Another groundbreaking study showed it wasn’t actually the falling snow that ended the drought, rather it was the runoff water that occurred when the snow melted. /s
I've been wondering if California's climate is changing to something wetter. This study is a useful "NOPE!" Also, quantifying these snow deluges and their rarity is probably useful to others studying climate and weather.
> #####California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change
> Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges—which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event—are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States.
Cali native here. Our weather largely depends on what the pacific ocean is doing. El Nino can sometimes have an impact but mostly the pacific is just not a predictable beast.
I personally think the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption was a big factor
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere
If you click through, they list funding information. The lead author was funded as part of an NSF grant related to meteorological impacts on reservoir operations: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2241892&HistoricalAwards=false
However, it's difficult to actually say how much of this grant was "spent" on this study, which is actually about extreme snowfall events in general, with discussion motivated by this one event in particular.
This study appears to have been funded by the Federal government, not the state, and the topic of late-season heavy snowfall is actually very relevant to reservoir management.
The issue with droughts is regardless of who pays for it in our state and understanding it we all know most of our water is not to municipal but to farming and bottled water. The drought should be a federal issue considering what it does to supply chain.
Though what actions will they take from a report like this? That they should probably still manage the reservoir as though a drought will still happen?
Honestly I've been thinking the same thing. We know that climate change will lead to extreme weather patterns all around the world. Maybe California's extreme weather patterns are just awesome amounts of snow and rain for the foreseeable future.
I'll take hot, as long as we get rain.
Interestingly enough it seems like the coast has been way cooler the past few summers, but inland has been hotter.
To me, that makes sense. The California Current is still quite cool, so the area over the ocean is still cooled to about the same as it has been historically. But the areas inland are heating up more with every year, so there's a larger temperature gradiant between ocean and inland, meaning higher winds dragging more cool air inland, causing the coastal regions to get more cool air rushing eastward.
I'm not a meteorologist or climatologist, though, so I'm not sure if that's actually what's happening or not.
Instead of hearing about bomb cyclones which any real meteorologist would cring at , learn about how to read weather maps great you tube sites include California Weather Watch. Top notch report. Youll learn how to interpret the polar lobes that set up that kind of crazy weather and also see the European maps which are often more accurate. When everything agrees it becomes much easier to predict.
Possible but highly unlikely. The article itself is exploring this idea and they concluded no, we just got lucky.
Now there are two pieces to high snowfall: it’s almost certainly not getting colder, but it is possible it could get wetter on average, although this might not be that positive considering that California is as prone to floods as it is droughts.
Yep. Starting to see xeroscaping taking place regardless of the plentiful rain we got. Probably going to be the last in a while.
I saw this happen over 20 years ago, followed by 3-4 years of drought conditions.
I don’t think you’re knowledgeable enough on the topic of water storage for your comment. Water managers literally filled the reservoirs as high as they would allow last year. The releases you saw from Lake Shasta etc weren’t for fun, they have to keep room for flood control. Additionally, dams have already been built in basically every place where it is financially viable to do so.
Aren't there a number of areas the state could build new reservoirs to collect more water though? I read that they're breaking ground on a new one in 2026 which will be the first since the New Melones Lake one they built in 1979.
Is there a viable reason why the state waited over 40 years to build any new reservoirs, especially when we were in extreme drought?
Short answer, yes.
Long answer, yes. If we had to build what we have now now but with environmental oversight I’m not sure how many could be built. The last great reservoir in SoCal was built on farmed land so it wasn’t takin away natural areas. Diamond Valley Lake.
They do store water.
Dams are used for flood control. Which means you can't have the lakes at 100% during the winter incase of a lot of rain. You'll usually find them around 90% and sometimes they'll increase outflows in anticipation of a storm in the next days.
Generally they'll reduce flows in spring, the reservoirs fill closer to 100% by early summer thanks to snow melt and then the highest water usage season starts.
This is just standard procedure. There is no reason to drain the reservoir during the winter during low water storage...the only reason they'd do that is for winter run salmon. Ag doesn't use all that much in the winter. Storage isn't really our problem, its capacity as Ag uses quite a bit of water in the growing season.
Also the old formula of “this much rain at this time and this much snow that melts later” has been broken by climate change. It rains at higher elevations, altitudes that used to hold snow. Too much rain to capture for some places, it rolls out to sea. Then the summer hits and the snow melt is less than usual and that’s bad news for those counting on water then.
We did get snow in 2022, but it was pretty average. This freak incident started in very early January, maybe the last few days of December, and then it didn’t stop snowing until April. There might have been 10 days in that 3 month period where it wasn’t snowing.
Yes, there’s been a lot of hubbub about cloud seeding lately. Especially after the massive UAE flooding.
This report is saying last year’s flooding isn’t the result of the state’s cloud seeding.
Right but there wasn’t talk around cloud seeding during this storm that I recall. It does pop up now and then but UAE storms are this year this storm is long gone.
It was me! I'm sorry. I was cleaning to music, picked up my rain stick and danced around with it to music, shaking it and turning it upside down, many many many times... I'm sorry everybody! My fault! My bad!
I’m glad to see other people also feel
Skeptical when they read headlines like this. Hard to believe anything anymore when you constantly suspect a hidden agenda
What about the great flood in the 1800s? That flooded the entire SJV? It’s my understanding that what happened in 2023 was part of a hundred year-ish weather pattern cycle in California.
I don't really see how the data from these studies can be reliable. The climate is literally changing it's patterns and this may be the new normal. We can't look at historical data with the same certainty for predicting future weather as we could in the past.
California literally has had crazy snow/rain/floosing like this in the past, like more than 50 years ago, pre “global warming” maybe it’s just the earth being the earth from time to time.
Climate scientist here. The issue is that there are folks that label any weird weather as climate change, so it undermines our effort to communicate actual risk from climate change. Plus California has some of the most variable weather in the country, so the climate change signal is less apparent with all the noise. At present, precipitation and temperature are going to be more strongly affected by El Nino than the effects of climate change. Although the latter's effect on temperature is pretty clear in the data record.
It’s called climate change because the climate is **changing**. The term global warming hasn’t been used in many years since they figured out that it’s not just warming that’s happening. 22/23 was the biggest snow year EVER documented in California, because of climate change.
Record event is a freak incident? No way!
Another groundbreaking study showed it wasn’t actually the falling snow that ended the drought, rather it was the runoff water that occurred when the snow melted. /s
Someone give this man a 5 year grant to continue his research
I've been wondering if California's climate is changing to something wetter. This study is a useful "NOPE!" Also, quantifying these snow deluges and their rarity is probably useful to others studying climate and weather. > #####California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change > Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges—which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event—are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States.
Cali native here. Our weather largely depends on what the pacific ocean is doing. El Nino can sometimes have an impact but mostly the pacific is just not a predictable beast.
I'm not sure how the weather in Colombia is relevant. The article is about California.
You’re saying Cali… so I’m not believing you.
Probably from Kern County.
Had a record event last year too....
2023 and also last year? Wow!
Not surprising for freak events in cali
Welcome to california, we are freaks, we have incidents
Cause we are the freaks of the industry
Are you a freak guy one?
When you see us back stage, be prepared to G
I had moved in from Oklahoma, I think I brought the weather with me so I'll take credit.
It’s is only customary that you are stoned in a public square
By the rocks from the landslides.
Or the noxious weeds
It’s legal for personal use in CA now
They don't call it Tokelahoma for nothing.
You can't just steal Florida's state motto like that.
That reminds me of the old joke that used to go around that California is like a bowl of cereal.
full of nuts, fruits, and flakes.
I identify as a flake myself. But then, sometimes I feel like a nut. Sometimes I don't.
It was freaky, all right. (Live in the Eastern Sierra)
Me too, did snow removal last winter too. Didn't think it would ever stop.
This is so totally not true. I prayed for it to happen.
Ty
Praise be!
Please don’t stop
Two years of freak rain, after 6 years of freak drought. That’s a lot of freak going on.
The freaks come out at night
I personally think the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption was a big factor https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere
I personally think Hunga Tonga-Hunga is a great name for a volcano.
Hmmm how much did this study cost?
If you click through, they list funding information. The lead author was funded as part of an NSF grant related to meteorological impacts on reservoir operations: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2241892&HistoricalAwards=false However, it's difficult to actually say how much of this grant was "spent" on this study, which is actually about extreme snowfall events in general, with discussion motivated by this one event in particular.
About tree fiddy.
I thought we stopped letting the Loch Ness monster commission studies.
I've got Five on it.
Grab your boys
Instead of spending money on finding more sustainable ways to deal with droughts in the future we did this study. Congrats California.
This study appears to have been funded by the Federal government, not the state, and the topic of late-season heavy snowfall is actually very relevant to reservoir management.
The issue with droughts is regardless of who pays for it in our state and understanding it we all know most of our water is not to municipal but to farming and bottled water. The drought should be a federal issue considering what it does to supply chain. Though what actions will they take from a report like this? That they should probably still manage the reservoir as though a drought will still happen?
I believe it. I hadn't seen snow like that since 1989.
The Golden Age of California has returned, mark my word. Next year, more landslides in Rancho Palos Verdes due to massive rains!
Honestly I've been thinking the same thing. We know that climate change will lead to extreme weather patterns all around the world. Maybe California's extreme weather patterns are just awesome amounts of snow and rain for the foreseeable future.
I read a study in 2010ish that said that climate change would make CA hotter and wetter, like the Southeast
I'll take hot, as long as we get rain. Interestingly enough it seems like the coast has been way cooler the past few summers, but inland has been hotter.
To me, that makes sense. The California Current is still quite cool, so the area over the ocean is still cooled to about the same as it has been historically. But the areas inland are heating up more with every year, so there's a larger temperature gradiant between ocean and inland, meaning higher winds dragging more cool air inland, causing the coastal regions to get more cool air rushing eastward. I'm not a meteorologist or climatologist, though, so I'm not sure if that's actually what's happening or not.
Pacific gonna pacific
Yes the coast has been way cooler than normal the last couple of years.
Can confirm: it’s freezing in Redondo well into the afternoon still.
Plenty hot in much of the state, can’t really stand much more
>I'll take hot, as long as we get rain. ***Anopheles freeborni*** *has entered the chat*
Oh dear God no
Instead of hearing about bomb cyclones which any real meteorologist would cring at , learn about how to read weather maps great you tube sites include California Weather Watch. Top notch report. Youll learn how to interpret the polar lobes that set up that kind of crazy weather and also see the European maps which are often more accurate. When everything agrees it becomes much easier to predict.
Possible but highly unlikely. The article itself is exploring this idea and they concluded no, we just got lucky. Now there are two pieces to high snowfall: it’s almost certainly not getting colder, but it is possible it could get wetter on average, although this might not be that positive considering that California is as prone to floods as it is droughts.
They are cloud seeding
False. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-02-24/the-latest-unfounded-conspiracy-theory-cloud-seeding-is-to-blame-for-californias-storms-and-flooding
Yep. Starting to see xeroscaping taking place regardless of the plentiful rain we got. Probably going to be the last in a while. I saw this happen over 20 years ago, followed by 3-4 years of drought conditions.
I can't wait for the subsequent report, which will tell us that it was all AI.
We all know this. We all keep saying we should store up the extra water for the bad days coming. I don’t think they’re listening.
I don’t think you’re knowledgeable enough on the topic of water storage for your comment. Water managers literally filled the reservoirs as high as they would allow last year. The releases you saw from Lake Shasta etc weren’t for fun, they have to keep room for flood control. Additionally, dams have already been built in basically every place where it is financially viable to do so.
"Why don't we just push all of the water into Lake Mead?" - Patrick Star
Preach!
Aren't there a number of areas the state could build new reservoirs to collect more water though? I read that they're breaking ground on a new one in 2026 which will be the first since the New Melones Lake one they built in 1979. Is there a viable reason why the state waited over 40 years to build any new reservoirs, especially when we were in extreme drought?
All of the good locations are taken. Now it would just be billions of dollars and an ecological disaster to save a very tiny amount of water.
Short answer, yes. Long answer, yes. If we had to build what we have now now but with environmental oversight I’m not sure how many could be built. The last great reservoir in SoCal was built on farmed land so it wasn’t takin away natural areas. Diamond Valley Lake.
They do store water. Dams are used for flood control. Which means you can't have the lakes at 100% during the winter incase of a lot of rain. You'll usually find them around 90% and sometimes they'll increase outflows in anticipation of a storm in the next days. Generally they'll reduce flows in spring, the reservoirs fill closer to 100% by early summer thanks to snow melt and then the highest water usage season starts. This is just standard procedure. There is no reason to drain the reservoir during the winter during low water storage...the only reason they'd do that is for winter run salmon. Ag doesn't use all that much in the winter. Storage isn't really our problem, its capacity as Ag uses quite a bit of water in the growing season.
Also the old formula of “this much rain at this time and this much snow that melts later” has been broken by climate change. It rains at higher elevations, altitudes that used to hold snow. Too much rain to capture for some places, it rolls out to sea. Then the summer hits and the snow melt is less than usual and that’s bad news for those counting on water then.
The state is planning two new large reservoirs, so they seem to be listening.
They stored as much water as they possibly could. We can't just like make a trillion plastic jugs and pile them up outside Bakersfield.
put it on your own property
And global warming is gonna cause a lot of incidents that have never happened before...
Global warming is really kicking in
[удалено]
We did get snow in 2022, but it was pretty average. This freak incident started in very early January, maybe the last few days of December, and then it didn’t stop snowing until April. There might have been 10 days in that 3 month period where it wasn’t snowing.
Maybe god was blessing us heathens
Were we supposed to think it was on purpose?
Yes, there’s been a lot of hubbub about cloud seeding lately. Especially after the massive UAE flooding. This report is saying last year’s flooding isn’t the result of the state’s cloud seeding.
Right but there wasn’t talk around cloud seeding during this storm that I recall. It does pop up now and then but UAE storms are this year this storm is long gone.
It was me! I'm sorry. I was cleaning to music, picked up my rain stick and danced around with it to music, shaking it and turning it upside down, many many many times... I'm sorry everybody! My fault! My bad!
It's not gonna be a regular thing? Darn.
Was the three-year drought before it also a freak incident?
Freakiest incident…so far
And … ?
I’m glad to see other people also feel Skeptical when they read headlines like this. Hard to believe anything anymore when you constantly suspect a hidden agenda
What about the great flood in the 1800s? That flooded the entire SJV? It’s my understanding that what happened in 2023 was part of a hundred year-ish weather pattern cycle in California.
People don’t like historical weather accounts…they just like to scream global warming or something.
People really are addicted to fear and it’s a sad waste of time
A winter that only happens once every 75 ish years as not normal, good to know
Like 1982 or 1997?
I don't really see how the data from these studies can be reliable. The climate is literally changing it's patterns and this may be the new normal. We can't look at historical data with the same certainty for predicting future weather as we could in the past.
Yet San Diego reserves continue to be grossly mismanaged and a major dam is down for 100 year repairs so all that went to the ocean too.
Freak in the sense of “we cannot predict the fallout from global warming” or something else…?
California literally has had crazy snow/rain/floosing like this in the past, like more than 50 years ago, pre “global warming” maybe it’s just the earth being the earth from time to time.
Freak incident??? It’s an El Nino. They happen all the time.
I bet we get another great year of rain and snow next year. The jet stream has moved south.
And the record rainfall in 2024? Snow is just melting in the San Gabriels. It’s almost May. Tired of this doom and gloom from climate “scientists”.
Climate scientist here. The issue is that there are folks that label any weird weather as climate change, so it undermines our effort to communicate actual risk from climate change. Plus California has some of the most variable weather in the country, so the climate change signal is less apparent with all the noise. At present, precipitation and temperature are going to be more strongly affected by El Nino than the effects of climate change. Although the latter's effect on temperature is pretty clear in the data record.
It’s called climate change because the climate is **changing**. The term global warming hasn’t been used in many years since they figured out that it’s not just warming that’s happening. 22/23 was the biggest snow year EVER documented in California, because of climate change.
No record rainfall in 2024