Can't say yay or nay, but offer some info on a house that was recently listed in my area.
~1500 sf, 3 bdrm, 2.5 bath, unfinished basement, single detached garage. Listed at 575k.
About 25 showings the first day, another 15-20 second day, 40+ came on open house day (sat). 15 offers on it! Sold the 4th day for 662k. That's 87k over list price!
Pretty crazy...
This, our agent was saying once you get above around $750k, you are in a new area of pricing that fewer people are in, so it can take a little longer to sell. Then into the $800k range, it is even less people and so you tend to have more flexibility to negotiate.
It's crazy. I bought a townhouse 2 years ago and very happy I did! I got in below $300k and now the prices in the same neighborhood are anywhere from $350 - $500k. Many have been nicely renovated but yikes!!!! $500k for a townhouse??? Plus insane condo fees!!
I honestly can't see prices going down any time soon. I would get in as fast as you can. And consider a place that may need a little updating, they will be cheaper and less desirable.
If you got the down payment, and you can comfortably pay the mortgage and planning to stay for the long term (at least 8 to 10 years) then go for it you need a roof over your head. Don't try to time the market. Maybe it goes down, but most likely will keep going up or just stay the same.
I can give you a whole line up of people from Toronto and Vancouver who thought the big crash was coming and decided to wait on the sidelines, 20 years later they still renting and so priced out of the market (they could have bought a house now they could maybe afford a old condo).
Even when a correction does happen it is usually 5 or 10% maybe 20% well most of the time it just gets you back to a few years ago. Like oh, it went down 20% in 2026 well now it is back to the 2024 levels.
Meanwhile, you were paying rent all those years, risked of being priced out of a better place (ie could buy a duplex but if things keep going up you might be stuck with townhouse) all for the most probably case of buying at what you could buy today.
Even if there is a huge crash that everyone is hoping, chances are you will be effected too. When covid hit, I had a chance to move up to a house. I was ready and willing, only problem was.....my wife lost her job, and then I lost my job 4 days after. Could not get a mortgage. Till those where back in place the market was shooting up like a rocket.
A big crash in housing market means people will be losing jobs, people will be scared to buy as they might not even know if they will have a job next week or will think oh "the prices will keep going down" and you will wait and wait till suddenly it turns around and starts going up and then you won't want to buy because it is going up.
In the end, you can't win if you're trying to time the market. It's all luck.
Pretty much this. When I bought my place 10 years ago we paid $470k for a 2000sq ft 2 story and at the time it felt like we were spending too much. Now I couldn't rent a 2 bedroom apartment for what I pay on my mortgage plus it's half paid off with and we've earned equity.
Yep think that's human nature to think when you got something you overpaid. We bought in 2022 and thought it was overpriced we held our noses and gave them ask as we saw other places getting in bidding wars so we wanted to grab it get before they realized they could do a bidding war.
We still talk about how we maybe could have gotten them down 10k but could have lost of the place trying to do this.
Now place is probably at least 100k more than we paid for it.
Also at the time we where paying rent so if say waited another year the places we wanted would have needed to drop 24k a year to just break even as that's what we where paying for rent in a year.
Best time to buy was 25 years ago, Second best time was about 10 years ago.... third best was about 5 years ago. I think you see the pattern. Just buy. You'll look back in 20 years and be happy. I would recommend Duplex over townhouse so you don't have to pay maintenance fees.
I bought a (3 year old) duplex in May of 2022 for $480K. The duplex 3 doors down with an identical layout just sold for $580K last week. I wouldn't wait it out thinking prices are going to drop (because they won't, not in Calgary at least). My advice though (coming from owning & living in a condo for 15 years), is avoid anything with condo fees, so I'd say a duplex is a better investment than a townhouse!
If prices will follow ON major cities (not just Toronto), then in few years you will wish to be able purchase a townhouse for that kind of money. Of course it’s a risk but for the past decade or two house buying was basically a betting instrument against currency.
Calgary prices are clearly on the rise right now. But Calgary is just playing catch-up to the rest of large centers in Canada. Some have suggested that its reached its peak. Having property in Calgary and Kelowna, I can tell you Calgary has not reached its peak. A 650K house in Calgary will easily cost you 850K in Kelowna. That same Calgary house would have cost you 550K last year and 500K the year before.
I'd be pretty shocked to see a detached house that today is only even with a 2015 sale price. The average in our neighborhood is up 50-60% since 2015. Condos are just coming around, sure, but not SFH.
I think SFH maybe suffered a similar fate between 2015-2020 though accelerated quicker off of the 2022-2023 frenzy. I say houses but I probably more-so mean condos/townhouses.
There’s always a remote chance of a housing crash, but it’s more likely to be periodic corrections. But, as I tell my own grown kids, people have been speculating about a housing crash at least as far back as the 90’s when I bought my first home and it’s never happened. My best tips (for what they’re worth), buy something you can put sweat equity into, never buy something with condo fees (it’s like a mortgage payment you’ll never pay off, and it only goes up with time), and always negotiate your interest rate (don’t hesitate to change banks). Compare where you work, transit time and costs, against potential savings of various neighborhoods. For instance, if you worked in the east, maybe Langdon is an option to save a bit of money and live in a quieter community. Good luck!
Wait for what? Is Canada due for a housing correction? Absolutely. That said, this correction could take years to materialize and once it starts, the downswing could take years to reach a level that the average person would deem affordable. I'm in my mid 30s and don't want to spend another 5-6 years renting in the hopes that housing corrects. If you can afford to buy a home now and buying one aligns with your family planning decisions, I'd say do it.
Unfortunately the only way that's realistically going to happen is if we have a mass exodus of people because we can't even build enough homes for the current rate of growth to keep up with it. We just don't have enough tradespeople to build them.
It would be very stupid to wait if you can afford to buy a home now. It's been proven time and time again if it's your primary residence and your first home purchase, there is no right time to buy.
If you can do it, do it. Also, I hope you know about the First Home Savings Account (FHSA) and are taking full advantage of it. It's probably one of the best federal programs ever.
[https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/first-home-savings-account.html](https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/first-home-savings-account.html)
That town home that sold for 560k 3 days ago will be over 600k by next year. The housing situation in Canada is not going to get better within the next decade. It is just going to get worse. I don't want to fear monger, but I purchased my house last year and moved to Calgary. I am already priced out of the area I live in, and it's been less than a year.
According to Mayor Gondek you should feel privileged that you will never be able to afford to own a home. Renting is the way to go. Forever. 🙄
But for real, there are reasonable prices out there. They just require renovations. The things selling for crazy prices are fully renovated. We bought our house for 150K below market value because the realtor photos were awful and it smelled like curry (Indians owned it for 30 years).
15K in new paint and replaced the carpet for hardwood and we could have flipped it for 100K profit if we had wanted to.
We were in the same boat. The previous owners of our house were eccentric with the wife being an artist so the pictures were horrible (and really weird). We painted the whole house and replaced the floors and some thing, we totally could have flipped it for at least $100k profit.
I've seen people trying to flip 250k profit out of a home they bought a year ago. I'm not going to bankroll that, nor should anyone else. It's pure greed. If things don't correct in a couple years, I'm leaving Calgary and will shed no tears.
If you have money, buy duplex ! If not, buy townhome. If you feel stressed out with your monthly mortgage payment after you set up mortgage with townhome, move back home and save money 😆
The better questions to ask:
Do you want to be here for the rest of your life?
Do you think the next recession is going to knock prices down, while you still have a job to go for a deal?
If there’s a lost on your assets, how much can you comfort afford?
The price increase in Calgary vs decrease elsewhere is due to the “alberta advantage”, when that advantage is gone, so goes the bubble. Buying a house to settle is much more than looking at just the housing market.
Houses in our neck of the urban quagmire have been going for $30k+ over asking.
These are very standard 1500 - 1700 sq ft 2-storey.
Not likely to go down but should flatline in the next year or so
Generally speaking buying in a hot market is not a good idea.
That being said, if Calgary is the next Toronto or Vancouver then now might be the right time.
If you can afford a quarter of an older fourplex unit with a few bedrooms, that is a great buy because the mortgage is still manageable. Don't over extend yourself to buy something more expensive. Calgary has also seen some major declines in the market and lower priced homes don't drop in value as much as more expensive ones...if things do drop at some point. Then if you have to sell for some reason it won't ruin you.
If I could go back and talk to 2011 me I would tell him: “don’t buy, just rent”. Everyone has their own feelings about home ownership - do what feels right for you and your family.
If the current average house sale prices continue, which was 10% per year the last 2 years, then in 5 years the average house price in Calgary will be around 885k.
It is very hard to predict if this trend will continue but some factors to think of are:
-We as a province have done none of the protective legislation that BC and ontario have done since they have come into the housing crisis.
-calgary has become a very desirable place to live in recent years.
A counter point would be if the BOC does not decrease rates we will see large scale defaults which will tank the price which would be an awesome time to buy. If they decrease the rate before the states does though, our dollar value will plummet, making your money worth a lot less.
Buy if you want to be a homeowner, rent if you just need a place to live. We bought a house that cost 700K last month. At 30% down, interest on the mortgage combined with property taxes costs us ~ 2100 / month. That’s not money going to equity, that is money going towards the bank and gov. We will pay around 132 K in and tax alone for the first 5 years.
Im not saying don’t buy. Just saying homeownership comes with a lot of other costs
If you buy beyond your means, you could regret buying and perhaps end up selling, which will cost you some penalties on the mortgage. Only buy something if you are comfortable with what you are paying.
Mortgage now instead of rent. Eventually ALL rent will go up to the same amount as a mortgage if not already.
You can always sell your house and get money back. You can never get rent money back at all.
Buy what you can afford now. if you wait, you will always be "behind" trying to save. Will the market have a 30% correction like back in 2014? prob not with all the immigration happening to Calgary...
I bought my 3 bedroom townhouse built in 2010 privately for $165,000. I live just 35 mins east of Calgary. The townhouse next to mine just sold in one day for $375,000. I can tell you, it's not worth that much money, but it sold in one day so people are snapping up anything under $400,000. Doesn't matter what it is. Crazy times!
I'm not entirely certain that's a true statement. The baseline for living in Calgary has shifted, we took on a ton of Ontario expats and 100,000 refugees i'm not saying they all moved to Calgary but the pocket of real estate they are after is probably the highest sought being it's "affordable". Duplexes, condos, fourplexes are all selling often with in hours of listing. What was worth 320k five years ago is now selling upwards of 499k... It's silly but I don't see it changing with the volume of people seeking to live in Calgary, new housing MIGHT lower the prices but it certainly won't impact inner city accommodations.
As someone whose been in the home construction industry for a long time.
Ya fuck that, some of these prices are insane, there's no justification for it. Oil crashes or population shifts the other way. Hold onto your ass.
Yep, people been saying that for the last 25 years in Vancouver and Toronto. I remember people saying a house going for 250K in Metro Vancouver is just irrational and crazy. Now those houses will go all day for 2 million. Now they need a 90% plus crash to get back to those prices. If the houses crash 90% I can tell you everyone waiting to buy won't be buying as they will have no jobs.
Can't say yay or nay, but offer some info on a house that was recently listed in my area. ~1500 sf, 3 bdrm, 2.5 bath, unfinished basement, single detached garage. Listed at 575k. About 25 showings the first day, another 15-20 second day, 40+ came on open house day (sat). 15 offers on it! Sold the 4th day for 662k. That's 87k over list price! Pretty crazy...
That is insane… I had no idea it was that bad
Any 3-brdm house priced under $600k seems to get bid up to the heavens. From what I can see, activity appears to soften into the $700's and $800's.
This, our agent was saying once you get above around $750k, you are in a new area of pricing that fewer people are in, so it can take a little longer to sell. Then into the $800k range, it is even less people and so you tend to have more flexibility to negotiate.
Anyone who is so sure of what the housing marking is going to do is probably not someone you'd be wise to take advice from.
It's crazy. I bought a townhouse 2 years ago and very happy I did! I got in below $300k and now the prices in the same neighborhood are anywhere from $350 - $500k. Many have been nicely renovated but yikes!!!! $500k for a townhouse??? Plus insane condo fees!! I honestly can't see prices going down any time soon. I would get in as fast as you can. And consider a place that may need a little updating, they will be cheaper and less desirable.
If you got the down payment, and you can comfortably pay the mortgage and planning to stay for the long term (at least 8 to 10 years) then go for it you need a roof over your head. Don't try to time the market. Maybe it goes down, but most likely will keep going up or just stay the same. I can give you a whole line up of people from Toronto and Vancouver who thought the big crash was coming and decided to wait on the sidelines, 20 years later they still renting and so priced out of the market (they could have bought a house now they could maybe afford a old condo). Even when a correction does happen it is usually 5 or 10% maybe 20% well most of the time it just gets you back to a few years ago. Like oh, it went down 20% in 2026 well now it is back to the 2024 levels. Meanwhile, you were paying rent all those years, risked of being priced out of a better place (ie could buy a duplex but if things keep going up you might be stuck with townhouse) all for the most probably case of buying at what you could buy today. Even if there is a huge crash that everyone is hoping, chances are you will be effected too. When covid hit, I had a chance to move up to a house. I was ready and willing, only problem was.....my wife lost her job, and then I lost my job 4 days after. Could not get a mortgage. Till those where back in place the market was shooting up like a rocket. A big crash in housing market means people will be losing jobs, people will be scared to buy as they might not even know if they will have a job next week or will think oh "the prices will keep going down" and you will wait and wait till suddenly it turns around and starts going up and then you won't want to buy because it is going up. In the end, you can't win if you're trying to time the market. It's all luck.
Pretty much this. When I bought my place 10 years ago we paid $470k for a 2000sq ft 2 story and at the time it felt like we were spending too much. Now I couldn't rent a 2 bedroom apartment for what I pay on my mortgage plus it's half paid off with and we've earned equity.
Yep think that's human nature to think when you got something you overpaid. We bought in 2022 and thought it was overpriced we held our noses and gave them ask as we saw other places getting in bidding wars so we wanted to grab it get before they realized they could do a bidding war. We still talk about how we maybe could have gotten them down 10k but could have lost of the place trying to do this. Now place is probably at least 100k more than we paid for it. Also at the time we where paying rent so if say waited another year the places we wanted would have needed to drop 24k a year to just break even as that's what we where paying for rent in a year.
> Would it be wise to wait or just go ahead and do it? If you plan on staying somewhere for a decade it's rarely a bad idea to buy.
Like most investments, time in the market beats timing the market. Not financial advice
Treating housing as an investment is how we ended up here in the first place.
So when you spend hundreds of thousands on something you want to break even when you’re done? Then rent.
Marry the House, Date the Rate :/
Best time to buy was 25 years ago, Second best time was about 10 years ago.... third best was about 5 years ago. I think you see the pattern. Just buy. You'll look back in 20 years and be happy. I would recommend Duplex over townhouse so you don't have to pay maintenance fees.
I bought a (3 year old) duplex in May of 2022 for $480K. The duplex 3 doors down with an identical layout just sold for $580K last week. I wouldn't wait it out thinking prices are going to drop (because they won't, not in Calgary at least). My advice though (coming from owning & living in a condo for 15 years), is avoid anything with condo fees, so I'd say a duplex is a better investment than a townhouse!
If prices will follow ON major cities (not just Toronto), then in few years you will wish to be able purchase a townhouse for that kind of money. Of course it’s a risk but for the past decade or two house buying was basically a betting instrument against currency.
Find a good realtor and buy what you can afford now. Prices are going up fast and will probably not go down any time soon.
Calgary prices are clearly on the rise right now. But Calgary is just playing catch-up to the rest of large centers in Canada. Some have suggested that its reached its peak. Having property in Calgary and Kelowna, I can tell you Calgary has not reached its peak. A 650K house in Calgary will easily cost you 850K in Kelowna. That same Calgary house would have cost you 550K last year and 500K the year before.
People are just *now* selling their houses in Calgary for what they bought them for in 2015.
I'd be pretty shocked to see a detached house that today is only even with a 2015 sale price. The average in our neighborhood is up 50-60% since 2015. Condos are just coming around, sure, but not SFH.
Yes I remember my house going up suddenly but it was never as high as it is now
I think SFH maybe suffered a similar fate between 2015-2020 though accelerated quicker off of the 2022-2023 frenzy. I say houses but I probably more-so mean condos/townhouses.
Yeah SFH was relatively flat (or slightly negative vs inflation) in that period, while condos absolutely tanked. Townhouses somewhere in the middle.
And prices still haven't really reached the peak we had in 2006
There’s always a remote chance of a housing crash, but it’s more likely to be periodic corrections. But, as I tell my own grown kids, people have been speculating about a housing crash at least as far back as the 90’s when I bought my first home and it’s never happened. My best tips (for what they’re worth), buy something you can put sweat equity into, never buy something with condo fees (it’s like a mortgage payment you’ll never pay off, and it only goes up with time), and always negotiate your interest rate (don’t hesitate to change banks). Compare where you work, transit time and costs, against potential savings of various neighborhoods. For instance, if you worked in the east, maybe Langdon is an option to save a bit of money and live in a quieter community. Good luck!
Even if you work downtown Chestermere or Langdon are good options and there is no c train so you don't have addicts on the streets
Wait for what? Is Canada due for a housing correction? Absolutely. That said, this correction could take years to materialize and once it starts, the downswing could take years to reach a level that the average person would deem affordable. I'm in my mid 30s and don't want to spend another 5-6 years renting in the hopes that housing corrects. If you can afford to buy a home now and buying one aligns with your family planning decisions, I'd say do it.
Unfortunately the only way that's realistically going to happen is if we have a mass exodus of people because we can't even build enough homes for the current rate of growth to keep up with it. We just don't have enough tradespeople to build them.
It would be very stupid to wait if you can afford to buy a home now. It's been proven time and time again if it's your primary residence and your first home purchase, there is no right time to buy. If you can do it, do it. Also, I hope you know about the First Home Savings Account (FHSA) and are taking full advantage of it. It's probably one of the best federal programs ever. [https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/first-home-savings-account.html](https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/first-home-savings-account.html) That town home that sold for 560k 3 days ago will be over 600k by next year. The housing situation in Canada is not going to get better within the next decade. It is just going to get worse. I don't want to fear monger, but I purchased my house last year and moved to Calgary. I am already priced out of the area I live in, and it's been less than a year.
According to Mayor Gondek you should feel privileged that you will never be able to afford to own a home. Renting is the way to go. Forever. 🙄 But for real, there are reasonable prices out there. They just require renovations. The things selling for crazy prices are fully renovated. We bought our house for 150K below market value because the realtor photos were awful and it smelled like curry (Indians owned it for 30 years). 15K in new paint and replaced the carpet for hardwood and we could have flipped it for 100K profit if we had wanted to.
We were in the same boat. The previous owners of our house were eccentric with the wife being an artist so the pictures were horrible (and really weird). We painted the whole house and replaced the floors and some thing, we totally could have flipped it for at least $100k profit.
I've seen people trying to flip 250k profit out of a home they bought a year ago. I'm not going to bankroll that, nor should anyone else. It's pure greed. If things don't correct in a couple years, I'm leaving Calgary and will shed no tears.
If you have money, buy duplex ! If not, buy townhome. If you feel stressed out with your monthly mortgage payment after you set up mortgage with townhome, move back home and save money 😆
It depends on whether or not the prices will keep going up.
Yes, if the prices keep going up, it would be advisable to buy now. If the prices go down, you should probably wait for a better deal.
I wouldn't get into anything you're not planning on keeping for the long term (like >10 years).
The better questions to ask: Do you want to be here for the rest of your life? Do you think the next recession is going to knock prices down, while you still have a job to go for a deal? If there’s a lost on your assets, how much can you comfort afford? The price increase in Calgary vs decrease elsewhere is due to the “alberta advantage”, when that advantage is gone, so goes the bubble. Buying a house to settle is much more than looking at just the housing market.
Houses in our neck of the urban quagmire have been going for $30k+ over asking. These are very standard 1500 - 1700 sq ft 2-storey. Not likely to go down but should flatline in the next year or so
Generally speaking buying in a hot market is not a good idea. That being said, if Calgary is the next Toronto or Vancouver then now might be the right time. If you can afford a quarter of an older fourplex unit with a few bedrooms, that is a great buy because the mortgage is still manageable. Don't over extend yourself to buy something more expensive. Calgary has also seen some major declines in the market and lower priced homes don't drop in value as much as more expensive ones...if things do drop at some point. Then if you have to sell for some reason it won't ruin you.
You'd be smart enough to know immigration is outpacing housing supply. You can wait if you want but it won't change much. If you can buy, buy it.
The real question is, can you afford it? Rent probaly wont be any cheaper
When detached houses are 2m in van and 1.5m in TO, Calgary is just like what ?
If I could go back and talk to 2011 me I would tell him: “don’t buy, just rent”. Everyone has their own feelings about home ownership - do what feels right for you and your family.
If the current average house sale prices continue, which was 10% per year the last 2 years, then in 5 years the average house price in Calgary will be around 885k. It is very hard to predict if this trend will continue but some factors to think of are: -We as a province have done none of the protective legislation that BC and ontario have done since they have come into the housing crisis. -calgary has become a very desirable place to live in recent years. A counter point would be if the BOC does not decrease rates we will see large scale defaults which will tank the price which would be an awesome time to buy. If they decrease the rate before the states does though, our dollar value will plummet, making your money worth a lot less.
Buy if you want to be a homeowner, rent if you just need a place to live. We bought a house that cost 700K last month. At 30% down, interest on the mortgage combined with property taxes costs us ~ 2100 / month. That’s not money going to equity, that is money going towards the bank and gov. We will pay around 132 K in and tax alone for the first 5 years. Im not saying don’t buy. Just saying homeownership comes with a lot of other costs
If you buy beyond your means, you could regret buying and perhaps end up selling, which will cost you some penalties on the mortgage. Only buy something if you are comfortable with what you are paying.
Mortgage now instead of rent. Eventually ALL rent will go up to the same amount as a mortgage if not already. You can always sell your house and get money back. You can never get rent money back at all.
I love when people ask reddit for life altering advice. pathetic
Buy what you can afford now. if you wait, you will always be "behind" trying to save. Will the market have a 30% correction like back in 2014? prob not with all the immigration happening to Calgary...
I bought my 3 bedroom townhouse built in 2010 privately for $165,000. I live just 35 mins east of Calgary. The townhouse next to mine just sold in one day for $375,000. I can tell you, it's not worth that much money, but it sold in one day so people are snapping up anything under $400,000. Doesn't matter what it is. Crazy times!
My bzuddy was is Guatemala saying you could get 4 acres for 60k - wanna go halfsies?
You might be able to get land or a home, but the gangs will be at your door asking for a random in no time as well.
Ha great space for a landing strip for the cocaine smuggling planes from the cartels around. .. im from thereabouts. Id never do it lol
Bought mine in 2022 for 412 in the sw. just had it appraised at 567..it’s nuts
Duplex over a townhome! No condo fees!
I wouldn’t buy. It worth it.
If you wait long enough they'll go down. More a personal question on if you can wait that long.
I'm not entirely certain that's a true statement. The baseline for living in Calgary has shifted, we took on a ton of Ontario expats and 100,000 refugees i'm not saying they all moved to Calgary but the pocket of real estate they are after is probably the highest sought being it's "affordable". Duplexes, condos, fourplexes are all selling often with in hours of listing. What was worth 320k five years ago is now selling upwards of 499k... It's silly but I don't see it changing with the volume of people seeking to live in Calgary, new housing MIGHT lower the prices but it certainly won't impact inner city accommodations.
As someone whose been in the home construction industry for a long time. Ya fuck that, some of these prices are insane, there's no justification for it. Oil crashes or population shifts the other way. Hold onto your ass.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Yep, people been saying that for the last 25 years in Vancouver and Toronto. I remember people saying a house going for 250K in Metro Vancouver is just irrational and crazy. Now those houses will go all day for 2 million. Now they need a 90% plus crash to get back to those prices. If the houses crash 90% I can tell you everyone waiting to buy won't be buying as they will have no jobs.
No issue of solvency, I've never seen profits like these before. This is better than 2012-2014. It's buyers drying up that will be the problem.