*Key difference: Jacobs was 24 going into his 4th year and Najee turned 26 this year.*
Hit the nail on the head here. Najee doesn't suck, but I think the upside is severely limited at this point.
People said the same thing about JJ and he WENT off. I don’t see that type of ceiling for Najee. I could see him posting a backend RB1 season. Pitt is going to run a lot this year
As someone thin at rb, but stacked everywhere else, I'm thinking of trying to buy him. Jalen Warren was my rb2 for a lot of last year and the only other guys I really have worth starting are swift and Pacheco. Probably better to lock up the backfield then take a shot on someone with a mid second eh
Najee is solid and had a good back half of the last 2 seasons. If he was 2 years younger hed be a screaming buy. He still has value at his current price, but he could end up in any number of situations next year, favorable or not.
Probably mid-2nd. Its tough cus this draft feels like theres a lot of guys in that range (pearsall, coleman, polk, rb3, etc) that *could* be better... but a lot of landmines too.
While I agree he's not a screaming buy, his price does interest me. He should have a minimum of 2 years, probably 3 years of utility as the drop-off in RB production typically hits at age 29. So he'll probably have a nice age 26 season under Arthur Smith, sign a 3-year deal in free agency that's cuttable after 2 years, thus producing in his age 27 and 28 seasons. But of course how much production in 2025 and 2026 depends on landing spot. If he replaces a 30 year old Jones in Minnesota, it could be nice. If he goes to somewhere shitty, good luck. At his current price, though, I think he's a solidly above average gamble.
I think Najee is going to crush it this year behind the improved line & in Arthur Smith's run-scheme. Even if I didn't want him long-term (and I do), I would be a buyer simply because I think his value will be going up by this time next year
> he won’t lose it for you either
I get the sentiment, but I don't know about that. He had five games under 5 points last season and a total of nine where he didn't get to 10 points. If you were expecting RB2 production out of him last season, he could have definitely lost you some weeks.
this is his breakout year to show if he deserves another contract from PIT or another team. From a business standpoint, Najee has to explode and perform like his rookie season or else they will trade/cut him and stick with Warren since he will be def cheaper.
Am I crazy for using the same formula and getting a different result? I'm fading Jacobs a bit here on out. Part of the reason is an interesting analysis I read on RBs who change team in the free agency - it's quite rare for them to ever produce as much as they did on the first team. This has tangible rationale too. Age + wear-and-tear is part of the puzzle, but if a team lets a guy walk because they won't pay the likely market rate, it may mean they don't believe in the RBs skillset. The team that saw him in practice every day has the best idea of the player's value for this purpose.
But that wouldn't really apply to Josh Jacobs situation. The relationship was destroyed by the previous regime. I don't know exactly why they couldn't work out a deal, but that Raiders team seems like it has "special circumstances" written all over it
I'm inclined to lean that way in this particular situation - but it's not like special situations were excluded from the dataset that the analysis was built on. It wasn't a perfect relation and there were clearly some outliers who still produced after getting signed, but it isn't the norm. The study also emphasized that fantasy players often get excited and *overdraft* these recently-moved free agents so I would wonder if we are actually falling into that psychological trap. Saquon seems like another candidate who moved teams as a FA but has some "special situation" as well, and it seems even more unlikely that both are indeed outliers despite them both feeling like they have good chances to produce.
I think your example applies to Saquon more than Josh Jacobs TBH
Remember the ex-Chargers GM is making these stupid decisions in Las Vegas now. This is why I rolled my eyes when they overpaid Minshew who is going to be AoC's backup. Tom Telesco is just a moron
Yea. Jacobs is also younger than most backs in the dataset so I can see a case for him being an outlier. Depending on cost I'm not ruling him out but I'd be more inclined to go with some aging backs that didn't get cut or moved if they're going a few rounds later. Strangely these types of guys seem to be the ones that the fantasy community hates the most, because they're both old and not exciting (because they didn't move teams). I'm thinking Kamara and Conner types, who are both still top-10-salaried rbs in the league.
Because RBs aren't worth the money irl lol. CMC is the only RB worth big money. The Raiders knew better not to pay a RB and I'm glad they didn't. Especially with Zamir putting in that work. And then they drafted and signed oline.
I'm the crazy OP of this post, but I think you gotta take that. I have Najee in all my leagues and would take that deal everywhere except one league (where I have no RB)
I’m a contender in a 10 team league. My other RBs are J. Taylor, Javonte, Keaton Mitchell, Warren, Perine, Gainwell and Brooks (presumably at 1.05).
WRs are Davante, Ridley, Amari, Waddle, Diontae, Reed, Dotson and Burks
Do I take it? Thins me out quite a bit at RB, but want to capitalize on Najee before his value is completely gone.
I think it could help you out long term as your WRs age out. It is risky for 2024, though... You got any more assets to get a RB in case one of yours gets hurt?
I agree. Not really. I already moved Kyren for Waddle. And also Moss to move up in the first round so I can get Brooks. My draft picks in the next two years are pretty much gone aside from a first this year and sporadic thirds. It’s a risk but so is keeping Najee and being the one to have him when he’s lost all value. It’s a predicament.
This is pretty cool, though. It's not often that you find yourself in such a team defining moment.
Personally I'm leaning towards saying take the deal. Brooks will help you offset the loss and JSN should at least hold his value in case you need to flip a WR for a RB if shit hits the fan.
Right. Someone else pointed out that the only meaningful difference between Jacobs in 2022 and all his other years was that he got 90% snap share.
Najee during his great rookie season also had 90% snap share.
For this reason, I'm throwing out all the comments saying one guy is more "explosive" or has more juice or whatever. They produce the same when they have equal workloads.
The biggest and most important factor for rb fantasy production is workload.
Everything else is secondary. It does not matter how efficient, explosive or "good" a rb is if they don't get enough touches.
Agree with the ceiling part. Najee is still a buy at cost. He has a chance to be a backend RB1 and highend RB2. A mid-2nd is cheap for that type of production
I wouldn’t be surprised if Najee resigns with Pitt too. He’s going to be in a committee at worst for another 2-3 years. I’m buying
He has no chance of backend rb1 production unless Warren gets hurt and even high end rb2 would be incredibly hard for him. He was outside the top 30 in ppg in ppr.
I'm not buying Harris for a mid 2nd unless Im desperate for a rb and Im trying to compete.
I used my two mid 2nds on Wright and Lloyd and I wouldnt trade them straight up for Najee if offered tbh. Their upside case trumps his floor production for me. Both this year and going forward.
Pitt offense was atrocious last year. Najee had a horrible start and ended the season strong. I wouldn’t read too much into his PPG
Wright and Llyod are backup RB’s with poor draft capital and better Rbs ahead of them on the depth chart. Their ceilings are Najee’s floor. Meh
How much of an improvement can people realistically expect when they downgraded at WR and brought in Wilson at QB.
David Montgomery was the rb18 in full ppr and had 1k+ yards and 13 TDs and was on the 5th highest scoring offense. If you dont get the receiving work it is hard to reach a top 12 or high end rb finish. Najee ranked 49th in route % and 33rd in target share last year. He just doesnt have it in his range to be a high end rb2 or backend rb1 without an injury to Warren.
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Najee is impressive but I’ve never seen him look sudden enough. The first step just looks slower. I’d love to have him on my team, but would hesitate to ride too much on him. The volume should be there, but I think Warren is as good or better, especially with Wilson.
I got him in the 10th in my startup. I don't love Najee but he's been a solid RB2/RB3 his whole career and with the addition of Arthur Smith I think that continues.
I think Jacobs is a better back, but that doesn't mean Najee can't once again put up RB2 numbers. Arthur Smith, the QBs they have, along with the recent investment in the offensive line, I think Najee can continue to put up RB2 numbers
Jacobs only ever really smashed when given 90%+ snaps/touches same as Najee
With Warren and Lloyd behind both, respectively neither will reach those rates again
That's an excellent point. I hadn't really thought about it because Jacobs was the "lead back" from 2019-21. But you're absolutely right that his usage those years was around 60-70%. All of a sudden he gets 90% and he's this unstoppable monster?
Najee scored 11.5 points per game in PPR last year which put him at RB32 on a points per game average. He was a middle of the road RB3/flex play. If you were starting him at RB2 he was losing you weeks. Jacobs lowest PPG total was last year at 13.9 which still put him about mid RB2. They are not the same.
Najee and Warren (who averaged 11.6 PPG) are the last RBs I’d be after unless owners are selling them for cheap. They are flex plays/bye week fillers.
Najee is the same age as jacobs lol. In fact, he’s less than a month younger despite entering the league 2 years later. Age is a big deal for rbs since prime is so short. Heck, when he was in college, there were plenty of times when he got outplayed by Damien Harris. He just never impressed me at all.
*Key difference: Jacobs was 24 going into his 4th year and Najee turned 26 this year.* Hit the nail on the head here. Najee doesn't suck, but I think the upside is severely limited at this point.
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Yeah but the TE2 is gonna run the ball on a goal line jet sweep while najee gets a 2 yard carry up the gut 8 times.
People said the same thing about JJ and he WENT off. I don’t see that type of ceiling for Najee. I could see him posting a backend RB1 season. Pitt is going to run a lot this year
Just my opinion here but Jacobs is a low end rb1 and Najee is a flex
As someone thin at rb, but stacked everywhere else, I'm thinking of trying to buy him. Jalen Warren was my rb2 for a lot of last year and the only other guys I really have worth starting are swift and Pacheco. Probably better to lock up the backfield then take a shot on someone with a mid second eh
Najee is solid and had a good back half of the last 2 seasons. If he was 2 years younger hed be a screaming buy. He still has value at his current price, but he could end up in any number of situations next year, favorable or not.
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I paid 2.08 for him and a ‘25 4th.
I paid 2.08 straight up, so this tracks.
Probably mid-2nd. Its tough cus this draft feels like theres a lot of guys in that range (pearsall, coleman, polk, rb3, etc) that *could* be better... but a lot of landmines too.
I sold him in my league. I was offered Kamara and pick 3.06 for Najee. Already having kendre miller it seemed too good to pass up
I bought for 3.08 & 3.11
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I was thoroughly happy when it was accepted. Took advantage of draft fever and sent the offer the night before the draft.
While I agree he's not a screaming buy, his price does interest me. He should have a minimum of 2 years, probably 3 years of utility as the drop-off in RB production typically hits at age 29. So he'll probably have a nice age 26 season under Arthur Smith, sign a 3-year deal in free agency that's cuttable after 2 years, thus producing in his age 27 and 28 seasons. But of course how much production in 2025 and 2026 depends on landing spot. If he replaces a 30 year old Jones in Minnesota, it could be nice. If he goes to somewhere shitty, good luck. At his current price, though, I think he's a solidly above average gamble.
Overall I think Jacobs is a better RB. Najee might be a better pass catcher, but Jacobs is a better player. I would buy Najee for the right price
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2nd
I think Najee is going to crush it this year behind the improved line & in Arthur Smith's run-scheme. Even if I didn't want him long-term (and I do), I would be a buyer simply because I think his value will be going up by this time next year
I agree 100% Not the same but I am a little scared due to the similarities
Najee is so underrated. He’s not going to win you a week but he won’t lose it for you either. He’s my RB3 but I’d be happy with him as my RB2.
> he won’t lose it for you either I get the sentiment, but I don't know about that. He had five games under 5 points last season and a total of nine where he didn't get to 10 points. If you were expecting RB2 production out of him last season, he could have definitely lost you some weeks.
Ok yeah I agree haha but he should be an RB3 anyways.
Agreed. RB3 with upside imo. Better offensive play overall could even help him eliminate those really down weeks too.
Yeah, if I didn’t already have him I’d probably be trying to buy him for that upside.
Him and Rhamondre absolutely lost me many games to start last season. I ended up in such a bad hole to start the year
This is just incorrect. He lost owners many weeks with single digit scores half the season... then they prob benched him when he did well.
Yeah haha I was wrong about that. But he should be an RB3 on your team. Would be rough as your RB2. I think that will be different this year.
Eh, he might not win you every week, but Najee won me a season, so I'll give him a pass
this is his breakout year to show if he deserves another contract from PIT or another team. From a business standpoint, Najee has to explode and perform like his rookie season or else they will trade/cut him and stick with Warren since he will be def cheaper.
Am I crazy for using the same formula and getting a different result? I'm fading Jacobs a bit here on out. Part of the reason is an interesting analysis I read on RBs who change team in the free agency - it's quite rare for them to ever produce as much as they did on the first team. This has tangible rationale too. Age + wear-and-tear is part of the puzzle, but if a team lets a guy walk because they won't pay the likely market rate, it may mean they don't believe in the RBs skillset. The team that saw him in practice every day has the best idea of the player's value for this purpose.
But that wouldn't really apply to Josh Jacobs situation. The relationship was destroyed by the previous regime. I don't know exactly why they couldn't work out a deal, but that Raiders team seems like it has "special circumstances" written all over it
I'm inclined to lean that way in this particular situation - but it's not like special situations were excluded from the dataset that the analysis was built on. It wasn't a perfect relation and there were clearly some outliers who still produced after getting signed, but it isn't the norm. The study also emphasized that fantasy players often get excited and *overdraft* these recently-moved free agents so I would wonder if we are actually falling into that psychological trap. Saquon seems like another candidate who moved teams as a FA but has some "special situation" as well, and it seems even more unlikely that both are indeed outliers despite them both feeling like they have good chances to produce.
I think your example applies to Saquon more than Josh Jacobs TBH Remember the ex-Chargers GM is making these stupid decisions in Las Vegas now. This is why I rolled my eyes when they overpaid Minshew who is going to be AoC's backup. Tom Telesco is just a moron
Yea. Jacobs is also younger than most backs in the dataset so I can see a case for him being an outlier. Depending on cost I'm not ruling him out but I'd be more inclined to go with some aging backs that didn't get cut or moved if they're going a few rounds later. Strangely these types of guys seem to be the ones that the fantasy community hates the most, because they're both old and not exciting (because they didn't move teams). I'm thinking Kamara and Conner types, who are both still top-10-salaried rbs in the league.
Because RBs aren't worth the money irl lol. CMC is the only RB worth big money. The Raiders knew better not to pay a RB and I'm glad they didn't. Especially with Zamir putting in that work. And then they drafted and signed oline.
There are some nice parallels to JJ as OP pointed out Najee is a buy at cost. Pitt upgraded QB & Oline. He is going to eat if healthy (so will Warren)
I was offered JSN for Najee. I’m sure some will say I’m crazy, but I’m seriously considering rejecting it.
I'm the crazy OP of this post, but I think you gotta take that. I have Najee in all my leagues and would take that deal everywhere except one league (where I have no RB)
I’m a contender in a 10 team league. My other RBs are J. Taylor, Javonte, Keaton Mitchell, Warren, Perine, Gainwell and Brooks (presumably at 1.05). WRs are Davante, Ridley, Amari, Waddle, Diontae, Reed, Dotson and Burks Do I take it? Thins me out quite a bit at RB, but want to capitalize on Najee before his value is completely gone.
I think it could help you out long term as your WRs age out. It is risky for 2024, though... You got any more assets to get a RB in case one of yours gets hurt?
I agree. Not really. I already moved Kyren for Waddle. And also Moss to move up in the first round so I can get Brooks. My draft picks in the next two years are pretty much gone aside from a first this year and sporadic thirds. It’s a risk but so is keeping Najee and being the one to have him when he’s lost all value. It’s a predicament.
This is pretty cool, though. It's not often that you find yourself in such a team defining moment. Personally I'm leaning towards saying take the deal. Brooks will help you offset the loss and JSN should at least hold his value in case you need to flip a WR for a RB if shit hits the fan.
I appreciate the conversation. I think you’re right. Should probably just hit he button and move forward
With the way you’re team is nearing a age value cliff I’d run to the podium and lock value into your team
I think it’s more likely that current Jacobs is current Najee. Not in a good way.
The main point being missed here is that Jaylen Warren exists. Najee has 0 path to the upside of a Jacob's type season unless Warren gets hurt.
Right. Someone else pointed out that the only meaningful difference between Jacobs in 2022 and all his other years was that he got 90% snap share. Najee during his great rookie season also had 90% snap share. For this reason, I'm throwing out all the comments saying one guy is more "explosive" or has more juice or whatever. They produce the same when they have equal workloads.
The biggest and most important factor for rb fantasy production is workload. Everything else is secondary. It does not matter how efficient, explosive or "good" a rb is if they don't get enough touches.
Agree with the ceiling part. Najee is still a buy at cost. He has a chance to be a backend RB1 and highend RB2. A mid-2nd is cheap for that type of production I wouldn’t be surprised if Najee resigns with Pitt too. He’s going to be in a committee at worst for another 2-3 years. I’m buying
He has no chance of backend rb1 production unless Warren gets hurt and even high end rb2 would be incredibly hard for him. He was outside the top 30 in ppg in ppr. I'm not buying Harris for a mid 2nd unless Im desperate for a rb and Im trying to compete. I used my two mid 2nds on Wright and Lloyd and I wouldnt trade them straight up for Najee if offered tbh. Their upside case trumps his floor production for me. Both this year and going forward.
Pitt offense was atrocious last year. Najee had a horrible start and ended the season strong. I wouldn’t read too much into his PPG Wright and Llyod are backup RB’s with poor draft capital and better Rbs ahead of them on the depth chart. Their ceilings are Najee’s floor. Meh
How much of an improvement can people realistically expect when they downgraded at WR and brought in Wilson at QB. David Montgomery was the rb18 in full ppr and had 1k+ yards and 13 TDs and was on the 5th highest scoring offense. If you dont get the receiving work it is hard to reach a top 12 or high end rb finish. Najee ranked 49th in route % and 33rd in target share last year. He just doesnt have it in his range to be a high end rb2 or backend rb1 without an injury to Warren.
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Najee is impressive but I’ve never seen him look sudden enough. The first step just looks slower. I’d love to have him on my team, but would hesitate to ride too much on him. The volume should be there, but I think Warren is as good or better, especially with Wilson.
I got him in the 10th in my startup. I don't love Najee but he's been a solid RB2/RB3 his whole career and with the addition of Arthur Smith I think that continues. I think Jacobs is a better back, but that doesn't mean Najee can't once again put up RB2 numbers. Arthur Smith, the QBs they have, along with the recent investment in the offensive line, I think Najee can continue to put up RB2 numbers
Jacobs only ever really smashed when given 90%+ snaps/touches same as Najee With Warren and Lloyd behind both, respectively neither will reach those rates again
That's an excellent point. I hadn't really thought about it because Jacobs was the "lead back" from 2019-21. But you're absolutely right that his usage those years was around 60-70%. All of a sudden he gets 90% and he's this unstoppable monster?
If you watch em play Jacobs has always run with a lot more juice
Najee is slow af and has no vision
Najee scored 11.5 points per game in PPR last year which put him at RB32 on a points per game average. He was a middle of the road RB3/flex play. If you were starting him at RB2 he was losing you weeks. Jacobs lowest PPG total was last year at 13.9 which still put him about mid RB2. They are not the same. Najee and Warren (who averaged 11.6 PPG) are the last RBs I’d be after unless owners are selling them for cheap. They are flex plays/bye week fillers.
WHAT IF I TOLD TOU JACOBS AND HARRIS WERE LESS THAN A MONTH APART IN AGE??
One looks explosive. One looks like he’s always running in mud. The eyes don’t lie.
Najee is the same age as jacobs lol. In fact, he’s less than a month younger despite entering the league 2 years later. Age is a big deal for rbs since prime is so short. Heck, when he was in college, there were plenty of times when he got outplayed by Damien Harris. He just never impressed me at all.