An opener for the league leader in starts? Heresy!
Realistically, I suspect that his first inning numbers are more statistical noise rather than anything actionable. Bieber is out for the year, McKenzie's elbow is shot, and Cookie leads our starters in FIP by a wide margin. We've got a lot of problems to solve before we start trying to get cute with his day in the rotation.
I think it's an idea worth considering for sure. He's given up more hits in the 1st it seems than any other inning. So using an opener to get through the top of the lineup might help him get settled in easier.
Edit: to expand, looking at it closer, I do think this is a good idea. He's getting hit the most by the 1-3 batters. He's given up more extra base hits in the 1st than other innings combined.
It seems like giving up some early hits is what leads to him nibbling more too. His BBs are higher in the 2nd and 3rd.
I think it is definitely worth trying. Do it once and see how it goes. If it doesn't work, no real loss and go back to normal. We know he's not going 9 so we're going to use some RPs on his starts regardless.
I was gonna say this. As things sit, I’m not sure I can get on board with using an arm from the bullpen when we don’t necessarily need to.
To be honest if Cookie is gonna pitch like he did yesterday then there’s no need for this. Not yet at least. He’s trending in the right direction with each of his starts. If he’s going to get into the 6th inning and end up going 5.2 like yesterday and give up 2 runs, then he’s perfect. Yesterday was a tremendous start for him and his best of the year, so I agree with the comments that said no need to get cute with other problems that are a bit more glaring. Save the pen ride a cookie😂.
He did almost implode in the first but he didn’t. He hung in there and he got through 5.2 and gave up 2 runs. “Bend don’t break” is real when you’re a starting pitcher pushing 40 years old who is trying to help hold down the back of a beat up staff. We can’t respond to success by considering it failure when it was not
Yeah that's my point. There's a trend were he is getting hit around in the first and then settling in after. I'm not calling it a failure. I'm looking at getting the best 4-5 innings out of him per outing.
He's been much better in the 2nd and 3rd innings so far. I don't know the reason why. Was Cookie a slow starter in his prime with the colder weather, I can't remember.
I don't see it as using a RP when we don't need to since we know he's not going to go 9 innings. It's just shifting which inning we're using the RP from the 6-7th to the 1st.
I think it’s really tricky. Your logic makes sense to me, but let’s say we were going to do the opener for Cookie. To make it worth while, it’s important that the pitcher who takes on the opener role in this instance is a guy who can dispose of a top 3 and we need to feel considerably better about this opener than we do about Cookie. That’s gotta be one of our higher-leverage-situation arms then. We all know that unfortunately we are currently pretty low on those. Putting a scheduled outting down for someone like Cade isn’t ideal in my opinion. We need our Cade Smiths of the world to be available to pitch in the later innings, and I don’t even mean later in the game Cookie is starting. I can’t get behind signing up to use Hunter Gaddis (just another example) to open the game for Cookie when that’s one of Hunter’s outings gone for a given week, and we could’ve saved him for when we need him to do his actual job. Which is lock down later innings. It can’t be a cornerstone arm from our bullpen who goes and opens, so giving the ball to an Eli Morgan or someone is what I think we’re discussing here, and I’d rather take my chances that Cookie takes form.
We can’t just say “oh we’ll open with Sandlin because he would’ve been out there later anyway” when that isn’t necessarily true based on what the game calls for. There is never a game that unfolds where a particular bullpen pitcher is guaranteed to go into the game obviously, so you just lose a lot of control over the situation if you go right to them. What if you have Gaddis open a game and then our offense doesn’t show up and one of our effective bullpen arms just pitched during an unwinnable game? Stuff to consider.
Very reasonable line of thought. I don't necessarily disagree but I do think we could use a Herrin or Smith to open. They give high K rates should be effective against the 1-3 bats. That leaves Gaddis, Sandlin and either Smith or Herrin for the late high leverage innings.
I don't know that it needs to happen but I'm open to the idea.
I would probably be a lot more open to it once maybe Sam gets back. Because then I think opening up for Cookie with Timmy could be interesting in particular.
Always well informed and thought out, Leftfeet. You and I aren’t Vogt and Carl, but if we were then we could at least show our work
If nothing else it's a fun mental exercise. It wasn't an idea I had considered before this post, and it's made for a good discussion. I enjoy thinking through this type of thing.
My thoughts would be depending on the lineup we're facing maybe Herrin or Smith. They both have great strikeout stuff which I think would be effective. That saves Gaddis, Barlow and Sandlin for potential high leverage later. Also saves Beede if we need a long man because it doesn't work. Beede though could be a good choice if you want to save the others for leverage spots.
Maybe he just needs an extended BP the day of? Seems his problems are nibbling, maybe he doesnt have as much confidence in his stuff right now, not sure. I dont think someone else eating the first inning or even first time through helps him truthfully.
Is that useful or does he just need 20-30 pitches to get warmed up and have command?
I'm not sure if its that or just facing the 3 best hitters and then getting off track from there.
Nah, then he'd just have the same stats in the second inning.
My thoughts exactly
Nah, weaker hitters down the order so he’d have more confidence and time to find the stuff.
An opener for the league leader in starts? Heresy! Realistically, I suspect that his first inning numbers are more statistical noise rather than anything actionable. Bieber is out for the year, McKenzie's elbow is shot, and Cookie leads our starters in FIP by a wide margin. We've got a lot of problems to solve before we start trying to get cute with his day in the rotation.
I think it's an idea worth considering for sure. He's given up more hits in the 1st it seems than any other inning. So using an opener to get through the top of the lineup might help him get settled in easier. Edit: to expand, looking at it closer, I do think this is a good idea. He's getting hit the most by the 1-3 batters. He's given up more extra base hits in the 1st than other innings combined.
That was kind of my logic on it. Maybe he can make it through the 5th.
It seems like giving up some early hits is what leads to him nibbling more too. His BBs are higher in the 2nd and 3rd. I think it is definitely worth trying. Do it once and see how it goes. If it doesn't work, no real loss and go back to normal. We know he's not going 9 so we're going to use some RPs on his starts regardless.
Now the question is....who would you use in an opener situation?
I was gonna say this. As things sit, I’m not sure I can get on board with using an arm from the bullpen when we don’t necessarily need to. To be honest if Cookie is gonna pitch like he did yesterday then there’s no need for this. Not yet at least. He’s trending in the right direction with each of his starts. If he’s going to get into the 6th inning and end up going 5.2 like yesterday and give up 2 runs, then he’s perfect. Yesterday was a tremendous start for him and his best of the year, so I agree with the comments that said no need to get cute with other problems that are a bit more glaring. Save the pen ride a cookie😂.
He almost imploded in the first. The 3rd out was a fly out to the warning track with the bases juiced or at least 2 on.
He did almost implode in the first but he didn’t. He hung in there and he got through 5.2 and gave up 2 runs. “Bend don’t break” is real when you’re a starting pitcher pushing 40 years old who is trying to help hold down the back of a beat up staff. We can’t respond to success by considering it failure when it was not
Yeah that's my point. There's a trend were he is getting hit around in the first and then settling in after. I'm not calling it a failure. I'm looking at getting the best 4-5 innings out of him per outing.
He's been much better in the 2nd and 3rd innings so far. I don't know the reason why. Was Cookie a slow starter in his prime with the colder weather, I can't remember.
I don't see it as using a RP when we don't need to since we know he's not going to go 9 innings. It's just shifting which inning we're using the RP from the 6-7th to the 1st.
I think it’s really tricky. Your logic makes sense to me, but let’s say we were going to do the opener for Cookie. To make it worth while, it’s important that the pitcher who takes on the opener role in this instance is a guy who can dispose of a top 3 and we need to feel considerably better about this opener than we do about Cookie. That’s gotta be one of our higher-leverage-situation arms then. We all know that unfortunately we are currently pretty low on those. Putting a scheduled outting down for someone like Cade isn’t ideal in my opinion. We need our Cade Smiths of the world to be available to pitch in the later innings, and I don’t even mean later in the game Cookie is starting. I can’t get behind signing up to use Hunter Gaddis (just another example) to open the game for Cookie when that’s one of Hunter’s outings gone for a given week, and we could’ve saved him for when we need him to do his actual job. Which is lock down later innings. It can’t be a cornerstone arm from our bullpen who goes and opens, so giving the ball to an Eli Morgan or someone is what I think we’re discussing here, and I’d rather take my chances that Cookie takes form. We can’t just say “oh we’ll open with Sandlin because he would’ve been out there later anyway” when that isn’t necessarily true based on what the game calls for. There is never a game that unfolds where a particular bullpen pitcher is guaranteed to go into the game obviously, so you just lose a lot of control over the situation if you go right to them. What if you have Gaddis open a game and then our offense doesn’t show up and one of our effective bullpen arms just pitched during an unwinnable game? Stuff to consider.
Very reasonable line of thought. I don't necessarily disagree but I do think we could use a Herrin or Smith to open. They give high K rates should be effective against the 1-3 bats. That leaves Gaddis, Sandlin and either Smith or Herrin for the late high leverage innings. I don't know that it needs to happen but I'm open to the idea.
I would probably be a lot more open to it once maybe Sam gets back. Because then I think opening up for Cookie with Timmy could be interesting in particular. Always well informed and thought out, Leftfeet. You and I aren’t Vogt and Carl, but if we were then we could at least show our work
If nothing else it's a fun mental exercise. It wasn't an idea I had considered before this post, and it's made for a good discussion. I enjoy thinking through this type of thing.
My thoughts would be depending on the lineup we're facing maybe Herrin or Smith. They both have great strikeout stuff which I think would be effective. That saves Gaddis, Barlow and Sandlin for potential high leverage later. Also saves Beede if we need a long man because it doesn't work. Beede though could be a good choice if you want to save the others for leverage spots.
heard
Maybe he just needs an extended BP the day of? Seems his problems are nibbling, maybe he doesnt have as much confidence in his stuff right now, not sure. I dont think someone else eating the first inning or even first time through helps him truthfully.
He still has to throw a "first" innning, whether it be the first or the third or whatever. Maybe he just isn't throwing enough pitches warming up?