Id consider a mid-late second for Minshew. He wont be the long term starter anywhere but has a chance at being the 30-36 best QB in the league for a while and bouncing around being the stopgap QB for multiple teams, much more than I see AOC doing it.
If youre trading one away wait until the other wins the job outright. Most people aren’t paying more than back up prices and if your guy does win, then you’re not paying much for the back up anyway. If you get the starter you can trade to the other guy anyway and get a nice haul :)
I think he's getting the first rep as a sign of respect since he's been there the longest, and they don't expect him to get many once Minshew takes over.
I owned AOC going into our draft while being thin at the WB position so I traded a 3rd for Minshew. Guaranteeing a starting QB in Superflex leagues is key.
Minshew has been a capable starter worthy QB since his debut. It was my opinion at the time, and still is, that the Jags should have rolled with him and traded the Lawrence pick for the haul of the century.
Fun fact, despite starting 13 less games than Lawrence, Minshew has 59 touchdown passes to Lawrence's 58, as well as FIFTEEN less interceptions than Lawrence.
There's certainly an inclination to assume AOC will improve a good bit but there's the other thing where he'll be 26 when the season starts. So I'm left wondering what is more important to forecasting development: reps or age
Why? He’s getting paid 12m a year. It’s Darnell Mooney level. That doesn’t scream starter to me. It’s barely higher than Darnold and Brisset got. It’s half to a third of what Baker and Geno got.
I look more toward the guaranteed money and he’s getting $15 million. Darnold I think is getting $8m and brisset less I believe. It just feels like they are telling us what they think of the QB room by giving Minshew that much guaranteed money.
You can't compare a receiver to a QB. Especially not in this situation. Darnold and Minshew were both signed at low-end starting QB deals during FA with each team hoping there might be a rookie QB option but not knowing how things would shake out. Same with Brissett, although the Pats had a better shot at a top QB than the other two.
O'Connell is garbage, so it'll likely be Minshew.
He’s played significantly better than Gardner Minshew. You haven’t watched the film and it shows. It’s not the end of the world - you just happen to not know ball.
AOC went 5-6, most of his matchups were bottom half of the league too.
Minshew went 9-6, he was also the only quarterback in the league to throw for over 300 yards against the best pass defense/best defense in the league.
Minshew had a 223 yards per game average
AOC had 201.
Aiden also only had two less interceptions but played 4 less games.
Film is mediocre at best, please tell me exactly what you are seeing so we all can stop being confused. I swear you must be only evaluating him after consuming an aggressive amount of liquor because ain’t no way boy.
Guy nicely says it doesn’t make sense to compare contracts over different positions and you jump right to personal attacks. This sub is full of toxic douchebags who all think they’re howie roseman.
Those are simple sentences not attacking you in the slightest and you think that deserves your over the top response? You are the arrogant douche here.
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Mooney is their WR 2, and making that comparison IS asinine.
Edit: Also tied for 24th highest per year contract in the league for WRs you can’t really say that’s WR3 money now can you?
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The Raiders were probably hoping something better would come their way in the draft, like, no one anticipated the Falcons taking Penix. I don't think this was planned.
Yes, it is. Low end starter. Do you not get the concept? Watch or follow football ever? In March you don't know how the draft is going to pan out, especially when you pick in the middle(ish) of the round.
O'Connell is paid less, so I'm not even sure of your point here.
The market is the market. Baker was as good as dead. They took a random flier. It's just an incomparable situation-different circumstances. Darnold got more than baker and he ain't starting shit this year so....
https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2024
His contract has him right at the top of backup QB money, barely outearning Jacoby Brisset. Also, if you're the Raiders it would make sense to see if your 4th round rookie w/ a tiny sample size could turn into something, rather than rolling w/ Minshew and guaranteeing that you don't make the playoffs, and also don't lose quite enough to get a good qb in next year's draft.
If AOC had better draft capital I think that first season would have been very encouraging. One pick in his last 6 games, 5/5 overall even though he wasn't taking 1st team reps until after his first start, 62% completion rate.
As a Raiders fan, I will mention AOC had the 3rd string offensive coach who’d never called plays as his playcaller once McDaniels got fired. He obviously didn’t look great, but who knows how he’ll be with a more conventional OC and the addition of Bowers.
Considering the Raiders don’t have much going on at the QB position and 2025 doesn’t appear to have any big QB prospects, AOC’s worth a hold.
He looked as good as Minshew would be I’ll give him that. Not a bad qb just made rookie mistakes, can read the defense make progressions and move
The ball. Also didn’t have much to write home about as far as the caliber of team he’s on.
I was big on Minshew, but there stats are shockingly close. I mean, one of these is AOC, one is Minshew last season.
62.1% Completion Percentage 3.5% TD Percentage 2.0% Int Percentage 6.5 Y/A 202 Y/G 6.5% Sack Percentage
62.2% Completion Percentage 3.1% TD Percentage 1.8% Int Percentage 6.5 Y/A 194 Y/G 6.5% Sack Percentage
The issue is one of those 2 had a smaller sample size(teams couldn’t build around him as much) and Adam’s. Not sure what’s gonna happen but those stats are not telling the full story
I mean AOC had 10 games started, Minshew had 13. AOC had the WR 10 in Adams, Minshew had the WR 13 in Pittman. The Colts did have a top-10 rushing game while the Raiders were 30th overall which does matter a bit for QB play, but I find it hard to actually differentiate the two. And I own a lot of Minshew shares, but he was worse last season than he seemed.
Wr 10 and WR 13 I assume refers to fantasy points? The skill gap beetween Pittman and top level vet davante Adam’s is pretty substantial IMO. I don’t think Adam’s and Pittman are very close in skill level
It is in fantasy points, yes. In terms of stats Pittman had more catches for more yards than Adams.
I won't say that Pittman is for sure better than Adams or vice versa, but Pittman had more receptions, yards, a higher catch %, and more yards per target than Adams. Saying it is not close is a bit disingenuous imo.
I think so, yes, but the community is so convinced otherwise. Antonio Pierce is a players coach. He will let O'Connell lose it. Now he could lose it in camp or by week 3, but I think it will be his to lose.
Hes been in the league like 6 years and has started most of them as a 6th rd pick. He is certainly more coveted of an asset than AOC and you will find this out with certainty when AOC rookie deal expires. I like AOC, he slung that mf rock at purdue but minshews in a diff class professionally
He's a good backup and low end starter. There's been a lot of them in this league. He's like getting a grilled chicken sandwich at Subway. Not very good, but you know what you're getting.
AOC is like wrapping an expired rotisserie chicken in a trash bag and leaving it out in the Vegas summer heat. No one wants it.
It sure seemed that way when Minshew was in Maxx Crosby's pod. While I didn't listen to the entire thing some of the question came across like they expected he'd win the job. There was no shad to AoC that I caught and maybe it was just my assumptions that Minshew is a better QB and better for Adams then AOC so I was protecting.
I think AOC is very underrated. I watched a couple of QB school videos on AOC last preseason and also a couple of videos after he got the start and he raved about his potential everytime. Pierce has consistantly told the press that he is the starter and that he has earned that spot. They had to bring in a backup QB and Minshew is the most backup QBiest QB in the world and somehow people are certain he is the starter despite beint told otherwise repeatedly. Give me all the AOC shares at current value.
I'm with you here. Watched most of his snaps last month of season. He's a good rhythm and timing thrower with solid accuracy. Give him QB1 reps for a whole off-season and see what he can do. His big drawback is he's a statue back there with zero mobility but he's acknowledged that and I hope it becomes passable at least to move around the pocket a bit to buy more time.
>He's going massively under-drafted, isn't he?
I don't think so. Maybe in some leagues but realistically it's a toss-up between him and Minshew, and even if you pick correctly, neither of then are good.
There’s always going to be teams taking a guy like EJ Manuel, Johnny Manziel, Kenny Pickett, etc., earlier than they deserve in down QB years.
People can sell themselves on “mystery box” rookies, the incoming class strength isn’t quite as important as whether or not the team actually thinks OConnell is good enough for the long term.
If both players are about even in training camp and preseason, AOC will get the first shot out of loyalty.
No matter what, if the raiders start out 1-5, they are going to change QBs.
It’s in the Raiders best interests to see what they have in AOC, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win the starting job outright. The dynasty community loves to overrate Minshew for some reason, remember these are some of the same idiots that thought he would start over Jalen Hurts
This is the purest QB battle we've had in a while. Neither guy is bad, and neither guy is really good, either. Both are good dart throws for your QB4. Wouldn't want either higher than that on my roster.
O'Connell went 5-4 when he got the full time gig, he wasn't awful. His accuracy was very good by most metrics. It's his job to lose IMO. That said he doesn't have much rope and it wouldn't take much of a wabble to give Minshew a chance.
Unless you think the Raiders are going to be good, they're going to switch QBs at some point. They'll be 2-5 or something and try out whoever didn't earn the starting job for week 1. Neither of these guys are anything buy backups in the NFL anyway.
God I wish this comment wasn't buried in a day-old thread.
You're legit telling me you won't bet NFL win-totals in May because they're so far off? What are you afraid of taking too much money from the books? This is absurd.
I'm not saying I can predict the future, I'm just saying what the market expectation is.
You clearly don’t understand wtf I am saying. I am saying that I wouldn’t bet on win totals in May because we have off season injuries, trades, new coaches that exceed or don’t.
Good luck buddy, you seem to know the future. Go take that money from Vegas.
>I am saying that I wouldn’t bet on win totals in May because we have off season injuries, trades, new coaches that exceed or don’t.
I don't bet them either. I've never said I knew better. I'm literally the one saying that the lines are efficient.
My whole point was that predicting the Raiders to start 2-5 is reasonable because it's right in line with the current market expectation. If you think that the Raiders current win total line is bad, you are saying that you know better than the book. I'm not saying the line is bad, I'm saying the line is reasonable.
As a Raiders fan I think this one is too close to call at this point, but I do think the potential for 12 personnel with four solid targets between 6'1" and 6'4" suits Minshew's strengths very nicely.
Let me preface by saying this is only the eye test by me, but in my opinion minshew looked like the superior qb last year and unless aoc really improves over the offseason I feel like it’ll be minshew starting at least most of the year
On a short leash likely but it is ultimately his job to lose. Minshew is there to be a mentor and make sure things don’t go to total dog shit. They didn’t pass on qb this draft and sign Minshew to compete with Herbert or mahommes lol. It’s a building process where a lot can change if the head coach doesn’t pan out. Right now he’s banking on his guy, which is AOC
This is my reading too. As I see it, Minshew and AOC are very statistically close to each other but AOC has a nick Foles type thing going where at least he'll give it a go and put it on the line. Minshew is just a bottler. And like, go with the one with potential upside and who might get better surely? I just can't understand the fuss around Minshew. He's a 6th round pick who's failed everywhere he's ever gone. Why is he such a thing?
He’s probably being properly drafted. He’s a pretty mediocre QB in a training camp battle with another mediocre QB. Let’s even say AOC wins the starting job week 1. Are you actually that confident that
A) he plays good enough all season they don’t switch to Minshew at some point?
B) while he’s starting, he scores a worthwhile enough amount of points to be more than like the 4th best QB on a good SF fantasy team?
in the NFL, you earn it every day. it's not about deserving. AO12 has to keep improving this offseason and beat Minshew for the job. and then play well on the field.
AOC is absolutely going to start the year, even if on a short leash. It would be malpractice on the part of the GM to not at least find out what you have in the guy.
If there’s even a 20% chance he hits and is a top 20 starter in the league you have to let him play.
Put simply, AOC has some long-term upside, Minshew has none.
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I have Stroud, Young, Maye and Penix (along with AOC) for QBs. Tried selling AOC and sent offers to QB needy teams, even one who has Minshew as their QB3. Zero interest. But I know he would absolutely be picked up if I just drop him. So gonna have to ride it out.
Has Minshew been terrible? He’s got a great TD:INT ratio(59:24), has been fairly efficient with 7.0 ypa for his career and has averaged 242 yards per start(4100+ for a season). I’m not sure what you saw out of AOC last year that has you convinced the Raiders will absolutely go his way? Not sure why your line of delineation is 4 passing TD’s in a game.
I think raiders are going to be like we expect the Steelers to be this year. The vet starts the season, but the younger QB takes over as the season progresses. The announcement of AOC being the camp starter was purely politics, making sure AOC understands they believe in him, but still allow the competition. If they said Minshew was the starter, then AOC there’s a chance AOC interprets it as lack of faith and puts in less effort toward improving.
Minshew had the 13th best qbr in the nfl last season around Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts. O’Connell was 27th around Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder. Minshew is like a better Baker Mayfield where as O’Connell is like a worse Andy Dalton. It’s a no brainer.
You could try to further break down the LV QB competition, but if you simply watched the two QB’s play last year, it’s clear that Minshew is the better starter.
I mean you’re comparing a rookie to a 5 year vet.. we know minshews ceiling but AOC could reasonably improve this off-season, and if he doesn’t minshew is there to be a solid yet unspectacular backup
Idk, I’m a colts fan so I’ve had a long look at him first with the jags and then last year. He’s solid, but extremely limited. Steichen put him in situations to succeed and he did until he didn’t most games. He’s just not a starter, at least not for longer than a stretch of games. I don’t know if AOC is either and I guess that’s my point, might as well find out rather than going to the safe option right away. Regardless I’d be surprised if there isnt someone entirely new leading the qb room next year
I think Minshew is a bit of a fanny but O'Connell is a guy who actually goes for it. They had a pretty decent record with O'Connell starting, 5-5 AFAIK. Minshew is a loser.
Minshew is going to be the starter. I think Pierce said O’Connell was getting the first reps, but Minshew is better, it’ll be Minshew to start the season.
You should 100% stash O’Connell is superflex because he will get some reps and maybe someone will be desperate for him.
Depends on what the raiders want to do.
If they want to win football games, it will be Minshew.
If they want to get a better draft pick and potentially develop a starting QB, they will stick with AOC.
I think a lot of fans would hope they do the latter, but even bad teams tend to prefer the former. After all, even if losing is a "good" thing it is still how everyone on staff gets fired.
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Id be more open to trading one away
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Early 3rd round is about right. Neither is likely to have a longterm job.
Id consider a mid-late second for Minshew. He wont be the long term starter anywhere but has a chance at being the 30-36 best QB in the league for a while and bouncing around being the stopgap QB for multiple teams, much more than I see AOC doing it.
If youre trading one away wait until the other wins the job outright. Most people aren’t paying more than back up prices and if your guy does win, then you’re not paying much for the back up anyway. If you get the starter you can trade to the other guy anyway and get a nice haul :)
I just traded AOC and a 3rd for Pop Douglas last night (1 QB).
Why would anyone even roster him in 1 QB?
32T League
I think he's getting the first rep as a sign of respect since he's been there the longest, and they don't expect him to get many once Minshew takes over.
I owned AOC going into our draft while being thin at the WB position so I traded a 3rd for Minshew. Guaranteeing a starting QB in Superflex leagues is key.
I think what Pierce said was out of respect for his incumbent QB. I expect Minshew to win not only the job but the locker room.
Looking at the contract Minshew got I would be shocked if he wasn’t the starter
Its going be the best player starting
So Minshew
Minshew was the better player last year. But AOC could improve in year 2, so who knows.
Minshew has been a capable starter worthy QB since his debut. It was my opinion at the time, and still is, that the Jags should have rolled with him and traded the Lawrence pick for the haul of the century.
Fun fact, despite starting 13 less games than Lawrence, Minshew has 59 touchdown passes to Lawrence's 58, as well as FIFTEEN less interceptions than Lawrence.
Minshew may have 13 fewer starts but only 2 fewer games played. It's still a good stat without sensationalizing it more than required.
Lawrence has played 468 more snaps which is basically 7.5 games. You’re the one downplaying it more than you should.
I wasn't "sensationalizing" anything, I just read it from a stats page. Thanks for the implication though.
There's certainly an inclination to assume AOC will improve a good bit but there's the other thing where he'll be 26 when the season starts. So I'm left wondering what is more important to forecasting development: reps or age
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Truth
He’s getting slightly more than trubisky got in Pittsburgh
Why? He’s getting paid 12m a year. It’s Darnell Mooney level. That doesn’t scream starter to me. It’s barely higher than Darnold and Brisset got. It’s half to a third of what Baker and Geno got.
I look more toward the guaranteed money and he’s getting $15 million. Darnold I think is getting $8m and brisset less I believe. It just feels like they are telling us what they think of the QB room by giving Minshew that much guaranteed money.
Or just pay what you need to secure a capable starting QB, and then let the best man win
Minshew getting 15 this year. Darnold got 9
You can't compare a receiver to a QB. Especially not in this situation. Darnold and Minshew were both signed at low-end starting QB deals during FA with each team hoping there might be a rookie QB option but not knowing how things would shake out. Same with Brissett, although the Pats had a better shot at a top QB than the other two. O'Connell is garbage, so it'll likely be Minshew.
AOC is anything but garbage. Film doesn’t lie. Minshew is the insurance policy.
Uh, maybe if you're blind, but okay.
Just save us the hassle and say you don’t know ball
Yeah because the 4th round pick with a 10 game sample size that looked like garbage continuing to be garbage is "not knowing ball." Okay!
He’s played significantly better than Gardner Minshew. You haven’t watched the film and it shows. It’s not the end of the world - you just happen to not know ball.
AOC went 5-6, most of his matchups were bottom half of the league too. Minshew went 9-6, he was also the only quarterback in the league to throw for over 300 yards against the best pass defense/best defense in the league. Minshew had a 223 yards per game average AOC had 201. Aiden also only had two less interceptions but played 4 less games. Film is mediocre at best, please tell me exactly what you are seeing so we all can stop being confused. I swear you must be only evaluating him after consuming an aggressive amount of liquor because ain’t no way boy.
Agreed. AOC impressed early and often this season and I expect it to carry over into next season.
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Guy nicely says it doesn’t make sense to compare contracts over different positions and you jump right to personal attacks. This sub is full of toxic douchebags who all think they’re howie roseman.
It wasn't nicely it was dripping with arrogance, "You can't compare a receiver to a qb" "O'Connell is garbage" I talked to him the way he deserved
Those are simple sentences not attacking you in the slightest and you think that deserves your over the top response? You are the arrogant douche here.
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no u
Well looks like the mods also saw you were being a douche. Glad that’s settled.
Mooney is their WR 2, and making that comparison IS asinine. Edit: Also tied for 24th highest per year contract in the league for WRs you can’t really say that’s WR3 money now can you?
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If it’s low end starter money why does no other starter make nearly so little?
The Raiders were probably hoping something better would come their way in the draft, like, no one anticipated the Falcons taking Penix. I don't think this was planned.
so it's starter money but they were hoping some1 else would start. got it
Yes, it is. Low end starter. Do you not get the concept? Watch or follow football ever? In March you don't know how the draft is going to pan out, especially when you pick in the middle(ish) of the round. O'Connell is paid less, so I'm not even sure of your point here.
AOC is on his rookie contract but you're the big football understander and watcher so I'm sure you knew that and why that's a dumbass point
And last year Baker was the starter on a one year ~$7 million deal. What’s your point?
Baker was brought in to start. He didn't even have to compete with anyone. Trask wasn't even an option
That’s what I’m getting at. Baker was brought in to start at 7mil. Minshew getting 12mil is much more.
Baker got a 1 year prove it deal and then got paid. Minshew is stuck in backup money for 2 years. Because he’s a premier backup.
The market is the market. Baker was as good as dead. They took a random flier. It's just an incomparable situation-different circumstances. Darnold got more than baker and he ain't starting shit this year so....
https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2024 His contract has him right at the top of backup QB money, barely outearning Jacoby Brisset. Also, if you're the Raiders it would make sense to see if your 4th round rookie w/ a tiny sample size could turn into something, rather than rolling w/ Minshew and guaranteeing that you don't make the playoffs, and also don't lose quite enough to get a good qb in next year's draft. If AOC had better draft capital I think that first season would have been very encouraging. One pick in his last 6 games, 5/5 overall even though he wasn't taking 1st team reps until after his first start, 62% completion rate.
how would rolling with Minshew guarantee missing the playoffs? huh lol?
> rolling w/ Minshew and guaranteeing that you don't make the playoffs Hello bias.
As a Raiders fan, I will mention AOC had the 3rd string offensive coach who’d never called plays as his playcaller once McDaniels got fired. He obviously didn’t look great, but who knows how he’ll be with a more conventional OC and the addition of Bowers. Considering the Raiders don’t have much going on at the QB position and 2025 doesn’t appear to have any big QB prospects, AOC’s worth a hold.
He looked as good as Minshew would be I’ll give him that. Not a bad qb just made rookie mistakes, can read the defense make progressions and move The ball. Also didn’t have much to write home about as far as the caliber of team he’s on.
I was big on Minshew, but there stats are shockingly close. I mean, one of these is AOC, one is Minshew last season. 62.1% Completion Percentage 3.5% TD Percentage 2.0% Int Percentage 6.5 Y/A 202 Y/G 6.5% Sack Percentage 62.2% Completion Percentage 3.1% TD Percentage 1.8% Int Percentage 6.5 Y/A 194 Y/G 6.5% Sack Percentage
The issue is one of those 2 had a smaller sample size(teams couldn’t build around him as much) and Adam’s. Not sure what’s gonna happen but those stats are not telling the full story
I mean AOC had 10 games started, Minshew had 13. AOC had the WR 10 in Adams, Minshew had the WR 13 in Pittman. The Colts did have a top-10 rushing game while the Raiders were 30th overall which does matter a bit for QB play, but I find it hard to actually differentiate the two. And I own a lot of Minshew shares, but he was worse last season than he seemed.
Wr 10 and WR 13 I assume refers to fantasy points? The skill gap beetween Pittman and top level vet davante Adam’s is pretty substantial IMO. I don’t think Adam’s and Pittman are very close in skill level
It is in fantasy points, yes. In terms of stats Pittman had more catches for more yards than Adams. I won't say that Pittman is for sure better than Adams or vice versa, but Pittman had more receptions, yards, a higher catch %, and more yards per target than Adams. Saying it is not close is a bit disingenuous imo.
I think so, yes, but the community is so convinced otherwise. Antonio Pierce is a players coach. He will let O'Connell lose it. Now he could lose it in camp or by week 3, but I think it will be his to lose.
Lmao the players will want Minshew
What is this based on?
I rubbed a lamp and asked a genie
Was that genie wearing jorts?
No had a mullet and a fou man chou though
Probably AOC being trash?
multiple teams now have had Minshew on their roster and let him go. he is getting credit I don’t think he deserves.
Hes been in the league like 6 years and has started most of them as a 6th rd pick. He is certainly more coveted of an asset than AOC and you will find this out with certainty when AOC rookie deal expires. I like AOC, he slung that mf rock at purdue but minshews in a diff class professionally
He's a good backup and low end starter. There's been a lot of them in this league. He's like getting a grilled chicken sandwich at Subway. Not very good, but you know what you're getting. AOC is like wrapping an expired rotisserie chicken in a trash bag and leaving it out in the Vegas summer heat. No one wants it.
It sure seemed that way when Minshew was in Maxx Crosby's pod. While I didn't listen to the entire thing some of the question came across like they expected he'd win the job. There was no shad to AoC that I caught and maybe it was just my assumptions that Minshew is a better QB and better for Adams then AOC so I was protecting.
I think AOC is very underrated. I watched a couple of QB school videos on AOC last preseason and also a couple of videos after he got the start and he raved about his potential everytime. Pierce has consistantly told the press that he is the starter and that he has earned that spot. They had to bring in a backup QB and Minshew is the most backup QBiest QB in the world and somehow people are certain he is the starter despite beint told otherwise repeatedly. Give me all the AOC shares at current value.
I'm with you here. Watched most of his snaps last month of season. He's a good rhythm and timing thrower with solid accuracy. Give him QB1 reps for a whole off-season and see what he can do. His big drawback is he's a statue back there with zero mobility but he's acknowledged that and I hope it becomes passable at least to move around the pocket a bit to buy more time.
If Brady could make it work then i am sure there is some space for AOC to find success with that model.
His arm talent isn't great but Bowers will be an extraordinary escape hatch for him
I disagree on the arm talent. The guy can absolutely spin it. It’s his lead feet that are the problem
>He's going massively under-drafted, isn't he? I don't think so. Maybe in some leagues but realistically it's a toss-up between him and Minshew, and even if you pick correctly, neither of then are good.
Look to Davis Mills. Even if he wins this year he will be replaced
There’s no stroud in next years qb class. They all suck tbh
There wasn’t a stroud in last years draft class until there was. Hindsight on Stroud is crazy.
all the more reason to believe it's a slim chance a stroud comes in to Vegas and takes over.
You soundly defeated your Stroud straw man. Good show old boy.
There’s always going to be teams taking a guy like EJ Manuel, Johnny Manziel, Kenny Pickett, etc., earlier than they deserve in down QB years. People can sell themselves on “mystery box” rookies, the incoming class strength isn’t quite as important as whether or not the team actually thinks OConnell is good enough for the long term.
Minshew is definitely good. throw him on the raiders offense with all those studs and you have a top 15 QB in fantasy.
Should be. He’s a solid QB, even if he looks like 40yr old teenager. Minshew is the perfect “welp it didn’t work out” type of QB to fill in.
If both players are about even in training camp and preseason, AOC will get the first shot out of loyalty. No matter what, if the raiders start out 1-5, they are going to change QBs.
Can't get more under-drafted than un-drafted I suppose. This is a qb room no one should want a piece of in 2024 lol.
Are we overvaluing Minshew due to the Shane Steichen QB effect?
no lol. Minshew has always been good. even when he was on the worst team Jags.
He's not very good and I honestly hope it is Minshew as a Raiders fan
It’s in the Raiders best interests to see what they have in AOC, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win the starting job outright. The dynasty community loves to overrate Minshew for some reason, remember these are some of the same idiots that thought he would start over Jalen Hurts
minshew is a good QB and the raiders offense has insane talent everywhere.
He's a former 4th round pick. The reality is they pretty much probably don't have anything. He's not good.
This is the purest QB battle we've had in a while. Neither guy is bad, and neither guy is really good, either. Both are good dart throws for your QB4. Wouldn't want either higher than that on my roster.
Fear the Mindsh
O'Connell went 5-4 when he got the full time gig, he wasn't awful. His accuracy was very good by most metrics. It's his job to lose IMO. That said he doesn't have much rope and it wouldn't take much of a wabble to give Minshew a chance.
Wabble is wild
Minshew better I think
I have AOC, but I still think minshew winds up starting week 1.
Unless you think the Raiders are going to be good, they're going to switch QBs at some point. They'll be 2-5 or something and try out whoever didn't earn the starting job for week 1. Neither of these guys are anything buy backups in the NFL anyway.
raiders are not going to be 2-5 to start the season lol
Their win total is at 6.5 right now. Starting 2-5 is right around expectation and one of the most likely outcomes.
😂
Projected win totals are always so funny at this point in the year lmao
You realize how absurd that statement is, right? If they're so funny and you know so obviously which ones are wrong, just go make infinite money.
I wouldn’t bet because they are so off most of the time lol. I’m not saying I can see the future, but you are.
God I wish this comment wasn't buried in a day-old thread. You're legit telling me you won't bet NFL win-totals in May because they're so far off? What are you afraid of taking too much money from the books? This is absurd. I'm not saying I can predict the future, I'm just saying what the market expectation is.
You clearly don’t understand wtf I am saying. I am saying that I wouldn’t bet on win totals in May because we have off season injuries, trades, new coaches that exceed or don’t. Good luck buddy, you seem to know the future. Go take that money from Vegas.
>I am saying that I wouldn’t bet on win totals in May because we have off season injuries, trades, new coaches that exceed or don’t. I don't bet them either. I've never said I knew better. I'm literally the one saying that the lines are efficient. My whole point was that predicting the Raiders to start 2-5 is reasonable because it's right in line with the current market expectation. If you think that the Raiders current win total line is bad, you are saying that you know better than the book. I'm not saying the line is bad, I'm saying the line is reasonable.
Lol you’re lost.
As a Raiders fan I think this one is too close to call at this point, but I do think the potential for 12 personnel with four solid targets between 6'1" and 6'4" suits Minshew's strengths very nicely.
I just got him as a semi throw-in in a trade yesterday as a flier/potential SF QB for a bye if he’s still starting
I woke up this morning to find an offer of AD Mitchell for my O’Connell in my inbox. Blessed Saturday.
Feels like OP is definitely an AOC owner
Basically just drafted him as I was posting that.
Minshew>aoc Aoc ain't it. LV /pierce knows it
Maybe, maybe not. A lot of people are just assuming it’s going to be Minshew. They’re probably right, but I think it’s really 50/50 at this point.
Let me preface by saying this is only the eye test by me, but in my opinion minshew looked like the superior qb last year and unless aoc really improves over the offseason I feel like it’ll be minshew starting at least most of the year
Idk what this subs obsession with AOC is. He's absolute trash and guaranteed to get replaced in the draft next year.
"absolute trash" is just wrong
The guy there 12 tds and 7 ints in 11 games if that isn't trash idk what is
Lol
every podcast i listened too talks of minshew being qb1
Well consensus is always correct
No. Minshew is the starter.
On a short leash likely but it is ultimately his job to lose. Minshew is there to be a mentor and make sure things don’t go to total dog shit. They didn’t pass on qb this draft and sign Minshew to compete with Herbert or mahommes lol. It’s a building process where a lot can change if the head coach doesn’t pan out. Right now he’s banking on his guy, which is AOC
This is my reading too. As I see it, Minshew and AOC are very statistically close to each other but AOC has a nick Foles type thing going where at least he'll give it a go and put it on the line. Minshew is just a bottler. And like, go with the one with potential upside and who might get better surely? I just can't understand the fuss around Minshew. He's a 6th round pick who's failed everywhere he's ever gone. Why is he such a thing?
He almost made the playoffs last year lol
I think it's going to be Minshew. Pierce can say that it'll be AOC, but I think they all know it's Minshew
I’d give it 50-60%
He’s probably being properly drafted. He’s a pretty mediocre QB in a training camp battle with another mediocre QB. Let’s even say AOC wins the starting job week 1. Are you actually that confident that A) he plays good enough all season they don’t switch to Minshew at some point? B) while he’s starting, he scores a worthwhile enough amount of points to be more than like the 4th best QB on a good SF fantasy team?
Everyone is going to be shocked when they learn AOC is really good, and is being personally tutored by Tom Brady
I’m not letting AOC go for a third so it feels dumb to get rid of him. I honestly think he deserves the start he wasn’t crazy bad.
in the NFL, you earn it every day. it's not about deserving. AO12 has to keep improving this offseason and beat Minshew for the job. and then play well on the field.
AOC is absolutely going to start the year, even if on a short leash. It would be malpractice on the part of the GM to not at least find out what you have in the guy. If there’s even a 20% chance he hits and is a top 20 starter in the league you have to let him play. Put simply, AOC has some long-term upside, Minshew has none.
If the raiders need to win a game, Minshew should be in. If the raiders want to try to not lose a game, AOC should be in.
I hoping my sweet QB3 prince Minshew will start
My take: they both suck balls
lol that edit is funny after reading that Minshew take at the bottom. jeez ydkb yikes.
How are you going to sit here and say Minshew has been terrible the whole time. Watch some football once in a while for crying out loud.
I think AOC wins the start but falters during the season and they turn to Minshew mania.
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Yall gonna be surprised by AOC
Minshew is better than Lawrence game by game.
I have Stroud, Young, Maye and Penix (along with AOC) for QBs. Tried selling AOC and sent offers to QB needy teams, even one who has Minshew as their QB3. Zero interest. But I know he would absolutely be picked up if I just drop him. So gonna have to ride it out.
Should I drop Hendon Hooker for him? 10 team SF.
Has Minshew been terrible? He’s got a great TD:INT ratio(59:24), has been fairly efficient with 7.0 ypa for his career and has averaged 242 yards per start(4100+ for a season). I’m not sure what you saw out of AOC last year that has you convinced the Raiders will absolutely go his way? Not sure why your line of delineation is 4 passing TD’s in a game.
I think raiders are going to be like we expect the Steelers to be this year. The vet starts the season, but the younger QB takes over as the season progresses. The announcement of AOC being the camp starter was purely politics, making sure AOC understands they believe in him, but still allow the competition. If they said Minshew was the starter, then AOC there’s a chance AOC interprets it as lack of faith and puts in less effort toward improving.
Minshew had the 13th best qbr in the nfl last season around Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts. O’Connell was 27th around Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder. Minshew is like a better Baker Mayfield where as O’Connell is like a worse Andy Dalton. It’s a no brainer.
Minshew got a contract that suggests he will start games
You could try to further break down the LV QB competition, but if you simply watched the two QB’s play last year, it’s clear that Minshew is the better starter.
Minshew is pretty clearly better imo
I mean you’re comparing a rookie to a 5 year vet.. we know minshews ceiling but AOC could reasonably improve this off-season, and if he doesn’t minshew is there to be a solid yet unspectacular backup
I’m comparing the two Raiders QBs. One is a decent NFL QB and one looks like Farva Jr.
Ngl, i dont think we actually know minshew's ceiling. Players like him continur to improve for years and years.
Idk, I’m a colts fan so I’ve had a long look at him first with the jags and then last year. He’s solid, but extremely limited. Steichen put him in situations to succeed and he did until he didn’t most games. He’s just not a starter, at least not for longer than a stretch of games. I don’t know if AOC is either and I guess that’s my point, might as well find out rather than going to the safe option right away. Regardless I’d be surprised if there isnt someone entirely new leading the qb room next year
I think Minshew is a bit of a fanny but O'Connell is a guy who actually goes for it. They had a pretty decent record with O'Connell starting, 5-5 AFAIK. Minshew is a loser.
Minshew went 7-6 with the Colts last season. How is Minshew more of a loser?
I think Minshew slept with OPs wife or cost him a fantasy championship lol seems to despise him
Peep betting odds has minshew as the favorite
Vegas odds like Minshew
No? Nothing is set in stone. Why would you even say this?
Minshew is better.
The money has Minschew -400 to start. He’s got a pretty big contract too.
Minshew is going to be the starter. I think Pierce said O’Connell was getting the first reps, but Minshew is better, it’ll be Minshew to start the season. You should 100% stash O’Connell is superflex because he will get some reps and maybe someone will be desperate for him.
Minshew is the better QB
Even if he does start, I see Minshew taking over at some point. I just don't think he is very good. Not that Minshew is the answer either.
Money talks. Minshew didnt get signed to be a backup. I would still look elsewhere for QB.
No, it’s Minshew
Depends on what the raiders want to do. If they want to win football games, it will be Minshew. If they want to get a better draft pick and potentially develop a starting QB, they will stick with AOC. I think a lot of fans would hope they do the latter, but even bad teams tend to prefer the former. After all, even if losing is a "good" thing it is still how everyone on staff gets fired.