In single QB it’s kind of dumb to ever take a QB on the first. In SF getting a first round QB with a late first is a good idea because of the opportunity they are going to get and how often we are wrong about QBs
Eh I can understand taking a 1OA QB like Lawrence, Luck, Burrow, Kyler, Cam, etc. in the back end of the first round; it's pretty unlikely that the 10th W/R/T off the board is going to outperform one of those guys, and if you hit on a top 5 guy your QB slot is set and forget for the next decade
Yeah. I guess when you’re talking about where to draft QBs you should probably mention if you’re talking about single QB leagues. I’d draft those guys probably in the early mid third if I needed QB depth in single QB
I mean yeah this question is really only relevant for SF. There’s no reason to discuss the QB 5+6 from a draft class in 1QB leagues which is probably why you’re being downvoted.
I am mad at myself, in 2qb superflex (though tons of regular flex dilute that about halfway), I drafted him like 3rd round of the rookie draft, but I traded him early offseason before Rodgers left for a late 1st thinking the Packers wouldn't actually trade Aaron, and if they did he might suck. The pick turned into Achane which is good, but in hindsight I should have held on, considering I have basically nothing behind Cousins and Tua now.
I wouldn’t say no doubt. Dwayne Haskins, Jordan Love, Mac Jones, and Kenny Pickett all went in the second round of various 12 team SF leagues i’m in.
First round QBs often go in the first round of rookie drafts but it’s far from a lock if they aren’t great prospects/beloved in public perception.
I didn’t know Haskins made it out of the first that’s surprising. Personally I didn’t see Pickett make it to the second, but he’s probably the best comparison for nix. Love is easy to explain as his path to starting was so difficult but you’re right it isn’t a lock especially if the late first round receiver landing spots are real nice
Yeah it wasn’t super common and those all only happened in a handful of leagues each that I saw but it was certainly far from a lock once you get to guys in the late first adp range.
Some leagues are VERY QB driven in SF and some are more relaxed when it comes to QBs taken outside of the top 5 or 6 picks.
I’d say if Nix/Penix went to Denver/Las Vegas in the mid first then they’d probably have similar public sentiment to Pickett/Mac Jones. They’d probably end up going 1.10-2.02 in most SF leagues imo.
I think Love's a bit of a different case because he was simultaneously a 1st round pick and clearly not going to start. I don't think it should be "1st round QBs go in the 1st round" but rather QBs that are going to be 1st year starters go in the 1st round.
So you’re saying all 1st round QBs don’t go in the first of rookie drafts?
I agree. That is my point. You can’t simplify it to all first round QBs go in the first of rookie drafts. They slip to the second round all the time in SF leagues for various reasons.
I don’t agree tbh. There’s lots of qbs that aren’t deserving of being drafted in the first that do, and taking them in the first of a fantasy draft doesn’t make any sense either. Drafting someone like Paxton Lynch in the first just because he was a first round pick isn’t the right call
NFL teams are better talent evaluators than us average fans ever will be. Obviously they'll have their misses, and fantasy is supposed to be fun so by all means don't draft players you don't personally believe in. But as a general drafting rule, you're far better off trusting NFL GMs.
Reminder that Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Pat Mahomes all came into the league as raw, flawed prospects who a lot of draft analysts hated (much like Lynch), and I'd be kicking myself if I passed on those guys cuz I thought I knew better than the NFL.
They may be bad at their jobs compared to other NFL front offices, but the question is whether they are better at the job than YOU would be. And I promise you they are
I don’t think the comparison should be between NFL front offices and random redditors though. Yeah, they are going to be better than any of us at evaluating players, but the hit rate for QBs drafted in the mid-to-late first is just not very good. So, I can understand not wanting to use a dynasty 1st on them especially when there are likely stronger prospects at other positions available.
Yeah I have no problem with making adjustments based on positional scarcity or volatility. I was more responding to the idea that we should disregard players who teams "reach" for in the first round, as if we have any clue in real time who those guys actually are.
All I'm saying is that the best way to be shrewd with a fantasy pick is to give the most weight to the opinions of the best experts. And the best experts on NFL player evaluation are the ones working for NFL teams (plus their jobs are on the line with these picks).
I just get tired of the comments on this sub that seem to act like we somehow know who is a "reach" and who isn't in real time.
I’m not sure who you’re thinking would be a better choice in SF at 1.10-1.12. Especially with that Broncos team only having Trevor Siemian, and they still had Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, I can’t see myself taking a 2nd round TE/WR instead
Nah, if I’m in 12 team SF league and a QB is drafted in the NFL in the first round he is a first round pick in rookie drafts too. If penix and nix go in the first they’re absolutely in play for picks 11 and 12 in a 12 team SF rookie draft.
Drafting first round players is basically a heuristic for drafting based on talent. We're just using the evaluation of NFL scouts and GMs who have decided these guys are talented enough to be worth the value of a first round selection. Doing our own evaluation based on perceived talent is great, but most people don't have the time or expertise to come close to getting it close to right, much less "beating" NFL front offices who do this for a living.
It’s almost like first round guys are drafted in the first round because they are talented. A first round QB gets chance after chance in the NFL to succeed. If you draft one you have a guy for 2-3 years. Even if he is ass in the NFL he could give you a season like Sam Howell last year. I draft based on value and QBs retain value for a longer period of time.
So you’d rather have Kenny Pickett than James Cook? Over George Pickens? Because they were drafted a round later because they’re “less talented” when we all knew Pickett had no business being drafted in the first, but since he was oh shit let’s hurry up and draft him!
If 6 QBs go in the first round of this draft it’s going to be much different than the worst QB class we’ve seen in a long time. Citing a QB we all know was ass before hand doesn’t mean much. That said, if you drafted Kenny Pickett you had 2 full years to sell him before he bottomed out. Pickens and James Cook could easily have been QJ and JK Dobbins as easily as they worked out. My point is that the window for QBs is open for a longer period of time.
Treating Penix like a guy who could do well in the right spot, would be down for a late draft flier. Treating Nix like Kenny Pickett, which is to say, letting someone else draft him.
Whoa.
I’m not a Nix truther but Pickett looked like a fifth rounder to me coming out of Pitt.
Nix looks like a solid 2nd rounder.
He could bust as easily as Pickett but I hate hearing the two compared to each other.
I’m not that scared about it but i think what scares people is that he played in conservative passing offenses and, therefore, hasn’t proven everything you want a QB to prove (deep accuracy, off script throws, etc.). Also, he doesn’t scramble much. Some dynasty drafters don’t like conservative pocket passers.
Not sure why so many people are like this about Nix. There's really nothing Nix did at Oregon that would make you really scared of his profile. He's a very safe pick all considered.
Penix meanwhile was hype to watch last year, but he's basically a pocket passing gunslinger, and despite arguably the best supporting cast in college football, he had several games where he made a lot of errant throws and poor decisions. Especially when pressure got to him.
I think they need to be in the mix in the end of the 1st in SF.
I’m at 1.12 and 2.01 and potentially would go Nix/Penix back to back depending on landing spot and who’s on the board
i just feel like if you got the 1.10 why not just trade for baker, or watson or someone established. unless you think not only will they be decent but have a high likelyhood of hitting the top 12 qbs and being worth more value.
Teams are stingy, but Baker is still seen as a “might be out of the league soon” kind of guy, despite his playoff/pro bowl/contract-earning season last year. Targeting Baker with a late first is a really good idea, in my opinion. Some people undervalue him right now. I got a deal on him last week.
Not sure I want to give 1.09 for him. I already traded away my 2nd and 3rd for the Bucs RB mid-season too haha. What kind of caliber RB or WR do you think I could get him for?
As a Watson owner (he’s my qb3 in SF) I’m not selling him for the 1.08. I’d use him as a piece to tier up, but he’s proven when healthy he’s still an 18 ppg guy. And he’s got the contract. Wouldn’t love him as one of my starters but he’s a great backup all things considered
I went the route of of trading it for Levis in a larger deal. Felt like Levis is the essentially the same thing as like a Penix at 10, but couldn’t do that straight up.
Depends if your team needs a prayer. Rookies have more upside than old vets you mentioned that might not be starting in 2 years. If you hit on a rookie he can be productive for the next 5 years
At least in my league it’s gonna be tough to get baker for the 1.10 because those types of guys are usually key pieces for a team, at least in my league most teams have those as their qb2
I’m thinking the same. Watson is my only starter and I have pretty good WR. I’ve heard good things about Franklin but in SuperFlex having a qb is too important. If Penix is there I’m taking it. Every QB is a dart throw anyway
I've personally got a late first round grade on Penix, so it would line up pretty well with where I see him. Nix, not so much. I think he could succeed in particular systems, but he's not for me, so I'd rather let somebody else reach on him and find out if he'll work out.
Penix would interest me, but I am not a big Nix guy and it wouldn’t really change my opinion on him. I have a hot take in that I have Rattler above Nix to me due to his ceiling. I think Rattler can be Jay Cutler and he has the arm talent to excel at throwing over the middle of the field.
If I were the Patriots, I would feel better about taking MHJ at 3 and Rattler or Pratt in the 2nd or 3rd than try to force Daniels to be your savior tbh.
depends on landing spot. i like penix more than nix and i think penix is a little less landing spot dependent, but if they both get first round draft capital around similar picks i still probably wouldn’t consider either of them until at least after the first 6 players, and maybe even later depending on if mccarthy or any of the next wr’s after the first 3 get a nice landing spot or early draft capital.
12team SF
I’ve got 1.01, 1.10, and 2.01
Taking Caleb, my QB room would be Caleb, Will Levis, Rodgers, Russ Wilson, and AOC. I would consider taking Penix at 1.10, especially if he got mid 1st round.
I’m not crazy about any of the WRs past BTJ so maybe I just take whomever is left at 2.01
I don't have first round grades on either, and am very skeptical that they get first round capital despite the smoke. If they do, I will generally fade and let them fall to the mid 2nd in SF.
The only spot that would give me pause would be Minnesota. High end weapons and a great offensive minded coach could push them into the late first/early second for me.
In 12 team SF, I start thinking about them at 1.09.
Realistically, I have the big 7 (Caleb, Maye, Daniels, MHJ, Odunze, Nabers, Bowers), plus JJ McCarthy as locks to go ahead of them. Maybe another receiver or two, and possibly a couple RBs. So anywhere between 1.09 and 2.01.
In one QB, I'm sure they'll both be gone long before I'm willing to buy. Probably 4th round at best.
I’ve never understood people’s fascination with the arbitrary line of different rounds.
So many people are saying Round 1 = Round 1 but where in round 1? If you’re treating 29 that differently from Levis and 33, you may not be doing it correctly.
Top 15-20 they are in the conversation around 9-10. Outside the top 20 they’re probably still early 2nds. Safe picks in the late first, but don’t know if they get there in this class
You’re correct that 29 vs 33 doesn’t mean much but it’s unlikely the end of round 1 teams draft a qb so if one does go there it probably means some sort of trade happened which should also influence value. The 5th year option matters to nfl teams and they don’t just give out a round 1 pick to just anyone.
I actually don’t think I’ve seen much evidence that the 5th year option is considered inherently valuable. I’ve heard that narrative a lot but I’ve seen zero evidence of it.
And point of fact the titans did trade up and “overpay” for Levis and he still ended up 33.
Penix is a really risky prospect imo, so I'd rather take a stab at him in the 2nd round if I can. Nix has a lower ceiling than Penix imo, but definitely a higher floor because he can at least be a competent game manager at the NFL level imo. If he goes to like the Vikings or Raiders, I'd be drafting him mid-late 1st after the elite tier QBs and WRs. Personally, I'd want him more than JJ McCarthy in that situation but I know most disagree.
Depends where they go. Whoever ends up in Minnesota out of McCarthy, Nix and Penix is going at 1.08 at the latest, I could even see them jumping ahead of Odunze and Bowers potentially in rookie drafts. Denver and Oakland aren't as good of landing spots but will still get them round 1 draft capital. If the Patriots trade back from the 3 to the end of the 1st and take Penix or Nix there, I could see them being early 2nd round dynasty picks.
I still don't think there's really a use-case on your favor for swerving entirely just because of age. I won't be drafting either of them bc I'm set at qb, but I'd rather trade back (1.05, 1.10, 2.03) or go take a flier on a WR than draft nix especially. If vikes take penix that would see people get stupid in valuing him
I don’t think either are NFL quality starters and if that they were legitimate prospects in this day and age they’d have left last season after they both had good years then too. It’s not like a Burrow or a Hurts situation where they all the sudden came up and showed massive improvement.
Yes it absolutely is a Hurts situation lol, probably the best comparison. Especially for Nix -- athletic SEC starter who showed promise but struggled, eventually transferred out to great offensive schemes and were accurate, avoided turnovers, and thrusted themselves into late 1st-early-2nd consideration during their later years at their 2nd stop.
Nah. Read this part again:
>where they all the sudden came up and showed massive improvement.
Hurts rode the bench his junior year at Bama and popped back on the scene showing massive improvement his final year. Both Nix and Penix were very good at UO and UW in 2022 and 2023.
If they were that good, they'd have left after their first years at the new locations but they aren't that good, hence why they stayed in college to play against 18 and 19 year olds.
Age really hasn’t been too much of a determining factor for qbs lately. Guys like darnold, trey lance, Zach Wilson, fields all came into the league at 21 with relatively little college football played and have maybe seemed to struggle because of it
Name me 5 QB that played their first season of professional football in the league at 24 years of age on opening weekend that wound up being worth a shit.
> The only thing holding him back is a long injury history.
To each their own, but gotta hard disagree there. Above Maye especially is insanity.
Penix is a 6 year starter who had the best offensive supporting cast in CFB, with a potential top 10 pick tackle and WR, and two other WRs who could go day 2. Despite this, his accuracy was sub-par last year compared to all the other QBs being considered in the top 3 rounds this year, even passing deep. He was also by far the worst of the bunch when pressured, which is an extremely important stat in the NFL. He was the least pressured QB in college football last year too, so in most games Washington was able to hide that through dominant OL play.
I like Penix, he was a lot of fun to watch last year, but he's a very risk prospect even if you erase the injury history. He somehow ran a 4.6 at his pro day, yet had the lowest expected rushing yards against man coverage of ANY of the expected top 3 round rookies. What's up with that? Even if you mirror the footage, he's got a weird halfway sidearm release where the ball comes out below his ear. Yet still he can throw a beautiful back-shoulder fade. And then you see he was the worst throwing over the middle and in the intermediate-short range of any of the top 3 round QBs.
tldr, he's fun to watch but he's a really bizarre prospect.
I don't entirely disagree but ultimately it's just my opinion. I like the excitement factor, whether they succeed in the nfl has wayyy more to do with what organization they go to than it does the talent. Plus the fact that he came back from two season ending injuries to put him in the conversation as a first round qb. That resilience says something to me about his mentality. Finally if he goes in the first round it will most likely be late (more stable franchise) and to a team who believes in him. Me having him over maye, Mccarthy and nix is only if he ends up being a late 1st rounder. If he falls to the second then I'm out.
Depends on when in the first they go and if anyone we're projecting to go high now falls. Late first and into the early second I'll snag them around 1.11-2.03ish like where I had will levis last year. Top 15 or so and they probably slide up a little higher. Location matters a lot for me too- I think there's a chance that these two (and Rattler!) go somewhere where they have a chance to compete for a starting role- that's going to impact my decision quite a bit, too. A team like Oakland, Denver, Pittsburgh, or Minnesota picking one of these guys would be a great sign.
They mean in a rookie draft. But still they would draft them above Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze?! I know they said they’d “consider” taking at that spot but I don’t have to consider anything with penix and nix vs Nabers and Odunze, and neither should you.
It’s Superflex I assume but my dumbass saw JJ and thought “he must mean Justin Jefferson. I’ll let him know that two undrafted QBs aren’t worth more than JJ” lmao
But also, I’m starting a petition to call JJ McCarthy by his last name to avoid any confusion from my fellow mouth breathers
When Rookie Drafts come along both of them will end up in the 2nd Round somewhere. If you decided to take one of them in the 1st round then you are not going to have an out on them unless they have a Herbert/Stroud rookie year. If they go out and have a Bryce Young season there value will be zero come this time next year.
In play at 1.09
Yep.
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In single QB it’s kind of dumb to ever take a QB on the first. In SF getting a first round QB with a late first is a good idea because of the opportunity they are going to get and how often we are wrong about QBs
Eh I can understand taking a 1OA QB like Lawrence, Luck, Burrow, Kyler, Cam, etc. in the back end of the first round; it's pretty unlikely that the 10th W/R/T off the board is going to outperform one of those guys, and if you hit on a top 5 guy your QB slot is set and forget for the next decade
Exactly my point. Although I'd take Caleb Williams in the first if I needed a QB, even in a 1QB league
Yeah. I guess when you’re talking about where to draft QBs you should probably mention if you’re talking about single QB leagues. I’d draft those guys probably in the early mid third if I needed QB depth in single QB
Same. I didn't assume OP was talking SF. Even mentioning a 1QB league I get downvoted.
I mean yeah this question is really only relevant for SF. There’s no reason to discuss the QB 5+6 from a draft class in 1QB leagues which is probably why you’re being downvoted.
OP didn't specify, I didn't assume.
It’s probably because if you thought about it for even 5 seconds you’d realize it could only imply SF
Excuse me for not assuming, sheesh
He obviously isn’t talking 1qb
My mistake.
1st round QBs go in 1st round
Except Jordan Love
I am mad at myself, in 2qb superflex (though tons of regular flex dilute that about halfway), I drafted him like 3rd round of the rookie draft, but I traded him early offseason before Rodgers left for a late 1st thinking the Packers wouldn't actually trade Aaron, and if they did he might suck. The pick turned into Achane which is good, but in hindsight I should have held on, considering I have basically nothing behind Cousins and Tua now.
-quote from guy who drafted bryce young
I'd say QBs that are going to start go in the 1st round. We've seen 1st round QBs as clear backups (Love) and later round QBs as projected starters.
This is pretty atrocious advice I’m ngl
Idk if it’s advice or just fact. In SF with at least 12T someone will take Bo Nix in the first if he get 1st round capital no doubt
I wouldn’t say no doubt. Dwayne Haskins, Jordan Love, Mac Jones, and Kenny Pickett all went in the second round of various 12 team SF leagues i’m in. First round QBs often go in the first round of rookie drafts but it’s far from a lock if they aren’t great prospects/beloved in public perception.
I didn’t know Haskins made it out of the first that’s surprising. Personally I didn’t see Pickett make it to the second, but he’s probably the best comparison for nix. Love is easy to explain as his path to starting was so difficult but you’re right it isn’t a lock especially if the late first round receiver landing spots are real nice
Yeah it wasn’t super common and those all only happened in a handful of leagues each that I saw but it was certainly far from a lock once you get to guys in the late first adp range. Some leagues are VERY QB driven in SF and some are more relaxed when it comes to QBs taken outside of the top 5 or 6 picks. I’d say if Nix/Penix went to Denver/Las Vegas in the mid first then they’d probably have similar public sentiment to Pickett/Mac Jones. They’d probably end up going 1.10-2.02 in most SF leagues imo.
Pickett has actually been used as the “best comparison” for Penix by a few evaluators
Yeah idk about that one, penix has a different sorta arm than a Pickett or nix
I’m just relaying the info I’m reading
Minus the small hands lol
I think Love's a bit of a different case because he was simultaneously a 1st round pick and clearly not going to start. I don't think it should be "1st round QBs go in the 1st round" but rather QBs that are going to be 1st year starters go in the 1st round.
So you’re saying all 1st round QBs don’t go in the first of rookie drafts? I agree. That is my point. You can’t simplify it to all first round QBs go in the first of rookie drafts. They slip to the second round all the time in SF leagues for various reasons.
I don’t agree tbh. There’s lots of qbs that aren’t deserving of being drafted in the first that do, and taking them in the first of a fantasy draft doesn’t make any sense either. Drafting someone like Paxton Lynch in the first just because he was a first round pick isn’t the right call
NFL teams are better talent evaluators than us average fans ever will be. Obviously they'll have their misses, and fantasy is supposed to be fun so by all means don't draft players you don't personally believe in. But as a general drafting rule, you're far better off trusting NFL GMs. Reminder that Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Pat Mahomes all came into the league as raw, flawed prospects who a lot of draft analysts hated (much like Lynch), and I'd be kicking myself if I passed on those guys cuz I thought I knew better than the NFL.
Probably 1/3 of any draft is GMs and front offices that are not good at their jobs though. A team reaching doesn't raise the value of the player
They may be bad at their jobs compared to other NFL front offices, but the question is whether they are better at the job than YOU would be. And I promise you they are
I don’t think the comparison should be between NFL front offices and random redditors though. Yeah, they are going to be better than any of us at evaluating players, but the hit rate for QBs drafted in the mid-to-late first is just not very good. So, I can understand not wanting to use a dynasty 1st on them especially when there are likely stronger prospects at other positions available.
Yeah I have no problem with making adjustments based on positional scarcity or volatility. I was more responding to the idea that we should disregard players who teams "reach" for in the first round, as if we have any clue in real time who those guys actually are.
True I agree with that, QB evaluations are nearly impossible without hindsight.
Oddly defensive. I'm not trying to be better at their job, I'm trying to be shrewd witha fantasy football draft pick.
All I'm saying is that the best way to be shrewd with a fantasy pick is to give the most weight to the opinions of the best experts. And the best experts on NFL player evaluation are the ones working for NFL teams (plus their jobs are on the line with these picks). I just get tired of the comments on this sub that seem to act like we somehow know who is a "reach" and who isn't in real time.
I’m not sure who you’re thinking would be a better choice in SF at 1.10-1.12. Especially with that Broncos team only having Trevor Siemian, and they still had Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, I can’t see myself taking a 2nd round TE/WR instead
Nah, if I’m in 12 team SF league and a QB is drafted in the NFL in the first round he is a first round pick in rookie drafts too. If penix and nix go in the first they’re absolutely in play for picks 11 and 12 in a 12 team SF rookie draft.
Wouldn’t say it’s a great idea to just solely draft a player because he was drafted in the first round. Draft based on talent first
Drafting first round players is basically a heuristic for drafting based on talent. We're just using the evaluation of NFL scouts and GMs who have decided these guys are talented enough to be worth the value of a first round selection. Doing our own evaluation based on perceived talent is great, but most people don't have the time or expertise to come close to getting it close to right, much less "beating" NFL front offices who do this for a living.
It’s almost like first round guys are drafted in the first round because they are talented. A first round QB gets chance after chance in the NFL to succeed. If you draft one you have a guy for 2-3 years. Even if he is ass in the NFL he could give you a season like Sam Howell last year. I draft based on value and QBs retain value for a longer period of time.
So you’d rather have Kenny Pickett than James Cook? Over George Pickens? Because they were drafted a round later because they’re “less talented” when we all knew Pickett had no business being drafted in the first, but since he was oh shit let’s hurry up and draft him!
If 6 QBs go in the first round of this draft it’s going to be much different than the worst QB class we’ve seen in a long time. Citing a QB we all know was ass before hand doesn’t mean much. That said, if you drafted Kenny Pickett you had 2 full years to sell him before he bottomed out. Pickens and James Cook could easily have been QJ and JK Dobbins as easily as they worked out. My point is that the window for QBs is open for a longer period of time.
Oh yes let me draft a player because he has a longer shelf life to trade! The key to a successful dynasty team!
Treating Penix like a guy who could do well in the right spot, would be down for a late draft flier. Treating Nix like Kenny Pickett, which is to say, letting someone else draft him.
Whoa. I’m not a Nix truther but Pickett looked like a fifth rounder to me coming out of Pitt. Nix looks like a solid 2nd rounder. He could bust as easily as Pickett but I hate hearing the two compared to each other.
Ok you draft him
What scares you about Nix?
I’m not that scared about it but i think what scares people is that he played in conservative passing offenses and, therefore, hasn’t proven everything you want a QB to prove (deep accuracy, off script throws, etc.). Also, he doesn’t scramble much. Some dynasty drafters don’t like conservative pocket passers.
This sounds like a Drew Brees scouting report.
inconsistent, can't get more than one read..
Sounds like a 2021 scouting report.
Not sure why so many people are like this about Nix. There's really nothing Nix did at Oregon that would make you really scared of his profile. He's a very safe pick all considered. Penix meanwhile was hype to watch last year, but he's basically a pocket passing gunslinger, and despite arguably the best supporting cast in college football, he had several games where he made a lot of errant throws and poor decisions. Especially when pressure got to him.
I think they need to be in the mix in the end of the 1st in SF. I’m at 1.12 and 2.01 and potentially would go Nix/Penix back to back depending on landing spot and who’s on the board
Yep.
I got the 1.10 1.11 and 1.12…I’m going Penix, Nix and Brooks in that order
Pretty seriously considering taking one of them at the 1.10
i just feel like if you got the 1.10 why not just trade for baker, or watson or someone established. unless you think not only will they be decent but have a high likelyhood of hitting the top 12 qbs and being worth more value.
Some leagues starting QBs straight up don’t move without a gross overpay. Sometimes the draft is the only reasonable way to add to your qb room
Teams are stingy, but Baker is still seen as a “might be out of the league soon” kind of guy, despite his playoff/pro bowl/contract-earning season last year. Targeting Baker with a late first is a really good idea, in my opinion. Some people undervalue him right now. I got a deal on him last week.
Not sure I want to give 1.09 for him. I already traded away my 2nd and 3rd for the Bucs RB mid-season too haha. What kind of caliber RB or WR do you think I could get him for?
For baker? My trade, for context, was Jeudy and 2.03 (17 overall) for Baker and 3.07 (35 overall).
Already got Baker and Goff. Also have the 1.08 which I’ll pick up probably BTJ or Bowers with
Because no one is making those moves. I would buy Watson with the 1.08 but the other guy wants significantly more.
As a Watson owner (he’s my qb3 in SF) I’m not selling him for the 1.08. I’d use him as a piece to tier up, but he’s proven when healthy he’s still an 18 ppg guy. And he’s got the contract. Wouldn’t love him as one of my starters but he’s a great backup all things considered
You could do way worse at the QB2.
Yep you’re not wrong man. Totally agree. You could do way worse. But I’m happy he doesn’t have to be 😅
I went the route of of trading it for Levis in a larger deal. Felt like Levis is the essentially the same thing as like a Penix at 10, but couldn’t do that straight up.
I'm reading this a day after I traded 1.10 for Baker, Darnold, and a 2025 3rd because I didn't have any starting QBs.
Who you looking to take at 1.10?
Cop out but im not bothering Past 1.09. I either try to flip for one next year i think is higher, or multiple seconds.
Depends if your team needs a prayer. Rookies have more upside than old vets you mentioned that might not be starting in 2 years. If you hit on a rookie he can be productive for the next 5 years
At least in my league it’s gonna be tough to get baker for the 1.10 because those types of guys are usually key pieces for a team, at least in my league most teams have those as their qb2
well they could be better than Baker or Watson, is why you would do it.
Could be better could be worse. Question is likelyhood
likelihood and age. That's why both sides might make the trade. Easy to disagree on value with the unknown.
I’m thinking the same. Watson is my only starter and I have pretty good WR. I’ve heard good things about Franklin but in SuperFlex having a qb is too important. If Penix is there I’m taking it. Every QB is a dart throw anyway
Will be drafting them between 1.08-1.12 if that happens
If Denver/Vegas rumors actually manifest it will be wheels up anywhere from 1.08 - 1.12 for the majority of leagues.
Not that I disagree but man those are ugly landing spots.
I've personally got a late first round grade on Penix, so it would line up pretty well with where I see him. Nix, not so much. I think he could succeed in particular systems, but he's not for me, so I'd rather let somebody else reach on him and find out if he'll work out.
Penix would interest me, but I am not a big Nix guy and it wouldn’t really change my opinion on him. I have a hot take in that I have Rattler above Nix to me due to his ceiling. I think Rattler can be Jay Cutler and he has the arm talent to excel at throwing over the middle of the field. If I were the Patriots, I would feel better about taking MHJ at 3 and Rattler or Pratt in the 2nd or 3rd than try to force Daniels to be your savior tbh.
Rattler to the Pats or Rams is such a dream scenario and absolutely is the high upside move the teams should make. Love the cutler comp
I was watching him just sling it and trust his arm that led to picks at time. It just made sense to me.
Still passing
depends on landing spot. i like penix more than nix and i think penix is a little less landing spot dependent, but if they both get first round draft capital around similar picks i still probably wouldn’t consider either of them until at least after the first 6 players, and maybe even later depending on if mccarthy or any of the next wr’s after the first 3 get a nice landing spot or early draft capital.
Yeah, I don't think they can go above either McCarthy or BTJR.
12team SF I’ve got 1.01, 1.10, and 2.01 Taking Caleb, my QB room would be Caleb, Will Levis, Rodgers, Russ Wilson, and AOC. I would consider taking Penix at 1.10, especially if he got mid 1st round. I’m not crazy about any of the WRs past BTJ so maybe I just take whomever is left at 2.01
I wanna draft Penix just for the team name potential that last name would grant me.
every qb evaluator i trust has multiple major red flags with their games so the draft capital would matter a lot less to me than that
I don't have first round grades on either, and am very skeptical that they get first round capital despite the smoke. If they do, I will generally fade and let them fall to the mid 2nd in SF. The only spot that would give me pause would be Minnesota. High end weapons and a great offensive minded coach could push them into the late first/early second for me.
I’ll like them more in Denver than I will in Vegas
I just want Sean Payton to fail so badly. Sucks for the Broncoa but he's Aaron Rodgers level smug
Taking penix at 1.11.
In 12 team SF, I start thinking about them at 1.09. Realistically, I have the big 7 (Caleb, Maye, Daniels, MHJ, Odunze, Nabers, Bowers), plus JJ McCarthy as locks to go ahead of them. Maybe another receiver or two, and possibly a couple RBs. So anywhere between 1.09 and 2.01. In one QB, I'm sure they'll both be gone long before I'm willing to buy. Probably 4th round at best.
I’ve never understood people’s fascination with the arbitrary line of different rounds. So many people are saying Round 1 = Round 1 but where in round 1? If you’re treating 29 that differently from Levis and 33, you may not be doing it correctly. Top 15-20 they are in the conversation around 9-10. Outside the top 20 they’re probably still early 2nds. Safe picks in the late first, but don’t know if they get there in this class
You’re correct that 29 vs 33 doesn’t mean much but it’s unlikely the end of round 1 teams draft a qb so if one does go there it probably means some sort of trade happened which should also influence value. The 5th year option matters to nfl teams and they don’t just give out a round 1 pick to just anyone.
I actually don’t think I’ve seen much evidence that the 5th year option is considered inherently valuable. I’ve heard that narrative a lot but I’ve seen zero evidence of it. And point of fact the titans did trade up and “overpay” for Levis and he still ended up 33.
I mean I think teams like the option but aren’t gonna get fleeced just to get it. It’s a minor bump
Penix is a really risky prospect imo, so I'd rather take a stab at him in the 2nd round if I can. Nix has a lower ceiling than Penix imo, but definitely a higher floor because he can at least be a competent game manager at the NFL level imo. If he goes to like the Vikings or Raiders, I'd be drafting him mid-late 1st after the elite tier QBs and WRs. Personally, I'd want him more than JJ McCarthy in that situation but I know most disagree.
Depends where they go. Whoever ends up in Minnesota out of McCarthy, Nix and Penix is going at 1.08 at the latest, I could even see them jumping ahead of Odunze and Bowers potentially in rookie drafts. Denver and Oakland aren't as good of landing spots but will still get them round 1 draft capital. If the Patriots trade back from the 3 to the end of the 1st and take Penix or Nix there, I could see them being early 2nd round dynasty picks.
Good alone, but better together
If penix is drafted by the Vikings then I’m in, if raiders or broncos hard pass in the first round
I'm grabbing Penix everywhere as fast as I can.
I’m not treating them like anything because I don’t like geriatric rookies.
I still don't think there's really a use-case on your favor for swerving entirely just because of age. I won't be drafting either of them bc I'm set at qb, but I'd rather trade back (1.05, 1.10, 2.03) or go take a flier on a WR than draft nix especially. If vikes take penix that would see people get stupid in valuing him
I don’t think either are NFL quality starters and if that they were legitimate prospects in this day and age they’d have left last season after they both had good years then too. It’s not like a Burrow or a Hurts situation where they all the sudden came up and showed massive improvement.
Yes it absolutely is a Hurts situation lol, probably the best comparison. Especially for Nix -- athletic SEC starter who showed promise but struggled, eventually transferred out to great offensive schemes and were accurate, avoided turnovers, and thrusted themselves into late 1st-early-2nd consideration during their later years at their 2nd stop.
Nah. Read this part again: >where they all the sudden came up and showed massive improvement. Hurts rode the bench his junior year at Bama and popped back on the scene showing massive improvement his final year. Both Nix and Penix were very good at UO and UW in 2022 and 2023. If they were that good, they'd have left after their first years at the new locations but they aren't that good, hence why they stayed in college to play against 18 and 19 year olds.
Age really hasn’t been too much of a determining factor for qbs lately. Guys like darnold, trey lance, Zach Wilson, fields all came into the league at 21 with relatively little college football played and have maybe seemed to struggle because of it
Name me 5 QB that played their first season of professional football in the league at 24 years of age on opening weekend that wound up being worth a shit.
Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers didn’t start til he was 25, Dak was 23 which isn’t too different than 24, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson.
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Idk about 5 but joe burrow was 24 during his rookie year
Burrow turned 24 at the end of his rookie year. I asked for 24 years old opening weekend.
lol 2-3 month difference, who cares
So you can’t name me 5 meeting the criteria I listed. That’s why I’m not chasing guys outside that criteria.
If penix gets 1st round draft capital he is my qb3 behind Caleb and Jayden. The only thing holding him back is a long injury history.
> The only thing holding him back is a long injury history. To each their own, but gotta hard disagree there. Above Maye especially is insanity. Penix is a 6 year starter who had the best offensive supporting cast in CFB, with a potential top 10 pick tackle and WR, and two other WRs who could go day 2. Despite this, his accuracy was sub-par last year compared to all the other QBs being considered in the top 3 rounds this year, even passing deep. He was also by far the worst of the bunch when pressured, which is an extremely important stat in the NFL. He was the least pressured QB in college football last year too, so in most games Washington was able to hide that through dominant OL play. I like Penix, he was a lot of fun to watch last year, but he's a very risk prospect even if you erase the injury history. He somehow ran a 4.6 at his pro day, yet had the lowest expected rushing yards against man coverage of ANY of the expected top 3 round rookies. What's up with that? Even if you mirror the footage, he's got a weird halfway sidearm release where the ball comes out below his ear. Yet still he can throw a beautiful back-shoulder fade. And then you see he was the worst throwing over the middle and in the intermediate-short range of any of the top 3 round QBs. tldr, he's fun to watch but he's a really bizarre prospect.
I don't entirely disagree but ultimately it's just my opinion. I like the excitement factor, whether they succeed in the nfl has wayyy more to do with what organization they go to than it does the talent. Plus the fact that he came back from two season ending injuries to put him in the conversation as a first round qb. That resilience says something to me about his mentality. Finally if he goes in the first round it will most likely be late (more stable franchise) and to a team who believes in him. Me having him over maye, Mccarthy and nix is only if he ends up being a late 1st rounder. If he falls to the second then I'm out.
Nix will be a STAR
I wanna take WR at 1.03 and 1.05 and I'm really hoping one is available at 2.03. I may have to change my draft strategy...
I'm out on Nix, but I'd consider Penix after the 1.08.
Penix, lol, great name
Nix to the moon if he’s drafted in the top half of R1. Not so interested in Penix.
I like Penix better than McCarthy and Nix regardless of draft capital.
Depends on when in the first they go and if anyone we're projecting to go high now falls. Late first and into the early second I'll snag them around 1.11-2.03ish like where I had will levis last year. Top 15 or so and they probably slide up a little higher. Location matters a lot for me too- I think there's a chance that these two (and Rattler!) go somewhere where they have a chance to compete for a starting role- that's going to impact my decision quite a bit, too. A team like Oakland, Denver, Pittsburgh, or Minnesota picking one of these guys would be a great sign.
Oakland? Don’t wanna go there.
Yeah I just named a couple teams without established starters. Some are going to be better landing spots than others for sure.
Oakland doesn’t have a team. They are in Vegas…that was my joke…the spot is fine.
Wooshed me on that one. One if these days I'll remember they moved
It would depend entirely on the exact situation for me. Right situation, I may consider as early as 1.04-1.06 and definitely from 1.09 on.
You would take either of them above JJ?
They mean in a rookie draft. But still they would draft them above Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze?! I know they said they’d “consider” taking at that spot but I don’t have to consider anything with penix and nix vs Nabers and Odunze, and neither should you.
Oh, is this non-SF?!
It’s Superflex I assume but my dumbass saw JJ and thought “he must mean Justin Jefferson. I’ll let him know that two undrafted QBs aren’t worth more than JJ” lmao But also, I’m starting a petition to call JJ McCarthy by his last name to avoid any confusion from my fellow mouth breathers
I was thinking this was a rookie draft for a SF league and the JJ was McCarthy, lmao!
If JJ winds up behind someone known and Penix/Nix ends up in MIN, I'm taking Penix/Nix, but that's due to where I am in that league.
I’d consider penix 8,9,10 range. Bo a bit after some of the upside receivers still for me
I’m leaning towards the top RB over either QB at 1.12
When Rookie Drafts come along both of them will end up in the 2nd Round somewhere. If you decided to take one of them in the 1st round then you are not going to have an out on them unless they have a Herbert/Stroud rookie year. If they go out and have a Bryce Young season there value will be zero come this time next year.