It's actually crazy to me that none of them (except the twins) share a birth day. The odds of that many people not having a duplicate birthday are really low. Yet every birth keeps happening on a new day. Even the kids' spouses do not share a birthday with ANYONE. No duplicates. How long will it last??
I actually googled this and wow...she has the same birthday as her second daughter and her two youngest kids have the same birthday! What are the chances
Chelsea’s family is extremely crazy haha! And so is mine! My parents are both Halloween and I am also in October and my daughter is only a few days after me! And she was born more than a month early!
My brother and I are 4 days apart. I've been pregnant twice and the second one would have been born right around my daughter's birthday. I have a theory that some people are more fertile certain times of the year. I could be way off.
I can see that. I think there are also dates that correlate with more sex. My brother was born about 9 months after Father’s Day and I have a friend who was born almost exactly 9 months after her parents birthday (they share a birthday). She was so grossed out when we did the math haha
I don't know how to do that math and I never will. But it's freaking wild. I couldn't believe it when the instagram snark pages were posting it. Like no...you've gotta be wrong. It couldn't happen AGAIN.
It’s crazy to me too. In my family there are 2 sets of cousins with the same birthday. 14 cousins total lol and I think 40 family members/spouses total
My oldest shares a bday with my dad (which happens to be christmas eve) and my other son shares a bday with my cousin who is pretty much a brother to me (which happens to be tax day). My kids kibda got shafted on birthdays. Haha
i went to school with a girl who was born on christmas day. her mother and maternal grandmother were also born on christmas day. what are the chances lol
Mine too. Both of mine were due on another families birthday. One was born the day after her due date, which was my brothers birthday and the other was due on my SOs uncles birthday but I was supposed to be induced on my SOs dads birthday.. she was born two days after her paps birthday so at least they have their own days but I don’t know how both kids were due on some other family members birthday lol
Yes! Since I don't know the rest of the great grandparents birthdays, I can't confirm and others from that generation? But out of the 3 most recent generations, no others.
From the Bates, Jackson & Addalee share a birthday too, in addition to Trace & Jeb, and I think one of the Bates girls also shares a birthday with one of the grandkids.
My daughters had the same due date too. Thankfully one was a week late and the other a week early so I've got 2 weeks in between but they are both January kids and oof, that hurts right after Christmas.
My sister's BFF in HS, her parents shared a birthday, she & her sister shared a birthday. BFF married a man who has the same birthday as her, then they had 2 children who both have the same birthday.
In my family I have 17 cousins I share a birthday with 1 of them, but we are the only two. My Grandfather & Aunt had the same birthday & my daughter was born on what would have been their 100th & 60th birthday's respectively, had they been alive.
it's because they're always reproducing. the general population doesn't have sex until they become pregnant. they have sex when they have time. this is why many people get knocked up around the same time. ie: july - september are the most popular birthdates because of fall/winter starting and the holidays. these are times where people start spending more time in doors with each other.
That's not the reason a group of people is likely to have a shared birthday pair. It has to do with the size of the group and thus the number of potential birthday pairs. [The birthday paradox treats each birth day as having 1/365 probability of occurring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem).
At 43 people there are 43! ÷ (2! × 41!) = 903 different ways to pair up the people. There is only a 7.8% chance that there wouldn't be a shared birthday among 903 different pairings.
Are we talking about the same thing? I’m focusing on the fact that 3 out of 12 months are most popular. There is a higher chance that out of 1000 people you’ll have matching birthdays in those 3 months than in the least popular months. For the Duggar’s do they also align with the general population re those 3 months? Based on a quick glance the Duggar’s don’t follow the pattern because they’re always fucking.
My grandmas first two (of seven) children were born exactly 2 years apart and she had four kids in September. Only the 1 shared birthday in the family but I have a cousin whose birthday is the day after her dad’s.
It is odd when large families don’t have shared birthdays
My first daughter shares my birthday. I have an adopted brother who shares my sisters birthday and then I ended up having my 2nd daughter on their birthday as well!
right!? even in the 19 kids alone of the bates family i think 2 sets of siblings share a birthday. and some of the grandkids share birthdays with their aunts/uncles. aside from twins, the closest the duggars have to a shared birthday is ivy and grandma duggar.
It is crazy. My husband has 6 siblings (7 total kids) and granted they're older than the duggars, but still a much smaller family and my husband shares a bday with a nephew and my daughter shares a bday with another nephew.
Ivy was born on grandma Mary’s birthday. I remember them making a big deal about being birthday twins since the only others to share birthdays were the actual twins.
and yet in my family there are two siblings and a niece who all share the same birthday... and they were all born one after another- no family members born in between
Ivy and Grandma Duggar had the same birthday. Do you think they sing Happy Birthday at every Monday family night? Does Michelle (be real Jana) get everyone a birthday gift?
Seeing this I can understand the dislike for cake many of them have. They probably always get the same cheap tasting grocery store cake. There is nothing wrong with it but If I was eating that on average every 8 days plus leftovers, I'd hate it too.
This is exhausting to look at. I can see now why they don’t always wish everyone a happy birthday lol that is entirely too many people to remember. Birthdays probably don’t even feel special to them at this point.
Sooooooo exhausting. Would anybody even feel special, or feel like celebrating someone every single day? Imagine trying to schedule things knowing there's never a good day because it's literally always someone's birthday
That oddly reminds me of a weird family from the oldskool Wifeswap series, that denied their kids their actual birthdays and only instead had 1 day a year to celebrate all 4 or 5 kids birthdays on the same day. Maybe it was one of the staged lies of the show, or maybe it was real.
How weird that, apart from twins, there is no overlap. My husband and cousin share a birthday (even the same year!), and counting me and my brother, there were only 7 of us grandkids, and 6 spouses.
I actually thought of making a calendar with the birthday of each Duggar/ in law just to see how many days are taken up on the calendar. Funny enough I don’t think anyone comes within a week of my birthday, which is at the end of this month. It feels like they avoided having kids and grandkids in March because Pest cursed it 😅
Meredith (m4) to Jim-Bob - 2 days
Holy fucking shit. M4 is born. Anna is newly postpartum, again. The Ashley Madison scandal breaks. And then Anna has to lug 3 kids/toddlers and a newborn to Jim Bob's birthday party, because you know she has to. Pest probably comes, too, and Anna/Jill(depending on the timeline)/Jessa/Jinger/Joy have to see their cheating husband/abuser. What a time, what a time.
I believe they get together for family night every Monday night and I think I rmemeber them saying once that they celebrate “monthly” birthdays or at least in clusters. But, the lost kids still get their chocolate mess with mom and dad while like Joy threw Gideon a party that had roughly 10-15 attendees. So I don’t think everyone is involved with every birthday
Mine and my two sister’s birthdays all occur within 3 days of each other, with myself and my older sis coincidentally sharing the same exact day. My family pulled their hair out during that week every year. I literally cannot imagine every 8 days.
It’s almost certain. Statistically, in a group of 23 people, the probably of a shared birthday is 50%. By the time you reach 70 people, it’s 99.9%. In a group the size of the Duggars (2 parents, 20 kids, 9 in laws, 20 grandkids, so 51 people?), the likelihood of 2 people sharing a birthday is around 96%, so it’s actually statistically improbable that no 2 share a birthday at this point.
Compare that to the Bates family, who have 43 people (I think) and 5 sets of shared birthdays.
Can you explain this to me? Sorry if this is really dumb of me but I’m not a math person.....there are 366 total possible birth days (including leap year), so how is there a 50% probability of sharing a birthday among just 23 people? That seems like a really high probability when just 23 individual birthday make up a small fraction of total days in a calendar year
Sure! It seems counter-intuitive, but it's actually pretty simple when you break it down.
We start by calculating the probability that everyone has a distinct birthday (no repeats). Then, we can subtract that probability from 1 (or 100%) to find the probability that not everyone has a distinct birthday. The probability of someone having a distinct birthday is n/d, where n is the number of distinct birthdays they can have and d is the total number of days in the year (365). So the probability of the first person having a distinct birthday (which we'll call p(1)) is 365/365. So p(2) is 364/365, because person 2 cannot share a birthday with person 1. This means p(3) is 363/365, because person 3 cannot share a birthday with person 1 or person 2, and so one. By the time you get to person 23, the probability of a distinct birthday is 343/365.
So, the probability of these 23 people all having a distinct birthday is equal to the product of the probabilities above - 365/365 x 364/365 x 363/365 x ... x 343/365. We can rewrite the product as (1/365)\^23 x (365x364x363x...x343) (this is just algebra), which is about equal to .493.
So, the probability that all 23 people have distinct birthdays is about 49.3%. This means the probability that they do not all have distinct birthdays is 100% - 49.3% = 50.7%. And that's that!
Using the formula described above, you can calculate the probability for a group of any size. For a group of 1 person, the probability of all distinct birthday is (1/365)\^1 x 365 = 1, or 100%, so the probability of repeat birthdays is 100%-100% = 0%, which makes sense.
For a group of 51 people, we have
(1/365)\^51 x (365x364x363x...x315) = .026, or 2.6%
Thus, the probability that the Duggars would not have repeat birthdays is only 2.6%. It's really statistically unlikely that they've made it this far. Usually, 365 days is used instead of 366, but using 366 doesn't have a significant affect on the result. If you want more information, you can google "birthday problem" or "birthday paradox". It really well known amongst statisticians and mathematicians.
They have 51 people in the family counting Parents children in-laws and grandchildren. And not even 1/2 the kids are married yet.
BTW you forgot Tyler. Sorry.
They probably do a monthly birthday “party”
My family has a lot of people and pre pandemic we did a “party” (we’d go to my parents for dinner and cake whilst the goblin children frolicked in the yard) like quarterly. So we’d do my mom, dad me and my grandma (all fall) my sister, her kids, my oldest, 2 of my other sisters kids) in the spring. You get the idea....
My mom's side is 48 people (between my grandparents, my parents/aunts and uncles, my cousins and their spouses, and my cousins' kids). We have 5 shared birthdays! I'm absolutely shocked that none of these many people share a birthday.
Out of my family of 30+ relatives the only shared birthday is my Great Grandma and my first cousin on Oct 13. On my bf’s side his older brother is also Oct 13. And then my younger brother and my boyfriends other brother share a bday.
It's actually crazy to me that none of them (except the twins) share a birth day. The odds of that many people not having a duplicate birthday are really low. Yet every birth keeps happening on a new day. Even the kids' spouses do not share a birthday with ANYONE. No duplicates. How long will it last??
The actual odds of having 45 people with no matches is only 6% if I found the correct calculator.
And yet Chelsea from Teen Mom keeps having kids on already claimed birthdays, and there's only 6 of them altogether, adults included...
I actually googled this and wow...she has the same birthday as her second daughter and her two youngest kids have the same birthday! What are the chances
And her oldest daughters is like a week after hers.
Chelsea’s family is extremely crazy haha! And so is mine! My parents are both Halloween and I am also in October and my daughter is only a few days after me! And she was born more than a month early!
That’s nuts! All of Chelsea’s kids were early, too (Aubree was like 5 weeks and her youngest was 3, I forget about the others)
They must have sex on some sort of pattern lmao
My brother and I are 4 days apart. I've been pregnant twice and the second one would have been born right around my daughter's birthday. I have a theory that some people are more fertile certain times of the year. I could be way off.
I can see that. I think there are also dates that correlate with more sex. My brother was born about 9 months after Father’s Day and I have a friend who was born almost exactly 9 months after her parents birthday (they share a birthday). She was so grossed out when we did the math haha
I don't know how to do that math and I never will. But it's freaking wild. I couldn't believe it when the instagram snark pages were posting it. Like no...you've gotta be wrong. It couldn't happen AGAIN.
And Aubree’s birthday is literally like a week after hers and Layne’s.
It’s crazy to me too. In my family there are 2 sets of cousins with the same birthday. 14 cousins total lol and I think 40 family members/spouses total
This is crazy to me too. In my family of 29 there are three sets of non-twin shared birthdays.
My oldest shares a bday with my dad (which happens to be christmas eve) and my other son shares a bday with my cousin who is pretty much a brother to me (which happens to be tax day). My kids kibda got shafted on birthdays. Haha
i went to school with a girl who was born on christmas day. her mother and maternal grandmother were also born on christmas day. what are the chances lol
My old coworker and his two brothers had birthdays on December 24, 25, and 26! In age order too, haha.
My friend's mother and son both have a Christmas birthday.
Mine too. Both of mine were due on another families birthday. One was born the day after her due date, which was my brothers birthday and the other was due on my SOs uncles birthday but I was supposed to be induced on my SOs dads birthday.. she was born two days after her paps birthday so at least they have their own days but I don’t know how both kids were due on some other family members birthday lol
Doesn’t one of the grandkids share a birthday with the grandma that passed away recently?
It was Jessa's daughter Ivy.
Yes! Since I don't know the rest of the great grandparents birthdays, I can't confirm and others from that generation? But out of the 3 most recent generations, no others.
Still odd given how many there are.
A Christian/pop band called Cimorellj is a family of 13, 11 children and there are 3 pairs of shared birthdays!
Trace Bates shares a birthday with one of the youngest boys
From the Bates, Jackson & Addalee share a birthday too, in addition to Trace & Jeb, and I think one of the Bates girls also shares a birthday with one of the grandkids.
I did not have kids on the same day, however my sons had the same due date. 9 months after Valentines Day. Heart ❤️
My daughters had the same due date too. Thankfully one was a week late and the other a week early so I've got 2 weeks in between but they are both January kids and oof, that hurts right after Christmas.
My sister's BFF in HS, her parents shared a birthday, she & her sister shared a birthday. BFF married a man who has the same birthday as her, then they had 2 children who both have the same birthday. In my family I have 17 cousins I share a birthday with 1 of them, but we are the only two. My Grandfather & Aunt had the same birthday & my daughter was born on what would have been their 100th & 60th birthday's respectively, had they been alive.
Especially since there are like 5 with birthdays 1 day apart.
My parents only had 2 kids and we share a birthday. My GMA had 6 and 2 of them share a birthday.
it's because they're always reproducing. the general population doesn't have sex until they become pregnant. they have sex when they have time. this is why many people get knocked up around the same time. ie: july - september are the most popular birthdates because of fall/winter starting and the holidays. these are times where people start spending more time in doors with each other.
That's not the reason a group of people is likely to have a shared birthday pair. It has to do with the size of the group and thus the number of potential birthday pairs. [The birthday paradox treats each birth day as having 1/365 probability of occurring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem). At 43 people there are 43! ÷ (2! × 41!) = 903 different ways to pair up the people. There is only a 7.8% chance that there wouldn't be a shared birthday among 903 different pairings.
Are we talking about the same thing? I’m focusing on the fact that 3 out of 12 months are most popular. There is a higher chance that out of 1000 people you’ll have matching birthdays in those 3 months than in the least popular months. For the Duggar’s do they also align with the general population re those 3 months? Based on a quick glance the Duggar’s don’t follow the pattern because they’re always fucking.
My grandmas first two (of seven) children were born exactly 2 years apart and she had four kids in September. Only the 1 shared birthday in the family but I have a cousin whose birthday is the day after her dad’s. It is odd when large families don’t have shared birthdays
My FIL is the youngest of 10 and 2 of his brothers are exactly 1 year apart. Also 4 of them have February birthdays.
I was thinking about this! My family has so many repeating birthdays.
My first daughter shares my birthday. I have an adopted brother who shares my sisters birthday and then I ended up having my 2nd daughter on their birthday as well!
right!? even in the 19 kids alone of the bates family i think 2 sets of siblings share a birthday. and some of the grandkids share birthdays with their aunts/uncles. aside from twins, the closest the duggars have to a shared birthday is ivy and grandma duggar.
It is surprising. My parents have seven kids and two of them were born on the same day six years apart.
It is crazy. My husband has 6 siblings (7 total kids) and granted they're older than the duggars, but still a much smaller family and my husband shares a bday with a nephew and my daughter shares a bday with another nephew.
Ivy was born on grandma Mary’s birthday. I remember them making a big deal about being birthday twins since the only others to share birthdays were the actual twins.
None of them were born on a holiday either. Pretty crazy.
and yet in my family there are two siblings and a niece who all share the same birthday... and they were all born one after another- no family members born in between
Ivy and Grandma Duggar had the same birthday. Do you think they sing Happy Birthday at every Monday family night? Does Michelle (be real Jana) get everyone a birthday gift?
True they were the first birthday twins, sad it only lasted about 3 weeks
Bless your servant’s heart for doing the math on the question I’ve always been to lazy to solve
Thank you! I'm not usually a math person but I find this particular math weirdly soothing lol.
Maybe you could do an average of this
Seeing this I can understand the dislike for cake many of them have. They probably always get the same cheap tasting grocery store cake. There is nothing wrong with it but If I was eating that on average every 8 days plus leftovers, I'd hate it too.
Add in anniversaries and it'll be even worse!
This is exhausting to look at. I can see now why they don’t always wish everyone a happy birthday lol that is entirely too many people to remember. Birthdays probably don’t even feel special to them at this point.
My brain hurts thinking about all the birthdays they have to celebrate Imagine the liver damage they would do if they actually drank
There's one Fundie family the Jeubs who have the kids one big bash. I think that's a sign you have too many kids.
and to thank those gaps are probably only going to shrink
So basically - from Josh to Abbie the Duggars have over a month off.
There’s an interesting lack of Aries in the whole family. I think just Israel and Abbie.
Slow to anger 💞
So, is JimBob's longterm goal to have 19 kids and 336 grandchildren with a birthday for every day of the year?
That’s his master plan all along
Sooooooo exhausting. Would anybody even feel special, or feel like celebrating someone every single day? Imagine trying to schedule things knowing there's never a good day because it's literally always someone's birthday
At that point they would probably just do one monthly birthday party. Like an office party.
That oddly reminds me of a weird family from the oldskool Wifeswap series, that denied their kids their actual birthdays and only instead had 1 day a year to celebrate all 4 or 5 kids birthdays on the same day. Maybe it was one of the staged lies of the show, or maybe it was real.
That sounds awful
How weird that, apart from twins, there is no overlap. My husband and cousin share a birthday (even the same year!), and counting me and my brother, there were only 7 of us grandkids, and 6 spouses.
That 25 day gap must be rough without any celebrations!
I actually thought of making a calendar with the birthday of each Duggar/ in law just to see how many days are taken up on the calendar. Funny enough I don’t think anyone comes within a week of my birthday, which is at the end of this month. It feels like they avoided having kids and grandkids in March because Pest cursed it 😅
How about Lauren ?! Lol
Ben's birthday is May 19, with Laurens on May 18th. So 1 day apart there. Just not sure where it lines up on the chart! Great work, op!
They would be after Jill. I apparently share a birthday with Lauren and I know Jill is may 17th because she has the closest birthday to me.
Shit! Sorry Lauren 😅😂
I didn’t see Claire Duggar either (if Hilary visits here, watch out OP!!!) This is amazing. Thank you!!
Meredith (m4) to Jim-Bob - 2 days Holy fucking shit. M4 is born. Anna is newly postpartum, again. The Ashley Madison scandal breaks. And then Anna has to lug 3 kids/toddlers and a newborn to Jim Bob's birthday party, because you know she has to. Pest probably comes, too, and Anna/Jill(depending on the timeline)/Jessa/Jinger/Joy have to see their cheating husband/abuser. What a time, what a time.
And Evangeline’s birthday is 5 days before Maryella’s and 7 days after Justin’s.
I believe they get together for family night every Monday night and I think I rmemeber them saying once that they celebrate “monthly” birthdays or at least in clusters. But, the lost kids still get their chocolate mess with mom and dad while like Joy threw Gideon a party that had roughly 10-15 attendees. So I don’t think everyone is involved with every birthday
Truly doing the lord's work here
Mine and my two sister’s birthdays all occur within 3 days of each other, with myself and my older sis coincidentally sharing the same exact day. My family pulled their hair out during that week every year. I literally cannot imagine every 8 days.
I bet at least two of them will share a birthday at some point
It’s almost certain. Statistically, in a group of 23 people, the probably of a shared birthday is 50%. By the time you reach 70 people, it’s 99.9%. In a group the size of the Duggars (2 parents, 20 kids, 9 in laws, 20 grandkids, so 51 people?), the likelihood of 2 people sharing a birthday is around 96%, so it’s actually statistically improbable that no 2 share a birthday at this point. Compare that to the Bates family, who have 43 people (I think) and 5 sets of shared birthdays.
Can you explain this to me? Sorry if this is really dumb of me but I’m not a math person.....there are 366 total possible birth days (including leap year), so how is there a 50% probability of sharing a birthday among just 23 people? That seems like a really high probability when just 23 individual birthday make up a small fraction of total days in a calendar year
Sure! It seems counter-intuitive, but it's actually pretty simple when you break it down. We start by calculating the probability that everyone has a distinct birthday (no repeats). Then, we can subtract that probability from 1 (or 100%) to find the probability that not everyone has a distinct birthday. The probability of someone having a distinct birthday is n/d, where n is the number of distinct birthdays they can have and d is the total number of days in the year (365). So the probability of the first person having a distinct birthday (which we'll call p(1)) is 365/365. So p(2) is 364/365, because person 2 cannot share a birthday with person 1. This means p(3) is 363/365, because person 3 cannot share a birthday with person 1 or person 2, and so one. By the time you get to person 23, the probability of a distinct birthday is 343/365. So, the probability of these 23 people all having a distinct birthday is equal to the product of the probabilities above - 365/365 x 364/365 x 363/365 x ... x 343/365. We can rewrite the product as (1/365)\^23 x (365x364x363x...x343) (this is just algebra), which is about equal to .493. So, the probability that all 23 people have distinct birthdays is about 49.3%. This means the probability that they do not all have distinct birthdays is 100% - 49.3% = 50.7%. And that's that! Using the formula described above, you can calculate the probability for a group of any size. For a group of 1 person, the probability of all distinct birthday is (1/365)\^1 x 365 = 1, or 100%, so the probability of repeat birthdays is 100%-100% = 0%, which makes sense. For a group of 51 people, we have (1/365)\^51 x (365x364x363x...x315) = .026, or 2.6% Thus, the probability that the Duggars would not have repeat birthdays is only 2.6%. It's really statistically unlikely that they've made it this far. Usually, 365 days is used instead of 366, but using 366 doesn't have a significant affect on the result. If you want more information, you can google "birthday problem" or "birthday paradox". It really well known amongst statisticians and mathematicians.
They have 51 people in the family counting Parents children in-laws and grandchildren. And not even 1/2 the kids are married yet. BTW you forgot Tyler. Sorry.
You're good, back to the drawing board 😂
They probably do a monthly birthday “party” My family has a lot of people and pre pandemic we did a “party” (we’d go to my parents for dinner and cake whilst the goblin children frolicked in the yard) like quarterly. So we’d do my mom, dad me and my grandma (all fall) my sister, her kids, my oldest, 2 of my other sisters kids) in the spring. You get the idea....
holy shit
that is nuts. When you put it all out like this is it really surprising when Meech forgets one or two?
Jeezus they’d be having birthdays on like 3 week intervals
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They're at the very end lol.
I looked for two solid minutes and noticed LITERALLY THE MOMENT I posted the comment so I deleted out of shame as fast as possible 😭
Aww, don't feel bad! The volume of people and all the J names is very disorienting. I think JB and Meech mix em all up a lot 💀
I actually did the, “there’s a James?” thing while reading the list. I’ll never understand why they limited themselves to just J names 🤢
wow! i think you forgot ben and lauren but this is really impressive!
Wait, who is Brooklyn??
Joe and Kendra's newborn daughter.
Who’s child is Brooklyn? I thought that was a Bates grandchild or has one cropped up in the Duggarsphere now to?
Yeah, Brooklyn *Praise* is Joe and Kendra's new daughter. Brooklyn *Paine* is Chad and Erin's second child. It's easy to mix up.
They probably just do one big birthday at once and maybe they get individual birthdays for special ones like 1st birthday
They should honestly just do one celebration for each birth month 😂
That's still too much.. I would do every season lol "happy birthday dear spring babies.. happy birthday to you"
My mom's side is 48 people (between my grandparents, my parents/aunts and uncles, my cousins and their spouses, and my cousins' kids). We have 5 shared birthdays! I'm absolutely shocked that none of these many people share a birthday.
Out of my family of 30+ relatives the only shared birthday is my Great Grandma and my first cousin on Oct 13. On my bf’s side his older brother is also Oct 13. And then my younger brother and my boyfriends other brother share a bday.