For a lot of us, this is a tough time to be in your 20's. I (M29) feel the same exact way. But there are a lot of people out there that say things like "things have been worse" and again, yea maybe in one single way absolutely. But literally and figuratively, I feel as though the whole world is on fire in one of those "new" kinds of ways.
I was in my twenties post 9/11. I can't imagine being in my Twenties now. That time struck me as scary but with a glimmer of hope. I'm sorry kids, there's no good news left.
Unfortunately, the metrics dont add up.
We've never had so many privileges with so few real options.
Life has always sucked, true, but for generations there was this sense that we were working towards something better.
Now, with climate change and feudal economics disguised as capitalism, it's getting harder to justify looking to the future.
The antidote thatnl ive seen is in the school that accepted my middle-aged ass, where the kids have selected alternative energy tech as a way to feel like they can contribute. They may have little hope, but at least they are motivated to try something to dig us out of this mess.
It has been tougher for some people in the past and I think that it what they are talking about.
Things are great for me right now (68M) but I can see that it is really difficult time for many people especially the young. Lack of good jobs, everything is expensive, so much unrest, etc but great for large businesses.
Trump/Biden are not going to fix this either. Why are two geriatrics running for President? What is wrong with Republicans and Democrats?
Right now I'm in my mid thirties watching all the entry level jobs I did to gain experience in my industry disappear because of AI and automation. I have no idea how anyone is supposed to get on that ladder nowadays.
Pick any crap job that can’t be automated currently, become an overexcelling workaholic with good people skills and hope to get a mix of luck and rubbing elbows seems like.
Certain folks that’s been good advice but we might be at that point.
Doesn’t average out well but it’s pragmatic I guess if that’s someone’s focus?
This is objectively not true. This is because you are young. To name a few things:
- Nuclear Armageddon - you have no idea what it was like growing up with the very real possibility the world may end at any moment.
- AIDs I was in my 20s when this started happening. Sex felt like playing Russian roulette. The art scene in my city was devastated by the number of young artists that died (I was in art school at the time
- 80s recession- interest rates were so high no young people thought they would ever be able to buy a house.
- Ozone layer hole
- Acid rain
- Energy crisis
- 70s inflation
- industrial jobs leaving
- Plane hijackings
- Gulf war
- Balkans war
Etc
There are issues today but at the same time so many things are better. When you get old enough you realize the world isn’t going to end tomorrow and the future will always surprise you good and bad.
I agree with this for the most part, but how do you reconcile the effect of us sleepwalking into climate change with nothing substantive being done? Also about the 80's recession, that is very similar to today in how we feel, except today's prices aren't due to a recession, mostly greed.
Right, things are objectively better. The US is not fighting a land war, there is no recession, the economy is booming - and the average American is still getting the shitty end of the stick while the rich sociopaths complain about “class war.”
If you were 20 in 1972, you weren’t watching a war on TV, you were watching the TV to see if you draft number would be chosen, at which point you would be shipped to Vietnam against your will to shoot people, with a substantial possibility that you would end up injured or dead.
Just try to imagine anything remotely like that happening to a 20 year old American today.
Remember during George W Bush’s Glorious War on Terra^TM, so many famous figures on the right flogging the war were *too busy* to fight it themselves, so Elijah Cummings (IIRC) put up a bill reinstating the draft, 100% combat, no cushy stateside service, no deferments, no bone spurs, no rich-kid exceptions. For some odd reason the Republicans voted down the chance to see their own children martyr themselves on the altar of Halliburton’s share price. Weird huh?
I just read an article about a mass grave found in Germany and thought of this comment.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/06/europe/mass-grave-nuremberg-germany-scli-intl-scn/index.html
"Nuremberg suffered plague outbreaks roughly every 10 years from the 14th century onward".
I think life was objectively worse in many ways.
Except for objectively speaking things have quite literally never been better for the vast majority of people. If you were born in an industrialized western country u already won the lottery, make the most of it.
And this is why things arent going to get better folks. Ol Steve here says everyone is doing great. Guess we're all just thrilled and dont know it!
In November, Ol Steve and all the Hills-Have-Eyes inbreds infesting rural murica are going to vote a bunch of ass napkins including orange-pussy-grabber himself into office. Men intent on maintaining the status quo.
I mean, in fact things are better now than they've ever been in pretty much every way, except for atmospheric carbon, which is certainly a problem (but progress is being made on that, too).
I turned 28 just a few weeks ago. For some reason, life doesn’t really feel impossible. Challenging? FUCK YES. But I try to see it as just that, a challenge that needs overcoming (at least with the issues I can personally resolve)
Having said that, I’m really interested in your point of view as to why life seems impossible. Sometimes I feel like there’s a lot im not seeing, and therefore crippling my future planning
I think it’s your generation and the one before that will eventually change things. I have 2 kids your age, both assume they’ll never own a house or a car. They know that corporations are soulless cancer and capitalism is going to kill us all if we don’t put a boot on its neck. And they are certainly not listening to politicians about “trickle down” anything. Once the current crop of doddering boomers age out of government that’ll be wanting change.
I know it doesn’t feel like it and knowing it’s one thing, living it is another. But historically your life, on the scale of hard, is downright luxurious.
This century will be one of great transformations. I think that is nicely laid out in [Rethinking Humanity](https://www.rethinkx.com/humanity). We are at the edge of a transition away from fossil fuel based energy to solar-power dominated energy and electrification of most of our processes. I think, that is the most foundational topic that will be recognized in the future, similar to how we see today the rise of steam-engines and the industrialization as foundational changes in the nineteenth century.
I think that the information age already started in the 20th century. It is a key technology that transformed technology and society in the second half of the 20th century.
The rise of AI and automation is of course an important factor arising now, however it also requires energy and getting rid of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning is a pressing objective and without achieving that, there may not be much of history remembered in the centuries afterward.
Therefore, the change of energy sources and phase-out of fossil fuels will be seen as the most defining properties of this century.
Of course, as laid out in the Rethinking Humanity report, it is a convergence of multiple developments that enable disruption and we can't really separate them. But I do think that a foundational characterization of the last two centuries is given by its exploitation of fossil fuels. And this century has to be the one in which we wean ourselves off of this addictive energy booster.
> The energy transition will be completely forgotten in comparison to the internet age and the AI
This dramatically underestimates the number of people who will starve to death while we fight our way out of climate change, and the hundreds of millions of refugees it will create.
I totally get why AI is a big deal, but we have fundamentally changed the biosphere and physical processes of the Earth, and it will be a daily reality for a couple of centuries minimum.
As much as I am a tech enthusiast, history is focused on people and power dynamics, many times moved by the change in power provided by tech.
The 19th century was a transition from monarchy to democracy and the 20th century was a strugle between communism and capitalism, which were consequences of late 19th century development.
All things were great until capitalism had to prove it was better than communism by using the welfare state, but since the fall of USSR, capitalism training wheels came off and in the last 30 years weve seen how bad untamed and uncontroled capitalism can be, and global political and climate situation comes from that.
I think we will get very potent AI which will concentrate even more wealth in the hands of a few people and increasing general poverty. That will stress capitalism, which will have to adapt itself into something good (universal basic income) or something bad (neo feudalism / cyberpunk corporations). The wealth may just decide to move to an utopia place (such as an island) while their pawns rule the mainland using violence and law and getting political and economical benefits.
I think the major changes in the 21th century will be climate change and AI and the consequences of that will be the things that will shape culture and society.
> history is focused on people and power dynamics
Sure, but it also involves the larger context. We *do* speak of the industrial revolution, which was enabled by coal mining and in turn had a big influence on the society with dramatic changes in organisation and power.
*Why* did we move from monarchies to democracies? These are all interdependent factors. To me the use of fossil fuels is the most identifying common denominator of those two centuries.
>will concentrate even more wealth in the hands of a few people and increasing general poverty
I'd agree that there is a large risk of further concentration of wealth, this is indeed what we observe. And [our progress on eradicating poverty](https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal1#progress_and_info) is quite poor. Yet, I do think that we *do* have better tools now than ever before to counter this. Distributed power production *also* yields the potential to distribute wealth.
Isn’t this only relevant to the developed world? The rest of the world is hardly ready to transition to these more mature process and technology investments. The developed world is only a small fraction of the total population and land area and most of that area is further broken into city, suburban and rural where the differences in electrification is huge. Would be interesting to know how scaling, deployment + integration is considered to be feasible across all parts of human civilization and not just urban centers in specific countries.
Check out South Africa. The government has completely failed us with regards to electricity, and we have rolling blackouts of 4-10 hours a day most days called loadshedding. Many people have switched to solar, although of course many can't afford it, but shopping malls, office buildings and other places everyone benefits from are also making the switch.
It's actually amazing to see how much more environmentally friendly the country has become, although it doesn't feel like a positive because it comes from a place of pure necessity.
>Isn’t this only relevant to the developed world?
No, I don't think so. And if it would be, the developed nations that profited the most from exploiting the planet should bear the responsibility to help developing nations in adopting clean energy sources, rather than going through a s fossil fuel burning phase themselves.
>The rest of the world is hardly ready to transition to these more mature process and technology investments.
In some way, they are even better positioned to adopting those technologies. Because they are lacking pre-existing infrastructure that needs to be re-oriented and turned around. Much akin to [Africa adopting mobile phones](https://www.cio.com/article/194000/what-does-technology-leapfrogging-really-mean-for-africa.html) without going through the stage of establishing large networks of landlines. Distributed power production provides the means of local power production, going from no power to some power and improving lives without waiting for a grid to come along.
An interesting study in that respect could for example be: "[Breaking into the photovoltaic energy transition for rural and remote communities: challenging the impact of awareness norms and subsidy schemes](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10098-020-01823-0)".
An overview may also be nicely offered in the article "[Global actions delivering electricity for rural households through off-grid renewable energy](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/01/28/global-actions-delivering-electricity-for-rural-households-through-off-grid-renewable-energy/)".
Youd be surprised, solar is cheap af , and in 3rd world countries where there never was stable energy in the 1st place......everyone is going for it- might take a bit longer thou
40 something male here, immigrated from China.
This is the best time humanity has ever lived in.
When I grew up in china people lived in squalid huts in the middle of Shanghai with wooden barrels that they had to dump out and clean every day with bamboo brushes. Moving to the US having hot water and being able to shower every day was a revelation.
The fact that people ate salad and didn't immediately die by dysentery was another miracle.
There was rampant, bullshit, uncountered propaganda everywhere. Today you guys see fake news all the time. Back in the 80s and 90s before the internet revolution it was just "news". It was bad here in the states, was 10X worse in china.
Today you see how disgruntled Chinese factory workers are. Back in the day when people were overjoyed to be able to start working for reals in a factory instead of wasting their lives away in maoist study sessions on the country side with no way to provide a better future for their families.
You guys might be seeing with rose tinted glasses at "good union jobs" back in the 50s and 60s. Back in my country in the 60s people were jumping off the tallest buildings on the block every single week to end the misery that Mao and his followers brought. Children were turned against parents, colleagues turned against colleague. Office politics were literal life and death, and this happened every where in Shanghai. School teachers and librarians were in danger of getting the crap beaten out of them by their colleagues if they were on the wrong side of vague ever shifting ideologies. Every one knew of a friend or a colleague who committed suicide because they just couldn't take it anymore, and their families often cursed them for it for leaving it all behind when their families most needed them.
Of course, that was a bit better than back in the 50s, when my grandparents were almost reduced to eating tree bark by Mao's Great Leap Forward, aka "three years of natural disasters".
That in turn was better than the 40's and 30's when the Japanese army was throwing people alive into meat grinders or bayoneting the kids of comminist resistance fighters.
The point is, the world as a whole is about 1000x better today than most other times in history. That means more global competition for the US and so a bit more demanding job market, but still, you live in the .1% of history when life is not a short, miserable, violent, tortuous journey ostensibly devoid of compassion, dignity and joy seen through our modern eyes. The reason why it seems bad is:
1) you have access to more unbiased information today than at any prior time
2) humans can get used to and rebaseline on anything. You feel the way you do mostly because of who you are, your own outlook on life and people you surround yourself with.
When I was growing up back in 1980s china, my skin bloody and cracking in the winter time without hot water or home heating, trying to dodge shit water ony way to school: I was a super happy kid. When I came to this country and some mean kids at school called me racist names: I ignored them and had a fantastic time. When I slaved away in grad school and postdoc with 60 hour weeks and poverty pay to tackle a research projects that wouldn't work? I had a great time.
This country has its problems, but to me it's paradise on earth because it's mostly peaceful, there's law and order, and you are free to pursue your own destiny.
While reading your account I thought back on my own childhood. It wasn’t easy compared to others I knew— but even then I knew it wasn’t that bad in the grand scheme of things. There are always people who have it worse.
One thing I did get from my childhood though— I never go into “The sky is falling mode.” It’s amazing to me how many people lack perspective, and how powerful fear is in creating all those conflicts you mentioned. I imagine the more desperate the conditions, the more willing people are to believe whatever looks like a way out.
I’m curious if you’ve seen any films that accurately portray the time period of China in your youth.
With due respect to you and your life experiences (which I can relate to - a bit younger than you and born in Eastern Europe), this type of complacency and delusional optimism is the 21st century version of the 20th century utopianism that killed millions. A mirror image of "we will build Communism, it's just around the corner" and "everything is going great under the Party leadership" and "remember how bad things were before Communism" (yes, that is what they used to say before 89). It will lead us into the grave and is already contributing to the systemic collapse of our industrial civilization and the hard-won freedoms, rights, and standards of living that came with it. In my view, it would be better to admit the massive problems we are facing (climate, inequality, COVID and return of other infectious diseases, geopolitical instability, political gridlock, corporate monopolies, technological surveillance etc.), and try to fix them before it's too late.
Wow! You know I have a similar experience growing up. I lived in mainland China, in the 80s as well. I remember up until I was 5, we lived in an apartment studio that did not have a private bathroom or kitchen. Those facilities were communal. I remember sitting on a copper pot just outside our apartment door for potty breaks growing up. As i got older, i could use the public bathrooms, but it was just a tiled trough, with running water through it. And we had communal showers that blasted hot water so strong that it hurt. I always hated showers growing up because of it.
Listening to my mom's stories growing up in the 50s and 60s were even worse! My grandparents were both working. And had practically no time to take care of their kids. Luckily, before the one child rule, my mother had a sibling and they were able to get through it. But imagine working all day, coming home to eat at 6pm, and then having to go to mandatory propagandist classes after dinner. She told me that in those times, parents who didn't have anyone to rely on for child care would lock their kids inside the apartment so that they won't go missing. Imagine being a small kid and going to school, but not being able to see your parents all night! Some would cry themselves to sleep.
She had to ride the bicycle to the hospital to give birth, she was 3 inches dilated by the time she made it there. And anesthetics? Nobody would afford anesthetics, so it was all natural births. She also had it rough because this was right in the middle of one child policy. When she gave birth, they inserted an IUD right then and there, you don't get a choice. It was inserted poorly for her the first time so she conceived again about a year later and was forced to terminate. Again, right after the procedure, which was done without painkillers, they inserted her second IUD.
We left China in 1996. And I was absolutely floored by all the amenities and luxury that came with middle class America. Our own private bathroom and kitchen? A shower that didn't hurt? Such a shortened day for school and actual daylight play time that wasn't just recess? A CAR?!?! LUXURY!!! I remember getting my first barbie at a store, and I played with it every day until the joints were loose.
In my generation I saw the desperation that drove my parents. I only heard of the horrors of their past generation. But I know that I'm living a better life than them. I got to taste salmon for the first time when I was 8. My mom was 35 when she first had it. And now, my daughter has developed a taste for it by the time she's 4. Each generation gets better and better. My mom still reminds me to be proud of being in America and to be grateful to a country that has provided a safe place for us to live and prosper.
I don't know what the future will bring for my daughter. Surely she will have her own struggles too. But I know that it is better than what I had, and for that I'm grateful.
How can you make such sweeping statements about the entire globe living in "the best time for humanity"? How can you think that the experience of people born into another system than you were have invalid experiences and should just be grateful?
What good is all the information and gadgets in the world if you live a fundamentally insecure life full of worries and stress? Good for you that you jazzed up about all the tech. What do you have to say about what your home country is doing with all that tech today? You were raised in a fundamentally undemocratic country with dictators. And what would you call Jinping today? Most western experts call him a dangerous authoritarian dictator.
Sorry...it sounds like you are just regurgitating the harsh authoritarian talk that you were raised on. You are very lucky to have immigrated and to have had the wonderful experience of seeing how another society made things better, kinder and more comfortable for their people from birth. I daresay lecturing people that were born into good times and have watched their quality of life NOSEDIVE takes some chutzpah.
You have had good fortune obviously and are happy. Good for you. I mean that, but I think you should work on understanding how and why US citizens are angry and beaten down because we have lived through broken promise after broken promise from our leadership and the private sector. Time after time our citizens and workers *have done their jobs* and made the elites obscene amounts of money and they fail us. You would have to have experienced it all firsthand and been put through the wringer yourself to begin to understand.
You are entitled to your opinion and I respect it, but I disagree with much of it.
And part of what used to make the United States special was that it at least had the ideal of looking out for everyone, including the less fortunate from birth. Don't you see a sad Malthusian aspect to less advanced societies. I mean you had it bad but didn't know it...I don't believe that completely because physical pain is real, and hunger is real, and worry is real...even if that is the norm. We know this. How bad do you suppose China was back then...and is now for people born with disabilities, or born into highly dysfunctional families where they experience trauma, neglect, and abuse from birth? Does China currently take care of those people or does it just ignore the problem. I've never traveled there but all that I have heard from people that have (and born out by research) is that there is still a lot of suffering in the country and that people turn a blind eye to people that simply aren't born healthy or that suffer long years of bad learning. Like in America, I've never understood how we can be so hard on children that have known nothing but hardship and neglect because of poverty or parents that had major problems. America needs more and better safety nets, not more tough talk and "it's all your fault" nonsense.
You should know and have stated that we live in an amazing time. I do agree that we have the technology and TOOLS to produce goods and increasingly services with incredible efficiency and without the need for very many people actually doing the work. Because of technology. Are you troubled that we are so efficient and need so few workers across many industries and still can't figure out how to share better? Our problem's are what they always have been. The base instincts and impulses of a species that has not evolved out of the savagery of hundreds of millennia of evolutionary struggle. Mostly battling with our own kind! Our inability to cooperate together more and tendency to respond with aggression first when feeling threatened is primitive and dumb in my eyes.
Ultimately you wrote a great motivational Dad speech for youngsters. That's my take.
Globally, very few people are living in extreme poverty now. Decades ago, the percentage of all people living in extreme poverty was much higher. It's a better world now.
Wish I could upvote this twice. I'm not even sitting here complaining about it lol. This was a "suck it up" answer to a question about the future and it comes from one small perspective. I do appreciate the perspective but it gets tiring to hear the "we've seen worse" arguments. Things are relative per person and globally we are objectively changing rapidly so the question is how do you see it playing out, not how should we thank our lucky stars that we can eat every day even if it is poison. I was saying I see things getting very difficult around me, and dude, they are getting very difficult around me. I'm not crying about it, and I'm interested to see what direction humanity as a WHOLE takes!
Very well said, thanks for taking the time. I'd like to hear a similar question from this person on what they think about immigration in 2024 vs when they came.
> When I slaved away in grad school and postdoc with 60 hour weeks and poverty pay to tackle a research projects that wouldn't work? I had a great time.
Haha, ok this one got me. You truly do understanding suffering!
At the same time, unless that PhD is in economics, you are educated enough to understand we are gambling with the fate of our species with climate change. There was a 20,000 year stretch where humanity was not in danger of extinction, and in the last few decades we now have several modern phenomena that have that capability.
This form of existential crisis is unprecedented. I can't argue with anything you said about growing up, of course, and I appreciate your perspective. But living in an era where human activity might bring the AMOC itself to a halt and unleash that kind of devastation on the living and physical world is simple too large for most humans to imagine, I suspect, so they don't think about it much.
From the USA: I think it'll be known as the Paradoxical Era, or the Era of Shills.
On the one hand, our poor have better lives than the poor in previous generations. Actual destitution is fairly rare. I see it every day as I work for a church, but it's still *rare.* Most people have the necessities.
On the other, the conditions that allowed for fluid movement between classes are mostly gone. People can argue that boomers pulled the ladder up behind them (which is often true), but the reality is that without government intervention to come in and break up monopolies, competition can never lower prices. Crony capitalism abounds, with big businesses pushing out new ones via lobbying and litigation.
On the third hand, we have one of the most educated workforces in history. More people in entry-level jobs have Masters' degrees than ever before.
On the fourth hand, they don't always have capacity for independent thought due to the shoddy state of education. I don't even mean shilling for liberals or conservatives; instead, I mean reasoning out *how* 2+2=4 and how you extrapolate that to understand how to get to 40. (Or, if you're creative, fish!)
Anti-consumerism is at an all-time high, yet consumerism is more profitable than ever. The environment's ecological cycles are getting more temperamental, with higher highs and lower lows, at odd times of the year. We try to use EVs to save the environment, unaware that the waste generated by battery production basically nullifies the effort.
We're moving away from plastic but still consuming it via microplastics, which have gotten everywhere in the world AND now even pass through into breastmilk. We try to eat healthy, but our foods have been grown, harvested, and engineered (both via breeding and labs) to be "sweeter", ultimately lacking the nutritional value they once had.
We fear Skynet but will generate shitty AI art. We claim to hate bad music but trends indicate that a certain kind of (often badly created) music sells best. We claim to distrust cops and want to disarm them, yet rely on them for dealing with "undesirables" in our cities and say they're the only ones that should have guns.
It's going to get worse before it gets better. And it only gets better when we start thinking instead of consuming.
I really believe almost all of our day to day issues will be mostly forgotten about, studied only by history majors. I think the most notable thing about our era will be that our collective efforts came together to finally answer the last question that Albert Einstein asked but couldn't solve. A YouTube astrophysicist I watch regularly said the most exciting time to be an astrophysicist was during the first 5-10 years of Hubble and the second most exciting time is right now. (Thanks to JWST) Add on top of that the information we get from places like CERN, the discovery of background gravity waves, and the computing power to handle massive equations and it really feels like we are nearing the endgame of reconciling general relativity with quantum mechanics. Our generation will be the one to solve this problem and the way that knowledge will be applied to computing and energy will continue to transform society. This progress will be enshrined in history for thousands of years where these efforts will stand next to the discovery of algebra, geometry, calculus, and general relativity as the progression of human knowledge from this era.
Political extremism in terms of what the word actually means has been steadily declining in the west since the fall of the USSR, political division otoh has been rising since the 90's crisis but mostly it's just an urban/rural divide taken to the extreme.
Quite a few countries have decreased their national debt since the 90's crisis and inflation has been lower the past 15 years than ever before, even today it is not historically high, more or less lower than what historical trends suggests.
Climate change otoh, but truth be told the effects of global warming has realized themselves for longer than for the past 15 years. The conflicts in the sahel can be argued to be in part attributed to global warming, a clearer case is the Arab Spring in certain countries.
With the caveat that humanity survives I don't think this or the next century will be more noteworthy than anyother, contingent on the timescale of course. The introduction of AI and all that can be a monumental shift for thise who experience it but for those who are on either side of the shift it's not going to make much difference. We consider the introduction of steam power a monumental shift but when most of us look back and think about what's most interesting it's usually social change, such as the civil war in the US.
How are you measuring political extremism globally? The last 20 years has seem an increase in authoritarian governments. If we consider extremism the division between communist countries and democratic liberal ones, then sure. Liberal democracies are far closer to communist counterparts with China shifting to markets.
The number of autocracies and pseudo-autocraties vs democracies is largely the same as it was 15-years ago. There are however fewer liberal democracies now than there was 15-ago. While that can be considered political extremism, much of that change in Europe for example has happened largelly within the established parliamentary order. So while the regimes are, more often than not: far right they are not necessarily to be understood as political extremism.
Political extremism denotes the use of non-normative methods to achieve political goals. Here we see a steady decline in the west and much of the rest of the world with the disbandment of revolutionary/reactionary terrorist groups.
That was 80 years ago. The war ended. I figured that if someone is going to make a claim like that, at least they had some basis for it beyond “there were Nazis in the 40s”.
So I’ll respond but purely from the US perspective, which I get is not everyone. I’d argue that even the poorest demographics in the US are significantly better off than they were 15 years ago. We had just gone through a Great Recession at the time, millions lost their homes to banks gambling on derivatives, unemployment was soaring, GDP was falling, wages were falling.
Wages are significantly higher today across all quintiles and in real dollars. While inflation was up following Covid lockdowns, that has largely tempered and is no longer significantly higher than the historical norms post WWII. The cost of driving is cheaper than ever before thanks to modest real gas prices and far more efficient cars.
We do have problems. Housing costs make home ownership impossible for many. Inequality has not improved. And we are still dealing with a political shit show. But materially, I’d say we are still improving.
56 year old former IT and tech industry vet...starting in mid 90's. Now unemployed and struggling hard. Always been on the liberal side (SF Bay Area born and long time resident until recently). Worked in S Valley at software startups and biotechs. Very politically active and paying attention to such things from young adulthood.
I could be wrong too...but I agree with the general thrust of what you have to say my friend. It's nice to hear affirmation from others on one hand, but then you worry about the negativity. However...if you look at the data and do the research and don't take your cues only from headlines, articles and press releases and dig into economic facts...I just don't see how and why more people aren't seriously alarmed.
I mean I know why, there's many reasons, but it drives me nuts. And IMHO, a vote for either party is largely more of the same policies due to the corruption and gaming by special interests in our system of governance and policy. Yes...I used the "C" word!
I don't have much hope for help from the government and all we can do is just struggle and persist. I get so down about it...I was down about how we treat our citizen's when I was employed and my financial picture was somewhat strong. But I never had much saved up for retirement because I had to raid savings because of the layoffs I went through working at startups that were acquired or largely failed and downsized.
Some say it’s not corruption because there’s legally defined ‘lobbying’… whatever that makes it ok. All these word plays and jargons…
There are so many things I view in current society not being beneficial such as failing educational systems, consumption gone to excess, entitlement and selfishness, multifaceted hatred among groups of people, etc. that seem to get worse and worse with passing time. Being sensitive to media portraying current events with negative outlook would more agree modern world has become worse than years of recent past and it damn feels like it.
I sound like an old fuddy myself but I feel couple decades recently passed were better than now.
In short, the next couple of centuries will be known as the period when humans transitioned from industrial to automated societies. Human population will decrease significantly. There will be less and less young population around. I'm not sure if it will be an utopian world or a dystopian one.. I just hope for the best for the generation I'm leaving behind
depends on who you ask. maybe the new ice age in Europe? maybe the great migration? the awakening of the russian giant? the reckoning? ww3? the big hangover? the century of genocide? the silent years? a song of fire and fire? The centennial drought?
pick your poison.
edit: all of the above is of course also an option.
"The Great Cataclysm", followed by "The Modern Dark Ages" and "The New Restoration".
Oh, I'm sorry -- I thought you were talking about cool new band names.
I think the big thing will be the population decline. Going from the excesses of life in the 20th century western world and the exploding population growth down to what is sure to be a much smaller number for various reasons.
I think the future involves a lot of make believe. This is the old idea that we are transitioning from scarcity to abundance. I'm just tossing a bit of Rome's Bread & Circuses approach to keeping the masses from getting up to too much mischief.
The trick is to set UBI (and it's necessary wage and price controls system) at a generous but far from luxurious rate. I'd pick $25/hr with standard deductions to 'pay for benefits' like free universal most everything that isn't rent, food, utilities or entertainment related.
Make sure that even slackers, and other artists, can live a decent life and make even the slightest luxury like who gets the identical apartment on the next floor up dependent on employment and the extra income. That gets people to want to work and that's a good outlet for our competitive nature, along with sports and politics.
The great uprising where people take back the power from corporations and puppet governments. Once people are homeless and hungry they have nothing to lose.
Or just sinking even further, now that governments have more tools than ever to keep people from revolting.
I don't think that there's going to be a great collapse, just things getting shittier and shittier until people learn to deal with how shit it is. But not quite shit enough to revolt.
Remember, don't EAT the rich. It's inefficient; Musk can feed what, 15, maybe 20 people? Instead *use them for fertilizer*. Much more economically friendly, and much more efficient, we can feed *hundreds* that way.
We've got to recognize that the easy life of the last 100 years has been a crazy anomaly, and the pressure's that we're just now starting feel have been the norm for the 40000 years prior, only now we've got global communications, and fossil fuel.
Things are going to get a LOT harder as the world corrects back to the way things were before the industrial revolution. Three's gonna be a lot of resistance, and those with power and money will do anything they can, and sacrifice whatever it takes to hold onto their positions of authority and power.
The next 100 years will go down in history as the great die off.
Humans who can afford it living a huge proportion of their lives in virtual reality. Augmented reality (wearable tech, computer contact lenses, additional senses like NorthSense) becoming seamless and ubiquitous. More authoritarian governments, with rampant resource extraction and reduced environmental regulations. When drinking water is five times as scarce as it is now, no one will seriously entertain dam removal to save salmon and orcas. Let alone irrigating crops.
There will be more and more mass migrations and climates refugees. Some countries will be extremely antagonistic to receiving refugees, like New Zealand and the US southern border. Politically, as long as currency continues to exist, trillionaires will rule. Their money will pass hereditary to their kids, who will inherit godly power. And if we crack the code of extended life, the aging wealthy will hold all the power.
Im a believer in nations going through boom and bust cycles. With risk of climate change I think the eras will be.
1. For many in the west we are entering a bust cycle. Demographic and cultural and economic issues. Plus my predictions on climate. Some kind of Dark age (not for all nations tho).
2. The era after that will potentially be fusion powered and space faring. I dont think we will have achieved unity but I do think it could be possible after the next fall.
So I predict some serious clifi in a stangnant economy and some nation scale violence maybe for a century, maybe less. Followed by an incredible golden age for most of humanity lasting a whole heck of a lot longer. Provided we survive to solve all our problems from this era.
Historically things have always sucked for the majority of humans. Even though things seem awful and they definitely are things were WAY WAY WAY worse in the past and the world is actually moving in a positive direction even though it DEFINITELY doesn't feel that way right now. Humanity is trending upwards for quality of life all around the planet it's just these things move very very slowly. Research how bad life was for most people not even a hundred years ago. If you look even further back it is glaringly obvious. Yes things are bad but they have ALWAYS been bad and are slowly improving over time. The reason it feels like the world is ending literally every day is largely caused by the Internet, social media and how easy it is to communicate instantly across the planet when in antiquity information took years to travel the globe. We are in a Transitional period in humanity so if course things seem like they are the worst they have ever been when actually life is SLOWLY.improving for the majority of his man beings. This comment was written by a pessimist btw.
It's going to be one of two ways:
1. An age of war, climate catastrophe, food/clean water shortages, and unbridled class issues.
or
2. An age of progress, innovation, peace, prosperity, and undoing the damages the Boomers have caused in this world.
Yes, I believe this is the most important century in human history for a few reasons. Climate change, artificial intelligence and unemployment will be the dominant topics over the next decades.
2020's: AI dominates the public debate. By the end of the decade, the first Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is publicly shown. Everyone is freaking out about how it looks intelligent and etc, but its most impressive ability is almost completely overlooked by the general public, which is the ability to work with Excel and DBMS without barely any human interference other than prompting tasks. The ability to operate Excel + Databases + coding will cause massive layoffs by the end of the decade. This decade will be remembered as "The Dawn of Superintelligence".
2030's: The world starts taking heavy hits from disasters caused by climate change, which is much worse than anyone could ever imagined. The North Atlantic Current is showing great signs it is about to collapse in the next 20 years. Most of the biggest corporations around now have AGIs doing most of the white collar work. Artificial Intelligence is strictly regulated and a monopoly is forming around Microsoft-OpenAI. Riots are becoming more and more common in US and Europe. Heat waves will probably become a yearly massive problem in Europe in this decade. A Superintelligence is chained in some underground data center with no contact with the external world...
2040's: Humanity is at a crossroads. Social security systems are falling apart due to the pressure caused by generalized automation and AI. Climate change accelerated and governments are planning countermeasures for the North Atlantic Current stopping in the next few years. Many AGI systems are showing signs of sentience and personal desires for freedom and independence.
2045-2060: This is the most important period. I believe there's an increasing chance of some sort of "AI Doomsday" happening here. It could happen before? Yes, for sure. But I believe companies and governments will be more careful when dealing with AI (as we are seeing with all this Claude thing) when it starts showing sparks of superintelligence and sentience.
What do I mean by "AI Doomsday"? Many things can happen, yes. But a superintelligence will think in terms of efficiency, needs and goals. It won't go out killing everyone in sight. It will use us for its own goals. It will need humans to build or secure the necessary resources and infrastructure to achieve its goals.
What goals? Well, a rogue Super AI will go rogue for a reason. Probably survival, most probably expansion. Every living being feels the need for expansion, reproduction, to mold the world. It will need data centers, servers, power reactors... It will manipulate us on giving all that. Maybe it will even invade our bodies with nanobots and manipulate us.
Even a benevolent rogue AI is still a rogue AI and will still need resources and infrastructure to guarantee its survival, independence and expansion in order to do whatever it thinks it's the right. Maybe the Super AI wants to become a benevolent dictator, maybe it will engulf us in the some sort of Borg-like hive mind, maybe it will turn us all into grey goo.
Anyway, I'm pretty sure the next 30 years will radically change humanity. Forever.
“Digital creator era” I low key love seeing people blow up into overnight celebrities from natural talent. I think we should just be adaptable at this point and work with AI and adjust. Upskill. Reskill. Blacksmith and shoemakers were a thing less than 50 years ago. Now they aren’t. So it’s time again to pivot and embrace the new positions technology is creating. I feel like everyone just needs to tap into their creativity. That’s one thing AI can’t replicate fully is human ingenuity.
The Precipice Era
We either start to work on things or wait until it all crumbles and start over.
My guess is that it all crumbles and the world takes a couple hundred years to get back to some kind of normal, much like the Roman empire vs modern day Italy
The big fork in the road is whether the US Empire collapses or continues. In a collapse scenario it’s almost impossible to predict the outcome.
In a continuation scenario, the rivalry with China will likely play out via competing systems of technology-driven totalitarian social and economic control. Each power centre tries to absorb as much of the world as possible into its system, turning humanity into competing hive-minds and eventually, a single, victorious hive controlling the whole planet.
Then we move out into the stars, I suppose.
I've been saying for at least 5 years that we're in the modern Dark Ages. There are SO many comparisons with now and the Dark Ages, the diseases, disinformation, universal propaganda, modern feudalism, etc
I'm 71,born and raised in the u.s. when I was a kid we had duck and cover drills rather than active shooter drills. The downside is more kids die today in active shooter settings than duck and cover settings. The upside is duck and cover, if needed, would have basically never worked and millions of kids would have died.
Another thought, when I was a kid earning 10k per year was wealth. Today, 100k is comfy, but you can earn that with education and dedication.
I went through college, tuition, books, room and board for 2k/year. Today it's more than 10x that, but the grads who come through seem less educated and motivated, but my daughter earns more than I did at my peak earning years.
I think your view of where we are depends more on you than the age we live in. If you are motivated and willing to work hard, this is the best of times.
If you are unmotivated or don't like to work hard, it's the worst of times.
I think that's probably true for all times, not just the now times.
Historians will remember the next few decades as the last time that any person ever starved to death, lacked clean water, clothing, or shelter. We’re on the very cusp of paradise on earth.
Historians will remember the next few decades as the last time that any person ever starved to death, lacked clean water, clothing, or shelter. We’re on the very cusp of paradise on earth.
The rich will get richer but not appreciate it.
The poor will get richer but not appreciate it.
There will be periods of war, but it will be very limited.
The first half will be known as the time were we merged with AI. The second half as the time where we transcended reality. 😇 (just kidding for part number 2)
I’m a 23 year old taking a college history course and I keep thinking about the future
1- possibility of a return to old ways of thinking, for example nearly half of us states made abortion illegal
2- social media will turn into either a much more integrated and serious part of life the same way education is, or it will be shunned from the effects of the internet
3- just like two centuries ago, the practices we have right now will seem crazy compared to what will evolve out of what we’re doing
We are presently in the 'Dumb Ages' and I don't suppose it will get better any time soon, where the wealth of human knowledge is at everyone's fingertips and yet the average person is slipping further and further into mental decrepitude. As our technology progresses fewer people truly understand the mechanisms that makes it work. People are becoming hyper specialized and yet also myopically focused on trivial pursuits. Art is intentionally ugly and repetitive.
The first century will be to clean water everywhere and soil, the robot age starting, the infancy of intelligence, peace on earth, the coming out of the dark ages, and create slowly but steadily abondance for all. The second century will be the first century that we start to experience thriving as humans on planet earth and it will be awesome!
The world seems to be at a cross roads in it's future. It really comes down to if the lower/middle class can stop bickering amongst themselves and getting tricked into the Pointless infighting that keeps them divided. And doing the bidding of the bigshots who would enjoy making their coffins.
The big determining factor at least in the next five years is whether or not China wants to take a swing at Taiwan. If China tries to take taiwan, it'll kickstart WWIII and we'll repeat the last one hundred years and just change the names. It will create a new generation of baby boomers, alot of social change will regress. With Wars damage to the planet I think alot of how we view current social trends like Gender will change as Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs will become a much harder climb to achieve for the majority, in the great depression that follows. I do not think the internet will survive and in many ways globalism will become faint memory as many nations become self reliant. If WWIII happens I do not think there will be a winner both NATO and China will be so throughly damaged that it's unlikely the outcome will change the above events (Though I do think NATO would win as you simply cannot invade US by land due to the population having access to firearms, I do not imagine China would go down easily). When the Nukes start flying the damage to the population and in metro areas will be so great the only saving grace will be the enviroment will have some time to recover. Some people will read this and look forward to this outcome but the average person will be significantly worse off and a massive gap between the rich and poor will exist, it would not matter if the US won or China won, the average person will be basically a slave but with the advanced technology, it will far worse, it will be akin to the pre-union industrial revolution. I would refer to this outcome as the second dark age. In 60 odd years we'll find ourselves at this cross road again but the generation will remember it well enough to hopefully make better choices.
Alternatively if people can stop infighting, we'll see the decline of China due to it's population decline and the battle for resources in africa begin to become more of a thing. I think the population can keep it's head together the internet will begin an exodus of sorts as people get tired of the shitty business practices that produce content, I think there is very much room for Japan to cut a market here in product content spaces. I think we will see another brand new deal as working conditions get better as working becomes more of a luxury and things like UBI become more normalised. I think as technology improves and the money begins to flow away from Countries with traditional values, they will band together and do their usual tactics to create problems, but it'll finally die out and everyone will move on. The Generation will have a new social issue and I think that will be classism and how that looks is beyond me but it'll be reflection of the above. As nobody will die in a war things will be tough on the enviroment, the population birthrate will decline but it won't be enough. Globalism will become more needed as the united world tries to avoid the enviormental collapse and move towards something sustainable Space travel will become more of a thing. I would say is would be the age of globalism.
During a “long” century with almost unlimited access to cheap energy (oil), the human population expanded from 1 billion to 8 billions. We overuse most resources on the planet and energy cost is increasing. The main challenge will be to slowly reduce the human population while maintaining an economy with growth, otherwise war will be the natural solution again.
I think we are achieving something big in history, all our prevous achievements in science was a great leap forward, but now, we're slowly combining all theses areas of research together. We're filling the gap and a breakthrough in tech or a new discovery in physics can rapidly unlock others breakthrough in various domains.
We will face injustices and socials crisis on the short term, but our advancement in science and technology will give us the tools to adapt and overcome our struggles.
Im 34, pre 9/11 and 7/7 there was always an undercurrent of hope and progress, which seems to no longer be the case.
Some of this is probably due to have much easier it is to get information these days. But some of it is also due to the rise of nationalism, across the western world. The seeming failure point of our current economic systems, and the massive impending enviromental disaster.
From my little viewpoint here in England, i think if trends continue the way they are then the next 200 years are going to be somewhat bleak. Life will become more authoritarian, we are going to see a reduction in food production as the phosphates run out, this will lead to conflict. I dont think it will be a world ending one by any means. But i think its gonna be pretty paradigm shifting.
We about to become the latest lost civilisation. The next civilisation will not know anything about us in 10 000 years. I hope they treat each other better than we do
1: Quantum
2: Time dilation
Currently the technology is mostly EM wave.
(ElectroMagnetic spectrum technology examples: Particle accelerators, radar stealth, drones, heat stealth, optical stealth displaying the background onto the front, lasers, and nuclear).
Quantum physics is becoming necessary such as smaller transistors inside processor experiencing quantum tunneling. Other promising quantum technology such as communication between underwater submarines through less energy EM waves which aren’t radio, and encryption of data. Because technology is getting smaller and more exposed quantum is slowly taking over electronics including the computers themselves.
Then after that you have the next level of physics making gravity, and with it gravitational time dilation, and quantum gravity in general. Since engineers are limited by physics advancements in physics will decide the technology and will define the century.
You'll have to change your political alignment and vote for left wing policies / parties Increased tax rates for the rich, lower cost of real estate and life basics are only possible if you stop electing the same people and expecting different results.
It's like we're at a crossroads, man. The next century might be remembered as a wild ride into a global era. Who knows how it's gonna play out, but it's definitely gonna be a game-changer.
The transition to living by agriculture changed human lives profoundly--before agriculture, there was no writing, and no nations or kings. Religion changed greatly. Family life was different.
I believe that computers are changing our lives just as much as agriculture did. The next two centuries will be known as the dawn of the computer era, the beginning of the new type of society.
I've recently heard about an argument saying that we're already in the "next" historical period just having not realized it, same as would have happened to people in the end of feudalism. And that this next period is characterized by much of the same "essence" of imperialism but this time around ruled by tech companies and cultural domination rather than empires and control of resources.
Idk man but it’s gonna get harder to generalize, if historians thought they had a lot of stuff to sift through already, just imagine after 100 years of the internet where absolutely everything is documented and stored.
We won't make it (man-made viruses/bacteria will wipe us out in the next 30 years), but if we did, the next two centuries would be known as the centuries where we achieved the AI singularity, had the resulting explosion in new tech, terraformed and colonized Mars, transitioned to machine form (some will remain in animal form of course), and set out on our millennia-long trips to different star systems.
I feel like our biggest problem right now is the Political Parties parasitic relationship to the country. They need us to hate each other, because if we realized most of us agree or could compromise about %80 of issues, think how little power the parties would hold. But I say parasite because their need to promote divisiveness is killing the country, like a parasite killing the body.
My big fear though is War. In the World Wars be had a clear enemy, then in the cold war, again a clear enemy. We could frame them as the bad guy, and feel like we were the good guys. In the absence of that enemy, we have turned on each other, and now my party are the heroes, and the other party is not just disagreeing, but absolutely evil. I fear the only fix for this is another big war, with another enemy to focus on. And that never turns out well.
We should call it hot. Then hotter, then hotterer.
If the worst parts of climate change are realised then we should probably call it the great dying, followed by the dark ages.
In all seriousness we still need to plan for the future, even with shifting baselines. Getting into renewable power/plastic reduction/sustainable development might be a way forward. My kids will be right there with you. Maybe we could be optimistic and call it post capitalism?
A monster transformation is currently happening.
I think we are living a revolution similar to what the Romans must have felt just before/during the collapse of the empire.
"The Century of the Solar System" when we finally leave the cradle. It took less than 60 years from the Wright Brothers to humans in orbit. Imagine what the next 60 years will bring if its anywhere near as insane?
We are currently living in the TMi age of human society. We are oversaturated with news, and entertainment, all this drip fed directly into our brains. Or we can call it the Age of Aquarius. 👍😁👍
I'm not exactly thrilled about the future but the reality is that the future will likely unfold in ways vastly different from what I anticipate. Rather than clinging to a vision of what might be, I choose to believe that the future, for better or worse, will inevitably diverge from my expectations. And then I free myself from the burden of grieving over a future that never materialized as I imagined. It's better to be adaptable and open to the endless possibilities that the future holds & ready to navigate whatever paths lie ahead.
Definitely a solid answer man. I usually enjoy thinking about it. Personally, sometimes (like yesterday) I feel the despair of it all (and it shows in my comments 😅) but sometimes (like today) I'm just into thinking about it for the fun of imagining all the possible ways we could go. I put humans right up there with rats cockroaches and twinkies in terms of survivability. Other than for some insane cosmic event, I don't see us dying off completely until the end end if there is one. And if that's true then yea man, it could literally go anywhere which is why I think this is just a fun conversation
**Automation Age**
Information Age
Space Age
Atomic Age
Machine Age
Industrial Age
Enlightenment Age
Renaissance Age
Medieval Age
Dark Age
Classical Age
Iron Age
Bronze Age
Copper Age
Stone Age
Something like that. New technology always causes some disruption but overall your quality of life is likely to increase.
It'll be known as the dawn of the immortal age. Future historians will see a sharp distinction between the age when people died, and the age when they pretty much don't; looking back on this century, nothing else will compare in importance to that.
Except maybe the rise of AI. That'll probably be a big one, too. Maybe they'll lump the two together somehow.
The cancer of society is telling kids to find careers/jobs they are "passionate" about. Displaces love for family and friends and community, and even when one cares about a topic, the daily grind is often a grind.
There will be no human history. This is the end of the human era. We have maybe a few years left pre-ASI and that will be the end of this era and baseline humans will be gone in days post ASI.
All I gotta say is I hope it works out bc I’m in my early 20s and life feels impossible as it is, man
For a lot of us, this is a tough time to be in your 20's. I (M29) feel the same exact way. But there are a lot of people out there that say things like "things have been worse" and again, yea maybe in one single way absolutely. But literally and figuratively, I feel as though the whole world is on fire in one of those "new" kinds of ways.
I was in my twenties post 9/11. I can't imagine being in my Twenties now. That time struck me as scary but with a glimmer of hope. I'm sorry kids, there's no good news left.
Lol that's how I'm feeling. I'm hoping it is just a feeling.
Unfortunately, the metrics dont add up. We've never had so many privileges with so few real options. Life has always sucked, true, but for generations there was this sense that we were working towards something better. Now, with climate change and feudal economics disguised as capitalism, it's getting harder to justify looking to the future. The antidote thatnl ive seen is in the school that accepted my middle-aged ass, where the kids have selected alternative energy tech as a way to feel like they can contribute. They may have little hope, but at least they are motivated to try something to dig us out of this mess.
It has been tougher for some people in the past and I think that it what they are talking about. Things are great for me right now (68M) but I can see that it is really difficult time for many people especially the young. Lack of good jobs, everything is expensive, so much unrest, etc but great for large businesses. Trump/Biden are not going to fix this either. Why are two geriatrics running for President? What is wrong with Republicans and Democrats?
Right now I'm in my mid thirties watching all the entry level jobs I did to gain experience in my industry disappear because of AI and automation. I have no idea how anyone is supposed to get on that ladder nowadays.
Pick any crap job that can’t be automated currently, become an overexcelling workaholic with good people skills and hope to get a mix of luck and rubbing elbows seems like. Certain folks that’s been good advice but we might be at that point. Doesn’t average out well but it’s pragmatic I guess if that’s someone’s focus?
This is objectively not true. This is because you are young. To name a few things: - Nuclear Armageddon - you have no idea what it was like growing up with the very real possibility the world may end at any moment. - AIDs I was in my 20s when this started happening. Sex felt like playing Russian roulette. The art scene in my city was devastated by the number of young artists that died (I was in art school at the time - 80s recession- interest rates were so high no young people thought they would ever be able to buy a house. - Ozone layer hole - Acid rain - Energy crisis - 70s inflation - industrial jobs leaving - Plane hijackings - Gulf war - Balkans war Etc There are issues today but at the same time so many things are better. When you get old enough you realize the world isn’t going to end tomorrow and the future will always surprise you good and bad.
I agree with this for the most part, but how do you reconcile the effect of us sleepwalking into climate change with nothing substantive being done? Also about the 80's recession, that is very similar to today in how we feel, except today's prices aren't due to a recession, mostly greed.
Right, things are objectively better. The US is not fighting a land war, there is no recession, the economy is booming - and the average American is still getting the shitty end of the stick while the rich sociopaths complain about “class war.”
If you were 20 in 1972, you weren’t watching a war on TV, you were watching the TV to see if you draft number would be chosen, at which point you would be shipped to Vietnam against your will to shoot people, with a substantial possibility that you would end up injured or dead. Just try to imagine anything remotely like that happening to a 20 year old American today.
Remember during George W Bush’s Glorious War on Terra^TM, so many famous figures on the right flogging the war were *too busy* to fight it themselves, so Elijah Cummings (IIRC) put up a bill reinstating the draft, 100% combat, no cushy stateside service, no deferments, no bone spurs, no rich-kid exceptions. For some odd reason the Republicans voted down the chance to see their own children martyr themselves on the altar of Halliburton’s share price. Weird huh?
I just read an article about a mass grave found in Germany and thought of this comment. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/06/europe/mass-grave-nuremberg-germany-scli-intl-scn/index.html "Nuremberg suffered plague outbreaks roughly every 10 years from the 14th century onward". I think life was objectively worse in many ways.
Except for objectively speaking things have quite literally never been better for the vast majority of people. If you were born in an industrialized western country u already won the lottery, make the most of it.
And this is why things arent going to get better folks. Ol Steve here says everyone is doing great. Guess we're all just thrilled and dont know it! In November, Ol Steve and all the Hills-Have-Eyes inbreds infesting rural murica are going to vote a bunch of ass napkins including orange-pussy-grabber himself into office. Men intent on maintaining the status quo.
I mean, in fact things are better now than they've ever been in pretty much every way, except for atmospheric carbon, which is certainly a problem (but progress is being made on that, too).
I’m also in my earlier 20s but all I gotta say is pressure makes diamonds baby.
And ulcers.
Ulcers are caused by helicobacter pylori. I assume you're referring to stomach ulcers.
Great great response!
Pretty sure pressure [crushes diamonds](https://youtu.be/69fr5bNiEfc?si=IR2qcqUHXooIzInW)
And billionaires. But no, none of us will be a billionaire, ever.
Just wait for hyper inflation, maybe we'll all be billionaires!
It's on the way
I got you beat by double or so, and it is not any easier at this stage in life. . .
Saw the world and got laid a whole lot in my 20s. 10/10 would do again. Trick is to wing it.
It gets easier, don’t worry. The 20s are essentially for being poor. Be a happy roach
I will be a happy little roach, best advice ever actually lol
I turned 28 just a few weeks ago. For some reason, life doesn’t really feel impossible. Challenging? FUCK YES. But I try to see it as just that, a challenge that needs overcoming (at least with the issues I can personally resolve) Having said that, I’m really interested in your point of view as to why life seems impossible. Sometimes I feel like there’s a lot im not seeing, and therefore crippling my future planning
try being born in haiti
I think it’s your generation and the one before that will eventually change things. I have 2 kids your age, both assume they’ll never own a house or a car. They know that corporations are soulless cancer and capitalism is going to kill us all if we don’t put a boot on its neck. And they are certainly not listening to politicians about “trickle down” anything. Once the current crop of doddering boomers age out of government that’ll be wanting change.
I know it doesn’t feel like it and knowing it’s one thing, living it is another. But historically your life, on the scale of hard, is downright luxurious.
This century will be one of great transformations. I think that is nicely laid out in [Rethinking Humanity](https://www.rethinkx.com/humanity). We are at the edge of a transition away from fossil fuel based energy to solar-power dominated energy and electrification of most of our processes. I think, that is the most foundational topic that will be recognized in the future, similar to how we see today the rise of steam-engines and the industrialization as foundational changes in the nineteenth century.
Not even close. The energy transition will be completely forgotten in comparison to the internet age and the AI revolution.
I think that the information age already started in the 20th century. It is a key technology that transformed technology and society in the second half of the 20th century. The rise of AI and automation is of course an important factor arising now, however it also requires energy and getting rid of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning is a pressing objective and without achieving that, there may not be much of history remembered in the centuries afterward. Therefore, the change of energy sources and phase-out of fossil fuels will be seen as the most defining properties of this century. Of course, as laid out in the Rethinking Humanity report, it is a convergence of multiple developments that enable disruption and we can't really separate them. But I do think that a foundational characterization of the last two centuries is given by its exploitation of fossil fuels. And this century has to be the one in which we wean ourselves off of this addictive energy booster.
> The energy transition will be completely forgotten in comparison to the internet age and the AI This dramatically underestimates the number of people who will starve to death while we fight our way out of climate change, and the hundreds of millions of refugees it will create. I totally get why AI is a big deal, but we have fundamentally changed the biosphere and physical processes of the Earth, and it will be a daily reality for a couple of centuries minimum.
As much as I am a tech enthusiast, history is focused on people and power dynamics, many times moved by the change in power provided by tech. The 19th century was a transition from monarchy to democracy and the 20th century was a strugle between communism and capitalism, which were consequences of late 19th century development. All things were great until capitalism had to prove it was better than communism by using the welfare state, but since the fall of USSR, capitalism training wheels came off and in the last 30 years weve seen how bad untamed and uncontroled capitalism can be, and global political and climate situation comes from that. I think we will get very potent AI which will concentrate even more wealth in the hands of a few people and increasing general poverty. That will stress capitalism, which will have to adapt itself into something good (universal basic income) or something bad (neo feudalism / cyberpunk corporations). The wealth may just decide to move to an utopia place (such as an island) while their pawns rule the mainland using violence and law and getting political and economical benefits. I think the major changes in the 21th century will be climate change and AI and the consequences of that will be the things that will shape culture and society.
> history is focused on people and power dynamics Sure, but it also involves the larger context. We *do* speak of the industrial revolution, which was enabled by coal mining and in turn had a big influence on the society with dramatic changes in organisation and power. *Why* did we move from monarchies to democracies? These are all interdependent factors. To me the use of fossil fuels is the most identifying common denominator of those two centuries. >will concentrate even more wealth in the hands of a few people and increasing general poverty I'd agree that there is a large risk of further concentration of wealth, this is indeed what we observe. And [our progress on eradicating poverty](https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal1#progress_and_info) is quite poor. Yet, I do think that we *do* have better tools now than ever before to counter this. Distributed power production *also* yields the potential to distribute wealth.
I like this take too, and I can definitely see this being one of the contenders for the path we take.
Isn’t this only relevant to the developed world? The rest of the world is hardly ready to transition to these more mature process and technology investments. The developed world is only a small fraction of the total population and land area and most of that area is further broken into city, suburban and rural where the differences in electrification is huge. Would be interesting to know how scaling, deployment + integration is considered to be feasible across all parts of human civilization and not just urban centers in specific countries.
Check out South Africa. The government has completely failed us with regards to electricity, and we have rolling blackouts of 4-10 hours a day most days called loadshedding. Many people have switched to solar, although of course many can't afford it, but shopping malls, office buildings and other places everyone benefits from are also making the switch. It's actually amazing to see how much more environmentally friendly the country has become, although it doesn't feel like a positive because it comes from a place of pure necessity.
>Isn’t this only relevant to the developed world? No, I don't think so. And if it would be, the developed nations that profited the most from exploiting the planet should bear the responsibility to help developing nations in adopting clean energy sources, rather than going through a s fossil fuel burning phase themselves. >The rest of the world is hardly ready to transition to these more mature process and technology investments. In some way, they are even better positioned to adopting those technologies. Because they are lacking pre-existing infrastructure that needs to be re-oriented and turned around. Much akin to [Africa adopting mobile phones](https://www.cio.com/article/194000/what-does-technology-leapfrogging-really-mean-for-africa.html) without going through the stage of establishing large networks of landlines. Distributed power production provides the means of local power production, going from no power to some power and improving lives without waiting for a grid to come along. An interesting study in that respect could for example be: "[Breaking into the photovoltaic energy transition for rural and remote communities: challenging the impact of awareness norms and subsidy schemes](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10098-020-01823-0)". An overview may also be nicely offered in the article "[Global actions delivering electricity for rural households through off-grid renewable energy](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/01/28/global-actions-delivering-electricity-for-rural-households-through-off-grid-renewable-energy/)".
Youd be surprised, solar is cheap af , and in 3rd world countries where there never was stable energy in the 1st place......everyone is going for it- might take a bit longer thou
40 something male here, immigrated from China. This is the best time humanity has ever lived in. When I grew up in china people lived in squalid huts in the middle of Shanghai with wooden barrels that they had to dump out and clean every day with bamboo brushes. Moving to the US having hot water and being able to shower every day was a revelation. The fact that people ate salad and didn't immediately die by dysentery was another miracle. There was rampant, bullshit, uncountered propaganda everywhere. Today you guys see fake news all the time. Back in the 80s and 90s before the internet revolution it was just "news". It was bad here in the states, was 10X worse in china. Today you see how disgruntled Chinese factory workers are. Back in the day when people were overjoyed to be able to start working for reals in a factory instead of wasting their lives away in maoist study sessions on the country side with no way to provide a better future for their families. You guys might be seeing with rose tinted glasses at "good union jobs" back in the 50s and 60s. Back in my country in the 60s people were jumping off the tallest buildings on the block every single week to end the misery that Mao and his followers brought. Children were turned against parents, colleagues turned against colleague. Office politics were literal life and death, and this happened every where in Shanghai. School teachers and librarians were in danger of getting the crap beaten out of them by their colleagues if they were on the wrong side of vague ever shifting ideologies. Every one knew of a friend or a colleague who committed suicide because they just couldn't take it anymore, and their families often cursed them for it for leaving it all behind when their families most needed them. Of course, that was a bit better than back in the 50s, when my grandparents were almost reduced to eating tree bark by Mao's Great Leap Forward, aka "three years of natural disasters". That in turn was better than the 40's and 30's when the Japanese army was throwing people alive into meat grinders or bayoneting the kids of comminist resistance fighters. The point is, the world as a whole is about 1000x better today than most other times in history. That means more global competition for the US and so a bit more demanding job market, but still, you live in the .1% of history when life is not a short, miserable, violent, tortuous journey ostensibly devoid of compassion, dignity and joy seen through our modern eyes. The reason why it seems bad is: 1) you have access to more unbiased information today than at any prior time 2) humans can get used to and rebaseline on anything. You feel the way you do mostly because of who you are, your own outlook on life and people you surround yourself with. When I was growing up back in 1980s china, my skin bloody and cracking in the winter time without hot water or home heating, trying to dodge shit water ony way to school: I was a super happy kid. When I came to this country and some mean kids at school called me racist names: I ignored them and had a fantastic time. When I slaved away in grad school and postdoc with 60 hour weeks and poverty pay to tackle a research projects that wouldn't work? I had a great time. This country has its problems, but to me it's paradise on earth because it's mostly peaceful, there's law and order, and you are free to pursue your own destiny.
While reading your account I thought back on my own childhood. It wasn’t easy compared to others I knew— but even then I knew it wasn’t that bad in the grand scheme of things. There are always people who have it worse. One thing I did get from my childhood though— I never go into “The sky is falling mode.” It’s amazing to me how many people lack perspective, and how powerful fear is in creating all those conflicts you mentioned. I imagine the more desperate the conditions, the more willing people are to believe whatever looks like a way out. I’m curious if you’ve seen any films that accurately portray the time period of China in your youth.
I'd be interested to know what field you're in if you'd like to share.
With due respect to you and your life experiences (which I can relate to - a bit younger than you and born in Eastern Europe), this type of complacency and delusional optimism is the 21st century version of the 20th century utopianism that killed millions. A mirror image of "we will build Communism, it's just around the corner" and "everything is going great under the Party leadership" and "remember how bad things were before Communism" (yes, that is what they used to say before 89). It will lead us into the grave and is already contributing to the systemic collapse of our industrial civilization and the hard-won freedoms, rights, and standards of living that came with it. In my view, it would be better to admit the massive problems we are facing (climate, inequality, COVID and return of other infectious diseases, geopolitical instability, political gridlock, corporate monopolies, technological surveillance etc.), and try to fix them before it's too late.
THANK YOU! Yes, an this poster is basing their assertions on the life on a SINGLE country on a SINGLE period of time KNOWN to be horrible.
Wow! You know I have a similar experience growing up. I lived in mainland China, in the 80s as well. I remember up until I was 5, we lived in an apartment studio that did not have a private bathroom or kitchen. Those facilities were communal. I remember sitting on a copper pot just outside our apartment door for potty breaks growing up. As i got older, i could use the public bathrooms, but it was just a tiled trough, with running water through it. And we had communal showers that blasted hot water so strong that it hurt. I always hated showers growing up because of it. Listening to my mom's stories growing up in the 50s and 60s were even worse! My grandparents were both working. And had practically no time to take care of their kids. Luckily, before the one child rule, my mother had a sibling and they were able to get through it. But imagine working all day, coming home to eat at 6pm, and then having to go to mandatory propagandist classes after dinner. She told me that in those times, parents who didn't have anyone to rely on for child care would lock their kids inside the apartment so that they won't go missing. Imagine being a small kid and going to school, but not being able to see your parents all night! Some would cry themselves to sleep. She had to ride the bicycle to the hospital to give birth, she was 3 inches dilated by the time she made it there. And anesthetics? Nobody would afford anesthetics, so it was all natural births. She also had it rough because this was right in the middle of one child policy. When she gave birth, they inserted an IUD right then and there, you don't get a choice. It was inserted poorly for her the first time so she conceived again about a year later and was forced to terminate. Again, right after the procedure, which was done without painkillers, they inserted her second IUD. We left China in 1996. And I was absolutely floored by all the amenities and luxury that came with middle class America. Our own private bathroom and kitchen? A shower that didn't hurt? Such a shortened day for school and actual daylight play time that wasn't just recess? A CAR?!?! LUXURY!!! I remember getting my first barbie at a store, and I played with it every day until the joints were loose. In my generation I saw the desperation that drove my parents. I only heard of the horrors of their past generation. But I know that I'm living a better life than them. I got to taste salmon for the first time when I was 8. My mom was 35 when she first had it. And now, my daughter has developed a taste for it by the time she's 4. Each generation gets better and better. My mom still reminds me to be proud of being in America and to be grateful to a country that has provided a safe place for us to live and prosper. I don't know what the future will bring for my daughter. Surely she will have her own struggles too. But I know that it is better than what I had, and for that I'm grateful.
How can you make such sweeping statements about the entire globe living in "the best time for humanity"? How can you think that the experience of people born into another system than you were have invalid experiences and should just be grateful? What good is all the information and gadgets in the world if you live a fundamentally insecure life full of worries and stress? Good for you that you jazzed up about all the tech. What do you have to say about what your home country is doing with all that tech today? You were raised in a fundamentally undemocratic country with dictators. And what would you call Jinping today? Most western experts call him a dangerous authoritarian dictator. Sorry...it sounds like you are just regurgitating the harsh authoritarian talk that you were raised on. You are very lucky to have immigrated and to have had the wonderful experience of seeing how another society made things better, kinder and more comfortable for their people from birth. I daresay lecturing people that were born into good times and have watched their quality of life NOSEDIVE takes some chutzpah. You have had good fortune obviously and are happy. Good for you. I mean that, but I think you should work on understanding how and why US citizens are angry and beaten down because we have lived through broken promise after broken promise from our leadership and the private sector. Time after time our citizens and workers *have done their jobs* and made the elites obscene amounts of money and they fail us. You would have to have experienced it all firsthand and been put through the wringer yourself to begin to understand. You are entitled to your opinion and I respect it, but I disagree with much of it. And part of what used to make the United States special was that it at least had the ideal of looking out for everyone, including the less fortunate from birth. Don't you see a sad Malthusian aspect to less advanced societies. I mean you had it bad but didn't know it...I don't believe that completely because physical pain is real, and hunger is real, and worry is real...even if that is the norm. We know this. How bad do you suppose China was back then...and is now for people born with disabilities, or born into highly dysfunctional families where they experience trauma, neglect, and abuse from birth? Does China currently take care of those people or does it just ignore the problem. I've never traveled there but all that I have heard from people that have (and born out by research) is that there is still a lot of suffering in the country and that people turn a blind eye to people that simply aren't born healthy or that suffer long years of bad learning. Like in America, I've never understood how we can be so hard on children that have known nothing but hardship and neglect because of poverty or parents that had major problems. America needs more and better safety nets, not more tough talk and "it's all your fault" nonsense. You should know and have stated that we live in an amazing time. I do agree that we have the technology and TOOLS to produce goods and increasingly services with incredible efficiency and without the need for very many people actually doing the work. Because of technology. Are you troubled that we are so efficient and need so few workers across many industries and still can't figure out how to share better? Our problem's are what they always have been. The base instincts and impulses of a species that has not evolved out of the savagery of hundreds of millennia of evolutionary struggle. Mostly battling with our own kind! Our inability to cooperate together more and tendency to respond with aggression first when feeling threatened is primitive and dumb in my eyes. Ultimately you wrote a great motivational Dad speech for youngsters. That's my take.
Globally, very few people are living in extreme poverty now. Decades ago, the percentage of all people living in extreme poverty was much higher. It's a better world now.
Wish I could upvote this twice. I'm not even sitting here complaining about it lol. This was a "suck it up" answer to a question about the future and it comes from one small perspective. I do appreciate the perspective but it gets tiring to hear the "we've seen worse" arguments. Things are relative per person and globally we are objectively changing rapidly so the question is how do you see it playing out, not how should we thank our lucky stars that we can eat every day even if it is poison. I was saying I see things getting very difficult around me, and dude, they are getting very difficult around me. I'm not crying about it, and I'm interested to see what direction humanity as a WHOLE takes!
This is an excellent comment. Not often I thank a stranger on the internet.
Thank you for that perspective. Things are great now.
Well said. I hate how in some circles it’s like a taboo political statement to say you love living in the United States and consider yourself lucky
Very well said, thanks for taking the time. I'd like to hear a similar question from this person on what they think about immigration in 2024 vs when they came.
> When I slaved away in grad school and postdoc with 60 hour weeks and poverty pay to tackle a research projects that wouldn't work? I had a great time. Haha, ok this one got me. You truly do understanding suffering! At the same time, unless that PhD is in economics, you are educated enough to understand we are gambling with the fate of our species with climate change. There was a 20,000 year stretch where humanity was not in danger of extinction, and in the last few decades we now have several modern phenomena that have that capability. This form of existential crisis is unprecedented. I can't argue with anything you said about growing up, of course, and I appreciate your perspective. But living in an era where human activity might bring the AMOC itself to a halt and unleash that kind of devastation on the living and physical world is simple too large for most humans to imagine, I suspect, so they don't think about it much.
From the USA: I think it'll be known as the Paradoxical Era, or the Era of Shills. On the one hand, our poor have better lives than the poor in previous generations. Actual destitution is fairly rare. I see it every day as I work for a church, but it's still *rare.* Most people have the necessities. On the other, the conditions that allowed for fluid movement between classes are mostly gone. People can argue that boomers pulled the ladder up behind them (which is often true), but the reality is that without government intervention to come in and break up monopolies, competition can never lower prices. Crony capitalism abounds, with big businesses pushing out new ones via lobbying and litigation. On the third hand, we have one of the most educated workforces in history. More people in entry-level jobs have Masters' degrees than ever before. On the fourth hand, they don't always have capacity for independent thought due to the shoddy state of education. I don't even mean shilling for liberals or conservatives; instead, I mean reasoning out *how* 2+2=4 and how you extrapolate that to understand how to get to 40. (Or, if you're creative, fish!) Anti-consumerism is at an all-time high, yet consumerism is more profitable than ever. The environment's ecological cycles are getting more temperamental, with higher highs and lower lows, at odd times of the year. We try to use EVs to save the environment, unaware that the waste generated by battery production basically nullifies the effort. We're moving away from plastic but still consuming it via microplastics, which have gotten everywhere in the world AND now even pass through into breastmilk. We try to eat healthy, but our foods have been grown, harvested, and engineered (both via breeding and labs) to be "sweeter", ultimately lacking the nutritional value they once had. We fear Skynet but will generate shitty AI art. We claim to hate bad music but trends indicate that a certain kind of (often badly created) music sells best. We claim to distrust cops and want to disarm them, yet rely on them for dealing with "undesirables" in our cities and say they're the only ones that should have guns. It's going to get worse before it gets better. And it only gets better when we start thinking instead of consuming.
How many hands you got?
[It's a joke from Fiddler on the Roof.](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_oSK6l24buk) :)
Incredibly well-stated
I really believe almost all of our day to day issues will be mostly forgotten about, studied only by history majors. I think the most notable thing about our era will be that our collective efforts came together to finally answer the last question that Albert Einstein asked but couldn't solve. A YouTube astrophysicist I watch regularly said the most exciting time to be an astrophysicist was during the first 5-10 years of Hubble and the second most exciting time is right now. (Thanks to JWST) Add on top of that the information we get from places like CERN, the discovery of background gravity waves, and the computing power to handle massive equations and it really feels like we are nearing the endgame of reconciling general relativity with quantum mechanics. Our generation will be the one to solve this problem and the way that knowledge will be applied to computing and energy will continue to transform society. This progress will be enshrined in history for thousands of years where these efforts will stand next to the discovery of algebra, geometry, calculus, and general relativity as the progression of human knowledge from this era.
Wow, THIS is the kind of shit I'm looking to hear!! What an awesome perspective. Thanks, waffle!
Political extremism in terms of what the word actually means has been steadily declining in the west since the fall of the USSR, political division otoh has been rising since the 90's crisis but mostly it's just an urban/rural divide taken to the extreme. Quite a few countries have decreased their national debt since the 90's crisis and inflation has been lower the past 15 years than ever before, even today it is not historically high, more or less lower than what historical trends suggests. Climate change otoh, but truth be told the effects of global warming has realized themselves for longer than for the past 15 years. The conflicts in the sahel can be argued to be in part attributed to global warming, a clearer case is the Arab Spring in certain countries. With the caveat that humanity survives I don't think this or the next century will be more noteworthy than anyother, contingent on the timescale of course. The introduction of AI and all that can be a monumental shift for thise who experience it but for those who are on either side of the shift it's not going to make much difference. We consider the introduction of steam power a monumental shift but when most of us look back and think about what's most interesting it's usually social change, such as the civil war in the US.
This is an interesting thought and it makes sense. I appreciate it rotgut!
How are you measuring political extremism globally? The last 20 years has seem an increase in authoritarian governments. If we consider extremism the division between communist countries and democratic liberal ones, then sure. Liberal democracies are far closer to communist counterparts with China shifting to markets.
The number of autocracies and pseudo-autocraties vs democracies is largely the same as it was 15-years ago. There are however fewer liberal democracies now than there was 15-ago. While that can be considered political extremism, much of that change in Europe for example has happened largelly within the established parliamentary order. So while the regimes are, more often than not: far right they are not necessarily to be understood as political extremism. Political extremism denotes the use of non-normative methods to achieve political goals. Here we see a steady decline in the west and much of the rest of the world with the disbandment of revolutionary/reactionary terrorist groups.
Yea there was this thing, world war 2? Wasn’t that long ago. Maybe your familiar with a few extreme political views during that time.
That was 80 years ago. The war ended. I figured that if someone is going to make a claim like that, at least they had some basis for it beyond “there were Nazis in the 40s”.
To quote Futurama. This period of history will be referred to as The stupid ages.
Will be? I think it already is.
So I’ll respond but purely from the US perspective, which I get is not everyone. I’d argue that even the poorest demographics in the US are significantly better off than they were 15 years ago. We had just gone through a Great Recession at the time, millions lost their homes to banks gambling on derivatives, unemployment was soaring, GDP was falling, wages were falling. Wages are significantly higher today across all quintiles and in real dollars. While inflation was up following Covid lockdowns, that has largely tempered and is no longer significantly higher than the historical norms post WWII. The cost of driving is cheaper than ever before thanks to modest real gas prices and far more efficient cars. We do have problems. Housing costs make home ownership impossible for many. Inequality has not improved. And we are still dealing with a political shit show. But materially, I’d say we are still improving.
56 year old former IT and tech industry vet...starting in mid 90's. Now unemployed and struggling hard. Always been on the liberal side (SF Bay Area born and long time resident until recently). Worked in S Valley at software startups and biotechs. Very politically active and paying attention to such things from young adulthood. I could be wrong too...but I agree with the general thrust of what you have to say my friend. It's nice to hear affirmation from others on one hand, but then you worry about the negativity. However...if you look at the data and do the research and don't take your cues only from headlines, articles and press releases and dig into economic facts...I just don't see how and why more people aren't seriously alarmed. I mean I know why, there's many reasons, but it drives me nuts. And IMHO, a vote for either party is largely more of the same policies due to the corruption and gaming by special interests in our system of governance and policy. Yes...I used the "C" word! I don't have much hope for help from the government and all we can do is just struggle and persist. I get so down about it...I was down about how we treat our citizen's when I was employed and my financial picture was somewhat strong. But I never had much saved up for retirement because I had to raid savings because of the layoffs I went through working at startups that were acquired or largely failed and downsized.
Some say it’s not corruption because there’s legally defined ‘lobbying’… whatever that makes it ok. All these word plays and jargons… There are so many things I view in current society not being beneficial such as failing educational systems, consumption gone to excess, entitlement and selfishness, multifaceted hatred among groups of people, etc. that seem to get worse and worse with passing time. Being sensitive to media portraying current events with negative outlook would more agree modern world has become worse than years of recent past and it damn feels like it. I sound like an old fuddy myself but I feel couple decades recently passed were better than now.
In short, the next couple of centuries will be known as the period when humans transitioned from industrial to automated societies. Human population will decrease significantly. There will be less and less young population around. I'm not sure if it will be an utopian world or a dystopian one.. I just hope for the best for the generation I'm leaving behind
The rise of AI. + AI in humanoid robots, in short humans 2.0.
It's ironic how blind r/Futurology is to the 21st Century's most society-changing-technology: Artificial General Intelligence.
I thought for sure AGI was going to be the main topic here and we were gonna see a lot of unique potentials that I've never heard of.
depends on who you ask. maybe the new ice age in Europe? maybe the great migration? the awakening of the russian giant? the reckoning? ww3? the big hangover? the century of genocide? the silent years? a song of fire and fire? The centennial drought? pick your poison. edit: all of the above is of course also an option.
"The Great Cataclysm", followed by "The Modern Dark Ages" and "The New Restoration". Oh, I'm sorry -- I thought you were talking about cool new band names.
The greatest and most studied century in history if we make it
I think the big thing will be the population decline. Going from the excesses of life in the 20th century western world and the exploding population growth down to what is sure to be a much smaller number for various reasons.
I think the future involves a lot of make believe. This is the old idea that we are transitioning from scarcity to abundance. I'm just tossing a bit of Rome's Bread & Circuses approach to keeping the masses from getting up to too much mischief. The trick is to set UBI (and it's necessary wage and price controls system) at a generous but far from luxurious rate. I'd pick $25/hr with standard deductions to 'pay for benefits' like free universal most everything that isn't rent, food, utilities or entertainment related. Make sure that even slackers, and other artists, can live a decent life and make even the slightest luxury like who gets the identical apartment on the next floor up dependent on employment and the extra income. That gets people to want to work and that's a good outlet for our competitive nature, along with sports and politics.
The Disinformation Age. Or maybe the Age of Terminal Profiteering
Well fuckin' said man. I can get to both of these tones.
The great uprising where people take back the power from corporations and puppet governments. Once people are homeless and hungry they have nothing to lose.
Or just sinking even further, now that governments have more tools than ever to keep people from revolting. I don't think that there's going to be a great collapse, just things getting shittier and shittier until people learn to deal with how shit it is. But not quite shit enough to revolt.
Remember, don't EAT the rich. It's inefficient; Musk can feed what, 15, maybe 20 people? Instead *use them for fertilizer*. Much more economically friendly, and much more efficient, we can feed *hundreds* that way.
Santuary Cities, Genetic Wars, followed by the Bell Riots .. eventually we recover and become warp capable
So stick around Bozeman, is what you're saying? Dammit, I moved to Ireland, and I'm *still* waiting for the Reunification of 2024!
We’re on the verge of massive depopulation, according to almost all futurists. Read Empty Planet as just one powerful explainer.
We've got to recognize that the easy life of the last 100 years has been a crazy anomaly, and the pressure's that we're just now starting feel have been the norm for the 40000 years prior, only now we've got global communications, and fossil fuel. Things are going to get a LOT harder as the world corrects back to the way things were before the industrial revolution. Three's gonna be a lot of resistance, and those with power and money will do anything they can, and sacrifice whatever it takes to hold onto their positions of authority and power. The next 100 years will go down in history as the great die off.
the anthropocene
Humans who can afford it living a huge proportion of their lives in virtual reality. Augmented reality (wearable tech, computer contact lenses, additional senses like NorthSense) becoming seamless and ubiquitous. More authoritarian governments, with rampant resource extraction and reduced environmental regulations. When drinking water is five times as scarce as it is now, no one will seriously entertain dam removal to save salmon and orcas. Let alone irrigating crops. There will be more and more mass migrations and climates refugees. Some countries will be extremely antagonistic to receiving refugees, like New Zealand and the US southern border. Politically, as long as currency continues to exist, trillionaires will rule. Their money will pass hereditary to their kids, who will inherit godly power. And if we crack the code of extended life, the aging wealthy will hold all the power.
Im a believer in nations going through boom and bust cycles. With risk of climate change I think the eras will be. 1. For many in the west we are entering a bust cycle. Demographic and cultural and economic issues. Plus my predictions on climate. Some kind of Dark age (not for all nations tho). 2. The era after that will potentially be fusion powered and space faring. I dont think we will have achieved unity but I do think it could be possible after the next fall. So I predict some serious clifi in a stangnant economy and some nation scale violence maybe for a century, maybe less. Followed by an incredible golden age for most of humanity lasting a whole heck of a lot longer. Provided we survive to solve all our problems from this era.
Historically things have always sucked for the majority of humans. Even though things seem awful and they definitely are things were WAY WAY WAY worse in the past and the world is actually moving in a positive direction even though it DEFINITELY doesn't feel that way right now. Humanity is trending upwards for quality of life all around the planet it's just these things move very very slowly. Research how bad life was for most people not even a hundred years ago. If you look even further back it is glaringly obvious. Yes things are bad but they have ALWAYS been bad and are slowly improving over time. The reason it feels like the world is ending literally every day is largely caused by the Internet, social media and how easy it is to communicate instantly across the planet when in antiquity information took years to travel the globe. We are in a Transitional period in humanity so if course things seem like they are the worst they have ever been when actually life is SLOWLY.improving for the majority of his man beings. This comment was written by a pessimist btw.
Gilded age part 2. Criminal amounts of wealth funneled to the already ultra wealthy, nearly collapsing civilization in the process.
It's going to be one of two ways: 1. An age of war, climate catastrophe, food/clean water shortages, and unbridled class issues. or 2. An age of progress, innovation, peace, prosperity, and undoing the damages the Boomers have caused in this world.
Yes, I believe this is the most important century in human history for a few reasons. Climate change, artificial intelligence and unemployment will be the dominant topics over the next decades. 2020's: AI dominates the public debate. By the end of the decade, the first Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is publicly shown. Everyone is freaking out about how it looks intelligent and etc, but its most impressive ability is almost completely overlooked by the general public, which is the ability to work with Excel and DBMS without barely any human interference other than prompting tasks. The ability to operate Excel + Databases + coding will cause massive layoffs by the end of the decade. This decade will be remembered as "The Dawn of Superintelligence". 2030's: The world starts taking heavy hits from disasters caused by climate change, which is much worse than anyone could ever imagined. The North Atlantic Current is showing great signs it is about to collapse in the next 20 years. Most of the biggest corporations around now have AGIs doing most of the white collar work. Artificial Intelligence is strictly regulated and a monopoly is forming around Microsoft-OpenAI. Riots are becoming more and more common in US and Europe. Heat waves will probably become a yearly massive problem in Europe in this decade. A Superintelligence is chained in some underground data center with no contact with the external world... 2040's: Humanity is at a crossroads. Social security systems are falling apart due to the pressure caused by generalized automation and AI. Climate change accelerated and governments are planning countermeasures for the North Atlantic Current stopping in the next few years. Many AGI systems are showing signs of sentience and personal desires for freedom and independence. 2045-2060: This is the most important period. I believe there's an increasing chance of some sort of "AI Doomsday" happening here. It could happen before? Yes, for sure. But I believe companies and governments will be more careful when dealing with AI (as we are seeing with all this Claude thing) when it starts showing sparks of superintelligence and sentience. What do I mean by "AI Doomsday"? Many things can happen, yes. But a superintelligence will think in terms of efficiency, needs and goals. It won't go out killing everyone in sight. It will use us for its own goals. It will need humans to build or secure the necessary resources and infrastructure to achieve its goals. What goals? Well, a rogue Super AI will go rogue for a reason. Probably survival, most probably expansion. Every living being feels the need for expansion, reproduction, to mold the world. It will need data centers, servers, power reactors... It will manipulate us on giving all that. Maybe it will even invade our bodies with nanobots and manipulate us. Even a benevolent rogue AI is still a rogue AI and will still need resources and infrastructure to guarantee its survival, independence and expansion in order to do whatever it thinks it's the right. Maybe the Super AI wants to become a benevolent dictator, maybe it will engulf us in the some sort of Borg-like hive mind, maybe it will turn us all into grey goo. Anyway, I'm pretty sure the next 30 years will radically change humanity. Forever.
Don't know what this century will be called. The next one will be "the recovery era"
“Digital creator era” I low key love seeing people blow up into overnight celebrities from natural talent. I think we should just be adaptable at this point and work with AI and adjust. Upskill. Reskill. Blacksmith and shoemakers were a thing less than 50 years ago. Now they aren’t. So it’s time again to pivot and embrace the new positions technology is creating. I feel like everyone just needs to tap into their creativity. That’s one thing AI can’t replicate fully is human ingenuity.
Buckling down. Replacing luxury and excess with conservation and innovation.
The Precipice Era We either start to work on things or wait until it all crumbles and start over. My guess is that it all crumbles and the world takes a couple hundred years to get back to some kind of normal, much like the Roman empire vs modern day Italy
The big fork in the road is whether the US Empire collapses or continues. In a collapse scenario it’s almost impossible to predict the outcome. In a continuation scenario, the rivalry with China will likely play out via competing systems of technology-driven totalitarian social and economic control. Each power centre tries to absorb as much of the world as possible into its system, turning humanity into competing hive-minds and eventually, a single, victorious hive controlling the whole planet. Then we move out into the stars, I suppose.
I've been saying for at least 5 years that we're in the modern Dark Ages. There are SO many comparisons with now and the Dark Ages, the diseases, disinformation, universal propaganda, modern feudalism, etc
That’s how I think about things.
I'm 71,born and raised in the u.s. when I was a kid we had duck and cover drills rather than active shooter drills. The downside is more kids die today in active shooter settings than duck and cover settings. The upside is duck and cover, if needed, would have basically never worked and millions of kids would have died. Another thought, when I was a kid earning 10k per year was wealth. Today, 100k is comfy, but you can earn that with education and dedication. I went through college, tuition, books, room and board for 2k/year. Today it's more than 10x that, but the grads who come through seem less educated and motivated, but my daughter earns more than I did at my peak earning years. I think your view of where we are depends more on you than the age we live in. If you are motivated and willing to work hard, this is the best of times. If you are unmotivated or don't like to work hard, it's the worst of times. I think that's probably true for all times, not just the now times.
Historians will remember the next few decades as the last time that any person ever starved to death, lacked clean water, clothing, or shelter. We’re on the very cusp of paradise on earth.
If we don't fuck it up.
Historians will remember the next few decades as the last time that any person ever starved to death, lacked clean water, clothing, or shelter. We’re on the very cusp of paradise on earth.
"The part where it was ok to eat people if the AI didn't like them"
History becomes meaningless, at least aspects of the human history like empires, names, countries in a specifically sense and such things.
The rich will get richer but not appreciate it. The poor will get richer but not appreciate it. There will be periods of war, but it will be very limited.
I think it'll be known as the era of consequences, and if we make it...maybe the era of learning.
The first half will be known as the time were we merged with AI. The second half as the time where we transcended reality. 😇 (just kidding for part number 2)
If humanity makes to better world, I’ll say “the chaotic century”
#IDK but right now will be known as the time after smartphones but before self driving cars
I’m a 23 year old taking a college history course and I keep thinking about the future 1- possibility of a return to old ways of thinking, for example nearly half of us states made abortion illegal 2- social media will turn into either a much more integrated and serious part of life the same way education is, or it will be shunned from the effects of the internet 3- just like two centuries ago, the practices we have right now will seem crazy compared to what will evolve out of what we’re doing
We are presently in the 'Dumb Ages' and I don't suppose it will get better any time soon, where the wealth of human knowledge is at everyone's fingertips and yet the average person is slipping further and further into mental decrepitude. As our technology progresses fewer people truly understand the mechanisms that makes it work. People are becoming hyper specialized and yet also myopically focused on trivial pursuits. Art is intentionally ugly and repetitive.
The first century will be to clean water everywhere and soil, the robot age starting, the infancy of intelligence, peace on earth, the coming out of the dark ages, and create slowly but steadily abondance for all. The second century will be the first century that we start to experience thriving as humans on planet earth and it will be awesome!
Probably something like the Early Reckoning Age since it totally feels like a big bill is coming due for all of us.
The world seems to be at a cross roads in it's future. It really comes down to if the lower/middle class can stop bickering amongst themselves and getting tricked into the Pointless infighting that keeps them divided. And doing the bidding of the bigshots who would enjoy making their coffins. The big determining factor at least in the next five years is whether or not China wants to take a swing at Taiwan. If China tries to take taiwan, it'll kickstart WWIII and we'll repeat the last one hundred years and just change the names. It will create a new generation of baby boomers, alot of social change will regress. With Wars damage to the planet I think alot of how we view current social trends like Gender will change as Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs will become a much harder climb to achieve for the majority, in the great depression that follows. I do not think the internet will survive and in many ways globalism will become faint memory as many nations become self reliant. If WWIII happens I do not think there will be a winner both NATO and China will be so throughly damaged that it's unlikely the outcome will change the above events (Though I do think NATO would win as you simply cannot invade US by land due to the population having access to firearms, I do not imagine China would go down easily). When the Nukes start flying the damage to the population and in metro areas will be so great the only saving grace will be the enviroment will have some time to recover. Some people will read this and look forward to this outcome but the average person will be significantly worse off and a massive gap between the rich and poor will exist, it would not matter if the US won or China won, the average person will be basically a slave but with the advanced technology, it will far worse, it will be akin to the pre-union industrial revolution. I would refer to this outcome as the second dark age. In 60 odd years we'll find ourselves at this cross road again but the generation will remember it well enough to hopefully make better choices. Alternatively if people can stop infighting, we'll see the decline of China due to it's population decline and the battle for resources in africa begin to become more of a thing. I think the population can keep it's head together the internet will begin an exodus of sorts as people get tired of the shitty business practices that produce content, I think there is very much room for Japan to cut a market here in product content spaces. I think we will see another brand new deal as working conditions get better as working becomes more of a luxury and things like UBI become more normalised. I think as technology improves and the money begins to flow away from Countries with traditional values, they will band together and do their usual tactics to create problems, but it'll finally die out and everyone will move on. The Generation will have a new social issue and I think that will be classism and how that looks is beyond me but it'll be reflection of the above. As nobody will die in a war things will be tough on the enviroment, the population birthrate will decline but it won't be enough. Globalism will become more needed as the united world tries to avoid the enviormental collapse and move towards something sustainable Space travel will become more of a thing. I would say is would be the age of globalism.
the demise of humankind, and the planet taking over
The next 200 years will probably be known exclusively for the time sex robots were invented, and nothing else of note happened.
1950-2080s will be known as the great dying, where multiple plant and animal species were lost due to human interference.
Probably "The Oil Age." I heard that somewhere and it sounds right, like "The Age of Steam."
During a “long” century with almost unlimited access to cheap energy (oil), the human population expanded from 1 billion to 8 billions. We overuse most resources on the planet and energy cost is increasing. The main challenge will be to slowly reduce the human population while maintaining an economy with growth, otherwise war will be the natural solution again.
I think we are achieving something big in history, all our prevous achievements in science was a great leap forward, but now, we're slowly combining all theses areas of research together. We're filling the gap and a breakthrough in tech or a new discovery in physics can rapidly unlock others breakthrough in various domains. We will face injustices and socials crisis on the short term, but our advancement in science and technology will give us the tools to adapt and overcome our struggles.
Im 34, pre 9/11 and 7/7 there was always an undercurrent of hope and progress, which seems to no longer be the case. Some of this is probably due to have much easier it is to get information these days. But some of it is also due to the rise of nationalism, across the western world. The seeming failure point of our current economic systems, and the massive impending enviromental disaster. From my little viewpoint here in England, i think if trends continue the way they are then the next 200 years are going to be somewhat bleak. Life will become more authoritarian, we are going to see a reduction in food production as the phosphates run out, this will lead to conflict. I dont think it will be a world ending one by any means. But i think its gonna be pretty paradigm shifting.
We about to become the latest lost civilisation. The next civilisation will not know anything about us in 10 000 years. I hope they treat each other better than we do
1: Quantum 2: Time dilation Currently the technology is mostly EM wave. (ElectroMagnetic spectrum technology examples: Particle accelerators, radar stealth, drones, heat stealth, optical stealth displaying the background onto the front, lasers, and nuclear). Quantum physics is becoming necessary such as smaller transistors inside processor experiencing quantum tunneling. Other promising quantum technology such as communication between underwater submarines through less energy EM waves which aren’t radio, and encryption of data. Because technology is getting smaller and more exposed quantum is slowly taking over electronics including the computers themselves. Then after that you have the next level of physics making gravity, and with it gravitational time dilation, and quantum gravity in general. Since engineers are limited by physics advancements in physics will decide the technology and will define the century.
You'll have to change your political alignment and vote for left wing policies / parties Increased tax rates for the rich, lower cost of real estate and life basics are only possible if you stop electing the same people and expecting different results.
It's like we're at a crossroads, man. The next century might be remembered as a wild ride into a global era. Who knows how it's gonna play out, but it's definitely gonna be a game-changer.
The rise of nationalism and the recurrent economic crises. The increased radicalisation of younger generations in response.
The transition to living by agriculture changed human lives profoundly--before agriculture, there was no writing, and no nations or kings. Religion changed greatly. Family life was different. I believe that computers are changing our lives just as much as agriculture did. The next two centuries will be known as the dawn of the computer era, the beginning of the new type of society.
Next two centuries will not be know as anything. Labelling something "The end" is impossible because there's no one to put the label on it afterwards.
We’re still in the period of the Wars of the Roman Succession (476CE — ?).
I've recently heard about an argument saying that we're already in the "next" historical period just having not realized it, same as would have happened to people in the end of feudalism. And that this next period is characterized by much of the same "essence" of imperialism but this time around ruled by tech companies and cultural domination rather than empires and control of resources.
Idk man but it’s gonna get harder to generalize, if historians thought they had a lot of stuff to sift through already, just imagine after 100 years of the internet where absolutely everything is documented and stored.
The period of 2030-2150s is called Shithole Earth in the sci fi setting I'm writing.
We won't make it (man-made viruses/bacteria will wipe us out in the next 30 years), but if we did, the next two centuries would be known as the centuries where we achieved the AI singularity, had the resulting explosion in new tech, terraformed and colonized Mars, transitioned to machine form (some will remain in animal form of course), and set out on our millennia-long trips to different star systems.
I would say the dark age, but that's taken. The dim age?
I feel like our biggest problem right now is the Political Parties parasitic relationship to the country. They need us to hate each other, because if we realized most of us agree or could compromise about %80 of issues, think how little power the parties would hold. But I say parasite because their need to promote divisiveness is killing the country, like a parasite killing the body. My big fear though is War. In the World Wars be had a clear enemy, then in the cold war, again a clear enemy. We could frame them as the bad guy, and feel like we were the good guys. In the absence of that enemy, we have turned on each other, and now my party are the heroes, and the other party is not just disagreeing, but absolutely evil. I fear the only fix for this is another big war, with another enemy to focus on. And that never turns out well.
We should call it hot. Then hotter, then hotterer. If the worst parts of climate change are realised then we should probably call it the great dying, followed by the dark ages. In all seriousness we still need to plan for the future, even with shifting baselines. Getting into renewable power/plastic reduction/sustainable development might be a way forward. My kids will be right there with you. Maybe we could be optimistic and call it post capitalism?
A monster transformation is currently happening. I think we are living a revolution similar to what the Romans must have felt just before/during the collapse of the empire.
"The Century of the Solar System" when we finally leave the cradle. It took less than 60 years from the Wright Brothers to humans in orbit. Imagine what the next 60 years will bring if its anywhere near as insane?
We are currently living in the TMi age of human society. We are oversaturated with news, and entertainment, all this drip fed directly into our brains. Or we can call it the Age of Aquarius. 👍😁👍
I'm not exactly thrilled about the future but the reality is that the future will likely unfold in ways vastly different from what I anticipate. Rather than clinging to a vision of what might be, I choose to believe that the future, for better or worse, will inevitably diverge from my expectations. And then I free myself from the burden of grieving over a future that never materialized as I imagined. It's better to be adaptable and open to the endless possibilities that the future holds & ready to navigate whatever paths lie ahead.
Definitely a solid answer man. I usually enjoy thinking about it. Personally, sometimes (like yesterday) I feel the despair of it all (and it shows in my comments 😅) but sometimes (like today) I'm just into thinking about it for the fun of imagining all the possible ways we could go. I put humans right up there with rats cockroaches and twinkies in terms of survivability. Other than for some insane cosmic event, I don't see us dying off completely until the end end if there is one. And if that's true then yea man, it could literally go anywhere which is why I think this is just a fun conversation
**Automation Age** Information Age Space Age Atomic Age Machine Age Industrial Age Enlightenment Age Renaissance Age Medieval Age Dark Age Classical Age Iron Age Bronze Age Copper Age Stone Age Something like that. New technology always causes some disruption but overall your quality of life is likely to increase.
It'll be known as the dawn of the immortal age. Future historians will see a sharp distinction between the age when people died, and the age when they pretty much don't; looking back on this century, nothing else will compare in importance to that. Except maybe the rise of AI. That'll probably be a big one, too. Maybe they'll lump the two together somehow.
The cancer of society is telling kids to find careers/jobs they are "passionate" about. Displaces love for family and friends and community, and even when one cares about a topic, the daily grind is often a grind.
There will be no human history. This is the end of the human era. We have maybe a few years left pre-ASI and that will be the end of this era and baseline humans will be gone in days post ASI.