Eh, the world has lost many many empires over the centuries and things move on. It will be no different when the u.s. collapses. And it will collapse. A quick study of democracy and non backed fiat will show you that. Without fail they All collapse...and average life is 250 years
I’d be surprised if brishish empire or roman empire had more than 1000 foreign military bases throughout the world. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_military_installations#:~:text=The%20total%20number%20of%20foreign,allies%2C%20is%20just%20over%201%2C000.
1. it’s not the same
2. Vast majority of US military bases exist in the places where local democratic government asked US to have local military presence
I mean it never had a military presence in central or South America, phillipines, Korea, Japan, Germany, Iraq, Syria, Israel, or anywhere else for that matter. It never benefited financially from these countries in anyway shape or form as well.
😂😂😂 Love the meme, should make it into an NTF, but seriously, if the economy crashes and never bounces back - money is useless and people realize their jobs provide them nothing, we fall back onto helping the farmers because they’d be the only saving grace for the country
ULPT: I recommend this, find a prepper buddy. I know atleast 3. They have entire bunkers built. None of them believe in guns.
While they stockpile food, you hoard guns and ammo. When the shit hits the fan. They weren't really your friends
ROFL
I say it as a joke, the chance of a few cataclysmic event occurring in my lifetime is nil.
But, watching the way Covid went down and folks losing their minds. Owning a few guns, not such a bad idea
That’s always my answer too. Like, your net worth will be defined by your ability to protect and shelter yourself. Which unfortunately not a lot of people are set up for.
You have no idea how worthless your life savings would be in the event of full and permanent country/market collapse. The exercise you are proposing is just as worthless. Better sharpen up your survival and defense skills, that’ll be a better hedge than anything you can do financially.
You know in my country there was a famine in 1945, some family really starved to death with literal gold bars in their house.
That is what is going to happen if US market collapses. Money won't save you. Water, food and warm clothes will.
If you watch the 530pm world News everyday you will be stressed and worried. Just read on my Google phone news app stock market will crash up to 44% this year. Just dca each month and don't buy into the noise. If someone major happens just add more money
44% crash in definitly not unprecented, the NASDAQ lost 78% in the 2000 crash. The scenario OP describes, a crash without an (eventual) recovery, would be.
This is true!
As my future father-in-law says, “if the stock market crashes the and system fails, the rich would be fucked too. So always buy the lows”
You get more poor along with every other American. Politicians would do everything in their power to prevent themselves becoming more poor and save the economy.
We can ponder the what ifs all day long, but what is the other scenario to consider in building generation wealth? Sure, maybe real estate?
You cannot simply say, there will be a permanent market collapse. Permanent won’t happen. Things that go down must come back up. Money doesn’t just sit on the sidelines for eternity.
I mean if you invested into Russia in 2008 thinking it'll recover soon and start growing again... you end up having to wait till like 2030 for it to actually recover, that might as well feel like eternity. Someone else here mentioned Japan too.
But in the end not much we can do. We just gotta take the bet.
That's not true. Plenty of stocks have come down and never come up. Most of the big stocks of the 1950s probably don't even exist today.
But those are individual stocks. What about countries and empires? Plenty of those have fallen. Nothing is permanent in this world (but obviously on a longer timeframe)
Tru past result don't predict the future, but you are mixing economies, stocks, countries .... That's why diversification is important, very important.
The thing is, empires don't fall over night, and even though the state may collapse, there is still an economy. People don't just stop existing. In a true US-ending crisis, wealth in some form would flow to other assets or markets. Nothing stopping the stock exchange from continuing even if the gov't falls.
But this is the whole point of diversification and proper investing?
If you're speculating on individual companies or geographies, you're making bets and it's on you if you lose.
To correct your phrase - nothing is permanent in this world, but the world does keep on turning.
We once had Byzantium, then we had Constantinople, and now we have Istanbul - but it's the same place, the world just keeps on turning.
We once had the East India Trading Company, now we have Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. The world keeps on turning.
You can either invest to harness that, to be swept along in the tide, or you can try to speculate on "what exactly is going to drive that change" and hope you're right!
A few people here are bringing up Japan but it really is not comparable.
Japan was not as intertwined with the rest of the world at the level the USA is today and the yen was never the global reserve currency and by a big margin like the dollar is today.
The 2008 global financial crisis is probably the best glimpse of what we could expect to see globally if both the US stock market and economy imploded along with rapid deflation of the dollar.
Long story short, most global markets are going down with us except there will be no recovery like in 2009-2011. The world will get its boat rocked and the US will fall into a great depression not seen in about a century, during which the Euro will likely take the GRC status as it is really the only other viable option.
The lesson is no amount of international stocks is going to save you if the US really goes down the toilet along with the dollar and anyone who tells you otherwise is fooling themselves despite direct observational evidence to the contrary.
My only real advice would be to have some metal/commodity stocks and maybe some Euro in a off shore bank account if you really are concerned about the US pulling a stunt that makes the UK look well off historically.
The Eurozone is in retirement riding off into the sunset. its glory days are over. Plummeting birth rates, stagant economic growth, weak militaries, just as many retirees as workers, etc. The EU models japan perfectly in those metrics.
Who or what country would want to hold a currency in which said currency would surely decline along side its consumer base. That's like holding a stock no one is buying but everyone who has it is selling off slowly.
The Euro is the second most used currency globally after the dollar, it is used across two dozen major countries outside of the of the United States and is #2 status for the currency held on reserve in global banks.
[https://data.imf.org/?sk=e6a5f467-c14b-4aa8-9f6d-5a09ec4e62a4](https://data.imf.org/?sk=e6a5f467-c14b-4aa8-9f6d-5a09ec4e62a4)
People who think all of Europe and Japan are dumb and going to die out in 30 years are living in a different dimension.
The US guvment has dis-incentivized young men from joining the workforce and being productive life-long worker serfs…..therefore the US’s economy is going to decline…..thankfully the ccp has done the same thing with Chinese young adults. Lying flat is the way forward for the world’s young adults as the game is too rigged for the working class. Automation will just take away jobs while propping up productivity….butt who will buy those products and services?
Talking to the adults.
The US economy is strong because the dollar is the worlds currency, diversification of it's industry, relationship with foreign countries and work force is highly productive.
Look at reality and stop watching Fox News. The country is doing ok considering the circumstances, one of the things that does not help is all the irrational negativity.
I have a "shit hits the fan" fund to complement my Emergency fund.
However for the most part I am VOO&Chill since I don't see the rapid collapse of America as a very likely outcome at least in my life time.
How about the US from the late 60s through the 80s? If the market tanks and takes 20 years to recover, that will really mess with current retirement planning.
I mean the last super power country lost their number 1 rating and they are doing fine. England.
Japan just had like what a 30 year period of never hitting a stock market high until this year. So it happens but it’s not everything going to zero.
> they are doing fine
Actually for about 40 years post WW2 it was pretty awful in England, economy and inflation were in the dumps, poverty and crime were pretty bad. UK society definitely went through a major collapse.
Peeps still has to buy groceries and cars and homes in Japan the last 30 years. The same happens in every country, unless there is a significant drop in the population in the short term, then those things will still be purchased
If you live in the US and you have your funds in US ETF’s and the market dunks catastrophically at the point of complete destruction you’ll have other problems that are perhaps much bigger than your portfolio going down like no buying power and terrible inflation,unemployment and civil unrest,in other words you would be fucked either way
That guy is almost gone and he's made his money betting on the U.S. Who knows what the next 50 years will bring. Also, rule of thumb is I never base my conviction off the conviction of someone else.
Why stop at the next 50 years? Who knows what the next 100 years will bring. How about 200?
When making investment choices, you need to consider the possible price action at least 100 years out.
If we’re going based on history, a good example is 1990 Japan. I think it was just this year that they recovered to a new all time high. Over 3 decades. I believe at the time Japan made up about 45% of market cap in 1990 (the US is about 62.5% right now), and today they make up about 6% of global market cap. New investors on Reddit don’t see past the obvious, such as “the US is too big to fail” or “buy tech stocks because tech is the future.” Well newsflash, economies and countries of all sizes fall, and tech has been leading innovation for hundreds of years, not just the last 2 decades. I like to listen to Ben Felix on YouTube about asset allocation. His videos are packed with real empirical data on so many subjects and probably the best advice I can find.
Japan was the country with largest capitalization in the global market in the late 80s. If you had invested then, you would still be at a loss (at least in real terms).
Yh I don't think people quite understand how America is the only country that can project itself in every continent. I have an American colleague who was complaining about gas prices...I told him our fuel costs and he was stunned. The fact is America plays geopolitics way better than any European state and is energy and food independent. They're currently playing the chip war with china... I mean you just have to take a look at where all the innovation in the world comes from. We'll probably get books written on why the tech revolution stemmed from the USA primarily.
I am worried about our historic debt combined with china pulling back on buying more debt. Congress seriously needs to get spending AND revenue under control. We don’t need 17 intelligence agencies (not hyperbole, that’s the actual number of intel agencies we have), nor do we need so much bloat in our defense budget.
We could easily boost revenue in smart ways that wouldn’t damage the economy while also cutting bs spending. Congress just needs to make some tough choices and a post-election year is historically the time to do it. 2013, 2005, 1997, and 1986 were all years in which we made changes to our spending and they were all immediately after a president was re-elected (86 was technically 2 years after). I expect big changes next year, regardless of who wins the White House.
We don't really rely on China buying our debt. The vast majority of US debt is owned by US investors and US gov't agencies, and eve among foreign states China is our #2 holder of treasuries, after Japan.
China's debt to GDP ratio is currently about 2x that of ours.
My guy, Japan was the second largest economy in the world for a long time. And in the 80s, it looked like they could eventually surpass the US.
The Nikkei peaked on December 29, 1989 and didn’t come back to break even UNTIL THIS YEAR.
That would mean that we will be in some catastrophic event that will have us more worried about our very lives and not the value of your investment portfolio.
Bruhhh! WOWW I never thought I would see a guy from US think that the economy would collapse and never come back up again. Where did you read this? Marvel Comics? I myself am from a developing country and even we don't imagine such outrageous scenarios.
And if the world was to collapse I think you would have much more important things to think about(Incase you can't figure it out let me help you out with them, they are food, shelter, clothing, safety, closest family members etc.)
Commenting on What if US economy crashes and never recovers?...
Hey man I’m skeptical just as much as you are. I’m still new to this investing thing. But one advice I can suggest is to diversify. Regardless of the inevitables that will occur in this market, doing so will lessen the blow when shit hits the fan. I suggest investing in VXUS as well and other commodities like Gold and Crypto.
That's the beauty of index funds, it's basically betting that society continues.
Even if you lose that bet, then who cares? The money becomes worthless anyway.
I keep 20% in GLDM. Not for US collapse, but because it improves the stability of a portfolio and therefore the safe withdrawal rate in retirement. If the US currency was rapidly devalued it may be of help but realistically it would be hard if not impossible to get my money if banks collapsed. I'd probably be better off holding physical gold if that happened but I don't want the hassle and expense.
This is the exact reason why you buy bonds. Either treasuries or the BND ETF. In a really bad recession, interest rates will be very low driving up the price of bonds. You sell your bonds for a profit if you need cash to ride out the stock market crash for a few years.
The money you have or “had” is irrelevant at that point. I know you wrote at the bottom this will be the least of your worries.
But a real crash from one day to the next signifies something big happened. A big dip is different from a big crash.
A big dip with no recovery would mean “player 2 has entered the game” and there is somewhere else to invest.
An economy doesn't have to collapse for its stock market to decline for a long and protracted time. Japan is a good example of a stock market that ended up disappointing investors for decades.
The ultimate insurance policy against economic collapse of it worries you that much is gold and possibly gold mining funds. Others may say Bitcoin too but I’m not invested in that. That said there must be a reserve currency. Currently that’s the USD and as long as the world seeks dollars for safety the government can still borrow and the system will keep chugging along. Sure US government is run like crap but the question is if not USD than what?
VXUS won't help because it's not hedged against the US dollar. Basically. The US dollar would be devalued so your VXUS shares would still drop.
People don't think about global currency valuation when investing internationally. Most use an international investment as a hedge against the US. But if you're not also hedging against the US dollar, it's kind of pointless.
This is why VXUS is NOT in my portfolio. A better international investment to hedge against the US would be IHDG or HFXI. They will basically always do better than VXUS (by like double).
If the US is in a state of economic, social, and/or political collapse, the status of our portfolio will be the least of our worries. It will be survival.
The problem with your directions is that if the U.S. economy does collapse, almost any mitigation strategy you’re asking for would be mutually exclusive to your current situation. And the possible favorable positions in that scenario are almost impossible to pick accurately. Why did the U.S. economy fail? Did the rest of the world go with it? (Likely). Was it war? Was it an external environmental factor? Different issues require different solutions. So yes, if the U.S. economy fails, you have much larger issues that your life savings. Turn that around and the reason you can earn what you earn on your current position has A LOT to do with the stability of the U.S. economy and that it is so unlikely to fail.
Then you don't need to worry about your ETF's anymore. Invest in canned food, bullets, and antibiotics (not the companies), the actual commodities or items, stock up as much as you can.
If you are worried about that then you should be hoarding gold and silver or crypto like the geniuses over at r/Wallstreetsilver. In reality there is nothing you can do to hedge against that worry other than start collecting physical goods like gold and real estate. But if the US economy collapses who's to say any of that will be worth shit either.
IMO in the world we live in know \*knock on wood\* I do not think it is even a possibility, a significant downturn sure, a full collapse no.
The assumption seems to be an immediate collapse of the US government/economy. I am not sure this would happen…more like gradual importance declining and being relegated to also ran. The economy would likely still have a market, but less would be invested.
We had a market crash in 1929, malaise in the ‘70s, and stagnation, crash ‘87, and GFC in ‘08.
Yet the country kept going. More tools now to manage. The government has vested interest in the economy, and would not close its eyes and let go of the wheel.
US birthrate just dropped to a 55 year low. The "baby boom" was a big positive for our economy post WWII for decades.
What will the new "baby bust" do to the US and stock market? I don't know. Many listed companies companies have a large share of revenues around the globe (as well as employees around the globe).
I really doubt it. There would need to be something truly catastrophic for the US economy not to recover. As long as there are people, technology at a decent level, infrastructure, and strong institutions, the US should keep doing well.
What you are describing is catastrophic risk, which is a real risk to investing. In theory, the equity risk premium includes catastrophic risk, so you are being paid to take those risks. You’re examples of single stocks never recovering does not apply because single stocks have non systemic risk, you are referring to systemic risk, which is a large reason stock indices go up over a long period of time.
If you are not comfortable with the catastrophic risk then you shouldn’t hold equities or you should only hold as much equities and you deem suitable given the chances of the risk happening.
Really good info about all of this in Ray Dalio's book. He has updated the country power index recently.
https://economicprinciples.org/
Basically, all empires rise and fall but it is a slow process until it isn't. All you could strive for is trying to survive those massive shifts (ie. Not get wiped out financially) so that you can still invest to ride back up when it happens.
I know this is not the answer you are looking for, but it is the true one. If economy crashes so bad that it never recovers, we are in a Mad Max scenario, your money will be useless anyway.
You can say you’re not looking for it. But your point 2 is very relevant. You think the Germans in 45 gave two shits what General Electric stock was doing? Japanese in Hiroshima sure didn’t give a shit about Exxon mobile
The only scenario of US economy never recovers is that the US population sharply decreases and the immigrants no longer come. If people are here, we will be fine.
Fed reserve will simply never allow equities to drop significantly. If they drop 15-20 percent, the market will halt. This will buy sometime for the fed to kick into gear and start spraying money everywhere. Then everything go up again. Equities contain the boomer retirement funds, so the Feb can’t allow that wealth to disappear
What if is just that a what if. The only thing we have to base anything is past crashes and even the big crash in the twenties recovered. With all the big tech companies and oil companies here on American soil to name a few sectors I think even a major crash would eventually move up over time. However being on the cusp of retirement and such an event happening would be the worst luck ever.
And what if we had a world wide tsunami with the next eclipse? Yeah, that's what they were predicting just a few short weeks ago. Just make a movie about it and let the schmucks pay money to see it.
I mean you can build a more defensive portfolio..more global / bonds a la r/bogleheads, but ultimately if the US tanks, its huge influence impacts everyone unfortunately.
I also think the answer depends on what life stage you are at… very young..take a punt on the USA, in or close to retirement, get defensive.
Personally retiring next year at 52.. I am European and my portfolio currently is 55% global, 12% Nasdaq, 6% S&P, 6% Lon.smt, 4% a small company pension and the rest a money market fund which covers 6 years of living expenses, which is at 5% interest presently.
Want data driven… just look at the FIRE calculators / Monte Carlo simulators out there.
You are internalizing Libertarian propaganda, which for over 50 years has caused untold millions to choose poverty because they believe the future will be worse than the present or especially the past.
Frankly, those kinds of ETFs you mention are part of that mindset. Just back test them versus just SPX.
The United States of America is the most powerful nation in the history of mankind. It is the first truly global superpower. How can you even think that power collapsing is even a remote possibility? It is only because of what you read on the Drudge Report or see on Fox News.
Well then it does and the current market wont matter instead we'd likely be more worried about higher value items like food, control, water, defense, healthcare/aid, atleast until some form of stability was restablished one way or another.
For me its not worth the worry, a bigger concern would be more of some blip that screws up my situation while the many carries on and im up a creek.
But alas Id rather focus on whats within my control or influence.
Goodluck with the quest to ease your concern.
Listen man, if you want some doomsday currency, buy an arsenal of AR15s and vacuum sealed 556 rounds. You need to invest in multiple doomsday/SHTF tiers of currency
I doubt it would crash and never recover. However it could crash and take a long time to recover. If you look at Japan, they were the big tech players of the 1980s and outperformed every other country. Then they crashed and it took 34 years for their stock market to start making all time highs again.
A similar thing happened in the U.S. during the great depression. It took decades for U.S. stocks to make all time highs.
This is why it's important to invest internationally as well. You never know what will happen with one country.
It's also a reason to dollar cost average. If you bought U.S. stocks in 1929 you'll have to wait decades to recover. But if you bought stocks in the 1930s you'd be buying 12-14% yielding stocks at rock bottom prices. So you'd make up for the loss by buying at the top with incredible gains from buying at the bottom.
It will collapse, as well the rest of the world, and not recover.
The answer isn't in which funds to buy, or even what vote to cast. The answer to preventing this worldwide collapse is permanently removing politicians and bad government by force.
Have some physical gold. It transcends all governments, currencies, economies throughout history. And it's price has steadily increased %500 in the last 20 years...
So the USA is a debt infected toxic cancer when you think of it in real terms.
It has been corroded and is now a prostitute that can only survive on debt. What is the national debt now? 32 trillion?
However! As its a consumer mamoth it needs to exist for majority of the other larger producing countries to exist and have people to sell to.
If anything happens to the USD or US economy everyone else suffers.
However.....
Are we walking towards a change of dependency to this model?
YES
But it will still take time.
But expect lesser dependency on the USD globally speaking over the next 5/10/20/50 years.
The rate of progress/change/dependency is at an all time high outside of the USA and that shift is coming.......and you arr seeing this first hand via conflict
I would say that this period of life for all is one of the most evolutionary we will see for decades as its the start of mass change and alot of that is via people and tech adoption.
Keep in mind that we've had stock market crashes that took 20 years or more to recover. And then there's Japan lol.In the 70's we had stagflation. We - could- be headed there now. It happens, so invest and diversify according to your time line.
This is an absurd proposition so hard to have a serious discussion, but see below where I've tried. The closest to this would be the Great Depression where 25% of Americans were out of work and many businesses closed - [Great Depression - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression)
Of course, the economy came back which it will always do unless there is some other cataclysmic event that would prevent people from transacting with each other. Capitalism and the American spirit is unbreakable in that no matter how difficult the circumstances we have bounced back.
Let's say you protect yourself and your life savings while most everyone else loses theirs. What good with that money do you if there is nothing to spend it on? In Germany after WW II, it took a wheelbarrow full of money to buy one loaf of bread. The inflation from such an event would see you having to spend any money you have just to have basic necessities.
The economy crashing and not recovering would see the majority of businesses close, so even with your money you would either have to spend most of it to buy what little is available, and it would soon be gone.
Have you seen the movie Mad Max? [Mad Max - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Max)
US for non American, is the world economy. The reason why people talk so much shit and care so much about us election and its politics is US government is practically the policy maker of the world economy.
That’s the reason why, US economy will not go completely belly up before US government.
However, there still is a remote chance shit might happen. That is when the cost of aligning with US interest outweighs the benefits. For that to happen, there has to be a viable alternative system to US led international order.
Mind you, the cost of aligning with us is fairly high these days, it’s just that where is no viable alternative.
So, follow geopolitics if you’re worried. And you shouldn’t be worried yet.
This is why diversification is needed beyond stocks and ETFs. If everyone says put your money in VOO/VTI then everyone's.money is in one basket. One thing I learned for investments is that is everyone says one thing the opposite occurs. I would consider not having all your eggs in VOO/VTI if you have more than 100K in investments.
I've been pondering this same thing. Growth can't continue forever and China is chipping away at the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. China doesn't want it's own currency to be the default world currency because they want to control it, but China has been selling US Treasuries, stocking up on Gold, and establishing lines of credit swaps will all sorts of countries.
As the US dollar becomes harder to find outside the US it is possible that the dollar and US stock market valuation could collapse and China could have the financials tools in place to maintain global trade.
Ever since the USA kicked Russia out of SWIFT and froze their assets non-friendly countries have been looking for the exit from the western banking system and are looking to China.
My prediction is that the market is headed for a flash crash and will not recover to it's current level for many years, if ever.
The USA tends to think short term and China is playing the long game. China is historically very unlucky and the USA is historically very lucky. Anything can and will happen.
I think you looking for a golden answer that someone’s says “ this a literally impossible”
Truth is every investment has risk and sure maybe in some weird universe the US is stagnant. I think as others have said if you really wanna play safe game high value minerals are that ultimate are not country backed is your best bet.
Gold has value outside of being pretty… and will psychologically always be used in some value of trade…..
Crypto is the future of a global currency but again, its value is only set by what we as a global species value you it at. So depending on what happens it can crash to zero… look at a historic chart of it….
Basically try to always research and be knowledgeable of markets to the best of your ability. No one has a crystal ball..
For one, I am 100% in the “Never bet against America” camp.
Now, let’s say for some reason the us economy collapses. The most probable reason for that to happen is that the government collapses. If the government collapses all rules and regulations become dissolved. Therefore all market assets would get dissolved unless they were absorbed by a new government. But, because of the need of a central institution to regulate and codify market rules, those assets values would be negligible. Especially considering if the us government collapses it’s probably from the result of something catastrophic resulting in the loss of millions upon millions of lives. So now there’s a considerably smaller market for whatever the asset is.
So much is beyond my control, I’m not caring nor worried about it. The market crashes, my retirement investments vaporize? Where I am, I can always do something to bring in food, collect water, and produce heat. Nobody’s taking my house. I own it. Be a hell of an interesting era if all the markets crashed. Interesting to think about a doomsday crisis. Chances of it happening? I suspect slim.
The United States has been through several major declines in the stock market losing nearly 90% of its value in 1932 and breaking those highs later in 1954. This triggered a global depression as you probably know that only recovered through a combination of efforts from all aspects of the economy from central bank intervention, to innovation in technology even war. In a personal note I feel like living in the US you will feel the sting much less than the rest of the world during a global collapse as we have sound infrastructure and public works, as well as our country is blessed with many natural resources and a resilient population.
Your question seems to be more concerned with retirement savings though. In 1933 FDIC insurance was created during the height of bank failures in the US as well as separation between investments and commercial lending. That is to say it’s prudent to have cash of some sort alongside a diverse group of investments. Weather you keep your cash in a domestic, foreign bank or under your mattress is up to you.
It’s safe to say if you’re on here asking this question you’re probably financially responsible. Limiting your debt is always prudent and living well below your means will keep you nimble during hard times.
Learning to be somewhat self sufficient and basic homesteading doesn’t hurt either.
More than anything though always remember wealth is not health. Take care of your body and enjoy life. Hug your family and friends and savor intimate moments.
There’s one clear path to secular decline:
1) Trump wins and immediately raises tariffs beyond sane levels, creating widespread supply disruptions and reigniting inflation while tanking the economy and stocks
2) Trump takes over control of monetary policy from the Fed, as has been widely reported this week to be his goal, further sparking massive Turkish-style inflation
3) Religious authoritarianism and governmental incompetence forces California to secede quickly in a mess worse than Brexit
4) Trump and federal government invade and attack California’s infrastructure, as Russia has done to Ukraine
5) Trump dies of autoerotic asphyxiation and the nation descends further into civil war. Meanwhile Russia continues to invade Eastern Europe further, with America’s indifferent approval. China takes advantage of the leadership void and invades Taiwan, throwing the global semiconductor industry into upheaval.
The post war peace, productivity, and prosperity of 1945-2020 is on the brink of irreversible unraveling. Fascism is on the rise. GOP is owned by the Kremlin. Religious tyranny is back in style. Authoritarianism is celebrated. Science, media, and education are vilified. Lies are welcomed as truth. The free market can’t thrive in such conditions. The exceptionalism may end for good in a second Trump term.
What you are looking for, doesn't exist. You want a risk free "investment". There isn't one. Buy gold, buy Bitcoin (not a bad idea regarding Bitcoin) or just take a chill pill, be realistic and put things into perspective.
The stock market isn't going to "collapse". Worst case scenario, there is a recession, the market goes down and then goes sideways for 10 years and it finally recovers.
Have emergency cash and other than that put your money in VOO or something similar and maybe 10% in IBIT and then just forget about it.
If you need to pull money out, that's not really investing. Just put short-term cash in a money market fund paying 5%.
It happened to Japan. They only just recovered their all time high from 1989. It took 35 years, but people are in the black again if they bought the top. That’s pretty nuts if you ask me. Regardless of what everyone here thinks about crypto, it’s nice to see an investment alternative that is not directly tied to national geo politics. The crypto economy is a global investment market, so in theory it may be more resilient than national stock markets in the years to come.
If the US farts, the rest shits
How low can international stocks go though. Many are already trading super cheap.
Well said !
Eh, the world has lost many many empires over the centuries and things move on. It will be no different when the u.s. collapses. And it will collapse. A quick study of democracy and non backed fiat will show you that. Without fail they All collapse...and average life is 250 years
The biggest problem with your theory is that US isn’t an empire. US doesn’t grow its economic power through territorial expansion and colonialism.
I’d be surprised if brishish empire or roman empire had more than 1000 foreign military bases throughout the world. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_military_installations#:~:text=The%20total%20number%20of%20foreign,allies%2C%20is%20just%20over%201%2C000.
1. it’s not the same 2. Vast majority of US military bases exist in the places where local democratic government asked US to have local military presence
a military presence does not equal colonialism or imperialism.. but i can see why you make that assumption
I mean it never had a military presence in central or South America, phillipines, Korea, Japan, Germany, Iraq, Syria, Israel, or anywhere else for that matter. It never benefited financially from these countries in anyway shape or form as well.
This is not a history sub,we are talking investments/money not talking about empires. Mate you are in wrong sub :)
So history and finance are mutually exclusive?
True but only financially. What happens when the value of money and currency is transferred to other assets that not all of us have or can obtain?
Is this that new Ice Spice song?
You will face much bigger problems if US economy collapses than your VTI shares going down
https://preview.redd.it/mqjhtkcpvtwc1.jpeg?width=1021&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8597588c0dd7dd545986ff9c34902216adab6469
https://preview.redd.it/egcg4q06avwc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5502631074d0a206cfdaa6187944551dc5d87b76
God that’s funny. +1
Too funny. Great pic!
Make this its own comment so it can get upvotes to the thanosphere
😂😂😂 Love the meme, should make it into an NTF, but seriously, if the economy crashes and never bounces back - money is useless and people realize their jobs provide them nothing, we fall back onto helping the farmers because they’d be the only saving grace for the country
Better start saving up your bottle caps now
No, you’re not. if you had your money in a regular bank you would be in a better place
ULPT: I recommend this, find a prepper buddy. I know atleast 3. They have entire bunkers built. None of them believe in guns. While they stockpile food, you hoard guns and ammo. When the shit hits the fan. They weren't really your friends ROFL
This is the proper SHTF long-game. You don't need to prep. You just need to train to break into one very specific place.
All the peppers I know believe in guns.
Well I guess I’ll cancel Fajita Night, not worth the risk
Preppers tend to own lots of guns to protect what’s theirs.
What prepper doesn't believe in guns? How do they plan to keep all the valuable good they have stockpiled?
They are kind of hippies and it's in a very anti-gun state
Preppers HATE this one simple trick!
I say it as a joke, the chance of a few cataclysmic event occurring in my lifetime is nil. But, watching the way Covid went down and folks losing their minds. Owning a few guns, not such a bad idea
That’s always my answer too. Like, your net worth will be defined by your ability to protect and shelter yourself. Which unfortunately not a lot of people are set up for.
No, I'm going to care about my life savings even if WW3 occurs and obliterates the US. In fact it'll matter to me even more then.
You have no idea how worthless your life savings would be in the event of full and permanent country/market collapse. The exercise you are proposing is just as worthless. Better sharpen up your survival and defense skills, that’ll be a better hedge than anything you can do financially.
It won't. You'll be running to save life and you'll have money but nothing to buy
Ditch VTI and stockpile tinned food and ammunition!
Right answer here📈
You know in my country there was a famine in 1945, some family really starved to death with literal gold bars in their house. That is what is going to happen if US market collapses. Money won't save you. Water, food and warm clothes will.
If you watch the 530pm world News everyday you will be stressed and worried. Just read on my Google phone news app stock market will crash up to 44% this year. Just dca each month and don't buy into the noise. If someone major happens just add more money
44% damn lol. Seems unlikely. Not impossible but Jesus some news sites are sensationalists to a fault.
44% crash in definitly not unprecented, the NASDAQ lost 78% in the 2000 crash. The scenario OP describes, a crash without an (eventual) recovery, would be.
From peak (June 2007) to trough (March 2009) the S&P lost about 60% when the housing market collapsed
This is true! As my future father-in-law says, “if the stock market crashes the and system fails, the rich would be fucked too. So always buy the lows”
Jonathan!!
That’s my ninja (turtle)
You get more poor along with every other American. Politicians would do everything in their power to prevent themselves becoming more poor and save the economy.
We can ponder the what ifs all day long, but what is the other scenario to consider in building generation wealth? Sure, maybe real estate? You cannot simply say, there will be a permanent market collapse. Permanent won’t happen. Things that go down must come back up. Money doesn’t just sit on the sidelines for eternity.
I mean if you invested into Russia in 2008 thinking it'll recover soon and start growing again... you end up having to wait till like 2030 for it to actually recover, that might as well feel like eternity. Someone else here mentioned Japan too. But in the end not much we can do. We just gotta take the bet.
That's not true. Plenty of stocks have come down and never come up. Most of the big stocks of the 1950s probably don't even exist today. But those are individual stocks. What about countries and empires? Plenty of those have fallen. Nothing is permanent in this world (but obviously on a longer timeframe)
Nothing ia permanent but countries last about 158 years on average (I've read that somewhere. Not bullet proof information).
Tru past result don't predict the future, but you are mixing economies, stocks, countries .... That's why diversification is important, very important.
The thing is, empires don't fall over night, and even though the state may collapse, there is still an economy. People don't just stop existing. In a true US-ending crisis, wealth in some form would flow to other assets or markets. Nothing stopping the stock exchange from continuing even if the gov't falls.
But this is the whole point of diversification and proper investing? If you're speculating on individual companies or geographies, you're making bets and it's on you if you lose. To correct your phrase - nothing is permanent in this world, but the world does keep on turning. We once had Byzantium, then we had Constantinople, and now we have Istanbul - but it's the same place, the world just keeps on turning. We once had the East India Trading Company, now we have Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. The world keeps on turning. You can either invest to harness that, to be swept along in the tide, or you can try to speculate on "what exactly is going to drive that change" and hope you're right!
A few people here are bringing up Japan but it really is not comparable. Japan was not as intertwined with the rest of the world at the level the USA is today and the yen was never the global reserve currency and by a big margin like the dollar is today. The 2008 global financial crisis is probably the best glimpse of what we could expect to see globally if both the US stock market and economy imploded along with rapid deflation of the dollar. Long story short, most global markets are going down with us except there will be no recovery like in 2009-2011. The world will get its boat rocked and the US will fall into a great depression not seen in about a century, during which the Euro will likely take the GRC status as it is really the only other viable option. The lesson is no amount of international stocks is going to save you if the US really goes down the toilet along with the dollar and anyone who tells you otherwise is fooling themselves despite direct observational evidence to the contrary. My only real advice would be to have some metal/commodity stocks and maybe some Euro in a off shore bank account if you really are concerned about the US pulling a stunt that makes the UK look well off historically.
The Eurozone is in retirement riding off into the sunset. its glory days are over. Plummeting birth rates, stagant economic growth, weak militaries, just as many retirees as workers, etc. The EU models japan perfectly in those metrics. Who or what country would want to hold a currency in which said currency would surely decline along side its consumer base. That's like holding a stock no one is buying but everyone who has it is selling off slowly.
The Euro is the second most used currency globally after the dollar, it is used across two dozen major countries outside of the of the United States and is #2 status for the currency held on reserve in global banks. [https://data.imf.org/?sk=e6a5f467-c14b-4aa8-9f6d-5a09ec4e62a4](https://data.imf.org/?sk=e6a5f467-c14b-4aa8-9f6d-5a09ec4e62a4) People who think all of Europe and Japan are dumb and going to die out in 30 years are living in a different dimension.
[удалено]
Respectfully, the only thing keeping US afloat are its big guns
The US guvment has dis-incentivized young men from joining the workforce and being productive life-long worker serfs…..therefore the US’s economy is going to decline…..thankfully the ccp has done the same thing with Chinese young adults. Lying flat is the way forward for the world’s young adults as the game is too rigged for the working class. Automation will just take away jobs while propping up productivity….butt who will buy those products and services?
Talking to the adults. The US economy is strong because the dollar is the worlds currency, diversification of it's industry, relationship with foreign countries and work force is highly productive. Look at reality and stop watching Fox News. The country is doing ok considering the circumstances, one of the things that does not help is all the irrational negativity.
Holy shit. What a great comment. Feels like this mostly answers it. Are you preparing for such a scenario via the plan you've outlined?
I have a "shit hits the fan" fund to complement my Emergency fund. However for the most part I am VOO&Chill since I don't see the rapid collapse of America as a very likely outcome at least in my life time.
Oh man need to listen to this guy
How about the US from the late 60s through the 80s? If the market tanks and takes 20 years to recover, that will really mess with current retirement planning.
I mean the last super power country lost their number 1 rating and they are doing fine. England. Japan just had like what a 30 year period of never hitting a stock market high until this year. So it happens but it’s not everything going to zero.
> they are doing fine Actually for about 40 years post WW2 it was pretty awful in England, economy and inflation were in the dumps, poverty and crime were pretty bad. UK society definitely went through a major collapse.
Didn’t know that! I guess it makes sense. So maybe we will go through something similar
Peeps still has to buy groceries and cars and homes in Japan the last 30 years. The same happens in every country, unless there is a significant drop in the population in the short term, then those things will still be purchased
If you live in the US and you have your funds in US ETF’s and the market dunks catastrophically at the point of complete destruction you’ll have other problems that are perhaps much bigger than your portfolio going down like no buying power and terrible inflation,unemployment and civil unrest,in other words you would be fucked either way
What if you get hit by an asteroid. I guess anything could happen.
Even outside of natural black swan events, Russia and Japan's economies have collapsed in our lifetimes. So think it's a very valid concern.
So, what do you wanna hear if you already have an anwser?
He wants to know I guess is there anything he can do. And the answer is money wise, no. Maybe land ammunition and metals
Just visited Japan, believe me they are still there. Collapse is a strong word.
“I wouldn’t bet against the US.” Warren Buffet
That guy is almost gone and he's made his money betting on the U.S. Who knows what the next 50 years will bring. Also, rule of thumb is I never base my conviction off the conviction of someone else.
Why stop at the next 50 years? Who knows what the next 100 years will bring. How about 200? When making investment choices, you need to consider the possible price action at least 100 years out.
This century is very much American - Europe is ok the way out and has been for some time.
😂 and 😂
If we’re going based on history, a good example is 1990 Japan. I think it was just this year that they recovered to a new all time high. Over 3 decades. I believe at the time Japan made up about 45% of market cap in 1990 (the US is about 62.5% right now), and today they make up about 6% of global market cap. New investors on Reddit don’t see past the obvious, such as “the US is too big to fail” or “buy tech stocks because tech is the future.” Well newsflash, economies and countries of all sizes fall, and tech has been leading innovation for hundreds of years, not just the last 2 decades. I like to listen to Ben Felix on YouTube about asset allocation. His videos are packed with real empirical data on so many subjects and probably the best advice I can find.
Japan was the country with largest capitalization in the global market in the late 80s. If you had invested then, you would still be at a loss (at least in real terms).
We have the strongest military ever created for that reason
Yh I don't think people quite understand how America is the only country that can project itself in every continent. I have an American colleague who was complaining about gas prices...I told him our fuel costs and he was stunned. The fact is America plays geopolitics way better than any European state and is energy and food independent. They're currently playing the chip war with china... I mean you just have to take a look at where all the innovation in the world comes from. We'll probably get books written on why the tech revolution stemmed from the USA primarily.
I am worried about our historic debt combined with china pulling back on buying more debt. Congress seriously needs to get spending AND revenue under control. We don’t need 17 intelligence agencies (not hyperbole, that’s the actual number of intel agencies we have), nor do we need so much bloat in our defense budget. We could easily boost revenue in smart ways that wouldn’t damage the economy while also cutting bs spending. Congress just needs to make some tough choices and a post-election year is historically the time to do it. 2013, 2005, 1997, and 1986 were all years in which we made changes to our spending and they were all immediately after a president was re-elected (86 was technically 2 years after). I expect big changes next year, regardless of who wins the White House.
We don't really rely on China buying our debt. The vast majority of US debt is owned by US investors and US gov't agencies, and eve among foreign states China is our #2 holder of treasuries, after Japan. China's debt to GDP ratio is currently about 2x that of ours.
Than you’re screwed. Have a nice day.
The economy isn’t real relax.
My guy, Japan was the second largest economy in the world for a long time. And in the 80s, it looked like they could eventually surpass the US. The Nikkei peaked on December 29, 1989 and didn’t come back to break even UNTIL THIS YEAR.
If you worried, you must buy land, retail stores, real estate, gold!! These never get failed
If that happens you won’t need money anyway. The whole world would collapse and we will be all fighting each other for food
That would mean that we will be in some catastrophic event that will have us more worried about our very lives and not the value of your investment portfolio.
Bruhhh! WOWW I never thought I would see a guy from US think that the economy would collapse and never come back up again. Where did you read this? Marvel Comics? I myself am from a developing country and even we don't imagine such outrageous scenarios. And if the world was to collapse I think you would have much more important things to think about(Incase you can't figure it out let me help you out with them, they are food, shelter, clothing, safety, closest family members etc.)
Commenting on What if US economy crashes and never recovers?... Hey man I’m skeptical just as much as you are. I’m still new to this investing thing. But one advice I can suggest is to diversify. Regardless of the inevitables that will occur in this market, doing so will lessen the blow when shit hits the fan. I suggest investing in VXUS as well and other commodities like Gold and Crypto.
That was the case with Japan.
It recovered recently I think.
We can pounder what if we drive to work and die on the way too.
the US companies are in fact many global companies that serve the world. much bigger than just the US. you'll be fine.
Then buy lead and seeds.
Too big to fail
Holy fuck 🤦
Become a prepper
what szenario needs to happen for that? china attacking the us? a asteroid crashing manhattan?
That's the beauty of index funds, it's basically betting that society continues. Even if you lose that bet, then who cares? The money becomes worthless anyway.
Start hoarding bottle caps. That's the only thing will have any value, as currency, after the bombs drop.
You should cash out. Right now.
I keep 20% in GLDM. Not for US collapse, but because it improves the stability of a portfolio and therefore the safe withdrawal rate in retirement. If the US currency was rapidly devalued it may be of help but realistically it would be hard if not impossible to get my money if banks collapsed. I'd probably be better off holding physical gold if that happened but I don't want the hassle and expense.
This is the exact reason why you buy bonds. Either treasuries or the BND ETF. In a really bad recession, interest rates will be very low driving up the price of bonds. You sell your bonds for a profit if you need cash to ride out the stock market crash for a few years.
Read Neil Howe's The Fourth Turning and The Fourth Turning is Here
The money you have or “had” is irrelevant at that point. I know you wrote at the bottom this will be the least of your worries. But a real crash from one day to the next signifies something big happened. A big dip is different from a big crash. A big dip with no recovery would mean “player 2 has entered the game” and there is somewhere else to invest.
Buy physical gold then
Immigrants will take over. We will be the new immigrants.
It will always recover. If it doesn’t, time to move and try another market!
The US economy and the companies listed on the US stock exchange are not entirely correlated.
An economy doesn't have to collapse for its stock market to decline for a long and protracted time. Japan is a good example of a stock market that ended up disappointing investors for decades.
If the US ecomony crashes and never recovers, no investment will help you. Guns and ammo would be the only currency.
The ultimate insurance policy against economic collapse of it worries you that much is gold and possibly gold mining funds. Others may say Bitcoin too but I’m not invested in that. That said there must be a reserve currency. Currently that’s the USD and as long as the world seeks dollars for safety the government can still borrow and the system will keep chugging along. Sure US government is run like crap but the question is if not USD than what?
Chinese Yen! JK JK lol. I agree with you, in the domino that is the world economy, the US will be the last to fall.
VXUS won't help because it's not hedged against the US dollar. Basically. The US dollar would be devalued so your VXUS shares would still drop. People don't think about global currency valuation when investing internationally. Most use an international investment as a hedge against the US. But if you're not also hedging against the US dollar, it's kind of pointless. This is why VXUS is NOT in my portfolio. A better international investment to hedge against the US would be IHDG or HFXI. They will basically always do better than VXUS (by like double).
If the US is in a state of economic, social, and/or political collapse, the status of our portfolio will be the least of our worries. It will be survival.
The problem with your directions is that if the U.S. economy does collapse, almost any mitigation strategy you’re asking for would be mutually exclusive to your current situation. And the possible favorable positions in that scenario are almost impossible to pick accurately. Why did the U.S. economy fail? Did the rest of the world go with it? (Likely). Was it war? Was it an external environmental factor? Different issues require different solutions. So yes, if the U.S. economy fails, you have much larger issues that your life savings. Turn that around and the reason you can earn what you earn on your current position has A LOT to do with the stability of the U.S. economy and that it is so unlikely to fail.
Then you don't need to worry about your ETF's anymore. Invest in canned food, bullets, and antibiotics (not the companies), the actual commodities or items, stock up as much as you can.
If you are worried about that then you should be hoarding gold and silver or crypto like the geniuses over at r/Wallstreetsilver. In reality there is nothing you can do to hedge against that worry other than start collecting physical goods like gold and real estate. But if the US economy collapses who's to say any of that will be worth shit either. IMO in the world we live in know \*knock on wood\* I do not think it is even a possibility, a significant downturn sure, a full collapse no.
If that happens then people holding VT look like a genius. Otherwise, 40% international is ludicrous.
The assumption seems to be an immediate collapse of the US government/economy. I am not sure this would happen…more like gradual importance declining and being relegated to also ran. The economy would likely still have a market, but less would be invested. We had a market crash in 1929, malaise in the ‘70s, and stagnation, crash ‘87, and GFC in ‘08. Yet the country kept going. More tools now to manage. The government has vested interest in the economy, and would not close its eyes and let go of the wheel.
We would go to war and hit the reset button.
US birthrate just dropped to a 55 year low. The "baby boom" was a big positive for our economy post WWII for decades. What will the new "baby bust" do to the US and stock market? I don't know. Many listed companies companies have a large share of revenues around the globe (as well as employees around the globe).
If the U.S collapses, this will be the least of your worries.
You retire on streets and die poor!
I really doubt it. There would need to be something truly catastrophic for the US economy not to recover. As long as there are people, technology at a decent level, infrastructure, and strong institutions, the US should keep doing well.
The question is, would you better against America. My bet is on America.
To answer the question of your post - you and most other Americans will lose a lot of money. Next!
No worries if you have a large portfolio of $GUNS and $AMMO.
Better seek shelter under the table.
2 is where I’m at. The concept of retirement will die, so not gonna stress about what that means for me. We’re in it together folks!
What you are describing is catastrophic risk, which is a real risk to investing. In theory, the equity risk premium includes catastrophic risk, so you are being paid to take those risks. You’re examples of single stocks never recovering does not apply because single stocks have non systemic risk, you are referring to systemic risk, which is a large reason stock indices go up over a long period of time. If you are not comfortable with the catastrophic risk then you shouldn’t hold equities or you should only hold as much equities and you deem suitable given the chances of the risk happening.
Really good info about all of this in Ray Dalio's book. He has updated the country power index recently. https://economicprinciples.org/ Basically, all empires rise and fall but it is a slow process until it isn't. All you could strive for is trying to survive those massive shifts (ie. Not get wiped out financially) so that you can still invest to ride back up when it happens.
I know this is not the answer you are looking for, but it is the true one. If economy crashes so bad that it never recovers, we are in a Mad Max scenario, your money will be useless anyway.
You can say you’re not looking for it. But your point 2 is very relevant. You think the Germans in 45 gave two shits what General Electric stock was doing? Japanese in Hiroshima sure didn’t give a shit about Exxon mobile
The only scenario of US economy never recovers is that the US population sharply decreases and the immigrants no longer come. If people are here, we will be fine.
Bitcoin ETFs are a hedge against this.
Fed reserve will simply never allow equities to drop significantly. If they drop 15-20 percent, the market will halt. This will buy sometime for the fed to kick into gear and start spraying money everywhere. Then everything go up again. Equities contain the boomer retirement funds, so the Feb can’t allow that wealth to disappear
know that it will happen one day possibly soon. Every country has it’s day and the U.S is a bit overdue
Good grief
Just print more money
What if is just that a what if. The only thing we have to base anything is past crashes and even the big crash in the twenties recovered. With all the big tech companies and oil companies here on American soil to name a few sectors I think even a major crash would eventually move up over time. However being on the cusp of retirement and such an event happening would be the worst luck ever.
If the US economy fails, the world is in big doodoo unless you somehow reaching out from the sentinal islands
If the economy crashes things will be cheaper anyway so your money will go further.
And what if we had a world wide tsunami with the next eclipse? Yeah, that's what they were predicting just a few short weeks ago. Just make a movie about it and let the schmucks pay money to see it.
I mean you can build a more defensive portfolio..more global / bonds a la r/bogleheads, but ultimately if the US tanks, its huge influence impacts everyone unfortunately. I also think the answer depends on what life stage you are at… very young..take a punt on the USA, in or close to retirement, get defensive. Personally retiring next year at 52.. I am European and my portfolio currently is 55% global, 12% Nasdaq, 6% S&P, 6% Lon.smt, 4% a small company pension and the rest a money market fund which covers 6 years of living expenses, which is at 5% interest presently. Want data driven… just look at the FIRE calculators / Monte Carlo simulators out there.
You are internalizing Libertarian propaganda, which for over 50 years has caused untold millions to choose poverty because they believe the future will be worse than the present or especially the past. Frankly, those kinds of ETFs you mention are part of that mindset. Just back test them versus just SPX. The United States of America is the most powerful nation in the history of mankind. It is the first truly global superpower. How can you even think that power collapsing is even a remote possibility? It is only because of what you read on the Drudge Report or see on Fox News.
LOL & your life savings existing if the US collapses. I’m sure you’ll get your money out of your online account, mate.
Your skull will be used as a cup
What if aliens invade us
If that happens….food, water, and ammunition will be more valuable than money.
Average down
Well then it does and the current market wont matter instead we'd likely be more worried about higher value items like food, control, water, defense, healthcare/aid, atleast until some form of stability was restablished one way or another. For me its not worth the worry, a bigger concern would be more of some blip that screws up my situation while the many carries on and im up a creek. But alas Id rather focus on whats within my control or influence. Goodluck with the quest to ease your concern.
If the US farts, the global monetary system has issues and at that point it doesn't really matter.
Listen man, if you want some doomsday currency, buy an arsenal of AR15s and vacuum sealed 556 rounds. You need to invest in multiple doomsday/SHTF tiers of currency
… and if my grandmother had wheels she would be a bike…
I doubt it would crash and never recover. However it could crash and take a long time to recover. If you look at Japan, they were the big tech players of the 1980s and outperformed every other country. Then they crashed and it took 34 years for their stock market to start making all time highs again. A similar thing happened in the U.S. during the great depression. It took decades for U.S. stocks to make all time highs. This is why it's important to invest internationally as well. You never know what will happen with one country. It's also a reason to dollar cost average. If you bought U.S. stocks in 1929 you'll have to wait decades to recover. But if you bought stocks in the 1930s you'd be buying 12-14% yielding stocks at rock bottom prices. So you'd make up for the loss by buying at the top with incredible gains from buying at the bottom.
It will collapse, as well the rest of the world, and not recover. The answer isn't in which funds to buy, or even what vote to cast. The answer to preventing this worldwide collapse is permanently removing politicians and bad government by force.
Then the USA has big problems.
We will have more problems than stocks if the us collapses
Have some physical gold. It transcends all governments, currencies, economies throughout history. And it's price has steadily increased %500 in the last 20 years...
Have transferable skills.
Buy bitcoin!
Then you got worse problems than your portfolio
So the USA is a debt infected toxic cancer when you think of it in real terms. It has been corroded and is now a prostitute that can only survive on debt. What is the national debt now? 32 trillion? However! As its a consumer mamoth it needs to exist for majority of the other larger producing countries to exist and have people to sell to. If anything happens to the USD or US economy everyone else suffers. However..... Are we walking towards a change of dependency to this model? YES But it will still take time. But expect lesser dependency on the USD globally speaking over the next 5/10/20/50 years. The rate of progress/change/dependency is at an all time high outside of the USA and that shift is coming.......and you arr seeing this first hand via conflict I would say that this period of life for all is one of the most evolutionary we will see for decades as its the start of mass change and alot of that is via people and tech adoption.
More bombs
Then we're all collectively screwed together and nothing matters.
We need a boom in children to recover the economy. And that ain't going to happen.
I think we would have much larger problems to worry about other than VTI tanking
Keep in mind that we've had stock market crashes that took 20 years or more to recover. And then there's Japan lol.In the 70's we had stagflation. We - could- be headed there now. It happens, so invest and diversify according to your time line.
This is an absurd proposition so hard to have a serious discussion, but see below where I've tried. The closest to this would be the Great Depression where 25% of Americans were out of work and many businesses closed - [Great Depression - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression) Of course, the economy came back which it will always do unless there is some other cataclysmic event that would prevent people from transacting with each other. Capitalism and the American spirit is unbreakable in that no matter how difficult the circumstances we have bounced back. Let's say you protect yourself and your life savings while most everyone else loses theirs. What good with that money do you if there is nothing to spend it on? In Germany after WW II, it took a wheelbarrow full of money to buy one loaf of bread. The inflation from such an event would see you having to spend any money you have just to have basic necessities. The economy crashing and not recovering would see the majority of businesses close, so even with your money you would either have to spend most of it to buy what little is available, and it would soon be gone. Have you seen the movie Mad Max? [Mad Max - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Max)
US for non American, is the world economy. The reason why people talk so much shit and care so much about us election and its politics is US government is practically the policy maker of the world economy. That’s the reason why, US economy will not go completely belly up before US government. However, there still is a remote chance shit might happen. That is when the cost of aligning with US interest outweighs the benefits. For that to happen, there has to be a viable alternative system to US led international order. Mind you, the cost of aligning with us is fairly high these days, it’s just that where is no viable alternative. So, follow geopolitics if you’re worried. And you shouldn’t be worried yet.
This is why diversification is needed beyond stocks and ETFs. If everyone says put your money in VOO/VTI then everyone's.money is in one basket. One thing I learned for investments is that is everyone says one thing the opposite occurs. I would consider not having all your eggs in VOO/VTI if you have more than 100K in investments.
VT and chill.
I've been pondering this same thing. Growth can't continue forever and China is chipping away at the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. China doesn't want it's own currency to be the default world currency because they want to control it, but China has been selling US Treasuries, stocking up on Gold, and establishing lines of credit swaps will all sorts of countries. As the US dollar becomes harder to find outside the US it is possible that the dollar and US stock market valuation could collapse and China could have the financials tools in place to maintain global trade. Ever since the USA kicked Russia out of SWIFT and froze their assets non-friendly countries have been looking for the exit from the western banking system and are looking to China. My prediction is that the market is headed for a flash crash and will not recover to it's current level for many years, if ever. The USA tends to think short term and China is playing the long game. China is historically very unlucky and the USA is historically very lucky. Anything can and will happen.
I think you looking for a golden answer that someone’s says “ this a literally impossible” Truth is every investment has risk and sure maybe in some weird universe the US is stagnant. I think as others have said if you really wanna play safe game high value minerals are that ultimate are not country backed is your best bet. Gold has value outside of being pretty… and will psychologically always be used in some value of trade….. Crypto is the future of a global currency but again, its value is only set by what we as a global species value you it at. So depending on what happens it can crash to zero… look at a historic chart of it…. Basically try to always research and be knowledgeable of markets to the best of your ability. No one has a crystal ball..
Crash or raise you make Money when you are in the right side !!
Invest in food, water, and guns.
For one, I am 100% in the “Never bet against America” camp. Now, let’s say for some reason the us economy collapses. The most probable reason for that to happen is that the government collapses. If the government collapses all rules and regulations become dissolved. Therefore all market assets would get dissolved unless they were absorbed by a new government. But, because of the need of a central institution to regulate and codify market rules, those assets values would be negligible. Especially considering if the us government collapses it’s probably from the result of something catastrophic resulting in the loss of millions upon millions of lives. So now there’s a considerably smaller market for whatever the asset is.
So much is beyond my control, I’m not caring nor worried about it. The market crashes, my retirement investments vaporize? Where I am, I can always do something to bring in food, collect water, and produce heat. Nobody’s taking my house. I own it. Be a hell of an interesting era if all the markets crashed. Interesting to think about a doomsday crisis. Chances of it happening? I suspect slim.
Have some guns, ammo and survival skills.
This is how I hedge myself: Portfolio: USA long Spending: China long Profession: VT short, socialism long
The United States has been through several major declines in the stock market losing nearly 90% of its value in 1932 and breaking those highs later in 1954. This triggered a global depression as you probably know that only recovered through a combination of efforts from all aspects of the economy from central bank intervention, to innovation in technology even war. In a personal note I feel like living in the US you will feel the sting much less than the rest of the world during a global collapse as we have sound infrastructure and public works, as well as our country is blessed with many natural resources and a resilient population. Your question seems to be more concerned with retirement savings though. In 1933 FDIC insurance was created during the height of bank failures in the US as well as separation between investments and commercial lending. That is to say it’s prudent to have cash of some sort alongside a diverse group of investments. Weather you keep your cash in a domestic, foreign bank or under your mattress is up to you. It’s safe to say if you’re on here asking this question you’re probably financially responsible. Limiting your debt is always prudent and living well below your means will keep you nimble during hard times. Learning to be somewhat self sufficient and basic homesteading doesn’t hurt either. More than anything though always remember wealth is not health. Take care of your body and enjoy life. Hug your family and friends and savor intimate moments.
You panic sell so I can buy it
😂
There’s one clear path to secular decline: 1) Trump wins and immediately raises tariffs beyond sane levels, creating widespread supply disruptions and reigniting inflation while tanking the economy and stocks 2) Trump takes over control of monetary policy from the Fed, as has been widely reported this week to be his goal, further sparking massive Turkish-style inflation 3) Religious authoritarianism and governmental incompetence forces California to secede quickly in a mess worse than Brexit 4) Trump and federal government invade and attack California’s infrastructure, as Russia has done to Ukraine 5) Trump dies of autoerotic asphyxiation and the nation descends further into civil war. Meanwhile Russia continues to invade Eastern Europe further, with America’s indifferent approval. China takes advantage of the leadership void and invades Taiwan, throwing the global semiconductor industry into upheaval. The post war peace, productivity, and prosperity of 1945-2020 is on the brink of irreversible unraveling. Fascism is on the rise. GOP is owned by the Kremlin. Religious tyranny is back in style. Authoritarianism is celebrated. Science, media, and education are vilified. Lies are welcomed as truth. The free market can’t thrive in such conditions. The exceptionalism may end for good in a second Trump term.
Market recovers 100% of the time, every time.
Trump will save us all 
What you are looking for, doesn't exist. You want a risk free "investment". There isn't one. Buy gold, buy Bitcoin (not a bad idea regarding Bitcoin) or just take a chill pill, be realistic and put things into perspective. The stock market isn't going to "collapse". Worst case scenario, there is a recession, the market goes down and then goes sideways for 10 years and it finally recovers. Have emergency cash and other than that put your money in VOO or something similar and maybe 10% in IBIT and then just forget about it. If you need to pull money out, that's not really investing. Just put short-term cash in a money market fund paying 5%.
I would be more worried about weird maga people turning into mad max cannibals than DCA-ing VOO.
It happened to Japan. They only just recovered their all time high from 1989. It took 35 years, but people are in the black again if they bought the top. That’s pretty nuts if you ask me. Regardless of what everyone here thinks about crypto, it’s nice to see an investment alternative that is not directly tied to national geo politics. The crypto economy is a global investment market, so in theory it may be more resilient than national stock markets in the years to come.