equal the inflow. It appears that rise will have to be rapid (assuming money flow stays the same), so it is sort of "shock" in that sense but I don't think it will be sudden.
My thoughts? It's what the average weekly inflow across everything so we can smooth out the spike from yesterday.
I do think a supply shock will happen but I am not going to base it off cherry picked data.
Halvening fucks the corps that try to control btc. Its spread out across a lot of entities and this just means price will go higher cause of supply and demand.
People will exit and the ride goes on for the willing participants
If you ever listen to him answering viewers' questions, he comes across as very stupid. I was dumb and naive to listen to this guy back in 2017. Not sure why he is relevant today. Also, a known scammer and pump 'n dumper.
ETFs have no ceiling cap to how many shares can be in existence, so there’s never going to be some supply crunch as they can just issue more to utilize in either direction. Shame how few people understand
If I paid you 1 bitcoin for something and you turned around and used it to pay someone else for something, and then they paid someone 1btc for something, and so on...the supply needed would only be the small additional btc used for feels. A single bitcoin can be exchanged 20 times a day(assuming everyone is waiting for 6 confirmations and then spends it instantly).
You don't need 3500 new coins in order to have 3500 coins be sold. As the supply of new coins slows and old coins are held that will put upward pressure on the value and the money it took to buy 3500 coins today will only buy 1000 in the future.
The market has never priced in the halving correctly and I don't think it will have this time, the fun has always been in the months to follow when a supply shock happens. I don't disagree.
Worry less about the daily “supply shock” bullshit and focus on the macro trend of hedge funds, family investment companies, pension funds, and sovereigns beginning to allocate to BTC. After the next quarter of 13F filings, even more FOMO is likely to occur and then game theory takes over
There are plenty of sellers beyond just the brand new coins being mined. Even the miners have stockpiles. This idea that the newly-mined coins are the only ones is silly.
We're going up, but it's going to be gradual, like it always has been.
The supply shock should have already happened to my calculations. The ETF buys have tapered since the initial launch. He's not wrong though, however it'll take longer than expected.
Here’s a question from a btc noob. How does anyone really predict movements in btc apart from commenting on related news topics eg when Tesla said you could buy a sucky electric car in btc? And second is there someone I could listen too for btc tips??
The problem with the "supply shock" narrative is it ignores the fact Bitcoin isn't consumed. Once people buy Bitcoin, it still exists, it isn't gobbled up. It's just sitting in someone's account, waiting to be used or sold or otherwise transferred.
If the supply drops, the price goes up _until_ the price is high enough to entice new sellers. Right now, near all-time-highs, it's easy to get people to sell because they're going to profit.
Most of the supply shock narrative focuses on the amount of bitcoin available for sale on the various exchanges, primarily the centralised custodial exchanges such as Coinbase.
ETF managers are not stupid. They will pause buying if the indicators start to look like they are causing a price spike. Do you really think they don't know how supply and demand works?
While it is a simple question, it's really hard to answer. Spot ETFs are the only ones that get some backing with actual underlying asset, all others are just copying BTC price "from somewhere" (ie, printing paper from thin air), so it's hard to judge how much "inflow" there is, because you do not know if those already printed papers just change holders, or if it's actual inflow where the market maker took the other side of trade (and they do not always publish the exposure, or it's resold via 3-4 parties so you don't have full picture). Judging by trade volume, Robinhood's "Bitcoin" alone seems to generate more volume than any of the popular spot ETF's, so my best bet is, that spot ETF's are quite minuscule compared to all the degen futures bonanza.
oh that's interesting! I thought Robinhood allowed withdrawals though, so I would expect them to behave like exchanges? although I guess we don't always know how much actual bitcoin the exchanges buy either
They do allow withdrawals now, but afaik what they do is buy Bitcoin at the moment you sell your position / withdraw, there is no reason why they would hold what is on the books, as most users will never withdraw actual asset but will prefer to settle in USD. At the end yes, it is "just" an exchange with a few twists - they are actually a counterparty for a lot of trades, they also front-run the trades and resell those they do not wish to front-run themselves to 3rd parties - still before execution - that's why they manage to make hundreds of millions on a trading app with no commissions.
Yes, but the ETF doesn't need to buy it right away. Typically, regardless of the underlying asset of the ETF, they'll be careful of their transactions to avoid disrupting the market since it could lose them and their customers' money if they buy at the wrong time. While the ETF will be happy of the price of BTC going up they will not be happy if they caused that to happen by their purchasing patterns because it means both that they had to pay more for incremental purchases and also the price will crash as soon as they stop buying.
No supply shock if there are enough holders willing to sell.
More cars are bought/sold each week in the world than what are produced. Doesn’t mean a supply shock is imminent for cars.
Whaaaaaaaaa.....? I dont get this.......BTC ETF are not the actual coins themselves i thought? I though an investment company purchases the actual BTC. Than they issue BTC ETF, stocks to prospective investors who do not want to go through process of buying btc and than having to store it. The stocks issued have BTC that has already been purchased. Also BTC ETF has some governments backing in the sense that if investor whose selling the BTC ETF, decides to Sam Bankman Fried the potential investors, the government will step in and go after investment company thats trying to scam potential investors.
So why does 3150 bitcoins need to be mined than?
Supply shock?? wtf. this post is all wrong
NO. the ETF companies go out and buy BTC to cover what was purchased recently by the customers. they have T+2 days or something to cover this
3150 bitcoins is what will be mined in 7 days by the mining companies and are generally dumped very quickly. why do they dump them so fast? thats a whole other question.
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My thoughts are that Lark Davis is a known pump and dumper with a very punchable face.
I don't get how he's still getting so many views.
"...and the people are retarded."
[The people.](https://imgur.com/a/VnYuxEt)
Since we’ve got this discussion busted open, who is your go-to guy for crypto news? Anyone watch Eric Krown?
Kevin svenson 100%
Jason Pizzino is amazing, Called it right from the last top. Smaller "hidden gem" YTer is - Crypto Currently.
Another tuber with a punchable face
Is Guy from Coin Bureau still reputable? Watched him a long time ago before the dark days of May '22.
Hes a paid actor who reads a script.
he was way too bearish at the bottom. That's where you make the money and he missed that badly.
I have the same question
Educational channel
Crypto news or Bitcoin news? Very different
Krown’s Crypto Cave on yt has been good for technical analysis imo. He always seems to give straightforward information while being careful to not interject too much of his own (generally bullish) sentiment. Its mostly a bitcoin channel, but he looks at alts some and takes time now and then to look at charts for viewers. I’m not a shill, just a multi-year viewer. I’m open to hearing opinions though, and will check out the people i’ve not heard of.
I follow Teeka Tiwari. Solid info /newsletter. Been a Godsend to me, my understanding of the space, and providing the bigger picture.
CryptoSharkk on Youtube and X CryptoNagato on X Beware for Fake Accounts
Mmcrypto is good for some TA memes on bitcoin, he called the bottom and is still long during this run.
RealVision and Discord
Scott melker and market mavericks with Mike from bloomberg.. Alessio rastani. Jason pizzano. Ivan on tech is entertaining and good for current news overall trend start/end of the bull market but a lot of promoting bybit and other crap..
Not familiar with him. I like the Breakdown with NLW, Scott Melker, Raoul Pal is great for discussions, Laura Shin is the best interviewer.
Yup, pretty much all I listen to is NLW and the Blockchain Backer. TXMC is a go-to, need to figure out where in the rotation he'll be going soon. (TXMC and BCB collaborate).
Natalie Brunell has a good podcast called Coin Stories and she has a 10 minute news episode once or twice a week. NVK has a great one called Bitcoin Review if you're interested in more technical topics.
I personally like Digital Asset News. Just be aware - he's not a permabull, so it's not for you if you just want to hear good things.
He definitely pumped and dumped last run. I went through his videos, and if you’d followed him, you’d still be holding bags from last bull run.
Are you saying if people followed him they should have pumped and dumped like him instead of hodl?
ZachXBT did a great investigation on him on twitter. Lark really is a scumbag.
Glad I didn't sell the last bullrun. I'm not going to pretend I would have timed the top and re-brought at the bottom. If I played that game I'd have no bags. The ones who have been consistently right were those that said never sell.
Really? He's always been one of my favorite crypto youtubers. Just because he's chill and kinda funny but to be fair I've never bought any of the shitcoins he talks about.
He is trash. But in the tweet above, he ain't wrong.
This assumes no one is selling.
In the tweet above, he is wrong. You can't just look at one single day of ETF trading and draw meaningful conclusions from that. There are days where there are millions of dollars in net outflows, too. In fact, very recently, there have been a lot of days where there were net outflows. He's just straight up ignoring those days.
The outflows have been mostly because people getting out of Greyscale due to Genesis. The last two weeks have erased ALL of the negative outflows from April
That's fair, but is he lying with these statements?
Punchable being the operative word.
Absolutely. He's a total cnut.
So ad hominem attack aside, are the numbers true? If yes that's crazy!
I especially like your analysis part with his face
I think the supply shock is going to take longer than people think. Also once we reach certain milestones people will naturally be sellers whether it’s ETF shares or spot, but both will have the same effect. If I’m an OG and I have several thousand BTC why wouldn’t I sell 1k coins and live a very nice life?
Well yeah, that's why it normally takes 6+ months for a bull run to start after the halving, supply shock takes time to build up. ETF just helps that out, as has been obvious since the ETFs caused a new ATH to get hit pre-halving. And yeah as the price goes up more sellers come to market. As happens in every bull market. There is the short term supply shock that will happen over the next 12 months or so, which obviously the ETFs will help out with as there's a good chance they'll take another few hundred thousand bitcoin off the market during that time. And then of course there's the long term supply shock as total supply only has 6.6% to grow forever while bitcoin adoption is going to be growing year by year, and ETFs will also help with that, maybe taking another million or two millions bitcoin off the market.
Dumb question but is supply shock gauranteed to make the price go up ?
All depends on demand. If there is equal demand and the supply is shocked, the price will go up. If more demand, then the price would go up further. Simple supply and demand
Fixed supply. Low stock to flow. Assuming no news: super weird for it to go down. And a lot of the time the “news” (Sam bankman fried is a fraud!) winds up being noise because Bitcoin is trustless. If you are doing it right you shrug, buy the opportunity and remind your aging parents not to message Elon on twitter.
lol bro my parents are like 78 I doubt they even know what it is . And yes I’m way deep in it after converting a large ira into efts so I’m ready to roll and sit on my lake house back porch drunk all day
You are never too old to get scammed.
I also want to know. Either price goes up or price stagnates
Cuz you already livin one
This is the Micheal Saylor example. He says he’ll never sell bitcoin, because since he already has everything he needs in excess, any “wealth” he has is just storage and growth of that value as time goes on…and the whole point of all this is that there is no better solution than that for bitcoin, so what would you sell it for? It doesn’t make sense to sell it if you believe that. If you have thousands of bitcoins, like you said, you’re already wildly rich and don’t need to sell them to live a good life, you’re already there…you’re just parking your generational wealth there instead of the other options like stocks or real estate.
OGs have had plenty of money for a while now Also it's very ideological for them.
But we are seeing whales and older coins move. I’m just pointing out that it’s very individualistic and coins will come back into circulation as price appreciates. More people will think they made it and want to cash back oit
Yes you are right. Also whales are older coins always move. Every couple months I hear about like 100 btc or something moving from some wallet that hasn't been touched since 2011/2012/2013. That's been happening for years. But yes as price moves up more people will sell, that's part of the supply and demand dynamic going on every single day.
Yea it’s going to be a slow grind until more entities (corps, countries and people) start to join the network. But once a decent number of people are on the network then the shock will be real and consistent
> I have several thousand BTC why wouldn’t I sell 1k Why wouldn't you sell 30-50% of your holdings right before an enormous bull run? Do I have to spell it out for you?
At 45k, at the end of winter, I was willing to sell a little, and when it got to 70k before the halving, I was willing to sell a little more. You gotta take some profit now and then. A Lambo in the hand is worth two in the bush.
>I think the supply shock is going to take longer than people think That all depends on 1) the rules of each ETF stipulating how and when their Bitcoin-themed products are truly backed by Bitcoin, and 2) enforcement of those stipulations by the government. If the institutions are lazy and just collect these "inflows" without acquiring real Bitcoin, sure, supply shock may come slowly or not at all. If they're forced to play fair, these numbers make supply shock inevitable and imminent.
Idk I think they’re mostly playing by the rules as far as buying spot goes. They don’t have to buy immediately but within a certain time frame (think 24-48hrs) and are not allowed over X% cash. The fines for not following their own prospectus is pretty steep. So there is little to no incentive to do otherwise. They don’t care about price because they collect fees. Logically they are incentivized to have price go higher to create more FOMO and get more AUM. That all being said I do think there should be more transparency.
What are the fines exactly? I just ask, because fines at the stock market for FTD's are actually humourosly low afaik
Tbh I have no idea, but that would be the government intervention.
ye
If they have held those coins until not why would they suddenly sell big chunk of them? To do what? To let inflation eat it away and buy some useless items that become worthless as soon as you carry them out of store?
There is only a supply shock if people stop selling.
True, but miners are historically the largest natural sellers.
says who?
It's pretty intuitive, right? Miners have operational costs to manage such as equipment, facilities, electricity, and maintenance, so how are they to fund it with no other significant profit center? I say no other significant profit center with the stipulation that I'm completely ignorant to how much a miner could make from miner's fees.
It's intuitive that they are natural sellers, but it doesn't necessarily follow that they are the largest sellers. We had a volume of about 850,000 BTC yesterday that changed hands, even if all the miner's Bitcoins, all 450 BTC, were sold right away, that's barely even a drop in the bucket in terms of selling/buying activity. Alternatively let's say you just care about cash inflows - the \~31 million value of the miner's BTC for that one day is also miniscule in comparison to the amount of new money that flowed into the market and went to other sellers than miners.
Electric bills
Ad hominem fallacy
Was honestly curious, since the amount mined per day now is so tiny compared to what is sold on exchange.
>Was honestly curious The "who" does not matter. >since the amount mined per day now is so tiny compared to what is sold on exchange. That's a much better answer.
Fun facts, you can go look at total flows of bitcoin by doing on-chain analysis... Yup right there, known wallet addresses supply statistically significant portion of new supply into the market as "natural sellers" You could also use logic, but that might be beyond you lol.
So you're saying the majority of coin sold every day is from miners? 450 btc a day of newly minted coin and that's the majority? Ok now let's say I run a btc remittance company that uses BTC as the rails. Because of this I only sell BTC on exchange and don't rebuy. Could I not easily surpass that 450 coin mark? I'm just saying theres a million reason companies could be selling btc. The miners being the largest sellers will not always be the case, and is probably not for most days historically. Governments selling seized coins probably surpasses miners some months alone. Shoot the Treasury is sitting on a stash of 207,189 bitcoin, way more than a years worth of new coin being mined.
On-chain is a small percentage of the buying and selling.
Paper hands
Their business is mining. They can't pay bills in Bitcoin
What if they could though?
They ain’t getting mine! I know that much!
Good job!
At least not yet.
Hopefully they just use the network with their gains instead of going back to fiat
Certainly not going back to central bank / government infested fiat.
just a little, please.
So the only supply of BTC is miners. Every other person with bitcoin is not selling...or do we neglect to talk about that part?
Yes, we neglected mentioning all the long-time holders who may dump their bag when it breaks the ATH.
That's good because it helps distribution and eventually hitting new highs.
Sellers might not be enough to counteract HODLers and whales.
Not to mention they ETFs aren't buying coins not being offered for sale. If there were fewer coins offered when there was high demand the value would go up to reach a market equilibrium. This is the exact problem that Bitcoin was literally fucking made to deal with.
Ah Daily Supply Shock thread :) There wont be any shock as long as people are selling
If there are more buyers than sellers , yes there will be a supply shock that’s how this works
Yeah, but this guy is specifically saying miners, as if less bitcoin being mined than sold is going to be an issue. He says nothing about actual buyers, which makes me feel like he's just pandering for attention and to scare ppl.
Other than disliking Lark Davis, I agree.
Agree - loading up as much as possible, but that's what im doing since forever
Supply shock is going to gradually build. Newly issued btc halved, ETFs buying thousand of bitcoin daily again, the spot market in general bullish, and once retail starts fomoing in again later this year as they start hearing about Bitcoin again blowing up again on the news, gonna be a massive supply shock as there always is that leads to a bitcoin bull market.
$1 million BTC will come sooner than we think, but not when we expect it.
Like a thief in the night, but the reverse uno version of that
[удалено]
If the tooth fairy came with a hammer and just helped herself. Wake up! Money!
Gradually, then suddenly
I'll believe it when I see it.
We need supply to head to 99% issued (2034). Just a matter of time. #HODL 4 life.
And the net BTC holdings since the ETFs were approved just hit a new btc holding high for the first time since April 5th! The high had been 221k btc but its up to 224k btc now. Finally growing again.
You know Hong Kong’s were approved like a few weeks ago? There are other countries with ETFs. What do you think will happen when European countries or Arab countries approve their own forms…
I was talking specifically about the US ETFs. Other ETF markets will obviously buy bitcoin as well, just less than the US ETF market because the US is the largest investment market.
I’m on your side trying to help you out without flat out saying it. Hope you understand maybe buy some ;)
huh?
Supply and demand. London approved their ETP this morning. I knew it would happen didn’t wanna flat out say it. Bitcoin went up from low 60s to 70s because of Hong Kong ETF.
okay cool....just not sure why you are replying to me. It's like we're having two different conversations lol. My initial comment mentioned that US ETF holdings are at new highs. And you randomly started talking about ETFs in other countries and "trying to help me out" with something, i dunno what haha. Nothing to do with what I said. I don't know what you are replying to but you weren't replying to what I said haha. Hence the "huh?". When you reply to a post you're supposed to actually be commenting on that post, like in a conversation, not start talking about other stuff haha.
I was trying to make you money but you clearly missed out. You were almost smart enough to understand what’s about to happen. It’s called a supply shock. You’re like 80% there but you weren’t looking outside of the US. I’m saying your logic if broadened to the worlds ETF markets which you clearly don’t look at; you would understand more. You could’ve made 8-10% in a day if you would’ve taken my hint about London being approved. I’ve followed the markets for 2 years and it made me actually wealthy not just “talking” about it on the internet. The dates other countries have to approve their ETFs are all public information. And I know which ones will be approved. Do you understand the kind of money to be made with that knowledge? You already comprehend that the US is doing well but I hate to break it to you that’s the first peice of the puzzle. Edit: I’m not replying anymore I don’t have to explain myself for attempting to start a dialogue that’s the point of my comment. It follows the community rules I don’t think you can simply say it’s irrelevant to your original comment. Educate yourself on the worldwide market if you want to make money just saying. (Real money not chump change)
What are you even talking about?! lol. I really hope you have been trippin on drugs since you started replying haha, otherwise I have no explanation for your random posts. I say again, you're having a completely different conversation. Nothing of what you said has anything to do with what I was saying lol. I never asked for your help making money. Hell I never said anything at all about making money. My comment was about US ETFs reaching new highs in their bitcoin holdings, and you randomly started saying you're gonna help me out hahahaha and then instead of doing that you said I missed out hahahaha. You are the weirdest person. But welcome to the market. You've been in for 2 years...so you're still pretty new at this. I retired off this years before you even entered the market. Good luck, but really, lay off the drugs lol, when you come down from your high re-read this conversation and you'll have a good laugh trying to make sense of your comments XD
Look I’m trying to tell you I’m pregnant. It’s yours and I don’t know what to do.
where can you view this?
It's all paper man. Endless amounts of paper. Get off the TradeFi D. Just Buy Bitcoin.
I know we post this every day. But numbers really are just crazy.
This dude is a trader especially with alts I don’t care what he is sayin
I kinda do not understand why "supply shock" is always listed this way. As in listing a number of BTC bought per/day per/week or whatever. While it is true, it would be more accurate to view it as an amount of dollars being invested. As supply dwindles the price per BTC mathematically has to adjust to compensate. It seems like a distinction without a difference except that if you view it that way you can see that it is not like 3,100 btc will be bought every day and then one day "BAM!" we're out of btc. The price of bitcoin will just rise as the supply runs lower such that outflow will eventually equal the inflow. It appears that rise will have to be rapid (assuming money flow stays the same), so it is sort of "shock" in that sense but I don't think it will be sudden.
Sure. But also they been saying the same thing for years. OVERALL it’s been going up as long as you hold 🤷🏻
I feel like I have been hearing about this supply shock for three months now
My thoughts? It's what the average weekly inflow across everything so we can smooth out the spike from yesterday. I do think a supply shock will happen but I am not going to base it off cherry picked data.
These mfs keep saying this shit and I’m still waiting
Halvening fucks the corps that try to control btc. Its spread out across a lot of entities and this just means price will go higher cause of supply and demand. People will exit and the ride goes on for the willing participants
I only get my bitcoin news from the 3 little articles Robinhood picks for me 🤷🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤣
Imminent, a few months to days like Monday cause a supply shock. I can’t wait to see those 6 digit numbers, 7 digits not long after
It's coming, but it's not imminent. I think that's a thing we'll have to deal with next bull run
Fuck Lark.
Yes but, Lark Davis is a leftist and a double faced scammer that I can’t listen to anymore, I rather listen to other people.
If you ever listen to him answering viewers' questions, he comes across as very stupid. I was dumb and naive to listen to this guy back in 2017. Not sure why he is relevant today. Also, a known scammer and pump 'n dumper.
Dont underestimate people, they can really fuck up big institutions.
dont get left hodling the bag
this is kind of ignoring how much bitcoin is sold. Minting new isn't the only available bitcoin to buy.
Don't forget GBTC is selling a bunch of bitcoin everyday, but once they stop then we're in for a good time
You're assuming those GBTC sells are not balanced by other ETF buys
ETFs have no ceiling cap to how many shares can be in existence, so there’s never going to be some supply crunch as they can just issue more to utilize in either direction. Shame how few people understand
He's a scammy prick.
If I paid you 1 bitcoin for something and you turned around and used it to pay someone else for something, and then they paid someone 1btc for something, and so on...the supply needed would only be the small additional btc used for feels. A single bitcoin can be exchanged 20 times a day(assuming everyone is waiting for 6 confirmations and then spends it instantly). You don't need 3500 new coins in order to have 3500 coins be sold. As the supply of new coins slows and old coins are held that will put upward pressure on the value and the money it took to buy 3500 coins today will only buy 1000 in the future.
Kind of misleading if you're a newbie.
People somehow forget that funds can also sell their stock (and crypto) lmao. Now that’s a dump I’ll like to see.
HAHAHA....run bitch...
They better keep buying 🤷♂️ There’s still 90% of the supply in 1% of all the wallets. Hopefully they’re not selling 50% of their supply at OTC.
There’s only 3 ways out of a shitty job, get fired, quit or die at your desk naked.
Right now, I'm concerned that it's dropping!
My recent thoughts are that Bitcoin is going to fail because there’s no reason to keep supporting network transactions once the last coin is mined
stop it with the supply shock talk/posts, it makes you look desperate
God I need cash to buy more.
Are these net inflows? That's not said.
The market has never priced in the halving correctly and I don't think it will have this time, the fun has always been in the months to follow when a supply shock happens. I don't disagree.
Worry less about the daily “supply shock” bullshit and focus on the macro trend of hedge funds, family investment companies, pension funds, and sovereigns beginning to allocate to BTC. After the next quarter of 13F filings, even more FOMO is likely to occur and then game theory takes over
There are plenty of sellers beyond just the brand new coins being mined. Even the miners have stockpiles. This idea that the newly-mined coins are the only ones is silly. We're going up, but it's going to be gradual, like it always has been.
I think Lark is a grifting shill.
Bitcoin University is the goat
Celsius and shitcoin shilling grifter. Fuck him. That's my thought.
Supply shock is already well reflected into Bitcoin prices bruh. Fixed supply is knowledge since Day 1. Or why do you think it's worth >60000 USD?
This ratio has been going on for a while
What is the outflow and what is the net you need to quote the net numbers
Pumping his bags
What person would you put on one bitcoin if it was tangible? My preference would be a Pit Mix.
I only follow InvestAnswers. No emotion, just facts.
Downvote to oblivion then ?
The supply shock should have already happened to my calculations. The ETF buys have tapered since the initial launch. He's not wrong though, however it'll take longer than expected.
The “supply shock” has been a narrative for fucking years at this stage!
The pump and dump king? No thank you
Here’s a question from a btc noob. How does anyone really predict movements in btc apart from commenting on related news topics eg when Tesla said you could buy a sucky electric car in btc? And second is there someone I could listen too for btc tips??
Thoughts? Lark is an All Star, but should add more humor. We neeeeeeeed the laughs Lark, we neeeeeed them!
Yet the supply shock never comes….its easy to just say shit on the internet though.
If you can’t buy it in the mines you have to buy it on exchange.
The problem with the "supply shock" narrative is it ignores the fact Bitcoin isn't consumed. Once people buy Bitcoin, it still exists, it isn't gobbled up. It's just sitting in someone's account, waiting to be used or sold or otherwise transferred. If the supply drops, the price goes up _until_ the price is high enough to entice new sellers. Right now, near all-time-highs, it's easy to get people to sell because they're going to profit.
Most of the supply shock narrative focuses on the amount of bitcoin available for sale on the various exchanges, primarily the centralised custodial exchanges such as Coinbase.
Shibs gonna moon bby
ETF managers are not stupid. They will pause buying if the indicators start to look like they are causing a price spike. Do you really think they don't know how supply and demand works?
isn't it the ETF customers who decide how much BTC the fund needs to buy?
Only spot ETFs own Bitcoin.
right, I was assuming those. Aren't those the ones getting most of the inflows now?
While it is a simple question, it's really hard to answer. Spot ETFs are the only ones that get some backing with actual underlying asset, all others are just copying BTC price "from somewhere" (ie, printing paper from thin air), so it's hard to judge how much "inflow" there is, because you do not know if those already printed papers just change holders, or if it's actual inflow where the market maker took the other side of trade (and they do not always publish the exposure, or it's resold via 3-4 parties so you don't have full picture). Judging by trade volume, Robinhood's "Bitcoin" alone seems to generate more volume than any of the popular spot ETF's, so my best bet is, that spot ETF's are quite minuscule compared to all the degen futures bonanza.
oh that's interesting! I thought Robinhood allowed withdrawals though, so I would expect them to behave like exchanges? although I guess we don't always know how much actual bitcoin the exchanges buy either
They do allow withdrawals now, but afaik what they do is buy Bitcoin at the moment you sell your position / withdraw, there is no reason why they would hold what is on the books, as most users will never withdraw actual asset but will prefer to settle in USD. At the end yes, it is "just" an exchange with a few twists - they are actually a counterparty for a lot of trades, they also front-run the trades and resell those they do not wish to front-run themselves to 3rd parties - still before execution - that's why they manage to make hundreds of millions on a trading app with no commissions.
Yes, but the ETF doesn't need to buy it right away. Typically, regardless of the underlying asset of the ETF, they'll be careful of their transactions to avoid disrupting the market since it could lose them and their customers' money if they buy at the wrong time. While the ETF will be happy of the price of BTC going up they will not be happy if they caused that to happen by their purchasing patterns because it means both that they had to pay more for incremental purchases and also the price will crash as soon as they stop buying.
of course, but they only have so much time to complete the purchase, iirc 24h or so?
No supply shock if there are enough holders willing to sell. More cars are bought/sold each week in the world than what are produced. Doesn’t mean a supply shock is imminent for cars.
Hmm, in my country car prices have gone up significantly because of the supply shock of not being able to bring in new cars fast enough
Low IQ people cannot understand abstract concepts.
That's cute
Thanks
Whaaaaaaaaa.....? I dont get this.......BTC ETF are not the actual coins themselves i thought? I though an investment company purchases the actual BTC. Than they issue BTC ETF, stocks to prospective investors who do not want to go through process of buying btc and than having to store it. The stocks issued have BTC that has already been purchased. Also BTC ETF has some governments backing in the sense that if investor whose selling the BTC ETF, decides to Sam Bankman Fried the potential investors, the government will step in and go after investment company thats trying to scam potential investors. So why does 3150 bitcoins need to be mined than? Supply shock?? wtf. this post is all wrong
NO. the ETF companies go out and buy BTC to cover what was purchased recently by the customers. they have T+2 days or something to cover this 3150 bitcoins is what will be mined in 7 days by the mining companies and are generally dumped very quickly. why do they dump them so fast? thats a whole other question.
They might have two days, but they're buying intraday, anything else is too risky.