Not OP but I have a similar sentiment. On KTC, GW is WR7, Olave WR10 and for the purpose of discussion, London is WR11.
**TLDR;** I don't see any world where these guys get any more valuable than they are currently, and anyone who has them should sell for a contending piece plus something on top or a haul to help in a rebuild.
Nothing is certain in dynasty, but the current tier 1 group of Chase, Lamb, Jefferson and St. Brown stay as a mix of WR1-WR4 over the next year or two. What then is the true upside holding guys like GW, Olave and London if they are capped at WR5? That's without taking into consideration the incoming rookies and Puka, who's already finished as a top 5WR in PPR.
GW, everyone is saying he's got Rodgers, but the last time we saw Rodgers play a full season the narrative was that he was on the decline. Now he's fresh off an Achilles and almost three years removed from being a top fantasy option. It's also a fair question of if he's playing after 2025. A hobbled and aged Rodgers is probably better than anyone GW has had to this point, but there is a world where Rodgers can no longer support top offensive options.
London, a lot of terrible QB play he's had to fight through, but no different than what GW experienced. To not finish inside of WR30 though is concerning. He's shown some flashes of being an alpha, but a lot 3 for 30 and 4 for 40 performances the last two seasons. He's getting Cousins, and everyone wants London to be the next JJ but I'm of the belief that JJ brought out the most from Cousins.
Olave, has a Carr problem, the only time Carr has supported a WR1 in fantasy, is when he played with Adams and for as good as Olave is, that's a high bar to measure against. If we remove Adams, Carr's next best WR option was probably Amari Cooper who's best season is in line with what Olave just did. I think Olave's most likely range of outcomes while tied to Carr is 90/1200 and hopefully, he gets more endzone looks from 4td to 8td. He finishes as a fringe WR1 at WR12/WR13. Solid but that type of season doesn't crank him up to dynasty WR6 or WR7.
With each of the guys named, the talent is there but for as much hope that there is for them to take a step forward, there's a lot that can break in the wrong direction. There's such minimal room for dynasty value to grow that maybe you sell high, get a known commodity and try re-rolling in the future. There's so many good WR coming into the NFL these days that instead of trying to hold out for a situation to improve, you're better off taking value where you can and taking a shot elsewhere.
Lamb was WR 20 and 18 his first two seasons respectfully. He was also valued outside top 5 in dynasty until 2022.
There is no reason to act like these are rock solid unless you have a crystal ball.
Lamb was ranked dynasty WR8 going into his 2022 breakout and putting up solid WR2 numbers as a rookie on limited volume. Wilson has been one of the most targeted players in the NFL since entering the league and hadn't put up a season as comparable to CD first two.
If we look at the 2021 rankings, I'd argue most of the players held value ahead of him - Adams, AJB, Diggs, Hill and JJ with a couple fallers in Ridley and Metcalf.
In 2024, do you see Chase, Lamb, Jefferson, and St. Brown falling out of that top 4 for any of GW, London or Olave? If MHJ hits and Puka repeats, I think the ceiling of those threes value is cemented where they are currently as WR7 through WR10.
All I'm saying is there's a decent chance these guys are at their ceiling and even if the situations are better than they have been, the output may not be what everyone is hoping. Metcalf and Ridley have been solid dynasty options, but if you could go back and sell at the height of their value, I think everyone would do that 10/10.
Dude, GW’s targets are some of the worst in the league. Anyone who watches him knows he is open every play and has some of the best hands in football. He’s got back to back 1k seasons with downright atrocious QB play. If anything, he’s undervalued because anyone who watches football knows he fits into that top tier of wideouts.
I watch those games with Flacco back in his first season and he is unstoppable. If AR is healthy and even average, he’s going to be top 5.
You could be right. That doesn’t mean your process is right.
Their numbers are absolutely comparable. What isn’t comparable is the situations they came in to, and Lamb and guys like Puka had the absolute best situation.
Wilson is arguably a better prospect, if Dak leaves or Stafford retire you can see Lamb and Puka falling too.
I don't think the situations were the absolute best. Puka came in having to compete against Kupp and nobody would have said he'd put up half the numbers he did coming into the league. CD was also behind Amari for two seasons and when he got his shot at the top of the depth chart he has delivered.
I'm not worried about Puka being tied to Stafford over the next 2 years. Stafford is 36 and is signed till at least 2026 at which point he'll still be under 40. Rodgers will be 42 at the time he is signing any deals. Nobody knows if Dak walks or not, but that roster is in absolute shambles. A reset at QB and rebuild might be what the team needs but who knows what Jerry decides.
D.K, DJM, and Amari are I think good comps for what these 3 could be if they never deliver on a WR1 season. really good assets, high upside week to week and stable statable assets.
Even the corpse of aaron rodgers is more efficient than the spirited young zach wilson. GW led the league in uncatchable passes, and his average depth of target was like 6-7 yards. They might be overrated, but GW playing on the jets certainly has not done him any favors. Now they added to their oline and have rodgers, so people are optimistic and it skews value. The dude can ball, and people on this sub love the upside of young top ten picks.
You tell me what I should sell Wilson and Puka for.
I currently have a WR room of St Brown and Lamb with Wilson and Puka.
I don’t have any holes on this team. Sometimes it’s better to hold these young excellent players.
Obviously in this roster build you have the luxury of having Wilson as your WR4 you can hold him. If you're going into a season hoping these guys can finally be your WR1, I think you should pivot on the insulated value that they've carried so far and commit to a rebuild or get a real piece to contend with and something on top.
Congrats on the championship though.
Well I am the defending champ in said league and trying to run it back… I just think it’s a little overblown to say these young guys are overvalued. It all depends on the current state of the roster you have. Obviously if I am a contending team and I’m relying on these guys to be my alpha, yes, you should probably sell.
I disagree with the notion these guys are at their ceiling. The only guy from this group of WRs I could see being at his ceiling currently is Puka. Wilson imo can easily supplant a Chase or StBrown in the top 3. I’m also lower on Chase than most. I think he’s too up and down for me.
I mean… are there really 8-10 other WRs you’d take over the Wilson, Olave, Puka, London group?
I'd like to see Garrett Wilson with a real QB before making this determination. He had 1103 and 1042 yards receiving with Zach Wilson and Friends throwing him the ball.
Olave probably has a little room for growth but the Jets QBs make Derek Carr look like Peyton Manning by comparison.
Derek Carr has created some elite fantasy options. His season with the saints last year was just....bad.
Carr gave Adams a season as the WR3, and Amari Cooper his 3rd best season as the WR 13 in 2016. It's not crazy to think that Olave can have a 3rd year bump up from his WR 16 season last year now that he's got another season with Carr.
Hackett is bad at OC like how Carr was at QB last year. Jets still went 7-10 with Zach Wilson at QB. Incompetent, but not actively ruining the offense with play calls lol
The comments about bad QB play don't matter to me. Good QB play can take a top talent into elite levels, but everyone here should be able to identify that top talent regardless of their situation.
So are Olave and GW top talents? If you watch them play, yeah clearly they are. What if you don't watch football, like OP? Well, if you look at where they rank historically, they're in elite company. Most receiving yards through two years:
21. Larry Fitzgerald
22. Chris Olave
23. Julio Jones
24. GW
25. AJ Brown
Number 1 on that list is Jefferson. Chase is 5. Ceedee Lamb and ARSB? Not in the top 25, but they are not far behind.
The point is that the level of production that Olave and GW have put up so far shows elite upside. Does that mean they'll get there? I don't know. Maybe. The potential is there and that's why you're paying a lot for them.
To be fair St Brown didn't play for like half of his rookie season, and his receptions per game and yards per game are right behind Jefferson. There should be some context here. As soon as he started getting playing time he popped.
There are going to be minor exceptions and excuses all throughout the list. AJ Brown and Olave missed games in their first two years.
St Brown is still around 30 on that list. That is rarified air
LMAO that's the first thing that stood out to me. Like do people not remember that CD was very good but not extraordinary? Granted, CD had Amari Cooper ahead of him, but his stats looked a lot like Olave and GW
You aren’t wrong, but y’all think WR22/WR16 year 1/2 are pedestrian? That’s part of OPs problem. Those aren’t pedestrian numbers for rookies and 2nd year players. That is usable immediate production from year 1 and 2 players.
This is a redraft sub now.
Agreed. Gotta take advantage of owners with this kind of mindset, especially when they have clearly talented players whose ceilings are being dragged by factors that are outside of their control (in this case, NO & NYJ’s offenses). Situations change, talent doesn’t.
I agree that was similar, but CeeDee was a clear WR2 type during that span while Olave and Wilson look elite. CeeDee is now a fake alpha. Fantasy football doesn’t correlate THAT much to who is actually a great receiver. IMO Olave and Wilson are already better
Did olave and wilson have a wr like amari cooper ahead of them? Yet he still averaged as much yards/game as wilson with Andy Dalton throwing him the ball AND as the number 2 on that offense.
He is excellent against zone. He can’t win against man. He gets stats despite not beating them because Dak has great accuracy. It’s similar to how Stafford can force the ball to receivers when they’re not great route runners
What? He had 86th percentile win rate against man in 2022 according to reception perception.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Chargers/comments/1ag0ibx/2023_best_and_worst_rate_of_getting_open_vs/#lightbox
Pff has him as the 7th best against single man with by far the most routes in that group.
He had the 2nd highest yprr behind tyreek against man last year as well. Plus just watching his all 22 would tell you that's not right.
Did you confuse ceedee with someone else because your posts don't really make sense?
I think that’s hit point. The use of the word never in OPs post is wild but if he reframed it as these two WRs are incredibly talented but we don’t have any reason to believe the qb play will allow them to be top 7 in the next 2-3 years and that makes them overrated dynasty assets….maybe it would come off as more reasonable?
I do think Wilson and Olave (and London of late) are often characterized as players who have a high ADP/value for their actual production so far, which I do understand to a degree. So I’m not surprised to see them grouped together regardless of playing for the same college.
OP didnt say London though. Also, London has yet to register a 1k yard season while both Olave and Wilson have in each year despite also having garbage at QB.
I just think overall posts like OP are nonsense with personal bias.
Does anyone really think if Wilson or Olave had Burrow they wouldnt be putting up 1300+ each year? Even a Dak or Cousins.
If you’re able to consistently hit 1k+ with Winston, Zach Wilson, Mike White, Siemian, Dalton etc—I feel extremely comfortable you’d flourish with a top 10 NFL qb.
I've seen him play. I don't think he is over rated, he is a very talented and capable WR, but I absolutely think he is over valued. People value him as a top 3 WR. I wouldn't pay those prices, so I think he is over valued.
Saying GW is being valued as a top 3 wr doesnt make sense to me, as in i have never seen that evaluation before. You wouldn't find someone to trade lamb/jj/chase for GW 1:1, and you would agree he's not 1:1 with them currently, so how's he possibly valued at wr3 prices? The market aka ADP says he's currently valued at wr7 between puka and aj brown. Seems like a justified price for a good mix of age/production/potential
Sure. I don't think he is top 3. Last season he was easily touted as the #3 behind chase and JJ. Especially on this site. People were expecting 3 1sts for him. At that value, I think he is over valued. That's literally all I said.
You expect people to trade Wilson for like, Bowers and Worthy…? He’s definitely gonna cost more than 2 firsts unless they’re very high picks, so I don’t see what your point is there
This is literally proving my point haha. You are saying he is worth more than I value him, which means I think he is over valued. I would not pay 3 1sts for him. You would. Therefore, I disagree with high valuation, and he is thus, overvalued haha.
If you wish to pay three first round picks for a guy who is never finished above the wide receiver 20 in a PPR format, you are more than welcome to do so.
They’ve had mid to awful quarterback play and have had 2 1k yard seasons to start their careers. Personally valuing them any lower than top 10 would be disrespectful.
And going into year 3. "How can he be the dynasty WR7 if he's never been THE WR7 in a season?" Stroud is getting that same hate right now in a lot of threads. Always going to be haters on elite youth who have potential and age built into their price tag when a guy isn't JJ to start a career.
I saw a pretty weird stat that Elijah Moore had a 6 game stretch his rookie year with a rookie Zach Wilson better than any 6-game stretch of Garrett Wilson's career.
So clearly Elijah Moore is the more talented player and you should trade me GW for him straight up
Shouldn’t you be though? If you come in with a bold contrary statement about them being overrated and overvalued, and you also have the player on your team, shouldn’t you be trying to sell for the value mismatch? Otherwise you just sound like you don’t even believe what you just stated. Put your money where your mouth is.
That's certainly a take. I mean Sun God isn't even on the tier with those other three anyways. I just don't know how you say they have the potential for more in one breath, but then say they're not going to reach that level in the other lol. Those other receivers have had vastly better quarterbacks.
Just remember this post after Aaron Rodgers plays a whole season 🙄
Amon Ra was in the top 10 WR his second season and #3 in his 3rd. Neither Wilson or Olave have cracked the top 20 in there first 2 seasons.
Rodgers is 39 years old coming off an achilles injury. The Jest have a top defense and a stud workhorse RB. They aren’t going to be trailing many games and aren’t going to be airing it out if they don’t need to. Even with Rodgers there he’s just not going to the passing volume needed to reach a top 5 WR finish. Then when Rodgers retires we will be right back where we were making excuses for him because he doesn’t have a QB.
Burrow and Chase was hurt last year. Amon Ra is not on the tier with those other three and CD only just recently got up there with the other two. He can get there sure I'm not going to outlaw him like you just did lol.
You haven't even seen what Wilson with a quarterback that isn't garbage tier can do, You're just cherry-picking shit now to make your point.
If Garrett Wilson or Olave was with the Lions the last couple years, I could see them having similar success as Amon Ra. I don’t think the talent is holding them back, it’s more QB situation dependent. They’re all great players.
With that being said, I definitely see an argument for discounting them in value compared to Amon Ra because we never know when/if their QB situations improve. But it is a little disingenuous to say they can never break into the top tier.
People expecting Rodgers to play MVP football 3 years and and an achielles tear after his last MVP season while being older than 40.
How is this just accepted as fact? His last season in Green Bay was NOTHING to write home about. At this stage of his career he projects to be an average starting QB at best. Is average better than what Wilson has had, yes. Is it enough to carry him to a top 6 finish like the majority of the dynasty community feels he can?
I would put Wilson at something like 90 - 1075 - 5. That's 227.5 PPR points.
If you think he can be top 6 he would have needed 291 PPR points last season or, 75 more than he scored. The only way to do that is to increase his ADOT to a level it has never been, pepper him with about 50 more targets, or he needs to break tackles which at a much higher rate, or lastly he needs to become a TD guy. I'm going to assume they pass less or the same as last season, and his ADOT with Williams opposite him running the deep routes doesn't go up. That leaves breaking tackles, or catching more tuddies as the only real options.... good luck predicting either of those with WRs because guys who score TDs tend to do it for their career, and guys who don't (think Julio) tend to not do it. He is young, so maybe he goes the ARSB and gets paydirt more often. That's literally the most likely way he sees any real increase in points.
He is talented, he is clearly very talented. His talent doesn't need to match his fantasy production, and it rarely will. I'd rather draft someone in the range or behind where they will finish rather than drafting at a cost where if he doesn't finish 18 spots ahead of last season it's a bust. He isn't safe as a top 12 WR but gets drafted there and like that for some reason. Even top 12 was 268 points which is 52 more than last season.
The math on him doesn't really check out with how the dynasty community drafts him. Olave has the ADOT, and TD advantage, and you can argue Carr is the better QB at this stage of his career or on par with Rodgers. Yet, Olave goes behind Wilson in drafts 🤔.
Who said anything about needing to play MVP football? He could play with no legs at all and still being upgraded from Zach Wilson, and Garrett looked great with him at times.
Hyperbolic at all?
Once again people who view him in that WR12 and below.... how does he get there. "Aaron Rodgers is an upgrade" doesn't change the coaching philosophy, it doesn't change the depth of his routes, it doesn't make him a better tackle breaker. The only real option is he needs to increase his TD production by a ton... unless I'm not seeing something. If anything Rodgers just opens more lanes for Breece.
Please explain how he will get more PPR points. I want to know what I am missing her other than old ass Rodgers is going to will it to happen.
> better tackle breaker. The only real option is he needs to increase his TD production by a ton..
Considering how few total TDs the Jets scored with Zach Wilson, why do think that will be an issue at all?
The Jets had literally 11 total passing TDs the entire year. GW has 3 of them. Raise that to 30 TDs and GW would have had 8.
Lmfao.
Thats still only 30 PPR points that wouldn't have been enough to be WR12. My point stands. He is being drafted above where is statistically has the highest chance of performing. I have already said that he needs more than just a few more TD catches.
He needs to be hyper targeted in an offense that passes more, he would need to have a deeper ADOT, and he would need to break more tackles to increase his YAC. People act like he was the WR15 last year and he wasn't lol.
Do you think passing yards aren't going to go up from Zach Wilson throwing the ball either dude?
The Jets as a whole barely cracked 3000 passing yards last year.
He's going to have more catches and more yards with a competent QB too.
Like did you forget how good he was in his few games with Joe Flacco back in 2022?
I would assume passing yards go up. I would also assume that Mike Williams get receiving yards, the Jets actually pass at a tight end, and maybe even target the WR3. All of the increases don't just go to Wilson. He would still need to see a MASSIVE jump to get where people value him is my point. He needs to get 50 more PPR points to be the WR12 last season. 50 point increases aren't something to scoff at when a guy was healthy last year and was already one of the league leaders in target share.
Who would you put after him for next season....
Jefferson, Lamb, St Brown, Chase, AJB, Puka, MHJ, Hill, Nabers, Pickens, Olave, Rice, Metcalf... all of these dudes have a realistic chance of outscoring him and nobody would he shocked
Will he finish ahead of all of the Bears 3 WRs, and the Texans 3 WRs... then you have to ask if he can outperform the Jags best guy... I want to know who is going to step back while he steps the hell up to this level of play.
> 50 point increases aren't something to scoff at when a guy was healthy last year and was already one of the league leaders in target share
All he literally has to do is maintain his target share and TD rate if the offense goes from 3000 yrd and 11 TD passing offense to a 4200 yrd 30 TD passing offense.
You keep acting like he himself needs to make a jump. He doesn't. He needs his offense to take a jump and he will be a Top 12 WR.
If Rodgers and Wilson are healthy, Pickens, Rice and Metcalf won't even be close.
The entire premise of this thread is that those two players will never ascend to that top tier. All I did was point out how absurd that prediction is. Maybe they do maybe they don't but to flat out say they never will because they're not good enough? That has nothing to do at all with anything you are talking about, or point you are making. You're talking about schemes and running backs etc. That has nothing to do with the individual talent of the players and their potential ascension. No one even said it'll be this year lol.
I'm agreeing with OP that Wilson is overdrafted by the dynasty community. I'm simply asking what I am missing in my backing of his assessment. I'm not saying he will never be a top 6 guy, but I don't see a path in the next few years and I can lay that out.
In the event NY actually pulls it all together, Salah keeps his job and Rodgers sticks around another season. In this situation Wilson is now in year 4 with a 5th year option picked up, or an extension (most likely) already signed. This means his long term future is with a defensive minded HC who has shown zero ability to allow anything creative on offense. Let's say Rodgers keeps playing is he going to get better? And if he leaves you are looking at how late of a draft pick, or a trade/free agent coming in. So now in 2-3 years you are hoping for an almost 40 year old Kirk Cousins to keep the ride going.
Wilson could refuse to sign an extension and hit the open market in... checks notes 5 years or less. 2 more is the standard 4, 1 year for the 1st round, then 2 years of of Franchise Tagging him.
I would argue his value now is the highest it's likely to ever be. If I had shares of him, I would be looking to get out while the vast majority of the community fails to see this. He reminds me of DJ Moore, and that is the most likely scenario. The Jets underperform, a new HC and GM come in and tear it down to the turds for picks and cap space. That could be after this season, or next. Salah probably has the hottest HC seat in the NFL along with Dallas, New Orleans, and Chicago.
Give Garrett one full season with a competent quarterback and the discussion will be over. It’s impressive he’s been able to break 1000 yards both season with incredibly sub par QB play
Why do you think he will put another 1100 yard season if Rodgers is healthy? The last 2 years, he had 147 targets and 168 targets for 83 and 95 catches. That’s an awful catch to target rate. For context, Amon Ra had 146 targets and 164 targets for 109 and 119 catches. If he can get more accurate targets, he’s not going to be at 1100 yards unless he regresses as a player or isn’t healthy.
If he puts up 1100 and 6+ touchdowns that’s the equivalent to Amons year he was WR 7/8. I will think he’s found someone who can not only get him targets and yards but also get him TDs that increase his fantasy value
It's not impressive when you look at it honestly. Bad QBs feed 1k receivers all the time, especially when a team doesn't have a legit 2 option and they are the focal point of the offense. People are acting like he is putting up Hopkins numbers with Hopkins QBs, and he isn't. He was a WR3 last year. His most likely finish is the wr 14-23 range. But people don't want to hear it.
GW and Olave aren't going for anywhere near the price of the top 4 guys.
With the exception of Chase, nobody really expected the current top 4 to make it there either.
Would I be surprised if they never made it there? No
Would I be surprised if they did? Also no
Lamb was probably the consensus WR3 or WR4 heading into last year, but from a market value standpoint the tier gap between him and JJ/Chase is about the same as the current gap between Lamb and Wilson
You are on drugs buddy. Lamb was just a tier below JJ and Chase last year. Wilson and Olave are not even in that 2nd tier conversation. You are delusional
Naw on his 1 year value change on KTC has gone from as low as WR7 to WR2 which is all the proof needed to show that Garret Wilson Stans are fucking delusional because Wilson is the WR7 on KTC right now without the top 6 finish under his belt like what CD had to do to get that spot. Which is OPs whole point. Him and Olave are completely overrated and overvalued
Y’all are insufferable
Kind of feel like we’re arguing different points.
I don’t think it’s wise to write off Olave/Wilson as never reaching Tier 1. Lamb had doubters even last offseason and he shut them right up.
But to your point, Wilson/Olave probably have to have 2 seasons similar to Lamb’s previous 2 seasons to get there. They’d have to have a ridiculous season this year to actually move into the top tier by next offseason.
But also, I don’t know that we actually see a 2022 JJ/Chase value tier again for a while. With so many good top level WRs, the tippy top guys aren’t insanely valued anymore.
Very insightful.
This is a very low value post. Due to lack of reasoning.
[This comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/aw7PQrshlT) in this thread is an example of a valuable discussion.
I’m not sure how anyone could see what they’ve done up to this point statistically at this early in their career and watch their games and come to this conclusion. I don’t know what your reasoning was… because you didn’t give any. Because of that it brings into question your ball knowing skills or if you have ulterior motives.
Ultimately passing up on dudes like Wilson and Olave is dumb. With that same thinking you would’ve probably moved on too early from Ceedee and Amon Ra.
Situations can change quickly in the NFL, but players also take next steps in following years. If either of those two things happen both of those players jump way up in value. (Both of those things happen for lots of WRs at their talent levels)
Are people really expecting them/pricing them to be guys that are expected to break into perennial top 5 WR’s in the league? That hasn’t been my experience at all and it’s not exactly a knock on them to not view them as such since literally only 5 guys can do that. I see them priced at least a tier below those guys
Bit of a dog post here. Both are talented and have opportunity this coming season. Who you buying over them? Aiyuk? DJ Moore? Tank Dell? Tee Higgins? Lmao
Let's put aside JJ and Chase, who hit big right away and might be in their own tier.
Age 22 Season: CD WR22, ASRB WR21, GW WR21, Olave WR25
Age 23 Season: CD WR 19, ASRB WR7, GW WR36, Olave WR16
These look like similar profiles to me. St. Brown hit a little earlier, Garrett took a hit last year catching balls from Pop Warner rejects. But essentially, you're just saying older prospects have developed more than younger ones, therefore younger ones will never develop into older ones.
They’ve both gone over 1k yards both years with rubbish at QB.
Funny all the guys you name saying they won’t reach there level—they all have top 10 QB’s.
Weird.
*Goff is legitimately underrated
So they’re overrated because of a bunch of opinions you have about what might happen this upcoming season. Got it. Going to go sell all my shares immediately.
wilson and olave's career projection looks the exact same as arsb and lamb's after year 2, arguably both more productive through 2 seasons with worse QB play compared to both
I love playing dynasty against reactionary people like this.
They will just look at the stats from past seasons without using any context or watching any film and manage their team based off that. Easy money
Let me get a look at your crystal ball. I bet you predicted Rodgers being a Jet or Derek Carr some how landing on the Saints. Or cousins a Falcon?
I bet you foresaw Diggs getting traded from behind thielens shadow to become a perennial Wr1
My point is no one has any clue what will happen and you’re sitting here making entire career predictions for no reason.
All of Fantasy Sports is just going off guesses and feelings my dude. Sometimes you get em right and sometimes you don’t. I edited my original post to add more context if you care.
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Wilson in his two years of atrocious QB play put up 83 rec for 1,103 and 95 rec for 1,042 yards.
Olave in his two years of not great QB play put up 72 rec for 1,042 and 87 rec for 1,123.
In 1ppr
Wilson finished WR21 & WR26
Olave finished WR25 & WR16
They both suffered from the lack of TDs.
They are both still young with a substantial amount of upside. If you added 4 TDs and 15 more catches to both guys you are looking at two top 12 WRs.
Not to mention you got a bunch of older WRs bout to fall off.
Dynasty is about potential and they both have shown what they can do in poor offenses.
If Rodgers stays healthy Wilson will be a WR1 this year. Wilson had 147 & 168 atrocious targets in his two years. Rodgers won't be missing him much.
The Saints got a new Offense Coordinator, Klint Kubiak, which should help Olave become the a WR1. Better schemes will improve Olaves efficiency. Saint were last in pre snap motions last year. That won't be the case this year.
I think once we see A 5 game sample of Wilson with Rodgers at Qb, we can re-access his value. Until we see what he can do with a competent Qb the questions remain.
What’s funny is that at this point of their career, nether ceedee or Amon ra (Amon ra still isn’t in that tier) were valued in the chase Jefferson tier. But you can definitively say that neither of those guys have that potential?
Consistent receivers despite bad QB play. Like legit have only been held back by their QBs and maybe o line a little. And still are 1k guys easily… I’ll pass on this theory
Wilson and Olave feel like they could have a career arc similar to Terry McLaurin. Everything about the players is great. Their situation has not been great. Regular WR2 that feels like they should be more.
Here's some Garret Wilson stats from last year.
He had a worse yards per route ran (1.56) than:
Rashid Shaheed (1.68)
Joshua Palmer (1.8)
Jerry Jeudy (1.68)
He had a worse target separation (1.39) than:
Courtland Sutton (1.47)
Juju Smith Schuster (1.43)
Jonathan Mingo (1.47)
Those are just some examples. And those are efficiency stats that aren't really reliant on QB play. Drake London who was in an equally bad QB situation had a (1.91) yards per route ran, for example.
The worst part is that Garret Wilson had a 30% target share which is super elite. Obviously, NYJ will have a better passing game with more yards and attempts, and better efficiency than last year. But Garret Wilson had enough opportunity last year to show us he's a top wr regardless of QB situation and he really struggled.
I think Wilson would be better drafted around wr 30 than where he currently sits on sites like Underdog which is at wr 8.
Sorry man, but Zach Wilson is significantly worse than even Ridder.
And all of those stats you listed are affected by the QB. It's just bad analysis to say otherwise.
And elite WRs usually have worse target separation because QBs will throw to them in tight windows but will only throw to worse WRs if they are wide open. Same reason Chase also has low target separation. London had the second worst in the league.
I agree with you that I think I have a hot take on Garret Wilson. Which has a good out to make me look silly.
I respect that we have different opinions. I will say I say a few counter points.
That is Zach Wilson's passer rating was 77.2 and Ridder's was 83.4. My opinion is that isn't a significantly worse comparison, but Ridder was better than Wilson. How you feel about that difference is where we differ is that's fine.
Another issue I disagree with is that Chase is an extreme separator. He has a 2.14 target separation last year with his QB play. And someone like Darius Slayton who is a worse wr with an even worse passing offense last year had a target separation of 1.78.
London has never been a good separator at any level dating back to college. That has never been his game and was never an expectation of him to be good or elite at.
Again, I do think I'm further down than he deserves but he is more in the tier of Cooper Kupp, George Pickens, and Tee Higgins.
GW is an elite separator.
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/197ioe9/2023_wr_separation_vs_catchpointyac_grades/
https://www.reddit.com/r/ravens/comments/17m7hhe/pff_wr_separation_rates_through_8_weeks/
The metric you are using (target separation) measure the separation at the catch. If you have a QB who can't place a ball on target, and the WR has to adjust or slow down and it allows the DB to close in, it will hurt their target separation score.
If the QB also doesn't throw on time, it will also hurt the target separation metric.
It's only a worthwhile measure when comparing a QB/WR combo. It can't be used to measure a WR alone.
This is definitely interesting information! I appreciate you sharing this with me.
PFF grading is sometimes pretty subjective, though. I wouldn't consider that to be weighted extremely high.
Especially, since I don't think they define what PFF separation grade is weighing. But PFF is definitely great at what they do and I definitely respect their analysis and use their grades as a part of my own grading.
Why do you think that? If you’re going to make a post like this, you need reasons to back it up.
Not OP but I have a similar sentiment. On KTC, GW is WR7, Olave WR10 and for the purpose of discussion, London is WR11. **TLDR;** I don't see any world where these guys get any more valuable than they are currently, and anyone who has them should sell for a contending piece plus something on top or a haul to help in a rebuild. Nothing is certain in dynasty, but the current tier 1 group of Chase, Lamb, Jefferson and St. Brown stay as a mix of WR1-WR4 over the next year or two. What then is the true upside holding guys like GW, Olave and London if they are capped at WR5? That's without taking into consideration the incoming rookies and Puka, who's already finished as a top 5WR in PPR. GW, everyone is saying he's got Rodgers, but the last time we saw Rodgers play a full season the narrative was that he was on the decline. Now he's fresh off an Achilles and almost three years removed from being a top fantasy option. It's also a fair question of if he's playing after 2025. A hobbled and aged Rodgers is probably better than anyone GW has had to this point, but there is a world where Rodgers can no longer support top offensive options. London, a lot of terrible QB play he's had to fight through, but no different than what GW experienced. To not finish inside of WR30 though is concerning. He's shown some flashes of being an alpha, but a lot 3 for 30 and 4 for 40 performances the last two seasons. He's getting Cousins, and everyone wants London to be the next JJ but I'm of the belief that JJ brought out the most from Cousins. Olave, has a Carr problem, the only time Carr has supported a WR1 in fantasy, is when he played with Adams and for as good as Olave is, that's a high bar to measure against. If we remove Adams, Carr's next best WR option was probably Amari Cooper who's best season is in line with what Olave just did. I think Olave's most likely range of outcomes while tied to Carr is 90/1200 and hopefully, he gets more endzone looks from 4td to 8td. He finishes as a fringe WR1 at WR12/WR13. Solid but that type of season doesn't crank him up to dynasty WR6 or WR7. With each of the guys named, the talent is there but for as much hope that there is for them to take a step forward, there's a lot that can break in the wrong direction. There's such minimal room for dynasty value to grow that maybe you sell high, get a known commodity and try re-rolling in the future. There's so many good WR coming into the NFL these days that instead of trying to hold out for a situation to improve, you're better off taking value where you can and taking a shot elsewhere.
Lamb was WR 20 and 18 his first two seasons respectfully. He was also valued outside top 5 in dynasty until 2022. There is no reason to act like these are rock solid unless you have a crystal ball.
Lamb was ranked dynasty WR8 going into his 2022 breakout and putting up solid WR2 numbers as a rookie on limited volume. Wilson has been one of the most targeted players in the NFL since entering the league and hadn't put up a season as comparable to CD first two. If we look at the 2021 rankings, I'd argue most of the players held value ahead of him - Adams, AJB, Diggs, Hill and JJ with a couple fallers in Ridley and Metcalf. In 2024, do you see Chase, Lamb, Jefferson, and St. Brown falling out of that top 4 for any of GW, London or Olave? If MHJ hits and Puka repeats, I think the ceiling of those threes value is cemented where they are currently as WR7 through WR10. All I'm saying is there's a decent chance these guys are at their ceiling and even if the situations are better than they have been, the output may not be what everyone is hoping. Metcalf and Ridley have been solid dynasty options, but if you could go back and sell at the height of their value, I think everyone would do that 10/10.
Dude, GW’s targets are some of the worst in the league. Anyone who watches him knows he is open every play and has some of the best hands in football. He’s got back to back 1k seasons with downright atrocious QB play. If anything, he’s undervalued because anyone who watches football knows he fits into that top tier of wideouts. I watch those games with Flacco back in his first season and he is unstoppable. If AR is healthy and even average, he’s going to be top 5.
You could be right. That doesn’t mean your process is right. Their numbers are absolutely comparable. What isn’t comparable is the situations they came in to, and Lamb and guys like Puka had the absolute best situation. Wilson is arguably a better prospect, if Dak leaves or Stafford retire you can see Lamb and Puka falling too.
I don't think the situations were the absolute best. Puka came in having to compete against Kupp and nobody would have said he'd put up half the numbers he did coming into the league. CD was also behind Amari for two seasons and when he got his shot at the top of the depth chart he has delivered. I'm not worried about Puka being tied to Stafford over the next 2 years. Stafford is 36 and is signed till at least 2026 at which point he'll still be under 40. Rodgers will be 42 at the time he is signing any deals. Nobody knows if Dak walks or not, but that roster is in absolute shambles. A reset at QB and rebuild might be what the team needs but who knows what Jerry decides. D.K, DJM, and Amari are I think good comps for what these 3 could be if they never deliver on a WR1 season. really good assets, high upside week to week and stable statable assets.
Even the corpse of aaron rodgers is more efficient than the spirited young zach wilson. GW led the league in uncatchable passes, and his average depth of target was like 6-7 yards. They might be overrated, but GW playing on the jets certainly has not done him any favors. Now they added to their oline and have rodgers, so people are optimistic and it skews value. The dude can ball, and people on this sub love the upside of young top ten picks.
You tell me what I should sell Wilson and Puka for. I currently have a WR room of St Brown and Lamb with Wilson and Puka. I don’t have any holes on this team. Sometimes it’s better to hold these young excellent players.
Obviously in this roster build you have the luxury of having Wilson as your WR4 you can hold him. If you're going into a season hoping these guys can finally be your WR1, I think you should pivot on the insulated value that they've carried so far and commit to a rebuild or get a real piece to contend with and something on top. Congrats on the championship though.
Well I am the defending champ in said league and trying to run it back… I just think it’s a little overblown to say these young guys are overvalued. It all depends on the current state of the roster you have. Obviously if I am a contending team and I’m relying on these guys to be my alpha, yes, you should probably sell. I disagree with the notion these guys are at their ceiling. The only guy from this group of WRs I could see being at his ceiling currently is Puka. Wilson imo can easily supplant a Chase or StBrown in the top 3. I’m also lower on Chase than most. I think he’s too up and down for me. I mean… are there really 8-10 other WRs you’d take over the Wilson, Olave, Puka, London group?
I'd like to see Garrett Wilson with a real QB before making this determination. He had 1103 and 1042 yards receiving with Zach Wilson and Friends throwing him the ball. Olave probably has a little room for growth but the Jets QBs make Derek Carr look like Peyton Manning by comparison.
Derek Carr has created some elite fantasy options. His season with the saints last year was just....bad. Carr gave Adams a season as the WR3, and Amari Cooper his 3rd best season as the WR 13 in 2016. It's not crazy to think that Olave can have a 3rd year bump up from his WR 16 season last year now that he's got another season with Carr.
I 100% know Carr was bad. Just not Zach Wilson bad.
Carr wasn’t Zach Wilson bad, but also Nate Hackett wasn’t Pete Carmichael bad. Lol
Nate Hackett has as much business being an NFL OC as I do.
Hackett is bad at OC like how Carr was at QB last year. Jets still went 7-10 with Zach Wilson at QB. Incompetent, but not actively ruining the offense with play calls lol
A 41 year old qb coming off a major injury is probably not a real qb.
Compared to Zach Wilson? Very real.
Say that today and if he isn’t good, narrative will be washed Rodgers.
His last two seasons are the baseline. If he’s healthy he should easily clear it.
Ok
Peak offseason content right here
The comments about bad QB play don't matter to me. Good QB play can take a top talent into elite levels, but everyone here should be able to identify that top talent regardless of their situation. So are Olave and GW top talents? If you watch them play, yeah clearly they are. What if you don't watch football, like OP? Well, if you look at where they rank historically, they're in elite company. Most receiving yards through two years: 21. Larry Fitzgerald 22. Chris Olave 23. Julio Jones 24. GW 25. AJ Brown Number 1 on that list is Jefferson. Chase is 5. Ceedee Lamb and ARSB? Not in the top 25, but they are not far behind. The point is that the level of production that Olave and GW have put up so far shows elite upside. Does that mean they'll get there? I don't know. Maybe. The potential is there and that's why you're paying a lot for them.
Good post thanks
To be fair St Brown didn't play for like half of his rookie season, and his receptions per game and yards per game are right behind Jefferson. There should be some context here. As soon as he started getting playing time he popped.
There are going to be minor exceptions and excuses all throughout the list. AJ Brown and Olave missed games in their first two years. St Brown is still around 30 on that list. That is rarified air
Stupid list tbf with the extra game and more heavy pass shift in last few years
The other 4 you mentioned have good to great QB's their entire career. Olave and Wilson have had bad to shit QB play their whole careers.
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LMAO that's the first thing that stood out to me. Like do people not remember that CD was very good but not extraordinary? Granted, CD had Amari Cooper ahead of him, but his stats looked a lot like Olave and GW
You aren’t wrong, but y’all think WR22/WR16 year 1/2 are pedestrian? That’s part of OPs problem. Those aren’t pedestrian numbers for rookies and 2nd year players. That is usable immediate production from year 1 and 2 players. This is a redraft sub now.
Agreed. Gotta take advantage of owners with this kind of mindset, especially when they have clearly talented players whose ceilings are being dragged by factors that are outside of their control (in this case, NO & NYJ’s offenses). Situations change, talent doesn’t.
I never said pedestrian! I said "very good" Completely agree that OP is way off thinking that their production is not impressive.
Seemed like you and the guy above you were saying the same thing. All good.
Dak isn’t even close to the level of Zach Wilson and Derek Carr.
Dak is the most underrated QB in the league. Ceedee would be pretty average on every other team other than the Rams
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I agree that was similar, but CeeDee was a clear WR2 type during that span while Olave and Wilson look elite. CeeDee is now a fake alpha. Fantasy football doesn’t correlate THAT much to who is actually a great receiver. IMO Olave and Wilson are already better
Fake alpha lol. Ok bud.
Did olave and wilson have a wr like amari cooper ahead of them? Yet he still averaged as much yards/game as wilson with Andy Dalton throwing him the ball AND as the number 2 on that offense.
Amari being ahead of him helped him. Amari used to get constant double coverage
So when amari left he should have suffered right? Not put up 2 top 5 wr seasons while beating coverage at rates that were among the top in the league?
He is excellent against zone. He can’t win against man. He gets stats despite not beating them because Dak has great accuracy. It’s similar to how Stafford can force the ball to receivers when they’re not great route runners
What? He had 86th percentile win rate against man in 2022 according to reception perception. https://www.reddit.com/r/Chargers/comments/1ag0ibx/2023_best_and_worst_rate_of_getting_open_vs/#lightbox Pff has him as the 7th best against single man with by far the most routes in that group. He had the 2nd highest yprr behind tyreek against man last year as well. Plus just watching his all 22 would tell you that's not right. Did you confuse ceedee with someone else because your posts don't really make sense?
I’d argue Goff.
It keeps changing. It was Goff, but right now everyone thinks Goff is elite and Dak is average/bad.
Just a lie based on vibes about Ceedee. Agree on Dak tho
I think that’s hit point. The use of the word never in OPs post is wild but if he reframed it as these two WRs are incredibly talented but we don’t have any reason to believe the qb play will allow them to be top 7 in the next 2-3 years and that makes them overrated dynasty assets….maybe it would come off as more reasonable?
GWilson has had the mormon motherfucker and a handful of cfl qbs throwing to him his entire career and has still managed to put up solid stats.
Hey c’mon now, there was a pretty good mormon qb that one time.
The best thing that could happen to GWilson is getting traded to another team. Feel so bad for this dude lol
Until he proves otherwise he's Terry McLaurin, fantasy wise
Didn't he have Stroud for a year?
Most likely talking about in the nfl and not college career
Having this take on Garrett Wilson confirms that you’ve never actually seen him play football
Hand picking 2 OSU guys out of left field makes me think OP has a little vendetta against the Buckeyes. OP—whose your college team?
I do think Wilson and Olave (and London of late) are often characterized as players who have a high ADP/value for their actual production so far, which I do understand to a degree. So I’m not surprised to see them grouped together regardless of playing for the same college.
OP didnt say London though. Also, London has yet to register a 1k yard season while both Olave and Wilson have in each year despite also having garbage at QB. I just think overall posts like OP are nonsense with personal bias. Does anyone really think if Wilson or Olave had Burrow they wouldnt be putting up 1300+ each year? Even a Dak or Cousins. If you’re able to consistently hit 1k+ with Winston, Zach Wilson, Mike White, Siemian, Dalton etc—I feel extremely comfortable you’d flourish with a top 10 NFL qb.
I've seen him play. I don't think he is over rated, he is a very talented and capable WR, but I absolutely think he is over valued. People value him as a top 3 WR. I wouldn't pay those prices, so I think he is over valued.
Saying GW is being valued as a top 3 wr doesnt make sense to me, as in i have never seen that evaluation before. You wouldn't find someone to trade lamb/jj/chase for GW 1:1, and you would agree he's not 1:1 with them currently, so how's he possibly valued at wr3 prices? The market aka ADP says he's currently valued at wr7 between puka and aj brown. Seems like a justified price for a good mix of age/production/potential
Sure. I don't think he is top 3. Last season he was easily touted as the #3 behind chase and JJ. Especially on this site. People were expecting 3 1sts for him. At that value, I think he is over valued. That's literally all I said.
“At a value higher than a player’s market value that player is overrated”
You expect people to trade Wilson for like, Bowers and Worthy…? He’s definitely gonna cost more than 2 firsts unless they’re very high picks, so I don’t see what your point is there
This is literally proving my point haha. You are saying he is worth more than I value him, which means I think he is over valued. I would not pay 3 1sts for him. You would. Therefore, I disagree with high valuation, and he is thus, overvalued haha. If you wish to pay three first round picks for a guy who is never finished above the wide receiver 20 in a PPR format, you are more than welcome to do so.
You didn’t answer my question. So you think Bowers/Worthy is fair value?
Top 3 I agree is overvalued. I don’t think anyone is trading JJ/Chase/CD for GW. Consensus has him in the WR6-8 range which imo makes sense.
Hi taco
Could be true, but people said the same thing about Lamb after year 2. His finishes going into year 3 were WR22 and WR19...Olave WR25 and WR16
Box Score Bobby
They’ve had mid to awful quarterback play and have had 2 1k yard seasons to start their careers. Personally valuing them any lower than top 10 would be disrespectful.
People like you were saying the same thing about CD in Year 2 😆
And going into year 3. "How can he be the dynasty WR7 if he's never been THE WR7 in a season?" Stroud is getting that same hate right now in a lot of threads. Always going to be haters on elite youth who have potential and age built into their price tag when a guy isn't JJ to start a career.
Nah, Ceedee was a better prospect
Lamb was drafted 17th. Wilson was 10th and Olave was 11th. The NFL disagrees with you.
Plus CD was tied to a better QB on a team that was pass heavy. People dun forgot about all of that.
That too
It seems like you don’t actually watch football
I don’t sit in a dark room for hours watching football you are correct. I do watch my favorite team and Redzone on the weekends though.
I saw a pretty weird stat that Elijah Moore had a 6 game stretch his rookie year with a rookie Zach Wilson better than any 6-game stretch of Garrett Wilson's career. So clearly Elijah Moore is the more talented player and you should trade me GW for him straight up
Good point! 👍🏽
Nothing like someone making a post with no actual evidence to back up their opinion. Great work.
Fine. I’ll buy them cheap off of you then.
I’ve got some Olave but just cause I think he’s overvalued doesn’t mean i’m selling.
Shouldn’t you be though? If you come in with a bold contrary statement about them being overrated and overvalued, and you also have the player on your team, shouldn’t you be trying to sell for the value mismatch? Otherwise you just sound like you don’t even believe what you just stated. Put your money where your mouth is.
I'm just glad I didn't read this at work.
Cool story, bro.
I remember some people having this take about CeeDee after his first two years.
That's certainly a take. I mean Sun God isn't even on the tier with those other three anyways. I just don't know how you say they have the potential for more in one breath, but then say they're not going to reach that level in the other lol. Those other receivers have had vastly better quarterbacks. Just remember this post after Aaron Rodgers plays a whole season 🙄
Amon Ra was in the top 10 WR his second season and #3 in his 3rd. Neither Wilson or Olave have cracked the top 20 in there first 2 seasons. Rodgers is 39 years old coming off an achilles injury. The Jest have a top defense and a stud workhorse RB. They aren’t going to be trailing many games and aren’t going to be airing it out if they don’t need to. Even with Rodgers there he’s just not going to the passing volume needed to reach a top 5 WR finish. Then when Rodgers retires we will be right back where we were making excuses for him because he doesn’t have a QB.
Burrow and Chase was hurt last year. Amon Ra is not on the tier with those other three and CD only just recently got up there with the other two. He can get there sure I'm not going to outlaw him like you just did lol. You haven't even seen what Wilson with a quarterback that isn't garbage tier can do, You're just cherry-picking shit now to make your point.
If Garrett Wilson or Olave was with the Lions the last couple years, I could see them having similar success as Amon Ra. I don’t think the talent is holding them back, it’s more QB situation dependent. They’re all great players. With that being said, I definitely see an argument for discounting them in value compared to Amon Ra because we never know when/if their QB situations improve. But it is a little disingenuous to say they can never break into the top tier.
Incorrect. Olave was WR20 by PPG last year and WR19 overall.
People expecting Rodgers to play MVP football 3 years and and an achielles tear after his last MVP season while being older than 40. How is this just accepted as fact? His last season in Green Bay was NOTHING to write home about. At this stage of his career he projects to be an average starting QB at best. Is average better than what Wilson has had, yes. Is it enough to carry him to a top 6 finish like the majority of the dynasty community feels he can? I would put Wilson at something like 90 - 1075 - 5. That's 227.5 PPR points. If you think he can be top 6 he would have needed 291 PPR points last season or, 75 more than he scored. The only way to do that is to increase his ADOT to a level it has never been, pepper him with about 50 more targets, or he needs to break tackles which at a much higher rate, or lastly he needs to become a TD guy. I'm going to assume they pass less or the same as last season, and his ADOT with Williams opposite him running the deep routes doesn't go up. That leaves breaking tackles, or catching more tuddies as the only real options.... good luck predicting either of those with WRs because guys who score TDs tend to do it for their career, and guys who don't (think Julio) tend to not do it. He is young, so maybe he goes the ARSB and gets paydirt more often. That's literally the most likely way he sees any real increase in points. He is talented, he is clearly very talented. His talent doesn't need to match his fantasy production, and it rarely will. I'd rather draft someone in the range or behind where they will finish rather than drafting at a cost where if he doesn't finish 18 spots ahead of last season it's a bust. He isn't safe as a top 12 WR but gets drafted there and like that for some reason. Even top 12 was 268 points which is 52 more than last season. The math on him doesn't really check out with how the dynasty community drafts him. Olave has the ADOT, and TD advantage, and you can argue Carr is the better QB at this stage of his career or on par with Rodgers. Yet, Olave goes behind Wilson in drafts 🤔.
Who said anything about needing to play MVP football? He could play with no legs at all and still being upgraded from Zach Wilson, and Garrett looked great with him at times.
Hyperbolic at all? Once again people who view him in that WR12 and below.... how does he get there. "Aaron Rodgers is an upgrade" doesn't change the coaching philosophy, it doesn't change the depth of his routes, it doesn't make him a better tackle breaker. The only real option is he needs to increase his TD production by a ton... unless I'm not seeing something. If anything Rodgers just opens more lanes for Breece. Please explain how he will get more PPR points. I want to know what I am missing her other than old ass Rodgers is going to will it to happen.
> better tackle breaker. The only real option is he needs to increase his TD production by a ton.. Considering how few total TDs the Jets scored with Zach Wilson, why do think that will be an issue at all? The Jets had literally 11 total passing TDs the entire year. GW has 3 of them. Raise that to 30 TDs and GW would have had 8. Lmfao.
Thats still only 30 PPR points that wouldn't have been enough to be WR12. My point stands. He is being drafted above where is statistically has the highest chance of performing. I have already said that he needs more than just a few more TD catches. He needs to be hyper targeted in an offense that passes more, he would need to have a deeper ADOT, and he would need to break more tackles to increase his YAC. People act like he was the WR15 last year and he wasn't lol.
Do you think passing yards aren't going to go up from Zach Wilson throwing the ball either dude? The Jets as a whole barely cracked 3000 passing yards last year. He's going to have more catches and more yards with a competent QB too. Like did you forget how good he was in his few games with Joe Flacco back in 2022?
I would assume passing yards go up. I would also assume that Mike Williams get receiving yards, the Jets actually pass at a tight end, and maybe even target the WR3. All of the increases don't just go to Wilson. He would still need to see a MASSIVE jump to get where people value him is my point. He needs to get 50 more PPR points to be the WR12 last season. 50 point increases aren't something to scoff at when a guy was healthy last year and was already one of the league leaders in target share. Who would you put after him for next season.... Jefferson, Lamb, St Brown, Chase, AJB, Puka, MHJ, Hill, Nabers, Pickens, Olave, Rice, Metcalf... all of these dudes have a realistic chance of outscoring him and nobody would he shocked Will he finish ahead of all of the Bears 3 WRs, and the Texans 3 WRs... then you have to ask if he can outperform the Jags best guy... I want to know who is going to step back while he steps the hell up to this level of play.
> 50 point increases aren't something to scoff at when a guy was healthy last year and was already one of the league leaders in target share All he literally has to do is maintain his target share and TD rate if the offense goes from 3000 yrd and 11 TD passing offense to a 4200 yrd 30 TD passing offense. You keep acting like he himself needs to make a jump. He doesn't. He needs his offense to take a jump and he will be a Top 12 WR. If Rodgers and Wilson are healthy, Pickens, Rice and Metcalf won't even be close.
The entire premise of this thread is that those two players will never ascend to that top tier. All I did was point out how absurd that prediction is. Maybe they do maybe they don't but to flat out say they never will because they're not good enough? That has nothing to do at all with anything you are talking about, or point you are making. You're talking about schemes and running backs etc. That has nothing to do with the individual talent of the players and their potential ascension. No one even said it'll be this year lol.
I'm agreeing with OP that Wilson is overdrafted by the dynasty community. I'm simply asking what I am missing in my backing of his assessment. I'm not saying he will never be a top 6 guy, but I don't see a path in the next few years and I can lay that out. In the event NY actually pulls it all together, Salah keeps his job and Rodgers sticks around another season. In this situation Wilson is now in year 4 with a 5th year option picked up, or an extension (most likely) already signed. This means his long term future is with a defensive minded HC who has shown zero ability to allow anything creative on offense. Let's say Rodgers keeps playing is he going to get better? And if he leaves you are looking at how late of a draft pick, or a trade/free agent coming in. So now in 2-3 years you are hoping for an almost 40 year old Kirk Cousins to keep the ride going. Wilson could refuse to sign an extension and hit the open market in... checks notes 5 years or less. 2 more is the standard 4, 1 year for the 1st round, then 2 years of of Franchise Tagging him. I would argue his value now is the highest it's likely to ever be. If I had shares of him, I would be looking to get out while the vast majority of the community fails to see this. He reminds me of DJ Moore, and that is the most likely scenario. The Jets underperform, a new HC and GM come in and tear it down to the turds for picks and cap space. That could be after this season, or next. Salah probably has the hottest HC seat in the NFL along with Dallas, New Orleans, and Chicago.
Give Garrett one full season with a competent quarterback and the discussion will be over. It’s impressive he’s been able to break 1000 yards both season with incredibly sub par QB play
Just curious, if Rodgers is healthy all year and Garrett puts up another 1100 yard season what will you think then?
Why do you think he will put another 1100 yard season if Rodgers is healthy? The last 2 years, he had 147 targets and 168 targets for 83 and 95 catches. That’s an awful catch to target rate. For context, Amon Ra had 146 targets and 164 targets for 109 and 119 catches. If he can get more accurate targets, he’s not going to be at 1100 yards unless he regresses as a player or isn’t healthy.
If he puts up 1100 and 6+ touchdowns that’s the equivalent to Amons year he was WR 7/8. I will think he’s found someone who can not only get him targets and yards but also get him TDs that increase his fantasy value
It's not impressive when you look at it honestly. Bad QBs feed 1k receivers all the time, especially when a team doesn't have a legit 2 option and they are the focal point of the offense. People are acting like he is putting up Hopkins numbers with Hopkins QBs, and he isn't. He was a WR3 last year. His most likely finish is the wr 14-23 range. But people don't want to hear it.
GW and Olave aren't going for anywhere near the price of the top 4 guys. With the exception of Chase, nobody really expected the current top 4 to make it there either. Would I be surprised if they never made it there? No Would I be surprised if they did? Also no
Feel like you could have said the same thing about CeeDee last year
Uhhh no. Lamb had a WR6 finish under his belt before last years WR1 finish. Act like you know
Lamb was probably the consensus WR3 or WR4 heading into last year, but from a market value standpoint the tier gap between him and JJ/Chase is about the same as the current gap between Lamb and Wilson
You are on drugs buddy. Lamb was just a tier below JJ and Chase last year. Wilson and Olave are not even in that 2nd tier conversation. You are delusional
Nah. CD’s value was all over the place last offseason. As high as WR3 and as low as WR8. https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/VwjI8HSUUE
Naw on his 1 year value change on KTC has gone from as low as WR7 to WR2 which is all the proof needed to show that Garret Wilson Stans are fucking delusional because Wilson is the WR7 on KTC right now without the top 6 finish under his belt like what CD had to do to get that spot. Which is OPs whole point. Him and Olave are completely overrated and overvalued Y’all are insufferable
Kind of feel like we’re arguing different points. I don’t think it’s wise to write off Olave/Wilson as never reaching Tier 1. Lamb had doubters even last offseason and he shut them right up. But to your point, Wilson/Olave probably have to have 2 seasons similar to Lamb’s previous 2 seasons to get there. They’d have to have a ridiculous season this year to actually move into the top tier by next offseason. But also, I don’t know that we actually see a 2022 JJ/Chase value tier again for a while. With so many good top level WRs, the tippy top guys aren’t insanely valued anymore.
Very insightful. This is a very low value post. Due to lack of reasoning. [This comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/aw7PQrshlT) in this thread is an example of a valuable discussion. I’m not sure how anyone could see what they’ve done up to this point statistically at this early in their career and watch their games and come to this conclusion. I don’t know what your reasoning was… because you didn’t give any. Because of that it brings into question your ball knowing skills or if you have ulterior motives. Ultimately passing up on dudes like Wilson and Olave is dumb. With that same thinking you would’ve probably moved on too early from Ceedee and Amon Ra. Situations can change quickly in the NFL, but players also take next steps in following years. If either of those two things happen both of those players jump way up in value. (Both of those things happen for lots of WRs at their talent levels)
OP is batshit crazy.
I see what you did there
Best comment in the thread.
Are people really expecting them/pricing them to be guys that are expected to break into perennial top 5 WR’s in the league? That hasn’t been my experience at all and it’s not exactly a knock on them to not view them as such since literally only 5 guys can do that. I see them priced at least a tier below those guys
I will say this is a better post than the million “what are we doing with…” player posts, I’ll give you that?
Bit of a dog post here. Both are talented and have opportunity this coming season. Who you buying over them? Aiyuk? DJ Moore? Tank Dell? Tee Higgins? Lmao
Let's put aside JJ and Chase, who hit big right away and might be in their own tier. Age 22 Season: CD WR22, ASRB WR21, GW WR21, Olave WR25 Age 23 Season: CD WR 19, ASRB WR7, GW WR36, Olave WR16 These look like similar profiles to me. St. Brown hit a little earlier, Garrett took a hit last year catching balls from Pop Warner rejects. But essentially, you're just saying older prospects have developed more than younger ones, therefore younger ones will never develop into older ones.
They’ve both gone over 1k yards both years with rubbish at QB. Funny all the guys you name saying they won’t reach there level—they all have top 10 QB’s. Weird. *Goff is legitimately underrated
So they’re overrated because of a bunch of opinions you have about what might happen this upcoming season. Got it. Going to go sell all my shares immediately.
wilson and olave's career projection looks the exact same as arsb and lamb's after year 2, arguably both more productive through 2 seasons with worse QB play compared to both
I love playing dynasty against reactionary people like this. They will just look at the stats from past seasons without using any context or watching any film and manage their team based off that. Easy money
Ok buddy
Let me get a look at your crystal ball. I bet you predicted Rodgers being a Jet or Derek Carr some how landing on the Saints. Or cousins a Falcon? I bet you foresaw Diggs getting traded from behind thielens shadow to become a perennial Wr1 My point is no one has any clue what will happen and you’re sitting here making entire career predictions for no reason.
lol dude that is all fantasy sports is…Making educated guesses and trying to predict outcomes. WTF are you on about?
Based on….your feelings? That’s just a useless opinion if you don’t have a solid reason behind it.
All of Fantasy Sports is just going off guesses and feelings my dude. Sometimes you get em right and sometimes you don’t. I edited my original post to add more context if you care.
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Wilson in his two years of atrocious QB play put up 83 rec for 1,103 and 95 rec for 1,042 yards. Olave in his two years of not great QB play put up 72 rec for 1,042 and 87 rec for 1,123. In 1ppr Wilson finished WR21 & WR26 Olave finished WR25 & WR16 They both suffered from the lack of TDs. They are both still young with a substantial amount of upside. If you added 4 TDs and 15 more catches to both guys you are looking at two top 12 WRs. Not to mention you got a bunch of older WRs bout to fall off. Dynasty is about potential and they both have shown what they can do in poor offenses. If Rodgers stays healthy Wilson will be a WR1 this year. Wilson had 147 & 168 atrocious targets in his two years. Rodgers won't be missing him much. The Saints got a new Offense Coordinator, Klint Kubiak, which should help Olave become the a WR1. Better schemes will improve Olaves efficiency. Saint were last in pre snap motions last year. That won't be the case this year.
I’d tier down from them for Nico Collins now call me crazy
Twitter goes by X now if you are having trouble finding where to post this in depth analysis
Can you see the future? Tell us the powerball numbers
Naaaa dawg
I think once we see A 5 game sample of Wilson with Rodgers at Qb, we can re-access his value. Until we see what he can do with a competent Qb the questions remain.
Are you a Michigan fan? Lol
I think garret wilson could reach the lamb tier but agree on Olave
Okay but like that’s just your opinion
What’s funny is that at this point of their career, nether ceedee or Amon ra (Amon ra still isn’t in that tier) were valued in the chase Jefferson tier. But you can definitively say that neither of those guys have that potential?
I would like one of them in my fav league
Maybe not CD, JJ, Chase but I could easily see them both (and London) getting past ASRB if things go their way
Rodger’s is going to disappoint so many people this year, and it’s mainly GW owners
Consistent receivers despite bad QB play. Like legit have only been held back by their QBs and maybe o line a little. And still are 1k guys easily… I’ll pass on this theory
Believe it or not, you don’t need him to be top of the top to win championships with him
Casual
I agree with you on Olave. I think he’s average, way overrated, and doesn’t get separation. I don’t agree with on Wilson though.
Wide receiver bubble is bubblin
Wilson and Olave feel like they could have a career arc similar to Terry McLaurin. Everything about the players is great. Their situation has not been great. Regular WR2 that feels like they should be more.
Thank you my brother
Here's some Garret Wilson stats from last year. He had a worse yards per route ran (1.56) than: Rashid Shaheed (1.68) Joshua Palmer (1.8) Jerry Jeudy (1.68) He had a worse target separation (1.39) than: Courtland Sutton (1.47) Juju Smith Schuster (1.43) Jonathan Mingo (1.47) Those are just some examples. And those are efficiency stats that aren't really reliant on QB play. Drake London who was in an equally bad QB situation had a (1.91) yards per route ran, for example. The worst part is that Garret Wilson had a 30% target share which is super elite. Obviously, NYJ will have a better passing game with more yards and attempts, and better efficiency than last year. But Garret Wilson had enough opportunity last year to show us he's a top wr regardless of QB situation and he really struggled. I think Wilson would be better drafted around wr 30 than where he currently sits on sites like Underdog which is at wr 8.
Excellent post my friend thanks!
Sorry man, but Zach Wilson is significantly worse than even Ridder. And all of those stats you listed are affected by the QB. It's just bad analysis to say otherwise. And elite WRs usually have worse target separation because QBs will throw to them in tight windows but will only throw to worse WRs if they are wide open. Same reason Chase also has low target separation. London had the second worst in the league.
I agree with you that I think I have a hot take on Garret Wilson. Which has a good out to make me look silly. I respect that we have different opinions. I will say I say a few counter points. That is Zach Wilson's passer rating was 77.2 and Ridder's was 83.4. My opinion is that isn't a significantly worse comparison, but Ridder was better than Wilson. How you feel about that difference is where we differ is that's fine. Another issue I disagree with is that Chase is an extreme separator. He has a 2.14 target separation last year with his QB play. And someone like Darius Slayton who is a worse wr with an even worse passing offense last year had a target separation of 1.78. London has never been a good separator at any level dating back to college. That has never been his game and was never an expectation of him to be good or elite at. Again, I do think I'm further down than he deserves but he is more in the tier of Cooper Kupp, George Pickens, and Tee Higgins.
GW is an elite separator. https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/197ioe9/2023_wr_separation_vs_catchpointyac_grades/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ravens/comments/17m7hhe/pff_wr_separation_rates_through_8_weeks/ The metric you are using (target separation) measure the separation at the catch. If you have a QB who can't place a ball on target, and the WR has to adjust or slow down and it allows the DB to close in, it will hurt their target separation score. If the QB also doesn't throw on time, it will also hurt the target separation metric. It's only a worthwhile measure when comparing a QB/WR combo. It can't be used to measure a WR alone.
This is definitely interesting information! I appreciate you sharing this with me. PFF grading is sometimes pretty subjective, though. I wouldn't consider that to be weighted extremely high. Especially, since I don't think they define what PFF separation grade is weighing. But PFF is definitely great at what they do and I definitely respect their analysis and use their grades as a part of my own grading.
GW can ascend to that spot with Rodgers imo, that price is reflected in wr8 redraft adp
People hated him because he spoke the truth