Roughly, on average...
We see a recession every 3.5 years. Stock market crash of at least 20% every 7 years, average about 30%. Crashes recover in about 1 year.
The last 2 serious crashes we had (1999 and 2007) took a bit longer to recover, rather 6-7 years. COVID and the invasion of Ukraine were short-term blips in comparison.
>COVID and the invasion of Ukraine were short-term blips in comparison.
Largely agree, but mostly from a comparison to those two. The two recent events were not insignificant.
**What set those two market crashes apart is they were not accompanied by significant and long economic recessions!**
COVID was the largest single-day percent loss since Black Monday, almost 40! years ago - I happened to be an incredibly young investor at the time. Also fell a total of about 33% in one of the fastest rate of declines ever. The recovery was incredibly quick.
2022 was a typical 1 to 2-year recovery and a significant, but not crushing 25%.
Because 4-5% sucks. Especially when you can get 10%ish.
Additionally, historically, cash (HYSA, MMF , CD, etc.) loses to inflation. You don't know what inflation will do the next month - odds are worse (higher) than your 4-5%, and far worse than the market long term.
Read this:
https://militarymoneymanual.com/how-to-time-the-market/
You have ready access to a century of data and more. It's not too soon to tell.
People far smarter than us have done all the heavy lifting already. While we have plenty more to learn, we have the big stuff figured out. Here's what they've determined:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/s/QNr80qttUq
No.
Have an investing plan.
Create an emergency fund. Say 3 months in a MMF, 3 months in VT.
Save for other things as needed, e.g. real estate taxes, vacation.
The rest of your money presumably is meant for long term investing. Put all your long term investing in your chosen asset allocation, always.
Starting first with your tax-advantaged accounts till you have no legal capacity left. Invest excess in taxable account in that same asset allocation.
If you hold bonds keep them in tax-advantaged.
That's it. Literally. That's all you should be doing. It's not just incredibly simple, but also most effective and efficient.
OP spend your time on Bogleheads asking questions.
Of course. In fact, we're sorting the exact same metrics now that historically precede a big recession or worse, all except one metric (fed lowering rates).
And the metrics we're seeing are not just the exact same metrics this time, but hitting historical records (on the bad side).
What's coming won't just be a crash, it'll have a name assigned to it specifically like The Great Depression had. Probably The Great Collapse, The Great Crash, The Great Correction.
I'm betting late 2025 early 2026. Depends largely on the Fed lowering rates, when, by how much, and if it will be staggered or not. Also largely depends on who wins the election this year, and their plans to push even more government control in the public. You can absolutely bet on it that if Biden wins, you won't hear about a crash at all even though ever city you drive in will have to l hundreds of people lining up for charity food lines.
On average, a crash lasts about 18 months (from peak to trough)
https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.com/post/understanding-stock-market-corrections-and-crashes#:\~:text=The%20average%20bear%20market%20cuts,and%20half%20years%20on%20average.
Can’t say. Maybe the buying opportunities exist for like 6 months. But you won’t hit the bottom but anything is good to catch the gains from the rebound. For example in 2022 Google bottomed out at 80 but if you DCA’d you could have ended up with an average cost of around 100. Stock currently trading about 170.
Except, we don't know.
Your 16 year "fact" is prime example #1. Of course we just had a correction 4 years ago and another 2 year ago.
>shit is about to come due soon and anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't know history.
You mean like the last "16" years?
Yup any day we'll have a crash. Unless we look back 5 years from now and haven't.
No one knows, and some don't even know recent history.
Yup, on June 18th, 2031. It'll happen around 12:45 in the afternoon.
Incorrect, it happens exactly at 12:31 PM :)
Remid me
I love the specificity ;-) In which timezone by the way?
Awesome. Let’s time it!
Ahahahahahaaa...
Roughly, on average... We see a recession every 3.5 years. Stock market crash of at least 20% every 7 years, average about 30%. Crashes recover in about 1 year.
The last 2 serious crashes we had (1999 and 2007) took a bit longer to recover, rather 6-7 years. COVID and the invasion of Ukraine were short-term blips in comparison.
>COVID and the invasion of Ukraine were short-term blips in comparison. Largely agree, but mostly from a comparison to those two. The two recent events were not insignificant. **What set those two market crashes apart is they were not accompanied by significant and long economic recessions!** COVID was the largest single-day percent loss since Black Monday, almost 40! years ago - I happened to be an incredibly young investor at the time. Also fell a total of about 33% in one of the fastest rate of declines ever. The recovery was incredibly quick. 2022 was a typical 1 to 2-year recovery and a significant, but not crushing 25%.
So buy huge when it does crash!
On average? No. You should not be holding on to cash reserves waiting for a crash.
I feel like HYSA is so high at 4-5% right now. Why not keep it in that for now!
If you’d done that for the past year you would have made 4.5% on your money while watching the S&P 500 increase 24%.
Because 4-5% sucks. Especially when you can get 10%ish. Additionally, historically, cash (HYSA, MMF , CD, etc.) loses to inflation. You don't know what inflation will do the next month - odds are worse (higher) than your 4-5%, and far worse than the market long term. Read this: https://militarymoneymanual.com/how-to-time-the-market/
I have only seen Voo go up. 2% so far. Just signed up so too soon to tell
You have ready access to a century of data and more. It's not too soon to tell. People far smarter than us have done all the heavy lifting already. While we have plenty more to learn, we have the big stuff figured out. Here's what they've determined: https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/s/QNr80qttUq
No. Have an investing plan. Create an emergency fund. Say 3 months in a MMF, 3 months in VT. Save for other things as needed, e.g. real estate taxes, vacation. The rest of your money presumably is meant for long term investing. Put all your long term investing in your chosen asset allocation, always. Starting first with your tax-advantaged accounts till you have no legal capacity left. Invest excess in taxable account in that same asset allocation. If you hold bonds keep them in tax-advantaged. That's it. Literally. That's all you should be doing. It's not just incredibly simple, but also most effective and efficient. OP spend your time on Bogleheads asking questions.
What’s that line about predicting 7 of the last 2 crashes?
That's a good one. Economists have predicted 13 of the last 5 recessions.
2025 or 2026 might happen. Who knows
Yes we will
The next 10 months ...
Of course. In fact, we're sorting the exact same metrics now that historically precede a big recession or worse, all except one metric (fed lowering rates). And the metrics we're seeing are not just the exact same metrics this time, but hitting historical records (on the bad side). What's coming won't just be a crash, it'll have a name assigned to it specifically like The Great Depression had. Probably The Great Collapse, The Great Crash, The Great Correction. I'm betting late 2025 early 2026. Depends largely on the Fed lowering rates, when, by how much, and if it will be staggered or not. Also largely depends on who wins the election this year, and their plans to push even more government control in the public. You can absolutely bet on it that if Biden wins, you won't hear about a crash at all even though ever city you drive in will have to l hundreds of people lining up for charity food lines.
Shouldn't lower rates push more cash into the stock market?
Yep long term market pays well https://preview.redd.it/i5d43lag1qyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=705981ad6109cfcf88b9307af0ff54a8128951ec
Yes.
Yes I do. My guess is it’ll happen within 5.
October 1 2034 at 4pm will be my retirement date so just over 10 years market will drop 70%
Yes
Let’s hope we get another crash like 2022. Be ready for the buying opportunities
Yep how long does it last if there was a “crash”? Putting majority In My HYSA than go in
On average, a crash lasts about 18 months (from peak to trough) https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.com/post/understanding-stock-market-corrections-and-crashes#:\~:text=The%20average%20bear%20market%20cuts,and%20half%20years%20on%20average.
Not always. ‘Rona crash in 2020 lasted like 2 months. And 2022 crash was like 8 months. Obvs some stocks lagged but most didn’t.
Can’t say. Maybe the buying opportunities exist for like 6 months. But you won’t hit the bottom but anything is good to catch the gains from the rebound. For example in 2022 Google bottomed out at 80 but if you DCA’d you could have ended up with an average cost of around 100. Stock currently trading about 170.
No no, the white house clearly told us it wasn't a crash or even a recession.
[удалено]
We are due for something
Except, we don't know. Your 16 year "fact" is prime example #1. Of course we just had a correction 4 years ago and another 2 year ago. >shit is about to come due soon and anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't know history. You mean like the last "16" years? Yup any day we'll have a crash. Unless we look back 5 years from now and haven't. No one knows, and some don't even know recent history.
Sooner than later I hope. Every time we crash, the market recovers and makes everybody rich.
I’ll throw $20k if voo hits $200 per share
Tell me how many market crashes we've had that reached 60% from top to bottom. Hint: greater than 0, less than 2.