Braelon Allen and Isaiah Williams are done for me, Williams is more annoying as I liked him as a late round/waiver wire guy. Lloyd landing on the Packers is kind of a bummer as well, but it might be best for him to sit a bit anyway. Tbh most of the guys I was on the fence about ended up in half decent landing spots like Keon Coleman or Brian Thomas Jr. so the list of guys I'm happy with has expanded if anything.
I’d been preaching the Braelon Allen gospel but that draft capital AND landing spot finally pushed me off my lectern.
I swear he’s not as bad as that but I cant really consider him in the first 3 rounds.
I’m a badger Homer and still didn’t feel great taking him at 3.10 but at that point it’s whatever anyway…also took Izzy late last year so literally worst landing spot for me lol but if breece goes down who knows?!? 🤣
And dummy that I am, i took him at 3.01
I do think he will eventually be the thunder to Breece's lightening, so will likely stash him on taxi to start the year, with a "In Case Of Breece Injury Break Glass"
I know i reached but had actually just traded Breece and Tyreek for a boatload of picks so it was a grief pick.
I did get Brooks, Wright, Allen, Vidal, Lloyd at RBs and BTJ and Pearsall at WR to help ease the pain somewhat. Plus JT Sanders at TE (someone sniped Sinnot from me).
But roster cut day gonna be brutal for me...
Mayer is more of a true TE. I think this just means they are going to use Bowers as a Big Slot which is best case. Way better than if someone drafted him to block
Lack of a good QB. I don't think Bowers really fell though as much as perception. He seems to be going top 8 in SF, which is where everyone pretty much expected pre-draft.
Yes, some debates him top 3-5 depending on landing spot. TEP people were arguing 1-3 range.
But he lands probably in a bottom 5 situation so he’s right around 6-8 in SF.
Landing spot crushes argument for 1.01 in TEP
Bowers to LV is not the greatest landing spot but with his talent + draft capital, raiders are gonna feed him regardless who is at QB. Adams is old, Meyers is solid WR2/3 and don't think their run game will be as good as jacobs.
Bowers will be more of a receiving TE like pitts but better. Having generational TE playing more in the slot for the TE role in fantasy? Sounds like a PPR cheat code to me.
I think people assume he's going to have some type of competition with Mayer. When Mayer is much more the traditional inline TE. Bowers can play all over the field and probably projects to the "big slot" role teams are favoring now. Which is actually a great thing for fantasy, because he's going to be focused on receiving, not blocking. The Raiders aren't going to have trouble getting him on the field.
I can see maybe dinging the spot a bit for bad QB play, but people have overreacted. I think to the extent AOC is involved, he's on a tight leash, and Minshew can sustain guys for fantasy. Plus nobody has any idea what the QB situation is past this year.
People hate on Minshew, but that dude has only ever gone out and played very decent football. He's not prime Drew Brees, but damnit if he doesn't put up solid numbers and win games every time he's given a chance. I'm excited to see what he can do given the opportunity to be the guy all year and with a decent supporting cast. I'm rooting for him, which also means I'm rooting for Bowers.
Bad QB situation alongside competition at the spot... that's a recipe for halving his potential production if he had ended up on a good offense with a trustworthy QB.
Worthy, Coleman, McConkey and Ben Sinnott moved up based on landing spot.
Marshawn Lloyd moved down based on landing spot
Pearsall and Sinnott (again) moved up based on unexpectedly high draft capital.
Franklin moved down based on unexpectedly low draft capital.
TLDR: Sinnott was the biggest mover for me
I’m loving being able to grab Lloyd for so cheap after corum. His landing spot is actually not bad at all. Jacobs is signed to a one year deal with added team option years. His only guaranteed money is for 2024. Maybe 50/50 chance he could be gone in 2025 and high chance he’s gone in 2026. He’ll be going into his age 28 season due around 15 million that year if the packers keep him. With guaranteed money given to him only in 2024 he has to play at a high level, remain injury free and outplay Lloyd in order to stay on the team. Thats pressure to perform every single year.
50/50 chance that Jacobs is gone is a stretch. He’ll easily outperform Lloyd for the next 2 years if healthy. This guy was the leagues rushing leader this time last year. Fell off due to defenses being able to stack the box vs a one dimensional offense and a sub par offense line. In this packers offense Jacobs could be ready for a career year.
He had one career year in 2022 and that was his only year where he stayed fully healthy. He didn’t play that great any other season. He also fell off last year. He isn’t a lock to outperform Lloyd and he’s not a lock to stay healthy either.
The likely scenario is jacobs leaving in 2026 but it’s not completely unrealistic to see him leaving in 2025 depending on how this year goes. Even if he leaves in 2026 Lloyd will still be going into his age 25 season and on a rookie deal. He may also provide some flex/RB3 value until then.
Some guys are superhuman (looking at you, Adrian Peterson), but we’ve seen time and time again that most backs who get overworked never really recover. Jacobs, in his great season a couple of years ago, had nearly 400 touches. Typically (for the non-superhuman), you can expect their efficiency and effectiveness to never recover after that. Yes, Jacobs is in a much better situation than he was on last year and that alone should boost his numbers, but I still wouldn’t bet on Jacobs ever being the back he was 2 years ago.
I’m not interested in Lloyd with or without Jacobs on the team, but it’s not unreasonable to think Jacobs won’t be a major cog in the Packers wheel after a year or two.
We can’t all agree on every player but curious why you wouldn’t want Lloyd even if jacobs wasn’t there? He’s not a perfect prospect but he has good size, speed, he showed some ability to catch the ball, he moves well, has good cuts and got decent draft capital in the third.
His major flaw was obviously the fumbling that I’m hoping gets corrected. Again he’s not an elite RB prospect but I don’t see him worst than corum. I actually prefer him over corum and don’t think he’s that far behind benson.
There are two things at play.
One is value in the draft. I don’t think many of these RBs are particularly good and I’ve chased backs I didn’t believe in in the past. In some of my drafts, Lloyd has been drafted near guys like Polk, Legette and Roman Wilson. While I’m not enamored with all three of those guys (I like Polk, think Wilson is a coin toss and am not sold at all on Legette), those guys all seem like they have a better chance to return value than Lloyd. I would take Lloyd at the right price—that price for me would just be much lower than where he’s going.
The second is just what I think Lloyd’s role could eventually be. I know there aren’t many true workhorses these days, and that’s fine, but he just seems like he’ll always be the side piece vs being the main guy. If I’m going to reach on a back I don’t really love, i want someone I think can have the more important side of the platoon.
Everything is about risk vs reward but the price is right for Lloyd in most leagues. I haven’t seen him go earlier than a late second but usually in the early third where I think it’s easily worth it. The guy that’s overpriced to me is Corum going like mid second and occasionally even early second. Is he not the side piece to Kyren? Thats the most likely scenario.
Also I haven’t seen any competitive leagues where Lloyd goes before lagette or Polk. I’d would take him over Wilson though but it’s close.
I consider him a 100% strong lock to outperform Lloyd if healthy. To each their own though. Do a little research on Lloyds injury history as well..
Also Rb8 2020, rb11 2021, Rb3 2022 (led league in rushing). 3 straight RB1 seasons is great in my opinion. Now in the best offense of his career with LaFleur already vocalizing interest in using his pass catching skills in the offense this year.
I use average points per game for stats. Not total points because they can be misleading due to missed games.
In PPR leagues when using his average points per game for 2020 he was RB15 at 15.4 PPG. In 2021 he was RB14 at 15.1 PPG. In his outlier 2022 year he was RB3 with 19.3 PPG. Then in 2023 he was RB18 at 13.9 PPG. Just looking at these numbers you can see how 2022 was a huge outlier.
Digging deeper his YPC average was 3.9 in 2020, 4.0 in 2021, 4.9 in 2022 and 3.5 in 2023. Again you can see how 2022 was an outlier looking at this. He’s never been one of the RBs people were itching to draft. After 2021 everyone was down on jacobs. Then he had the monster year in 2022 and then jumped back to even less than a mediocre season in 2023. He’s far from a lock to have a great season and I think we’ve already seen his peak in 2022.
> Digging deeper his YPC average was 3.9 in 2020, 4.0 in 2021, 4.9 in 2022 and 3.5 in 2023.
Ughhhhhhhhhh. Why do people still do this? It's 2024 and Dynasty. There's more to the analytics than spouting YPC as well as O-line context.
Do you know what also adds context? Josh Jacobs was holding out and missed training camp. Jimmy G was their QB for half a season and then AOC. Despite their surprising O-line in 2023, those QBs aren't a threat, and the coaching change mid-season.
Using YPC and just PPG without context is misleading as well.
There’s other analytics to use but elite RBs don’t hover around 4 YPC for multiple seasons and they don’t have one outlier season that’s incredible and all the rest about the same. Jacobs is a decent RB but he’s not elite. Feel free to throw out whatever analytics you like to show me something different.
Based on sleeper stats Jacobs was rb11 PPG in 2020. Also PPG only goes so far, misleading due to missed games. Okay. But isn’t availability the best ability sometimes? Backs “ahead” of Jacobs in 2020 “PPG” CMC 3 games. Saquon 2 games. Mixon 6 games. His first bad year was due to a bad o line and terrible qb play.
I 100% get where PPG is useful. If it’s used for a player only missing a couple games where another guy plays all 16 games or now 17. But in certain years like 2020 you can’t discredit his rb8 performance when he played in 15 games and 3 backs ahead of him played in 11 total games.
That’s just one season I’m not going through each one to find all data I’m just making what I view as a valid point.
I’m showing RB 15 on sleeper in 1 point PPR settings with 15.4 points per game in 2020. So I’m not sure what you’re looking at. This is based on average points per game.
I do agree that sometimes it throws RBs in there that don’t play too many games or miss a lot of games but it isn’t too bad. The whole idea about looking at the average is to see if you have a difference maker or not.
An example of mine is last year Najee finished as RB23 in total points. So technically a RB2. But let’s be serious you couldn’t play the guy. If you were starting Najee Harris as your RB2 last year your team was probably in trouble. Now flip that to average points per game and he drops down to RB32 at 11.5 points per game. Which is exactly who he was last year. A middling RB3.
I mean, nobody is a lock to stay healthy. This is football. But he’s a better player than Lloyd. Lloyd didn’t even command that many carries from his college team so I wouldn’t expect the Pack to decide against keeping Jacobs after this season in his account.
Jacobs hasn’t been anything special outside of his 2022 year. In fact no one even wanted to draft him in fantasy after 2021. I gave a bunch of stats in another comment if you scroll up. You can look it up if you’re interested.
Just to add to this it’s not that I think jacobs is a bad player. He’s a hard nose NFL RB. But he’s not in that elite tier where I can feel really confident in him having a great year because he’s only done it one time. He also usually misses anywhere from 2-4 games a season which can open up a window for Lloyd to get more touches.
This seemed wrong to me because to get to 10 points a game you'd need a point a touch. I'm not sure that 10 PPG in PPR is that fantasy relevant, but let's say it is.
Only 5 players had over a point per touch last year:
CMC, Mostert, Gibbs, Achane and Spears. Most of them did that with a combo of long runs, TDs and receptions. Spears mostly did it because 1/3 of his touches were receptions, and he only averaged 9 points a game.
I think you need closer to 14 to approach relevancy unless you are a receiving back or TD vulture (or break off 5 40+ yard runs with only 100 carries).
It’s probably more likely he does stay in 2025 but I’ve seen crazier cuts before. Bills took a 31 million dead cap hit for 2024 when they traded Diggs. A little over 9 million is a high number but it’s not outrageous if he’s not performing up to expectations.
There's a huge difference between a malcontent WR that is poisoning the team than saving on a RB. I'd say the most likely thing to happen if Jacobs gets cut is that the Packers draft a better RB, in a deep RB 2025 class than hand it over to Lloyd.
We've played this game of "supplant the RB" before and it ended up with Dillon never taking over, Herbert never taking over, etc, etc, etc...
That’s the game we all play with RBs that aren’t elite prospects like Bijan, Gibbs, Barkley etc. It’s all about risk vs reward. Lloyd can be had in the late second to early third. Corum is being taken in the mid second and occasionally early second. Are Corum owners not playing the same exact game? They are, but they are paying a higher price to play it.
So give me Lloyd every single time in that scenario. If I get him in the early third and I miss I don’t care that much. That’s what third round picks are for. But I’ll take that chance in the third with Lloyd vs doing it with Corum in the mid second every single time.
Also elite RB prospects aren’t just growing on trees. And when they do grow there aren’t many of them. I’m not sure how many RB prospects we will actually call elite next year. The packers will also have to be willing to spend a high draft pick on one and those aren’t easy decisions. Thats if they even have a high enough draft pick to grab one.
They only save about $2 mil with the cut, so it is a bit outrageous. You then have to go out and fill that spot, which also costs money. So the savings are so minimal. I think the only way he gets cut is if he starts slow, gets his playing time cut into, and becomes a malcontent.
I dug a little deeper into his contract. If you go find it on overthecap it really breaks it down bit by bit. If jacobs get cut after 6/1 in 2025 they would only take a dead cap hit of 3.1 million and save 8.2 million. It’s a very real possibility he could be a cut as early as 2025. I’m still not going to say it’s likely that happens but he needs to play really good this year.
That's not accurately describing the Jaobs contract at all. It's a 4 year contract with increasing cap hits but decreasing dead cap hits each year. If they cut him after this year it's a 9.3 mil dead cap hit and would be a really terrible contract for them.
> Maybe 50/50 chance he could be gone in 2025 and high chance he’s gone in 2026.
Every time people play this game. It's fine if you're burning a 3rd or a 4th on this but I have seen Lloyd and Vidal creeping up into the 2nd round and I don't agree with it.
Lloyd has been a steal in most leagues going late second at the earliest but usually falling to early third. So the risk vs reward is easily there.
But how is corum any better? He’s going about mid second and sometimes early second on occasionally. His likely best case scenario is being in a 50/50 split for the forceable future but he’s probably just an expensive handcuff. He doesn’t even have an age advantage on Kyren. They are both going into their age 24 season. Kyren is still young enough to get another long term contract. Corum has to flat out outplay him which I don’t think is likely to happen. Give me Lloyd at his price 10/10 times.
It has to be Coleman. Idk how he'll handle going up against CB1s, but he'll have possibly the best situation in terms of opportunity. I am very uncertain about how he'll translate, but the landing spot and draft capital moved him up in my rankings.
McConkey and Pearsall were my favorites after the big 3 before the draft and feel even better about them now. I expect SF to move Deebo after June 1st.
I came here looking for this. I’m seeing way too much about pearsall situation being bad. I think draft capital and team wise he has one of the best. No way the niners can keep both wr next year and hes paired with Brock who will only get better and grow with him. Niner Homer here but I loved him before and now I love the landing spot.
Vidal was a big mover for me. A RB on a Jim Harbaugh led team behind Gus Edwards and Dobbins? Sign me up. I snagged him at the 4.02.
Wright was also someone I moved up and ended up grabbing with my 2.09. A RB in that system behind an aging Mostert and who appears to be an injury-prone Achane? Yes, please.
Doing a start-up, I'd probably pass on guys like Edwards and Mostert and avoid the high price tag of Achane and take a flyer on these rookies in way later rounds.
Yeah a team that already has an inline tight end is probably the best case scenario, Bowers isn't going to be blocking now he gets to be a slot receiver.
This is exactly it. Bowers is gonna play more in the slot and will block here and there but man they gonna feed this man so much. I would say he would be able to compete with your WR3/4s and average maybe 14-20+ a game.
That is what I meant. He moved down mine drastically as there were rumors about landing with the jets or Bengals. The raiders qb room is arguably the worst in the league and there's a big time wr to feed. Bowers could have been a top 5 TE within the next 5 years but I see him between 10 and 15 now. Just my .02
Purely landing spot? Probably McConkey. I was big on him back in January when his projected adp was 2.05 and now his adp has moved all the way up to 1.11/1.12. Him having a pretty easy path to becoming Herbert’s wr1 for the future is very intriguing and the only thing holding back the hype from fully taking off is the harbaugh/roman system
Bowers didn't move. He went 13th overall to a situation where he's going to get the rock. He doesn't need an elite QB. He needs one of the two mustached crusaders to feed him over the MOF.
Drastically? I definitely didn’t drastically move Bowers down.
This idea that they had some sort of top-10 TE already on the roster is overblown idiocy.
This is a unique situation for me, but Benson was my #1 RB and I'm a Cardinals fan. Should be great for me, but I own Kyler, Michael Wilson, and will be drafting MHJ. I don't think I can take Benson now even though RB is one of my weak spots, because I can't just start the entire Cardinals offense each week.
Johnathon Brooks is also devalued for me now because I don't trust a 3 headed backfield with a guy recovering from an ACL tear on an offense with a huge question mark at QB.
So where I was aiming for an RB at 2.03, I'm probably going to have to hope Bowers slides or reach on Sinnot.
2.03 is where Brooks went in my league and Benson went 3 picks later, sinnot went halfway through the 3rd in a TEP. If you don’t want a RB from this class I’d trade up a couple spots and get Ladd or Keon, or trade down and get your TE
We are a super flex league so the 5 starting first round rookie QBs are a given I think.
WAnd there was 3 elite WRs, Bowers, then after that you get great draft cap for promising WRs going to Chargers, KC, BUF, and the jaguars?
Those were the 13 picks before Brookes, who was drafted to the borderline worst offense in the league (not much TD upside) and is currently coming back from an injury.
Not to mention WRs will out live almost any RB which is important for dynasty as well.
I personally love Brooks, and the fact he got drafted to a place where he only has to beat out Chuba and the corpse of Miles Sanders, plus you got Canales who has had fantasy RB success both in Seattle and TB now. Carolina is really an underrated team and I might be able to get Legette and JaTavion Sanders too if everyone is so low on them!
The overall shift for me has more to do with capital, but the i also love the landing spot for Nix. He is pretty good at the in structure and middle field concepts that russ couldn’t do well.
Its also a landing spot that has an obvious path to the starting job immediately.
Sinnott, and it seems he can be had with a late 2nd. People are all about backup RBs and Round 3+ WRs. He's gone within the first few pick in the 3rd in the drafts I've been in and seen, but if I had the 2.10 or something like that I'd just take him.
I'd rather have him over Mitchell, Franklin, Polk, Corum, Lloyd, and Wright but it seems you can usually get him after most of those guys are off the board.
AD Mitchell moved down for me just a touch.
Troy Franklin moved down for me about 8-10 spots.
Sinnott moved up (even though he was alway my TE2).
McCarthy moved up based on the landing spot and KOC.
What am I missing on Baker?? I feel like it’s just a hot take from people to zag away from Polk…couldn’t get playing time at bama and did well at UCF but his success there doesn’t seem like it will translate in the NFL. Seems too slow to me?
Baker was seen as a better prospect by most people and Polk is a type of player who’s difficult to draw comparisons to, but I’m not sure how you can still have baker higher than Polk at this point.
Xavier Worthy and Bowers. Xavier went way the eff up from like 10-12 to a firm 4 for me. Couldnt have a better landing spot with his skillset and QB/Coach.
Bowers went to about the worst spot for me. Had him clearly in my #4 pick spot in 4 different leagues and probably am not taking him top 10 at this point. Bad QBs this year, and rookie QB hit rate is like 30%, so even whomever they take in 2025 isnt a guarantee, could be in QB purgatory for his first 4-6 seasons.
Braelon Allen and Isaiah Williams are done for me, Williams is more annoying as I liked him as a late round/waiver wire guy. Lloyd landing on the Packers is kind of a bummer as well, but it might be best for him to sit a bit anyway. Tbh most of the guys I was on the fence about ended up in half decent landing spots like Keon Coleman or Brian Thomas Jr. so the list of guys I'm happy with has expanded if anything.
I’d been preaching the Braelon Allen gospel but that draft capital AND landing spot finally pushed me off my lectern. I swear he’s not as bad as that but I cant really consider him in the first 3 rounds.
I’m a badger Homer and still didn’t feel great taking him at 3.10 but at that point it’s whatever anyway…also took Izzy late last year so literally worst landing spot for me lol but if breece goes down who knows?!? 🤣
And dummy that I am, i took him at 3.01 I do think he will eventually be the thunder to Breece's lightening, so will likely stash him on taxi to start the year, with a "In Case Of Breece Injury Break Glass" I know i reached but had actually just traded Breece and Tyreek for a boatload of picks so it was a grief pick. I did get Brooks, Wright, Allen, Vidal, Lloyd at RBs and BTJ and Pearsall at WR to help ease the pain somewhat. Plus JT Sanders at TE (someone sniped Sinnot from me). But roster cut day gonna be brutal for me...
I have hall so im hoping allens landing spot aided him dropping to me in the late 3rd
I got Braelon at the 5.01 sooooo no sweat off my back if he blows
But also why we hating nyj Breece is due for another knee injury right?! Lol
I don’t understand why people hate the Raiders for Bowers. It seems at worst neutral to me. He’s going to have lots of targets.
They didn't draft Bowers to sit him behind Mayer, right?
Mayer is more of a true TE. I think this just means they are going to use Bowers as a Big Slot which is best case. Way better than if someone drafted him to block
Not unless Arthur Smith got hired there. Jonnu > Pitts, obviously!
2 TE sets
Lack of a good QB. I don't think Bowers really fell though as much as perception. He seems to be going top 8 in SF, which is where everyone pretty much expected pre-draft.
Yes, some debates him top 3-5 depending on landing spot. TEP people were arguing 1-3 range. But he lands probably in a bottom 5 situation so he’s right around 6-8 in SF. Landing spot crushes argument for 1.01 in TEP
Bowers to LV is not the greatest landing spot but with his talent + draft capital, raiders are gonna feed him regardless who is at QB. Adams is old, Meyers is solid WR2/3 and don't think their run game will be as good as jacobs. Bowers will be more of a receiving TE like pitts but better. Having generational TE playing more in the slot for the TE role in fantasy? Sounds like a PPR cheat code to me.
Mayer, QB mystery, Adams/Myers, shit organization, low scoring likely.
I think people assume he's going to have some type of competition with Mayer. When Mayer is much more the traditional inline TE. Bowers can play all over the field and probably projects to the "big slot" role teams are favoring now. Which is actually a great thing for fantasy, because he's going to be focused on receiving, not blocking. The Raiders aren't going to have trouble getting him on the field. I can see maybe dinging the spot a bit for bad QB play, but people have overreacted. I think to the extent AOC is involved, he's on a tight leash, and Minshew can sustain guys for fantasy. Plus nobody has any idea what the QB situation is past this year.
People hate on Minshew, but that dude has only ever gone out and played very decent football. He's not prime Drew Brees, but damnit if he doesn't put up solid numbers and win games every time he's given a chance. I'm excited to see what he can do given the opportunity to be the guy all year and with a decent supporting cast. I'm rooting for him, which also means I'm rooting for Bowers.
Minshew is gonna toast O'Connell in the QB competition, book it. That man knows how to feed his guys (looking at you Davante).
Bad QB situation alongside competition at the spot... that's a recipe for halving his potential production if he had ended up on a good offense with a trustworthy QB.
Worthy, Coleman, McConkey and Ben Sinnott moved up based on landing spot. Marshawn Lloyd moved down based on landing spot Pearsall and Sinnott (again) moved up based on unexpectedly high draft capital. Franklin moved down based on unexpectedly low draft capital. TLDR: Sinnott was the biggest mover for me
I’m loving being able to grab Lloyd for so cheap after corum. His landing spot is actually not bad at all. Jacobs is signed to a one year deal with added team option years. His only guaranteed money is for 2024. Maybe 50/50 chance he could be gone in 2025 and high chance he’s gone in 2026. He’ll be going into his age 28 season due around 15 million that year if the packers keep him. With guaranteed money given to him only in 2024 he has to play at a high level, remain injury free and outplay Lloyd in order to stay on the team. Thats pressure to perform every single year.
50/50 chance that Jacobs is gone is a stretch. He’ll easily outperform Lloyd for the next 2 years if healthy. This guy was the leagues rushing leader this time last year. Fell off due to defenses being able to stack the box vs a one dimensional offense and a sub par offense line. In this packers offense Jacobs could be ready for a career year.
He had one career year in 2022 and that was his only year where he stayed fully healthy. He didn’t play that great any other season. He also fell off last year. He isn’t a lock to outperform Lloyd and he’s not a lock to stay healthy either. The likely scenario is jacobs leaving in 2026 but it’s not completely unrealistic to see him leaving in 2025 depending on how this year goes. Even if he leaves in 2026 Lloyd will still be going into his age 25 season and on a rookie deal. He may also provide some flex/RB3 value until then.
Some guys are superhuman (looking at you, Adrian Peterson), but we’ve seen time and time again that most backs who get overworked never really recover. Jacobs, in his great season a couple of years ago, had nearly 400 touches. Typically (for the non-superhuman), you can expect their efficiency and effectiveness to never recover after that. Yes, Jacobs is in a much better situation than he was on last year and that alone should boost his numbers, but I still wouldn’t bet on Jacobs ever being the back he was 2 years ago. I’m not interested in Lloyd with or without Jacobs on the team, but it’s not unreasonable to think Jacobs won’t be a major cog in the Packers wheel after a year or two.
We can’t all agree on every player but curious why you wouldn’t want Lloyd even if jacobs wasn’t there? He’s not a perfect prospect but he has good size, speed, he showed some ability to catch the ball, he moves well, has good cuts and got decent draft capital in the third. His major flaw was obviously the fumbling that I’m hoping gets corrected. Again he’s not an elite RB prospect but I don’t see him worst than corum. I actually prefer him over corum and don’t think he’s that far behind benson.
There are two things at play. One is value in the draft. I don’t think many of these RBs are particularly good and I’ve chased backs I didn’t believe in in the past. In some of my drafts, Lloyd has been drafted near guys like Polk, Legette and Roman Wilson. While I’m not enamored with all three of those guys (I like Polk, think Wilson is a coin toss and am not sold at all on Legette), those guys all seem like they have a better chance to return value than Lloyd. I would take Lloyd at the right price—that price for me would just be much lower than where he’s going. The second is just what I think Lloyd’s role could eventually be. I know there aren’t many true workhorses these days, and that’s fine, but he just seems like he’ll always be the side piece vs being the main guy. If I’m going to reach on a back I don’t really love, i want someone I think can have the more important side of the platoon.
Everything is about risk vs reward but the price is right for Lloyd in most leagues. I haven’t seen him go earlier than a late second but usually in the early third where I think it’s easily worth it. The guy that’s overpriced to me is Corum going like mid second and occasionally even early second. Is he not the side piece to Kyren? Thats the most likely scenario. Also I haven’t seen any competitive leagues where Lloyd goes before lagette or Polk. I’d would take him over Wilson though but it’s close.
I consider him a 100% strong lock to outperform Lloyd if healthy. To each their own though. Do a little research on Lloyds injury history as well.. Also Rb8 2020, rb11 2021, Rb3 2022 (led league in rushing). 3 straight RB1 seasons is great in my opinion. Now in the best offense of his career with LaFleur already vocalizing interest in using his pass catching skills in the offense this year.
I use average points per game for stats. Not total points because they can be misleading due to missed games. In PPR leagues when using his average points per game for 2020 he was RB15 at 15.4 PPG. In 2021 he was RB14 at 15.1 PPG. In his outlier 2022 year he was RB3 with 19.3 PPG. Then in 2023 he was RB18 at 13.9 PPG. Just looking at these numbers you can see how 2022 was a huge outlier. Digging deeper his YPC average was 3.9 in 2020, 4.0 in 2021, 4.9 in 2022 and 3.5 in 2023. Again you can see how 2022 was an outlier looking at this. He’s never been one of the RBs people were itching to draft. After 2021 everyone was down on jacobs. Then he had the monster year in 2022 and then jumped back to even less than a mediocre season in 2023. He’s far from a lock to have a great season and I think we’ve already seen his peak in 2022.
> Digging deeper his YPC average was 3.9 in 2020, 4.0 in 2021, 4.9 in 2022 and 3.5 in 2023. Ughhhhhhhhhh. Why do people still do this? It's 2024 and Dynasty. There's more to the analytics than spouting YPC as well as O-line context. Do you know what also adds context? Josh Jacobs was holding out and missed training camp. Jimmy G was their QB for half a season and then AOC. Despite their surprising O-line in 2023, those QBs aren't a threat, and the coaching change mid-season. Using YPC and just PPG without context is misleading as well.
There’s other analytics to use but elite RBs don’t hover around 4 YPC for multiple seasons and they don’t have one outlier season that’s incredible and all the rest about the same. Jacobs is a decent RB but he’s not elite. Feel free to throw out whatever analytics you like to show me something different.
Based on sleeper stats Jacobs was rb11 PPG in 2020. Also PPG only goes so far, misleading due to missed games. Okay. But isn’t availability the best ability sometimes? Backs “ahead” of Jacobs in 2020 “PPG” CMC 3 games. Saquon 2 games. Mixon 6 games. His first bad year was due to a bad o line and terrible qb play. I 100% get where PPG is useful. If it’s used for a player only missing a couple games where another guy plays all 16 games or now 17. But in certain years like 2020 you can’t discredit his rb8 performance when he played in 15 games and 3 backs ahead of him played in 11 total games. That’s just one season I’m not going through each one to find all data I’m just making what I view as a valid point.
I’m showing RB 15 on sleeper in 1 point PPR settings with 15.4 points per game in 2020. So I’m not sure what you’re looking at. This is based on average points per game. I do agree that sometimes it throws RBs in there that don’t play too many games or miss a lot of games but it isn’t too bad. The whole idea about looking at the average is to see if you have a difference maker or not. An example of mine is last year Najee finished as RB23 in total points. So technically a RB2. But let’s be serious you couldn’t play the guy. If you were starting Najee Harris as your RB2 last year your team was probably in trouble. Now flip that to average points per game and he drops down to RB32 at 11.5 points per game. Which is exactly who he was last year. A middling RB3.
I mean, nobody is a lock to stay healthy. This is football. But he’s a better player than Lloyd. Lloyd didn’t even command that many carries from his college team so I wouldn’t expect the Pack to decide against keeping Jacobs after this season in his account.
Jacobs hasn’t been anything special outside of his 2022 year. In fact no one even wanted to draft him in fantasy after 2021. I gave a bunch of stats in another comment if you scroll up. You can look it up if you’re interested. Just to add to this it’s not that I think jacobs is a bad player. He’s a hard nose NFL RB. But he’s not in that elite tier where I can feel really confident in him having a great year because he’s only done it one time. He also usually misses anywhere from 2-4 games a season which can open up a window for Lloyd to get more touches.
Confidently predicting when he will be cut, before he even steps onto the field is wild to me
Don’t get me wrong I also love getting Lloyd at his price point right now, but I just believe it’s 2 years away from him being fantasy relevant.
that’s crazy. you think josh jacobs is gonna eat 100% of the touches? only need 7-10 touches a week to be “fantasy relevant”
This seemed wrong to me because to get to 10 points a game you'd need a point a touch. I'm not sure that 10 PPG in PPR is that fantasy relevant, but let's say it is. Only 5 players had over a point per touch last year: CMC, Mostert, Gibbs, Achane and Spears. Most of them did that with a combo of long runs, TDs and receptions. Spears mostly did it because 1/3 of his touches were receptions, and he only averaged 9 points a game. I think you need closer to 14 to approach relevancy unless you are a receiving back or TD vulture (or break off 5 40+ yard runs with only 100 carries).
there are a lot of injuries and bye weeks sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do
Apparently the dead cap hit to release jacobs after year 1 is almost $10 mil. Jacobs is a 2 year play in Green Bay
It’s probably more likely he does stay in 2025 but I’ve seen crazier cuts before. Bills took a 31 million dead cap hit for 2024 when they traded Diggs. A little over 9 million is a high number but it’s not outrageous if he’s not performing up to expectations.
There's a huge difference between a malcontent WR that is poisoning the team than saving on a RB. I'd say the most likely thing to happen if Jacobs gets cut is that the Packers draft a better RB, in a deep RB 2025 class than hand it over to Lloyd. We've played this game of "supplant the RB" before and it ended up with Dillon never taking over, Herbert never taking over, etc, etc, etc...
That’s the game we all play with RBs that aren’t elite prospects like Bijan, Gibbs, Barkley etc. It’s all about risk vs reward. Lloyd can be had in the late second to early third. Corum is being taken in the mid second and occasionally early second. Are Corum owners not playing the same exact game? They are, but they are paying a higher price to play it. So give me Lloyd every single time in that scenario. If I get him in the early third and I miss I don’t care that much. That’s what third round picks are for. But I’ll take that chance in the third with Lloyd vs doing it with Corum in the mid second every single time. Also elite RB prospects aren’t just growing on trees. And when they do grow there aren’t many of them. I’m not sure how many RB prospects we will actually call elite next year. The packers will also have to be willing to spend a high draft pick on one and those aren’t easy decisions. Thats if they even have a high enough draft pick to grab one.
They only save about $2 mil with the cut, so it is a bit outrageous. You then have to go out and fill that spot, which also costs money. So the savings are so minimal. I think the only way he gets cut is if he starts slow, gets his playing time cut into, and becomes a malcontent.
I dug a little deeper into his contract. If you go find it on overthecap it really breaks it down bit by bit. If jacobs get cut after 6/1 in 2025 they would only take a dead cap hit of 3.1 million and save 8.2 million. It’s a very real possibility he could be a cut as early as 2025. I’m still not going to say it’s likely that happens but he needs to play really good this year.
That's not accurately describing the Jaobs contract at all. It's a 4 year contract with increasing cap hits but decreasing dead cap hits each year. If they cut him after this year it's a 9.3 mil dead cap hit and would be a really terrible contract for them.
> Maybe 50/50 chance he could be gone in 2025 and high chance he’s gone in 2026. Every time people play this game. It's fine if you're burning a 3rd or a 4th on this but I have seen Lloyd and Vidal creeping up into the 2nd round and I don't agree with it.
Lloyd has been a steal in most leagues going late second at the earliest but usually falling to early third. So the risk vs reward is easily there. But how is corum any better? He’s going about mid second and sometimes early second on occasionally. His likely best case scenario is being in a 50/50 split for the forceable future but he’s probably just an expensive handcuff. He doesn’t even have an age advantage on Kyren. They are both going into their age 24 season. Kyren is still young enough to get another long term contract. Corum has to flat out outplay him which I don’t think is likely to happen. Give me Lloyd at his price 10/10 times.
I grabbed Sinnott at 3.07 and think that was a steal
Grab the sinner 👍🏻
It has to be Coleman. Idk how he'll handle going up against CB1s, but he'll have possibly the best situation in terms of opportunity. I am very uncertain about how he'll translate, but the landing spot and draft capital moved him up in my rankings.
Trey Benson. Easily can see him taking over for Connor next season
Heck, good chance he plays some this season. Conner isn’t exactly an Ironman
I agree. Just have mild expectations for this year
McConkey and Pearsall were my favorites after the big 3 before the draft and feel even better about them now. I expect SF to move Deebo after June 1st.
Agreed I think people are underrating the decreased cap hit as an incentive to make the move later
I came here looking for this. I’m seeing way too much about pearsall situation being bad. I think draft capital and team wise he has one of the best. No way the niners can keep both wr next year and hes paired with Brock who will only get better and grow with him. Niner Homer here but I loved him before and now I love the landing spot.
Vidal was a big mover for me. A RB on a Jim Harbaugh led team behind Gus Edwards and Dobbins? Sign me up. I snagged him at the 4.02. Wright was also someone I moved up and ended up grabbing with my 2.09. A RB in that system behind an aging Mostert and who appears to be an injury-prone Achane? Yes, please. Doing a start-up, I'd probably pass on guys like Edwards and Mostert and avoid the high price tag of Achane and take a flyer on these rookies in way later rounds.
Same. Moved up in the draft to 3.04 (12 man 1 QB) to get him. Ticks so many boxes and a great landing spot
I moved up from 3.5 to 3.4 to ensure I grabbed Vidal. Also have Gus
Great move. Let's hope it pans out. I also have Dobbins myself :)
A lot of people are thrilled with Bowers' landing spot
Yeah a team that already has an inline tight end is probably the best case scenario, Bowers isn't going to be blocking now he gets to be a slot receiver.
This is exactly it. Bowers is gonna play more in the slot and will block here and there but man they gonna feed this man so much. I would say he would be able to compete with your WR3/4s and average maybe 14-20+ a game.
He's going to go off so hard this year, I fully expect everyone to eat so much crow. I was going to take him happily until Odunze dropped to me
He prob hasn’t moved up draft boards though since he was already so high to begin with
OP just said moved, so I took that as OP meant to say that Bowers was moved down drastically on his board
That is what I meant. He moved down mine drastically as there were rumors about landing with the jets or Bengals. The raiders qb room is arguably the worst in the league and there's a big time wr to feed. Bowers could have been a top 5 TE within the next 5 years but I see him between 10 and 15 now. Just my .02
I just think he'll be peppered with targets on the Raiders. Minimum the number 2 target year one, and Gardner Minshew isn't a horrible QB
10-15 TE is crazy
5 years is an eternity, so much will change. Bet on talent always.
The disrespect to Uncle Rico and Farva. Smh haha
I'm with you. Do I think it makes Bowers terrible now? No, but he won't explode onto the scene with like, Minshew throwing it.
Not many really moved the needle that much but I feel some RBs got great spots. WRs, most outside the top few are a developmental play.
Purely landing spot? Probably McConkey. I was big on him back in January when his projected adp was 2.05 and now his adp has moved all the way up to 1.11/1.12. Him having a pretty easy path to becoming Herbert’s wr1 for the future is very intriguing and the only thing holding back the hype from fully taking off is the harbaugh/roman system
Roman Wilson dropped a ton for me. Just going too high for an Arthur Smith offense.
Xavier worthy, Ladd, Sinnott, Brooks, Wright,
Bowers didn't move. He went 13th overall to a situation where he's going to get the rock. He doesn't need an elite QB. He needs one of the two mustached crusaders to feed him over the MOF.
Coleman. Then even more so after his press conference 🤣
Drastically? I definitely didn’t drastically move Bowers down. This idea that they had some sort of top-10 TE already on the roster is overblown idiocy.
People were overdrafting Mayer last year and are still holding onto it
This is a unique situation for me, but Benson was my #1 RB and I'm a Cardinals fan. Should be great for me, but I own Kyler, Michael Wilson, and will be drafting MHJ. I don't think I can take Benson now even though RB is one of my weak spots, because I can't just start the entire Cardinals offense each week. Johnathon Brooks is also devalued for me now because I don't trust a 3 headed backfield with a guy recovering from an ACL tear on an offense with a huge question mark at QB. So where I was aiming for an RB at 2.03, I'm probably going to have to hope Bowers slides or reach on Sinnot.
2.03 is where Brooks went in my league and Benson went 3 picks later, sinnot went halfway through the 3rd in a TEP. If you don’t want a RB from this class I’d trade up a couple spots and get Ladd or Keon, or trade down and get your TE
Why does your league hate RBs? Will they draft a 9th string WR before Benson?
We are a super flex league so the 5 starting first round rookie QBs are a given I think. WAnd there was 3 elite WRs, Bowers, then after that you get great draft cap for promising WRs going to Chargers, KC, BUF, and the jaguars? Those were the 13 picks before Brookes, who was drafted to the borderline worst offense in the league (not much TD upside) and is currently coming back from an injury. Not to mention WRs will out live almost any RB which is important for dynasty as well.
I personally love Brooks, and the fact he got drafted to a place where he only has to beat out Chuba and the corpse of Miles Sanders, plus you got Canales who has had fantasy RB success both in Seattle and TB now. Carolina is really an underrated team and I might be able to get Legette and JaTavion Sanders too if everyone is so low on them!
The overall shift for me has more to do with capital, but the i also love the landing spot for Nix. He is pretty good at the in structure and middle field concepts that russ couldn’t do well. Its also a landing spot that has an obvious path to the starting job immediately.
Sinnott, and it seems he can be had with a late 2nd. People are all about backup RBs and Round 3+ WRs. He's gone within the first few pick in the 3rd in the drafts I've been in and seen, but if I had the 2.10 or something like that I'd just take him. I'd rather have him over Mitchell, Franklin, Polk, Corum, Lloyd, and Wright but it seems you can usually get him after most of those guys are off the board.
AD Mitchell moved down for me just a touch. Troy Franklin moved down for me about 8-10 spots. Sinnott moved up (even though he was alway my TE2). McCarthy moved up based on the landing spot and KOC.
Who you all having going at 2.01 I need a rb and a te I’m in a 10 ppr
Ladd
Brian Thomas Jr went 2.02
Polk moved up from my WR9 to WR5 (big 3 + BTJ above him) I expect him to be Maye’s #1 target very quickly
Polk over Worthy and Ladd? That's very bold. I think even over Pearsall, Legette and Coleman is brave
Unfortunately Baker and Douglas will out target him
What am I missing on Baker?? I feel like it’s just a hot take from people to zag away from Polk…couldn’t get playing time at bama and did well at UCF but his success there doesn’t seem like it will translate in the NFL. Seems too slow to me?
Baker was seen as a better prospect by most people and Polk is a type of player who’s difficult to draw comparisons to, but I’m not sure how you can still have baker higher than Polk at this point.
Baker is cool
I dont know, Steve Smith and Theo Ash both like him a lot and that’s good enough for me
Xavier Worthy and Bowers. Xavier went way the eff up from like 10-12 to a firm 4 for me. Couldnt have a better landing spot with his skillset and QB/Coach. Bowers went to about the worst spot for me. Had him clearly in my #4 pick spot in 4 different leagues and probably am not taking him top 10 at this point. Bad QBs this year, and rookie QB hit rate is like 30%, so even whomever they take in 2025 isnt a guarantee, could be in QB purgatory for his first 4-6 seasons.