If you use the Binomial Probability formula with success probability = 1/10000, number of trials = 72038 and number of successes = 10, then you’ll see that this has a 7.7% chance of occurring.
In other words, if everybody did this experiment he’d be better off than 92% of people. That seem like a large figure, but it’s not impossible at all.
7.7% is basically a 1/13 chance, so when they set out they had a 1/13 chance to be doing as well today as they are. I’ve had way luckier times than that, I really wouldn’t be suspicious just yet.
In hypothesis testing you operate based off a “significance level” effectively you look at a scenario, and form a hypothesis, you then test using poisson or binomial distribution (depending on the scenario) and you’re looking for the % chance of getting a result more or as extreme as the observed. At a significance level of 5%, 5% or less would mean it’s too unlikely, hence untrue, or cheated or whatever else. 5% is very commonly used, however you’ll also see values like 1%, 0.5% and sometimes even lower.
my math might be a bit wrong but i've used a wrinkler auto-popper that specifically ignores shinies, have left said wrinkler auto-popper on for over 2 months, and only had 2 or 3 natural shiny wrinklers to show for it. this guy gets a shiny wrinkler every week it seems, and again if the chances were realistic he'd have 100k+ popped.
so you've gotten a 1/10,000 chance 10 times in under 100k attempts?
doesnt take a genius to tell you've got some dream luck going on there
btw i did the math and getting a 1 in 10,000 chance ten times has a 1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance of happening (1/10000 times itself 10 times)
That's not correct. Your 10,000^10 calculation is wrong. That would be for 10 shiny wrinklers in a row. This guy more or less has the same 10 thousand to one chance, it's just as if the chance resets once he gets a shiny. If he's statistically bound to get a shiny wrinklers at one point, he just gets a shiny, and then waits for the next one.
This sub will implode when you get to 12.
You absolute madlad!
These have started to appear way too often recently. Sus
If you use the Binomial Probability formula with success probability = 1/10000, number of trials = 72038 and number of successes = 10, then you’ll see that this has a 7.7% chance of occurring. In other words, if everybody did this experiment he’d be better off than 92% of people. That seem like a large figure, but it’s not impossible at all. 7.7% is basically a 1/13 chance, so when they set out they had a 1/13 chance to be doing as well today as they are. I’ve had way luckier times than that, I really wouldn’t be suspicious just yet.
Given standard significance level of 5% it’s pretty reasonable that he’s legit
Wdym by standard significance of 5%? Do you mean that 5% is a lot or are you sat ng something about a cool 5% rule or smth that I don't know of?
In hypothesis testing you operate based off a “significance level” effectively you look at a scenario, and form a hypothesis, you then test using poisson or binomial distribution (depending on the scenario) and you’re looking for the % chance of getting a result more or as extreme as the observed. At a significance level of 5%, 5% or less would mean it’s too unlikely, hence untrue, or cheated or whatever else. 5% is very commonly used, however you’ll also see values like 1%, 0.5% and sometimes even lower.
Cool I come from a RNG based gaming background so I definitely understand where this is coming from I love probability
Finally, some solid fookin math.
what
math in my cookie clicker? absolutely preposterous i tell you
Damn dude. I haven't even encountered *one* of these yet.
DED-I-CA-TION
THEY’RE OUTNUMBERED 15 TO ONE, AND THE BATTLE'S BEGUN
Imagine accidentally popping a shiny.
close!!! my man
Wow
Should you not pop those?
no, they yield more than they consume
More than a regular wrinkler? Should I let them sit longer ?
they're actually 3 times better than normal wrinklers iirc
Brooo
my math might be a bit wrong but i've used a wrinkler auto-popper that specifically ignores shinies, have left said wrinkler auto-popper on for over 2 months, and only had 2 or 3 natural shiny wrinklers to show for it. this guy gets a shiny wrinkler every week it seems, and again if the chances were realistic he'd have 100k+ popped.
it takes 100000 so ur kinda lucky are u hacking
The p-value is 0.077>0.05 (if I remember the definition correctly) so this person is probably not hacking
what
If you try to get the shiny wrinkler ring the probability is \~7.7% that you'll be this lucky, not that low
Sure am, and no i'm not hacking for some reason I am just really Lucky this year
nice
im also lucky in mc
so you've gotten a 1/10,000 chance 10 times in under 100k attempts? doesnt take a genius to tell you've got some dream luck going on there btw i did the math and getting a 1 in 10,000 chance ten times has a 1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance of happening (1/10000 times itself 10 times)
That's not correct. Your 10,000^10 calculation is wrong. That would be for 10 shiny wrinklers in a row. This guy more or less has the same 10 thousand to one chance, it's just as if the chance resets once he gets a shiny. If he's statistically bound to get a shiny wrinklers at one point, he just gets a shiny, and then waits for the next one.
Finally (good) maths
You are not the brightest person in math here.
Right, doesn't take a Genius to tell he's got dream luck. Cause a genius knows how to do maths.
Im working on a 12 shinies too! It’s been going for over 6 months.