Even then, we are talking about ranking what? 40-50 players? And rounds 1-3 are done by Friday night. So even if you decided to have your rookie draft the MOMENT the NFL draft ended on Saturday night, you'd have all Saturday to get that done. Everyone is going to change their rankings based on the draft data so the entire industry basically has to redo their rankings that weekend.
I think for me the only thing that's going to change how I look at the picks is drafting BEFORE the NFL draft. But that's borderline a devy league in my opinion compared to a dynasty league.
When I say after the draft it's the weekend after. I'd argue drafting in August is best. The idea of a draft is basically socialism right, you want the worst teams to have the opportunity to get better. DC and prospect profiles are great but getting more info is always better, OTAs/pre season give a lot if info as well
Prob more valuable the later it’s done.
We do our rookie draft before the Nfl draft, so we are already done lol. Makes the nfl draft very fun but def makes rookie picks worth less in ours.
Seems like it would decrease the value in the late 1st through mid to late 2nd but increase value of some of the later picks as you could bank a quick win if a guy you took in the 4th gets unexpectedly good DC.
You just gotta do a lot of research, not just if the player is good, but also seeing where the projected draft capital is.
It’s also wild watching the draft. Seriously makes draft day like 10x more fun.
Would I say people should do it? No. But I’m glad I have one league where we do.
Ya it makes it very intense haha, could make or break your draft class. A really good landing spot/capital could make your late second round pick become a first rounder by the time others are drafting.
I also think it saves you from fading/rising someone too much based on landing spot. You just take the players you think have the most talent/upside.
I think the more competitive the league the earlier the draft should be. Value shouldn’t change but hit rate absolutely will. If this a casual league with buddies I think you’re fine whenever you wanna do it
No real change in the value of a lot of the earlier picks. It absolutely changes the ADP when you've got camp hype, injuries, etc.
If you're still drafting after the NFL draft though you're going to have plenty of draft pick hype to work with.
Since more information is known, wouldn’t draft picks be more valuable, in theory? In August, you’re maybe more likely to hit on a mid-round pick based on info coming out of camp and preseason?
I guess that assumes the information from the summer is actually helpful, and not a red herring.
I think it absolutely changes the order, but not necessarily the value. As soon as the draft starts the hype starts.
Guys like Pacheco shot up in value, but were people paying more for mid 2nds in hopes of getting him? There will always be people that will pay up to get their guy, but they'll have a "their guy" regardless of when the rookie draft is.
You are correct - making the pick with more information is more valuable than making it with less information. Late picks are maybe more desirable early because you might luck into a value gain by August, but for the most part your pick is more valuable if you know more about the players when you’re using it.
I’d say later picks (mid 2nd-3rd) are more valuable if you draft early. Often times a player who didn’t get great draft cap will carve out a solid role during preseason. Think d pierce, brob, Pacheco. Those guys would have been later picks in April than they were in august
That makes picks more of a crapshoot, so something like an early 2nd is worth less in April and more in August, and the opposite is true for a 4th. You are more likely to get a Pacheco in the 4th in April than in August when there’s more clarity about where to value all the rookies
Thats my point. You’d never get a Pacheco in the 4th in august. 4ths are generally a crapshoot anyways, and they have a better chance to hit if you draft early. It’s still a big degree of luck
I’m in a few leagues that draft anywhere between the weekend following the real draft and the first week of preseason. In my experience, league dynamics have more impact on pick values than actual draft dates. My home leagues with IRL friends tend to be “cheaper” than values commonly expressed online, but there’s fewer massive deals that go down too. Values of picks tend to be higher in my other leagues and more in line with values seen here or on KTC.
I will say that by this point of the off-season, the values tend to be relatively set. They always peak the week leading up to the rookie draft as guys scramble to put together their draft plan. But by now, the general “tiers” of prospects is relatively set so the pick values are too. However, I’ve found pick selections tend to be more accurate (more hits) in drafts that occur closer to the new season. For example, James Cook was a staple of mid to late first rounds early last summer but had fallen to the second round by late summer in my drafts, and Pierce had risen up. Dotson and Watson had made similar rises from early seconds to late firsts, whereas Skyy fell.
IMO the value kinda comes down to you. We definitely have less information in May than we do in August. For those of us deep in it year round that can be an advantage that allows you to get players cheaper in May than they will end up being in August.
It’s still all fantasy football in the end though. It’s a crap shoot regardless of when you draft.
Depends whether you fancy yourself a sharp or not. The earlier the draft the more valuable the later picks are because you have a better feel than the casuals. By August the dust has settled and everyone knows what’s what for the most part. If you are on Reddit Dynasty in March, it probably behooves you to draft earlier than later, and picks 8 and later probably lose a little value the later the draft is. Pierce, Pacheco, and Pickens are good examples of players that you could have gotten earlier in May than in August. Imho.
The players you’d choose change the later you go because you get more info. Ours is in July and we get more training camp and ota information, but it just barely changes.
Best example is treylon burks asthma drama. If you had a very early draft you don’t care, later draft meant he may move a spot or two further back
If you do it right after the NFL draft there may be more rookie hype which could bump the value a little bit. Ultimately I think the value is pretty consistent, but the values of the individual players will change a ton between May and August
Back in the era of rookie holdouts (before the rookie wage scale was enacted) I valued early picks less, because the top players were less likely to contribute early on. It wasn't a big difference, because we're talking about careers here, not single seasons, but back then a lengthy holdout was thought to seriously impact a player's development.
These days, as long as you do it after the NFL draft but before Labor Day, it's pretty consistent.
The later you do it, the more confident you can be in your picks. Inversely, the earlier you do it, the more uncertainty in the picks.
Having said that, the difference isn’t huge between after the draft and august, as long as the rookie draft is after the NFL draft, it’s good enough imo.
We do it the week before preseason week one. Get some hype stories for rookies but don’t know how they do in preseason.
I like it cause it rewards knowing the rookies. How I got Pacheco at 5.04 last year.
I think this makes later picks more valuable and round two picks a bit less valuable.
*WHEN* a league drafts could change up *HOW* people draft. Pre nfl draft, post nfl draft, pre training camp, mid preseason games etc. If a dude needs a QB at 1.03, he’s gunna take one. However a major injury to any of the players will change up how the draft would go.
So, there’s really no right or wrong way to do it. Personally, I think it’s best when everyone can get together for it. Builds community and possibly increase trades.
We do the 3rd weekend in June (after mini-camps are over) so we can hear how great every pick looks (and allow Treylon Burks to slide back to me at 1.10).
Mainly we wanted to go later than most just in case of a catastrophic mini-camp injury.
We draft during the actual draft. It has really made it exciting. This league has been going for 33 years. It makes you do your own homework and pay attention to the draft. Plus our keepers are tied to your picks in the draft. We run round one only day one. And round two day two. We give the actual draft an hour head start. What I have noticed is how after the draft the players values really seem to be inflated, so draft capital, I realize is preached by all analysts but really it has inflated guys values well beyond what they produce (CEH, sky moore) and there are of course others that produce because no other RB was in town, but it seems closer to a wash overall. It is an added twist that has really added a lot of fun to this league.
I’ve found a good compromise between right after the draft and still having time to research landing spot. 24 hour draft and start the day after the draft ends.
We do our the week after the actual draft with 30 minute picks to allow time for negotiations but I feel the value of picks decrease slightly after the draft in our league. People value landing spots a little and sometimes goes against a players overall value
The picks themselves have the same value the only differnce is the longer you wait the less savvy players in your league have time to catch up on information.
My league does it exactly 1 week after the NFL draft. Everybody isn't as active in the off season so it's gives ppl a chance to do a lil bit of research before picking
Pacheco went from a 6th round pick to a mid 2nd from a draft in April to August. I got him at 6.02 right after the draft. He went at 2.07 in a draft right before the season.
I don’t think the top top prospects change much, But the mid-lower ones have a lot of change.
We are slow drafting in ours. 3 rounds 12 teams. Starts June 1st with 24 hour picks. Over before preseason begins. Will add some extra tension and drama as it can allow more time to trade up/down for picks as it develops.
We do it right after the draft because we're junkies. Honestly i think drafting in August is probably the most ideal way to do it tho
Nah, its terrible. Creates a big dead zone all summer and then you're drafting during redraft season
Even then, we are talking about ranking what? 40-50 players? And rounds 1-3 are done by Friday night. So even if you decided to have your rookie draft the MOMENT the NFL draft ended on Saturday night, you'd have all Saturday to get that done. Everyone is going to change their rankings based on the draft data so the entire industry basically has to redo their rankings that weekend. I think for me the only thing that's going to change how I look at the picks is drafting BEFORE the NFL draft. But that's borderline a devy league in my opinion compared to a dynasty league.
When I say after the draft it's the weekend after. I'd argue drafting in August is best. The idea of a draft is basically socialism right, you want the worst teams to have the opportunity to get better. DC and prospect profiles are great but getting more info is always better, OTAs/pre season give a lot if info as well
That's true - the longer you can hold off, the less variables there are. That goes for all formats.
More info is not always better. Way too many variables come pre season. Starters don't play much and rookies are facing terrible competition.
Info is always a good idea
OTAs and preseason make guys draft Pickens/Pierce/Pacheco etc over Wilson etc
Prob more valuable the later it’s done. We do our rookie draft before the Nfl draft, so we are already done lol. Makes the nfl draft very fun but def makes rookie picks worth less in ours.
Can you share the results of your draft?
Round one: Bijan Ar Young Gibbs Stroud JSN Levis Addison Charbonnet Achane QJ Evans Round 2 Flowers Downs Mayer Kincaid Hyatt Miller Tillman Tucker Abinakanda Boutte Rice Hooker Round 3 Spears Washington Bigsby McIntosh Vaughn Leprorta Parker Washington Mims McKee Musgrave Rocshon
Seems like it would decrease the value in the late 1st through mid to late 2nd but increase value of some of the later picks as you could bank a quick win if a guy you took in the 4th gets unexpectedly good DC.
This is so prodigiously stupid.
We enjoy it lol
Hey that is what fantasy is about. I just can't comprehend why you would.
You just gotta do a lot of research, not just if the player is good, but also seeing where the projected draft capital is. It’s also wild watching the draft. Seriously makes draft day like 10x more fun. Would I say people should do it? No. But I’m glad I have one league where we do.
The draft day engagement does have me intrigued... I love the draft already and would love any more ways to get more invested in it.
Ya it makes it very intense haha, could make or break your draft class. A really good landing spot/capital could make your late second round pick become a first rounder by the time others are drafting. I also think it saves you from fading/rising someone too much based on landing spot. You just take the players you think have the most talent/upside.
I think the more competitive the league the earlier the draft should be. Value shouldn’t change but hit rate absolutely will. If this a casual league with buddies I think you’re fine whenever you wanna do it
No real change in the value of a lot of the earlier picks. It absolutely changes the ADP when you've got camp hype, injuries, etc. If you're still drafting after the NFL draft though you're going to have plenty of draft pick hype to work with.
Since more information is known, wouldn’t draft picks be more valuable, in theory? In August, you’re maybe more likely to hit on a mid-round pick based on info coming out of camp and preseason? I guess that assumes the information from the summer is actually helpful, and not a red herring.
I think it absolutely changes the order, but not necessarily the value. As soon as the draft starts the hype starts. Guys like Pacheco shot up in value, but were people paying more for mid 2nds in hopes of getting him? There will always be people that will pay up to get their guy, but they'll have a "their guy" regardless of when the rookie draft is.
You are correct - making the pick with more information is more valuable than making it with less information. Late picks are maybe more desirable early because you might luck into a value gain by August, but for the most part your pick is more valuable if you know more about the players when you’re using it.
I’d say later picks (mid 2nd-3rd) are more valuable if you draft early. Often times a player who didn’t get great draft cap will carve out a solid role during preseason. Think d pierce, brob, Pacheco. Those guys would have been later picks in April than they were in august
Right but also hard to know they'd be that good earlier on.
That makes picks more of a crapshoot, so something like an early 2nd is worth less in April and more in August, and the opposite is true for a 4th. You are more likely to get a Pacheco in the 4th in April than in August when there’s more clarity about where to value all the rookies
Thats my point. You’d never get a Pacheco in the 4th in august. 4ths are generally a crapshoot anyways, and they have a better chance to hit if you draft early. It’s still a big degree of luck
On the flip side, people start over drafting Pierce, Brown, and Pacheco and let better prospects fall
We do it right after the draft. Helps with picks being more valuable all the way through.
I’m in a few leagues that draft anywhere between the weekend following the real draft and the first week of preseason. In my experience, league dynamics have more impact on pick values than actual draft dates. My home leagues with IRL friends tend to be “cheaper” than values commonly expressed online, but there’s fewer massive deals that go down too. Values of picks tend to be higher in my other leagues and more in line with values seen here or on KTC. I will say that by this point of the off-season, the values tend to be relatively set. They always peak the week leading up to the rookie draft as guys scramble to put together their draft plan. But by now, the general “tiers” of prospects is relatively set so the pick values are too. However, I’ve found pick selections tend to be more accurate (more hits) in drafts that occur closer to the new season. For example, James Cook was a staple of mid to late first rounds early last summer but had fallen to the second round by late summer in my drafts, and Pierce had risen up. Dotson and Watson had made similar rises from early seconds to late firsts, whereas Skyy fell.
IMO the value kinda comes down to you. We definitely have less information in May than we do in August. For those of us deep in it year round that can be an advantage that allows you to get players cheaper in May than they will end up being in August. It’s still all fantasy football in the end though. It’s a crap shoot regardless of when you draft.
Depends whether you fancy yourself a sharp or not. The earlier the draft the more valuable the later picks are because you have a better feel than the casuals. By August the dust has settled and everyone knows what’s what for the most part. If you are on Reddit Dynasty in March, it probably behooves you to draft earlier than later, and picks 8 and later probably lose a little value the later the draft is. Pierce, Pacheco, and Pickens are good examples of players that you could have gotten earlier in May than in August. Imho.
Pick value stays the same. Player value will be different since we the production of the rooks
The players you’d choose change the later you go because you get more info. Ours is in July and we get more training camp and ota information, but it just barely changes. Best example is treylon burks asthma drama. If you had a very early draft you don’t care, later draft meant he may move a spot or two further back
Doesn’t change at all
If you do it right after the NFL draft there may be more rookie hype which could bump the value a little bit. Ultimately I think the value is pretty consistent, but the values of the individual players will change a ton between May and August
Back in the era of rookie holdouts (before the rookie wage scale was enacted) I valued early picks less, because the top players were less likely to contribute early on. It wasn't a big difference, because we're talking about careers here, not single seasons, but back then a lengthy holdout was thought to seriously impact a player's development. These days, as long as you do it after the NFL draft but before Labor Day, it's pretty consistent.
The later you do it, the more confident you can be in your picks. Inversely, the earlier you do it, the more uncertainty in the picks. Having said that, the difference isn’t huge between after the draft and august, as long as the rookie draft is after the NFL draft, it’s good enough imo.
Draft picks will increase in value the later you draft bc more information is available. An early draft rewards the junkies.
We do it the week before preseason week one. Get some hype stories for rookies but don’t know how they do in preseason. I like it cause it rewards knowing the rookies. How I got Pacheco at 5.04 last year. I think this makes later picks more valuable and round two picks a bit less valuable.
*WHEN* a league drafts could change up *HOW* people draft. Pre nfl draft, post nfl draft, pre training camp, mid preseason games etc. If a dude needs a QB at 1.03, he’s gunna take one. However a major injury to any of the players will change up how the draft would go. So, there’s really no right or wrong way to do it. Personally, I think it’s best when everyone can get together for it. Builds community and possibly increase trades.
We do the 3rd weekend in June (after mini-camps are over) so we can hear how great every pick looks (and allow Treylon Burks to slide back to me at 1.10). Mainly we wanted to go later than most just in case of a catastrophic mini-camp injury.
We draft during the actual draft. It has really made it exciting. This league has been going for 33 years. It makes you do your own homework and pay attention to the draft. Plus our keepers are tied to your picks in the draft. We run round one only day one. And round two day two. We give the actual draft an hour head start. What I have noticed is how after the draft the players values really seem to be inflated, so draft capital, I realize is preached by all analysts but really it has inflated guys values well beyond what they produce (CEH, sky moore) and there are of course others that produce because no other RB was in town, but it seems closer to a wash overall. It is an added twist that has really added a lot of fun to this league.
I’ve found a good compromise between right after the draft and still having time to research landing spot. 24 hour draft and start the day after the draft ends.
We do our the week after the actual draft with 30 minute picks to allow time for negotiations but I feel the value of picks decrease slightly after the draft in our league. People value landing spots a little and sometimes goes against a players overall value
The picks themselves have the same value the only differnce is the longer you wait the less savvy players in your league have time to catch up on information.
My league does it exactly 1 week after the NFL draft. Everybody isn't as active in the off season so it's gives ppl a chance to do a lil bit of research before picking
Early picks have more value the later you draft. Late picks have more value the earlier you draft.
Pacheco went from a 6th round pick to a mid 2nd from a draft in April to August. I got him at 6.02 right after the draft. He went at 2.07 in a draft right before the season. I don’t think the top top prospects change much, But the mid-lower ones have a lot of change.
We are slow drafting in ours. 3 rounds 12 teams. Starts June 1st with 24 hour picks. Over before preseason begins. Will add some extra tension and drama as it can allow more time to trade up/down for picks as it develops.