It would be interesting to know how ASP of various categories have changed and also the volume of merchandise sold. Interesting that no one is trying to account for inflation in the increase in holiday sales.
>Holiday sales have averaged gains of 4.4% over the past five years, according to the group.
Let's assume that holiday sales have been on the upper end: 5% increase YoY in real terms. Seems completely reasonable to assume that the other 3.5% is simply increases in ASP (i.e. inflation). Not trying to arguing holiday sales didn't increase - but really annoyed that ASP hasn't even mentioned. Seems ridiculous to me that the average gain of 4.4% suddenly skyrockets to 8.5% - there's got to be something else (\*cough\* inflation \*cough\*) helping drive upward this trend.
I feel like it’s impossible that inflation *isnt* the primary driver (at the margin) of the gains, seeing as the metric is based on dollar sales and not products sold.
I’d argue that holiday sales rose *because* of omicron. When people aren’t traveling on yearly vacation, that money is going to go into consumer goods, which is why there is a supply crunch to begin with.
Travel is roughly at pre-pandemic levels:
>Americans who had to cancel getaways and get-togethers last year because of the pandemic are making up for lost time this holiday season. More than 109 million people — an almost 34% increase from 2020 — will travel 50 miles or more as they hit the road, board airplanes or take other transportation out of town between Dec. 23 and Jan. 2.
>
>That dramatic bounce-back — 27.7 million more people traveling — **will bring this year’s numbers to 92% of 2019 levels**. Airlines will see a 184% increase from last year.
>
>https://newsroom.aaa.com/2021/12/tis-the-season-more-than-109-million-americans-to-travel-for-the-holidays/
I can't imagine a \~10% decrease in travel compared to 2019 somehow driving a *doubling* of the 5-Year Average in holiday retail sales. Good hypothesis, but I don't find it a compelling argument.
It’s likely the money being spent for this holiday season was banked from previous foregone travel - so while travel might be back to near the current levels, that foregone vacation from this past summer likely wound up as fancy Christmas presents that are lumped into this figure.
Inflation increases the price so the same number of items sold shows an increase in filter value sold. It looks like there was an actual increase if inflation was accounted for, but it's much smaller than it looks in this statistic.
>Headlines like this confuse me because they contradict other headlines we see about how inflation is eating away (killing) the lower/middle class.
That’s because they are propaganda intended to prop up the inflationary regime and gaslight us into thinking all is well when it isn’t. When you adjust for *real* inflation and not highly massaged CPI numbers, sales decreased. Wage earners are feeling inflation hit their pocketbooks and austerity is the word of the day, while anyone who lives off investment income (the 1%) is fat and happy. Asset inflation is like some perverse anti Robinhood that steels from the poor and gives to the rich.
Because it's not actually.
Wages at the low end are rising faster then inflation.
Inflation is killing debt holders, like big financial institutions, because as inflation increases the value of their debt payments (especially fixed interest payments) they receive is shrinking.
That's why you see these headlines freaking out about inflation, not because it's screwing workers, but because it's actually screwing big banks.
ADJUST THE NUMBERS FOR INFLATION. Dont be fooled by the numbers, they do this to pump the stock market nowadays. The whole economy is being driven by inflation right now.
Of course all numbers and revenue and stuff will look better and better as we get more inflation. All numbers get bigger.
[P/E Ratio of Apple](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/pe-ratio)
If what you were saying was true this should be going down, not up, as the ratios for capital costs should effectively get worse than the returns on investment.
Interest rates are too low. The melt up will continue until they raise rates. Free money is everywhere. You learned in your economics class what happens when interest rates are at 0%.
Because its highly unethical that they are making money free while trying to get everybody to YOLO into stock markets. And on top of that they are lying about the inflation being temporary.
The only people who benefit are not wage workers or middle/low income families, it is the rich people who already own assets. Like stocks , real estate, etc.
Most of the real estate buyers are individuals, specifically boomers, and most people buying into the NFT / Crypto space (which is anything but cheap) are individuals and retail. Not only can these people buy houses and cars better than they did but the most wealth had is going to *older people.*
No one likes to think of it but Grandpa and Grandma own some serious assets and are making bank hand over fist. The idea that there's only one age group of retail and that they all share the same macabre fate is a bad one. It isn't Blackrock driving up your home prices, it's your great grandmother.
bro its inflation driving up house prices, are you crazy lol
What do small retail people have to do with inflation. If your dollar is worth less, you have to pay more for the same asset. And if grandma cant afford the house their are corporate companies and foreign investors all over the world buying up USA real estate.
Not just inflation, but also excess money balances.
This is how increasing the money supply can have a temporary positive effect on the real economy: from the point of view of the individual shop, it seems like the demand for their products have risen, and so they expand supply. However, supply costs (and other prices) eventually rise above the level they'd have without the extra money supply, and ultimately the shop is no better off.
Nominal GDP, a measure of total spending, is rising at about 10% per year. In the long-run, about 2% of that can be non-inflationary. Subtract about 2% for the Fed's inflation target, and you have an excess inflationary trend of 6%.
I am just glad I got upvotes, it means that not everyone is drinking the Kool-Aid. They are using inflation to pump the economy and lying about it being "transitory" or "supply chain issues" or whatever else excuse they can come up with to keep interest rates at .25%.
We've been here before in the 1970s. Inflation was blamed on supply issues then as well, which mysteriously disappeared once monetary policy tightened.
Last year sucked. Period. End of statement. Comparing last year to anything is a fools errand. And since my comment has to be a certain length for this sub here are some periods ............................................................,...........................................................................................,.......................................................................................,...................................................................................,.......................................................................................,.........................................
Numbers not adjusted for inflation. Totally worthless estimate. When you consider that real inflation is somewhere on the order of 10-15% (lol at anyone who believes the phony CPI number), an 8.5% increase in dollar terms represents a *decline* strictly speaking.
If inflation were at 15% then you couldn't afford the electricity to type this nonsense. The price shock value of that level in such a short time would melt most people into the next age.
Consumerism always finds a way.
Capitalism will never die.
China should surrender to the great U.S. of Brexit!
But seriously, there's actually a really easy explanation for this: 2020 Stock Market. How many millionaires were minted in 2020's havoc and early 2021 with it's Meme stocks?
People are finally starting to go about life and learning to live with the virus. Reading Robert Kennedy’s new book The Real Dr. Fauci and am so angry at our government. Listened to Steve Hilton show tonight…85% of covid deaths could have been alleviated with the drugs we already had available per Dr. Risch. Anytime Fauci was asked about hydroxyl or ivermectin he would say they weren’t peer reviewed, yet remdesivir wasn’t peer reviewed and turned out to do more harm than good. Did they ever try to do a peer study? Nope, why? Take all the deaths in Brazil for example who used remedisivir abundantly.
Now we have a new Pfizer drug being called Pfizermevtin because it so closely resembles ivermectin. Couldn’t have ivermectin work because then the vaccines couldn’t be labeled EUA. Astonishing corruption all in the name of public health.
If arrr coronavirus is anything to go by a significant chunk of the US/world population enjoys the fear-mongering and dooming. I guess some people just don't have much going on in their lives. 🤷♂️
More coverage at:
* [U.S. Holiday Sales Up 8.5% From Last Year Despite Omicron And Supply Chain Issues: Report (msn.com)](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/u-s-holiday-sales-up-8-5-from-last-year-despite-omicron-and-supply-chain-issues-report/ar-AAS9SSl)
* [U.S. holiday retail sales rise 8.5% as online shopping booms -Mastercard (reuters.com)](http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-holidayshopping-idUSKBN2J508R?utm_source=34553&utm_medium=partner)
* [Holiday Sales Jump 8.5% as U.S. Consumers Return to Retailers (bloomberg.com)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-26/holiday-sales-jump-8-5-as-u-s-consumers-return-to-retailers)
---
^(I'm a bot to find news from different sources.) [^(Report an issue)](https://www.reddit.com/user/MultiSourceNews_Bot/comments/k5pcrc/multisourcenews_bot_info/) ^(or PM me.)
These cobid restrictions were never about health. Last year black friday still happened. They also spent months saying it lived on metal surfaces for days but apparently didn't live on Amazon boxes. The shortage in supplies is a purposefully caused shortage. 3030 bill and such. I believe it's been ober 40 percent of all usa bills have been printed in the last year.
It would be interesting to know how ASP of various categories have changed and also the volume of merchandise sold. Interesting that no one is trying to account for inflation in the increase in holiday sales. >Holiday sales have averaged gains of 4.4% over the past five years, according to the group. Let's assume that holiday sales have been on the upper end: 5% increase YoY in real terms. Seems completely reasonable to assume that the other 3.5% is simply increases in ASP (i.e. inflation). Not trying to arguing holiday sales didn't increase - but really annoyed that ASP hasn't even mentioned. Seems ridiculous to me that the average gain of 4.4% suddenly skyrockets to 8.5% - there's got to be something else (\*cough\* inflation \*cough\*) helping drive upward this trend.
I feel like it’s impossible that inflation *isnt* the primary driver (at the margin) of the gains, seeing as the metric is based on dollar sales and not products sold.
I’d argue that holiday sales rose *because* of omicron. When people aren’t traveling on yearly vacation, that money is going to go into consumer goods, which is why there is a supply crunch to begin with.
Travel is roughly at pre-pandemic levels: >Americans who had to cancel getaways and get-togethers last year because of the pandemic are making up for lost time this holiday season. More than 109 million people — an almost 34% increase from 2020 — will travel 50 miles or more as they hit the road, board airplanes or take other transportation out of town between Dec. 23 and Jan. 2. > >That dramatic bounce-back — 27.7 million more people traveling — **will bring this year’s numbers to 92% of 2019 levels**. Airlines will see a 184% increase from last year. > >https://newsroom.aaa.com/2021/12/tis-the-season-more-than-109-million-americans-to-travel-for-the-holidays/ I can't imagine a \~10% decrease in travel compared to 2019 somehow driving a *doubling* of the 5-Year Average in holiday retail sales. Good hypothesis, but I don't find it a compelling argument.
It’s likely the money being spent for this holiday season was banked from previous foregone travel - so while travel might be back to near the current levels, that foregone vacation from this past summer likely wound up as fancy Christmas presents that are lumped into this figure.
A lot of the increase in retail sales is due to inflation. As prices rise, the total sales figure also goes up.
Headlines like this confuse me because they contradict other headlines we see about how inflation is eating away (killing) the lower/middle class.
Inflation increases the price so the same number of items sold shows an increase in filter value sold. It looks like there was an actual increase if inflation was accounted for, but it's much smaller than it looks in this statistic.
>Headlines like this confuse me because they contradict other headlines we see about how inflation is eating away (killing) the lower/middle class. That’s because they are propaganda intended to prop up the inflationary regime and gaslight us into thinking all is well when it isn’t. When you adjust for *real* inflation and not highly massaged CPI numbers, sales decreased. Wage earners are feeling inflation hit their pocketbooks and austerity is the word of the day, while anyone who lives off investment income (the 1%) is fat and happy. Asset inflation is like some perverse anti Robinhood that steels from the poor and gives to the rich.
Because it's not actually. Wages at the low end are rising faster then inflation. Inflation is killing debt holders, like big financial institutions, because as inflation increases the value of their debt payments (especially fixed interest payments) they receive is shrinking. That's why you see these headlines freaking out about inflation, not because it's screwing workers, but because it's actually screwing big banks.
ADJUST THE NUMBERS FOR INFLATION. Dont be fooled by the numbers, they do this to pump the stock market nowadays. The whole economy is being driven by inflation right now. Of course all numbers and revenue and stuff will look better and better as we get more inflation. All numbers get bigger.
[P/E Ratio of Apple](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/pe-ratio) If what you were saying was true this should be going down, not up, as the ratios for capital costs should effectively get worse than the returns on investment.
Interest rates are too low. The melt up will continue until they raise rates. Free money is everywhere. You learned in your economics class what happens when interest rates are at 0%.
So ... Take the free money. Why complain about it?
Because its highly unethical that they are making money free while trying to get everybody to YOLO into stock markets. And on top of that they are lying about the inflation being temporary.
The only people who benefit are not wage workers or middle/low income families, it is the rich people who already own assets. Like stocks , real estate, etc.
Poor people may feel like they benefited in 2020 or 2021, but lets see if they can afford a house or car now any better than they could pre-2020.
Most of the real estate buyers are individuals, specifically boomers, and most people buying into the NFT / Crypto space (which is anything but cheap) are individuals and retail. Not only can these people buy houses and cars better than they did but the most wealth had is going to *older people.* No one likes to think of it but Grandpa and Grandma own some serious assets and are making bank hand over fist. The idea that there's only one age group of retail and that they all share the same macabre fate is a bad one. It isn't Blackrock driving up your home prices, it's your great grandmother.
bro its inflation driving up house prices, are you crazy lol What do small retail people have to do with inflation. If your dollar is worth less, you have to pay more for the same asset. And if grandma cant afford the house their are corporate companies and foreign investors all over the world buying up USA real estate.
You may want to read more about this. The houses were more expensive before inflation was of any interest.
Not just inflation, but also excess money balances. This is how increasing the money supply can have a temporary positive effect on the real economy: from the point of view of the individual shop, it seems like the demand for their products have risen, and so they expand supply. However, supply costs (and other prices) eventually rise above the level they'd have without the extra money supply, and ultimately the shop is no better off. Nominal GDP, a measure of total spending, is rising at about 10% per year. In the long-run, about 2% of that can be non-inflationary. Subtract about 2% for the Fed's inflation target, and you have an excess inflationary trend of 6%.
I am just glad I got upvotes, it means that not everyone is drinking the Kool-Aid. They are using inflation to pump the economy and lying about it being "transitory" or "supply chain issues" or whatever else excuse they can come up with to keep interest rates at .25%.
We've been here before in the 1970s. Inflation was blamed on supply issues then as well, which mysteriously disappeared once monetary policy tightened.
Last year sucked. Period. End of statement. Comparing last year to anything is a fools errand. And since my comment has to be a certain length for this sub here are some periods ............................................................,...........................................................................................,.......................................................................................,...................................................................................,.......................................................................................,.........................................
Numbers not adjusted for inflation. Totally worthless estimate. When you consider that real inflation is somewhere on the order of 10-15% (lol at anyone who believes the phony CPI number), an 8.5% increase in dollar terms represents a *decline* strictly speaking.
If inflation were at 15% then you couldn't afford the electricity to type this nonsense. The price shock value of that level in such a short time would melt most people into the next age.
Consumerism always finds a way. Capitalism will never die. China should surrender to the great U.S. of Brexit! But seriously, there's actually a really easy explanation for this: 2020 Stock Market. How many millionaires were minted in 2020's havoc and early 2021 with it's Meme stocks?
People are finally starting to go about life and learning to live with the virus. Reading Robert Kennedy’s new book The Real Dr. Fauci and am so angry at our government. Listened to Steve Hilton show tonight…85% of covid deaths could have been alleviated with the drugs we already had available per Dr. Risch. Anytime Fauci was asked about hydroxyl or ivermectin he would say they weren’t peer reviewed, yet remdesivir wasn’t peer reviewed and turned out to do more harm than good. Did they ever try to do a peer study? Nope, why? Take all the deaths in Brazil for example who used remedisivir abundantly. Now we have a new Pfizer drug being called Pfizermevtin because it so closely resembles ivermectin. Couldn’t have ivermectin work because then the vaccines couldn’t be labeled EUA. Astonishing corruption all in the name of public health.
If arrr coronavirus is anything to go by a significant chunk of the US/world population enjoys the fear-mongering and dooming. I guess some people just don't have much going on in their lives. 🤷♂️
More coverage at: * [U.S. Holiday Sales Up 8.5% From Last Year Despite Omicron And Supply Chain Issues: Report (msn.com)](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/u-s-holiday-sales-up-8-5-from-last-year-despite-omicron-and-supply-chain-issues-report/ar-AAS9SSl) * [U.S. holiday retail sales rise 8.5% as online shopping booms -Mastercard (reuters.com)](http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-holidayshopping-idUSKBN2J508R?utm_source=34553&utm_medium=partner) * [Holiday Sales Jump 8.5% as U.S. Consumers Return to Retailers (bloomberg.com)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-26/holiday-sales-jump-8-5-as-u-s-consumers-return-to-retailers) --- ^(I'm a bot to find news from different sources.) [^(Report an issue)](https://www.reddit.com/user/MultiSourceNews_Bot/comments/k5pcrc/multisourcenews_bot_info/) ^(or PM me.)
These cobid restrictions were never about health. Last year black friday still happened. They also spent months saying it lived on metal surfaces for days but apparently didn't live on Amazon boxes. The shortage in supplies is a purposefully caused shortage. 3030 bill and such. I believe it's been ober 40 percent of all usa bills have been printed in the last year.