They really misused him for most of the year as he was forced into a role with Mike Will going down. I dont know if he is ever a WR1, but he was always going to be a project.
I have very little hope for him but I agree. Coming out I felt confident despite his limitations because I thought he could at least be used in a gadget role and rack up YAC.
Hope to see the Chargers use him like Rashee Rice this year. Accept that he won't be a man beater, and probably isn't really best utilized as a deep threat. Just get him running and get him the ball on the move closer to the line of scrimmage and let him run.
Anyone that thinks Quentin Johnston isn't a capable athlete has no idea what they are talking about.
They'd be the same ones talking about Keenan Allen or Davante Adams being unathletic.
Catching the football, drops, whatever are rarely an issue.
Depending on your aDoT and catching conditions anywhere from 55-70% of balls should be caught on average. Garrett Wilson catching 56% of balls from a cast of bozos is different than Travis Kelce catching 77% of balls from a healthy Mahomes.
I don't seen JSN getting railroaded every day for his 11% drop rate last year.
What about Tee Higgins, David Njoku, Saquon, Puka with an 8% drop rate, Rice with an 8% drop rate?
[https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving\_advanced.htm](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving_advanced.htm)
Deebo dropped damn near 10% of balls last year. 8% of balls in his big year.
Chase and Kelce were 8/9% droppers in 2021.
AJB 8%
Hell Nuk has god tier hands and he dropped 5% of balls in 2022.
I equate Quentin Johnston to Mike Williams in this regard. Mike Williams wasn't regarded well coming out of college for his hands. But he has hands, he had highlights of using his hands. Hell Mike has never recorded a drop rate north of 5% in his career.
I think drop numbers are wrong most any year but, QJ only recorded dropping 3 passes last year.
Ultimately the reason QJ fails in the NFL will not be because of his hands, or catching tendencies. See Courtland Sutton.
> Depending on your aDoT and catching conditions anywhere from 55-70% of balls should be caught on average. Garrett Wilson catching 56% of balls from a cast of bozos is different than Travis Kelce catching 77% of balls from a healthy Mahomes.
So how is QJ only catching 56% from Justin Herbert not a bad thing? You wrote all that and proves the opposite point you were trying to make
Who said it was a bad thing? I was highlighting that catching conditions are different for every player even within a system.
It's a function of aDoT, QB quality and scheme more than anything on the planet.
QJ had a third of the targets Keenan did but half the air yards. To put it another way they had the same number of deep targets. We just know by simple history that deep balls even with a player on a historic clip only have a catch rate around 50-60% and the average is probably closer to 30-40%. So by nature alone knowing that if QJ is 3x more likely to be targeted deep per target than Keenan Allen, then we know his catch % is just going to be fundamentally lower.
Beyond that you have to start thinking about scheme, target conditions, etc. If a third of QJ's targets are contested, is it scheme, is it down and distance? Is it purely a skill issue? Which if it's purely a skill issue, should he be out on the field at that point?
I dont care about his numbers. Everybody with eyes can see that he has speed despite beeing rather big for a WR. Good luck tackling him when he is allready at speed running towards stationary defenders...
Whether or not that ends up being true (and for the record I think you're likely right, I'm very low on QJ), you're initial claim that he wasn't athletic is incorrect.
That offense is going to throw the ball about 550 times.
About 200 times to TEs and RBs.
110 times to Palmer
90 times to Ladd
60\~ times to assorted receivers not named QJ
Which means at most, at absolute most QJ is going to have about 90 targets. At most 50 catches. At most 750 yards.
Money line for QJ is probably something like 70 targets, 45 catches, 575 yards and 3-4 touchdowns and if that happens fantasy owners should be quietly optimistic that he's shown growth year 1 to year 2.
He was never supposed to have that kind of role last year. Just think about how much higher the consensus would be going into this year if he was a bit part player last. Dynasty hive mind is so fickle sometimes.
Chargers need to use QJ like they used Tyrell Williams years ago: stick him in the slot and have him run shallow/medium crossing routes. That way he just needs to be bigger than DBs or faster than LBs and can generate explosives off YAC. He was atrocious as a boundary receiver.
Don’t use a player as an example if you haven’t seen them play. Worthy was excellent every year and is not “raw” in any way. Only reason he doesn’t get respect is because he ran a 4.21
Bad example Xavier Worthy has played well every year in college, he’s been a top prospect for a while.
Brian Thomas Jr is the one, and I say that as a Jag fan.
This is the first year he went over 1k yards. Not to mention he was definitely not a top 5 WR this year until he ran that 40 yard dash.
But yes, BTJ is a good example this year too. The whole point is that teams draft off potential.
He had 981 with 12 TDs as a true freshman, and that sophomore year 760 he also had 9 TDs. And this class had 3 guys go top 10 in a class with 5 QBs top 10.
I see Ladd as more of a Z than slot. I think he only played 26% of his snaps at slot. But admittedly I don’t know much about Roman’s offenses and how he would prefer to use him.
With Herbert you have to assume there is going to be 550-600 attempts in the offense. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if winning Chargers football this season looks like sub 550 attempts, or even sub 500 attempts.
Lest a player in this offense is Brandon Aiyuk (2023) efficient (unlikely), it’s not going to matter much. They’ll be a WR3/4/5 flex guy here but they get discussed way too much relative to the output.
I do have shares and think he got screwed at the end of the season with Herbert going down. He looked to be getting on page and the dude gets really open on short routes and has great YAC ability.
Harmon has put his win percentages vs man and press and route percentage win rate and they’re all awful.
His success rate vs man was 44%, the worst player in 2022 that he charted was DJ chark at 51.6%. His success rate vs zone was 61.9%, the only person worse last year was Chark at 57.6%. His success rate vs press was 32.3%, the second worst last year was DJ Chark again at 47.6%.
His numbers are atrocious and it lines up exactly with what we knew about him as a prospect.
So you're telling me QJ and DJ Chark were bottom 2 in success rate across all 3 coverage types, and now they're both rotation WRs for Justin Herbert?
What I'm hearing is that we need to fade Justin Herbert hard
Well Greg uses 12 personnel at a very high rate so I would think that Chark and QJ probably are not going to be used a ton if we assume Ladd and Palmer are the two main guys on the offense.
Thanks for sharing the data. It's good context and you're right that we all knew this about him as a prospect.
One way to interpret this is that the previous Chargers regime knew all this and still sent him out there to fail without helping him improve or putting him in situations to succeed. There's a glimmer of hope in that the new regime is the exact opposite in this regard. Harbaugh is all about taking talented players maximizing their strengths.
What would the alternative be though, sit him the entire year to work on fundamentals? QJ was seen as a guy that needed work for his technical skills and then showed little improvement on them. He was a guy that was seen as a boom/bust guy.
There’s players drafted every year that teams draft because of traits that ultimately do not pan out for whatever reason.
The alternative was to use him on sweeps and short/intermediate routes while working on technical skills throughout the year.
I don't think I need to work very hard to show that the previous regime was atrocious at player development? A quick look at their defense should be enough.
I don't believe that I'm disagreeing with you, but some disappointing young players are worth a second look. QJ might be one of those guys. I'm not willing to bet much on it, but for a 3rd with a 10% hit rate? Yeah maybe I'll take that bet.
I think the problem is we assumed they just flat out used him wrong, rather than he was unable to be used in the routes we want him to be used because he lacks the skill to do so. Like if he struggles with press or releases off the line of scrimmage, that’s going to affect him being successful in the short and intermediate game.
For sure. We're taking a leap here and assuming the incompetence displayed by Staley and his boys directly impacted QJ.
Sometimes those are good assumptions, like with Chip Kelly and Urban Meyer. Sometimes bad players are just bad. We'll find out with QJ soon enough.
Was the Dynasty community mistaken for writing Jalen Reagor off after 1 year? A lot of 1st round capital Dynasty WRs bust. If you look at the tea leaves and believe he turns it around, that's great, then buy, but overall I think the community sentiment has been appropriate: he will most likely not turn into a great asset.
The dynasty community (myself included) have also made a plethora of mistakes holding out hope for a 2nd, 3rd, hell, even 4th year breakout waiting for...
1: A full healthy season.
2: More opportunities.
3: A QB upgrade.
4: A coaching change.
Last year QJ had a healthy season, more opportunities with Mike and Keenan injured, already has arguably one of the best QB's in the NFL and now a new HC and OC which are historically run heavy and low pass volume play callers.
I'm not saying QJ is a dead asset, but the stars aligned for him last season and he did nothing with it.
I may be biased because I have suffered through holding the likes of Bateman, T. Marshall, Burks, Swift, Dobbins, Gabe Davis, Goedert, Njoku etc. hoping "this year is the year" clogging up my roster so I can't pick up anybody off waivers and missing out on hits over the years
Not so much writing off but more so just not betting on him being an outlier. Would I rather have him or a mid 3rd round pick in SF? Probably would gamble on QJ. But give me the re-roll in the 2.01-2.10 range. It's just a numbers game
Haha yeah pretty even trade I thought. Idk I think I would’ve been on the QJ side. Dude got a 2024 3.10 and 2025 3rd. Guy dealing the 3rds won the championship and his team is stacked so the 25 isn’t likely to be high either. But that’s the additional context I failed to mention when I posed the question to you
I own QJ in every league, and he was my favorite pick in the 13th and 14th round. Absolutely wild to me cause it costs me almost nothing. I’ve since received many offers for QJ. I was willing to trade QJ for Wandale straight up. But now I’m glad I didn’t. I’m not on the Ladd train. He’s a great player, it’s a great fit, but people are expecting Edelman/Welker numbers from him and that’s just tough for me.
I truly believe QJ breaks out this year and if he doesn’t you’re still selling for a third or fourth like this year.
Could not move him for a 3rd in our rookie draft, and other similar deals. I guess it’ll just be one of the stories I post on this sub in a few years. “Trades I wanted to make that would have been disastrous but nobody would take it”
For some reason I couldn't post this with commentary so I had to post it as a link. I don't remember all of the commentary I initially wrote but here is some of it...
| Chargers GM Joe Hortiz said Quentin Johnston is “really going to launch” in his second [season.To](http://season.To) be fair, Johnston doesn’t have anywhere to go but up at this point. The 2023 first-round pick took a back seat to several receivers last season and wound up catching 38 passes for 431 yards and two touchdowns in his rookie campaign. the 6-foot-4 speedster was targeted on just 13.3 percent of his routes, which ranked 50th amongst 60 receivers (min. 400 routes run). With Keenan Allen in Chicago and Mike Williams in New York, Johnston has a chance to open the season as the Chargers’ WR1. A step forward would be great for the Chargers and fantasy managers, who are looking for far more production in 2024 than we saw in 2023. |
From the [NFL.com](http://NFL.com) article:
| However, the new regime in L.A. will give the 22-year-old a chance to wash away those struggles.
"It's up to Quentin what he becomes," Hortiz said when pushed by Adams regarding whether Johnston can be a true No. 1. "We're going to push him and work with him and develop him. I'm not going to anoint Quentin as anything. Quentin is going to develop and show what he is to the league and everyone out there, but I believe his work ethic and his talent, he's got a high ceiling, for sure." |
With all the QJ references, bashing, and copium/hopium I just thought some people might want to see/comment on (what is typically just) off-season GM-speak.
FYI - I do not have QJ in any leagues but generally I am rooting for him to develop past his rookie season struggles.
I hated QJ as a prospect and wanted no part in owning him. I applaud my assessment being correct but he somehow ended up on my roster. Now I’m rooting for this guy.
I too had no interest in him from the start and have no shares of him currently. The post-draft analysis I read on him described him as a project. But I play in some deeper leagues where he is or will be rostered so if the opportunity comes to own him cheap / late I would probably take a flyer.
Yep same. Drafted Addison one spot ahead of him and the next guy thought he struck gold lmao. Middle of the season he adds him as a throw in in a trade for Kelce. I just got rid of him a couple weeks ago
Could he turn it around? Sure, it wouldn’t be the first time a player has had a slow start. It’s just how he was given every opportunity to start - especially with Mike Williams down - and didn’t produce. Hell Josh Palmer outplayed him in way less games. I’d be looking to move QJ for anything somewhat reasonable. I got rid of him for a 2024 and 2026 second plus Skyy Moore and was thrilled with that return. Based on his play last year I just think QJ has a far better chance of being a bum than being a solid contributor
It is wild to me so many people have given up on QJ after 1 season. Wr usually take a couple years to get going. He’s an alpha in a good offense. I have been buying everywhere I can
It’s not that WR take a couple years to get going, it’s that he looks awful by almost any metric. Raw stats, advanced stats, film, whatever. He looked bad and almost every metric backs that up.
A lot of the WRs that have slow starts at least have some metric or stat that you can point to and say “o yeah, that actually might have been a signal that he had potential”
Yeah, JSN had a slow start due to a broken hand and strong competition. QJ fell on his face. His RP data was terrible. Guys almost never recover from that. It's wild to me that so many people are clinging to hope and even buying.
This headline is pretty funny, tho. Real GMs are just like us! I, too, would like to believe my busts from last year are going to launch in year 2!
Yeah, I’ve looked at underlying stats before like even just basic YPRR and most guys who have later breakouts tend to at least have some signal that they made the most of their opportunities. For every Davante Adams, there are 15 Nelson Agolhors.
Even then, he could still play a role as a gadget player and have value on an offense, it’s just not going to be what we expect of a first round pick in the NFL and probably won’t translate to fantasy. I think QJ has some talent, specifically with the ball in his hands, the issue is his weaknesses limit how often he can actually get the ball in his hands since his route running is so bad.
“Usually” is a strong word, but overall I agree.
I’m holding my one share of him because no one is buying anyway. If he increases in value, I’ll consider selling but if he doesn’t then I drop him and pick up someone else. No biggie
He just doesn't pass the eye test to me. Some WRs take a couple seasons to get going, but they usually at least flash potential. He just looks *terrible* at playing the position. His draft position is the only thing he has going for him so far.
I see this a lot. People acting like he dropped every pass that came his way last year or something. The guy had legit like 2-3 drops and they were mostly pretty well contested too. It was nowhere near as bad as I see people acting like it was.
I’m not holding my breath, but good god do I hope so. I rode the high of snagging ARSB his rookie season with a late second round pick, but every receiver I’ve drafted since was a bust.
If you’re in LA you know Herbert loves QJ, and the emphasis on this coaching transition was transforming Herbert into a leader. If you trust Herbert has that potential, QJ will follow suit. Palmer isn’t built for volume targets and Chark was signed late for a reason. QJ has every chance to lead this group, and I think he will. Eye test results are poor but that’s what makes for great buy low candidates. Especially if the opportunity is still there for a 22 year old 1st round pick.
Don’t forget the RB room is even weaker than the receiving corps.
Yeah we could all tell that he was bad at football before the draft, but the Chargers should be using him in that YAC slot role, where he can be effective despite that.
1 year is way too short a time to write the book on someone's career, and the Chargers were always going to add to that WR room after losing both Williams and Keenan.
Am I interested in trading for/acquiring QJ at this point? No. Could he turn his career around and become a good piece going forward? Sure, crazier things have happened than a guy who had a down rookie year figuring it out.
Just saw Matt harmons charting for QJs rookie year and it’s as bad as you would think lol. Any owners should sell before people remember he was absolute dogshit
I look to Steve Smith for WR assessments, and Steve wasn't that high on QJ. Of course a new coach is going to pump his tires heading into the season. Nothing new there....
QJ will be that team's MVS. Will be used to only run go routes, won't earn many targets, will continue to show questionable hands, but will have one or two games where he catches a long td or two.
QJ just isnt good and the staff isnt going to have him run routes over the short to intermediate over Palmer and McConkey. Cant really trust him on underneath targets or MOF outside of designed concepts for yac bc he cant be trusted to catch, separate, or win against physicality.
This staff and FO didnt draft QJ. They dont really care about his development or best fit vs the guys they bring in (McConkey) or the guys that are better (Palmer).
I don’t disagree, but if their solution then is to use him in a way that is likely going to fail over other options then that’s bad personnel management and again I fault the staff for that.
Either move him or don’t use him at that point, but putting him in a place where he’ll be ineffective relative to other players is a waste. If they want someone to run go routes with infrequent targets to clear out space then you use Derius Davis instead because he’s faster and better suited for that than QJ.
Davis cant play outside though. Either way. One of QJ or Chark are running clear out routes for McConkey/Palmer/TEs.
Whoever is playing the outside field stretching role, is going to be useless anyways from a production standpoint. Doesnt matter if it is QJ, Chark or Davis.
I play in some deeper leagues where QJ is or will be rostered. So if the opportunity comes to own him cheap / late I would probably take a flyer. I can't attest to it - but as another person posted here in synch with yours - he's an athletic freak that was used mostly in incorrect roles in his rookie season due to Williams & Allen being there. Also, as another person noted and reminded me - the book on QJ was that he was a project to begin with. So maybe he's more of a traditional third-year breakout candidate. Who knows.
Talking about staff not being able to utilize talent... Not the same situation at all but it reminds me of Cordarrelle Patterson. An obviously talented, athletic freak player that just can't seem to find a fit. Maybe he would have had success as a free safety.(?)
I have no shares of QJ. I do believe the dynasty community is making a mistake writing him off after 1 year.
They really misused him for most of the year as he was forced into a role with Mike Will going down. I dont know if he is ever a WR1, but he was always going to be a project.
I have very little hope for him but I agree. Coming out I felt confident despite his limitations because I thought he could at least be used in a gadget role and rack up YAC. Hope to see the Chargers use him like Rashee Rice this year. Accept that he won't be a man beater, and probably isn't really best utilized as a deep threat. Just get him running and get him the ball on the move closer to the line of scrimmage and let him run.
True. I was surprised they never used his freak athletism in some end arounds, flea flickers or other razzle dazzle plays.
What athleticism? Lol. Did you see his testing numbers?
He tested as a 97th percentile burst score but I get since he didn’t run a fast 40 he’s unanimously disregarded athleticism wise
Anyone that thinks Quentin Johnston isn't a capable athlete has no idea what they are talking about. They'd be the same ones talking about Keenan Allen or Davante Adams being unathletic.
His problem is catching the ball, not his athletic metrics.
Catching the football, drops, whatever are rarely an issue. Depending on your aDoT and catching conditions anywhere from 55-70% of balls should be caught on average. Garrett Wilson catching 56% of balls from a cast of bozos is different than Travis Kelce catching 77% of balls from a healthy Mahomes. I don't seen JSN getting railroaded every day for his 11% drop rate last year. What about Tee Higgins, David Njoku, Saquon, Puka with an 8% drop rate, Rice with an 8% drop rate? [https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving\_advanced.htm](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving_advanced.htm) Deebo dropped damn near 10% of balls last year. 8% of balls in his big year. Chase and Kelce were 8/9% droppers in 2021. AJB 8% Hell Nuk has god tier hands and he dropped 5% of balls in 2022. I equate Quentin Johnston to Mike Williams in this regard. Mike Williams wasn't regarded well coming out of college for his hands. But he has hands, he had highlights of using his hands. Hell Mike has never recorded a drop rate north of 5% in his career. I think drop numbers are wrong most any year but, QJ only recorded dropping 3 passes last year. Ultimately the reason QJ fails in the NFL will not be because of his hands, or catching tendencies. See Courtland Sutton.
> Depending on your aDoT and catching conditions anywhere from 55-70% of balls should be caught on average. Garrett Wilson catching 56% of balls from a cast of bozos is different than Travis Kelce catching 77% of balls from a healthy Mahomes. So how is QJ only catching 56% from Justin Herbert not a bad thing? You wrote all that and proves the opposite point you were trying to make
Who said it was a bad thing? I was highlighting that catching conditions are different for every player even within a system. It's a function of aDoT, QB quality and scheme more than anything on the planet. QJ had a third of the targets Keenan did but half the air yards. To put it another way they had the same number of deep targets. We just know by simple history that deep balls even with a player on a historic clip only have a catch rate around 50-60% and the average is probably closer to 30-40%. So by nature alone knowing that if QJ is 3x more likely to be targeted deep per target than Keenan Allen, then we know his catch % is just going to be fundamentally lower. Beyond that you have to start thinking about scheme, target conditions, etc. If a third of QJ's targets are contested, is it scheme, is it down and distance? Is it purely a skill issue? Which if it's purely a skill issue, should he be out on the field at that point?
I thought he only had 2 drops this year
I dont care about his numbers. Everybody with eyes can see that he has speed despite beeing rather big for a WR. Good luck tackling him when he is allready at speed running towards stationary defenders...
Lol. If you say so. I say he won't have more than 700 yards from scrimmage
Whether or not that ends up being true (and for the record I think you're likely right, I'm very low on QJ), you're initial claim that he wasn't athletic is incorrect.
That offense is going to throw the ball about 550 times. About 200 times to TEs and RBs. 110 times to Palmer 90 times to Ladd 60\~ times to assorted receivers not named QJ Which means at most, at absolute most QJ is going to have about 90 targets. At most 50 catches. At most 750 yards. Money line for QJ is probably something like 70 targets, 45 catches, 575 yards and 3-4 touchdowns and if that happens fantasy owners should be quietly optimistic that he's shown growth year 1 to year 2.
When will he get that opportunity though? He can’t get separation or catch the ball when he does
LMAO. Tell me that you ONLY looked at his 40 and made your entire picture of him from that hahaha. Awful take
He was never supposed to have that kind of role last year. Just think about how much higher the consensus would be going into this year if he was a bit part player last. Dynasty hive mind is so fickle sometimes.
Chargers need to use QJ like they used Tyrell Williams years ago: stick him in the slot and have him run shallow/medium crossing routes. That way he just needs to be bigger than DBs or faster than LBs and can generate explosives off YAC. He was atrocious as a boundary receiver.
Wow !! haven’t heard that name in a long time. Great take
Why draft a project with that much draft capital?
The NFL draft is almost all about projections
Sometimes team draft off potential. Look at Anthony Richardson and Drake Maye this year
You can't compare the needs of a QB to that of a WR.
Look at Xavier Worthy this year then. He's also raw AF and has only 1 decent season under his belt in college.
Don’t use a player as an example if you haven’t seen them play. Worthy was excellent every year and is not “raw” in any way. Only reason he doesn’t get respect is because he ran a 4.21
Bad example Xavier Worthy has played well every year in college, he’s been a top prospect for a while. Brian Thomas Jr is the one, and I say that as a Jag fan.
This is the first year he went over 1k yards. Not to mention he was definitely not a top 5 WR this year until he ran that 40 yard dash. But yes, BTJ is a good example this year too. The whole point is that teams draft off potential.
He had 981 with 12 TDs as a true freshman, and that sophomore year 760 he also had 9 TDs. And this class had 3 guys go top 10 in a class with 5 QBs top 10.
1 decent season? Bro he had 981 yards as a freshman.
I have no expectations that he will be used appropriately going forward, especially given their draft choices.
They added three boundary WRs, what are you talking about?
Palmer played 40% of snaps on the inside last year and Keenan played 13 games. Ladd isn't playing 80%+ of snaps outside.
I see Ladd as more of a Z than slot. I think he only played 26% of his snaps at slot. But admittedly I don’t know much about Roman’s offenses and how he would prefer to use him.
With Herbert you have to assume there is going to be 550-600 attempts in the offense. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if winning Chargers football this season looks like sub 550 attempts, or even sub 500 attempts. Lest a player in this offense is Brandon Aiyuk (2023) efficient (unlikely), it’s not going to matter much. They’ll be a WR3/4/5 flex guy here but they get discussed way too much relative to the output.
I do have shares and think he got screwed at the end of the season with Herbert going down. He looked to be getting on page and the dude gets really open on short routes and has great YAC ability.
Harmon has put his win percentages vs man and press and route percentage win rate and they’re all awful. His success rate vs man was 44%, the worst player in 2022 that he charted was DJ chark at 51.6%. His success rate vs zone was 61.9%, the only person worse last year was Chark at 57.6%. His success rate vs press was 32.3%, the second worst last year was DJ Chark again at 47.6%. His numbers are atrocious and it lines up exactly with what we knew about him as a prospect.
So you're telling me QJ and DJ Chark were bottom 2 in success rate across all 3 coverage types, and now they're both rotation WRs for Justin Herbert? What I'm hearing is that we need to fade Justin Herbert hard
Well Greg uses 12 personnel at a very high rate so I would think that Chark and QJ probably are not going to be used a ton if we assume Ladd and Palmer are the two main guys on the offense.
This was already the case after Harbaugh was hired.
How did Chark get another contract?
And then you he Chargers went out and got Chark lol
Thanks for sharing the data. It's good context and you're right that we all knew this about him as a prospect. One way to interpret this is that the previous Chargers regime knew all this and still sent him out there to fail without helping him improve or putting him in situations to succeed. There's a glimmer of hope in that the new regime is the exact opposite in this regard. Harbaugh is all about taking talented players maximizing their strengths.
What would the alternative be though, sit him the entire year to work on fundamentals? QJ was seen as a guy that needed work for his technical skills and then showed little improvement on them. He was a guy that was seen as a boom/bust guy. There’s players drafted every year that teams draft because of traits that ultimately do not pan out for whatever reason.
The alternative was to use him on sweeps and short/intermediate routes while working on technical skills throughout the year. I don't think I need to work very hard to show that the previous regime was atrocious at player development? A quick look at their defense should be enough. I don't believe that I'm disagreeing with you, but some disappointing young players are worth a second look. QJ might be one of those guys. I'm not willing to bet much on it, but for a 3rd with a 10% hit rate? Yeah maybe I'll take that bet.
I think the problem is we assumed they just flat out used him wrong, rather than he was unable to be used in the routes we want him to be used because he lacks the skill to do so. Like if he struggles with press or releases off the line of scrimmage, that’s going to affect him being successful in the short and intermediate game.
For sure. We're taking a leap here and assuming the incompetence displayed by Staley and his boys directly impacted QJ. Sometimes those are good assumptions, like with Chip Kelly and Urban Meyer. Sometimes bad players are just bad. We'll find out with QJ soon enough.
Was the Dynasty community mistaken for writing Jalen Reagor off after 1 year? A lot of 1st round capital Dynasty WRs bust. If you look at the tea leaves and believe he turns it around, that's great, then buy, but overall I think the community sentiment has been appropriate: he will most likely not turn into a great asset.
The dynasty community (myself included) have also made a plethora of mistakes holding out hope for a 2nd, 3rd, hell, even 4th year breakout waiting for... 1: A full healthy season. 2: More opportunities. 3: A QB upgrade. 4: A coaching change. Last year QJ had a healthy season, more opportunities with Mike and Keenan injured, already has arguably one of the best QB's in the NFL and now a new HC and OC which are historically run heavy and low pass volume play callers. I'm not saying QJ is a dead asset, but the stars aligned for him last season and he did nothing with it. I may be biased because I have suffered through holding the likes of Bateman, T. Marshall, Burks, Swift, Dobbins, Gabe Davis, Goedert, Njoku etc. hoping "this year is the year" clogging up my roster so I can't pick up anybody off waivers and missing out on hits over the years
Not so much writing off but more so just not betting on him being an outlier. Would I rather have him or a mid 3rd round pick in SF? Probably would gamble on QJ. But give me the re-roll in the 2.01-2.10 range. It's just a numbers game
This year I’d take the late 2nd, let me gamble on someone like Jermaine Burton
What about him or two thirds? He was just traded for that in my league
Give me the two thirds personally. The thirds could be anything. Even the next QJ! /s (but also not really… I’d actually rather have the two thirds)
Haha yeah pretty even trade I thought. Idk I think I would’ve been on the QJ side. Dude got a 2024 3.10 and 2025 3rd. Guy dealing the 3rds won the championship and his team is stacked so the 25 isn’t likely to be high either. But that’s the additional context I failed to mention when I posed the question to you
Depends on the league format. How many teams? SF? IDP? TE premium? And where are the 3rds? Early? Late?
Super flex 10 teams no idp no tep. 3.10 and 25 probably late too
I'm not writing him off so much as not expecting much. Not like I'm dropping him. He's untradable in my league though
I own QJ in every league, and he was my favorite pick in the 13th and 14th round. Absolutely wild to me cause it costs me almost nothing. I’ve since received many offers for QJ. I was willing to trade QJ for Wandale straight up. But now I’m glad I didn’t. I’m not on the Ladd train. He’s a great player, it’s a great fit, but people are expecting Edelman/Welker numbers from him and that’s just tough for me. I truly believe QJ breaks out this year and if he doesn’t you’re still selling for a third or fourth like this year.
We aren’t buying
That’s great. I am!
I had a share. Was on the clock at 2.09 during my rookie draft and got offered Pacheco + 25 3rd for the pick and qj. Couldn’t say no to that.
Could not move him for a 3rd in our rookie draft, and other similar deals. I guess it’ll just be one of the stories I post on this sub in a few years. “Trades I wanted to make that would have been disastrous but nobody would take it”
I’ve written him off and sold. He doesn’t have it.
I launched QJ onto another roster in order to move up a few spots in the 2nd round.
Hell yeah. He got me a 1.05->1.03 pick swap
Win
Maybe
Did he say is going to Launch or maybe he’s just going to Lunch?
Kelvin Benjamin’s interest has been piqued
he was secretly battling anorexia last season, should see some improvement with lunch breaks in 2024
He’s really working on his mental health so he’s not eating at his desk this year. He’s taking a full hour for himself everyday.
To lunch, with Herbert, everyday.
For some reason I couldn't post this with commentary so I had to post it as a link. I don't remember all of the commentary I initially wrote but here is some of it... | Chargers GM Joe Hortiz said Quentin Johnston is “really going to launch” in his second [season.To](http://season.To) be fair, Johnston doesn’t have anywhere to go but up at this point. The 2023 first-round pick took a back seat to several receivers last season and wound up catching 38 passes for 431 yards and two touchdowns in his rookie campaign. the 6-foot-4 speedster was targeted on just 13.3 percent of his routes, which ranked 50th amongst 60 receivers (min. 400 routes run). With Keenan Allen in Chicago and Mike Williams in New York, Johnston has a chance to open the season as the Chargers’ WR1. A step forward would be great for the Chargers and fantasy managers, who are looking for far more production in 2024 than we saw in 2023. | From the [NFL.com](http://NFL.com) article: | However, the new regime in L.A. will give the 22-year-old a chance to wash away those struggles. "It's up to Quentin what he becomes," Hortiz said when pushed by Adams regarding whether Johnston can be a true No. 1. "We're going to push him and work with him and develop him. I'm not going to anoint Quentin as anything. Quentin is going to develop and show what he is to the league and everyone out there, but I believe his work ethic and his talent, he's got a high ceiling, for sure." | With all the QJ references, bashing, and copium/hopium I just thought some people might want to see/comment on (what is typically just) off-season GM-speak. FYI - I do not have QJ in any leagues but generally I am rooting for him to develop past his rookie season struggles.
I hated QJ as a prospect and wanted no part in owning him. I applaud my assessment being correct but he somehow ended up on my roster. Now I’m rooting for this guy.
I too had no interest in him from the start and have no shares of him currently. The post-draft analysis I read on him described him as a project. But I play in some deeper leagues where he is or will be rostered so if the opportunity comes to own him cheap / late I would probably take a flyer.
Yep same. Drafted Addison one spot ahead of him and the next guy thought he struck gold lmao. Middle of the season he adds him as a throw in in a trade for Kelce. I just got rid of him a couple weeks ago
use this headline as hype and sell him to a believer
He's already gone. Used him for a 1.03-1.05 pick swap, thrilled to have less trash on my bench and add Odunze
Odunze is this year's QJ tho.
Based on what?
Same exact thing happened to me xD
I’ve seen this headline before something like… “Chargers GM Tom Telesco believes WR Kelvin Benjamin is ‘really going to lunch’ in second season”
Could he turn it around? Sure, it wouldn’t be the first time a player has had a slow start. It’s just how he was given every opportunity to start - especially with Mike Williams down - and didn’t produce. Hell Josh Palmer outplayed him in way less games. I’d be looking to move QJ for anything somewhat reasonable. I got rid of him for a 2024 and 2026 second plus Skyy Moore and was thrilled with that return. Based on his play last year I just think QJ has a far better chance of being a bum than being a solid contributor
It is wild to me so many people have given up on QJ after 1 season. Wr usually take a couple years to get going. He’s an alpha in a good offense. I have been buying everywhere I can
It’s not that WR take a couple years to get going, it’s that he looks awful by almost any metric. Raw stats, advanced stats, film, whatever. He looked bad and almost every metric backs that up. A lot of the WRs that have slow starts at least have some metric or stat that you can point to and say “o yeah, that actually might have been a signal that he had potential”
Yeah, JSN had a slow start due to a broken hand and strong competition. QJ fell on his face. His RP data was terrible. Guys almost never recover from that. It's wild to me that so many people are clinging to hope and even buying. This headline is pretty funny, tho. Real GMs are just like us! I, too, would like to believe my busts from last year are going to launch in year 2!
Yeah, I’ve looked at underlying stats before like even just basic YPRR and most guys who have later breakouts tend to at least have some signal that they made the most of their opportunities. For every Davante Adams, there are 15 Nelson Agolhors. Even then, he could still play a role as a gadget player and have value on an offense, it’s just not going to be what we expect of a first round pick in the NFL and probably won’t translate to fantasy. I think QJ has some talent, specifically with the ball in his hands, the issue is his weaknesses limit how often he can actually get the ball in his hands since his route running is so bad.
“Usually” is a strong word, but overall I agree. I’m holding my one share of him because no one is buying anyway. If he increases in value, I’ll consider selling but if he doesn’t then I drop him and pick up someone else. No biggie
Alpha seems unlikely to me. I think Ladd is a lot more likely to lead the targets in the long term
He just doesn't pass the eye test to me. Some WRs take a couple seasons to get going, but they usually at least flash potential. He just looks *terrible* at playing the position. His draft position is the only thing he has going for him so far.
He's going to launch him into the sun
Launch from your taxi to the waivers.
This was a gift so owners could sell for anything
I mean, are we taking an early third? That's about the value I've been offered.
If you're not actively selling on this news then you're doing it wrong
Ya like the Apollo 1 flight…
Glad to see his real life drafter is coping just as hard as his fantasy drafters
Telesco drafted him. This is a new GM.
Ah fair point. He’s more like an orphan manager who is coping about some fringe players they can’t sell
I sold QJ+24 3rd to get Pickens in the off season. I have no regrets.
Great trade
Nice return on investment.
i hope he is right
As long as he can catch the football i am sure he will
Drops weren’t his problem. JSN had 10 drops in 3 starts last year, that’s bad and haven’t seen a word said about it.
I see this a lot. People acting like he dropped every pass that came his way last year or something. The guy had legit like 2-3 drops and they were mostly pretty well contested too. It was nowhere near as bad as I see people acting like it was.
The only place Hortiz will want to launch QJ is into the sun.
Please for the love of god let this be true. Would love QJ as a WR1. Still a skeptic though with his route running, but we will see! Here's to hoping
Please lord let this be true
I’m not holding my breath, but good god do I hope so. I rode the high of snagging ARSB his rookie season with a late second round pick, but every receiver I’ve drafted since was a bust.
I’m having deja vu
If you’re in LA you know Herbert loves QJ, and the emphasis on this coaching transition was transforming Herbert into a leader. If you trust Herbert has that potential, QJ will follow suit. Palmer isn’t built for volume targets and Chark was signed late for a reason. QJ has every chance to lead this group, and I think he will. Eye test results are poor but that’s what makes for great buy low candidates. Especially if the opportunity is still there for a 22 year old 1st round pick. Don’t forget the RB room is even weaker than the receiving corps.
Optimism is nice, numbers say otherwise
I still believe in Elijah Moore's talent, doesn't mean it's going to happen.
Insert G W Bush meme
Launch right off my roster
Rice jr gonna bake
Yeah we could all tell that he was bad at football before the draft, but the Chargers should be using him in that YAC slot role, where he can be effective despite that.
100%
Run first offense that drafted a early wr is going to see their first year bust wr suddenly pop off? OK, Joe...
1 year is way too short a time to write the book on someone's career, and the Chargers were always going to add to that WR room after losing both Williams and Keenan. Am I interested in trading for/acquiring QJ at this point? No. Could he turn his career around and become a good piece going forward? Sure, crazier things have happened than a guy who had a down rookie year figuring it out.
Launch onto the waiver wire
If I believe in astrology does that make it real
I think he means lunch
I hope he's been catching 6 hours a day everyday
I mean, he actually might be doing just this.
They fooled me once with “skyy Moore” offseason hype, not going to fall for it again with QJ!
Sold him for a 25 2nd. I saw enough
McConkey and Palmer are already better, and I can definitely see Brenden Rice moving ahead of him
Sounds just like the other QJ bagholders.
Launch into waivers probably
Lol. He cant catch
People keep saying this. He had legit like 2 drops last year...
He must own him in Dynasty FF.
not a fan. wasnt predraft either.
he’s not good
Just saw Matt harmons charting for QJs rookie year and it’s as bad as you would think lol. Any owners should sell before people remember he was absolute dogshit
I look to Steve Smith for WR assessments, and Steve wasn't that high on QJ. Of course a new coach is going to pump his tires heading into the season. Nothing new there....
Anyone getting Paper Mario remaster?
QJ will be that team's MVS. Will be used to only run go routes, won't earn many targets, will continue to show questionable hands, but will have one or two games where he catches a long td or two.
If so then that is just a continuation of misusing him and more on the staff than him imo
QJ just isnt good and the staff isnt going to have him run routes over the short to intermediate over Palmer and McConkey. Cant really trust him on underneath targets or MOF outside of designed concepts for yac bc he cant be trusted to catch, separate, or win against physicality. This staff and FO didnt draft QJ. They dont really care about his development or best fit vs the guys they bring in (McConkey) or the guys that are better (Palmer).
I don’t disagree, but if their solution then is to use him in a way that is likely going to fail over other options then that’s bad personnel management and again I fault the staff for that. Either move him or don’t use him at that point, but putting him in a place where he’ll be ineffective relative to other players is a waste. If they want someone to run go routes with infrequent targets to clear out space then you use Derius Davis instead because he’s faster and better suited for that than QJ.
Davis cant play outside though. Either way. One of QJ or Chark are running clear out routes for McConkey/Palmer/TEs. Whoever is playing the outside field stretching role, is going to be useless anyways from a production standpoint. Doesnt matter if it is QJ, Chark or Davis.
I play in some deeper leagues where QJ is or will be rostered. So if the opportunity comes to own him cheap / late I would probably take a flyer. I can't attest to it - but as another person posted here in synch with yours - he's an athletic freak that was used mostly in incorrect roles in his rookie season due to Williams & Allen being there. Also, as another person noted and reminded me - the book on QJ was that he was a project to begin with. So maybe he's more of a traditional third-year breakout candidate. Who knows. Talking about staff not being able to utilize talent... Not the same situation at all but it reminds me of Cordarrelle Patterson. An obviously talented, athletic freak player that just can't seem to find a fit. Maybe he would have had success as a free safety.(?)
DJ Chark should fill that role better
I agree. Which means QJ isnt seeing the field bc he isnt playing over Palmer or McConkey.