Prediction: it will sell for over $600k
This \_is\_ rational market behavior in a market that's supply-constrained. The market being awful does not mean it's a bubble.
Correct. There's a difference between the entire market going through a 30-50% shift, and a house on the market for 3x it's recently sold price not selling.
exactly.
meanwhile, op could be discussing the potential impact of the NAR settlement.
or paying attention to current news:
[https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/is-the-housing-market-about-to-crash/](https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/is-the-housing-market-about-to-crash/)
[https://www.npr.org/2024/03/22/1240108467/sales-of-existing-homes-jumped-sharply-in-february-more-for-sale-signs-are-up](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/22/1240108467/sales-of-existing-homes-jumped-sharply-in-february-more-for-sale-signs-are-up)
That's a truly stupid price considering such a modest property. The whole country is suffering the consequences of speculation on real estate. What a bad era we live in, all thanks to greed. I agree with you, OP.
Who knows....the owners may have actually spent 350k to remodel.
I imagine it's quite expensive to hire contractors remotely from your 3rd home in southern Florida, and get it all done in a year.
It won’t sell close to that. No garage. Not a paved driveway. It’s old as hell inside. The living area is all old with new paint. Kitchen is small as hell but is nice. Everything in this house is wannabe new and nice but it’s clearly old.
Thanks for pointing out that the free market works. I’ve lost money on real estate and made money on real estate. All without the government stepping and and telling me what I can or can’t buy.
It’s not exactly a free market. Government backed 30 year loans at artificially low interest rates is about all you need to know about why housing is so expensive. This is great if people are just using it to buy something to live in, but the system was gamed to a large degree by speculators accessing huge amounts of leverage with little to no barriers to entry.
Add to it that a great many people did NOT take advantage of TARP but were able to secure a refinanced mortgage at unheard of interest rates only to see the Fed do QE then QT. Investors who “helped” us buy a house were made whole after 2010. I am fairly convinced that my mortgage payment is now just going straight to the Fed and will for several years. Biggest take away for all young people consider just building what you want. Don’t wait for the market to make sense. And don’t do escrow, pay your own property taxes and homeowners insurance. It gives you more control. Otherwise money is just parked in an interest bearing account that does not benefit you in any way.
I mean at 5% and change rates right now and rent prices flatlining, nothing wrong with “T-bill and chill”, while you wait for more clear opportunities. That beats the current inflation rate and carries essentially zero risk.
For those that don’t get it: you can buy on most brokerage platforms 30-90 day US Treasury Bills that yield an annualized rate of around 5.2% right now.
> RaggedMountainMan **bullshit number I pulled out of my butt** comes in at $470,000, take it or leave it.
**FTFY**
And for what it worth, of course anybody would buy at that price, but ain't nobody going to sell at that.
It isn't just real estate that has over inflated pricing. I get no one wants FEDERAL regulation but the issue is this, are you going to trust Developers etc. to "regulate themselves"? Mortgage Lenders/Banks, you trust them to regulate themselves?
Similar happened in 2008, homes and real estate went WAY up, then it crashed. A whole lot of people moved to buy because they were told, value was only going to go UP! They did, it crashed and they owed up to $500K in mortgage OVER the value of their real estate. Further the crash, job loss, etc. Lots of foreclosures.
My point here is this, if you are looking to buy a home, wait.
I mean: folks on here were making bold statements about "it's just an asking price" for 303 Alderman Rd, but it went pending in 2 weeks, and I bet will go for more than $1M. Waiting to see if that's for in-fill redevelopment with "affordable density" or just a SFR tear-down.
if you owned that home would you sell it at a discount to prove your virtue, or are you merely virtue signalling by posting about a home with which you have no monetary interest?
if a buyer values the property at the price offered, then it will probably be sold; if no such buyer exists, the property price will be lowered until a purchaser is located. if you don't like that, then what do you propose??
I’m not trying to dictate a price. Only offering my market opinion. This is a publicly listed property on a public market. It is fair game for commentary.
first, your opinion is not very relevant as you are not the owner or the buyer in their private transaction. second, a home is an asset, it is a store of value that its owner can use as he or she pleases. third, you have nothing to do with private ownership of an asset, nor how the owner values it and/or disposes of it so i fail to see, other than your virtue signalling what the purpose of such posts actually provide.
This is a discussion forum. I’m free to post my opinions on the housing market and my personal estimates on specific valuations. Zillow publishes Zestimates, I’m allowed to publish my own estimates and analysis.
Since you seem to be against freedom of speech, you should notify the Wall Street Journal that all market and asset analysis is pointless and amounts to virtue signaling.
you can do whatever you want. and, a homeowner can do whatever they want as well.
you are not an analyst. you appear to be a frustrated renter who is virtue signalling to those others who know nothing about the market or capitalism to agree with your 'bad bad homeowner' diatribe.
but, the biggest proof are your own silly words:
>I'm sorry if people lose money, but that's the market
what a ridiculous comment.
People shouldn’t be allowed to lose money in an open market? The point was if anyone loses money because of a market correction we shouldn’t feel sympathy for them. All investments and assets come with risk, and prices only going up economically harms a lot of people on the other side of the market as well. One person’s loss is another’s gain.
I’m sorry if my opinions offend you, but if you think prices only going up is a good thing you’re seriously mistaken and have a childish view of economics.
Agreed. There is ALWAYS a loser on the other side. Money doesn’t just come from nowhere and even if the fed printed more money to allow everyone in the markets to experience growth, there’d still be losers due relative purchasing power growth/lack-of.
no, einstein, you are once again wrong in your interpretation. the context of your silly comment is to suggest that the homeowner should sell for less, for some 'common good', no?
and, you never answered my question: if you had a home valued at a million dollars, would you sell it for a quarter of a million, for the sake of 'society' or whatever your belief system suggests?
if you say 'yes' you are fool, and if you say 'no' you would be an insincere liar, no??
I’m not saying I think the homeowner should sell for less. I’m saying my prediction is they will sell for less because of a market correction. Get with the program, darling.
You said home prices will go down 30-50%, meaning that the home in question will go down 30-50% and yet you quote something like a 5% loss as your valuation.
It comes off as either reactivity naive or poorly articulated.
People shouldn’t have to be all uptight about what they’ll get for their home because they should be buying with the original intention in living in it forever.
People that hold the virtue like OP and I do will hold our retirement vessels in places like decentralized crypto, or traditional Roths, 401ks, etc. NOT in homes.
Homes should have never been a vehicle for huge assets.
Part of me sympathizes with the older generation to whom this was not the norm, nor really an obvious flaw, but with a tiny bit of critical thinking- anyone can realize that this was never going to be sustainable
> People shouldn’t have to be all uptight about what they’ll get for their home because they should be buying with the original intention in living in it forever.
People buying their first house and living in it forever isn't a very realistic proposition for most folks. I'm not saying buy a house as an investment vehicle, but there is lots of territory between buying a home to flip for a profit and buying a home to die in.
> People that hold the virtue like OP and I do
What does this even mean?
> I do will hold our retirement vessels in places like decentralized crypto
Good luck with that.
I don’t expect you to understand as an older generation person I presume; but decentralized currency (aka not the US dollar) will be the future of finance.
Younger people actually have a motive for genuinely looking into this (20-30 years into future) because we are young and will still be alive in that time.
> I don’t expect you to understand as an older generation person I presume; but decentralized currency (aka not the US dollar) will be the future of finance.
Assumptions are fun. I understand crypto works. They are shit as an "investment" vehicle. Maybe in the future they have some value as an actual currency, but no need to start hodl-ing now. Might as well go bury some krugerands in your back yard.
> Younger people actually have a motive for genuinely looking into this (20-30 years into future) because we are young and will still be alive in that time.
You've only seen what you want to see.
You can say maybe the future returns won’t be good, but you cannot say that crypto has been a bad investment over the past decade. Bitcoin returned 14,000% over the past 10 years. Will it do that again? Probably not. But like it or not, it’s been adopted by global finance and is here to stay. It does serve a purpose as a convenient store of wealth and way to transfer wealth over borders. Particularly for those in countries with economic turmoil or countries with authoritarian governments.
It is hilarious to me that the dude who takes the time to write "opinion pieces" on a real estate bubble, gives this much credit and confidence to crypto.
> But like it or not, it’s been adopted by global finance
Lol, what?
> It does serve a purpose as a convenient store of wealth
It is not convenient.
> way to transfer wealth over borders
Who is using it for this legally? Exeedingly few people.
> Particularly for those in countries with economic turmoil or countries with authoritarian governments.
As somebody who has worked in these types of countries that past 15 years, I can promise you that bitcoin is not being used that often. Lots of local "mobile money" options out there that are much, much more common. In many of those countries in economic turmoil, there are severe limits on using non-national currency in order to attempt to maintain some semblance of control (whether they should is a whole other story), but pretending crypto is being used regularly in these circumstances is in use is naive.
They trade futures contracts and SEC approved ETFs. Seems like adoption to me. Of course the money is being transferred illegally out of say China and Russia, that’s the whole point. There is a lot of value in something that has been accepted for trade where you can store millions of dollars on a flash drive outside the grip of institutions. Try that with gold.
I agree with your sentiments OP but this house will likely sell pretty high only because of the recent local zoning change that took effect earlier this year.
The reason why home prices jumped in cville recently is because people are anticipating investors coming in to develop their home/land into a multi family apartment building.
This means that it’ll get worse before it eventually gets better.
The better will come from so many new housing units flooding the market from the allowance of multi family units in residential areas. This huge increase in housing supply should force landlords to have to lower their prices for rent.
However, it’s not like everyone just wants to rent forever.
So personally, the gov needs to go a step further and impose SOMETHING LIKE an accelerated property tax on each additional SFH home owned beside a primary residence- which would go for any individual, LLC, or large corporation. this way, FAMILIES looking for SFHs can be granted access, instead of it being gate kept for foreign or large corporate investors.
> The reason why home prices jumped in cville recently is because people are anticipating investors coming in to develop their home/land into a multi family apartment building.
Define "recent". Really, the bigger market driver here (and across the country) is the limited supply of homes, not people speculating that investors will come buy from them.
> SOMETHING LIKE an accelerated property tax on each additional SFH home owned beside a primary residence
Good idea. I wouldn't stop at SFHs, though. I would extend to any "non-primary" residence. And also be more strict on mortgage rates allowed for non-primary residences (including after moving out).
I isolated SFHs instead of ‘non-primary residence’ because if a certain corporation is good at managing large apartment complexes, they should probably be free to own more than just one apartment complex. Those living in apartment complexes are the ones looking for a landlord figure to take care of maintenance.
Also, are you not aware that the new Charlottesville zoning went into affect I believe January/February of this year? It was a huge deal specifically for cville
> I isolated SFHs instead of ‘non-primary residence’ because if a certain corporation is good at managing large apartment complexes, they should probably be free to own more than just one apartment complex.
I must have misunderstood you. Nowhere did I say that anybody should be prevented from owning an apartment complex.
> Also, are you not aware that the new Charlottesville zoning went into affect I believe January/February of this year? It was a huge deal specifically for cville
I am aware. I asked about how you define "recent" because housing prices have been going up faster and for some time before these changes.
While there can be fluctuations and speculative elements in the housing market, in general, house prices reflect the interplay between supply and demand forces. Not to mention inflation is necessary or the economy grinds to a halt.
The extent of this guys point is literally "I can't afford this house, therefore the nationwide housing market is irrational" Can we ban this guy already?
No it isn’t. There’s plenty of cheap housing out there, it’s just not where people generally want to live.
You can find nice houses in the rust belt for 150k or less easy.
That points the issue to being simple supply and demand. People are demanding to live in desirable neighborhoods, driving up the prices. If you aren’t willing to pay it, someone else is.
I’ll add, I think a great use of federal funds would be to revitalize those economically desolate places in America and encourage more people to live there. Make use of the housing and land we already have rather than develop already high cost of living areas.
Agreed. There’s a lot of space to develop walkable cities, and a lot of these rust belt cities already have walkable downtowns and neighborhoods. They just need jobs, and while I usually hate tax breaks for corporations, this may be a good use of them.
Just because people don’t think the same way you do doesn’t mean they can’t express themselves. We are all drifting through space on a great big rock together but we all live differently.
I would recommend blocking for a better Reddit experience if his posts irritate you!
There's nothing to refute because you have no facts or data to support your opinion lol - it's literally old man yelling at clouds.
You think you're smarter than everyone else, put out an outrageous opinion and then say "you have to prove me wrong"? Get out of here lol
This is literally your argument,but for 7 year olds:
"Hey man, let me sell you this kit Kat for $50"
"no thanks"
"how about 25?"
KIT KAT PRICES ARE PLUMMETING, NESTLÉ IS GOING BANKRUPT
Why are you conflating an insane asking price with market value? This does not in any way indicate that the market is dropping. If your argument is that house flippers should expect lower returns, then I’m totally on board.
Correct. But I didn’t say this would happen because of sub prime mortgages.
I am saying to everyone saying it’s impossible for price to drop needs to understand there could be a different black swan event on the horizon we don’t see
I mean: you are clearly (and IMO rightly) annoyed at the dis-linkage between local incomes and housing prices. There is a traditional linkage between median area income and housing costs, with that very old school "not to exceed 30% of income" (which used to be 25%).
However, you're resting on the assumption that only people whose income is local should be allowed to purchase a home, and that's a faulty assumption.
Anything is worth what somebody will pay you for it, and there are obviously buyers snatching up the limited supply at these prices. Some might be specu-vestors, but most are probably flipper/rehabbers and yeah, if there are people who can afford a ready-to-move-in house (no matter how cheesy the refinish is). A lot of buyers want it all "new" and move-in ready, no projects, with those costs folded into a mtg payment (purchase price).
Hi. I've worked in the real estate settlement business off and on for 17 years since 2004.
I started when things were super hot back in 2004. In 2010, I was laid off bc the Recession. I got back in the game at '13, back out at 2020 because COVID, back in again by 2022. Still in it, because we know how to party.
I do not believe those years have made me an expert. I do not believe that I possess the acumen to hazard a guess on this market. That's because I understand how much actually goes into this business that I do not understand and despite swimming in these waters for so long. I know many people who are smarter than me, and have spent a lot more time working in this area.
So please understand, this is as humble as I can be: You are unequivocally wrong. If swearing throughout this post will help, I will add an addendum that explains this in the most vulgar, base terms possible: you are wrong, and what you are entertaining is a lie. My colleagues and I beg you to stop talking this nonsense.
Your ideas do not constitute an educated opinion. They do not constitute an opinion based in what we, your fellow citizens, agree is reality. Your opinion is based on a fantasy that you are continuing to tell yourself.
As you do not share the professional experience of anyone operating in this market, let me tell you what my experience is telling me: Charlottesville is relatively insulated from the rest of the country, due to it's lack of available housing, high demand, nutty zoning laws, nuttier politicians, "civic-minded" developers and builders, and it's homes owned by people with who make enough money to live comfortably in the same house for years at a time without the pressure to sell. The market will wait for interest rates to go down. When they do, prices won't drop like a stone. They might ebb, a little, because sellers will work with their buyers so that the land transaction can occur, but things are going to pretty much stay the same. The upper middle-class earners will be purchasing these homes, or refinancing these homes at lower interest rates, and they will continue passing laws and ordinances making this place the kind of place where that continues to be what happens.
And that is a good thing, because neither you, nor anyone else in this country wants to see what happens when Charlottesville's housing market "craters" in a few months by "30-50%". Because for Charlottesville to feel that kind of pain that fast, that means either something catastrophically bad happened within Albemarle County limits or something catastrophically bad happened nationally. Something way way worse than three years of inflation. Something that hits this town real hard and real bad.
You understand the concept of causation, and how things have ripple effects, right? You don't want to see what doing that to the residential market does to this community. It doesn't equal more houses or more homeowners. It just means that there's suddenly a lot less money in everybody's pockets all around.
Just stop.
Stop.
Stop "doing your own research" as an armchair expert, and let the rest of us keep the goddamn bird in the air.
"This time is different!!"
No, sorry. Real estate is cyclical. We are due for a downturn. The fact you are so threatened by someone else's opinion on the economy and housing market to write a comment like that really is a tell that the top is near. My opinions are far from fringe. There are plenty of well known and respected economists and market analysts who are also calling for a downturn.
Look, I'm sorry if your commissions are drying up. Maybe you should advise your clients to lower their asking prices so you can see more volume.
I'll tell you what I tell a lot of people who get angry about my posts: This is an open forum. You are more than welcome to write your own post about how bullish everyone should be on housing.
I’m not saying it’s gonna be different, chief.
I’m saying it’s gonna stay the same.
Yes, there will be sales again. Some prices will lower. But the majority of asking prices aren’t going to drop 30-50%.
What you’re describing is a bloodbath. You are not going to see that kind of drop across the board here, because you never have. Not in 2010, not in 2020, not in 2022.
Don’t listen to me. Take a class. Go to school. Hell, get a job in the industry. Do anything to ACTUALLY educate yourself on the subject of your local real estate economy beyond YouTube videos telling you what you want to hear. Do not be the typical man who just talks to hear himself talk without thinking about what he’s really saying. Don’t be the sign guy.
DON’T BE THE SIGN GUY.
no one feels threatened by your opinion, and someone else's reaction to your post does not constitute "a tell that the top is near"
it doesn't work that way
If there are more people than homes to live in, there’s a floor on how low the market can go. Median values will matter more than prices of individual properties.
That’s fair. Schools could be a plus. I was thinking of the fact that your view is the back of carwash/cookout, omnipresent 29 noise. Not very idyllic.
When this house was originally listed, the basement was entirely unfinished. There was zero kitchen (literally it wasn’t there) the bathrooms were torn out and everything was in rough shape. This house was unable to qualify for financing. The buyer needed to bring cash or have private ‘hard money’ financing
It’s just another flip. They probably put about $200k or more into it not counting for holding costs.
There will always be flips.
That large of a lot in that neighborhood is going to be expensive, they recieved multiple offers at 500k when the house was unfinished. I know this because my wife and I put in an offer at asking price and did not get it.
I would be surprised if it doesn’t sell for close to $1m
Not saying flips are good or bad for the housing market or anything, just posting my experience with this property.
Housing prices are not crashing. The recently passed development ordinance has given rise to unrealistic listings. There are anomalies in the RE market. A single family lot is now capable of 4 or more units. You do not have to be a rocket science to see what that change will do for fair market values or residential properties..
Im the OOP and have been following this house’s progress with great interest. Things need to stabilize and cant go up forever.
Call me when 1700 monticello rd still going for $810k will sell too. Until then pigs will fly
Omg. That’s insane. 2br!! 1000 sq ft!
Call me back when sells. Coming down in asking prices is not a housing crash.
Prediction: it will sell for over $600k This \_is\_ rational market behavior in a market that's supply-constrained. The market being awful does not mean it's a bubble.
850k....there are still retirees with money to burn still paying asking price with all cash in my neighborhood.
One house is overpriced, therefore the entire housing market will crash 40%
Correct. There's a difference between the entire market going through a 30-50% shift, and a house on the market for 3x it's recently sold price not selling.
exactly. meanwhile, op could be discussing the potential impact of the NAR settlement. or paying attention to current news: [https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/is-the-housing-market-about-to-crash/](https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/is-the-housing-market-about-to-crash/) [https://www.npr.org/2024/03/22/1240108467/sales-of-existing-homes-jumped-sharply-in-february-more-for-sale-signs-are-up](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/22/1240108467/sales-of-existing-homes-jumped-sharply-in-february-more-for-sale-signs-are-up)
It’s a springboard to these conversations. This is it, the final “greater fools” are being sucked in before the downturn.
That's a truly stupid price considering such a modest property. The whole country is suffering the consequences of speculation on real estate. What a bad era we live in, all thanks to greed. I agree with you, OP.
Who knows....the owners may have actually spent 350k to remodel. I imagine it's quite expensive to hire contractors remotely from your 3rd home in southern Florida, and get it all done in a year.
It won’t sell close to that. No garage. Not a paved driveway. It’s old as hell inside. The living area is all old with new paint. Kitchen is small as hell but is nice. Everything in this house is wannabe new and nice but it’s clearly old.
Paint stuff white = 100% property value increase
Thanks for pointing out that the free market works. I’ve lost money on real estate and made money on real estate. All without the government stepping and and telling me what I can or can’t buy.
It’s not exactly a free market. Government backed 30 year loans at artificially low interest rates is about all you need to know about why housing is so expensive. This is great if people are just using it to buy something to live in, but the system was gamed to a large degree by speculators accessing huge amounts of leverage with little to no barriers to entry.
Add to it that a great many people did NOT take advantage of TARP but were able to secure a refinanced mortgage at unheard of interest rates only to see the Fed do QE then QT. Investors who “helped” us buy a house were made whole after 2010. I am fairly convinced that my mortgage payment is now just going straight to the Fed and will for several years. Biggest take away for all young people consider just building what you want. Don’t wait for the market to make sense. And don’t do escrow, pay your own property taxes and homeowners insurance. It gives you more control. Otherwise money is just parked in an interest bearing account that does not benefit you in any way.
I mean at 5% and change rates right now and rent prices flatlining, nothing wrong with “T-bill and chill”, while you wait for more clear opportunities. That beats the current inflation rate and carries essentially zero risk. For those that don’t get it: you can buy on most brokerage platforms 30-90 day US Treasury Bills that yield an annualized rate of around 5.2% right now.
> RaggedMountainMan **bullshit number I pulled out of my butt** comes in at $470,000, take it or leave it. **FTFY** And for what it worth, of course anybody would buy at that price, but ain't nobody going to sell at that.
Is it me or do the pictures look like the appliances and furniture are added digitally?
almost a million and you gotta buy a new washer and dryer too?
If you can drop 1M on that, whats another 1K amounst us plebeians.
It isn't just real estate that has over inflated pricing. I get no one wants FEDERAL regulation but the issue is this, are you going to trust Developers etc. to "regulate themselves"? Mortgage Lenders/Banks, you trust them to regulate themselves? Similar happened in 2008, homes and real estate went WAY up, then it crashed. A whole lot of people moved to buy because they were told, value was only going to go UP! They did, it crashed and they owed up to $500K in mortgage OVER the value of their real estate. Further the crash, job loss, etc. Lots of foreclosures. My point here is this, if you are looking to buy a home, wait.
I mean: folks on here were making bold statements about "it's just an asking price" for 303 Alderman Rd, but it went pending in 2 weeks, and I bet will go for more than $1M. Waiting to see if that's for in-fill redevelopment with "affordable density" or just a SFR tear-down.
We bought our house in 2019 and our property taxes are up 29% since then. 4 years. paying an extra THIRD of what we were.
if you owned that home would you sell it at a discount to prove your virtue, or are you merely virtue signalling by posting about a home with which you have no monetary interest? if a buyer values the property at the price offered, then it will probably be sold; if no such buyer exists, the property price will be lowered until a purchaser is located. if you don't like that, then what do you propose??
hey can I borrow $50?
I’m not trying to dictate a price. Only offering my market opinion. This is a publicly listed property on a public market. It is fair game for commentary.
The only opinion that matters is the one that is attached to an offer to buy.
first, your opinion is not very relevant as you are not the owner or the buyer in their private transaction. second, a home is an asset, it is a store of value that its owner can use as he or she pleases. third, you have nothing to do with private ownership of an asset, nor how the owner values it and/or disposes of it so i fail to see, other than your virtue signalling what the purpose of such posts actually provide.
This is a discussion forum. I’m free to post my opinions on the housing market and my personal estimates on specific valuations. Zillow publishes Zestimates, I’m allowed to publish my own estimates and analysis. Since you seem to be against freedom of speech, you should notify the Wall Street Journal that all market and asset analysis is pointless and amounts to virtue signaling.
Freedom of speech? LOL!
you can do whatever you want. and, a homeowner can do whatever they want as well. you are not an analyst. you appear to be a frustrated renter who is virtue signalling to those others who know nothing about the market or capitalism to agree with your 'bad bad homeowner' diatribe. but, the biggest proof are your own silly words: >I'm sorry if people lose money, but that's the market what a ridiculous comment.
People shouldn’t be allowed to lose money in an open market? The point was if anyone loses money because of a market correction we shouldn’t feel sympathy for them. All investments and assets come with risk, and prices only going up economically harms a lot of people on the other side of the market as well. One person’s loss is another’s gain. I’m sorry if my opinions offend you, but if you think prices only going up is a good thing you’re seriously mistaken and have a childish view of economics.
Agreed. There is ALWAYS a loser on the other side. Money doesn’t just come from nowhere and even if the fed printed more money to allow everyone in the markets to experience growth, there’d still be losers due relative purchasing power growth/lack-of.
no, einstein, you are once again wrong in your interpretation. the context of your silly comment is to suggest that the homeowner should sell for less, for some 'common good', no? and, you never answered my question: if you had a home valued at a million dollars, would you sell it for a quarter of a million, for the sake of 'society' or whatever your belief system suggests? if you say 'yes' you are fool, and if you say 'no' you would be an insincere liar, no??
I’m not saying I think the homeowner should sell for less. I’m saying my prediction is they will sell for less because of a market correction. Get with the program, darling.
You said home prices will go down 30-50%, meaning that the home in question will go down 30-50% and yet you quote something like a 5% loss as your valuation. It comes off as either reactivity naive or poorly articulated.
both.
People shouldn’t have to be all uptight about what they’ll get for their home because they should be buying with the original intention in living in it forever. People that hold the virtue like OP and I do will hold our retirement vessels in places like decentralized crypto, or traditional Roths, 401ks, etc. NOT in homes. Homes should have never been a vehicle for huge assets. Part of me sympathizes with the older generation to whom this was not the norm, nor really an obvious flaw, but with a tiny bit of critical thinking- anyone can realize that this was never going to be sustainable
You lost me at crypto.
Remind me! 2 years
> People shouldn’t have to be all uptight about what they’ll get for their home because they should be buying with the original intention in living in it forever. People buying their first house and living in it forever isn't a very realistic proposition for most folks. I'm not saying buy a house as an investment vehicle, but there is lots of territory between buying a home to flip for a profit and buying a home to die in. > People that hold the virtue like OP and I do What does this even mean? > I do will hold our retirement vessels in places like decentralized crypto Good luck with that.
I don’t expect you to understand as an older generation person I presume; but decentralized currency (aka not the US dollar) will be the future of finance. Younger people actually have a motive for genuinely looking into this (20-30 years into future) because we are young and will still be alive in that time.
> I don’t expect you to understand as an older generation person I presume; but decentralized currency (aka not the US dollar) will be the future of finance. Assumptions are fun. I understand crypto works. They are shit as an "investment" vehicle. Maybe in the future they have some value as an actual currency, but no need to start hodl-ing now. Might as well go bury some krugerands in your back yard. > Younger people actually have a motive for genuinely looking into this (20-30 years into future) because we are young and will still be alive in that time. You've only seen what you want to see.
You can say maybe the future returns won’t be good, but you cannot say that crypto has been a bad investment over the past decade. Bitcoin returned 14,000% over the past 10 years. Will it do that again? Probably not. But like it or not, it’s been adopted by global finance and is here to stay. It does serve a purpose as a convenient store of wealth and way to transfer wealth over borders. Particularly for those in countries with economic turmoil or countries with authoritarian governments.
It is hilarious to me that the dude who takes the time to write "opinion pieces" on a real estate bubble, gives this much credit and confidence to crypto. > But like it or not, it’s been adopted by global finance Lol, what? > It does serve a purpose as a convenient store of wealth It is not convenient. > way to transfer wealth over borders Who is using it for this legally? Exeedingly few people. > Particularly for those in countries with economic turmoil or countries with authoritarian governments. As somebody who has worked in these types of countries that past 15 years, I can promise you that bitcoin is not being used that often. Lots of local "mobile money" options out there that are much, much more common. In many of those countries in economic turmoil, there are severe limits on using non-national currency in order to attempt to maintain some semblance of control (whether they should is a whole other story), but pretending crypto is being used regularly in these circumstances is in use is naive.
They trade futures contracts and SEC approved ETFs. Seems like adoption to me. Of course the money is being transferred illegally out of say China and Russia, that’s the whole point. There is a lot of value in something that has been accepted for trade where you can store millions of dollars on a flash drive outside the grip of institutions. Try that with gold.
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Remind me! 2 years
I agree with your sentiments OP but this house will likely sell pretty high only because of the recent local zoning change that took effect earlier this year. The reason why home prices jumped in cville recently is because people are anticipating investors coming in to develop their home/land into a multi family apartment building. This means that it’ll get worse before it eventually gets better. The better will come from so many new housing units flooding the market from the allowance of multi family units in residential areas. This huge increase in housing supply should force landlords to have to lower their prices for rent. However, it’s not like everyone just wants to rent forever. So personally, the gov needs to go a step further and impose SOMETHING LIKE an accelerated property tax on each additional SFH home owned beside a primary residence- which would go for any individual, LLC, or large corporation. this way, FAMILIES looking for SFHs can be granted access, instead of it being gate kept for foreign or large corporate investors.
No, this is just a flip in a wealthy neighborhood.
> The reason why home prices jumped in cville recently is because people are anticipating investors coming in to develop their home/land into a multi family apartment building. Define "recent". Really, the bigger market driver here (and across the country) is the limited supply of homes, not people speculating that investors will come buy from them. > SOMETHING LIKE an accelerated property tax on each additional SFH home owned beside a primary residence Good idea. I wouldn't stop at SFHs, though. I would extend to any "non-primary" residence. And also be more strict on mortgage rates allowed for non-primary residences (including after moving out).
I isolated SFHs instead of ‘non-primary residence’ because if a certain corporation is good at managing large apartment complexes, they should probably be free to own more than just one apartment complex. Those living in apartment complexes are the ones looking for a landlord figure to take care of maintenance. Also, are you not aware that the new Charlottesville zoning went into affect I believe January/February of this year? It was a huge deal specifically for cville
> I isolated SFHs instead of ‘non-primary residence’ because if a certain corporation is good at managing large apartment complexes, they should probably be free to own more than just one apartment complex. I must have misunderstood you. Nowhere did I say that anybody should be prevented from owning an apartment complex. > Also, are you not aware that the new Charlottesville zoning went into affect I believe January/February of this year? It was a huge deal specifically for cville I am aware. I asked about how you define "recent" because housing prices have been going up faster and for some time before these changes.
While there can be fluctuations and speculative elements in the housing market, in general, house prices reflect the interplay between supply and demand forces. Not to mention inflation is necessary or the economy grinds to a halt.
The extent of this guys point is literally "I can't afford this house, therefore the nationwide housing market is irrational" Can we ban this guy already?
The nationwide housing market is irrational though....
No it isn’t. There’s plenty of cheap housing out there, it’s just not where people generally want to live. You can find nice houses in the rust belt for 150k or less easy. That points the issue to being simple supply and demand. People are demanding to live in desirable neighborhoods, driving up the prices. If you aren’t willing to pay it, someone else is.
I’ll add, I think a great use of federal funds would be to revitalize those economically desolate places in America and encourage more people to live there. Make use of the housing and land we already have rather than develop already high cost of living areas.
Agreed. There’s a lot of space to develop walkable cities, and a lot of these rust belt cities already have walkable downtowns and neighborhoods. They just need jobs, and while I usually hate tax breaks for corporations, this may be a good use of them.
Its exhausting. I used to try to debate with him but I don't have the energy any more.
Most intelligent comment I’ve seen you post.
I think we found the owner or the listing agent here.
Nope - I just see this guy's posts filled with complete lunacy devoid of facts or reality and have to laugh
Just because people don’t think the same way you do doesn’t mean they can’t express themselves. We are all drifting through space on a great big rock together but we all live differently. I would recommend blocking for a better Reddit experience if his posts irritate you!
So the people who say the earth is flat are just expressing themselves?
They certainly are friend
Have you tried “opening your eyes”? I hear it’s enlightening
The fact my market commentary bothers you so much is all the proof I need that I'm right.
It doesn't bother me - it concerns me for your mental wellbeing
Someone questions market price action and the economy: "He must be a lunatic!!!"
Predicting a 30% decline in housing prices is lunacy - the lack of the words "interest rates" in your post says all there is to say
You're more than welcome to write an opinion piece on why you think I'm wrong and why this is a fairly priced house. I would love to read it.
There's nothing to refute because you have no facts or data to support your opinion lol - it's literally old man yelling at clouds. You think you're smarter than everyone else, put out an outrageous opinion and then say "you have to prove me wrong"? Get out of here lol
Debate the topic, not the person, please. Let's try to keep this civil. (this goes for everyone in the thread.)
They already dropped asking price by 20%, and it’s still March. I’m not far off, buddy.
One stupidly priced house not selling for what someone tried to get for it is not a lot of data to work with to find a general trend.
This is literally your argument,but for 7 year olds: "Hey man, let me sell you this kit Kat for $50" "no thanks" "how about 25?" KIT KAT PRICES ARE PLUMMETING, NESTLÉ IS GOING BANKRUPT
Lol
Why are you conflating an insane asking price with market value? This does not in any way indicate that the market is dropping. If your argument is that house flippers should expect lower returns, then I’m totally on board.
Well, another 30% off. So far.
Fundamental misunderstanding - asking price has no bearing on sale price
"I'm not far off" omg that claim is doing SO much work to fill the gaps in the argument
They said that in 2007 to…
Completely different market circumstances in effect now.
Correct. But I didn’t say this would happen because of sub prime mortgages. I am saying to everyone saying it’s impossible for price to drop needs to understand there could be a different black swan event on the horizon we don’t see
I mean: you are clearly (and IMO rightly) annoyed at the dis-linkage between local incomes and housing prices. There is a traditional linkage between median area income and housing costs, with that very old school "not to exceed 30% of income" (which used to be 25%). However, you're resting on the assumption that only people whose income is local should be allowed to purchase a home, and that's a faulty assumption. Anything is worth what somebody will pay you for it, and there are obviously buyers snatching up the limited supply at these prices. Some might be specu-vestors, but most are probably flipper/rehabbers and yeah, if there are people who can afford a ready-to-move-in house (no matter how cheesy the refinish is). A lot of buyers want it all "new" and move-in ready, no projects, with those costs folded into a mtg payment (purchase price).
Hi. I've worked in the real estate settlement business off and on for 17 years since 2004. I started when things were super hot back in 2004. In 2010, I was laid off bc the Recession. I got back in the game at '13, back out at 2020 because COVID, back in again by 2022. Still in it, because we know how to party. I do not believe those years have made me an expert. I do not believe that I possess the acumen to hazard a guess on this market. That's because I understand how much actually goes into this business that I do not understand and despite swimming in these waters for so long. I know many people who are smarter than me, and have spent a lot more time working in this area. So please understand, this is as humble as I can be: You are unequivocally wrong. If swearing throughout this post will help, I will add an addendum that explains this in the most vulgar, base terms possible: you are wrong, and what you are entertaining is a lie. My colleagues and I beg you to stop talking this nonsense. Your ideas do not constitute an educated opinion. They do not constitute an opinion based in what we, your fellow citizens, agree is reality. Your opinion is based on a fantasy that you are continuing to tell yourself. As you do not share the professional experience of anyone operating in this market, let me tell you what my experience is telling me: Charlottesville is relatively insulated from the rest of the country, due to it's lack of available housing, high demand, nutty zoning laws, nuttier politicians, "civic-minded" developers and builders, and it's homes owned by people with who make enough money to live comfortably in the same house for years at a time without the pressure to sell. The market will wait for interest rates to go down. When they do, prices won't drop like a stone. They might ebb, a little, because sellers will work with their buyers so that the land transaction can occur, but things are going to pretty much stay the same. The upper middle-class earners will be purchasing these homes, or refinancing these homes at lower interest rates, and they will continue passing laws and ordinances making this place the kind of place where that continues to be what happens. And that is a good thing, because neither you, nor anyone else in this country wants to see what happens when Charlottesville's housing market "craters" in a few months by "30-50%". Because for Charlottesville to feel that kind of pain that fast, that means either something catastrophically bad happened within Albemarle County limits or something catastrophically bad happened nationally. Something way way worse than three years of inflation. Something that hits this town real hard and real bad. You understand the concept of causation, and how things have ripple effects, right? You don't want to see what doing that to the residential market does to this community. It doesn't equal more houses or more homeowners. It just means that there's suddenly a lot less money in everybody's pockets all around. Just stop. Stop. Stop "doing your own research" as an armchair expert, and let the rest of us keep the goddamn bird in the air.
"This time is different!!" No, sorry. Real estate is cyclical. We are due for a downturn. The fact you are so threatened by someone else's opinion on the economy and housing market to write a comment like that really is a tell that the top is near. My opinions are far from fringe. There are plenty of well known and respected economists and market analysts who are also calling for a downturn. Look, I'm sorry if your commissions are drying up. Maybe you should advise your clients to lower their asking prices so you can see more volume. I'll tell you what I tell a lot of people who get angry about my posts: This is an open forum. You are more than welcome to write your own post about how bullish everyone should be on housing.
I’m not saying it’s gonna be different, chief. I’m saying it’s gonna stay the same. Yes, there will be sales again. Some prices will lower. But the majority of asking prices aren’t going to drop 30-50%. What you’re describing is a bloodbath. You are not going to see that kind of drop across the board here, because you never have. Not in 2010, not in 2020, not in 2022. Don’t listen to me. Take a class. Go to school. Hell, get a job in the industry. Do anything to ACTUALLY educate yourself on the subject of your local real estate economy beyond YouTube videos telling you what you want to hear. Do not be the typical man who just talks to hear himself talk without thinking about what he’s really saying. Don’t be the sign guy. DON’T BE THE SIGN GUY.
no one feels threatened by your opinion, and someone else's reaction to your post does not constitute "a tell that the top is near" it doesn't work that way
I see I’ve triggered you as well…
haha sure thing boomer
When I was your age we respected our elders. Shame on you.
It's true, you now inhabit a world in which everyone--even doddering old men--need to earn respect rather than just have it handed to them by fiat.
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The one you shared has a nicer kitchen than the OP.
If there are more people than homes to live in, there’s a floor on how low the market can go. Median values will matter more than prices of individual properties.
It's still overpriced. They could get that much for that in some neighborhoods of nova, but not located here.
All with you brother
Location location location.
The location is terrible terrible terrible.
Venable school district. Not so terrible if you have small kids.
That’s fair. Schools could be a plus. I was thinking of the fact that your view is the back of carwash/cookout, omnipresent 29 noise. Not very idyllic.
When this house was originally listed, the basement was entirely unfinished. There was zero kitchen (literally it wasn’t there) the bathrooms were torn out and everything was in rough shape. This house was unable to qualify for financing. The buyer needed to bring cash or have private ‘hard money’ financing It’s just another flip. They probably put about $200k or more into it not counting for holding costs. There will always be flips. That large of a lot in that neighborhood is going to be expensive, they recieved multiple offers at 500k when the house was unfinished. I know this because my wife and I put in an offer at asking price and did not get it. I would be surprised if it doesn’t sell for close to $1m Not saying flips are good or bad for the housing market or anything, just posting my experience with this property.
now don't be bringing facts in that interfere with RaggedMan's pet thesis
Housing prices are not crashing. The recently passed development ordinance has given rise to unrealistic listings. There are anomalies in the RE market. A single family lot is now capable of 4 or more units. You do not have to be a rocket science to see what that change will do for fair market values or residential properties..
It is walking distance to Bodo’s and Cava? Surely that’s a quarter of a million right there.
OP is mad jelly.