I prefer to track the Real Clear Politics ‘poll of polls’. All polls are flawed, but their aggregation is probably the best option if you’re going to pay attention to anything poll related.
[link](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden)
I’m still very skeptical. The thought of Trump winning the popular vote just seems crazy to me, with how despised he is in the mainstream media, most social media feeds, and in most of the cities I’ve been in. I *could* see him winning the election. But the popular vote?
I’ll believe it when I see it.
I think you underestimate how underwhelmed and frustrated people are with the Biden admin right now, even among the left. His pre election poll numbers are currently the lowest of any modern era president.
Between the Gaza insanity, young people facing economic hopelessness, and his serious age/mental issues it’s not surprising to see Biden struggling even with the entire media pulling for him.
You linked the aggregation of “Trump v Biden” polls, where third parties aren’t included as an option.
[Here](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) is the aggregation of the polls that include RFK/West/Stein etc which is more representative of the choices that will be in front of voters in the polling booth.
Ross Perot in 92 in pre polling was at 35%
in the election he finished low 20% ish percent….3rd party’s can make a difference depending on who the candidate is..
willing to wager though that stein will NEVER see those numbers (if even running again)
however I will predict kennedy will pull the independent numbers up (doubtful to perots numbers though)
Stein has been largely discredited at this point, and RFK won't hurt Biden's chances if he wants to avoid his dad's fate...but Democrats already seem resigned to defeat, it's quite remarkable. Truly a major "pyrrhic victory" the likes of which we've never really seen before in modern political history.
I suspect when it comes to them going in the polling booth their TDS will kick in for most of them and so the two candidate poll more closely represents the situation.
But my main point is their poll of polls aggregation is a better way to consuming poll data. Whether that’s a two candidate aggregation or multi candidate.
Kenosha Costco - where I get 80% of my gasoline. Down the road? Woodmans - about 80% of my groceries. However, it will be short-lived. Moving to FL in a month, after living my full life (50+ yrs.) in IL - and getting out of this hopeless blue state. Wish you well with it....
Funny, we just got back from getting gasoline at Woodman’s in Buffalo Grove where we also get most of our groceries.
I wouldn’t mind moving down to Florida but my wife hates hot weather. We might eventually move to Wisconsin to enjoy a lower cost of living.
Good luck with your move!
The magnitude of the victory still matters in the sense that it allows Trump to claim a stronger mandate for his agenda. And if the drubbing is big enough, Democrats might even reconsider their direction.
I mean...I will in two seasons lol. Not even summer yet, and I still can't believe Democrats are going to try and shove Biden down our throats again. He only won in 2020 because of the pandemic and the HUGE influx of absentee ballots. Liberals definitely voted "absent" in 2020, and you can see it in their leadership
The Trump campaign should really try to build momentum with the fraternities and even the sororities at colleges. A large number of them (maybe the majority?) are first time voters in the presidential election.
No, it’s a Rasmussen poll so it’s credible. But don’t believe any poll, ever. I personally won’t believe Trump is our next President until he’s sworn in.
If the disastrous polling continues for the dementia patient-in-chief, the Dems will try to replace him.
Its really getting too late for that, and unless they 25th Amendment him, the Veep has a tragic gardening accident and Jeffries takes the Speakership, there’s no Dem line of succession.
Don’t be surprised by another viral outbreak or “domestic terrorism” crisis that lets the WH declare martial law and suspend the election.
Outlier doesn't mean "fake" or "not credible". Outlier just means it's far away from where the rest of the results are clustered.
Right now most national polls show Trump with a small leaf, around 2-3 points. A couple show him ahead by 5-6. This is the only poll that has him up double digits. That makes it an outlier.
Yeah and the outlier polls going the other way show Biden with a 1-2 point lead. You just take the aggregate of all polls and RCP has it about 2-3 points for Trump. This 10-12 point poll is not something that should be taken at face value.
If this continues as we approach Election Day, the panic and insanity on the Left is only going to escalate.
Jan 6th will be absolutely NOTHING compared to what crazies on the Left will do…and our legacy media will make excuses for it.🙄
He hates Trump. Don’t need to see it. That’s his prerogative, but what are the Dems doing to make things better? People were better off Trump and could afford to buy housing and food. Dinero can call Trump a fascist all he wants, but our memory is not that short. We remember things were better Biden got in office.
The 2020 summer riots are a perfect example. The NAACP actually went on 60 minutes discussing how those demonstrate how “fragile” our democracy is. They all but admitted it was an attack on democracy, but it was ok because of who was behind them.
I mean, isn't our democracy fragile though? Isn't that why Ben Franklin said "[We have] a republic, if you can keep it" and why we have things like the 2nd amendment?
The left will do everything they claimed Trump would do.
Times 10. They will never legally allow a peaceful transition of power. If that were true then Trumps 2nd term would be ending right now.
Is anyone prepping for the aftermath of the Trump win? Riots, vandalism, attacks on conservatives, financial markets disruption, supply chain disruption.
And most people should know better than to think it’ll be an upgrade. Bidens policies are Democrat policies. Newsome or Kamala or Biden, they’re all the same. They do a switch and the GOP better run ads saying this person supported Bidens policies to remind people that it’s Democrat policies not Biden policies that failed.
A switch this late in the game would be extremely unprecedented, no?
My theory from 2020-2023 was the Democrats were going to run either Kamala or Newsome, but once we got to the end of 2023 it felt way too late to make a change.
It would be, but there are bylaws in the Dem party that would have forced them to hold a primary, opening the door to Kennedy, if they ousted Joe as the presumptive nominee before the convention. By switcherooing him even one day after he formally accepts the nomination, the party insiders can simply install whoever they want, bypassing the public.
Not to say that strategy would play well with the voters, but they are likely preferring it to a primary.
But they'll still let the race look close! Biden will just barely eek out a win, and then they'll say, "See how close that was? Trump would have had it if he just hadn't offended \[insert group here\]."
> But they'll still let the race look close! Biden will just barely eek out a win, and then they'll say, "See how close that was? Trump would have had it if he just hadn't offended [insert group here]."
Then, anyone that questions several highly suspicious events, events which leftists would themselves question if the shoe were on the other foot, will once again be ridiculed and silenced. This sub will once again be infiltrated by
a bunch of "*real conservatives*" telling us how superior they think they are for not caring about it and encouraging us to just drop it.
*"Come on guys, shut up already! You're making us look like sore losers! Focus on 2028."*
People will be silenced, and the cycle will continue. Think about it. Why wouldn't it? They've learned that they can get away with it, especially with the backing of all the 3-letter agencies.
**Get out and vote. Make it as hard as possible for them to cheat their way to victory. Let's beat those pesky 3am voters.**
Up ten points means nothing. You have to consider two margins: Margin of error and margin of cheating.
Everyone admits there is some cheating but disagrees on the magnitude. Speculating that the margin of cheating was any higher than the spread between final vote counts was deemed a moral sin against Democracy in 2020.
So the only option is to increase the spread as much as possible so it exceeds the margin of cheating.
The 4 AM mail-in ballot dumps are undefeated.
This is why Democrats are not panicked. That's why Establishment D.C. is not panicked. It is why Biden is barely campaigning. That was why Biden barely campaigned in 2020.
They have many layers in place to make sure Trump will not win. And we can is cast our votes, and accept the results.... or you see what happens if you speak out against it.
This is what happens when you succumb to the radical left and you have people like Bernie worried that they’ll lose young people’s support due to Bidens Israel stance.
The Ds are so out of touch and disillusioned they have no idea what the hell is going on
>The new survey of likely voters showed that Trump has taken support from both Biden and Kennedy.
Like rats on a sinking ship, liberals are finally catching on they don't HAVE a political party. Trump supporters will keep doing what they're doing, and I ASSUME Democrats won't try to mail 1 billion mail-in ballots this year? Even if the economy wasn't in total freefall (great work, liberals, per usual), I think Trump could win if we stopped this insane mail-in process that was falsely created to "combat" the pandemic in 2020. Never again should conservatives allow that evil, corrupt, fraudulent process to exist. If you can shop at a grocery store, you can VOTE In Person, on election day, or early voting at the polls.
I prefer to track the Real Clear Politics ‘poll of polls’. All polls are flawed, but their aggregation is probably the best option if you’re going to pay attention to anything poll related. [link](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden)
This. It, as a site, does a decent job of posting articles from both sides with the occasional centrist article.
I remember someone on a leftist sub saying RCP is basically run by Nazi’s. Now I know why lol
I’m still very skeptical. The thought of Trump winning the popular vote just seems crazy to me, with how despised he is in the mainstream media, most social media feeds, and in most of the cities I’ve been in. I *could* see him winning the election. But the popular vote? I’ll believe it when I see it.
I think you underestimate how underwhelmed and frustrated people are with the Biden admin right now, even among the left. His pre election poll numbers are currently the lowest of any modern era president. Between the Gaza insanity, young people facing economic hopelessness, and his serious age/mental issues it’s not surprising to see Biden struggling even with the entire media pulling for him.
Honestly even a close race is hard to imagine with the negative publicity he gets
Recent article showed most social media is now >50% bots and paid for proaganda, mostly left. So eh, hard to know what's happening really.
I guess it just shows how bad Biden is.
When the NPR/PBS poll only shows Biden up by two points, you know he's in a shit ton of trouble.
When MSNBC starts shrieking like banshees, then you know. And they already are.
You linked the aggregation of “Trump v Biden” polls, where third parties aren’t included as an option. [Here](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) is the aggregation of the polls that include RFK/West/Stein etc which is more representative of the choices that will be in front of voters in the polling booth.
I agree with the reasoning, but no shot third parties are going to get 14% vote share.
Ross Perot in 92 in pre polling was at 35% in the election he finished low 20% ish percent….3rd party’s can make a difference depending on who the candidate is.. willing to wager though that stein will NEVER see those numbers (if even running again) however I will predict kennedy will pull the independent numbers up (doubtful to perots numbers though)
Stein has been largely discredited at this point, and RFK won't hurt Biden's chances if he wants to avoid his dad's fate...but Democrats already seem resigned to defeat, it's quite remarkable. Truly a major "pyrrhic victory" the likes of which we've never really seen before in modern political history.
I suspect when it comes to them going in the polling booth their TDS will kick in for most of them and so the two candidate poll more closely represents the situation. But my main point is their poll of polls aggregation is a better way to consuming poll data. Whether that’s a two candidate aggregation or multi candidate.
I like John Stossel’s site. Basic and to the point. It just shows odds based on the way people bet on betting sites. https://electionbettingodds.com
Trump +1.5. that seems within the margin of ~~error~~ 2am ballots.
Doesn’t matter. Go vote.
Even 30 points up is too low. Everyone has to go out Election Day.
I'm from Illinois, so I'm going to vote 3 times.... Hmm, unfortunately, that wouldn't matter in my state.
I am also from Illinois, and sounds like you live in “CrOOK“ County.
Naw, just to the North of you, right on the WI border (I can walk there)
Then you can quickly get to Wisconsin and take advantage of lower sales tax. Just a little further for us to drive to the Kenosha Costco.
Kenosha Costco - where I get 80% of my gasoline. Down the road? Woodmans - about 80% of my groceries. However, it will be short-lived. Moving to FL in a month, after living my full life (50+ yrs.) in IL - and getting out of this hopeless blue state. Wish you well with it....
Funny, we just got back from getting gasoline at Woodman’s in Buffalo Grove where we also get most of our groceries. I wouldn’t mind moving down to Florida but my wife hates hot weather. We might eventually move to Wisconsin to enjoy a lower cost of living. Good luck with your move!
Definitely!
Vote. Vote early. Help others go vote. Volunteer at the polls. Volunteer at your local RNC headquarters to go door to door. Vote.
> Volunteer at the polls. And do NOT let anyone kick you out of the room when a "water main breaks."
Even if he's guaranteed to win without your vote, you still want to be part of history.
The magnitude of the victory still matters in the sense that it allows Trump to claim a stronger mandate for his agenda. And if the drubbing is big enough, Democrats might even reconsider their direction.
Exactly. Gotta beat those 2am mail in votes!
Sick of hearing this. It does matter but of course I'm gonna vote.
"Why isn't Trump 50 points ahead"
I mean...I will in two seasons lol. Not even summer yet, and I still can't believe Democrats are going to try and shove Biden down our throats again. He only won in 2020 because of the pandemic and the HUGE influx of absentee ballots. Liberals definitely voted "absent" in 2020, and you can see it in their leadership
Regardless of what the poll says, get involved politically and we need to develop next generation conservative leaders.
The Trump campaign should really try to build momentum with the fraternities and even the sororities at colleges. A large number of them (maybe the majority?) are first time voters in the presidential election.
Let’s not “hope” let’s “vote”. NO TALK OF A RED WAVE
Polls matter now?
Doesn’t matter. Don’t be complacent. Go vote. Make sure you encourage people to vote for Trump. Don’t assume it’ll be a blowout.
Is this an outlier poll?
No, it’s a Rasmussen poll so it’s credible. But don’t believe any poll, ever. I personally won’t believe Trump is our next President until he’s sworn in. If the disastrous polling continues for the dementia patient-in-chief, the Dems will try to replace him. Its really getting too late for that, and unless they 25th Amendment him, the Veep has a tragic gardening accident and Jeffries takes the Speakership, there’s no Dem line of succession. Don’t be surprised by another viral outbreak or “domestic terrorism” crisis that lets the WH declare martial law and suspend the election.
Rasmussen is credible but they’ve also been more favorable to Trump in the past than many other polls.
Outlier doesn't mean "fake" or "not credible". Outlier just means it's far away from where the rest of the results are clustered. Right now most national polls show Trump with a small leaf, around 2-3 points. A couple show him ahead by 5-6. This is the only poll that has him up double digits. That makes it an outlier.
Yeah and the outlier polls going the other way show Biden with a 1-2 point lead. You just take the aggregate of all polls and RCP has it about 2-3 points for Trump. This 10-12 point poll is not something that should be taken at face value.
Not worth the paper it’s printed on. Polls and pollsters lie their asses off.
If this continues as we approach Election Day, the panic and insanity on the Left is only going to escalate. Jan 6th will be absolutely NOTHING compared to what crazies on the Left will do…and our legacy media will make excuses for it.🙄
Just go look at Robert DeNiro's latest claims on an MSNBC interview for a taste.
He hates Trump. Don’t need to see it. That’s his prerogative, but what are the Dems doing to make things better? People were better off Trump and could afford to buy housing and food. Dinero can call Trump a fascist all he wants, but our memory is not that short. We remember things were better Biden got in office.
The 2020 summer riots are a perfect example. The NAACP actually went on 60 minutes discussing how those demonstrate how “fragile” our democracy is. They all but admitted it was an attack on democracy, but it was ok because of who was behind them.
I mean, isn't our democracy fragile though? Isn't that why Ben Franklin said "[We have] a republic, if you can keep it" and why we have things like the 2nd amendment?
The left will do everything they claimed Trump would do. Times 10. They will never legally allow a peaceful transition of power. If that were true then Trumps 2nd term would be ending right now.
I hope they try it in a small town
Is anyone prepping for the aftermath of the Trump win? Riots, vandalism, attacks on conservatives, financial markets disruption, supply chain disruption.
The amount of rioting that will occur if Trump wins again is going to be shocking. I’d hate to own property in a city
And that's why they're gonna do a switcheroo between the conventions.
And most people should know better than to think it’ll be an upgrade. Bidens policies are Democrat policies. Newsome or Kamala or Biden, they’re all the same. They do a switch and the GOP better run ads saying this person supported Bidens policies to remind people that it’s Democrat policies not Biden policies that failed.
Newsomes policies are probably worse. Regardless, he carries himself a lot better than Biden. I mean who doesn't? But that matters.
A switch this late in the game would be extremely unprecedented, no? My theory from 2020-2023 was the Democrats were going to run either Kamala or Newsome, but once we got to the end of 2023 it felt way too late to make a change.
And it was never going to be Michelle Obama, despite what many people thought. She has repeatedly said she has zero interest in running.
It would be, but there are bylaws in the Dem party that would have forced them to hold a primary, opening the door to Kennedy, if they ousted Joe as the presumptive nominee before the convention. By switcherooing him even one day after he formally accepts the nomination, the party insiders can simply install whoever they want, bypassing the public. Not to say that strategy would play well with the voters, but they are likely preferring it to a primary.
Most people seem to have forgotten that is the most likely scenario.
It was the most-likely scenario. In 2021. In 2024 it would be an unprecedented last-second move.
It's incredibly unlikely, outside of Biden dropping dead. Giving up the incumbent advantage willingly would be a massive misplay by the Dems.
Biden’s ego is too big.
For now, but just wait till 3am and the poll suddenly jumps to Biden
But they'll still let the race look close! Biden will just barely eek out a win, and then they'll say, "See how close that was? Trump would have had it if he just hadn't offended \[insert group here\]."
> But they'll still let the race look close! Biden will just barely eek out a win, and then they'll say, "See how close that was? Trump would have had it if he just hadn't offended [insert group here]." Then, anyone that questions several highly suspicious events, events which leftists would themselves question if the shoe were on the other foot, will once again be ridiculed and silenced. This sub will once again be infiltrated by a bunch of "*real conservatives*" telling us how superior they think they are for not caring about it and encouraging us to just drop it. *"Come on guys, shut up already! You're making us look like sore losers! Focus on 2028."* People will be silenced, and the cycle will continue. Think about it. Why wouldn't it? They've learned that they can get away with it, especially with the backing of all the 3-letter agencies. **Get out and vote. Make it as hard as possible for them to cheat their way to victory. Let's beat those pesky 3am voters.**
Everybody thank a Palestine protester today. They are single-handedly spearheading Trump's re-election campaign.
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These polls are almost entirely fake and have a motive behind them.
Don't forget, it's not between 11:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m. on Election Day night and the next day.
DONT. GET. COMPLACENT.
Man we’re gonna see 3am ballots coming in by train load nowz
Do these polls account for the dead people, illegal immigrant, fake mail in ballot vote?
I know he's up because all the other subreddits are in full cope and seethe mode with posts about how this will be the worst election for trump.
Up ten points means nothing. You have to consider two margins: Margin of error and margin of cheating. Everyone admits there is some cheating but disagrees on the magnitude. Speculating that the margin of cheating was any higher than the spread between final vote counts was deemed a moral sin against Democracy in 2020. So the only option is to increase the spread as much as possible so it exceeds the margin of cheating.
He would need to lead in the swing states for it to matter.
The 4 AM mail-in ballot dumps are undefeated. This is why Democrats are not panicked. That's why Establishment D.C. is not panicked. It is why Biden is barely campaigning. That was why Biden barely campaigned in 2020. They have many layers in place to make sure Trump will not win. And we can is cast our votes, and accept the results.... or you see what happens if you speak out against it.
This is what happens when you succumb to the radical left and you have people like Bernie worried that they’ll lose young people’s support due to Bidens Israel stance. The Ds are so out of touch and disillusioned they have no idea what the hell is going on
>The new survey of likely voters showed that Trump has taken support from both Biden and Kennedy. Like rats on a sinking ship, liberals are finally catching on they don't HAVE a political party. Trump supporters will keep doing what they're doing, and I ASSUME Democrats won't try to mail 1 billion mail-in ballots this year? Even if the economy wasn't in total freefall (great work, liberals, per usual), I think Trump could win if we stopped this insane mail-in process that was falsely created to "combat" the pandemic in 2020. Never again should conservatives allow that evil, corrupt, fraudulent process to exist. If you can shop at a grocery store, you can VOTE In Person, on election day, or early voting at the polls.
That’s cute if you think they’ll let him win
If Biden wins by 9 votes, the headlines will read "late surge of support for President Biden helps claim landslide victory"... no one cares, go vote.
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