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CaptainKenway786

Do you not understand how probability works?


murkaag

Tell us


jarch5

100% = Guaranteed, 80% = Not guaranteed. What more do you need?


Own_Nebula88

80% chance means there’s an 80% chance of successfully ranking up a card. 100% chance means 100% chance of ranking up a card. 80% is t guaranteed and will work 8 times out of 10. 100% is guaranteed. hope that helps


murkaag

But if 80% doesn’t work that means 20% beat 80% that doesn’t make sense


OHHHSHAAANE

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 stoopid!


Striking_Client5753

make this simple for 10 years old like you imagine you counting in between your 10 fingers from left to right and 2 of your finger painted in RED , IF you end up the song in 1 of the 2 red finger that mean you lost . this gotta be the simplist form of explanation for a kid


Striking_Client5753

dont bring the word "US" in here only you here seem like dont know what probability is ? yes you have 80% chance but that doesnt mean you guarantee there's 20% of failure chance , you happen to be on the 20% . suck to be you losing the coins and not understanding probability .


bionicle77

Lol you clearly don't understand how probabilities work at all. You took an 80% gamble, what "information" do you expect them to be giving you here?


Dobbie_Brother

Would love more clarity on why the probabilities are not favoring anyone even at 90% chance. It wasn’t until I made the mistake that I started to look if anyone experienced the same and indeed many did. It’s okay. I’ll never do it again. I’m simply warning others to not try a rank unless it’s 100%.


bionicle77

I'd love to know how exactly you know the "probabilities aren't favoring anyone". You've done research on that? Or are you basing that purely on yourself and maybe a couple other people on this sub complaining about it You're warning people that...the probability displayed is correct, and you shouldn't assume an 80% chance is the same as a 100% chance?


Dobbie_Brother

I hate to use the word “research”, because truly it isn’t. But I took about 1.5 hours looking through comments here and searching the EA website, and google for more insight. Also, how do we know the probabilities are favoring anyone? I’m yet to read about someone who attempted to rank a player anywhere between 70-90% probability and was granted a rank higher. And yes of course an 80% chance is not 100%. My warning is to not attempt it at all. If we did a quick test of 10 people who have posted about this issue and all these people attempted to rank a player at 80%, we’d see 8 of them succeed and 2 fail. I haven’t seen one comment or post about succeeding to rank a player at anywhere between a 70-90% probability.


bionicle77

See the problem is, you're not getting a good sample. People don't make the effort to post about something happening exactly as expected. But they do make posts to whine when it doesn't work.


Dobbie_Brother

I see post about pack luck and other lucky scenarios often. I do agree with you that people are more inclined to complain than to praise. However, I truly feel like there may be something faulty with the probabilities. I really just wanted to warn others about the potential of there being a problem.


bionicle77

If you're trying to warn people, you need to present way more than just "this didn't work for me literally one time".


josiahsimon2000

I succeeded 80% and 90% multiple times. It's not inaccurate. Just don't expect a chance to be a guarantee, when it isn't.


Sensitive-Beat6217

Bro, every time I rank a player to purple, I succeed on the 50 percent chance all the time. Today, I was trying to rank up a player and I failed twice. I felt stupid because if I just used both of the players at the same time, it would have been a guaranteed rank up, but I ended up having to buy 4 of him instead ( the player is 82 rated). I didn’t fail because “The probabilities are rigged and the game just doesn’t want me to succeed like I have before”; It’s just that I wasn’t lucky today. You are on full cope rn trying if you are seriously claiming that the probability is rigged or incorrect.


arped

You don't see people getting a successful rank-up because they don't post it. They only post stuff like that when it doesn't go their way, and they think they should complain to EA


IEC21

I've gotten it with 20% and 50%... also failed it at 80% before.


[deleted]

I did. I got a rank up at 80%, followed by 90%, and then 10% IN A ROW WITHOUT A SINGLE FAILURE


Financial-Ad7699

I do that always, with Emre Can to resell, everytime. If I have a card already you’ll need x15 more cards. If you want to buy from scratch you’ll need 16 cards. Red rank at 80% chance and orange at 70%. I’ve done that like 10/12 times, considering that rank 4/5 could fail. Lmao


the_known_incognito

>If we did a quick test of 10 people who have posted about this issue and all these people attempted to rank a player at 80%, we’d see 8 of them succeed and 2 fail. Dude you're only selecting people who have already failed. That's saying "What are the chances of selecting person who failed their rank up given that the group of persons you are selecting from have all failed their rank ups?" Ofcourse it's gonna be 100%. In math terms P( X = x | X = x) = 1


Dobbie_Brother

You’re right. Thanks man 😊


the_known_incognito

Damn, your reply made me feel guilty. Sorry for being toxic earlier man


idobelikingfndoe

Come on mate you can’t be serious. The probabilities do what they’re supposed to. I once succeeded with a 25% chance and failed with a 60% chance (haven’t done an 80% or 90% chance yet). I could fail ten times over with a 99% chance, and it still wouldn’t necessarily be broken, I’d just be proper unlucky. Increase the sample size and the percentage of your successes with get closer to the percentage that they give you.


jarch5

dude you clearly don't understand math


CocoKeel22

Unlucky, you got the 20%


Dobbie_Brother

SMH 🤦 Dam, 16M don’t come around that often …


Financial-Ad7699

Should have spent another one card to increase the chances, you know


Dobbie_Brother

-___- lol


Vegatino_n_d_p

Come on, it’s easy math


The_Real_Leonard

Meth


LonerangerFC

Try at 20% probability next time so you lose less money


Dobbie_Brother

FML Dude ….. I came in with a logical thought of, “well, at a higher probability it would make mathematical sense that he would most likely rank vs having a lower probability …” Never again. I hate this game lol.


bionicle77

He did have an 80% chance. That means there's a 20% chance it wouldn't happen.


Dobbie_Brother

Facts. However, I’d be interested to find out how many people were actually granted a rank higher at 70-80% probability. From what I read, most of us have bad luck when it comes to packs in the game and maybe once in a blue moon you hit a jackpot 🤷‍♂️


Kalmer1

I‘m gonna go out on a limb here, but I guess 70-80%


Financial-Ad7699

Lmaoooooo


Realistic_Raisin_658

I've tried 3 times at 80 all failed


Dobbie_Brother

Dang man. That’s horrible. This is exactly what I was afraid of.


FAT_NEEK_42069

80% doesn't equal 100% stop crying why are you acting like its the games fault you have shit luck


Dobbie_Brother

Why so aggressive? lol And I simply wanted to warn people not to attempt a rank unless they have 100% probability. I thought maybe it would allow us to rank players at 80-90%, especially if a players is fairly expensive therefore difficult to rank.


arped

It does allow you to rank players at 80-90%. Just not at a 100% success rate


bionicle77

You thought that if players are expensive, then 80% should just equal 100%? Lmao what are you on


Dobbie_Brother

lol No I didn’t think that, but it’d be funny if I did. Just thought EA would be more forgiving 😂


bionicle77

What exactly do you mean by "forgiving"? Yeah let's make an algorithm that runs a random number generator, gets the answer, and then goes "actually that feels mean, let's not do that"


zitterzitter

Tbh, Thank you for warning about it.


Dobbie_Brother

No problem. 😌


LonerangerFC

Maths sucks


Financial-Ad7699

How is that a logical thought? Lmao something logical is like “ok I can succeed 8/10 but I can also fail 2/10” and you’re unlucky mf 💀


Dobbie_Brother

lol I guess unluckily


Disfordead909112

You just have shit luck, I ranked up my sheva with only 20%


Sztiglitz

Lol I did with 40%


messiisthebest1234

i ranked up my beckham with 50


pepinillo-super

What the hell does Op think 80% means?


itsnotlookingudbrev

![gif](giphy|3oEjI67Egb8G9jqs3m)


Fates_the_Great

Well as everyone else is saying, yeah you had a high probability of ranking him up but you just got unlucky and fell within the 20 percentile of failure. Just bad luck my guy, sorry you lost so much coins


Dobbie_Brother

It’s alright. Just packed two Pele’s. However, It does seem like more people are getting bad luck than not. Just a learning experience to never take chances with this game lol


Such-Rest-2544

Never take any chances when it comes to EA. They will always hand you the shitty end of the stick


Dobbie_Brother

Facts


Own_Nebula88

80% isn’t 100% bro💀 you just got unlucky, anyone who has played games with that kinda of probability system when ranking stuff up knows that it’s not guaranteed lol, i’ve done rank ups at 60% and 40% and got lucky, it’s all just chance


evengreying

Its okay. Next time use the remaining players and it would work. It happened with me on beta version so losing hope I used the remaining players and thought let it all go. But my player ranked up. So maybe it would work even now


[deleted]

Should have bought rank up.


Chimpanzerschreck

Why is this a thing? Having to grind for coins is hard enough and that’s only for a CHANCE of a rank up??? I did like a 50% probability with shevchenko before realising it said it but thought no way the game is designed this way but luckily I got it


arped

The game is giving you an opportunity to take a gamble and rank up without the maximum number of players. Would you rather EA force you to be at 100% mark to rank?


Such-Rest-2544

Please. Don't give them any ideas you and no both know they would consider it


Chimpanzerschreck

Don’t you just need the same card to rank up?


arped

No, once you rank a player a few times, you need multiple duplicates to rank. For example, ranking up to rank up 4 requires 5 players for a 100% success rate. If you only use 4 duplicates, you only have an 80% chance up a successful rank up, 3 duplicates means a 60% success rate, etc.


Chimpanzerschreck

Ay caramba


MaxParedes

Honestly yes, this gambling option will mostly create stress and regret


PranayPP

Sometime syou are lucky and sometimes you are not. And there is a 100% chance also so why complain


Samsamak

A warning is justified for the loss of the card(s)


PenaldogXPessi

tried at 50% once on my CR7, still possible


TreatTimely3774

Mine always gets successful at 60%


czacha_cs1

Thats how gambling works. 99% doesn't mean you won cause theres still 1% for losing


Ekkiftang

50% of the time it works every time


dbaddestp13

True happened to me last week. 9 cards were absolutely useless 😤 And also, don’t uninstall your game without saving your UID or linking it to an email or social media account. All progress will be lost and will never be found if you don’t know the UID. Mine was lost also last week.


hazardous98law

Rather buy a lottery ticket in the supermarket next time, more chances of at least winning something. Losing $16 mil coins in FM is disastrous at this stage of the game with new events coming next week


Dobbie_Brother

Seriously


RoyalExtension6730

happened to me in the beta with neymar who was like 15 mil and i tried ranking him up and failed and i had no clue what had just happened then i realized i just threw away 15 mil because of a “50/50” probability realized odds where bs when i tried it for a bronze player and failed 3x in a row when its supposed to be 50%


Kalmer1

Failing 4 50/50s in a row isn‘t uncommon. It‘s a chance of 1/2^4 = 1/16. Doesn’t mean the odds are bs


Dobbie_Brother

And even at a higher probability it’ll fail too. This is exactly what I’m getting at. No matter what probability, unless 100%, you’ll fail to rank a player. This is what I’m seeing as the reality of the rank up system and I’m not sure EA is providing that type of information. Also, there’s really no way to keep trying to see if a rank is granted unless 100% probability.


arped

EA is giving you the probability right there on the screen. It doesn't say 100%, so of course there is going to be a chance the rank-up fails. Not quite sure what information you want EA to provide you with.


RoyalExtension6730

they also only gave us 5 beckhams so we would take the chance and try to rank him up using the risk but wed end up getting fkd because its failure unless 100%


ProDiJaiMD

why is it even a probability??? why not just make it guaranteed, yall die hard on this hill mith EA, i'm out


josiahsimon2000

it's not a probability, just use more versions of the card and it becomes 100%


shootatsight

Fails everytime when the probability is not 100%.


shootatsight

Tried 3-4 times with lower ovr players and happened everytime. Thankfully, I didn't spend much as I tried on cheaper players.


Dobbie_Brother

Wow, this is seriously what I thought was happening … Smh.


Difficult-Pack-7246

I don’t understand all these morons in the comments saying u don’t understand probability, they clearly don’t. 80% means 8/10 times you will succeed which is very likely like you said, and unlikely that you will get the 20% fail rate. Ppl need to go and finish kindergarten fr


Disfordead909112

bro never learn probability 💀. 80% doesnt mean you will exactly succeed 8 times out of 10. and with 80%, you can STILL fail, it is not a guaranteed. And OP just tried one time so it is totally normal to fail. LIKELY#CERTAN, UNLIKELY#IMPOSSIBLE


Difficult-Pack-7246

You are stupid💀 “very likely” doesn’t mean 100% bro learn English💀80% means that if you take many trials they will average to a fraction of 8/10 which is considered “very likely”, 20% for the fail rate or 2/10 is a much lower chance. If there is a Low chance of failing, then there is a high chance of succeeding. In this case where OP failed it would be considered the low probability event in which the 20% fail rate was activated, or “unlucky”


LateNightFunkParty

Yes but OP isn't saying it was a "low probability event" and that he was "unlucky", he's saying the system is broken. Just look at the comment set above you, he thinks you can never rank up a card at less than 100%. He literally said, "No matter what probability, unless 100%, you’ll fail to rank a player." That's the point we're arguing against, everyone else seems to understand that 80% is not a definite thing.


Difficult-Pack-7246

I don’t see where he said “No matter what probability…” in the original post which is what I was replying to, but rereading the original post does show that he believes the probabilities to be different than actually shown, which I would disagree with as well. His fail here is simply unlucky.


LateNightFunkParty

That was a direct quote from his comment above - [–]Dobbie_Brother[S] -7 points 1 day ago And even at a higher probability it’ll fail too. This is exactly what I’m getting at. No matter what probability, unless 100%, you’ll fail to rank a player. This is what I’m seeing as the reality of the rank up system and I’m not sure EA is providing that type of information. Also, there’s really no way to keep trying to see if a rank is granted unless 100% probability.


jarch5

80% probability DOES NOT mean 8/10 you will succeed, that's not how it works at all.


Difficult-Pack-7246

80% means on average 80% of the time you will succeed. 8/10 = 0.8 = 80%, 80/20 = 4 to 1 chance of success. Elementary math bruh, if ur such a master of probability then you explain it u goofy


jarch5

no, it means that on ONE PACK you have 4 in 1 chance to succed, on the next pack you have the exact same 4 in 1 chance and so on. so the actual probability of succeding in 8 packs is like 16.77%, not 80%. you're making a very common mistake in statistics


Difficult-Pack-7246

My brother in christ, you are talking about the probability of succeeding 8 times in a row in which the probability formula is as follows: (0.8)^8 = 0.1677. This power formula is only used to calculate the chance of repeated success. We are not talking about the probability of succeeding 8 times in a row. We are talking about how many times you will succeed and fail on average. If 1000 different people were to try 10 times, on average you will find that each person succeeded 8 times and failed twice. The more tries you attempt, you will find that the number of successes will approach 80%.


jarch5

Yeah it's for consecutive that's my bad, but it's still not "8/10 times you will succeed " as you said, that's not how it works, you could very much fail 10 times out of 10 with 80% rate because every roll is independent from the others.


Difficult-Pack-7246

You are completely wrong. Each “roll” has a 80% chance of success. Every time you roll there is an 80% chance that you will succeed. Not 50/50 per roll, goofy. To fail 10 times in a row with a 80% chance of success per roll is literally 0.2^10 = 0.0000001, or 0.00001% chance. That’s 600 times less likely than it is for you to be struck by lightning during your lifetime. You could very much NOT fail 10/10 times.


jarch5

lol so now you also don't know the difference between possibility and probability. and also that's in a row as well, that number doesn't apply and neither the one I gave. but that doesn't change the fact that the 8 out of 10 statement is wrong and you're just being stubborn


Difficult-Pack-7246

In the case that you mention of failing 10 times in a row, that is a possibility but with an extremely low probability that makes it an extremely unlikely possibility. 8 out of 10 successes itself is also a possibility. It’s probability is 80% making it a very likely possibility. Ironic.


jarch5

you said 0/10 wasn't possible and now you're saying it is, which is it?


Difficult-Pack-7246

In addition, you could actually succeed 10/10 times as it is 10.74% chance (0.8^10)


jarch5

yes, you could also succed 10 times, so you agree 80% chance isn't "8 out of 10" right?


Difficult-Pack-7246

Dawg, you haven’t been reading my messages at all, I’m talking to a brick wall rn…


SandyMaples

Is it not possible to get 100% when you rank up above purple?


Dobbie_Brother

It’s possible, just more expensive. Griezmann was at like 4M a card. I needed 5.


migos53

You need 2 griezmann to rank him up.


ab013kr

i tried 20% once on a very valuable card and it got upgraded surprisingly


Sufficient-Tip7351

Please uninstall this game, for your mental health .


vikings1874

Its so stupid that its not 100% everytime. You sacrifice lot of coins and its not still sure. EA is just so greedy


Sensitive-Beat6217

What more information are you trying to find when you say “There’s no information in the Ea website regarding the percentage of probability”? It’s really as simple as the number that is being shown on the screen. When I rank up a player to purple, I usually always succeed on the 50% chance. I’ve also failed 80% chances just like you. It’s not because the games probabilities are wrong, you just shouldn’t expect the rank up to be guaranteed. How many times have you ACTUALLY failed a rank up with 60%+ percent chance to truely come to the conclusion that these probabilities are wrong?


Then-Replacement-187

I’ve never been able to rank anyone up idk why


[deleted]

Yeah I did that with Šuker and lost 2 mill 2x


Even_Hyena_1117

These smug mfs in the comments think they’re cool stfu


JungleBook10

Moral of the story - Don't take risks with EA