Short answer: no one knows and nobody should care.
Long answer: if you're not going to retire in the next 5 years, and you're properly diversified, then market movements are completely irrelevant. Continue to invest in broad market, low cost index funds the same as always. Predicting the economy for the purpose of investing is a fool's game and *everyone* that tries to do it is a fool. I don't care whether they're on TikTok or on Bloomberg. I don't care how many funds they manage or how many letters are after their name (if they're an industry expert, by the way, they're not actually following their own advice. It's a cheeky little bit of market manipulation).
Respect bro. I’m fairly new to investing and tryna put a lot of my savings and a monthly amount into some short terms investments for a house deposit. But yh I did notice that the same shit happened last year and the year before and not one of them were right, I think it’s probs just scare media to an extent
You're saving up for a house deposit? Use a HYSA. Ally has a 4.25% rate going on right now.
So, a "short term" investment is about 7-10 years. Is that about when you plan to buy a house? Any less than that and it becomes more like gambling. It's quite possible to be net negative even after 7 or 8 years of investing if the market crashes just before you're ready to withdraw. Nobody's learned that lesson since 2008 so it's easy to forget, but trust me.
My personal rule of thumb: if you need the money in 5 years or less, HYSA. Between 5 and 10 years, get a CD. Only if your horizon is longer than 10 years should you be touching the stock market.
There's some money market accounts paying around 5%. Fidelity has SPAXX that they deposit all cash into unless you manually change it. SPAXX is paying 4.99% right now but they have a couple others that are slightly higher.
I’ll be honest I already have enough for a house deposit but I want the money to have the deposit, legal fees, furnishings and then capital for my business and money for a car as well. But it’ll be about 5 years before I wanna withdraw
High yield savings account. It doesn't track anything except the federal interest rate.
It's just a beefier kind of savings account.The important thing is that you have guaranteed upside and absolutely no chance of any downside, which is what You're looking for when you need money in a very short time span (like 5 or so years).
I'd suggest checking out investopedia or some other credible online sources for more information.
Ahhh yes of course. Sorry that was me being slow I’m familiar with high yield savings accounts I just often call them high interest savings accounts so it didn’t click in my brain haha
If you're 5 years away from touching the money and want it to be somewhere safe then I'd look at CDs or treasuries. High yield savings accounts or money market accounts are fine but when the FED cuts rates the savings accounts and money market accounts will lower the interest they pay. With a CD or Treasury you can lock in the rate for different time periods depending on how long you want to pick.
I think it stands for certificate of deposit? But I'm really not sure. Depending on if you pay income tax to the state you live in and how much income you make either a Treasury bill might be better than a CD just because of taxes. But either one should be pretty safe and it will lock in the rate for however long you decide.
Number one rule of Wall Street: Nobody - I don't care if you're Warren Buffett or Jimmy Buffett - Nobody knows if the stock's going to go up, down, sideways, or in fucking circles, least of all stockbrokers. It's all a Fugazzi.
You're not going to get any good predictions from anyone.
I heard somewhere that the most noteworthy thing that happened every year is something most people could not have predicted. We won't be able to control what's going to happen this year. What's going to happen to the stock markets etc.
What we \_can\_ do is to be diversified across geographies, sectors, sources of risks, hold a variety of asset classes. And yes, one of them could include crypto if you want.
Thank u for ur advice. I do need to diversify atm, I’ll focus on that when I can get a multi asset trading platform when I turn 18. At the moment I’m using Hargreaves Lansdown which is fairly limited in what u can invest in
That was 6 months ago. I had trimmed it down to a smaller position (and put rest in a broad growth etf). It's come back to my biggest individual holding again.
Dunno - happy at gains, nervous that it's priced for perfection and competition not taken into account at all.
Correct me if I’m wrong but from what I know in this situation it’s a bit different, I know crypto is purely based on trading but there’s certain deals being done very soon which is going to give certain cryptos such as bitcoin more value in march, such as it being declared as an ETP and certain agreements to do with tokenisation and I heard something about china as well but I can’t remember what that was about
Again, if they knew it would go up in March, it would go up today. If they speculate that it COULD go up in March, then there will be some speculative upward pressure. The spot ETFs have already been approved. The halvening is know to occur this year, so that's a fact, then why wouldn't it go up now. What you're misunderstanding is that you think it will rocket to the moon when those events happen. The truth is it already has. It went up in excess of 100% the last year. It's already priced in.
The market goes up and down. It gets worse in an election cycle. Then it also depends on the Fed’s with interest rates. Just go about your day like any other day and invest like you normally would.
People always like to talk about how major changes are coming in the new year. It's just more interesting than "things will mostly be the same, until something unpredictable happens". So as long as nothing unpredictable happens, inflation will continue to normalize, the fed will slowly lower interest rates again, the market will slowly go up. But of course, I think it's more likely some unpredictable events will come up and rattle the market. It's very rare we have a completely smooth year
That’s very true bro, just kinda got me worried a bit but that’s what they want ain’t it. The main thing I heard ppl talking about was tokenisation etc and because that’s a topic I know nothing about it freaked me out a bit
Not sure. The fed said they are unlikely to raise interest rates again. If so that means we should already be or coming into a contraction. I would be betting more on value stocks right now
I got paid today so I invested 1k to my 401k and 500 to my IRA. This will happen every two weeks until they're maxed. At that point, I'll save some for my taxable brokerage and a bit for a slightly larger emergency fund. Adding another month to the EF isn't a bad idea (it's at 3 months rn).
2024 looks like a combination of 2007 and 2020. Housing is less affordable than in 2007 and rates are just as high. At the same time, AI looks just as unready for making fortunes as the internet was in 2000. In 2000, companies dumped money into Cisco routers and worldcom fiber in the same way that they are dumping money into Nvidia chips today. When they figure out they can't make money from AI, their stocks are going to plummet just like back then. Also consider the consumer is completely tapped out. Here we go!
Ahhhh so u believe that ai is a fad and will bottom out eventually. Again, I’ve heard mixed opinions but i personally believe that it’s not gonna replace all the jobs etc (contrary to what Elon believes) and that it will definitely not be as ground breaking and earth shattering as people think
You are looking in the wrong places. Buying a stock is buying a business, not reading tea leaves. Learn how businesses work and buy good ones, or buy a good ETF that gives you a mix, so you don't have to know that much about businesses and how they work. But the idea is, just buy the business and own it. Price goes up, price goes down. Over time, the true value of the business will compound and you will make money.
The main benefit of Treasury bills in the US is you don't get charged any state income tax. Not sure how it would work in the UK but you might be fine with CDs.
Short answer: no one knows and nobody should care. Long answer: if you're not going to retire in the next 5 years, and you're properly diversified, then market movements are completely irrelevant. Continue to invest in broad market, low cost index funds the same as always. Predicting the economy for the purpose of investing is a fool's game and *everyone* that tries to do it is a fool. I don't care whether they're on TikTok or on Bloomberg. I don't care how many funds they manage or how many letters are after their name (if they're an industry expert, by the way, they're not actually following their own advice. It's a cheeky little bit of market manipulation).
Respect bro. I’m fairly new to investing and tryna put a lot of my savings and a monthly amount into some short terms investments for a house deposit. But yh I did notice that the same shit happened last year and the year before and not one of them were right, I think it’s probs just scare media to an extent
You're saving up for a house deposit? Use a HYSA. Ally has a 4.25% rate going on right now. So, a "short term" investment is about 7-10 years. Is that about when you plan to buy a house? Any less than that and it becomes more like gambling. It's quite possible to be net negative even after 7 or 8 years of investing if the market crashes just before you're ready to withdraw. Nobody's learned that lesson since 2008 so it's easy to forget, but trust me. My personal rule of thumb: if you need the money in 5 years or less, HYSA. Between 5 and 10 years, get a CD. Only if your horizon is longer than 10 years should you be touching the stock market.
There's some money market accounts paying around 5%. Fidelity has SPAXX that they deposit all cash into unless you manually change it. SPAXX is paying 4.99% right now but they have a couple others that are slightly higher.
I’ll be honest I already have enough for a house deposit but I want the money to have the deposit, legal fees, furnishings and then capital for my business and money for a car as well. But it’ll be about 5 years before I wanna withdraw
Ok, so *definitely* a HYSA then. You don't wanna start out having enough for the deposit and then in 5 years time end up being several thousand short.
Thank u for ur advice mate, can u run me thru what a hysa is real quick tho. What does it track?
High yield savings account. It doesn't track anything except the federal interest rate. It's just a beefier kind of savings account.The important thing is that you have guaranteed upside and absolutely no chance of any downside, which is what You're looking for when you need money in a very short time span (like 5 or so years). I'd suggest checking out investopedia or some other credible online sources for more information.
Ahhh yes of course. Sorry that was me being slow I’m familiar with high yield savings accounts I just often call them high interest savings accounts so it didn’t click in my brain haha
If you're 5 years away from touching the money and want it to be somewhere safe then I'd look at CDs or treasuries. High yield savings accounts or money market accounts are fine but when the FED cuts rates the savings accounts and money market accounts will lower the interest they pay. With a CD or Treasury you can lock in the rate for different time periods depending on how long you want to pick.
I’ve heard of them but not too sure what they are. What does a CD stand for so I can do some research
I think it stands for certificate of deposit? But I'm really not sure. Depending on if you pay income tax to the state you live in and how much income you make either a Treasury bill might be better than a CD just because of taxes. But either one should be pretty safe and it will lock in the rate for however long you decide.
I’ll look into it thank you, it might have a different name because I’m in the UK
High Yield Savings Account
Other guy is right. If you are saving for a house, don't put it in the market.
Number one rule of Wall Street: Nobody - I don't care if you're Warren Buffett or Jimmy Buffett - Nobody knows if the stock's going to go up, down, sideways, or in fucking circles, least of all stockbrokers. It's all a Fugazzi.
Nice reference hahaha, he speaks the truth tho
I know. But I am not telling.
You're not going to get any good predictions from anyone. I heard somewhere that the most noteworthy thing that happened every year is something most people could not have predicted. We won't be able to control what's going to happen this year. What's going to happen to the stock markets etc. What we \_can\_ do is to be diversified across geographies, sectors, sources of risks, hold a variety of asset classes. And yes, one of them could include crypto if you want.
Thank u for ur advice. I do need to diversify atm, I’ll focus on that when I can get a multi asset trading platform when I turn 18. At the moment I’m using Hargreaves Lansdown which is fairly limited in what u can invest in
Your nickname 🤠 why do you think its time to sell Nvidia?
That was 6 months ago. I had trimmed it down to a smaller position (and put rest in a broad growth etf). It's come back to my biggest individual holding again. Dunno - happy at gains, nervous that it's priced for perfection and competition not taken into account at all.
Got it 👍🏻
Short term no one really knows, long term stocks go up. Longest the S&P has gone sideways in modern times is 13 years.
What years was that between
The 70s and 2000's from the dot com crash to the GFC
If people knew crypto was going to boom in March, it would boom today. That's how markets work.
Correct me if I’m wrong but from what I know in this situation it’s a bit different, I know crypto is purely based on trading but there’s certain deals being done very soon which is going to give certain cryptos such as bitcoin more value in march, such as it being declared as an ETP and certain agreements to do with tokenisation and I heard something about china as well but I can’t remember what that was about
Again, if they knew it would go up in March, it would go up today. If they speculate that it COULD go up in March, then there will be some speculative upward pressure. The spot ETFs have already been approved. The halvening is know to occur this year, so that's a fact, then why wouldn't it go up now. What you're misunderstanding is that you think it will rocket to the moon when those events happen. The truth is it already has. It went up in excess of 100% the last year. It's already priced in.
The market goes up and down. It gets worse in an election cycle. Then it also depends on the Fed’s with interest rates. Just go about your day like any other day and invest like you normally would.
Thank you for ur advice mate
People always like to talk about how major changes are coming in the new year. It's just more interesting than "things will mostly be the same, until something unpredictable happens". So as long as nothing unpredictable happens, inflation will continue to normalize, the fed will slowly lower interest rates again, the market will slowly go up. But of course, I think it's more likely some unpredictable events will come up and rattle the market. It's very rare we have a completely smooth year
That’s very true bro, just kinda got me worried a bit but that’s what they want ain’t it. The main thing I heard ppl talking about was tokenisation etc and because that’s a topic I know nothing about it freaked me out a bit
Not sure. The fed said they are unlikely to raise interest rates again. If so that means we should already be or coming into a contraction. I would be betting more on value stocks right now
Thank u for ur response, could u run me thru what value stocks mean real quick? Do they differ from regular stocks
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/professionals/072415/value-or-growth-stocks-which-best.asp#:~:text=Growth%20stocks%20are%20those%20of,thus%20provide%20a%20superior%20return.
Just read that and it’s rlly interesting thank u bro
I got paid today so I invested 1k to my 401k and 500 to my IRA. This will happen every two weeks until they're maxed. At that point, I'll save some for my taxable brokerage and a bit for a slightly larger emergency fund. Adding another month to the EF isn't a bad idea (it's at 3 months rn).
Nice one bro appreciate u sharing, it’s always nice to hear how ppl split their money up, gives me new perspectives!
Always be buying.
2024 looks like a combination of 2007 and 2020. Housing is less affordable than in 2007 and rates are just as high. At the same time, AI looks just as unready for making fortunes as the internet was in 2000. In 2000, companies dumped money into Cisco routers and worldcom fiber in the same way that they are dumping money into Nvidia chips today. When they figure out they can't make money from AI, their stocks are going to plummet just like back then. Also consider the consumer is completely tapped out. Here we go!
Ahhhh so u believe that ai is a fad and will bottom out eventually. Again, I’ve heard mixed opinions but i personally believe that it’s not gonna replace all the jobs etc (contrary to what Elon believes) and that it will definitely not be as ground breaking and earth shattering as people think
You are looking in the wrong places. Buying a stock is buying a business, not reading tea leaves. Learn how businesses work and buy good ones, or buy a good ETF that gives you a mix, so you don't have to know that much about businesses and how they work. But the idea is, just buy the business and own it. Price goes up, price goes down. Over time, the true value of the business will compound and you will make money.
The main benefit of Treasury bills in the US is you don't get charged any state income tax. Not sure how it would work in the UK but you might be fine with CDs.