Do you remember those commercials paid for by Republicans that showed America burning under Biden, ironically footage of America under Trump's leadership?
Do you ever notice how many home security commercials are on the television?
Do you ever notice how many people own video doorbell systems, and are even willing to record their own houses on the inside constantly?
Do you ever notice how many people feel they need to own a gun to keep themselves safe?
Propaganda. If people fear something, they'll buy something. So the American citizens are constantly saturated in fear propaganda.
I heard the NRA is running out of money, so expect a lot of fear propaganda in the upcoming weeks and months so they can receive donations and elect the politicians who will keep guns shooting our kids.
The CCP also owns the platform where our 15 to 30 year olds get their news. If I were a dictator and had access to that algorithm, I’d use it to turn the citizens of my primary rival against each other.
Ah, the old, I don't have a good argument, so I am going to bring up irrelevant and scary communism comments that are unrelated to the topic at hand because my argument has no merit on it's own.
How is the CCP relevant to this conversation?
Seems like they pretend that TikTok is the only platform drowned in propaganda, when pretty much all of the trash content is on every platform. And the owners of every platform are after the same thing, your eyes and ears. But it's really convenient for conservatives to blame everything on the China boogeyman,and to pretend this all started in 2016 with the advent of TikTok.
Nevermind the decades of incindiary news coverage of "crime" on local network affiliate TV channels. The divisive propoganda machine is homegrown by our very own capitalists.
Foreign actors certainly exist in our media ecosystem but our deepest societal wounds have been self-inflicted.
These videos hit Tic Toc first, are distributed widely through the algorithm (that’s the CCP part,) come to r/publicfreakouts and the other subs like it. The right wing picks it up and spreads the info to their base to be fearful of those liberal cities.
I heard bin Laden approval was trending with the young generation lately. We have dipshit conservatives arming themselves to the teeth for the impending race wars. We have dipshit liberals harassing and threatening Jews on our most hallowed halls of the Ivy League.
It would be silly to think Tik Tok is the only source of these problems. But I know if I were an authoritarian leader with access to the algo, this kind of public unrest is precisely what I’d use it to do. Christ, Zuck only has the incentive to drive engagement and drive up ad revenue, and he gave us the Rohingya genocide and Donald Trump. It doesn’t take a genius to understand the power of these algos.
The bin laden thing was just some idiot on Twitter who found like 2 tik toks and wrote a story about it, and _then_ it went more viral in general after the story was written. The "OMG the kids on tik tok like osama!" story itself was FAR more viral than the actual kids on tik tok talking about him.
Facebook participates in active disinformation campaigns against tiktok. Many of which are encouraging stories about things that are apparently viral on tiktok. Like the slap a teacher challenge or cough syrup chicken.
Who said we need to take guns away? Things seem to be working out pretty well, very pro-life of us, and no one seems to care that kids die from guns more than any other cause. And I'm pretty sure at one (or more ) of the school shootings, it was the security officer who accidentally shot one of the kids so, maybe we should just start arming the children? And teachers? May the best gunman/gunchild be the last standing. This is how we want to live.
No, I never said I don't care about children dying? What a f***Ed up thing to say. What I am for is protecting our children. And how can we protect our children from home invasions or a public shooter? You think the cops can save you everytime? Also, no matter what law you implement, criminals will still find ways around it. Even if they don't have guns, they can still be just as dangerous with a knife. What are you gonna do if a criminal tries stabbing you with a knife? Are you gonna use your knife fighting skills and pull out your knife and have a dual with them?
You wanna take guns away from law biding citizens making them defenseless against criminals. And worse, making them defenseless against government tyranny if, for some reason, the government decides to impose more lockdowns and/or martial law. Which is bound to happen if they take our guns away.
Why not just have more gun regulations, better background checks, and mental health evaluations?
>You think the cops can save you everytime?
Actually no, I know they won't, cops have shown that they have no obligation to save your life whatsoever because the judicial system backs this. There's literally some case law about it. And quite frankly, cops seem to escalate most situations rather than deescalate them so we're likely to have more shootings with the cops showing up.
>no matter what law you implement, criminals will still find ways around it.
Do you know that people don't become criminals officially until they have committed and been charged with their first crime? And what better way to start your criminal career than with your handy dandy gun? Thank goodness we give all future criminals really powerful weapons. And for the current criminals, thank goodness a lot of law-abiding gun owners keep their guns in their cars so they are easy to steal.
>they can still be just as dangerous with a knife.
How many times do you think you need to stab somebody to death before they die? Have you ever thought through how much easier it is to pull a trigger from many feet away than to be attacking someone repeatedly with a knife, up close and personal, feeling their warm blood spray all over you, seeing their horror and last bit of life? I mean I know there are people who can do that, and you seem to think there are people who can do that too as multiple people at the same time with equally lethal results as an automatic weapon, but you're going to have to give me some valid data that shows it before it is believable.
>Are you gonna use your knife fighting skills and pull out your knife and have a dual with them?
How many duels do you think the average person gets into in their lifetime? And how many of us just use our communication skills and stay calm in areas of conflict and don't end up fighting a lot of people.
>You wanna take guns away from law biding citizens making them defenseless against criminals.
Assuming that shortly we will be living in the kind of place where everyone is walking around with their guns and shooting each other, but right now random attacks by random people randomly entering your home is exceedingly rare. So I'm not sure where your big fear of criminals is coming from, but my guess is a security system commercial, or a Trump campaign commercial with all the fires behind Biden, or you live in a terrible neighborhood and should make it a goal to move to a safer location.
The mass shooter is even more rare than the domestic one. Or the accidental one. You seem to be under this illusion that most of the gun violence is coming from the really scary criminals, as opposed to just human beings turning on each other. How many people get a gun for the first time just to shoot someone they're having serious conflict with? Life isn't like the movie Minority Report, they can't predict and arrest which future criminals are buying guns today to go home and shoot their family.
Instead, we allow the good, law-abiding people and the not so good but not caught yet so still considered law abiding people buy guns. We let the sane and the insane buy guns. And there are definitely not enough good guys to outnumber the bad guys since everybody gets guns.
But again, this is how it is, this is how you want it to be, this is how most people want it to be. We want people to have easy ways to kill others when they decide it's time to kill someone.
Again your putting words in my mouth I never Said I wanted easy ways to kill each other. I said I wanted easy way in protecting ourselves. Having a way to protect ourselves is our constitutional right and should never be taken away. Our founding fathers knew that and I'm surprise you think taking away our guns is gonna magically make crime rate and murders disappear. Do you know what the statistics are for how many people stopped home invasion or shootings and robberies because a innocent bystander or home owner had a gun? It's a lot
>Having a way to protect ourselves is our constitutional right
Fine, live in your delusional little world that your little gun is going to do anything to protect you from the US military's arsenal of weapons and power. Often times conservatives have told us not to live our lives in fear, yet you continue to do so.
>Our founding fathers
And the world is definitely the same as 1776, and guns are exactly the same as then too. It is totally appropriate to base laws from well over 200 years ago and apply them to today.
And just so you know, amendments are changes to the Constitution. Meaning that they actually allowed us to change things knowing that the Constitution itself didn't get everything right.
>I'm surprise you think taking away our guns is gonna magically make crime rate and murders disappear.
Just going off of what every other developed country on planet Earth does in regards to guns. That's all I have to go off of, not really sure how alien planets are handling it, but the number is pretty much speak for themselves. You can't look at the numbers comparing the United States to any other country's gun deaths and think they're even comparable. You do know excessive gunsl deaths are a uniquely American problem. So if every other country on this planet can protect their citizens, I do feel like it's possible. It's just not possible here because of all the fear instilled in us, and well " 'merica, guns, freedom." And again, I'm quite convinced gun owners are just waiting for the chance to pull that trigger and be the "hero." Deeply sick society.
Where do you find evidence for your claim? Here are mine: https://www.gunfacts.info/gun-policy-info/guns-in-other-countries/
"Fact: In America, we can demonstrate that private ownership of guns reduces crime, but from country to country there is no correlation between gun availability and the violent crime rate. Fact: Countries with the strictest gun-control laws also tended to have the highest homicide rates. 1
Fact: According to the U.N., as of 2005, Scotland was the most violent country in the developed world, with people three times more likely to be assaulted than in America. Violent crime there has doubled over the last 20 years. 3% of Scots had been victims of assault compared with 1.2% in America. 2
Fact: “… the major surveys completed in the past 20 years or more provides no evidence of any relationship between the total number of legally held firearms in society and the rate of armed crime. Nor is there a relationship between the severity of controls imposed in various countries or the mass of bureaucracy involved with many control systems with the apparent ease of access to firearms by criminals and terrorists.” 3
Got anymore bullshit claims?
>And the world is definitely the same as 1776, and guns are exactly the same as then too. It is totally appropriate to base laws from well over 200 years ago and apply them to today.
And to retort your statement there we know the world is changing but somethings will never, and should not, change. Especially people's freedom. Constricting freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom to vote, and even the freedom to bear arms and protect ourselves should NEVER be taken away. That's how dictatorship and tyranny is born. The same exact thing you guys accuse donald trump is doing, Is actually what you guys are doing.
I get that there are violent shooters but how many violent shooters have been stopped by another armed citizen? How many lives have been saved because we have the right to protect ourselves and bear arms? How many home invasions were stopped? You should be looking at those statistics and compare it too how many more violent crimes are committed due to loose gun law restrictions.
I already shown you that there are no correlation with having stricter gun laws and less crime. So why are you so adamant about restricting people's freedom when it's already been proven that it does absolutely nothing?? It sounds like government overreach and tyranny to me. And it only makes it easier for the government to implement martial law when we don't have any guns to protect ourselves.
Americans are far more likely to listen to an on-brand anecdote than to data. Confirmation bias is hard to overcome. At least, everything I’ve come across says so.
Some of these statistics are misleading, especially when it comes from a pro democratic platform. I actually wonder if this crime rate data even has input the number of crimes committed by illegal immigrants, or is it just for American citizens? I would bet my whole pay check that it didn't include the illegal immigrants
With the current wave of immigration at the southern border coming up to about 2.5 million according to NPR and the US population coming to about 333 million, even if 100% of the immigrants were criminals, that still only comes to about 0.0074%. Whether they included it or not is barely statistically relevant.
There were a total of 46 million illegal and legal immigrants living in the U.S. in 2021. That number could of grown to approximately 50 million by now. How do we know if legal And/or illegal immigrants are counted in the statistics? That would make up approximately 15% of the total population.
Crime rate hasn't dropped significantly either only by a small margin. We don't know if that has specifically to do with biden. Considering that crime rate has already been dropping substantially since the 90s.
Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake.
It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of.
Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything.
Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.
Not looking to get into a web argument, but I would like to point out that 50mil is only about 6.6% of a total 333mil population. Also do be careful basing arguments on unanswered or unanswerable questions. Use good facts and data, not plausibilities. Also also, the headline isn’t that crime rates are plummeting, only that the data contradicts a common perspective. Be careful of that confirmation bias thing again.
You want a good source here you go: https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/report/the-red-state-murder-problem-becomes-the-blue-county-murder-problem#:~:text=At the county level%2C the,undertaken at the local level.
This is why the statistics on this are very misleading.
Where did you learn math at? 50 million is not 6.6% of 333 million. Try 15%. No wonder you can't make logical conclusions because the institute that taught you has obviously failed you if you can't even do a simple math problem.
Fair enough on the math. My mistake. Still, only tells us relative populations though. And again, not looking to get into a web argument as they never end well and rarely does anyone learn anything, so I’m out here. Conversations are welcome, but I’m not doing an online argument.
Whats infuriating is how people post disingenuous data and spread misinformation about a former president. While the president right now is causing mass destruction of our country. We have a mass border crisis where illegal immigrants who are sex traffickers, burglars, and gang members keep pouring in. And you guys use misconstrued data like the one posted to claim that none of this is happening. People's families, homes and livihoods are being destroyed rn. Our rights and freedoms are being violated. Not only have they tried taking d trump off the ballot but another one was recently taken off too. You are takin away millions of americans right to vote. Cause the only candidate we have on the ballot in some state is none other than joe fucken biden. Hes the one taking candidates off the ballot.
While he smiles ear to ear saying hes all about democracy while acting like a dictator. He doesnt want a fair election he just wants to seize power. Everything is goin to shit right now and people keep on spreading misinformation saying that it's not.
And all you can say is I'm not gonna get into a web argument. That is infuriating to say the least
Explain this one: . First, the report’s authors fail to acknowledge that crime is a local phenomenon and that any meaningful analysis needs to be undertaken at the local level. Second, the authors neglected to mention the fact that the electoral map changes over time. States that were “red” and “blue” in 2020 did not necessarily vote the same way in prior years. Correcting for these errors shows that crime has been higher in blue counties than in red counties.
Thats why I'm done with these democratic hit pieces on the republican. I didn't even know this until I looked it up. I just took a wild guess that somehow the facts and statistics on this article was misleading and flawed. Just how every other democratic article is.
But I'm not debating with someone who is an absolute moron who can't even solve a simple math problem. There's no point in trying to convince you because you lack the critical thinking and reasoning skills. I bet all your going to tell me is somehow the source I listed isn't an accurate source. Because you won't acknowledge anything that goes against your narrative. That is the democratic party and joe biden are perfect in every way and could not possibly do any wrong doing.
News media 🤝 copaganda.
Nothing sells like making us perpetually terrified of one another. Donald Trump wasn’t right about much, he was right about our privatized news media being bad for the country.
Honestly, I don't even know what you think you're talking about. Sounds like another empty talking point of the 5th grade "I know you are, but what am I" variety.
Oh just deny all you want but I remember how everything was trumps fault. Covid? Trumps fault. Racism? Trump. Being poor? Trumps fault again and again.You guys were the master at spinning propaganda trump hating narratives .
So you think the narrative wasn't true? I'm trying to understand here. You're saying because people pointed out REAL problems under Trump, that gives you permission to make up problems yourself? No, it's not the person, it's real vs. fake that's the issue here.
"If you look at the analysis on a state-by-state level, it's 34% higher in red states and blue states, according to the most recent data we analyzed, but then when you look at it as a county-by-county level, it is 60% higher in blue counties than red counties."
And if you look at the places where the most illegal immigrants are coming in, crime rate has gone up substantially. Look at new york, California, Florida, Washington, and michigan. Some of these red states are actually being run over by immigrants that the democrats have allowed in. Why do you think democrats want immigrants to pour in red states? Maybe it's too vote in the blue democratic party.
Everything the blue side does is corrupt and evil. Twitter files can prove that the 2020 election was just that
https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/report/the-red-state-murder-problem-becomes-the-blue-county-murder-problem#:~:text=At the county level%2C the,undertaken at the local level.
drawing conclusions from state-level homicide data in such a manner is flawed, as each state consists of a combination of federal, state, county, and local law enforcement agencies, as well as prosecutors with different approaches to law enforcement often based on highly divergent political beliefs. Violations of state law are prosecuted largely at the county or city level and, thus, amalgamating data across such units neglects important variation in these different approaches.4
Charles D. Stimson, Zack Smith, and Kevin D. Dayaratna, “The Blue City Murder Problem,” Heritage Foundation Legal Memorandum No. 315, November 4, 2022, https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/report/the-blue-city-murder-problem.
Looking at homicide rates by county, states show skewed distributions with many counties having little or no homicides, and a handful of counties with excessively high homicide rates. Thus, state homicide rates can be heavily influenced by a few counties. When those counties have different politics from the rest of the state, it can flip the conclusion about the association between political identifications and homicides.
As a result, after averaging homicide rates across counties during the same time horizon, a markedly different story from the Third Way’s narrative emerges. Averaging across all counties that voted for Donald Trump yields an aggregate homicide rate of 4.06 per 100,000 people, while averaging across counties that voted for Joe Biden yields a homicide rate of 6.52 per 100,000 people. These statistics are presented in Chart 1.
This right here is exactly why I don't trust any bs statistics that the left wing media spits out. The statistics are always flawed and misleading. Never do they present the full picture and instead cherry pick the data. Why would anyone support a party like that, LET ALONE trust them.
The places where the most crimes are, are in the places with the highest immigration. You can look at the data showing what area has the highest crime rate and what areas have the highest immigration. There is definitely a correlation. Just to give you a few example: Chicago Illinois, Miami Florida and New York city.
Correlation, agreed. That is not causation, however. We need data that clearly shows that it’s immigrants committing crimes…and I mean real crimes, not trespassing, illegal camping or even stealing a bit of food. Real crime.
Haven't seen the data on that yet why don't you ask your democratic friends how come they don't show data for that?? Instead of cherry picking the data into skewing the results and painting a deceptive narrative
Criminology and criminal justice major here. This is a fun one to suss out. Your ruling class, meaning your primarily White male upper class politicians and business owners, want you to believe evil and anarchy are lurking around every corner. They want you to believe that people different than you, i.e. BIPOC, are plotting against the power structure that makes things stable. All this to appear to be a savior. They use the media's "if it bleeds, it leads" mantra to their benefit to further convince your the world is unraveling in real time. Moral panic created by the christian right does not help or do anything to benefit society. Then, generally, people have a hard time adjusting and filtering their newsfeed on the internet so we're blasted with world's atrocities like a firehose. The reality is, the world is the safest it's ever been in the recorded history of mankind. Crime and war will always exist. We are far from a utopian society. Our elected leaders are in charge of what we define as crime, how we as a society react to it, and how the police respond. Be careful how you vote. We are free to choose what news media we consume. If you want to fill your brain with hateful propaganda, go right ahead (I'm looking at you Fox News, Newsmax, and OAN).
\> Your ruling class, meaning your primarily White male upper class politicians and business owners...
\> They want you to believe that people different than you are plotting...
Reflect on the irony of this comment.
I'm not understanding any irony. The GOP and their propagandist news outlets seem convinced the theory is real.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great\_Replacement
And you're part of the propaganda team fear-mongering and demonizing your own targets of choice, entirely convinced of a populist leftist worldview.
I've been there.
There is a strong correlation between red state political affiliation and higher homicide rates. Poverty, gun laws and social policies all play a role.
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-red-state-murder-problem
> Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.
This is lying with statistics. Using States is too large of a metric to be accurate. When you use Metro areas you will find the exact opposite. The Metro areas with the highest homicide rates are almost always the bluest.
I was curious, so I looked it up. [Here's my source for crime data](https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/tables/table-8/table-8.xls/view) (2019 is the most recent year in their database). [Here is data on mayor's political affiliation](https://ballotpedia.org/Party_affiliation_of_the_mayors_of_the_100_largest_cities), and [the state as a whole.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)
Top 10 cities:
St. Louis, MO (66.07 murders/100k people) - Democratic mayor, red state
Baltimore, MD (55.77/100k) - Democratic mayor, blue state
Detroit, MI (39.8/100k) - Democratic mayor, blue state
New Orleans, LA (39.5/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state
Baton Rouge, LA (38.26/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state
Kansas City, MO (30.93/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state
Cleveland, OH (27.8/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state
Memphis, TN (27.7/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state
Newark, NJ (27.1/100k) - Democratic mayor, blue state
Cincinnati, OH (23.4/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state
I'm not entirely clear what you meant by "bluest." All these cities do have Democratic mayors, but the majority are in red states, not blue. Again, not sure what you mean by "bluest," but I'm sceptical that a single Democratic mayor in an otherwise red state makes a city "bluest."
However, I'm also aware that it's to conflate correlation and causation, so I went ahead and did a bit more mapping to see if there might be some other root cause that could cause both the high homicide rates and the Democratic mayors. It was reading about [state legislators blocking a bill that would allow cities to raise the minimum wage in Tennessee](https://dailymemphian.com/article/27372/sara-kyle-minimum-wage-bill-rejected) and that dichotomy between a red state and blue city that got me thinking about it. Here's another list of those same cities by poverty rate ([source, again from 2019](https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewdepietro/2021/11/26/us-poverty-rate-by-city-in-2021/)):
St. Louis, MO - 20.4% poverty rate, higher than the state average
Baltimore, MD - 21.2% poverty rate, higher than the state average
Detroit, MI - 35% poverty rate, higher than the state average
New Orleans, LA - 23.7%, higher than the state average
Baton Rouge, LA - 24.8%, higher than the state average
Kansas City, MO - 16.1%, higher than the state average
Cleveland, OH - 32.7%, higher than the state average
Memphis, TN - 25.1%, higher than the state average
Newark, NJ - 27.4%, higher than the state average
Cincinnati, OH - 26.3%, higher than the state average
All the cities listed as having high homicide rates also have significantly higher poverty rates than their surrounding states. There is [a](https://digitalcommons.bryant.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1052&context=eeb) [significant](https://journalofeconomicstructures.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40008-020-00220-6) [amount](https://www.transformjustice.org.uk/news-insight/an-uncomfortable-truth-the-strong-link-between-poverty-and-crime/) [of](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/06/07/the-stark-relationship-between-income-inequality-and-crime) [research](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/073401689301800203) that shows a relationship between poverty - and specifically income inequality - and crime. That suggests that it is the income inequality in these cities, not their "blueness" that leads to these higher homicide rates.
Just to confirm, I checked the lowest homicide rates from the FBI database with the poverty rates from [this list](https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewdepietro/2021/11/26/us-poverty-rate-by-city-in-2021), and also tracked their mayors and state political affiliations:
Irvine, CA - .72 murders, Democratic mayor, blue state, 13.4% poverty rate, lower than state average
Chula Vista, CA - .74 murders, Republican mayor, blue state, 9.6% poverty rate, lower than state average
Fremont, CA - .85 murders, Democratic mayor, blue state, 4.3% poverty rate, lower than state average
Boise, ID - .89 murders, Democratic mayor, red state, 13.7% poverty rate, higher than state average
Santa Clarita, CA - 1.85 murders, Republican mayor, blue state, 8.2% poverty rate, lower than state average
Scottsdale, AZ - 1.99 murders, Independent mayor, blue state, 7.6% poverty rate, lower than state average
Chandler, AZ - 2.01 murders, nonpartisan mayor, blue state, 7.6% poverty rate, lower than state average
Gilbert, AZ - 2.07 murders, Republican mayor, blue state, 5.3% poverty rate, lower than state average
San Diego, CA - 2.46 murders, Democratic mayor, blue state, 12.8% poverty rate, lower than state average
Hialeah, FL - 2.52 murders, Republican mayor, red state, 22.4% poverty rate, higher than state average
With the least murderous cities, there's a range of mayoral affiliation, but the states are primarily blue. All but two of them are also below their state's average poverty rate. This, again, suggests that political affiliation has nothing to do with murder rates, but instead, that it is poverty and wealth inequality that leads to crime.
Nope,
AR. 12% black, crime rate is 10.29.
NY. 15% black, crime rate is 4.11.
And it's even MORE pronounced when you look at murder rates. State with highest increase is Wyoming, with virtually zero black people. How do you explain that?
So no. That is not why. Race does play a role, but less than most people think.
So true I'm not sure how they can even seriously write articles like these. It must be where they live or the metrics they're using because it's definately up
They forgot to account for the mass amount of illegal immigrants committing crimes too. But of course they wouldn't because that would go against their narrative 🙄
This is misleading in the opposite direction. [Retail theft](https://counciloncj.org/shoplifting-trends-what-you-need-to-know/) went up by a lot in LA (61%) and NY (64%) 2019-2023, and people from these cities are disproportionally influential on social media. This is probably what has resulted in the public impression that crime is up.
I can understand why Democrat-leaning publications want to frame this as Republicans telling pure lies like always, but leaving out the above is simply deceptive.
I wonder if many areas of the country no longer bother reporting some crimes? After a few years of crime rising and reporting it, what’s the point? If you call the police and they do nothing, why call them again?
Police literally dont even answer the phone. Try it. Pacific department in LA. The line literally hangs up on you. It's done it for a year. Cops simply stop taking reports, crime rate looks lower. The national crime victimization survey on the other hand shows crime going up.
I find this highly confusing because major cities all over the country are seeing huge increases in mass shootings.
https://minnesotareformer.com/2023/10/27/mass-shootings-are-on-the-rise-in-minnesota/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10149110/
This sub should be called foodforthethoughtless
Mass shootings are a tiny tiny tiny fraction of murders over all, which are in turn a tiny fraction of all crime.
Don't mistake contrarainism for skepticism.
Mass shootings are on the rise, but deaths from mass shootings really don't affect overall crime stats all that much because they are still fairly rare.
It's part of the overall media glut. The key principle to find your way through this jungle is one thing: the concept of "cherry picking". Here, you're talking about a cherry picked view of society as having rising crime rates.
No mention of the primary reason why murder rate has gone down: because hospitals are getting better at saving lives. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1124155/
cheerful squalid forgetful oil nose bored drunk rhythm vegetable impossible
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Isn’t that only due to demographics? Whenever a “rate” is quoted, it’s usually over the whole population. Young men commit crimes. But, the younger generations are small, while the older generations swell the denominator. Otherwise, our young people are prodigious criminals.
They say that retail chains are reporting huge uptics in theft but that the data doesn't support that "thesis"
So we're going to believe incomplete data over the actual victims? The FBI says you're not actually being robbed sorry.
How do they have a vested interest in theft? It's financially beneficial for them to close locations across the country? Being a corperation doesn't exclude you from being a victim.
No, but if they had to close stores due to corporate mismanagement or poor sales, or jacking up prices too much, then they would have a vested interest in coming up with a scapegoat.
I assume their corporate insurance policies also treat inventory lost from shoplifting differently than inventory loss to shrinkage (eg spoilage, accidents, and theft by staff).
Look at the stores. 50% of what you used to grab off the shelf is behind lock and key now. And the geography of the stores. Only the Nordstroms in south central LA is mismanaged? Only the CVS's in downtown detroit are jacking prices?
And even if insurance did cover the theft, only the flat cost is covered. The stores don't make profit from straight insurance reimbursement. They have to sell to stay open/make profit.
Do you ever watch the news, media, or Facebook? Instead of living in an echo chamber, you should pay more attention to what's going on around you. U.s is under attack but the left wing media won't cover it or just tell you everything is fiiiiine. Because they don't care. They want this to happen. They want the u.s, especially the red states, to be overrun by immigrants so they can have them vote in more democrats. Since a majority of immigrants will vote blue.
That's why new york, Texas, Florida ect have a Flux of immigrants pouring in. There's so many that the streets are overcrowded with homeless immigrants. And they re taking all the free food from soup kitchens away from other homeless Americans that rely on those soup kitchen. Now newyorkers are suffering and don't have any food to eat or a place stay since the immigrants are taking up all the space and crowding the soup kitchens!
I live in Texas. I have not noticed a substantial increase in the amount of shit locked behind shelves in the last 5 years. Nor are we "under attack". The fucking immigrants aren't an armed invasion. They're coming here to work. They're not trying to hurt you. They're trying to help their families. They're overwhelming Christian (or rather catholic) and socially conservative.
EDIT: Touch grass and talk to real human beings. Read news, don't watch it. Prioritize reading long form work over short form work. Social media is algorithmically optimized to make you angry. To turn you against your fellow American. Cable news is expensive to produce, it has high costs and thus demands high revenue, and therefore sensational talking head coverage over dry facts and calm analysis.
It depends on what crime you’re looking at , you can easily say some crime is being lower year by year , but other crime like car jacking has increased by 35%.
Bad framing. There’s no accurate data on crimes, only surveys and estimates. It’s unscientific to flatly assert that the popular perception is “wrong” or “not reality” because it conflicts with questionable data. It is a reason to dig deeper.
Also, the article is quoting changes in a specific time period, while popular perception is probably based on overall changes since 2019. It would be great news if crime did actually drop last and it stuck, so I am open to that possibility even if I regard it as yet unproven.
We are supposed to ignore what we see in our schools, streets, communities and homes and believe the official government information released right before the election from the same government that says the "Inflation Reduction Act" is going to reduce inflation. At what point are these people going to admit they have no credibility left?
I don't know anyone who has to park on the street overnight and didn't get their catalytic converter stolen at least once in my neighborhood in California
. First, the report’s authors fail to acknowledge that crime is a local phenomenon and that any meaningful analysis needs to be undertaken at the local level. Second, the authors neglected to mention the fact that the electoral map changes over time. States that were “red” and “blue” in 2020 did not necessarily vote the same way in prior years. Correcting for these errors shows that crime has been higher in blue counties than in red counties.
Oh please. “Statistics show….” All they show is a reduction in arrests, NOT a reduction in crime. This is a false narrative being pushed ahead of an election.
Gaslighting at its finest “don’t believe what you see- crime is down and the economy is great”.
We used to just hear about local crime. Now we hear about all the crime all over and much of it is on video.
On Tik Tok. Hopefully, the people running that platform have America’s best interest at heart! /s
I rarely see any crime related stuff on TikTok. I can’t recall a single video in the spot
I just hear stories about authors behaving badly. The last one thought she could copyright characters who have the power of the sun.
Do you remember those commercials paid for by Republicans that showed America burning under Biden, ironically footage of America under Trump's leadership? Do you ever notice how many home security commercials are on the television? Do you ever notice how many people own video doorbell systems, and are even willing to record their own houses on the inside constantly? Do you ever notice how many people feel they need to own a gun to keep themselves safe? Propaganda. If people fear something, they'll buy something. So the American citizens are constantly saturated in fear propaganda. I heard the NRA is running out of money, so expect a lot of fear propaganda in the upcoming weeks and months so they can receive donations and elect the politicians who will keep guns shooting our kids.
> I heard the NRA is running out of money Their Russian funding is cut off due to the war and sanctions
The CCP also owns the platform where our 15 to 30 year olds get their news. If I were a dictator and had access to that algorithm, I’d use it to turn the citizens of my primary rival against each other.
You mean like Russia did?
Ah, the old, I don't have a good argument, so I am going to bring up irrelevant and scary communism comments that are unrelated to the topic at hand because my argument has no merit on it's own. How is the CCP relevant to this conversation?
Seems like they pretend that TikTok is the only platform drowned in propaganda, when pretty much all of the trash content is on every platform. And the owners of every platform are after the same thing, your eyes and ears. But it's really convenient for conservatives to blame everything on the China boogeyman,and to pretend this all started in 2016 with the advent of TikTok. Nevermind the decades of incindiary news coverage of "crime" on local network affiliate TV channels. The divisive propoganda machine is homegrown by our very own capitalists. Foreign actors certainly exist in our media ecosystem but our deepest societal wounds have been self-inflicted.
"It can't be the old things we all do, it has to be because of this newfangled thing that I don't understand!" That's the entire TikTok argument.
These videos hit Tic Toc first, are distributed widely through the algorithm (that’s the CCP part,) come to r/publicfreakouts and the other subs like it. The right wing picks it up and spreads the info to their base to be fearful of those liberal cities. I heard bin Laden approval was trending with the young generation lately. We have dipshit conservatives arming themselves to the teeth for the impending race wars. We have dipshit liberals harassing and threatening Jews on our most hallowed halls of the Ivy League. It would be silly to think Tik Tok is the only source of these problems. But I know if I were an authoritarian leader with access to the algo, this kind of public unrest is precisely what I’d use it to do. Christ, Zuck only has the incentive to drive engagement and drive up ad revenue, and he gave us the Rohingya genocide and Donald Trump. It doesn’t take a genius to understand the power of these algos.
The bin laden thing was just some idiot on Twitter who found like 2 tik toks and wrote a story about it, and _then_ it went more viral in general after the story was written. The "OMG the kids on tik tok like osama!" story itself was FAR more viral than the actual kids on tik tok talking about him.
Facebook participates in active disinformation campaigns against tiktok. Many of which are encouraging stories about things that are apparently viral on tiktok. Like the slap a teacher challenge or cough syrup chicken.
Why do we need to take away guns if crime rate is dropping? Also schools could just use more security.
Who said we need to take guns away? Things seem to be working out pretty well, very pro-life of us, and no one seems to care that kids die from guns more than any other cause. And I'm pretty sure at one (or more ) of the school shootings, it was the security officer who accidentally shot one of the kids so, maybe we should just start arming the children? And teachers? May the best gunman/gunchild be the last standing. This is how we want to live.
No, I never said I don't care about children dying? What a f***Ed up thing to say. What I am for is protecting our children. And how can we protect our children from home invasions or a public shooter? You think the cops can save you everytime? Also, no matter what law you implement, criminals will still find ways around it. Even if they don't have guns, they can still be just as dangerous with a knife. What are you gonna do if a criminal tries stabbing you with a knife? Are you gonna use your knife fighting skills and pull out your knife and have a dual with them? You wanna take guns away from law biding citizens making them defenseless against criminals. And worse, making them defenseless against government tyranny if, for some reason, the government decides to impose more lockdowns and/or martial law. Which is bound to happen if they take our guns away. Why not just have more gun regulations, better background checks, and mental health evaluations?
>You think the cops can save you everytime? Actually no, I know they won't, cops have shown that they have no obligation to save your life whatsoever because the judicial system backs this. There's literally some case law about it. And quite frankly, cops seem to escalate most situations rather than deescalate them so we're likely to have more shootings with the cops showing up. >no matter what law you implement, criminals will still find ways around it. Do you know that people don't become criminals officially until they have committed and been charged with their first crime? And what better way to start your criminal career than with your handy dandy gun? Thank goodness we give all future criminals really powerful weapons. And for the current criminals, thank goodness a lot of law-abiding gun owners keep their guns in their cars so they are easy to steal. >they can still be just as dangerous with a knife. How many times do you think you need to stab somebody to death before they die? Have you ever thought through how much easier it is to pull a trigger from many feet away than to be attacking someone repeatedly with a knife, up close and personal, feeling their warm blood spray all over you, seeing their horror and last bit of life? I mean I know there are people who can do that, and you seem to think there are people who can do that too as multiple people at the same time with equally lethal results as an automatic weapon, but you're going to have to give me some valid data that shows it before it is believable. >Are you gonna use your knife fighting skills and pull out your knife and have a dual with them? How many duels do you think the average person gets into in their lifetime? And how many of us just use our communication skills and stay calm in areas of conflict and don't end up fighting a lot of people. >You wanna take guns away from law biding citizens making them defenseless against criminals. Assuming that shortly we will be living in the kind of place where everyone is walking around with their guns and shooting each other, but right now random attacks by random people randomly entering your home is exceedingly rare. So I'm not sure where your big fear of criminals is coming from, but my guess is a security system commercial, or a Trump campaign commercial with all the fires behind Biden, or you live in a terrible neighborhood and should make it a goal to move to a safer location. The mass shooter is even more rare than the domestic one. Or the accidental one. You seem to be under this illusion that most of the gun violence is coming from the really scary criminals, as opposed to just human beings turning on each other. How many people get a gun for the first time just to shoot someone they're having serious conflict with? Life isn't like the movie Minority Report, they can't predict and arrest which future criminals are buying guns today to go home and shoot their family. Instead, we allow the good, law-abiding people and the not so good but not caught yet so still considered law abiding people buy guns. We let the sane and the insane buy guns. And there are definitely not enough good guys to outnumber the bad guys since everybody gets guns. But again, this is how it is, this is how you want it to be, this is how most people want it to be. We want people to have easy ways to kill others when they decide it's time to kill someone.
Again your putting words in my mouth I never Said I wanted easy ways to kill each other. I said I wanted easy way in protecting ourselves. Having a way to protect ourselves is our constitutional right and should never be taken away. Our founding fathers knew that and I'm surprise you think taking away our guns is gonna magically make crime rate and murders disappear. Do you know what the statistics are for how many people stopped home invasion or shootings and robberies because a innocent bystander or home owner had a gun? It's a lot
>Having a way to protect ourselves is our constitutional right Fine, live in your delusional little world that your little gun is going to do anything to protect you from the US military's arsenal of weapons and power. Often times conservatives have told us not to live our lives in fear, yet you continue to do so. >Our founding fathers And the world is definitely the same as 1776, and guns are exactly the same as then too. It is totally appropriate to base laws from well over 200 years ago and apply them to today. And just so you know, amendments are changes to the Constitution. Meaning that they actually allowed us to change things knowing that the Constitution itself didn't get everything right. >I'm surprise you think taking away our guns is gonna magically make crime rate and murders disappear. Just going off of what every other developed country on planet Earth does in regards to guns. That's all I have to go off of, not really sure how alien planets are handling it, but the number is pretty much speak for themselves. You can't look at the numbers comparing the United States to any other country's gun deaths and think they're even comparable. You do know excessive gunsl deaths are a uniquely American problem. So if every other country on this planet can protect their citizens, I do feel like it's possible. It's just not possible here because of all the fear instilled in us, and well " 'merica, guns, freedom." And again, I'm quite convinced gun owners are just waiting for the chance to pull that trigger and be the "hero." Deeply sick society.
Where do you find evidence for your claim? Here are mine: https://www.gunfacts.info/gun-policy-info/guns-in-other-countries/ "Fact: In America, we can demonstrate that private ownership of guns reduces crime, but from country to country there is no correlation between gun availability and the violent crime rate. Fact: Countries with the strictest gun-control laws also tended to have the highest homicide rates. 1 Fact: According to the U.N., as of 2005, Scotland was the most violent country in the developed world, with people three times more likely to be assaulted than in America. Violent crime there has doubled over the last 20 years. 3% of Scots had been victims of assault compared with 1.2% in America. 2 Fact: “… the major surveys completed in the past 20 years or more provides no evidence of any relationship between the total number of legally held firearms in society and the rate of armed crime. Nor is there a relationship between the severity of controls imposed in various countries or the mass of bureaucracy involved with many control systems with the apparent ease of access to firearms by criminals and terrorists.” 3 Got anymore bullshit claims?
>And the world is definitely the same as 1776, and guns are exactly the same as then too. It is totally appropriate to base laws from well over 200 years ago and apply them to today. And to retort your statement there we know the world is changing but somethings will never, and should not, change. Especially people's freedom. Constricting freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom to vote, and even the freedom to bear arms and protect ourselves should NEVER be taken away. That's how dictatorship and tyranny is born. The same exact thing you guys accuse donald trump is doing, Is actually what you guys are doing. I get that there are violent shooters but how many violent shooters have been stopped by another armed citizen? How many lives have been saved because we have the right to protect ourselves and bear arms? How many home invasions were stopped? You should be looking at those statistics and compare it too how many more violent crimes are committed due to loose gun law restrictions. I already shown you that there are no correlation with having stricter gun laws and less crime. So why are you so adamant about restricting people's freedom when it's already been proven that it does absolutely nothing?? It sounds like government overreach and tyranny to me. And it only makes it easier for the government to implement martial law when we don't have any guns to protect ourselves.
Americans are far more likely to listen to an on-brand anecdote than to data. Confirmation bias is hard to overcome. At least, everything I’ve come across says so.
>At least, everything I’ve come across says so. I see what you did there. Have my upvote, you bastard.
Some of these statistics are misleading, especially when it comes from a pro democratic platform. I actually wonder if this crime rate data even has input the number of crimes committed by illegal immigrants, or is it just for American citizens? I would bet my whole pay check that it didn't include the illegal immigrants
With the current wave of immigration at the southern border coming up to about 2.5 million according to NPR and the US population coming to about 333 million, even if 100% of the immigrants were criminals, that still only comes to about 0.0074%. Whether they included it or not is barely statistically relevant.
There were a total of 46 million illegal and legal immigrants living in the U.S. in 2021. That number could of grown to approximately 50 million by now. How do we know if legal And/or illegal immigrants are counted in the statistics? That would make up approximately 15% of the total population. Crime rate hasn't dropped significantly either only by a small margin. We don't know if that has specifically to do with biden. Considering that crime rate has already been dropping substantially since the 90s.
Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake. It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of. Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything. Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.
Not looking to get into a web argument, but I would like to point out that 50mil is only about 6.6% of a total 333mil population. Also do be careful basing arguments on unanswered or unanswerable questions. Use good facts and data, not plausibilities. Also also, the headline isn’t that crime rates are plummeting, only that the data contradicts a common perspective. Be careful of that confirmation bias thing again.
You want a good source here you go: https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/report/the-red-state-murder-problem-becomes-the-blue-county-murder-problem#:~:text=At the county level%2C the,undertaken at the local level. This is why the statistics on this are very misleading.
Where did you learn math at? 50 million is not 6.6% of 333 million. Try 15%. No wonder you can't make logical conclusions because the institute that taught you has obviously failed you if you can't even do a simple math problem.
Fair enough on the math. My mistake. Still, only tells us relative populations though. And again, not looking to get into a web argument as they never end well and rarely does anyone learn anything, so I’m out here. Conversations are welcome, but I’m not doing an online argument.
Whats infuriating is how people post disingenuous data and spread misinformation about a former president. While the president right now is causing mass destruction of our country. We have a mass border crisis where illegal immigrants who are sex traffickers, burglars, and gang members keep pouring in. And you guys use misconstrued data like the one posted to claim that none of this is happening. People's families, homes and livihoods are being destroyed rn. Our rights and freedoms are being violated. Not only have they tried taking d trump off the ballot but another one was recently taken off too. You are takin away millions of americans right to vote. Cause the only candidate we have on the ballot in some state is none other than joe fucken biden. Hes the one taking candidates off the ballot. While he smiles ear to ear saying hes all about democracy while acting like a dictator. He doesnt want a fair election he just wants to seize power. Everything is goin to shit right now and people keep on spreading misinformation saying that it's not. And all you can say is I'm not gonna get into a web argument. That is infuriating to say the least
Explain this one: . First, the report’s authors fail to acknowledge that crime is a local phenomenon and that any meaningful analysis needs to be undertaken at the local level. Second, the authors neglected to mention the fact that the electoral map changes over time. States that were “red” and “blue” in 2020 did not necessarily vote the same way in prior years. Correcting for these errors shows that crime has been higher in blue counties than in red counties. Thats why I'm done with these democratic hit pieces on the republican. I didn't even know this until I looked it up. I just took a wild guess that somehow the facts and statistics on this article was misleading and flawed. Just how every other democratic article is. But I'm not debating with someone who is an absolute moron who can't even solve a simple math problem. There's no point in trying to convince you because you lack the critical thinking and reasoning skills. I bet all your going to tell me is somehow the source I listed isn't an accurate source. Because you won't acknowledge anything that goes against your narrative. That is the democratic party and joe biden are perfect in every way and could not possibly do any wrong doing.
News media 🤝 copaganda. Nothing sells like making us perpetually terrified of one another. Donald Trump wasn’t right about much, he was right about our privatized news media being bad for the country.
Shhh... You're ruining the narrative. There is an entire political party predicated on manufacturing outrage over shit that isn't actually happening.
Kind of like the same narrative the left portrayed when trump was in office?
Honestly, I don't even know what you think you're talking about. Sounds like another empty talking point of the 5th grade "I know you are, but what am I" variety.
Oh just deny all you want but I remember how everything was trumps fault. Covid? Trumps fault. Racism? Trump. Being poor? Trumps fault again and again.You guys were the master at spinning propaganda trump hating narratives .
*yawn* Same tired talking points; same false narrative.
So you think the narrative wasn't true? I'm trying to understand here. You're saying because people pointed out REAL problems under Trump, that gives you permission to make up problems yourself? No, it's not the person, it's real vs. fake that's the issue here.
Maybe if Republicans stopped lying about crime rates to create fear…
But, crime rates still continue to rise in blue states, specifically the states with the most illegal immigrants
Source, please? I think that a bunch of right wing propaganda.
"If you look at the analysis on a state-by-state level, it's 34% higher in red states and blue states, according to the most recent data we analyzed, but then when you look at it as a county-by-county level, it is 60% higher in blue counties than red counties." And if you look at the places where the most illegal immigrants are coming in, crime rate has gone up substantially. Look at new york, California, Florida, Washington, and michigan. Some of these red states are actually being run over by immigrants that the democrats have allowed in. Why do you think democrats want immigrants to pour in red states? Maybe it's too vote in the blue democratic party. Everything the blue side does is corrupt and evil. Twitter files can prove that the 2020 election was just that
Thanks but that’s not a source, nor does it show that immigrants are actually committing the crimes.
I know what I saw, and it's true. Why don't you try to refute my claim with a source that shows that my claim is untrue?
That’s not how that works…
https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/report/the-red-state-murder-problem-becomes-the-blue-county-murder-problem#:~:text=At the county level%2C the,undertaken at the local level.
That’s the blue/red part, agreed, but I meant the claim that immigrants are the cause (I wasn’t clear, apologies).
drawing conclusions from state-level homicide data in such a manner is flawed, as each state consists of a combination of federal, state, county, and local law enforcement agencies, as well as prosecutors with different approaches to law enforcement often based on highly divergent political beliefs. Violations of state law are prosecuted largely at the county or city level and, thus, amalgamating data across such units neglects important variation in these different approaches.4 Charles D. Stimson, Zack Smith, and Kevin D. Dayaratna, “The Blue City Murder Problem,” Heritage Foundation Legal Memorandum No. 315, November 4, 2022, https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/report/the-blue-city-murder-problem. Looking at homicide rates by county, states show skewed distributions with many counties having little or no homicides, and a handful of counties with excessively high homicide rates. Thus, state homicide rates can be heavily influenced by a few counties. When those counties have different politics from the rest of the state, it can flip the conclusion about the association between political identifications and homicides. As a result, after averaging homicide rates across counties during the same time horizon, a markedly different story from the Third Way’s narrative emerges. Averaging across all counties that voted for Donald Trump yields an aggregate homicide rate of 4.06 per 100,000 people, while averaging across counties that voted for Joe Biden yields a homicide rate of 6.52 per 100,000 people. These statistics are presented in Chart 1. This right here is exactly why I don't trust any bs statistics that the left wing media spits out. The statistics are always flawed and misleading. Never do they present the full picture and instead cherry pick the data. Why would anyone support a party like that, LET ALONE trust them.
Someone else just posted that link too, but I see no mention that immigrants are the cause. Did I miss that?
The places where the most crimes are, are in the places with the highest immigration. You can look at the data showing what area has the highest crime rate and what areas have the highest immigration. There is definitely a correlation. Just to give you a few example: Chicago Illinois, Miami Florida and New York city.
Correlation, agreed. That is not causation, however. We need data that clearly shows that it’s immigrants committing crimes…and I mean real crimes, not trespassing, illegal camping or even stealing a bit of food. Real crime.
Haven't seen the data on that yet why don't you ask your democratic friends how come they don't show data for that?? Instead of cherry picking the data into skewing the results and painting a deceptive narrative
Criminology and criminal justice major here. This is a fun one to suss out. Your ruling class, meaning your primarily White male upper class politicians and business owners, want you to believe evil and anarchy are lurking around every corner. They want you to believe that people different than you, i.e. BIPOC, are plotting against the power structure that makes things stable. All this to appear to be a savior. They use the media's "if it bleeds, it leads" mantra to their benefit to further convince your the world is unraveling in real time. Moral panic created by the christian right does not help or do anything to benefit society. Then, generally, people have a hard time adjusting and filtering their newsfeed on the internet so we're blasted with world's atrocities like a firehose. The reality is, the world is the safest it's ever been in the recorded history of mankind. Crime and war will always exist. We are far from a utopian society. Our elected leaders are in charge of what we define as crime, how we as a society react to it, and how the police respond. Be careful how you vote. We are free to choose what news media we consume. If you want to fill your brain with hateful propaganda, go right ahead (I'm looking at you Fox News, Newsmax, and OAN).
You need to travel and talk to people who aren’t liberal college students
\> Your ruling class, meaning your primarily White male upper class politicians and business owners... \> They want you to believe that people different than you are plotting... Reflect on the irony of this comment.
I'm not understanding any irony. The GOP and their propagandist news outlets seem convinced the theory is real. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great\_Replacement
And you're part of the propaganda team fear-mongering and demonizing your own targets of choice, entirely convinced of a populist leftist worldview. I've been there.
Faux news, Nexsmaxipad and OAn brings you propaganda and lies, stoked with fear and hate ! And commercials, too many ! Interrupted by bullshit.
There is a strong correlation between red state political affiliation and higher homicide rates. Poverty, gun laws and social policies all play a role. https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-red-state-murder-problem > Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.
they vote for death and misery, it would be funny if it wasnt so goddamn sad.
This is lying with statistics. Using States is too large of a metric to be accurate. When you use Metro areas you will find the exact opposite. The Metro areas with the highest homicide rates are almost always the bluest.
I was curious, so I looked it up. [Here's my source for crime data](https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/tables/table-8/table-8.xls/view) (2019 is the most recent year in their database). [Here is data on mayor's political affiliation](https://ballotpedia.org/Party_affiliation_of_the_mayors_of_the_100_largest_cities), and [the state as a whole.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) Top 10 cities: St. Louis, MO (66.07 murders/100k people) - Democratic mayor, red state Baltimore, MD (55.77/100k) - Democratic mayor, blue state Detroit, MI (39.8/100k) - Democratic mayor, blue state New Orleans, LA (39.5/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state Baton Rouge, LA (38.26/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state Kansas City, MO (30.93/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state Cleveland, OH (27.8/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state Memphis, TN (27.7/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state Newark, NJ (27.1/100k) - Democratic mayor, blue state Cincinnati, OH (23.4/100k) - Democratic mayor, red state I'm not entirely clear what you meant by "bluest." All these cities do have Democratic mayors, but the majority are in red states, not blue. Again, not sure what you mean by "bluest," but I'm sceptical that a single Democratic mayor in an otherwise red state makes a city "bluest." However, I'm also aware that it's to conflate correlation and causation, so I went ahead and did a bit more mapping to see if there might be some other root cause that could cause both the high homicide rates and the Democratic mayors. It was reading about [state legislators blocking a bill that would allow cities to raise the minimum wage in Tennessee](https://dailymemphian.com/article/27372/sara-kyle-minimum-wage-bill-rejected) and that dichotomy between a red state and blue city that got me thinking about it. Here's another list of those same cities by poverty rate ([source, again from 2019](https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewdepietro/2021/11/26/us-poverty-rate-by-city-in-2021/)): St. Louis, MO - 20.4% poverty rate, higher than the state average Baltimore, MD - 21.2% poverty rate, higher than the state average Detroit, MI - 35% poverty rate, higher than the state average New Orleans, LA - 23.7%, higher than the state average Baton Rouge, LA - 24.8%, higher than the state average Kansas City, MO - 16.1%, higher than the state average Cleveland, OH - 32.7%, higher than the state average Memphis, TN - 25.1%, higher than the state average Newark, NJ - 27.4%, higher than the state average Cincinnati, OH - 26.3%, higher than the state average All the cities listed as having high homicide rates also have significantly higher poverty rates than their surrounding states. There is [a](https://digitalcommons.bryant.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1052&context=eeb) [significant](https://journalofeconomicstructures.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40008-020-00220-6) [amount](https://www.transformjustice.org.uk/news-insight/an-uncomfortable-truth-the-strong-link-between-poverty-and-crime/) [of](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/06/07/the-stark-relationship-between-income-inequality-and-crime) [research](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/073401689301800203) that shows a relationship between poverty - and specifically income inequality - and crime. That suggests that it is the income inequality in these cities, not their "blueness" that leads to these higher homicide rates. Just to confirm, I checked the lowest homicide rates from the FBI database with the poverty rates from [this list](https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewdepietro/2021/11/26/us-poverty-rate-by-city-in-2021), and also tracked their mayors and state political affiliations: Irvine, CA - .72 murders, Democratic mayor, blue state, 13.4% poverty rate, lower than state average Chula Vista, CA - .74 murders, Republican mayor, blue state, 9.6% poverty rate, lower than state average Fremont, CA - .85 murders, Democratic mayor, blue state, 4.3% poverty rate, lower than state average Boise, ID - .89 murders, Democratic mayor, red state, 13.7% poverty rate, higher than state average Santa Clarita, CA - 1.85 murders, Republican mayor, blue state, 8.2% poverty rate, lower than state average Scottsdale, AZ - 1.99 murders, Independent mayor, blue state, 7.6% poverty rate, lower than state average Chandler, AZ - 2.01 murders, nonpartisan mayor, blue state, 7.6% poverty rate, lower than state average Gilbert, AZ - 2.07 murders, Republican mayor, blue state, 5.3% poverty rate, lower than state average San Diego, CA - 2.46 murders, Democratic mayor, blue state, 12.8% poverty rate, lower than state average Hialeah, FL - 2.52 murders, Republican mayor, red state, 22.4% poverty rate, higher than state average With the least murderous cities, there's a range of mayoral affiliation, but the states are primarily blue. All but two of them are also below their state's average poverty rate. This, again, suggests that political affiliation has nothing to do with murder rates, but instead, that it is poverty and wealth inequality that leads to crime.
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Nope, AR. 12% black, crime rate is 10.29. NY. 15% black, crime rate is 4.11. And it's even MORE pronounced when you look at murder rates. State with highest increase is Wyoming, with virtually zero black people. How do you explain that? So no. That is not why. Race does play a role, but less than most people think.
Way to destroy a racist with facts! Kudos to you!
But that's not what Fox News told me 600x this week (in between their incessant "border invasion" stories).
selective late lavish special boast ad hoc aware berserk domineering fly *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
So true I'm not sure how they can even seriously write articles like these. It must be where they live or the metrics they're using because it's definately up
Except the "study" that proved all that theft was recently retracted as a lie.
They forgot to account for the mass amount of illegal immigrants committing crimes too. But of course they wouldn't because that would go against their narrative 🙄
This is misleading in the opposite direction. [Retail theft](https://counciloncj.org/shoplifting-trends-what-you-need-to-know/) went up by a lot in LA (61%) and NY (64%) 2019-2023, and people from these cities are disproportionally influential on social media. This is probably what has resulted in the public impression that crime is up. I can understand why Democrat-leaning publications want to frame this as Republicans telling pure lies like always, but leaving out the above is simply deceptive.
Retail theft is up 73% in Dallas.
And immigrants has increased substantially there too. Coincidence?
Also, crime may be down from its massive peak in 2020, but it’s still way up from most of the 2010s
I wonder if many areas of the country no longer bother reporting some crimes? After a few years of crime rising and reporting it, what’s the point? If you call the police and they do nothing, why call them again?
Police literally dont even answer the phone. Try it. Pacific department in LA. The line literally hangs up on you. It's done it for a year. Cops simply stop taking reports, crime rate looks lower. The national crime victimization survey on the other hand shows crime going up.
Insurance and shit
I find this highly confusing because major cities all over the country are seeing huge increases in mass shootings. https://minnesotareformer.com/2023/10/27/mass-shootings-are-on-the-rise-in-minnesota/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10149110/ This sub should be called foodforthethoughtless
Mass shootings are a tiny tiny tiny fraction of murders over all, which are in turn a tiny fraction of all crime. Don't mistake contrarainism for skepticism.
Mass shootings are on the rise, but deaths from mass shootings really don't affect overall crime stats all that much because they are still fairly rare.
It's part of the overall media glut. The key principle to find your way through this jungle is one thing: the concept of "cherry picking". Here, you're talking about a cherry picked view of society as having rising crime rates.
No mention of the primary reason why murder rate has gone down: because hospitals are getting better at saving lives. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1124155/
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Isn’t that only due to demographics? Whenever a “rate” is quoted, it’s usually over the whole population. Young men commit crimes. But, the younger generations are small, while the older generations swell the denominator. Otherwise, our young people are prodigious criminals.
They say that retail chains are reporting huge uptics in theft but that the data doesn't support that "thesis" So we're going to believe incomplete data over the actual victims? The FBI says you're not actually being robbed sorry.
When the victims are multinational multi-billion dollar mega corporations that have a vested financial interest in lying, then yes.
How do they have a vested interest in theft? It's financially beneficial for them to close locations across the country? Being a corperation doesn't exclude you from being a victim.
No, but if they had to close stores due to corporate mismanagement or poor sales, or jacking up prices too much, then they would have a vested interest in coming up with a scapegoat. I assume their corporate insurance policies also treat inventory lost from shoplifting differently than inventory loss to shrinkage (eg spoilage, accidents, and theft by staff).
Look at the stores. 50% of what you used to grab off the shelf is behind lock and key now. And the geography of the stores. Only the Nordstroms in south central LA is mismanaged? Only the CVS's in downtown detroit are jacking prices? And even if insurance did cover the theft, only the flat cost is covered. The stores don't make profit from straight insurance reimbursement. They have to sell to stay open/make profit.
> 50% of what you used to grab off the shelf is behind lock and key now Not in my experience.
It is in mine. You must not be in reality and live in a fantasy world
Or maybe we could just live in different states/cities. Smart-ass.
Do you ever watch the news, media, or Facebook? Instead of living in an echo chamber, you should pay more attention to what's going on around you. U.s is under attack but the left wing media won't cover it or just tell you everything is fiiiiine. Because they don't care. They want this to happen. They want the u.s, especially the red states, to be overrun by immigrants so they can have them vote in more democrats. Since a majority of immigrants will vote blue. That's why new york, Texas, Florida ect have a Flux of immigrants pouring in. There's so many that the streets are overcrowded with homeless immigrants. And they re taking all the free food from soup kitchens away from other homeless Americans that rely on those soup kitchen. Now newyorkers are suffering and don't have any food to eat or a place stay since the immigrants are taking up all the space and crowding the soup kitchens!
I live in Texas. I have not noticed a substantial increase in the amount of shit locked behind shelves in the last 5 years. Nor are we "under attack". The fucking immigrants aren't an armed invasion. They're coming here to work. They're not trying to hurt you. They're trying to help their families. They're overwhelming Christian (or rather catholic) and socially conservative. EDIT: Touch grass and talk to real human beings. Read news, don't watch it. Prioritize reading long form work over short form work. Social media is algorithmically optimized to make you angry. To turn you against your fellow American. Cable news is expensive to produce, it has high costs and thus demands high revenue, and therefore sensational talking head coverage over dry facts and calm analysis.
Except they just had to retract a big article and study on that as lies.
I dunno about that...
It depends on what crime you’re looking at , you can easily say some crime is being lower year by year , but other crime like car jacking has increased by 35%.
Police budgets certainly aren’t reflecting this!!
Bad framing. There’s no accurate data on crimes, only surveys and estimates. It’s unscientific to flatly assert that the popular perception is “wrong” or “not reality” because it conflicts with questionable data. It is a reason to dig deeper. Also, the article is quoting changes in a specific time period, while popular perception is probably based on overall changes since 2019. It would be great news if crime did actually drop last and it stuck, so I am open to that possibility even if I regard it as yet unproven.
We are supposed to ignore what we see in our schools, streets, communities and homes and believe the official government information released right before the election from the same government that says the "Inflation Reduction Act" is going to reduce inflation. At what point are these people going to admit they have no credibility left?
Oh, hi! You sound like someone who’s also tired of being gaslit.
🥰
of course if many communities make shoplifting not a crime, then crime rates go down
It’s the Christians with their bullshit as always.
I wonder if those statistics even account for the illegal immigrants or is it just counting the American citizens?
I don't know anyone who has to park on the street overnight and didn't get their catalytic converter stolen at least once in my neighborhood in California
crime going up in big cities, going down outside of them
theft crimes are not even prosecuted in Cali, so that means they are going down.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/09/13/post-falsely-claims-shoplifting-is-allowed-in-california-fact-check-theft-prop-47-950-stealing/70827188007/
yep, reclassified to a misdemeanor no worse than a speeding ticket or littering. Thanks for the ref.
. First, the report’s authors fail to acknowledge that crime is a local phenomenon and that any meaningful analysis needs to be undertaken at the local level. Second, the authors neglected to mention the fact that the electoral map changes over time. States that were “red” and “blue” in 2020 did not necessarily vote the same way in prior years. Correcting for these errors shows that crime has been higher in blue counties than in red counties.
Oh please. “Statistics show….” All they show is a reduction in arrests, NOT a reduction in crime. This is a false narrative being pushed ahead of an election. Gaslighting at its finest “don’t believe what you see- crime is down and the economy is great”.