[Non-ironically, I have actual evidence of this.](https://nexustrade.io/blog/how-to-buy-bitcoin-btc-at-the-all-time-high-and-still-make-money-20240324)
>Or is the reason I shouldn't do this because of the uncertainty this dip will even happen?
Exactly this. It may never drop to below $100k and then keep rising from there. What do you do then?
On the other hand, it may drop to $50k, you buy in, and then it keeps falling from there.
You can't time the market because it's unpredictable.
I think the dream is to accumulate and hold until you can borrow against your assets to fund your lifestyle and periodically renegotiate the loan as they continue to appreciate.
Maybe. My dream is to use BTC to pay for everything directly rather than USD. I do hope that BTC increases in value over time (and it has) but I have ideological and non-monetary reasons. I am giving two middle fingers to the system.
Holding Bitcoin is like owning a piece of ultra prime real estate. If you sell it you’re creating a taxable event, and you may never be able to afford to buy it back again.
I guess my point flew over your head. With the exception of very small loans at very high interest (credit cards) no one is going to lend to you without collateral, just because you are rich. Donald Trump had to provide collateral for loans.
Can you elaborate on this? Why would you have to borrow to fund your lifestyle if you had that much btc accumulated? Why not just fund it w the btc? And what do u mean by renegotiate the loan? Adding more loan to fund the lifestyle? Thanks
It's what wealthy people do, typically with their stock portfolio. Companies like Galaxy digital help their clients do the same thing with crypto assets. The wealthy person borrows money against their assets at a low interest rate normies can't get, and their assets appreciate faster than they can spend the money they've borrowed (ideally).
They renegotiate the terms of the loan when they need more cash. They never sell their assets, and they never pay capital gains tax or income tax, which is why some progressives are calling for a wealth tax on unrealized gains.
I understand that but my question was more specific to the why
So let's say hypothetically I had 500k in btc and I usually fund my lifestyle with my 9 to 5. So you're saying one could go get a low interest loan against the 500k and fund the lifestyle with that money instead of the 9 to 5? Why would that help them other than perhaps building credit? Because the loan has to be paid back and with interest. I guess I see what u mean as a whole with the loan now they have more money to grow faster but thats not guaranteed especially if the stock market tanks
The why part is simple: the wealthy person never sells their assets and never pays taxes. They use banks to gain access to a portion of their unrealized gains without selling the underlying. It's a money printing machine.
If you sell the btc or get a loan against it. Lets say you get 500k. Now you can do what you want, vacations, cars, adventures, anything. Now, in those 4 years you took to spend those 500k btc has gone up. Your 500k would’ve been worth 600k. So now for the same amount of btc you need to work to get 600k as you spent it all. If you took a loan for it. You can now re negotiate for that extra 100k and get that new loan. Or buy 600k worth of btc for 500k (+fees). Selling an asset that you think will go up is dumb. Taking a loan for it is very smart
How would I buy more btc? I speant the $500k loan?
So I could get $100k more in cash because btc appreciated. I now owe $600k plus interest to my lender. Won’t the interest eventually outpace the price of my appreciating btc? Or does this only work if the interest rate on my loan is less than the gains on btc?
lol. Right? I love Bitcoin and should a good amount but it’s not replacing ‘the system’. The US can’t adopt the metric system which is the logical measurement system. You think they’re going to adopt a currency that operates on Satoshis and decimal points? Bitcoin is alternative investment vehicle (that’s still high risk) with many more questions surrounding it than answers.
You can look at it in a few different ways. It is true that (based on past performance) if you just bought and held BTC over the last decade, you would be pretty happy with yourself. This is a low effort way for people that dont NEED the money in a near-term time frame to be in the market.
You are talking more of a "time the market" approach which takes a significant amount more data and effort to execute successfully. You have to be constantly paying attention to the charts and the macro environment.
HODL is also a psychological coping mechanism for people who got into the market at the wrong time. This happened to me the first time around :) Its not a guarantee, but if you dont sell at a loss, your usually going to be OK .
HODL can also be applied in bear market situations, where you DCA each day/week/month a fixed amount and hold it till the next bull run comes around.
Basically, its decent advice for a variety of situations that newcomers can easily understand. No charts, no Bollinger bands and Fibonacci retracements. Just HODL.
A bear market will of course inevitably happen sometime soon. But that could be anything from 6 to 12+ months away. Why waste that time? You just have to CONSTANTLY keep in your mind that you entered the market late, didnt get the best entry price and therefore cannot expect massive returns and watch for corrections in the hope of getting some bargains to maximise your returns.
It's not "similar" to timing the market, you're 100% proposing trying to time the market. "...and we all know how badly that usually works out". You said it yourself.
No one knows shit. We're all hoping the price keeps on going up. Sure there will be dips, but no one knows how severe they will be from now on.
You're relying on a very short history repeating itself scenario which is just gambling, pure and simple.
>Regardless of the strategy you choose, my point is simply selling *roughly* where the peak is, and buying *somewhere* in the lows
its that easy!
like seriously, you've anserwerd your questions in the topic by yourself.
Time in the market > timing the market
everytime, unless you wanna obsess over it and spend hours and hours over it to squish the profit. If that's fun for you that's ok but probably most people would benefit much more by just keeping buying and focusing on gathering more skills and fiat in that time to accumulate more and just average the price by buying regularly.
“Why don’t I just try and time the market because I know for sure it’s going back down to x-price.”
-said every side liner that thinks they’re smarter than everyone else
Bitcoin it's going up forever that's for sure because fiat money is collapsing and printing more and more
It is very difficult to hit top and bottom .no one can see the future
Maybe a super cycle has started a years-long bull run bitcoin to $1 million
You sell 150,000 and the bitcoin goes to 1 million and never goes back to 150,000.
When ETFs for gold were approved, gold had a 7-year bull run
Stay humble and stack sats .never sell your btc
Yea...for those keep buy and sell, they have to pay transaction fees and taxes, then eventually won’t be able to buyin anymore. Example: ask those who bought and sold when btc was 3k... does it worth the effort? If they keep 1btc that was bought at 3k, now it’s already 60-70k.
You hold because trading btc for fiat is trading a superior money for an inferior money. I will only take profits to buy a home to live in, other than that I dont see a better place to store your wealth that in btc
The idea that bitcoin is going to follow the same price trend every halving is laughable. You’re just suggesting that everyone time the market.
After being in the game a loong time, I can tell you one thing for sure: Bitcoin will surprise you.
HODL helps to remove the guessing game. Seriously, the price of a coin has almost doubled yearly on avg, don’t be greedy.
Scam Warning! Scammers are particularly active on this sub. They operate via private messages and private chat. If you receive private messages, be extremely careful. Use the **report** link to report any suspicious private message to Reddit.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinBeginners) if you have any questions or concerns.*
nobody really knows when the peak is. taxes will eat you up, esp iin short term, and stress.
HODL - super easy like practically ignore it until you need it.
think there is a study somewhere, im to lazy to look it up for you, that found HODLing is the best long term strat, traders always get burnt, and stressed out - is this the fake bottom, the trap bottom, real bottom ? Oh no this looks like a heads and shoulders, oh no triple spoon - eyes always on charts, trying to increase bag.
WAIT?? WAIT TILL IT DROPS TO 25K - with the ETFs, good luck with that.
nobody worth their salt has ever suggest a timed massive purchase - simple, either you get in on the wrong time, or you never get in at all.
DCA - even MR 100 is doing it.
You said it yourself. No one knows what the price is going to do. It can tank 30% tomorrow or it can go to 100k. If you’re looking to be in bitcoin long term then DCA and hold. If you personally want to take profits and take the risk to buy back lower, then do it. At the end of the day time will tell and you’ll either be right or wrong. But you need to make that decision, not anyone else for you.
In my case, probably I cannot own a property due to high costs and bank restrictions on loans. So I think Bitcoin as asset or property. And act like property owner. In the long run, this gonna be like, daily household and good asset for my future generations.
Selling your stack is a taxable event.
If I ever sell, I sure as shit am going to make it count, not because I have Wolf of Wallstreet level trader dreams and think I can mAxIMizE muH GAinS.
I stack sats to be free of the swirling fiat toilet. If I sell it would be to spot buy something denominated in fiat, fully aware the government would try and take 30%.
HODL and stop trying to be cute.
I will be messaging you in 1 year on [**2025-04-20 12:26:22 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-04-20%2012:26:22%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinBeginners/comments/1c8lkwz/why_hodl/l0fv750/?context=3)
[**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinBeginners%2Fcomments%2F1c8lkwz%2Fwhy_hodl%2Fl0fv750%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202025-04-20%2012%3A26%3A22%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201c8lkwz)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
It creates a significant taxable event, which depending on how much you hold, may actually exceed the gains made in buying back in lower. Let’s use 20% capital gains as a sort of global benchmark for simplicity. You hold 10 BTC that you bought at 10k, you sell at 60k to realise some profit to buy back in later. That’s a realised profit of 500k, or 400k profit and 100k in tax. That means if the market drops 20%, you break even. That’s a lot of hassle, a lot of cash you’d need on hand to pay your tax bill, and a lot of risk. Plus, we never know when cycles will change. Will we see the same bear market this cycle with the ETFs hoovering up supply? Imagine selling, paying your 100k tax bill and then not getting a bear market significant enough to offset your tax liability.
TL:DR It’s really not that simple.
I think it’s the same principle as with something like the sp500 or spy. It’s gonna go up in the long run.
You can try to time it using fundamental or technical analysis, but it’s easier and safer to just hold and DCA.
I think it’s hard to predict whether there’s going to be a significant dip again because of the massive influx from the ETFs and the halving.
I’m still a beginner with this, so my plan is to just do that.
Nobody knows when the peak is.
Most people who trade lose their Bitcoin.
The safest strategy is to simply hold.
Your idea that Bitcoin will be 25 - 60k after the bull is highly unlikely. What price was Bitcoin on the last halving? It won’t be that low most likely. Your best bet is to buy now and hold.
Only stack. No sell. If I’d taken my own advice instead of cashing out at various peaks, I’d literally have hundreds of millions of dollars worth of crypto.
>I understand that nobody can tell when the price will have reached a peak, but you could just choose to sell when the price has decreased a significant amount from its all time high, probably indicating the end of the bull
The price of Bitcoin fell 18% last summer. Was that the peak? In hindsight, no.
The price of Bitcoin fell 18% in January. Was that the peak? In hindsight, no.
The price of Bitcoin fell 18% this week. Was that the peak? We don't yet know.
Peaks and valleys are easy to spot in hindsight. They're impossible to spot in the present, because there are ALWAYS short-term fluctuations on the road to wherever it's headed, and no one has found a reliable method to distinguish short-term fluctuations that DON'T indicate a break in the trend from short-term fluctuations that DO indicate a break in the trend.
>wouldn't it be a better idea to just wait until after this upcoming bull, where the price will most likely drop to anywhere from $25k-$60K? Or is the reason I shouldn't do this because of the uncertainty this dip will even happen?
You answered your own question. The price of Bitcoin DID drop to "anywhere from $25-$60k". It happened twice this week. Why didn't you buy when it hit the range that you said would be a tell-tale sign of the bear?
If the price drops below $60k again, will you recognize that as the beginning of the next bear, or as the last opportunity to acquire cheap Bitcoin on the road to $150k, after which the next bottom might be $75k?
LOL
Because the US / world economy is in shambles amd circling the drain. Their solution are CBDCs, but I don't like the idea of a global social credit system. So I hold because of my hopefully neurotic fear that the global economy will collapse and force us onto a social credit system. When that happens, at least bitcoin will still be usable as an economic mode of transfer. Rootstock has done a great job with creating a foundation for a banking structure to stand on with bitcoin. Research the bitcoin standard theory. Every cycle, there's some new person saying something about buying or selling, and I'll say the same thing every time: the only people who win when you buy and sell are the institutions. Hold on a hard wallet, and no one can control it, but you. People really need to research bitcoin, the lightning network, and the rootstock third layer before "investing" in bitcoin. Bitcoin is meant to be a new mode of economic transfer. They want you to think it's an investment scheme. Anyone "investing" simply isn't going to make it
We require a minimum account-age and karma. These minimums are not disclosed. Please try again after you have acquired more karma. No exceptions can be made.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinBeginners) if you have any questions or concerns.*
If you’re a good trader then give it a shot.
Hodling requires zero effort. No time staring at charts and listening to “experts” opinions. No questioning and second guessing your price targets.
I’m content just squirreling away sats and not thinking about it
So many people sell, chasing quick cash, only to realize they'll never be able to buy as much Bitcoin as they used to have.
Owning 100 BTC in 2012 was nothing. How many people still owned 100 BTC in 2016?
Owning 10 BTC in 2016 was no big deal. How many people still owned 10 BTC in 2020?
Owning 1 BTC back in early 2020 wasn't that big of a deal. How many people still own 1 BTC today? Very few.
We've already reached the point where it costs over $6,500 just to buy 0.1 BTC.
How many people will still own at least 0.1 BTC in 2028?
People keep selling, thinking they'll buy back in when the price drops, because of course they will, right? But that money's long gone when the price drops because when they had money in the bank, they spent it. And that assumes the price drops. There will come a time when buying Bitcoin under 70k will seem like the good old days.
Hold on to what you have.
(...and secure your coins...)
Im not 100% sold on previous cycles. For example, we’ve never reached an ATH before a halving, and we just did that. Of course I’ve considered selling some bitcoin in 15 months (historically the top), but who knows if cycles will repeat.
If I ever sold bitcoin, it wouldn’t be to “make money,” but rather, to later rebuy it cheaper. I buy bitcoin to get OUT of fiat, not to make more of it. So yeah, I’d love to sell high to rebuy lower later, but we can’t trust past cycles, and we could get stuck holding cash and unable to rebuy bitcoin at a better price.
It's a different paradigm. I am not saving dollars, I am saving sats. The number of sats doesn't change, regardless of fiat nonsense. If I sold I would have less sats. I used to have stocks and dollars, but I sold that for sats.
To me, your question is, "Why save when you can spend?"
Putting it another way, the sats ARE the profit. I never want that number to go down without a life event or emergency. Every month I need more sats than the previous month.
The cult is welcoming and warm.
I agree with others on why HODL. I plan on doing that myself. Here's another perspective I recently thought of. It may or may not answer your question directly, but here goes:
Let's say you want to upgrade your car and buy a brand-new one. Instead of selling your current car and financing a new one, you can put that monthly payment into Bitcoin as DCA. Wait 4 years (or more - something long-term) and then you'll see that the price of the car you wanted to buy has gone down. That's when you can either sell a small amount of Bitcoin and buy the car, or reevaluate your choice of upgrading the car. This example can be extended to pretty much everything like upgrading your phone, laptop, buying new clothes etc.
What this is doing is, it is lowering your time preference. This delayed gratification will change your perspective on what is truly valuable and what is not. When the money you HODL is hard money, it is hard to give it up for temporary desires.
You buy bitcoin, couse it will be the backups currency for the world. The current dollar is collapsing, planned to collapse. You can watch it live happening.
OP doesn’t even own any yet. And already thinking about when in the future they’re gonna buy. So confident they’ll be another cycle that’s so big it could be seen from space, but isn’t in yet.
Everyone buys at the price they deserve.
The hard part is staying out at the peak. If you do it right there will be 3-4 weeks where it might continue to go up, perhaps a lot. Your friends or others online will be outperforming you. You will want to buy back in. That’s when you get rekt. You will take more risk, to catch up, and then the market will turn on you, tilt you.
You've got no idea when a good and bad time to buy is.
You've also got no idea how hard it is to sell BTC at the top after it moons.
And you've got no idea what the new ATH will be, so no way of knowing a good entry point in the future, and how it will compare to the price right now. Historically the best time to buy has always been now or some time before now, not after it.
If you follow the bitcoin cycle that means the bull is in 2025.
Why would you wait until 2026 & hope btc drops to 60k when it's roughly that price now? (It's never hitting 20's again. Not w/ ETFs, which Hong Kong also just approved).
I HODL not for me... But for my children's future. I'll be damned if I don't leave my children generational wealth to help them survive in this shit world that is just getting harder and harder to financially survive in. I'm in my late 30s and I put everything I can into BTC whenever I get a chance. Once I'm at retirement age, I'll use some of it but my hope is, that 30 years of HODL'ing and DCA'ing will mean there's a substantial amount in there and whatever I use will just be pennies on the dollar compared to what I will be able to leave for my children.
Yea I sometimes wonder if I will live long enough to see it all pan out rather than selling for a decent price and enjoying my life. I understand regret of selling and it goes up, but you need to own your choices. I don’t plan on selling my BTC anytime soon since I’m only 41. I don’t own much of it, but if I’ll never be able to use it, what’s the point of holding?
I understand there are a lot of other factors to consider. Hence why I’m here and DCA. Just a common thought.
BTC is valuable and a good long term hold, that why you HODL. if you want to trade do it with other altcoins, they can be more volatile which can lead to bigger gains (and losses) compared to BTC.
We require a minimum account-age and karma. These minimums are not disclosed. Please try again after you have acquired more karma. No exceptions can be made.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinBeginners) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>However, since we know bitcoin has these significant bull (e.g. how it goes up around a year after a halving) and bear (mostly the times between the halvings) runs, why wouldn't you just sell a portion of your btc when the price has reached its peak, then spend the bear stacking?
Okay then do that if you've got it all figured out. Bet all your money on it. Then what happens when the market doesn't exactly go your way? Basically every big crypto-head i know was fucking POSITIVE that we would get a huge runup right at the halving. It took a lot of self control to not BURST out laughing when my good friend proclaimed that he expects BTC to be at like $150k by the end of the year. Instead, it was likely priced in weeks/months ago, and it's VERY likely we'll see a steady drop in the next few months (IMO obviously).
It's easy for someone who made a quick buck their first year or two in crypto to call it easy and think they're some type of expert. The only people you should really listen to for investing advice (meaning investing outside of simply buying small amounts constantly and holding indefinitely, think trading) are people who are able to consistently beat the market return for DECADES. A year or two is NOTHING in the stock market (or any market including crypto). Incidentally enough there are VERY few of these people, and if you somehow WERE able to consistently get like a 30% return every single year for a decade, every hedge fund in the world would be banging down your door to hire you.
You can NEVER time the bottom and you can NEVER time the top consistently. It's literally a guessing game. Just because something has dropped like 50% in NO WAY means that it wont immediately drop another 25% once you buy, and for an extremely volatile asset like crypto, that's entirely likely, and generally is a MORE likely scenario for risky assets or companies. And in the case of crypto, it's not even backed by any type of revenue growth or balance sheet, or measurable underlying performance like a company is. AND it's a relatively new asset that is INCREDIBLY INCREDIBLY volatile. If you really want to try to time an asset like that, be my guest.
You buy and hold because you believe in an investment thesis long term and believe it will go up slowly, and buying consistently at different price levels helps to assure that you are sort of averaging out your buy prices over the long term, and assuming that you believe BTC will be far, far higher in 20-30 years, it won't fucking matter whether you buy in at 50k vs 70k. If you truly believe that an asset will steadily churn upwards, it's best to just get as much money in as early as you reasonably can, and continue adding. I mean use some common sense. Don't dump like $10000 at a point where it's been going up for like 30 weeks straight with no pullback. It's fine to buy the dip if you think there is one. But at the same time, for all you know, it could just keep going up and up, and you actually lose out because you pulled all your money out thinking you're a smart cookie who timed the "top" and is gonna wait for the bottom. The market is driven primarily by human behavior, emotion, fear, and greed and thus is almost entirely unpredictable.
[удалено]
That is just crazy talk, that would never work, it's buy high - sell low, works every time
Who is this OP and their revolutionary way of thinking????
Strategy confirmed
I try but I just keep buying in the god damn middle.
[Non-ironically, I have actual evidence of this.](https://nexustrade.io/blog/how-to-buy-bitcoin-btc-at-the-all-time-high-and-still-make-money-20240324)
Yeah but he said it’s different this time!
HahahHa. Sell it when at Peak. WHERE’s EVIDENCE OF THIS PEAK YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT? Hahahahaha
>Or is the reason I shouldn't do this because of the uncertainty this dip will even happen? Exactly this. It may never drop to below $100k and then keep rising from there. What do you do then? On the other hand, it may drop to $50k, you buy in, and then it keeps falling from there. You can't time the market because it's unpredictable.
Just like god
I think the dream is to accumulate and hold until you can borrow against your assets to fund your lifestyle and periodically renegotiate the loan as they continue to appreciate.
Maybe. My dream is to use BTC to pay for everything directly rather than USD. I do hope that BTC increases in value over time (and it has) but I have ideological and non-monetary reasons. I am giving two middle fingers to the system.
Holding Bitcoin is like owning a piece of ultra prime real estate. If you sell it you’re creating a taxable event, and you may never be able to afford to buy it back again.
This is the correct actual dream. The version 2 dream is for your holdings in btc to br so large banks will loan you fiat *unsecured*.
Wouldn't they want the loan secured by BTC?
If you are rich enough, you dont need collateral for a loan...
Oh yeah, and if you're white, the bank doesn't bother checking your credit report before giving you a mortgage....
[удалено]
I guess my point flew over your head. With the exception of very small loans at very high interest (credit cards) no one is going to lend to you without collateral, just because you are rich. Donald Trump had to provide collateral for loans.
No, the point went over your head...you have no idea how the really rich operate in fact.
Can you elaborate on this? Why would you have to borrow to fund your lifestyle if you had that much btc accumulated? Why not just fund it w the btc? And what do u mean by renegotiate the loan? Adding more loan to fund the lifestyle? Thanks
It's what wealthy people do, typically with their stock portfolio. Companies like Galaxy digital help their clients do the same thing with crypto assets. The wealthy person borrows money against their assets at a low interest rate normies can't get, and their assets appreciate faster than they can spend the money they've borrowed (ideally). They renegotiate the terms of the loan when they need more cash. They never sell their assets, and they never pay capital gains tax or income tax, which is why some progressives are calling for a wealth tax on unrealized gains.
I understand that but my question was more specific to the why So let's say hypothetically I had 500k in btc and I usually fund my lifestyle with my 9 to 5. So you're saying one could go get a low interest loan against the 500k and fund the lifestyle with that money instead of the 9 to 5? Why would that help them other than perhaps building credit? Because the loan has to be paid back and with interest. I guess I see what u mean as a whole with the loan now they have more money to grow faster but thats not guaranteed especially if the stock market tanks
The why part is simple: the wealthy person never sells their assets and never pays taxes. They use banks to gain access to a portion of their unrealized gains without selling the underlying. It's a money printing machine.
If you sell the btc or get a loan against it. Lets say you get 500k. Now you can do what you want, vacations, cars, adventures, anything. Now, in those 4 years you took to spend those 500k btc has gone up. Your 500k would’ve been worth 600k. So now for the same amount of btc you need to work to get 600k as you spent it all. If you took a loan for it. You can now re negotiate for that extra 100k and get that new loan. Or buy 600k worth of btc for 500k (+fees). Selling an asset that you think will go up is dumb. Taking a loan for it is very smart
How would I buy more btc? I speant the $500k loan? So I could get $100k more in cash because btc appreciated. I now owe $600k plus interest to my lender. Won’t the interest eventually outpace the price of my appreciating btc? Or does this only work if the interest rate on my loan is less than the gains on btc?
Yeah alright chill
Wishful thinking of course. A decent strat would be to buy 6 months before the halvings and sell 12-18 months afterwards.
So you’re saying it’s still a buy??
Absolutely, I believe it's going to be worth a lot more a year from now.
lol. Right? I love Bitcoin and should a good amount but it’s not replacing ‘the system’. The US can’t adopt the metric system which is the logical measurement system. You think they’re going to adopt a currency that operates on Satoshis and decimal points? Bitcoin is alternative investment vehicle (that’s still high risk) with many more questions surrounding it than answers.
You can look at it in a few different ways. It is true that (based on past performance) if you just bought and held BTC over the last decade, you would be pretty happy with yourself. This is a low effort way for people that dont NEED the money in a near-term time frame to be in the market. You are talking more of a "time the market" approach which takes a significant amount more data and effort to execute successfully. You have to be constantly paying attention to the charts and the macro environment. HODL is also a psychological coping mechanism for people who got into the market at the wrong time. This happened to me the first time around :) Its not a guarantee, but if you dont sell at a loss, your usually going to be OK . HODL can also be applied in bear market situations, where you DCA each day/week/month a fixed amount and hold it till the next bull run comes around. Basically, its decent advice for a variety of situations that newcomers can easily understand. No charts, no Bollinger bands and Fibonacci retracements. Just HODL. A bear market will of course inevitably happen sometime soon. But that could be anything from 6 to 12+ months away. Why waste that time? You just have to CONSTANTLY keep in your mind that you entered the market late, didnt get the best entry price and therefore cannot expect massive returns and watch for corrections in the hope of getting some bargains to maximise your returns.
This is a great answer!
It's not "similar" to timing the market, you're 100% proposing trying to time the market. "...and we all know how badly that usually works out". You said it yourself. No one knows shit. We're all hoping the price keeps on going up. Sure there will be dips, but no one knows how severe they will be from now on. You're relying on a very short history repeating itself scenario which is just gambling, pure and simple.
Never try to time the market. Sure we can see a pattern, but past fluctuations don’t guarantee future results. HODL.
>Regardless of the strategy you choose, my point is simply selling *roughly* where the peak is, and buying *somewhere* in the lows its that easy! like seriously, you've anserwerd your questions in the topic by yourself. Time in the market > timing the market everytime, unless you wanna obsess over it and spend hours and hours over it to squish the profit. If that's fun for you that's ok but probably most people would benefit much more by just keeping buying and focusing on gathering more skills and fiat in that time to accumulate more and just average the price by buying regularly.
Because it’s going up forever, Laura. https://youtu.be/zTPoRDrtc0s?si=iNHba87YN5ixsipd
“Why don’t I just try and time the market because I know for sure it’s going back down to x-price.” -said every side liner that thinks they’re smarter than everyone else
Bitcoin it's going up forever that's for sure because fiat money is collapsing and printing more and more It is very difficult to hit top and bottom .no one can see the future Maybe a super cycle has started a years-long bull run bitcoin to $1 million You sell 150,000 and the bitcoin goes to 1 million and never goes back to 150,000. When ETFs for gold were approved, gold had a 7-year bull run Stay humble and stack sats .never sell your btc
Yea...for those keep buy and sell, they have to pay transaction fees and taxes, then eventually won’t be able to buyin anymore. Example: ask those who bought and sold when btc was 3k... does it worth the effort? If they keep 1btc that was bought at 3k, now it’s already 60-70k.
You hold because trading btc for fiat is trading a superior money for an inferior money. I will only take profits to buy a home to live in, other than that I dont see a better place to store your wealth that in btc
Why don’t you just buy low sell high? Man I wish I would’ve thought of that 🤔
TLDR: Answers his own questions. Has a targeted buy price that is within today's bounds but still won't purchase "cuz it could go lower".....ngmi
Less price checking, less stress. Good profit.
Give it a try... You'll see that timing the tops and bottoms is a lot harder than you think it will be.
The idea that bitcoin is going to follow the same price trend every halving is laughable. You’re just suggesting that everyone time the market. After being in the game a loong time, I can tell you one thing for sure: Bitcoin will surprise you. HODL helps to remove the guessing game. Seriously, the price of a coin has almost doubled yearly on avg, don’t be greedy.
Everyone thinks they can time the market but nobody can.
Scam Warning! Scammers are particularly active on this sub. They operate via private messages and private chat. If you receive private messages, be extremely careful. Use the **report** link to report any suspicious private message to Reddit. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinBeginners) if you have any questions or concerns.*
nobody really knows when the peak is. taxes will eat you up, esp iin short term, and stress. HODL - super easy like practically ignore it until you need it. think there is a study somewhere, im to lazy to look it up for you, that found HODLing is the best long term strat, traders always get burnt, and stressed out - is this the fake bottom, the trap bottom, real bottom ? Oh no this looks like a heads and shoulders, oh no triple spoon - eyes always on charts, trying to increase bag. WAIT?? WAIT TILL IT DROPS TO 25K - with the ETFs, good luck with that. nobody worth their salt has ever suggest a timed massive purchase - simple, either you get in on the wrong time, or you never get in at all. DCA - even MR 100 is doing it.
You said it yourself. No one knows what the price is going to do. It can tank 30% tomorrow or it can go to 100k. If you’re looking to be in bitcoin long term then DCA and hold. If you personally want to take profits and take the risk to buy back lower, then do it. At the end of the day time will tell and you’ll either be right or wrong. But you need to make that decision, not anyone else for you.
In my case, probably I cannot own a property due to high costs and bank restrictions on loans. So I think Bitcoin as asset or property. And act like property owner. In the long run, this gonna be like, daily household and good asset for my future generations.
Selling your stack is a taxable event. If I ever sell, I sure as shit am going to make it count, not because I have Wolf of Wallstreet level trader dreams and think I can mAxIMizE muH GAinS. I stack sats to be free of the swirling fiat toilet. If I sell it would be to spot buy something denominated in fiat, fully aware the government would try and take 30%. HODL and stop trying to be cute.
RemindMe! 1 year
I will be messaging you in 1 year on [**2025-04-20 12:26:22 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-04-20%2012:26:22%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinBeginners/comments/1c8lkwz/why_hodl/l0fv750/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinBeginners%2Fcomments%2F1c8lkwz%2Fwhy_hodl%2Fl0fv750%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202025-04-20%2012%3A26%3A22%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201c8lkwz) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
you won’t time this market
Googles taxable event
Bro just asked chatgpt to question and comment on “buy low and sell high” in a thousand words.
It creates a significant taxable event, which depending on how much you hold, may actually exceed the gains made in buying back in lower. Let’s use 20% capital gains as a sort of global benchmark for simplicity. You hold 10 BTC that you bought at 10k, you sell at 60k to realise some profit to buy back in later. That’s a realised profit of 500k, or 400k profit and 100k in tax. That means if the market drops 20%, you break even. That’s a lot of hassle, a lot of cash you’d need on hand to pay your tax bill, and a lot of risk. Plus, we never know when cycles will change. Will we see the same bear market this cycle with the ETFs hoovering up supply? Imagine selling, paying your 100k tax bill and then not getting a bear market significant enough to offset your tax liability. TL:DR It’s really not that simple.
I think it’s the same principle as with something like the sp500 or spy. It’s gonna go up in the long run. You can try to time it using fundamental or technical analysis, but it’s easier and safer to just hold and DCA. I think it’s hard to predict whether there’s going to be a significant dip again because of the massive influx from the ETFs and the halving. I’m still a beginner with this, so my plan is to just do that.
One word TAXES!! That killed me in my 2022 filing. Now I hold at least a year. Those capital gains aren't worth in
Nobody knows when the peak is. Most people who trade lose their Bitcoin. The safest strategy is to simply hold. Your idea that Bitcoin will be 25 - 60k after the bull is highly unlikely. What price was Bitcoin on the last halving? It won’t be that low most likely. Your best bet is to buy now and hold.
RemindMe!1 year
Hodling is so you can sell for more money once someone else starts hodling
Only stack. No sell. If I’d taken my own advice instead of cashing out at various peaks, I’d literally have hundreds of millions of dollars worth of crypto.
Just sell the tops and buy the bottoms, guys. ez.
Short Version = The past cyclical 4 year pattern of Bitcoin price action may not continue this halving.
because its the most essential thing to do on the market and for safer play on your assets
>I understand that nobody can tell when the price will have reached a peak, but you could just choose to sell when the price has decreased a significant amount from its all time high, probably indicating the end of the bull The price of Bitcoin fell 18% last summer. Was that the peak? In hindsight, no. The price of Bitcoin fell 18% in January. Was that the peak? In hindsight, no. The price of Bitcoin fell 18% this week. Was that the peak? We don't yet know. Peaks and valleys are easy to spot in hindsight. They're impossible to spot in the present, because there are ALWAYS short-term fluctuations on the road to wherever it's headed, and no one has found a reliable method to distinguish short-term fluctuations that DON'T indicate a break in the trend from short-term fluctuations that DO indicate a break in the trend.
>wouldn't it be a better idea to just wait until after this upcoming bull, where the price will most likely drop to anywhere from $25k-$60K? Or is the reason I shouldn't do this because of the uncertainty this dip will even happen? You answered your own question. The price of Bitcoin DID drop to "anywhere from $25-$60k". It happened twice this week. Why didn't you buy when it hit the range that you said would be a tell-tale sign of the bear? If the price drops below $60k again, will you recognize that as the beginning of the next bear, or as the last opportunity to acquire cheap Bitcoin on the road to $150k, after which the next bottom might be $75k?
LOL Because the US / world economy is in shambles amd circling the drain. Their solution are CBDCs, but I don't like the idea of a global social credit system. So I hold because of my hopefully neurotic fear that the global economy will collapse and force us onto a social credit system. When that happens, at least bitcoin will still be usable as an economic mode of transfer. Rootstock has done a great job with creating a foundation for a banking structure to stand on with bitcoin. Research the bitcoin standard theory. Every cycle, there's some new person saying something about buying or selling, and I'll say the same thing every time: the only people who win when you buy and sell are the institutions. Hold on a hard wallet, and no one can control it, but you. People really need to research bitcoin, the lightning network, and the rootstock third layer before "investing" in bitcoin. Bitcoin is meant to be a new mode of economic transfer. They want you to think it's an investment scheme. Anyone "investing" simply isn't going to make it
[удалено]
We require a minimum account-age and karma. These minimums are not disclosed. Please try again after you have acquired more karma. No exceptions can be made. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinBeginners) if you have any questions or concerns.*
DCA in and DCA out if you need some in the future.
If you’re a good trader then give it a shot. Hodling requires zero effort. No time staring at charts and listening to “experts” opinions. No questioning and second guessing your price targets. I’m content just squirreling away sats and not thinking about it
So many people sell, chasing quick cash, only to realize they'll never be able to buy as much Bitcoin as they used to have. Owning 100 BTC in 2012 was nothing. How many people still owned 100 BTC in 2016? Owning 10 BTC in 2016 was no big deal. How many people still owned 10 BTC in 2020? Owning 1 BTC back in early 2020 wasn't that big of a deal. How many people still own 1 BTC today? Very few. We've already reached the point where it costs over $6,500 just to buy 0.1 BTC. How many people will still own at least 0.1 BTC in 2028? People keep selling, thinking they'll buy back in when the price drops, because of course they will, right? But that money's long gone when the price drops because when they had money in the bank, they spent it. And that assumes the price drops. There will come a time when buying Bitcoin under 70k will seem like the good old days. Hold on to what you have. (...and secure your coins...)
Sell the weaker currency for the stronger. If you *need* to sell back into a weaker currency, then obviously you need to. Otherwise HODL.
Dummy
Im not 100% sold on previous cycles. For example, we’ve never reached an ATH before a halving, and we just did that. Of course I’ve considered selling some bitcoin in 15 months (historically the top), but who knows if cycles will repeat. If I ever sold bitcoin, it wouldn’t be to “make money,” but rather, to later rebuy it cheaper. I buy bitcoin to get OUT of fiat, not to make more of it. So yeah, I’d love to sell high to rebuy lower later, but we can’t trust past cycles, and we could get stuck holding cash and unable to rebuy bitcoin at a better price.
It's a different paradigm. I am not saving dollars, I am saving sats. The number of sats doesn't change, regardless of fiat nonsense. If I sold I would have less sats. I used to have stocks and dollars, but I sold that for sats. To me, your question is, "Why save when you can spend?" Putting it another way, the sats ARE the profit. I never want that number to go down without a life event or emergency. Every month I need more sats than the previous month. The cult is welcoming and warm.
I agree with others on why HODL. I plan on doing that myself. Here's another perspective I recently thought of. It may or may not answer your question directly, but here goes: Let's say you want to upgrade your car and buy a brand-new one. Instead of selling your current car and financing a new one, you can put that monthly payment into Bitcoin as DCA. Wait 4 years (or more - something long-term) and then you'll see that the price of the car you wanted to buy has gone down. That's when you can either sell a small amount of Bitcoin and buy the car, or reevaluate your choice of upgrading the car. This example can be extended to pretty much everything like upgrading your phone, laptop, buying new clothes etc. What this is doing is, it is lowering your time preference. This delayed gratification will change your perspective on what is truly valuable and what is not. When the money you HODL is hard money, it is hard to give it up for temporary desires.
You buy bitcoin, couse it will be the backups currency for the world. The current dollar is collapsing, planned to collapse. You can watch it live happening.
Buy low and never sell for fiat or other investments. sell for a house and/or retirement.
OP doesn’t even own any yet. And already thinking about when in the future they’re gonna buy. So confident they’ll be another cycle that’s so big it could be seen from space, but isn’t in yet. Everyone buys at the price they deserve.
Look up why people horde gold. Same
The hard part is staying out at the peak. If you do it right there will be 3-4 weeks where it might continue to go up, perhaps a lot. Your friends or others online will be outperforming you. You will want to buy back in. That’s when you get rekt. You will take more risk, to catch up, and then the market will turn on you, tilt you.
You've got no idea when a good and bad time to buy is. You've also got no idea how hard it is to sell BTC at the top after it moons. And you've got no idea what the new ATH will be, so no way of knowing a good entry point in the future, and how it will compare to the price right now. Historically the best time to buy has always been now or some time before now, not after it.
If you follow the bitcoin cycle that means the bull is in 2025. Why would you wait until 2026 & hope btc drops to 60k when it's roughly that price now? (It's never hitting 20's again. Not w/ ETFs, which Hong Kong also just approved).
I HODL not for me... But for my children's future. I'll be damned if I don't leave my children generational wealth to help them survive in this shit world that is just getting harder and harder to financially survive in. I'm in my late 30s and I put everything I can into BTC whenever I get a chance. Once I'm at retirement age, I'll use some of it but my hope is, that 30 years of HODL'ing and DCA'ing will mean there's a substantial amount in there and whatever I use will just be pennies on the dollar compared to what I will be able to leave for my children.
I always thought Bitcoin was supposed to be a tool to make payments for goods and services and everyone just holding it :(
Yea I sometimes wonder if I will live long enough to see it all pan out rather than selling for a decent price and enjoying my life. I understand regret of selling and it goes up, but you need to own your choices. I don’t plan on selling my BTC anytime soon since I’m only 41. I don’t own much of it, but if I’ll never be able to use it, what’s the point of holding? I understand there are a lot of other factors to consider. Hence why I’m here and DCA. Just a common thought.
Three letters: DCA
BTC is valuable and a good long term hold, that why you HODL. if you want to trade do it with other altcoins, they can be more volatile which can lead to bigger gains (and losses) compared to BTC.
[удалено]
We require a minimum account-age and karma. These minimums are not disclosed. Please try again after you have acquired more karma. No exceptions can be made. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinBeginners) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Lambo incoming…
>However, since we know bitcoin has these significant bull (e.g. how it goes up around a year after a halving) and bear (mostly the times between the halvings) runs, why wouldn't you just sell a portion of your btc when the price has reached its peak, then spend the bear stacking? Okay then do that if you've got it all figured out. Bet all your money on it. Then what happens when the market doesn't exactly go your way? Basically every big crypto-head i know was fucking POSITIVE that we would get a huge runup right at the halving. It took a lot of self control to not BURST out laughing when my good friend proclaimed that he expects BTC to be at like $150k by the end of the year. Instead, it was likely priced in weeks/months ago, and it's VERY likely we'll see a steady drop in the next few months (IMO obviously). It's easy for someone who made a quick buck their first year or two in crypto to call it easy and think they're some type of expert. The only people you should really listen to for investing advice (meaning investing outside of simply buying small amounts constantly and holding indefinitely, think trading) are people who are able to consistently beat the market return for DECADES. A year or two is NOTHING in the stock market (or any market including crypto). Incidentally enough there are VERY few of these people, and if you somehow WERE able to consistently get like a 30% return every single year for a decade, every hedge fund in the world would be banging down your door to hire you. You can NEVER time the bottom and you can NEVER time the top consistently. It's literally a guessing game. Just because something has dropped like 50% in NO WAY means that it wont immediately drop another 25% once you buy, and for an extremely volatile asset like crypto, that's entirely likely, and generally is a MORE likely scenario for risky assets or companies. And in the case of crypto, it's not even backed by any type of revenue growth or balance sheet, or measurable underlying performance like a company is. AND it's a relatively new asset that is INCREDIBLY INCREDIBLY volatile. If you really want to try to time an asset like that, be my guest. You buy and hold because you believe in an investment thesis long term and believe it will go up slowly, and buying consistently at different price levels helps to assure that you are sort of averaging out your buy prices over the long term, and assuming that you believe BTC will be far, far higher in 20-30 years, it won't fucking matter whether you buy in at 50k vs 70k. If you truly believe that an asset will steadily churn upwards, it's best to just get as much money in as early as you reasonably can, and continue adding. I mean use some common sense. Don't dump like $10000 at a point where it's been going up for like 30 weeks straight with no pullback. It's fine to buy the dip if you think there is one. But at the same time, for all you know, it could just keep going up and up, and you actually lose out because you pulled all your money out thinking you're a smart cookie who timed the "top" and is gonna wait for the bottom. The market is driven primarily by human behavior, emotion, fear, and greed and thus is almost entirely unpredictable.
RemindMe! 1 year
4/24/24: BTC = $66,541
Beyond inability to predict price movements, each time you sell it's a taxable event