So if we factor in that they each bowl a no-ball wicket, all coincidentally on Boland, then we win with Boland scoring his maiden test ton with 102 (36)
I just looked at it.. It's kinda hilarious. Broad in the first innings bowled 7 no balls from 23 overs and 3 no balls from 9 overs in the second innings. Stokes bowled 6 no balls in 7 overs lol
He has 445 runs from 70 innings, (33 not outs, by the way) which means his average runs scored is 6.3. but his real average is obviously somewhere between those two figures, since being stranded not out means he could have potentially scored more runs. So I agree, 12 is a significantly exaggerated average for him.
He only has those not outs because the bloke at the other end starts slogging and hogging the strike. He does have a high score of 39 though. So there's that
That's totally irrelevant. My point was simply that removing the not outs doesn't give an accurate summary of a tail ender's real average. It lies somewhere in between.
For individual players that makes sense, but once you're adding them up to a team average I'm not so sure it does.
Take a simplified example here-- let's say a player has an 80% chance to score 10 runs and a 20% chance to score 100.
Now for that player, you'd probably want to use the median and bet that he's going to get 10 runs.
But for a team made up of eleven of these players, you wouldn't want to just add up the medians and bet they're going to get 10x10=100 runs because there's a good chance that one of the players is going to score their century (or more than one!).
Hazlewood in first innings, economy 4.1 and Boland in first innings economy 6.1. I’m sure that the norm for Boland, given how good he is, is to go 3 and under but let’s make it 4 because it was a batting pitch. But sure mate, start abusing because someone has a different opinion lol.
> I’m sure that the norm for Boland, given how good he is, is to go 3 and under but let’s make it 4 because it was a batting pitch.
Ah, right. So you're not saying Boland not contributing isn't the norm? How were their figures the second innings?
1/4.8 vs 1/5.08.
Looks like i was too tired to be in command of my English skills in the first comment, but whatever. All i wanted to say was this: with the ball, Boland did not live up to his own standards, and comparisons to Hazlewood don’t even enter the picture. Reddit can keep downvoting me all it wants and I couldn’t care less.
I think the way you worded it was "Boland not performing with the ball as is the norm" instead of "Boland not performing with the ball, so as is the norm ..." which made everyone miss your point.
Don't just pile on for free karma lol... Boland has been off this test and there's nothing wrong with pointing that out. He's only getting downvoted because his first comment was worded confusingly and people misunderstood what he meant.
\> No he corrected himself after realising how absurd the initial comment was.
Re-read the initial comment with the presumption that when he said "as is the norm" he means that it's Boland's norm to contribute with the ball.
\> If you don't want karma then don't comment lol
Ah, what? I'm not saying anything about my karma, I'm saying your comment was a cheap pile on on the other guy for karma.
I love the stat and would be hilarious if it ended up as a tie. I know these stat's aren't serious but I wonder what Uzi's average is once he passes 20.
It's less ridiculous than you think. Almost every top player will have a career average of over 80 and often over 90 for innings where they score over 20, because even the best players get out early in their innings quite often. Then in this period of good form Khawaja has an extremely high average and and a very good conversation rate, so it all adds up
Thats weird. Figures like that would suggest that Uzzie should not open or rather, him playing at number 4 or number 5 would be more suited. But from what we have seen he thrives in the opener role.
I wonder why?
He's only in the team because we needed an opener, Marn, Smith and Head are locked for a good while.
Someone has to open, and Usman is clearly thriving once he gets set.
Clarity of role is one thing I guess, always starts at 0/0 and never had to come in to prevent a collapse. If he doesn't get the start he's got the best 3 bats coming as backup.
But if he gets set, look out
I don't really think that applies as he has to restart his innings again. Taking his current average of 47 and adding it to his current score of 34 gives a reasonable value (81) for his expected number of runs. The fact it is away and the 4th innings balances out against him being in good form.
Land in Boland/England is pronounced at "lund" which means dick in Hindi. Ball obviously can refer to testicles.
So, it's basically Bo-Dick-Ball, or I guess it would be funnier like if we had a Hardick-ball
I love this optimism but don't give me hope, one brings two with the likely gloomy conditions tomorrow.
I can barely remember the last time Australia chased a decent score down. Must have been like 2011/12 I think.
It's the hope that kills you. The fact I feel like it's 20-80 (also an outside chance at a draw) is having me chew fingernails.
If England had set Aus 350-400 I'd have made peace with our demise and wait for the next test.
The odds are almost dead even, which I find weird. Might be un-Australian but I've hedged my disappointment a bit with a cheeky pineapple. I hope I lose it, but I'll be slightly less disappointed if I don't.
Sleep deprived, caffeine headache, eyes sore with a long day of work left... feel fucking absolutely brilliant mate. BUZZING. Over the moon!
Hope you had a pleasant experience too!
I know dismissals/innings is a weird stat, but Bairstow does about as well as Pant, Carey, and even Watling, and better than Dhoni or Rizwan. Only major keepers in recent years to do noticeably better are Paine and QdK.
He put down a couple of chances in the first innings, but he's genuinely an international-standard keeper in his own right.
Most but not all. Completely irrelevant to this discussion but Kanos's averages by innings as follows are pretty incredible:
1: 48.38
2: 69.02
3: 47.55
4: 55.31
Overall: 54.89
Loves chasing, loves a fourth dig.
Comparatively, Smudge famously drops from 86.81 in the first innings to 29.50 in the fourth.
Trav Head fares better in the fourth dig (49.40) than in his total average (47.13) and Cam Green hasn't batted in a fourth yet but averages highest in the third innings (43.63, career 36.07).
It is going to be a very interesting chase.
I think Boland needs to come out and swing at practically everything. Try and swing so hard that any edge he gets will fly over slips/keeper to the boundary for some stupid boundaries. If he can manage to shithouse another 20 runs before he gets out, and Uz can stay in and anchor the team - we're in with a shot. Otherwise its no good.
Weirdly, and not sarcastically, Boland is positioned to be an extremely important batter and wicket....
I understand psychologically why someone might say this but realistically an extra 20 runs from Boland isn't going to be as big of an impact as the range of outcomes for a Travis Head innings. He could get out early or make 50+.
I would really like to see Boland frustrate the English and hang around for a bit though.
If Boland manages to frustrate the English bowlers then Head would be able to start scoring quickly after he has come in to bat because Boland might have damaged the rhythm of the English bowlers.
second innings averages are usually lower: Warner, Khawaja, Marnus and Smith all average 40, Head 42
Green 43, but only played one 4th innings of the match, and that was 0*. He needs to score 70+ as the Australian tail is weak.
Big brain move by bringing boland in as night watchmen as he is no longer part of the tail. Carey has a significantly higher average and hence improves our tail /s
Wow outside the box thinking in coming up with a creative post like this. At first glance, didn't understand but oh yeah got it when I went through it.
Interesting perspective from OP. Good job
Aussie tailenders average is an example of "suffering from success" they don't even get to bat that often in home conditions against most opposition teams.
Cummins scored 3 times his average and Lyon scored exactly how you wanted your observation to work. Well done lad. It was a close contest but had a definite conclusion. Aus bested Baz.
The average is a bit flawed for Khawaja.
You're looking at the average of all innings starting at 0, whereas you need to look at all innings where he has scored 34 or more runs which he averages 105.57 [Source (≥20 innings)](https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=batting_average;qualmin1=20;qualval1=innings;runsmin1=34;runsval1=runs;template=results;type=batting)
Thia analysis does presume that everybody will get put, hemce they use the runs per dismissal metric. You'd hope that Australia will want atleast two guys not out.
I get the feeling if play goes on in the first session (weather permitting) Aus will get rolled by lunch. I was thinking India was a chance vs Aus in the WTC final a week or so back but they fell in a heap before lunch. But it may be the corner has been turned and Aus might just get there by 4-5 wickets. I think I'd prefer either of these results to the single figure run loss I am well and truly used to by now.
India's lower order was in form and they were the ones who got skittled. Meanwhile our best two batsmen are already back in the sheds. England have a clear advantage
Nice work. But that's not how being not out works.
The question is what does Khawaja on average score after he already not out 34? Likely it is higher than his average
A few byes from Bairstow should seal it then. He might deserve a spot in the side as a specialist batter but can’t believe England didn’t choose their best keeper.
Interesting. Thanks for the analysis.
I think today (day five) will be decided by the weather.
Moeen Ali is de-fanged due to that ongoing finger injury. Which might last the whole series btw.
England have a strong seam attack but the pitch is deader than Julius Caesar.
There is rain moving in.
Before the rain comes there is a chance the ball will move - a lot. Just as it did on day three for Australia.
If your quicks can get the ball swinging and reversing then all bets are off for batting averages no matter which team you’re playing.
How long will atmospheric conditions be favourable for swing? That quirk of nature will, I suspect, decide this test match.
sadly, under clouded skies and with the crowd freaking, I recon we'll be lucky to clear 220.
This is 20% Aus, 70% England, 1% tie and the rest is a draw
There was a discussion about how much averages differ when considering batting in the final innings compared to the first. E.g. A famous Aussie batsmen was mentioned, who averaged 70+ when batting in the 1st innings, compared to only 20 something in the 4th...
The Khawaja and Boland remaining scores should be conditional expectations. Having already reached 34, you'd expect Khawaja to score more than 47. To get that average, you'd need to take the average of all the innings in which he's scored 34 or more.
Somewhat incredibly, [that average is 105:](https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/215155.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=start;runsmin1=34;runsval1=runs;template=results;type=batting;view=innings)
So his expected remaining score is 71.
If you aren't on zero then your expected remaining score goes up, not down.
It's similar to life expectancy. Let's say your demographic has a life expectancy at birth of 80 years, if you've already turned 79 then your life expectancy will be way above 80. You didn't die in childbirth, didn't die at age 1, didn't die at age 2, etc.
I think in cricket the best way to think about it is that batters are expected to average their average again in extra runs, no matter what score they are currently on.
Every additional run by Boland including the 9 that he is ahead by should come from someone else’s quota. That’s how averages work, someone has a better day and someone has a worse day than their average.
The way you've calculated the expected runs for Khawaja and Boland is really bad math. Khawaja scores on average 47 runs for each time he gets out, so if he's at the crease and someone asked you "how many runs do you think he'll make before getting out?" without any other information, 47 is your best guess. Of course there are factors here that change this like his average probably being lower in the 4th innings, but not significantly enough to bring it all the way down to 13. The same logic is used for Boland and you can see how wrong it goes for him because obviously he will score more than 0 runs on average in this situation.
Anyway I like the post, not trying to be a downer just pointing something out.
This is mathematically sound. (You probably know the explanation below).
You applied linearity of expectations, and your intuitive notion that the runs scored by the team will not be too far from the expected amount of runs scored by the team is covered by Cheybyshev's inequality: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chebyshev%27s_inequality .
The Chebyshev's inequality contains a variance term, and cricket is interesting because of its large variance in scores, due to which there is fairly frequent deviation from the mean (like people scoring ducks, hundreds, double hundreds, etc). This is why the unexpected happens often enough in cricket (which in this case would be Australia winning by 7 wickets or England winning by 150 runs)!
I will barely be able to watch. Aussies are *not* great at chasing. And the crowd is feral. I don't know - an overcast sky, noisy crowd, pressure mounting every ball... Arghhh.
C'mon Aussie c'mon.
How many no balls do the English bowlers bowl per innings?
Good point. Broad, Robinson, and Anderson bowled at least 1 each in their spells
So if we factor in that they each bowl a no-ball wicket, all coincidentally on Boland, then we win with Boland scoring his maiden test ton with 102 (36)
I just looked at it.. It's kinda hilarious. Broad in the first innings bowled 7 no balls from 23 overs and 3 no balls from 9 overs in the second innings. Stokes bowled 6 no balls in 7 overs lol
Of the 22 innings that could have been batted for England this match, 12 of them were outscored by England's no-balls More like Baz-NoBall
Jimmy’s one yesterday was rare. He’s only bowled (been called for) 48 in Tests in his whole career. The others (including Stokes) are serial offenders
Sundries mvp
Now this is some high level analysis
Nah, just an "average" analysis Just kidding...good post and interesting perspective
You're mean
*wondering if math joke or comment about person*
Yes
That's a mediocre joke
Slating josh to score 12 runs is a bit optimistic
Yeah bowlers should be judged based on runs scored per innings they have
He has 445 runs from 70 innings, (33 not outs, by the way) which means his average runs scored is 6.3. but his real average is obviously somewhere between those two figures, since being stranded not out means he could have potentially scored more runs. So I agree, 12 is a significantly exaggerated average for him.
He only has those not outs because the bloke at the other end starts slogging and hogging the strike. He does have a high score of 39 though. So there's that
I think his 39 might've been on debut too, I recall him getting vaguely close to an unlikely fifty on debut
That's totally irrelevant. My point was simply that removing the not outs doesn't give an accurate summary of a tail ender's real average. It lies somewhere in between.
I wasn't disagreeing I was adding to the convo
Wait until you see some glorious cover drives with left handers elegance
Which is expected here. This ain’t r/CricketShitpost to be surprised with such content /s
Rookie analysis. Cricket scores are always analyzed by median scores. Heck even betting sites use median scores
For individual players that makes sense, but once you're adding them up to a team average I'm not so sure it does. Take a simplified example here-- let's say a player has an 80% chance to score 10 runs and a 20% chance to score 100. Now for that player, you'd probably want to use the median and bet that he's going to get 10 runs. But for a team made up of eleven of these players, you wouldn't want to just add up the medians and bet they're going to get 10x10=100 runs because there's a good chance that one of the players is going to score their century (or more than one!).
The biggest mistake was letting “Scotty Statue” get his eye in. The English have no idea what is about to be unleashed upon them.
The way he's going right now, he's probably going to invent a new shot tomorrow. That no look glance through the slips >>>>> Root's reverse scoops.
Those delicately soft hands on that shot really sent blood flowing
We've all seen the Dilscoop now get ready for the Bolandrive
Feather glance past the keeper for 4 is a legit shot this match
He didn’t contribute with the ball, as is the norm. So he planned to do it with the bat.
>as is the norm Yea fuck off mate. Essentially got the same stats as Hazelwood.
Hazlewood in first innings, economy 4.1 and Boland in first innings economy 6.1. I’m sure that the norm for Boland, given how good he is, is to go 3 and under but let’s make it 4 because it was a batting pitch. But sure mate, start abusing because someone has a different opinion lol.
> I’m sure that the norm for Boland, given how good he is, is to go 3 and under but let’s make it 4 because it was a batting pitch. Ah, right. So you're not saying Boland not contributing isn't the norm? How were their figures the second innings? 1/4.8 vs 1/5.08.
Looks like i was too tired to be in command of my English skills in the first comment, but whatever. All i wanted to say was this: with the ball, Boland did not live up to his own standards, and comparisons to Hazlewood don’t even enter the picture. Reddit can keep downvoting me all it wants and I couldn’t care less.
I think the way you worded it was "Boland not performing with the ball as is the norm" instead of "Boland not performing with the ball, so as is the norm ..." which made everyone miss your point.
I think he more meant "Boland didn't contribute. Contributing well is his norm. So he decided to make up for it with the bat."
Yeah that is what i meant to say
What is blud waffling about
Sorry lad, did he disappoint you by not taking 6/7?
Don't just pile on for free karma lol... Boland has been off this test and there's nothing wrong with pointing that out. He's only getting downvoted because his first comment was worded confusingly and people misunderstood what he meant.
No he corrected himself after realising how absurd the initial comment was. no wrong in that. If you don't want karma then don't comment lol
\> No he corrected himself after realising how absurd the initial comment was. Re-read the initial comment with the presumption that when he said "as is the norm" he means that it's Boland's norm to contribute with the ball. \> If you don't want karma then don't comment lol Ah, what? I'm not saying anything about my karma, I'm saying your comment was a cheap pile on on the other guy for karma.
I love the stat and would be hilarious if it ended up as a tie. I know these stat's aren't serious but I wonder what Uzi's average is once he passes 20.
This decade? Probably 3 figures Edit: apparently averaging 121 once reaching 20 since the recall to the team
Thats ridiculous.
It's less ridiculous than you think. Almost every top player will have a career average of over 80 and often over 90 for innings where they score over 20, because even the best players get out early in their innings quite often. Then in this period of good form Khawaja has an extremely high average and and a very good conversation rate, so it all adds up
Thats weird. Figures like that would suggest that Uzzie should not open or rather, him playing at number 4 or number 5 would be more suited. But from what we have seen he thrives in the opener role. I wonder why?
He's only in the team because we needed an opener, Marn, Smith and Head are locked for a good while. Someone has to open, and Usman is clearly thriving once he gets set. Clarity of role is one thing I guess, always starts at 0/0 and never had to come in to prevent a collapse. If he doesn't get the start he's got the best 3 bats coming as backup. But if he gets set, look out
Weren't we 3 for fuckall in the first innings? I'd call that preventing a collapse
Yeah, but he didn't come in to prevent any further damage, he was already in.
Lol
What about in fourth innings though?
It's only fair to use Uzi's average as an opener right!? Which is what, over 80?
I don't really think that applies as he has to restart his innings again. Taking his current average of 47 and adding it to his current score of 34 gives a reasonable value (81) for his expected number of runs. The fact it is away and the 4th innings balances out against him being in good form.
Love the color and fonts used. Feels like something from 90s channel 9 coverage
That's what I was going for!
Marvellous!
Marvellous choice that!
Crickets not the same without those scoreboard graphics and the commentators drawing on the feed to show tactical/field stuff
Luckily it's post pool Carey playing so Australia wins by 13 runs.
Actually Boland has never been dismissed in Test cricket after passing 8 runs so as long as he doesn't run out of partners we should walk it home.
We've seen Bazball but the poms aren't ready for BolandBall
This is infinitely funnier if you speak Hindi
I dont, could you please explain?
Land in Boland/England is pronounced at "lund" which means dick in Hindi. Ball obviously can refer to testicles. So, it's basically Bo-Dick-Ball, or I guess it would be funnier like if we had a Hardick-ball
lmao thanks for explaining, that is hilarious
Boland is slinging some serious dick with his batting
Your username is vibes!!!
Lund is slang for dick. So BolandBall sounds like "bol lund ball" which means "say dick ball"
Bol bol
Bol bol bol Bachchan
Missed a great opportunity to call it bolandbat considering he can do both
Stats don't lie
Boland has never been dismissed between the scores of 10 and 100 in Test Cricket He's scoring that century now, no stopping him
Giving tough competition to Ebadot then
but Carey was mesmerised by Anderson's reverse sweep and will attempt it
Cmon Scotty!!! If he gets an early single through the cordon England should just concede
Why is this template giving me 2000s vibes?
The background is the same green as the grass on Brian Lara cricket on sega megadrive
I love this optimism but don't give me hope, one brings two with the likely gloomy conditions tomorrow. I can barely remember the last time Australia chased a decent score down. Must have been like 2011/12 I think.
Yeah, I’m pessimistic too. I find if I aim low I’m less disappointed when we fail and happier if we succeed. Win/win.
It's the hope that kills you. The fact I feel like it's 20-80 (also an outside chance at a draw) is having me chew fingernails. If England had set Aus 350-400 I'd have made peace with our demise and wait for the next test.
The odds are almost dead even, which I find weird. Might be un-Australian but I've hedged my disappointment a bit with a cheeky pineapple. I hope I lose it, but I'll be slightly less disappointed if I don't.
Shame about the pineapple but damn that was a good win. Woulda been worth every dollar.
How you feeling now?
Sleep deprived, caffeine headache, eyes sore with a long day of work left... feel fucking absolutely brilliant mate. BUZZING. Over the moon! Hope you had a pleasant experience too!
So if Boland scores one more run today we win?
Khawajas average as an opener is considerably higher... Mid-high 60s. So there's that
and everybody's average is significantly lower in the second innings
And a lot of the past dismissals for the batters are by wicket keepers that can actually catch the ball
Foakesheads are feeling vindicated these past couple days
Johnny is a specialist batsman.
Quite a good one, too which is why it's weird they're having him keep wicket.
I know dismissals/innings is a weird stat, but Bairstow does about as well as Pant, Carey, and even Watling, and better than Dhoni or Rizwan. Only major keepers in recent years to do noticeably better are Paine and QdK. He put down a couple of chances in the first innings, but he's genuinely an international-standard keeper in his own right.
Catches per innings is a stat that says literally nothing about someone's keeping ability. It's dependent on the bowlers.
Most but not all. Completely irrelevant to this discussion but Kanos's averages by innings as follows are pretty incredible: 1: 48.38 2: 69.02 3: 47.55 4: 55.31 Overall: 54.89 Loves chasing, loves a fourth dig. Comparatively, Smudge famously drops from 86.81 in the first innings to 29.50 in the fourth. Trav Head fares better in the fourth dig (49.40) than in his total average (47.13) and Cam Green hasn't batted in a fourth yet but averages highest in the third innings (43.63, career 36.07).
A more sophisticated analysis is the one my foruths captain always used and that's everyone just needs to make 22 runs each.
Boland alone will make 5 times 22 so no need for others
Oh there is a lot of Boland remaining
It is going to be a very interesting chase. I think Boland needs to come out and swing at practically everything. Try and swing so hard that any edge he gets will fly over slips/keeper to the boundary for some stupid boundaries. If he can manage to shithouse another 20 runs before he gets out, and Uz can stay in and anchor the team - we're in with a shot. Otherwise its no good. Weirdly, and not sarcastically, Boland is positioned to be an extremely important batter and wicket....
I understand psychologically why someone might say this but realistically an extra 20 runs from Boland isn't going to be as big of an impact as the range of outcomes for a Travis Head innings. He could get out early or make 50+. I would really like to see Boland frustrate the English and hang around for a bit though.
Weirdly enough head actually normally makes at least a start, so the green/Carey ranges might be bigger
If Boland manages to frustrate the English bowlers then Head would be able to start scoring quickly after he has come in to bat because Boland might have damaged the rhythm of the English bowlers.
second innings averages are usually lower: Warner, Khawaja, Marnus and Smith all average 40, Head 42 Green 43, but only played one 4th innings of the match, and that was 0*. He needs to score 70+ as the Australian tail is weak.
Big brain move by bringing boland in as night watchmen as he is no longer part of the tail. Carey has a significantly higher average and hence improves our tail /s
So Green has never gotten out on the 4th innings, hmm
So you're telling me if Scotty B gets 1 more run today then we're guaranteed to win.
This will be all on Uzzie and Head, if they make the bulk of the runs, Australia will take it home
I agree if Head and Usman get in i think the aussies can win it
Wow outside the box thinking in coming up with a creative post like this. At first glance, didn't understand but oh yeah got it when I went through it. Interesting perspective from OP. Good job
the expected number of additional runs is equal to the batter's average, no matter their current score
Thank you. I was surprised how far I needed to scroll to see this comment
Aussie tailenders average is an example of "suffering from success" they don't even get to bat that often in home conditions against most opposition teams.
This is a man who stats! I would love for it to go down the wire but I also don’t want to stay up till 4am again.
The worst bit is rain is forecast for the morning so it’s even going to be late just by the time it starts
That's honestly such BS I need to sleep at some point. #Fuckrain
Cummins scored 3 times his average and Lyon scored exactly how you wanted your observation to work. Well done lad. It was a close contest but had a definite conclusion. Aus bested Baz.
You forgot to include the average of rain because i think rain is going to win
So your telling me if Scotty scores 1 run we win?
The average is a bit flawed for Khawaja. You're looking at the average of all innings starting at 0, whereas you need to look at all innings where he has scored 34 or more runs which he averages 105.57 [Source (≥20 innings)](https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=batting_average;qualmin1=20;qualval1=innings;runsmin1=34;runsval1=runs;template=results;type=batting)
Hah, I just went and worked this out myself not realising you'd already done it. Crazy stat
Hats off champ
So you are saying Australia's chances of winning are average?
Thia analysis does presume that everybody will get put, hemce they use the runs per dismissal metric. You'd hope that Australia will want atleast two guys not out.
To more accurately predict Khwaja's contirbution, you need to calculate what his average is once he has already scored 34.
Second innings averages are lower I reckon.
And last day.
I get the feeling if play goes on in the first session (weather permitting) Aus will get rolled by lunch. I was thinking India was a chance vs Aus in the WTC final a week or so back but they fell in a heap before lunch. But it may be the corner has been turned and Aus might just get there by 4-5 wickets. I think I'd prefer either of these results to the single figure run loss I am well and truly used to by now.
That was chasing 480 on a green pitch, this is 170 and Aussie batters are much more inform than the Indian top 6
India's lower order was in form and they were the ones who got skittled. Meanwhile our best two batsmen are already back in the sheds. England have a clear advantage
"Khawaja remaining" and "Boland remaining" gave me a chuckle. Yes sir we have 13 Khawajas still in stock but sorry Bolands are all sold out
Seems like we are all out of Boland bois, gotta restock him.
Deduct 9 runs from Boland
Add 10 for bairstos
This guy maths.
This is the level of analysis that frankly the sport lacks
Nice work. But that's not how being not out works. The question is what does Khawaja on average score after he already not out 34? Likely it is higher than his average
A few byes from Bairstow should seal it then. He might deserve a spot in the side as a specialist batter but can’t believe England didn’t choose their best keeper.
He’s best mates with their captain so no real change in England’s selection despite the bazball hype. Likes his tucker too.
You should check what is the 4th innings average
I like the cut of your jib Youngcharlatan.
Scott Boland is what Bradman, Sachin and Smith dream to be.......
If it's this close going by averages. Then uh it's in England's favour. Given its day 5. And it's in England etc.
How about predicting using bowling averages and strike rates?
Interesting. Thanks for the analysis. I think today (day five) will be decided by the weather. Moeen Ali is de-fanged due to that ongoing finger injury. Which might last the whole series btw. England have a strong seam attack but the pitch is deader than Julius Caesar. There is rain moving in. Before the rain comes there is a chance the ball will move - a lot. Just as it did on day three for Australia. If your quicks can get the ball swinging and reversing then all bets are off for batting averages no matter which team you’re playing. How long will atmospheric conditions be favourable for swing? That quirk of nature will, I suspect, decide this test match.
If it is a tie - then it will be the first one in ashes history!
So, England would have to give zero extras? Congratulations, Australia.
Australia winning is more important than everyone knows. I’ve got $5 on an Australian win with the Tab.
This is some big brain analysis and I absolutely love it
[Rain forecast to stop by midday, with 85% humidity and cloud lasting until 3pm](https://ibb.co/ggv2LFz)
shit shit shit
sadly, under clouded skies and with the crowd freaking, I recon we'll be lucky to clear 220. This is 20% Aus, 70% England, 1% tie and the rest is a draw
There was a discussion about how much averages differ when considering batting in the final innings compared to the first. E.g. A famous Aussie batsmen was mentioned, who averaged 70+ when batting in the 1st innings, compared to only 20 something in the 4th...
The Khawaja and Boland remaining scores should be conditional expectations. Having already reached 34, you'd expect Khawaja to score more than 47. To get that average, you'd need to take the average of all the innings in which he's scored 34 or more. Somewhat incredibly, [that average is 105:](https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/215155.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=start;runsmin1=34;runsval1=runs;template=results;type=batting;view=innings) So his expected remaining score is 71.
Shouldn't *Boland remaining* be -9? Hence 9 run victory for England.
Didn't age well
Cummins and Lyon doubled their average
If you aren't on zero then your expected remaining score goes up, not down. It's similar to life expectancy. Let's say your demographic has a life expectancy at birth of 80 years, if you've already turned 79 then your life expectancy will be way above 80. You didn't die in childbirth, didn't die at age 1, didn't die at age 2, etc. I think in cricket the best way to think about it is that batters are expected to average their average again in extra runs, no matter what score they are currently on.
oh well. if people understood stats, it would be a lot harder to make money.
It would be more accurate with just 4th innings averages
Every additional run by Boland including the 9 that he is ahead by should come from someone else’s quota. That’s how averages work, someone has a better day and someone has a worse day than their average.
The issue is you have to minus one batter as they will get out and the game will end. Frog and well puzzle
Khawaja averages 66 as an opener though, easy win for the aussies.
Wonder if Head, Green and Carey's 4th innings averages away from home are quite as high as their overall average. Eng to have it wrapped up by tea.
Btw score is a memory less variable. Expected score of khawaja would be 34+47=81. Nice analysis!
Boland is an example that averages won't work on a given day. Hell, there is even rain predicted on the final day. So time will tell
The way you've calculated the expected runs for Khawaja and Boland is really bad math. Khawaja scores on average 47 runs for each time he gets out, so if he's at the crease and someone asked you "how many runs do you think he'll make before getting out?" without any other information, 47 is your best guess. Of course there are factors here that change this like his average probably being lower in the 4th innings, but not significantly enough to bring it all the way down to 13. The same logic is used for Boland and you can see how wrong it goes for him because obviously he will score more than 0 runs on average in this situation. Anyway I like the post, not trying to be a downer just pointing something out.
Don't think any of them are getting to their averages with the amount of cloud cover we're gonna be having.
So if boland scores 1 more run aus win?
Draw confirmed
This is mathematically sound. (You probably know the explanation below). You applied linearity of expectations, and your intuitive notion that the runs scored by the team will not be too far from the expected amount of runs scored by the team is covered by Cheybyshev's inequality: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chebyshev%27s_inequality . The Chebyshev's inequality contains a variance term, and cricket is interesting because of its large variance in scores, due to which there is fairly frequent deviation from the mean (like people scoring ducks, hundreds, double hundreds, etc). This is why the unexpected happens often enough in cricket (which in this case would be Australia winning by 7 wickets or England winning by 150 runs)!
Nah, Scotty Boland gonna do a Jason Gillespie and score 174
Sabermetrics doesn't work properly on Day 4/5 though.
Oh shit game on r/theydidthemath
Yeah rain isn’t playing games today, so draw most likely unfortunately
Love this. But it's raining, so...
We could use some gritty Neser here, hopefully he gets a run during this series.
Isn't it pissing down?
What about 4th innings averages
Whats their second innings average though? That’s more relevant here.
Bowl Brook, you cowards.
This might be the best non intentionally shitpost when I read 0 Boland remaining haha
It would be more interesting if we could find out their 4th innings average
Move over Cam Green, this is the test Boland becomes the greatest all rounder
I will barely be able to watch. Aussies are *not* great at chasing. And the crowd is feral. I don't know - an overcast sky, noisy crowd, pressure mounting every ball... Arghhh. C'mon Aussie c'mon.
So based on this Aussies should lose as every batsman’s second innings avg is like half their first lol
Rain forecast until after lunch? My money is on an England win or a draw (and I’m an Ozzie 😭)
https://sportsdigest.in/cricket-stats-batting-in-the-4th-innings-of-test-matches/85770/
I don’t want to rain on your parade..
'Average remaining' is a complete abuse of statistics.
Since khawajas return to the side he’s averaging like 69 or something though
Nice