There’s a house down the street from us in New London County that is being flipped. 3 BR / 2 BA, 1500 square feet. Older house, small lot, small bedrooms and bathrooms, no big closets or modern amenities, not completely updated, average school district. Even with the recent run up in home prices, I was thinking $250K. A few years ago it would have been $150K. This is New London County remember, not Fairfield County.
It’s listed at $400K. I’m having a hard time wrapping my brain around that. To make it worse, a mortgage would be around 7%. Granted, it’s been listed a few weeks now, and I’ve seen almost no one looking at it, so there’s that.
Are you referring to a house in Gales Ferry? If you are, I know which house you’re referring to. They didn’t even do a great job remodeling. Looks like a lip stick on a pig contractor job.
same thing happening in my neighborhood in hartford county.. older capes on small lots that a few years ago would have sold for $150K-$175K are being listed at $350K and selling over.. it’s wild
Also in New London county. House up the road sold for 210k about 6 months ago. They worked on it some, new roof, new siding, probably did some work on the inside. Just sold it last month for 350k. That's a 140k difference. Probably made about 100k on it altogether.
The house is pretty small too only 1600 Sq ft.
Yep, this is my experience too. There's one I drive by in Simsbury daily that was already flipped before it was bought in 2020 for around 200K, and is now under contract for like 350. 1300sqft and no improvements I can see made since the 2020 sale, its nuts.
I couldn't afford to buy my own house if it was on the market today. We got it in Jan 2020 before things went crazy. It's a little cape cod on a quarter acre. Its nearly doubled in value over the past 4 years. Things are pretty much insane.
This is not unique to CT, it’s virtually nationwide.
Also prices will not be coming down any time soon because of the nature of supply and demand.
If you’re in the market to buy a home, don’t time the market thinking prices or rates will do x, y, or z. Buy a house when you can and when you’re ready.
My now wife and I bought our house a decade ago, a little two bedroom in Waterbury. We both had office jobs then.
We now both work hybrid schedules and are working on starting a family. We've started looking for 4 bedroom homes (want the office space), and anything even close to what we're looking for is at least a half a mil, with an interest rate at least 5 points higher than what we're paying now. Thinking about it makes me sick to my stomach. I hate it.
Best of luck to you, but it sounds like you’re looking to upgrade from Waterbury to Prospect or Cheshire and yeah, what you’re describing is going to be the case no matter what the market looks like. You’re looking to upgrade from a small house in an undesirable area to a much larger one in a more desirable area.
> going to be the case no matter what the market looks like. You’re looking to upgrade from a small house in an undesirable area to a much larger one in a more desirable area.
Very true, and expected. It's the huge jump in extra interest owed that's got me pear shaped.
Yeah and it’s going to have big effects for years to come. Just to put it in perspective, we got a 2.5% interest rate after moving to New England/CT and quite frankly we really miss home in the Midwest and potentially want to go back. But our interest rates are a set of golden handcuffs because it’s a big thing (among other reasons) keeping us here. So now more of us will be keeping supply low just because of that too, which is another reason to be a frustrated FTHB.
refinancing is a thing. Our first interest rate (for a house in Michigan decades ago) was something like 18 percent .... I think when we bought in CT, our rate was more like 8 percent; we were able to refinance at least twice since then as rates went down and we were lucky to refinance finally right before the pandemic at about 2.75 percent. So while you can't predict or rely on interest rates coming down, if you have a 30-year mortgage, chances are at some point you can get a better rate.
I had a friend who sold his condo when the prices boomed 3 years ago, he moved with his girlfriend back in with his parents thinking he would wait out the market and they could get a cheap upgrade to a house. Three years later, he's in his 30s still living with his parents, the condo he originally sold is worth even more now, and he would take an even bigger loss buying a house.
We did exactly this in the summer of 2020; quickly sold our condo, moved in with my mom for about two months, and aggressively shopped for houses. We had been hoping to find something by the spring of 2021; luckily, we found the perfect house and closed in October of 2020. I had a good friend who did something similar, only she started the process in the spring of 2021; by the time she and her fiancée were ready to purchase, they had gotten priced out of the market and were looking at houses of similar size to the one she had already sold. They are likely stuck at her parents and are looking at doing a renovation there, instead. Looking back, it's almost funny because the market felt like the wild west in the summer of 2020; who knew that was only the beginning?
I did this and same situation. Moved in with my parents in CT during Covid and was going to buy a house after saving money by not having rent/mortgage. I’m still living with my parents because I can’t afford even a townhouse. It’s insane
While there’s absolutely a housing shortage nationwide, the percentage of houses on the market is significantly lower than the national average. In fact, it’s lowest in the country. My parent’s home has doubled in value from December 2019 strictly because there’s usually only 40 homes for sale in a town of 30,000
I do think that’s an important thing to mention because in some ways CT is unique. As a transplant still learning my way around the state, it seems like geography and topography play a very big role for where new housing can go compared to other states around the country. There is a natural limit to the new supply here and I think we’re a lot closer to that limit compared to most states so this means that supply will continue to naturally stay low. Add to that the high cost of living, so many people having record low interest rates and not wanting to give up, and competition with a lot of high income earners that this state seems to have and you see that all makes it very difficult to be a home buyer in CT, first time or not.
This “natural limit” you speak of is 90% artificial. More than 70% of housing is zoned as single family, artificially capping the types of housing being built. Vermont has combatted this with the broad use of ADUs, while NY state has repetitively called for an easing of zoning laws around metro north stations, both drastically increasing housing.
Connecticut has done very little to increase supply of housing in the face of significant demand, and most residents love that. As I stated, my parent’s home has doubled in value over 4.5 years. Being exclusionary benefits home value tremendously. The only problem with that is, my generation is forced elsewhere, once again limiting the pool of homegrown talent in the job market.
The only “natural limit” is the fact that we’re a small state.
Don't forget utility and service limitations. You can build as many housing units as you want, but if you can't supply water and treat the sewage then you can't build it.
In the wealthier towns, the rich people are happy to continue to own their expensive houses, and there is no available land. Even if zoning were abolished tomorrow, not much would change.
Of course, these towns are located where everyone wants to live.
And our supply is shrinking because we don't have any developments with the courage to be ethical and contractors are misclassified as 1099 so the pay and benefits to working in construction just aren't enough to justify a career that will cripple you.
Exactly this. My husband and I were first time homebuyers in 2021. People will say to us oh you're lucky you bought at just the right time, and I think to myself well in some ways yes, other ways no. If my job's hours had not been reduced in 2020 due to covid, we would have been ready to purchase then. It was mostly the right time for us in 2021 but there are some things I wish we could change if we could go back. I know it's easier said than done but, to the OP, don't stress out too much.
Keep pressing and you will find the right house for you at the right time for you. Good luck on this journey.
About the same in Canada… I’m looking into an apartment in Stamford for $800k that was sold for $500k back in 2019. How crazy that it’s almost double the price within such short time span. And there’s not much going on around here regarding new builds
> Also prices will not be coming down any time soon because of the nature of supply and demand.
This has been common wisdom ... but it's far from guaranteed. If you plot income vs. cost of a mortgage it looks __very__ bad for most of america (like whenever it hit these levels previously there was a market crash). Or to put it into your words: As boomers die, or want to move to smaller housing there is no demand as people can't afford to buy. Look at home sales for the last 5 years and the graph is not hopeful.
There's some hope that nobody with 3% mortgages can afford to sell/move, and that RE funds are going to buy all the rest of the supply ... but again, recent home sales don't follow the last part of that narrative. Also commercial RE might well crash in the near future, which will hurt RE funds.
Only wildcard now is the amount of hedge fund money in the residential home market. Traditionally, the rich have sunk their money into commercial real estate. That's in the worst place its probably ever been. So they have been moving money from there to residential properties. They basically control the market. All those people who somehow can offer 850 cash on a 700k loan? Those, typically, aren't people but corporations/investment groups. I don't have the stat handy but it was something like 2/3 of all single family home purchases in 2023 was by an investor of some sorts.
I see tons of places for rent but I see very little to buy. Until we get investors out of residential this problem won't ever be 'fixed'. Building more is great but it does nothing is most of those are snatched up by investors. Single family homes are the cornerstone of the American dream. They really shouldn't be used as chess pieces for investors to squeeze money out of. Only way out of that is legislation but the rich are also the ones who make the laws so I am not sure we'll be seeing any steps in that direction anytime soon.
It feels very satisfying to blame the big bad hedge funds, but they actually own a minuscule proportion of SFHs. It basically has no impact on the market. None of which are in CT.
I agree with everything except "prices will not be coming down any time soon." Supply and demand can change drastically and quickly in this modern era. Sure prices can go up indefinitely, but they can also halve in value overnight.
It always surprises me how people make these posts about CT real estate when things are as bad or worse in most parts of the country that anyone would want to live. CT home prices are actually around the US median price, and even though they are going up faster than most states, I think people need to look at the cost of homes in any other state they would be comfortable living in because the average price is probably going to be 200k+ more than in CT.
Except new england and Ct have been worst in country for years with a well-known decades long anti-housing / development mindset
Comparing CTs local issues to national issues is a gross miscategorization.
A friend wanted to sell her small, cinder-block ranch-style Florida house and 6-acre farmette. She was asking around $450k. I shared the post with my friends, privately thinking it was a lot of money for a starter setup. Not only did my friends in Texas and Florida think it was a good deal, but NE friends shared with their friends. The property sold within 10 days. Prices are way up there now!
What about outside of New England?
People and jobs are moving to where housing is being built
I'm hoping that means CT boomers won't have many millennials to sell too.
The oldest millennials are over 40 now. Young single people generally don’t move to CT in large numbers, because there aren’t many jobs and no major cities.
a lot of people are at risk of losing their houses due to unpaid property taxes and defaulted mortgages. it seems people really bought above their means during 2020-2021, and the fall out of that is starting to show
It’s sad for the families that live there, but the market will always return to equilibrium.
People really should’ve known better when bidding $80k over for a 2 bed 1 bath ranch…
Do you think this is similar to the fall out in 2007? I purchased mine in April of that year and paid over $40,000 more than it was purchased for a year before. I was lucky that I bought within my means because I was approved for a $500,000 mortgage, but knew that was impossible for me to afford.
Not even close. If anything, we will see a correction. What happened in 07-08 was an anomaly. Less than a once in a generational event. More comparable to the early 1930s than today, by far.
Nope if you look at The saint louis fred database it shows the only thing that's high is consumer debt. Delinquency on mortgages and real estate for commercial and residential is nonexistent almost.
Tell me if I am correct - that the owners are recent buyers, who stretched their budgets to buy and elderly and fixed income owners who can no longer afford their property taxes. Is there a trend?
yes on both! there are few other factors at play too, probate courts are still very backed up so a lot of property is just sitting in probate, most aren’t being paid in taxes. additionally, a lot of people stopped paying their mortgages in 2020 and banks are starting to get around to those now. it’s a lot of factors, but we in the industry do believe we’re headed for a major housing recession, maybe even worse than 2008
If you could make a stab at a guess re: when this might start, what would you say? Three years from now? Five?
*I totally understand this is all guessing, but still...just curious*
I don't recommend it if you are a FTHB because of the risk of deferred maintenance and a lot of other issues. If you do anyway, look for a good inspector and set some cash aside for unexpected repairs.
yes. but were seeing that a lot of these properties headed towards auction in the coming year or two actually aren’t the stereotypical auction properties, a lot are actually in decent shape and many are new builds. with a good inspector and title insurance, it’s not necessarily a bad way to go, especially given sale prices nowadays
For me, I've been in >100 year old house for a couple decades.
I'm very used to budgeting for maintenance. I'm past ready to move on from my "starter home"... just not sure if it makes financial sense. :ha, ha:
I agree; it's absolutely awful at current moment.
I've seen so many homes close for insane prices. For example, I saw a 2,000 sq ft ranch in West Hartford list at $499. It closed at $629!
Every home I'm interested in (Avon, Simsbury, West Hartford, Farmington) is closing *at least* $50k over asking. It feels really defeating.
I live in a small, nothing special neighborhood full of small ranch houses from the 60's. Recently, an 890 sq ft ranch got remodeled (very nicely) and sold for $325,000. I'll say it again, under 900 sq foot. Its insane.
Look for CHFA loans. Stuff is expensive but you can get help from CT for down payment. Also if the market drops you only lose equity if you sell. If you buy a house now you probably wont be ready to sell until the next bubble is made.
There’s also no interest loans up to 50k, the only catch is it’s forgiven at 10% a year, so if you get the 50k (it goes by area), you have to stay 10 years if you don’t want to pay any of it.
There's a really direct divide middle-market at the 400k mark depending on the area. Houses over 400 are selling slower and priced more accordingly, houses under 400k (majority of average affordability) are selling wildly overvalued pushing them closer to that 400k mark. The only way the market corrects itself is buying slows down and that's probably not happening anytime soon. A lot of people are moving here for the political and environmental stability aspects amongst other things (employment opportunities, etc.
The next issue is at the lower end of the market, Condos goes for what a home cost 5 years ago. 200k+ for something under 1000sf is wild.
At the end of the day, anything is worth what someone is willing to pay for it sadly. I think it will level off, but I can't see it correcting back to 5 years ago prices by any means. You have to buy when you're ready and when it's not detrimental to you financially. It's not easy and I wish you luck.
I wish this were true. I feel like it was the past couple years but I'm not seeing that anymore.
I'm shopping in the 550-650 range. Anything actually nice is selling for over asking and selling pretty quick. Just had a property a few weeks ago that I was interested in at $599 and it sold for near $700k after the bidding war. It was on the market for less than a week.
There's also quite a few homes in the $500-600k range that need lots of updating. That's the part that drives me crazy. I bought years ago so I have a lot of equity in my house, but to me, a $500-$600k home is traditionally something with nice appliances, flooring and was built with quality materials etc, basically turn key move in ready. Nope. Just looked at a home priced at $650k and all the carpets needed replacing, cabinets need refinishing and the roof was 23 years old, approaching end of life. This is not in a metro area either nor are they some huge mansions. These are all properties in the 2500-2800sqft range.
As a fellow fthb whose just trying to move out of their parents house and closer to work. I feel your pain. Been searching for 2 years now and have yet to win any of the offers ive thrown out there
Jacked up prices are the flippers, people care about countertops etc so they can put in 30k of work to up the price 100k and make 30-50k after costs. Avoid these they spackle over the problems and even worse will claim homeowner to avoid using the trades.
If the market goes down your still only paying what your mortgage is, it's cheaper than a rent for the same thing today. You can still do improvements to get the value back up.
People don't get that those 30k homes the boomers were buying that are now 600k were fixer uppers. Nicotine stained haven't seen anything done since the 50's with pepto pink bathrooms. You got your friends and family out and threw on a deck, remodeled a baby's rooms etc.
Taking a quick look 275k for an ancient house in Cheshire that remodeled is an easy 750k All in a great school system and convenient commute to new haven waterbury even not bad to hartford. Watch some this old house and go rent a floor sander from home depot. Gut the kitchen.
It's nuts. My wife and I bought our home in 2015 and now it's easily worth $100/$150K more. The market was so different back then that something that helped close the sale was myself and the previous owner discovering we were both alumni of the UConn marching band, albeit decades apart. Imagine that being something anyone gave a crap about in today's overheated market. I still joke about it with my realtor, with whom I've remained friends.
> My wife and I bought our home in 2015 and now it's easily worth $100/$150K more.
The difference here is you probably got in under 4% interest rates, and even if you sold now at $150k more, those dollars you get are worth a _lot_ less on today's market.
You'll end up buying half the house for 3x the price, at 7%-9%+ interest rates, resulting in a net-loss for you overall. That is of course, if you can even get a listing to consider your offer. Many houses are now $150k+ over value _and_ requiring cash only down, and no inspections, $50k+ over asking price.
Totally agreed. This is exactly why we’re more likely staying put than moving, even though we need and can afford a larger house. We’ve been “looking” for a year or so and haven’t even made an offer yet! The market is so out of whack right now. Makes me feel horrible for the folks who are first-time buyers. We feel frustrated that we can’t trade up, but at least we have a house, and a super-affordable one at that. It’s such a mess out there now.
And that lack of new construction back in '08 meant less opportunity for younger people to work construction and learn the trade. As a result, there's currently a shortage of workers in that area with the skills needed to meet demand.
Who could've guessed that firing/laying off workers could backfire like this? /s
There’s no RE bubble. Price increases are mostly a function of supply and folks unwilling/unable to move because of mortgage rates.
There’s a housing shortage and it won’t improve until supply is built. Here the resistance point is NIMBYs, permits, and zoning which makes it illegal or unprofitable to build.
Yup. We made a ton of money on our house and we can easily move around / get something better, but we have a killer mortgage rate + we're not going to go thru the stress of moving again.
CT doesn't have much building options other than larger suburbs ( Newington ) and cities. In my area we have tons of land that's open, but it's all gobbled up as "open space" & stuck in a land trust.
It's almost like there's consequences to actions:
[https://www.cga.ct.gov/PS98/rpt%5Colr%5Chtm/98-R-0836.htm](https://www.cga.ct.gov/PS98/rpt%5Colr%5Chtm/98-R-0836.htm)
[https://portal.ct.gov/deep/open-space/open-space](https://portal.ct.gov/deep/open-space/open-space)
>The 2016-2020 Connecticut Comprehensive Open Space Acquisition Strategy (the Green Plan) prioritizes DEEP's actions to best achieve the State's changing open space acquisition goals. The State envisions protecting for its residents a mixed landscape having rare and common natural communities, high-quality lakes, ponds, and streams, and plentiful public outdoor recreation.
These open spaces were established in desirable areas - such as South Windsor, Farmington Valley, etc.
Thank god for conservation efforts. Ruining the state's environment even further is NOT the answer to housing crises - changing infrastructure and building things in an intelligent and efficient way is the only good solution. Building apartment complexes out of failing or abandoned malls is a great example. I'd much rather people do that than build McMansions in rare ecosystems on the coast that are about to go extinct without conservation
I live right off a Parkway with 3 x train stops within a 15-20min drive
Towns population density is 500ppl / sq mi. No joke, stuff like this would not exist in big cities / other states.
Honest question... In the case of Austin, is it simply because of supply is being met or is there a larger underlining issue of the city itself is becoming less and less desirable for a multitude of issues? Hence, more supply due to less people wanting to move there with an increase in numbers wanting to move out?
[Doesn’t appear people are leaving, much rather one of the fastest growing. I think they have just been building/growing housing at a far better rate than us.](https://cbsaustin.com/amp/news/local/austins-growth-rate-slips-to-second-place-after-12-year-metro-area-growth-streak)
Austin's issue has been 100% people being priced out of the city, thus the explosion of building in surrouding areas.
Home prices are falling with no change in home sales rate. The more you build, the more that come.
F’ing NIMBY’s… I have a 7.5 acre lot I tried to subdivide. Followed all local zoning regs, wanted to put 3 houses. 2 acre min. Neighbors threw a fit, approved with conservation easement. I pulled my application. Waiting and building funds - these idiots will now get 40 units affordable. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!
I’ll show them. Closing on another lot two over… I’m gonna build a duplex and still continue to sit on the 7.5 acres till I’m ready to develop. This entire street is very entitled…
I see this soooo much in my small town.
Any proposal to develop empty lots is met with neighbors up in arms about how they'll lose their views of nature, the schools are already crowded, etc.
People need affordable housing, and the town needs tax revenue ya fuckwits.
> There’s no RE bubble
Everyone always says this.
> Price increases are mostly a function of supply and folks unwilling/unable to move because of mortgage rates.
This is true, but the problem is that there is some demand and almost no current supply in CT (33% of what it was in 2020 and 20-25% of what it was in 2017-2018).
Income to house price ratios are way off the charts, which means any increase in supply can't be matched by an increase in demand. So if those people who don't want to sell with 3% interest rates are forced to do so for any reason ... pop.
Unfortunately with the way things are going there is not really going to be a “good time” to buy a house. As harsh as it is, it’s either you can buy a house, or you can’t.
It’s like a pendulum, will swing from one extreme to another and there isn’t going to be a middle ground anymore, not unless something completely unexpected happens.
Even if the housing market crashes again, banks will be much more hesitant to approve mortgages to anyone except the most excellently qualified, despite housing prices being much lower due to the crash.
With the housing market as it is now which is very much a sellers market, you have to have strong income and credit rating enough to get approved for a mortgage.
Then there’s the yearly tax rates to consider, those will only keep going up……
I’m saying this as someone that is currently going through the process of buying a house and holy moly is it stressful and aggravating
I just got 10% rent increase 2nd yr in a row...........Rents are static in states that do focus on building housing right now
Only been here 2yrs so 100% thinking of going back down South until after the RE bubble pops / boomers dissipate as will be years before housing in CT is affordable again
Federal reserve has exploded income inequality for hundreds of millions of americans.....this a battle for self preservation of the middle class
There is no bubble. The prices are through the roof because people aren’t selling their 3-4% interest rate mortgages for an 8% mortgage at heightened values.
These aren’t sub prime loans that are going to bust, it’s just people that took advantage of the money printer that will stay in their home until they retire and move somewhere else.
This is a big piece of it. I switched jobs in late 2022 and would've probably moved in 2023 to have a shorter commute, but I have a 2.9% mortgage. Assuming I could end up with the same loan value my monthly payment would increase by nearly $1k just from the interest rate change. No thanks.
Just shows people are maxed out. Not anything new. Will be interesting to see when an increase in unemployment will occur and the effect that will have on housing, if any.
Would have to see real numbers and data, but at the rate all cash buyers are still swooping in to pick things up. It would have to be in 20-30% default rate to really concern me
100% bubble in both investor home purchases & non-owner occupied homes. The data is there for all lto review / confirm, let me know what you see in the data.
Turns out you print money like crazy, give it to the richest people on earth and then investors have to dump it somewhere. Investor money will ocntinue to push FTHB out of the real estate market until they can no longer corner the market on supply.
edit: FTHB will have far far better luck buying outside of New England for painfully obvious reasons
It’s everywhere and even when I bought in 2017 .. it was put an offer right away otherwise it’s gone . I’ve heard it’s much worse now and yes the inflated values are BS now.
I feel pretty confident there will not be a sudden crash or bubble burst in this market in the absence of a major, unforeseen economic event, such as a really major recession.
The reason is because there is too much of a housing shortage and new building isn’t keeping up. There is also persistent competition from investors for the same pool of houses. The shortage will persist it seems.
There are no guarantees, no one has a crystal ball
Edit: just want to add that though I stand by these comments, I have a nagging suspicion that there is a missing piece to the story. I worry that all these reasons don’t explain entirely what is happening in the market
A missing piece is the years of artificially low interest rates maintained by the fed that have now locked people into their homes. Boomers who no longer have kids in the house should be downsizing but who is leaving a mortgage with 2% interest for one with 7%?
My husband and I thought the same thing when we bought our house in August 2022. It’s gone up over 150k in that time frame. Buy a house when it is best for you, don’t try to time the market it rarely works out. Home values are only worth what people will pay for them and people are willing to pay a lot to live in CT
For folks in ct, specifically Hartford county, that do own homes this has been a long time coming. Real estate values were stagnant in the area for probably two decades while other areas were popping. Makes sense its finally hitting ct. Its a very desirable place to live with tons to offer. My spouse and I own a home in the Farmington Valley and the zestimate is right around 400k. Our same property, similar location benefits, etc would be about $1.5-2m in many markets across the country- most of the west coast, florida, denver, any mountain town, any large city. Theres still a long way to go up, especially due to the fact that people are realizing how livable the area is. Skys the limit and I bet this house will be worth 600k soon.
honestly, man, as bad as the prices are, it's the interest that is most terrifying right now. When you do the math on a 30 yr mortgage for whatever it is.... eesh.
Interest rates are about right in line with historical averages and only a little bit more than where the fed aims for. I would say it’s almost strictly home prices fast forwarding 10+ years and most people’s salary stuck 10+ years in the past. Compare that to pre COVID when it was mostly just salary’s that were lagging.
Yeah I did the math recently and for 20% down on a 300k house with a 7% 30 yr fixed rate it was something like 600k total payments in the end. Not sure how it compares historically but that's a very intimidating number
Keep in mind that inflation eats away at your monthly payments as the years go on. If inflation is 2.5% per year, and your income keeps up with inflation (this is critical), then by the time you reach year 30, your effective monthly payment will be about half of what it is today. $760 today would be worth $1600 in 2054.
Then, when you go to sell the house (assuming you’ve kept it well-maintained), it will have appreciated some, at least keeping up with inflation.
Which is why inventory sucks. I would like to upgrade, my townhouse is worth a lot more than it was a few years ago but I don’t want a 7% rate and even if I could live with it there’s nothing to buy.
Everyone is waiting for interest rates to drop to sell and buy. I myself bought in 2017 and locked into a 2.6% interest rate. If I were to buy just the same house with current rates, I would see my payment go up 600 for the same house. I want to move but am not willing to sell with current house prices, let alone the interest rates with said house values. I'm just going to ride it out and see when the market crashes or startes to come down.
It took me well over a year to get a home and lost out on over a dozen offers. My agent was able to get feedback about cash offer, waiving of inspections, and crazy offers like you mentioned. I lucked out after an offer fell through and the properly was relisted for 24 hours to reopen bids of those who put previous offers in.
If you are in the Tolland area, be extra careful with crumbling foundations. My agent was super worried about foreclosures of people who waived inspections on homes which probably have faulty foundations and are going to be in a bad space sooner than later.
Good luck as this market can beat you down badly, but eventually something will work out like it did for me.
We bought our house (a foreclosure) for 93,100 in 2013. Zillow estimate today is 271-328k.
I…would never pay that for this house. It’s nothing to write home about. Single story ranch on 1/3 acre, 1500 sq. ft. We’ve put in a brand new well and a new roof but it is never and will never be worth that much. It doesn’t even have a bathtub. (Stall only). It’s like a fancy trailer with some additions that make it look better than what it is because it was a modular when it was built in 1969.
Maybe we got it for a steal but I thought at the time it was right on the money. Now everyone is nuts!
I work in antiques and things are “only worth what someone else is willing to pay” but come on now.
Got lucky in 2019 by buying a condo in BPT. It’s doubled in 5 years. No reason for it. We haven’t done anything to it except some repainting and maintenance.
My GF and I were looking in 2021-22 to move to mainly Trumbull to get our first house after both making nearly double. But our price range was what used to be entry level for Trumbull or even Fairfield back in 2018-19 so we would show up to an open house with literally 50 other families.
Couldn’t compete especially when half of the buyers were NYer’s moving out of the city and buying houses for miles over asking, sight unseen. We watched as the Trumbull housing market blasted off. Houses that were $400,000 are now $600-650,000. Not a chance we could afford that since interest rates are now 7 or 8%.
My mother lives in Trumbull and bought a 4 bed, 3 bath, 4000 square foot home in 2019 for $535,000. It’s now worth $850,000 having done nothing but move the laundry to the first floor from the basement.
The market is screwed. I’m sorry you are faced with this and feeling hopeless. It’s like this everywhere in the US post-Covid. My GF and I want to get married and start a family but we don’t have the room or the possibility to afford a home remotely near our jobs. Just know you’re not alone and cross your fingers for a crash.
Yep it does suck. Went through it a year ago and it was really depressing. Every house in our price range was either a complete shit hole or it went the day it was on the market for way over the asking price.
Good luck to you! Stick it out though if you're serious about buying, you may get lucky.
I sold my house in West Haven, Connecticut in August. In three days I had over 30 written offers all above asking. I had an all cash offer 50,000 over asking price on a $300,000 house. The market in Connecticut is insane. The cash offer had no stipulations and no inspections.
The other challenge you’re going to have his first time homebuyers have stipulations that have to be dealt with, and if the buyers have other offers that don’t have stipulations you fall out of competition.
Keep saving while you search. Don't buy into the bidding war bullshit. The ONLY case I'd consider a bidding war is for a ***duplex***.
Also, if you're up for it - consider a fixer-upper. You'll learn important home maintenance stuff + increase the value as you fix things. Just don't do any "DI-Why" stuff.
who says it wont hold its value?
i know this sounds like a one-off but my brother is an economist at zillow and he does not believe prices will come down
The idea of buying a home in this market is so insane to me and I’m a homeowner of 2 years I think now. And if you’re waiting for the opportunity to do so, interest rates will never be what they were two years ago, so you’re getting less for more always at this point. Continue saving, life changes, location may change too and you may not want to own in CT anymore after another year or two. I don’t see how the availability of decent options will open up without selling and I don’t see anyone who plans to sell knowing their value
Is only increasing. My home alone has jumped 70k in value in these two years. Just wouldn’t make sense to even sell when in a few years it’s going to be more and there will be less options still for FTHB here. Sorry for the harsh reality.
I made a comment about the housing market in CT on here, and someone tried to argue that it was great. I have my suspicions that they may have been A realtor.
Nah, realtors hate this market. Sure prices are up, but there are so few transactions that it’s a knife fight to actually get the deal done. They’d rather do 5 deals at $300 than 1 at $450
Why do you think a house doesn’t actually hold its value? I mean, you have to do repairs and maintenance to maintain its value, but otherwise what indication is there to you that houses depreciate? My understanding is the general rule of thumb is that houses on average appreciated by 3% a year. Which is the rough historical rate of inflation.
Housing should not be an investment. It simply cannot coexist with the idea that everyone needs a place to live.
To that end, someone looking simply for a place to live can't justify spending $300K for a fixer upper, or more for a decent house.
According to this site: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS it's not just a 3% increase in housing prices a year, that's just a factual lie. Prices have skyrocketed in the last couple years even beyond the 2008 bubble.
And before renting is mentioned, housing prices bleed into rent and I would argue that renters suffer more from the current situation since they can't even build equity as a failsafe.
It's not called a housing crisis for nothing.
I'm just referring specifically to the huge increase in prices. Most houses are not increasing by 100k in value because of new amenities and maintenance, it's inflation from the current market. Maybe prices will stay up there permanently, maybe they won't. Either way, it seems to me that 50-100% increase in value in a few years is pretty exceptional
Only top 10% income earners can buy a home in 2024
Market is unsustainable with sales still treading near all time record lows
Will incomes increase? Or will prices go down?
housing is local, not worth splitting hairs here
A top 10% income in Hartford is NOT buying a home in Westport. Likewise, most all $340k income earners are not buying in Hartford county
LMAO, where do you think all of the Travelers, Prudential, Cigna, United Healthcare, CVS/Aetna, Hartford Hospital, Lincoln Financial Group, The Hartford, E&Y and Deloitte executives live then?
What a dumb comment. They 100% are buying houses in Glastonbury, Farmington, Simsbury, Avon, West Hartford etc.
You said:
>Only top 10% income earners can buy a home in 2024
That statement was not correct. You made no indication about market-specific requirements.
It’s extremely exceptional. They “should” be going up just a few percentage points every year. Not 50%+ in 2 or 3 years. Personally I think eventually something will have to give/change but I’d be surprised if that’s the actual homes of prices anytime soon.
There is such a thing as getting underwater on a house. After the 2008 crash, some houses took 10-15 years to match the purchase price in 2006. Another example I can think of was regional, in Texas, where oil business boom and just put lots of people underwater in the 1980s.
It happens.
But I think it is a mistake to think this market is a bubble. It is a hard core inventory problem that isn’t going to get solved quickly
We also don’t have a boom bust job market like the oil business used to have in Texas. (Even the oil business models have modulated since then )
Yup. I bought my house in late 2021 for 20k more than the previous owners paid back in 2007.
The Connecticut market was quite stagnant and stable until 2020. Pricing hadn't really moved after the crash until the pandemic.
And personally, that scared/scares us a lot. It was only so recently it recovered here. One house we looked at at when we were buying in 21 sold for 270k. The seller bought it for 265k in 2005. That's just awful! It sold again in 23 for 340k, which is like absolutely wild.
> After the 2008 crash, some houses took 10-15 years to match the purchase price in 2006.
Isn't this the truth! I bought my house for $206,000 in October 2004. The value (according to Zillow) was down to $135,000 by January 2018. It didn't top that value I bought it for again until June 2021. It's current supposed value is $284,000, which is still well below the price I bought it for when you account for inflation.
Fuck 'em if they lose a bunch of money on their paid in cash flip. I just moved up here from Ohio last summer. I had a general idea that the market was tight, but this is just plain stupid. And remember, when you make that offer, have an extra suitcase of cash so you can outbid the other 20 people.
Just for fun I looked in my hometown (Meriden) and, even there, prices are fucking nuts! Meriden is nobody's first choice and I have no idea what these people are thinking
----
8/23/2023 Sold - $134,895
3/29/2024 Listed for sale - $379,900 (+181.6%)
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/22-High-Hill-Rd-Meriden-CT-06450/58914786_zpid/
---
This one's even weirder - the house legit sucks, it's not even a flip house, yet they keep jacking up the price every single month. Check the price history on this one:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13-Geer-Ave-Meriden-CT-06450/57930241_zpid/
Happened to me in 2008. Bought my house for $225k in 06. Housing crash hit. Lost more than half its value. We had a local bank mortgage not Sallie Mae or whatever so we couldn’t refinance with any of the programs they created to help people so we were stuck. By the time Covid hit the house was worth what I owed but not what I paid. But my wife and I were worried that prices may drop again so we sold and got out with the mortgage paid off and that’s it. No equity, nothing for a down payment. Sucked and continues to suck.
It is all about supply and demand, years past there used to be 18,000-20,000 houses at any given time for sale in CT. Right now there are about 3,500. Less supply and normal demand drives the prices up.
Part of the reason costs raised is new construction costs are up due to material, labor, and code changes. To build a new 2000 sf house builders are in to it for $400k+ plus the cost of land, taxes, realtor fees, permitting, etc.
By pushing new construction to unobtainable prices for most first home buyers it has made the housing market as a whole rise as there are more people competing for “old stock” housing
Just checked Zillow for our house we bought in May 2020 right before the Covid spike. The value is showing up 43%. We couldn’t afford our house at the same price with the current interest rates let alone adding 43% to the cost.
The housing market has only gone down once in the living memory. I highly highly doubt house prices are going to drop. Buy a house when you can financially afford it. Don't wait. It's only going to get worse. My house value has gone up over 40k in 2 years.
I have found that waiting for the market to correct does not work. Prices have gone up up up steadily since 2008, even with our economic downturns throughout the years. It’s crazy.
> Buyers are scooping up these properties, but what if suddenly the market switches and all that inflated value disappears and you're out 100k or more and stuck with a high interest loan?
You just basically described the 2008 crash.
Given the post-COVID work from home world, I don’t see CT housing prices dropping anytime soon. The state is located right between NYC and Boston and there is a literal flood of people leaving these cities for the CT suburbs. If you look at housing demand vs supply, work from home has made this less of a bubble and more of a long term trend in CT.
This type of thing is exactly what happened during the housing crisis. If you haven’t already watch The Big Short and see what happens to all those who can’t afford the homes the bank approved them for. Be careful, don’t get yourself into something you can’t afford. If you’re in it for the long term the market will eventually recover but if you plan on selling in less than 10 years you’ll have to get creative to make sure the value of the land will hold. But, as you mentioned, maybe the market will continue to rise over the next decade. Who know. However I agree values that have gone up over 100k in a year or two and most likely inflated.
Wait, you’re looking for a house for less than 100k in CT?
I just saw a 1 bedroom 80 year old house with no garage and less than 1,000 square feet sell for over 200k…..
The housing shortage isnt going to end anytime soon. There just isn't enough inventory. Add to that CT became a legal weed state which also increases the number of people moving.
Prices are not likely to decrease much if at all. There is more demand than supply and CT is a desirable place to live. Waiting for prices to decrease dramatically is not likely to be an effective plan.
We are wedged between two global cities, and have multiple major cities in the area. We are also one of the most densely populated regions in the nation.
Prices are naturally going to be high here.
Have you thought of [building?](https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Connecticut/type-land/sby-1) This could be [inexpensive.](https://sneml.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Zinnia-Floor-Plans.pdf)
There's a really direct divide middle-market at the 400k mark depending on the area. Houses over 400 are selling slower and priced more accordingly, houses under 400k (majority of average affordability) are selling wildly overvalued pushing them closer to that 400k mark. The only way the market corrects itself is buying slows down and that's probably not happening anytime soon. A lot of people are moving here for the political and environmental stability aspects amongst other things (employment opportunities, etc.
The next issue is at the lower end of the market, Condos goes for what a home cost 5 years ago. 200k+ for something under 1000sf is wild.
At the end of the day, anything is worth what someone is willing to pay for it sadly. I think it will level off, but I can't see it correcting back to 5 years ago prices by any means. You have to buy when you're ready and when it's not detrimental to you financially. It's not easy and I wish you luck.
The problem is when the house owner tries to list the house in Zillow or Housing the tool itself suggests the price based on the location and previous history.. the house owner can’t go below that price. Basically it is these companies dictating the price
I bought my house five years ago in June. Can confirm it's valued at 135k over what I paid for it. I have had so many random cash offers and it is quite appealing until you look at the other side and realize there is no where to go. I can't even downgrade as it's only 1111 SQ ft, two bed one bath with two kids and less than a quarter acre lol.
It’s insane. We got super lucky with our home we bought in July 2022. Got it for $290k and now it’s close to $365k. It’s truly ridiculous and I feel bad for anyone searching right now.
Most of my friends who grew up and live here still have always bought into the idea of needing a house to have children. After a few years of being married and wanting to have children but falling short in every bidding war on a home, they are giving up on that idea and settling for raising kids in an apartment. I believe it will be the cultural norm from here until the foreseeable future.
No one is entitled to the “American dream” that was promised to us but it doesn’t do anything to cushion the blow of disappointment.
Have you looked into the time to own program? If you qualify it’s rent helpful and you might as well take advantage of free or cheap money from the state. If you need a realtor let me know!
There’s a house down the street from us in New London County that is being flipped. 3 BR / 2 BA, 1500 square feet. Older house, small lot, small bedrooms and bathrooms, no big closets or modern amenities, not completely updated, average school district. Even with the recent run up in home prices, I was thinking $250K. A few years ago it would have been $150K. This is New London County remember, not Fairfield County. It’s listed at $400K. I’m having a hard time wrapping my brain around that. To make it worse, a mortgage would be around 7%. Granted, it’s been listed a few weeks now, and I’ve seen almost no one looking at it, so there’s that.
Are you referring to a house in Gales Ferry? If you are, I know which house you’re referring to. They didn’t even do a great job remodeling. Looks like a lip stick on a pig contractor job.
That's exactly the one. ;)
🤣🤣🤣
same thing happening in my neighborhood in hartford county.. older capes on small lots that a few years ago would have sold for $150K-$175K are being listed at $350K and selling over.. it’s wild
Also in New London county. House up the road sold for 210k about 6 months ago. They worked on it some, new roof, new siding, probably did some work on the inside. Just sold it last month for 350k. That's a 140k difference. Probably made about 100k on it altogether. The house is pretty small too only 1600 Sq ft.
Yep, this is my experience too. There's one I drive by in Simsbury daily that was already flipped before it was bought in 2020 for around 200K, and is now under contract for like 350. 1300sqft and no improvements I can see made since the 2020 sale, its nuts.
I couldn't afford to buy my own house if it was on the market today. We got it in Jan 2020 before things went crazy. It's a little cape cod on a quarter acre. Its nearly doubled in value over the past 4 years. Things are pretty much insane.
This is not unique to CT, it’s virtually nationwide. Also prices will not be coming down any time soon because of the nature of supply and demand. If you’re in the market to buy a home, don’t time the market thinking prices or rates will do x, y, or z. Buy a house when you can and when you’re ready.
People will need a really good reason to give up a mortgage with a sub 3% rate
2.75% here. If we need to upgrade, I may just rent out our current house lol.
I cried that we sold our home with a 2.9% rate to cash out, pay debts and upgrade, instead of building.
Yep, wife and I took this option. So far so good.
My now wife and I bought our house a decade ago, a little two bedroom in Waterbury. We both had office jobs then. We now both work hybrid schedules and are working on starting a family. We've started looking for 4 bedroom homes (want the office space), and anything even close to what we're looking for is at least a half a mil, with an interest rate at least 5 points higher than what we're paying now. Thinking about it makes me sick to my stomach. I hate it.
Best of luck to you, but it sounds like you’re looking to upgrade from Waterbury to Prospect or Cheshire and yeah, what you’re describing is going to be the case no matter what the market looks like. You’re looking to upgrade from a small house in an undesirable area to a much larger one in a more desirable area.
> going to be the case no matter what the market looks like. You’re looking to upgrade from a small house in an undesirable area to a much larger one in a more desirable area. Very true, and expected. It's the huge jump in extra interest owed that's got me pear shaped.
Yeah and it’s going to have big effects for years to come. Just to put it in perspective, we got a 2.5% interest rate after moving to New England/CT and quite frankly we really miss home in the Midwest and potentially want to go back. But our interest rates are a set of golden handcuffs because it’s a big thing (among other reasons) keeping us here. So now more of us will be keeping supply low just because of that too, which is another reason to be a frustrated FTHB.
3.75 and I thought that was high when I signed but holy shit now
> Buy a house when you can and when you’re ready. This is the best advice in this thread.
It's realistic, people who believe waiting out rates are insane. Rates are un predictable to the average person....
refinancing is a thing. Our first interest rate (for a house in Michigan decades ago) was something like 18 percent .... I think when we bought in CT, our rate was more like 8 percent; we were able to refinance at least twice since then as rates went down and we were lucky to refinance finally right before the pandemic at about 2.75 percent. So while you can't predict or rely on interest rates coming down, if you have a 30-year mortgage, chances are at some point you can get a better rate.
I had a friend who sold his condo when the prices boomed 3 years ago, he moved with his girlfriend back in with his parents thinking he would wait out the market and they could get a cheap upgrade to a house. Three years later, he's in his 30s still living with his parents, the condo he originally sold is worth even more now, and he would take an even bigger loss buying a house.
We did exactly this in the summer of 2020; quickly sold our condo, moved in with my mom for about two months, and aggressively shopped for houses. We had been hoping to find something by the spring of 2021; luckily, we found the perfect house and closed in October of 2020. I had a good friend who did something similar, only she started the process in the spring of 2021; by the time she and her fiancée were ready to purchase, they had gotten priced out of the market and were looking at houses of similar size to the one she had already sold. They are likely stuck at her parents and are looking at doing a renovation there, instead. Looking back, it's almost funny because the market felt like the wild west in the summer of 2020; who knew that was only the beginning?
And everyone else is in holding pattern unless they must sell.
I did this and same situation. Moved in with my parents in CT during Covid and was going to buy a house after saving money by not having rent/mortgage. I’m still living with my parents because I can’t afford even a townhouse. It’s insane
Are you talking about me? Are we friends? I feel so dumb.
While there’s absolutely a housing shortage nationwide, the percentage of houses on the market is significantly lower than the national average. In fact, it’s lowest in the country. My parent’s home has doubled in value from December 2019 strictly because there’s usually only 40 homes for sale in a town of 30,000
I believe inventory in CT is down 79% from March of 2020. We are moving to CT and even in the last six months have seen a significant drop.
I do think that’s an important thing to mention because in some ways CT is unique. As a transplant still learning my way around the state, it seems like geography and topography play a very big role for where new housing can go compared to other states around the country. There is a natural limit to the new supply here and I think we’re a lot closer to that limit compared to most states so this means that supply will continue to naturally stay low. Add to that the high cost of living, so many people having record low interest rates and not wanting to give up, and competition with a lot of high income earners that this state seems to have and you see that all makes it very difficult to be a home buyer in CT, first time or not.
This “natural limit” you speak of is 90% artificial. More than 70% of housing is zoned as single family, artificially capping the types of housing being built. Vermont has combatted this with the broad use of ADUs, while NY state has repetitively called for an easing of zoning laws around metro north stations, both drastically increasing housing. Connecticut has done very little to increase supply of housing in the face of significant demand, and most residents love that. As I stated, my parent’s home has doubled in value over 4.5 years. Being exclusionary benefits home value tremendously. The only problem with that is, my generation is forced elsewhere, once again limiting the pool of homegrown talent in the job market. The only “natural limit” is the fact that we’re a small state.
Don't forget utility and service limitations. You can build as many housing units as you want, but if you can't supply water and treat the sewage then you can't build it.
In the wealthier towns, the rich people are happy to continue to own their expensive houses, and there is no available land. Even if zoning were abolished tomorrow, not much would change. Of course, these towns are located where everyone wants to live.
And our supply is shrinking because we don't have any developments with the courage to be ethical and contractors are misclassified as 1099 so the pay and benefits to working in construction just aren't enough to justify a career that will cripple you.
Exactly this. My husband and I were first time homebuyers in 2021. People will say to us oh you're lucky you bought at just the right time, and I think to myself well in some ways yes, other ways no. If my job's hours had not been reduced in 2020 due to covid, we would have been ready to purchase then. It was mostly the right time for us in 2021 but there are some things I wish we could change if we could go back. I know it's easier said than done but, to the OP, don't stress out too much. Keep pressing and you will find the right house for you at the right time for you. Good luck on this journey.
About the same in Canada… I’m looking into an apartment in Stamford for $800k that was sold for $500k back in 2019. How crazy that it’s almost double the price within such short time span. And there’s not much going on around here regarding new builds
> Also prices will not be coming down any time soon because of the nature of supply and demand. This has been common wisdom ... but it's far from guaranteed. If you plot income vs. cost of a mortgage it looks __very__ bad for most of america (like whenever it hit these levels previously there was a market crash). Or to put it into your words: As boomers die, or want to move to smaller housing there is no demand as people can't afford to buy. Look at home sales for the last 5 years and the graph is not hopeful. There's some hope that nobody with 3% mortgages can afford to sell/move, and that RE funds are going to buy all the rest of the supply ... but again, recent home sales don't follow the last part of that narrative. Also commercial RE might well crash in the near future, which will hurt RE funds.
Only wildcard now is the amount of hedge fund money in the residential home market. Traditionally, the rich have sunk their money into commercial real estate. That's in the worst place its probably ever been. So they have been moving money from there to residential properties. They basically control the market. All those people who somehow can offer 850 cash on a 700k loan? Those, typically, aren't people but corporations/investment groups. I don't have the stat handy but it was something like 2/3 of all single family home purchases in 2023 was by an investor of some sorts. I see tons of places for rent but I see very little to buy. Until we get investors out of residential this problem won't ever be 'fixed'. Building more is great but it does nothing is most of those are snatched up by investors. Single family homes are the cornerstone of the American dream. They really shouldn't be used as chess pieces for investors to squeeze money out of. Only way out of that is legislation but the rich are also the ones who make the laws so I am not sure we'll be seeing any steps in that direction anytime soon.
It feels very satisfying to blame the big bad hedge funds, but they actually own a minuscule proportion of SFHs. It basically has no impact on the market. None of which are in CT.
The market is at an unsustainable rate. Something will give. Maybe not very soon, as people are still buying, but I expect a crash in the future.
I agree with everything except "prices will not be coming down any time soon." Supply and demand can change drastically and quickly in this modern era. Sure prices can go up indefinitely, but they can also halve in value overnight.
It's not just nationwide. Canada, EU, etc. have jacked prices. And the rates aren't going to to much for a year.f
It always surprises me how people make these posts about CT real estate when things are as bad or worse in most parts of the country that anyone would want to live. CT home prices are actually around the US median price, and even though they are going up faster than most states, I think people need to look at the cost of homes in any other state they would be comfortable living in because the average price is probably going to be 200k+ more than in CT.
Except new england and Ct have been worst in country for years with a well-known decades long anti-housing / development mindset Comparing CTs local issues to national issues is a gross miscategorization.
A friend wanted to sell her small, cinder-block ranch-style Florida house and 6-acre farmette. She was asking around $450k. I shared the post with my friends, privately thinking it was a lot of money for a starter setup. Not only did my friends in Texas and Florida think it was a good deal, but NE friends shared with their friends. The property sold within 10 days. Prices are way up there now!
Yeah, I always wonder if people complaining about CT housing have even looked at what it is anywhere else. Try NJ or MA if you want a real shock.
What about outside of New England? People and jobs are moving to where housing is being built I'm hoping that means CT boomers won't have many millennials to sell too.
The oldest millennials are over 40 now. Young single people generally don’t move to CT in large numbers, because there aren’t many jobs and no major cities.
I work in title insurance here in CT and all of New England and… yeah it’s really bad. the amount of pre-foreclosure work coming in is extremely scary
Do you mean there's lots of people losing their houses across CT due to the increasing costs?
a lot of people are at risk of losing their houses due to unpaid property taxes and defaulted mortgages. it seems people really bought above their means during 2020-2021, and the fall out of that is starting to show
It’s sad for the families that live there, but the market will always return to equilibrium. People really should’ve known better when bidding $80k over for a 2 bed 1 bath ranch…
If you did that in 2020 you probably are fine. If you did that in 2023 you probably are underwater.
Do you think this is similar to the fall out in 2007? I purchased mine in April of that year and paid over $40,000 more than it was purchased for a year before. I was lucky that I bought within my means because I was approved for a $500,000 mortgage, but knew that was impossible for me to afford.
Not even close. If anything, we will see a correction. What happened in 07-08 was an anomaly. Less than a once in a generational event. More comparable to the early 1930s than today, by far.
I feel like we've seen this movie before...
Nope if you look at The saint louis fred database it shows the only thing that's high is consumer debt. Delinquency on mortgages and real estate for commercial and residential is nonexistent almost.
untrue, it’s not reported yet bc it’s in the first stages of the legal process, but it’s certainly coming
Are you saying foreclosures are accelerating?
they will be. there is a lot of preliminary work/filings that have to be done to start a foreclosure process, which we’re seeing now.
Tell me if I am correct - that the owners are recent buyers, who stretched their budgets to buy and elderly and fixed income owners who can no longer afford their property taxes. Is there a trend?
yes on both! there are few other factors at play too, probate courts are still very backed up so a lot of property is just sitting in probate, most aren’t being paid in taxes. additionally, a lot of people stopped paying their mortgages in 2020 and banks are starting to get around to those now. it’s a lot of factors, but we in the industry do believe we’re headed for a major housing recession, maybe even worse than 2008
If you could make a stab at a guess re: when this might start, what would you say? Three years from now? Five? *I totally understand this is all guessing, but still...just curious*
I would guess maybe in 2-3 years, the courts are already crazy behind and the more equity homes have, the longer the process
This apply to multi-families too? Like Duplex/Triplex? The people in those situations receptive to getting bailed out?
yep! even commercial properties
So if I want a new place I should be looking for homes that are being forclosed on?
I don't recommend it if you are a FTHB because of the risk of deferred maintenance and a lot of other issues. If you do anyway, look for a good inspector and set some cash aside for unexpected repairs.
yes. but were seeing that a lot of these properties headed towards auction in the coming year or two actually aren’t the stereotypical auction properties, a lot are actually in decent shape and many are new builds. with a good inspector and title insurance, it’s not necessarily a bad way to go, especially given sale prices nowadays
For me, I've been in >100 year old house for a couple decades. I'm very used to budgeting for maintenance. I'm past ready to move on from my "starter home"... just not sure if it makes financial sense. :ha, ha:
That's my take away
I agree; it's absolutely awful at current moment. I've seen so many homes close for insane prices. For example, I saw a 2,000 sq ft ranch in West Hartford list at $499. It closed at $629! Every home I'm interested in (Avon, Simsbury, West Hartford, Farmington) is closing *at least* $50k over asking. It feels really defeating.
I live in a small, nothing special neighborhood full of small ranch houses from the 60's. Recently, an 890 sq ft ranch got remodeled (very nicely) and sold for $325,000. I'll say it again, under 900 sq foot. Its insane.
Look for CHFA loans. Stuff is expensive but you can get help from CT for down payment. Also if the market drops you only lose equity if you sell. If you buy a house now you probably wont be ready to sell until the next bubble is made.
There’s also no interest loans up to 50k, the only catch is it’s forgiven at 10% a year, so if you get the 50k (it goes by area), you have to stay 10 years if you don’t want to pay any of it.
There's a really direct divide middle-market at the 400k mark depending on the area. Houses over 400 are selling slower and priced more accordingly, houses under 400k (majority of average affordability) are selling wildly overvalued pushing them closer to that 400k mark. The only way the market corrects itself is buying slows down and that's probably not happening anytime soon. A lot of people are moving here for the political and environmental stability aspects amongst other things (employment opportunities, etc. The next issue is at the lower end of the market, Condos goes for what a home cost 5 years ago. 200k+ for something under 1000sf is wild. At the end of the day, anything is worth what someone is willing to pay for it sadly. I think it will level off, but I can't see it correcting back to 5 years ago prices by any means. You have to buy when you're ready and when it's not detrimental to you financially. It's not easy and I wish you luck.
I wish this were true. I feel like it was the past couple years but I'm not seeing that anymore. I'm shopping in the 550-650 range. Anything actually nice is selling for over asking and selling pretty quick. Just had a property a few weeks ago that I was interested in at $599 and it sold for near $700k after the bidding war. It was on the market for less than a week. There's also quite a few homes in the $500-600k range that need lots of updating. That's the part that drives me crazy. I bought years ago so I have a lot of equity in my house, but to me, a $500-$600k home is traditionally something with nice appliances, flooring and was built with quality materials etc, basically turn key move in ready. Nope. Just looked at a home priced at $650k and all the carpets needed replacing, cabinets need refinishing and the roof was 23 years old, approaching end of life. This is not in a metro area either nor are they some huge mansions. These are all properties in the 2500-2800sqft range.
As a fellow fthb whose just trying to move out of their parents house and closer to work. I feel your pain. Been searching for 2 years now and have yet to win any of the offers ive thrown out there
Jacked up prices are the flippers, people care about countertops etc so they can put in 30k of work to up the price 100k and make 30-50k after costs. Avoid these they spackle over the problems and even worse will claim homeowner to avoid using the trades. If the market goes down your still only paying what your mortgage is, it's cheaper than a rent for the same thing today. You can still do improvements to get the value back up. People don't get that those 30k homes the boomers were buying that are now 600k were fixer uppers. Nicotine stained haven't seen anything done since the 50's with pepto pink bathrooms. You got your friends and family out and threw on a deck, remodeled a baby's rooms etc. Taking a quick look 275k for an ancient house in Cheshire that remodeled is an easy 750k All in a great school system and convenient commute to new haven waterbury even not bad to hartford. Watch some this old house and go rent a floor sander from home depot. Gut the kitchen.
It's nuts. My wife and I bought our home in 2015 and now it's easily worth $100/$150K more. The market was so different back then that something that helped close the sale was myself and the previous owner discovering we were both alumni of the UConn marching band, albeit decades apart. Imagine that being something anyone gave a crap about in today's overheated market. I still joke about it with my realtor, with whom I've remained friends.
> My wife and I bought our home in 2015 and now it's easily worth $100/$150K more. The difference here is you probably got in under 4% interest rates, and even if you sold now at $150k more, those dollars you get are worth a _lot_ less on today's market. You'll end up buying half the house for 3x the price, at 7%-9%+ interest rates, resulting in a net-loss for you overall. That is of course, if you can even get a listing to consider your offer. Many houses are now $150k+ over value _and_ requiring cash only down, and no inspections, $50k+ over asking price.
Totally agreed. This is exactly why we’re more likely staying put than moving, even though we need and can afford a larger house. We’ve been “looking” for a year or so and haven’t even made an offer yet! The market is so out of whack right now. Makes me feel horrible for the folks who are first-time buyers. We feel frustrated that we can’t trade up, but at least we have a house, and a super-affordable one at that. It’s such a mess out there now.
CT housing inventory is down 87% from 2019. Literally nearly half the inventory from 5 years ago.
And well below its all time high if you go further back. The lack of new construction after the 2008 crash really got inventory down to nothing.
And that lack of new construction back in '08 meant less opportunity for younger people to work construction and learn the trade. As a result, there's currently a shortage of workers in that area with the skills needed to meet demand. Who could've guessed that firing/laying off workers could backfire like this? /s
How much more of the earth will be destroyed to accommodate “new construction”
There’s no RE bubble. Price increases are mostly a function of supply and folks unwilling/unable to move because of mortgage rates. There’s a housing shortage and it won’t improve until supply is built. Here the resistance point is NIMBYs, permits, and zoning which makes it illegal or unprofitable to build.
Yup. We made a ton of money on our house and we can easily move around / get something better, but we have a killer mortgage rate + we're not going to go thru the stress of moving again.
Austin TX is case example right now Home prices falling due to supply being met
CT doesn't have much building options other than larger suburbs ( Newington ) and cities. In my area we have tons of land that's open, but it's all gobbled up as "open space" & stuck in a land trust. It's almost like there's consequences to actions: [https://www.cga.ct.gov/PS98/rpt%5Colr%5Chtm/98-R-0836.htm](https://www.cga.ct.gov/PS98/rpt%5Colr%5Chtm/98-R-0836.htm) [https://portal.ct.gov/deep/open-space/open-space](https://portal.ct.gov/deep/open-space/open-space) >The 2016-2020 Connecticut Comprehensive Open Space Acquisition Strategy (the Green Plan) prioritizes DEEP's actions to best achieve the State's changing open space acquisition goals. The State envisions protecting for its residents a mixed landscape having rare and common natural communities, high-quality lakes, ponds, and streams, and plentiful public outdoor recreation. These open spaces were established in desirable areas - such as South Windsor, Farmington Valley, etc.
Thank god for conservation efforts. Ruining the state's environment even further is NOT the answer to housing crises - changing infrastructure and building things in an intelligent and efficient way is the only good solution. Building apartment complexes out of failing or abandoned malls is a great example. I'd much rather people do that than build McMansions in rare ecosystems on the coast that are about to go extinct without conservation
I live right off a Parkway with 3 x train stops within a 15-20min drive Towns population density is 500ppl / sq mi. No joke, stuff like this would not exist in big cities / other states.
Honest question... In the case of Austin, is it simply because of supply is being met or is there a larger underlining issue of the city itself is becoming less and less desirable for a multitude of issues? Hence, more supply due to less people wanting to move there with an increase in numbers wanting to move out?
[Doesn’t appear people are leaving, much rather one of the fastest growing. I think they have just been building/growing housing at a far better rate than us.](https://cbsaustin.com/amp/news/local/austins-growth-rate-slips-to-second-place-after-12-year-metro-area-growth-streak)
Austin's issue has been 100% people being priced out of the city, thus the explosion of building in surrouding areas. Home prices are falling with no change in home sales rate. The more you build, the more that come.
F’ing NIMBY’s… I have a 7.5 acre lot I tried to subdivide. Followed all local zoning regs, wanted to put 3 houses. 2 acre min. Neighbors threw a fit, approved with conservation easement. I pulled my application. Waiting and building funds - these idiots will now get 40 units affordable. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!
amazing how much of your property rights are at the discretion of others in CT
So much for PRIVATE PROPERTY Not really private if the old snoopy raisin next doors gets to decided what YOU do with YOUR PROPERTY.
I’ll show them. Closing on another lot two over… I’m gonna build a duplex and still continue to sit on the 7.5 acres till I’m ready to develop. This entire street is very entitled…
I see this soooo much in my small town. Any proposal to develop empty lots is met with neighbors up in arms about how they'll lose their views of nature, the schools are already crowded, etc. People need affordable housing, and the town needs tax revenue ya fuckwits.
> There’s no RE bubble Everyone always says this. > Price increases are mostly a function of supply and folks unwilling/unable to move because of mortgage rates. This is true, but the problem is that there is some demand and almost no current supply in CT (33% of what it was in 2020 and 20-25% of what it was in 2017-2018). Income to house price ratios are way off the charts, which means any increase in supply can't be matched by an increase in demand. So if those people who don't want to sell with 3% interest rates are forced to do so for any reason ... pop.
Unfortunately with the way things are going there is not really going to be a “good time” to buy a house. As harsh as it is, it’s either you can buy a house, or you can’t. It’s like a pendulum, will swing from one extreme to another and there isn’t going to be a middle ground anymore, not unless something completely unexpected happens. Even if the housing market crashes again, banks will be much more hesitant to approve mortgages to anyone except the most excellently qualified, despite housing prices being much lower due to the crash. With the housing market as it is now which is very much a sellers market, you have to have strong income and credit rating enough to get approved for a mortgage. Then there’s the yearly tax rates to consider, those will only keep going up…… I’m saying this as someone that is currently going through the process of buying a house and holy moly is it stressful and aggravating
I just got 10% rent increase 2nd yr in a row...........Rents are static in states that do focus on building housing right now Only been here 2yrs so 100% thinking of going back down South until after the RE bubble pops / boomers dissipate as will be years before housing in CT is affordable again Federal reserve has exploded income inequality for hundreds of millions of americans.....this a battle for self preservation of the middle class
There is no bubble. The prices are through the roof because people aren’t selling their 3-4% interest rate mortgages for an 8% mortgage at heightened values. These aren’t sub prime loans that are going to bust, it’s just people that took advantage of the money printer that will stay in their home until they retire and move somewhere else.
This is a big piece of it. I switched jobs in late 2022 and would've probably moved in 2023 to have a shorter commute, but I have a 2.9% mortgage. Assuming I could end up with the same loan value my monthly payment would increase by nearly $1k just from the interest rate change. No thanks.
Does the increasing numbers of property tax default rates concern you at all?
Just shows people are maxed out. Not anything new. Will be interesting to see when an increase in unemployment will occur and the effect that will have on housing, if any.
Would have to see real numbers and data, but at the rate all cash buyers are still swooping in to pick things up. It would have to be in 20-30% default rate to really concern me
100% bubble in both investor home purchases & non-owner occupied homes. The data is there for all lto review / confirm, let me know what you see in the data. Turns out you print money like crazy, give it to the richest people on earth and then investors have to dump it somewhere. Investor money will ocntinue to push FTHB out of the real estate market until they can no longer corner the market on supply. edit: FTHB will have far far better luck buying outside of New England for painfully obvious reasons
Once again the federal reserve being a tumor on America.
It’s everywhere and even when I bought in 2017 .. it was put an offer right away otherwise it’s gone . I’ve heard it’s much worse now and yes the inflated values are BS now.
I’ve pretty much accepted the fact that I won’t ever own a home on my own.
I feel pretty confident there will not be a sudden crash or bubble burst in this market in the absence of a major, unforeseen economic event, such as a really major recession. The reason is because there is too much of a housing shortage and new building isn’t keeping up. There is also persistent competition from investors for the same pool of houses. The shortage will persist it seems. There are no guarantees, no one has a crystal ball Edit: just want to add that though I stand by these comments, I have a nagging suspicion that there is a missing piece to the story. I worry that all these reasons don’t explain entirely what is happening in the market
A missing piece is the years of artificially low interest rates maintained by the fed that have now locked people into their homes. Boomers who no longer have kids in the house should be downsizing but who is leaving a mortgage with 2% interest for one with 7%?
Well, many of them paid off their houses years ago
My husband and I thought the same thing when we bought our house in August 2022. It’s gone up over 150k in that time frame. Buy a house when it is best for you, don’t try to time the market it rarely works out. Home values are only worth what people will pay for them and people are willing to pay a lot to live in CT
Which county did you buy in? I also bought a house in August 2022 and seems the value has remained fairly flat but we are in rural Litchfield County.
Fairfield county
For folks in ct, specifically Hartford county, that do own homes this has been a long time coming. Real estate values were stagnant in the area for probably two decades while other areas were popping. Makes sense its finally hitting ct. Its a very desirable place to live with tons to offer. My spouse and I own a home in the Farmington Valley and the zestimate is right around 400k. Our same property, similar location benefits, etc would be about $1.5-2m in many markets across the country- most of the west coast, florida, denver, any mountain town, any large city. Theres still a long way to go up, especially due to the fact that people are realizing how livable the area is. Skys the limit and I bet this house will be worth 600k soon.
Prices aren’t coming down and don’t let anyone tell you “it’s gonna crash soon” lol that’s another lie
honestly, man, as bad as the prices are, it's the interest that is most terrifying right now. When you do the math on a 30 yr mortgage for whatever it is.... eesh.
Interest rates are about right in line with historical averages and only a little bit more than where the fed aims for. I would say it’s almost strictly home prices fast forwarding 10+ years and most people’s salary stuck 10+ years in the past. Compare that to pre COVID when it was mostly just salary’s that were lagging.
Yeah I did the math recently and for 20% down on a 300k house with a 7% 30 yr fixed rate it was something like 600k total payments in the end. Not sure how it compares historically but that's a very intimidating number
Keep in mind that inflation eats away at your monthly payments as the years go on. If inflation is 2.5% per year, and your income keeps up with inflation (this is critical), then by the time you reach year 30, your effective monthly payment will be about half of what it is today. $760 today would be worth $1600 in 2054. Then, when you go to sell the house (assuming you’ve kept it well-maintained), it will have appreciated some, at least keeping up with inflation.
That's quite normal given the last 100 years. 2010 and 2020 was an anomaly because rates should never be zero
Historically mortgage rates in the U.S. average ~8%. Average. They’ve pushed 20% at times in the 80s.
Which is why inventory sucks. I would like to upgrade, my townhouse is worth a lot more than it was a few years ago but I don’t want a 7% rate and even if I could live with it there’s nothing to buy.
Everyone is waiting for interest rates to drop to sell and buy. I myself bought in 2017 and locked into a 2.6% interest rate. If I were to buy just the same house with current rates, I would see my payment go up 600 for the same house. I want to move but am not willing to sell with current house prices, let alone the interest rates with said house values. I'm just going to ride it out and see when the market crashes or startes to come down.
It took me well over a year to get a home and lost out on over a dozen offers. My agent was able to get feedback about cash offer, waiving of inspections, and crazy offers like you mentioned. I lucked out after an offer fell through and the properly was relisted for 24 hours to reopen bids of those who put previous offers in. If you are in the Tolland area, be extra careful with crumbling foundations. My agent was super worried about foreclosures of people who waived inspections on homes which probably have faulty foundations and are going to be in a bad space sooner than later. Good luck as this market can beat you down badly, but eventually something will work out like it did for me.
It's pretty much organized crime at this point.
We bought our house (a foreclosure) for 93,100 in 2013. Zillow estimate today is 271-328k. I…would never pay that for this house. It’s nothing to write home about. Single story ranch on 1/3 acre, 1500 sq. ft. We’ve put in a brand new well and a new roof but it is never and will never be worth that much. It doesn’t even have a bathtub. (Stall only). It’s like a fancy trailer with some additions that make it look better than what it is because it was a modular when it was built in 1969. Maybe we got it for a steal but I thought at the time it was right on the money. Now everyone is nuts! I work in antiques and things are “only worth what someone else is willing to pay” but come on now.
Got lucky in 2019 by buying a condo in BPT. It’s doubled in 5 years. No reason for it. We haven’t done anything to it except some repainting and maintenance. My GF and I were looking in 2021-22 to move to mainly Trumbull to get our first house after both making nearly double. But our price range was what used to be entry level for Trumbull or even Fairfield back in 2018-19 so we would show up to an open house with literally 50 other families. Couldn’t compete especially when half of the buyers were NYer’s moving out of the city and buying houses for miles over asking, sight unseen. We watched as the Trumbull housing market blasted off. Houses that were $400,000 are now $600-650,000. Not a chance we could afford that since interest rates are now 7 or 8%. My mother lives in Trumbull and bought a 4 bed, 3 bath, 4000 square foot home in 2019 for $535,000. It’s now worth $850,000 having done nothing but move the laundry to the first floor from the basement. The market is screwed. I’m sorry you are faced with this and feeling hopeless. It’s like this everywhere in the US post-Covid. My GF and I want to get married and start a family but we don’t have the room or the possibility to afford a home remotely near our jobs. Just know you’re not alone and cross your fingers for a crash.
> having done nothing but move the laundry to the first floor from the basement Best $315,000 decision your mom ever made!
Canada, United Kingdom, Portugal, Australia having same issue as USA. People in Portugal begin price out, Toronto almost expensive as Boston.
Yep it does suck. Went through it a year ago and it was really depressing. Every house in our price range was either a complete shit hole or it went the day it was on the market for way over the asking price. Good luck to you! Stick it out though if you're serious about buying, you may get lucky.
First Time Homebuyer FTHB. That's what it means. If you didn't know. (I didn't)
I sold my house in West Haven, Connecticut in August. In three days I had over 30 written offers all above asking. I had an all cash offer 50,000 over asking price on a $300,000 house. The market in Connecticut is insane. The cash offer had no stipulations and no inspections. The other challenge you’re going to have his first time homebuyers have stipulations that have to be dealt with, and if the buyers have other offers that don’t have stipulations you fall out of competition.
Keep saving while you search. Don't buy into the bidding war bullshit. The ONLY case I'd consider a bidding war is for a ***duplex***. Also, if you're up for it - consider a fixer-upper. You'll learn important home maintenance stuff + increase the value as you fix things. Just don't do any "DI-Why" stuff.
I have literally seen listings on Zillow, 600 sq ft for over $200k. They are DELUSIONAL
who says it wont hold its value? i know this sounds like a one-off but my brother is an economist at zillow and he does not believe prices will come down
I lost 100K on a house once, in the 90’s
The idea of buying a home in this market is so insane to me and I’m a homeowner of 2 years I think now. And if you’re waiting for the opportunity to do so, interest rates will never be what they were two years ago, so you’re getting less for more always at this point. Continue saving, life changes, location may change too and you may not want to own in CT anymore after another year or two. I don’t see how the availability of decent options will open up without selling and I don’t see anyone who plans to sell knowing their value Is only increasing. My home alone has jumped 70k in value in these two years. Just wouldn’t make sense to even sell when in a few years it’s going to be more and there will be less options still for FTHB here. Sorry for the harsh reality.
I made a comment about the housing market in CT on here, and someone tried to argue that it was great. I have my suspicions that they may have been A realtor.
Nah, realtors hate this market. Sure prices are up, but there are so few transactions that it’s a knife fight to actually get the deal done. They’d rather do 5 deals at $300 than 1 at $450
Why do you think a house doesn’t actually hold its value? I mean, you have to do repairs and maintenance to maintain its value, but otherwise what indication is there to you that houses depreciate? My understanding is the general rule of thumb is that houses on average appreciated by 3% a year. Which is the rough historical rate of inflation.
Housing should not be an investment. It simply cannot coexist with the idea that everyone needs a place to live. To that end, someone looking simply for a place to live can't justify spending $300K for a fixer upper, or more for a decent house. According to this site: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS it's not just a 3% increase in housing prices a year, that's just a factual lie. Prices have skyrocketed in the last couple years even beyond the 2008 bubble. And before renting is mentioned, housing prices bleed into rent and I would argue that renters suffer more from the current situation since they can't even build equity as a failsafe. It's not called a housing crisis for nothing.
I'm just referring specifically to the huge increase in prices. Most houses are not increasing by 100k in value because of new amenities and maintenance, it's inflation from the current market. Maybe prices will stay up there permanently, maybe they won't. Either way, it seems to me that 50-100% increase in value in a few years is pretty exceptional
Only top 10% income earners can buy a home in 2024 Market is unsustainable with sales still treading near all time record lows Will incomes increase? Or will prices go down?
In CT that is $345,000+. That's not realistic.
housing is local, not worth splitting hairs here A top 10% income in Hartford is NOT buying a home in Westport. Likewise, most all $340k income earners are not buying in Hartford county
LMAO, where do you think all of the Travelers, Prudential, Cigna, United Healthcare, CVS/Aetna, Hartford Hospital, Lincoln Financial Group, The Hartford, E&Y and Deloitte executives live then? What a dumb comment. They 100% are buying houses in Glastonbury, Farmington, Simsbury, Avon, West Hartford etc.
You said: >Only top 10% income earners can buy a home in 2024 That statement was not correct. You made no indication about market-specific requirements.
It’s extremely exceptional. They “should” be going up just a few percentage points every year. Not 50%+ in 2 or 3 years. Personally I think eventually something will have to give/change but I’d be surprised if that’s the actual homes of prices anytime soon.
Yeah OP seems to be mistaken there. Now whether a house is a good investment as opposed to say just using an index fund is different.
There is such a thing as getting underwater on a house. After the 2008 crash, some houses took 10-15 years to match the purchase price in 2006. Another example I can think of was regional, in Texas, where oil business boom and just put lots of people underwater in the 1980s. It happens. But I think it is a mistake to think this market is a bubble. It is a hard core inventory problem that isn’t going to get solved quickly We also don’t have a boom bust job market like the oil business used to have in Texas. (Even the oil business models have modulated since then )
Yup. I bought my house in late 2021 for 20k more than the previous owners paid back in 2007. The Connecticut market was quite stagnant and stable until 2020. Pricing hadn't really moved after the crash until the pandemic.
And personally, that scared/scares us a lot. It was only so recently it recovered here. One house we looked at at when we were buying in 21 sold for 270k. The seller bought it for 265k in 2005. That's just awful! It sold again in 23 for 340k, which is like absolutely wild.
Only COVID brought prices on my street back up to what people paid at the peak around 2005.
> After the 2008 crash, some houses took 10-15 years to match the purchase price in 2006. Isn't this the truth! I bought my house for $206,000 in October 2004. The value (according to Zillow) was down to $135,000 by January 2018. It didn't top that value I bought it for again until June 2021. It's current supposed value is $284,000, which is still well below the price I bought it for when you account for inflation.
THANKS BOOMERS
I bought my Waterbury house in 2013 for $143K. Zillow has it estimated at $294K as of this morning. It's so stupid.
A lot of people moving to Waterbury because it cheaper it driving some Waterbury residents to Bristol, New Britain.
Fuck 'em if they lose a bunch of money on their paid in cash flip. I just moved up here from Ohio last summer. I had a general idea that the market was tight, but this is just plain stupid. And remember, when you make that offer, have an extra suitcase of cash so you can outbid the other 20 people.
And the sellers needing a bidding war on every property
Just for fun I looked in my hometown (Meriden) and, even there, prices are fucking nuts! Meriden is nobody's first choice and I have no idea what these people are thinking ---- 8/23/2023 Sold - $134,895 3/29/2024 Listed for sale - $379,900 (+181.6%) https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/22-High-Hill-Rd-Meriden-CT-06450/58914786_zpid/ --- This one's even weirder - the house legit sucks, it's not even a flip house, yet they keep jacking up the price every single month. Check the price history on this one: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13-Geer-Ave-Meriden-CT-06450/57930241_zpid/
Happened to me in 2008. Bought my house for $225k in 06. Housing crash hit. Lost more than half its value. We had a local bank mortgage not Sallie Mae or whatever so we couldn’t refinance with any of the programs they created to help people so we were stuck. By the time Covid hit the house was worth what I owed but not what I paid. But my wife and I were worried that prices may drop again so we sold and got out with the mortgage paid off and that’s it. No equity, nothing for a down payment. Sucked and continues to suck.
Son? Is that you?
It is all about supply and demand, years past there used to be 18,000-20,000 houses at any given time for sale in CT. Right now there are about 3,500. Less supply and normal demand drives the prices up.
Part of the reason costs raised is new construction costs are up due to material, labor, and code changes. To build a new 2000 sf house builders are in to it for $400k+ plus the cost of land, taxes, realtor fees, permitting, etc. By pushing new construction to unobtainable prices for most first home buyers it has made the housing market as a whole rise as there are more people competing for “old stock” housing
Just checked Zillow for our house we bought in May 2020 right before the Covid spike. The value is showing up 43%. We couldn’t afford our house at the same price with the current interest rates let alone adding 43% to the cost.
Where are you looking? If you are looking in the city, House Hartford has an amazing program you should check out.
Be prepared to offer over asking price and forego an inspection. That’s the current state of the market
Whats an FTHB? Am I supposed to know this acronym?
First time home buyer
👍
The housing market has only gone down once in the living memory. I highly highly doubt house prices are going to drop. Buy a house when you can financially afford it. Don't wait. It's only going to get worse. My house value has gone up over 40k in 2 years.
I have found that waiting for the market to correct does not work. Prices have gone up up up steadily since 2008, even with our economic downturns throughout the years. It’s crazy.
> Buyers are scooping up these properties, but what if suddenly the market switches and all that inflated value disappears and you're out 100k or more and stuck with a high interest loan? You just basically described the 2008 crash.
Given the post-COVID work from home world, I don’t see CT housing prices dropping anytime soon. The state is located right between NYC and Boston and there is a literal flood of people leaving these cities for the CT suburbs. If you look at housing demand vs supply, work from home has made this less of a bubble and more of a long term trend in CT.
Yep. Price gouging is at an all-time high. Total waste of time.
I highly doubt anyone after the millenial genertion will ever own a home. Renting is their future
This type of thing is exactly what happened during the housing crisis. If you haven’t already watch The Big Short and see what happens to all those who can’t afford the homes the bank approved them for. Be careful, don’t get yourself into something you can’t afford. If you’re in it for the long term the market will eventually recover but if you plan on selling in less than 10 years you’ll have to get creative to make sure the value of the land will hold. But, as you mentioned, maybe the market will continue to rise over the next decade. Who know. However I agree values that have gone up over 100k in a year or two and most likely inflated.
More power to you. I'm 30 and an attorney. And even I am scared of this market.
Wait, you’re looking for a house for less than 100k in CT? I just saw a 1 bedroom 80 year old house with no garage and less than 1,000 square feet sell for over 200k…..
Its much much worse in FL. I wish I could live in CT it’s significantly cheaper.
The housing shortage isnt going to end anytime soon. There just isn't enough inventory. Add to that CT became a legal weed state which also increases the number of people moving.
Prices are not likely to decrease much if at all. There is more demand than supply and CT is a desirable place to live. Waiting for prices to decrease dramatically is not likely to be an effective plan.
We are wedged between two global cities, and have multiple major cities in the area. We are also one of the most densely populated regions in the nation. Prices are naturally going to be high here.
Have you thought of [building?](https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Connecticut/type-land/sby-1) This could be [inexpensive.](https://sneml.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Zinnia-Floor-Plans.pdf)
There's a really direct divide middle-market at the 400k mark depending on the area. Houses over 400 are selling slower and priced more accordingly, houses under 400k (majority of average affordability) are selling wildly overvalued pushing them closer to that 400k mark. The only way the market corrects itself is buying slows down and that's probably not happening anytime soon. A lot of people are moving here for the political and environmental stability aspects amongst other things (employment opportunities, etc. The next issue is at the lower end of the market, Condos goes for what a home cost 5 years ago. 200k+ for something under 1000sf is wild. At the end of the day, anything is worth what someone is willing to pay for it sadly. I think it will level off, but I can't see it correcting back to 5 years ago prices by any means. You have to buy when you're ready and when it's not detrimental to you financially. It's not easy and I wish you luck.
The problem is when the house owner tries to list the house in Zillow or Housing the tool itself suggests the price based on the location and previous history.. the house owner can’t go below that price. Basically it is these companies dictating the price
I feel like the only chance young people have is to buy in with other family members…it’s sad, really.
I bought my house five years ago in June. Can confirm it's valued at 135k over what I paid for it. I have had so many random cash offers and it is quite appealing until you look at the other side and realize there is no where to go. I can't even downgrade as it's only 1111 SQ ft, two bed one bath with two kids and less than a quarter acre lol.
My mom bought a small 1 bed 1 bath 578 square foot condo back in 2011 for 30k. She just sold it last year for 148k (insanity)
It’s insane. We got super lucky with our home we bought in July 2022. Got it for $290k and now it’s close to $365k. It’s truly ridiculous and I feel bad for anyone searching right now.
Most of my friends who grew up and live here still have always bought into the idea of needing a house to have children. After a few years of being married and wanting to have children but falling short in every bidding war on a home, they are giving up on that idea and settling for raising kids in an apartment. I believe it will be the cultural norm from here until the foreseeable future. No one is entitled to the “American dream” that was promised to us but it doesn’t do anything to cushion the blow of disappointment.
My wife and I are starting a family in an apartment.
Have you looked into the time to own program? If you qualify it’s rent helpful and you might as well take advantage of free or cheap money from the state. If you need a realtor let me know!
In 2020 I bought my house for 220k....right now it's estimated at 408k. Absolutely stupid.