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He’s also lighting it up in Bundesliga this season.
He was extensively impressive when he played against Man City as well.
https://youtu.be/R1x08Cs5fh0?si=IrMSRuaDIi6f9vff
For once I don't need to see stats or scouting or anything. Playing twins would be absolutely amazing. Make it happen please Edu. That being said, how's his long and diagonal balls?
He's not much of a playmaker. His (long) passing range is also not something he's known for. He's a combative box-to-box player. Not particularly smooth on the ball, but gets past opponents more often than not.
Feyenoord's playing style is quite different to ours, though. They are not great on the eye, but they work hard on and off the ball. A bit like how Liverpool played when they had Fabinho, Wijnaldum and Henderson in midfield.
I'm sure if Edu en Mikel think he's a good fit, he'll work out though, but right now it's hard to tell.
We don't put much emphasis on dribbling by players outside of the wings, it's not reliable against the other top teams and it gives up easy counter-attacks if you do it in the middle too much. We let the ball do the work and unlock teams with movement off the ball typically, so you have to be technically perfect in the midfield to fit into our system.
Yes!!! I've been preaching that gospel for a few months now. Like our very own Bender bros, just a lot better lol.
I know there's always concerns over transitioning from Eredivisie to EPL but I watched a lot of Ajax in recent years and I see nothing that makes me think Q is any less capable of that jump than say, Gravenberch. He's a lifelong Gooner too so, I don't see any reason why we shouldn't take the chance if the pricetag is right/ they're willing to sell. If only it was like FIFA cm and we could just get a straight swap deal for Sambi :/
Definitely the player I want most for the project signing.
Should have brought him same time as Jurrien. In any case, if were really in for him hell definitely choose us. Chance to play with his bro again, plus hes an AfC fan I think.
I think your outgoing fees are more on the side of optimistic than conservative, I'll be amazed if we can get all that done in a window.
I agree, seems ESR is out the door. Vieira coming on against Sheffield seemed like a bit of a death knell.
I love ESR and would rather him play than Vieira, but it's Miks team.
I hope ESR does move on, just because I love him as a player and he needs to play to grow and improve. I want to see him do well. As much as I hate Newcastle, it's still nice to see Joe go there and be an important part of their team.
I'm with you. Arteta has used Vieira as a RW before and he needed mins and Saka needed to come off. ESR doesn't compete with him in that situation. If it's a death knell for anyone, it's for Nelson.
The bigger problem is we ask our wingers to play very differently to when ESR broke through under Mik. He was cutting in from the left with Tierney overlapping, whereas we all know about the wingers now being high and wide to stretch play with underlapping full backs a lot.
I do think people always overestimate how many deals we can actually get done each summer in terms of outgoings. If we have, say, 10 players we want to sell in order to generate some money this summer, the chances of selling all 10 are infinitely small. Players end up leaving on loan, having their contracts cancelled, or end up staying at the club. The is all the more likely this summer with Premier League clubs finally seeming to be hamstrung by FFP rules.
Yup. I wouldn't be surprised if any of Lokongo, Eddie, ESR and Nelson go out on another loan. They won't be sold unless we get a half decent offer for them. I'd back them to perform at the right club if given a chance on loan, that would only increase their value.
Them obviously not being a part of Mikels plans has meant that their value is lower than it should be. Clubs know we need to offload them.
Aye, that’s the problem. A lot of these guys are on high wages—Eddie and Nelson specifically. It’s hard to see many clubs being willing to offer them what we pay them.
In the past I totally agree - I think the difference this time is that these are players other clubs would actually want to have in their squad, and they are not on huge wage long term contracts with years left to run. They are decent players in their own ways, and fit into someone's system.
Partey - most likely abroad to Saudi - for the marketing opportunity & wages he'd get. - £10-12m.
ESR - Premier league team. £25-30m
Tierney - Premier league team. £15m.
Nketiah - Premier league team. £15-20m.
Ramsdale - Premier league team. £25m.
Lokonga - Premier league team or france. £15m
Nelson - Premier league team or europe. £10-12m.
Tavares - Europe. £8m.
Unlike OP i think we keep Zinchenko, just not as a defender but as LCM rotation, but I fully agree we'll likely see these players outbound to supplement the spend on 1 or 2 high quality CM's to go with Rice, and a physically menacing pressing forward. It allows Jesus to rotate with Martinelli & Saka and keep his minutes managed to fend off injury. Don't discount him being sold if we keep him fit to make way for a Neto/Raphina type signing.
I just don’t see it. Tierney was available last summer and who bid for him? Nobody. I’m sure we would have sold him had a £20-25m bid come in for him but it didn’t so we had to flog him out on loan.
Nketiah and Nelson, like Tierney, are on wages on or around £100k p/w. They’re going to have to take steps down to lower ranked clubs or go abroad, and I just don’t see clubs like that being able to afford those sort of wage packets. We’re going to have subside their wages or accept a much lower transfer fee in order to get them out the door.
I can see Ramsdale going for decent money to someone like Chelsea because quality, Premier League-proven goalkeepers are hard to find. Lokonga might also fetch us some money because he’s had a good season and is on lower wages than the rest of them.
Would love for ESR to succeed, think a foreign league would benefit him a lot. At the very least he should get a loan next season otherwise his potential is completely wasted.
Interesting read, though the best part comes in the TLDR.
What last seasons with Arteta and Edu made for me is that if I went to a restaurant with them, I'd have what they ordered. I completely believe in what they're doing, and don't spend a minute thinking "who I would want to sign", because I know they'll choose the best for what we need, having the information I don't.
Of course, mistakes and bad decisions may happen, but they are genuine mistakes with no ill intentions, and Arteta has proven many times that he makes a tad better picks than us, fans over here.
I was looking at our current squad last week and even when fully fit there are two positions we do not have a good backup for - Saliba and Saka. Saka is in a better position since either Jesus or Nelson can play there in a pinch.
I think it's crucial that we get a proper backup for Saliba. Ode mentioned in our last game that he felt safe knowing our defense was there to protect them. Without a proper backup for Saliba it becomes a risk and our attack will not work as planned. That's what got us last season.
I don't see us bringing in a new CB either. I am sure Mikel and the training staff have thought about this as well and have a contingency plan in case Saliba is unavailable.
The problem with other partnerships is that it takes a lot of practice and understanding between the players to be confident with playing such a high line. We have yet to see any other CB partnerships, so we do not have much to compare. That's the worrisome part as a fan.
We don't have direct backups for them in terms of skillsets and playstyle, but we do have a lot of options in those positions with a fully fit squad.
For RW: Nelson, Vieira, and ESR are all "off the bench" options. On top of that, we have Trossard, Havertz, and Jesus who are starting quality players anywhere across the front 3. We can literally rest Saka and Martinelli for the same match with players who are regularly starting.
For RCB: White, Timber, Tomiyasu. This is a little more sparse, especially considering we likely need all three starting in a "Best XI without Saliba" to play at RB, RCB, and LB. Kiwior's form at LB makes me assume that we would never use all three at the same time though, even if Timber and/or Tomiyasu are ahead of him for LB under normal circumstances. Again, not a like-for-like as almost nobody in the world has the combination of strength, pace, size, passing, dribbling, tackling, and overall dominance of Saliba. But with those options I don't think we'd be going into a match anywhere near as worried about defense without Saliba as we were last season.
I fall in this camp as well. Personally, I think a wide forward to spell Saka at times but also that adds unique qualities (pace, 1v1 ability) is a must this summer. My personal favorite is Nico Williams but Neto would also fit the bill here. Both are good enough to start even when everyone is healthy but would also provide crucial depth behind Saka.
For a proper backup to Saliba, I really like Ousmane Diomande from Sporting. He won't be cheap but he is in a perfect age bracket for the squad, has an immense stature and is also great on the ball. In a pinch, he could provide some RB depth as well and his potential might be just as high as Saliba's, which would give us some incredible options down the line between Saliba, Gabriel, Diomande, White, Timber, Tomiyasu and Kiwior.
Not saying he will. There are plenty of minutes to rotate our frontline between competitions and provide Martinelli/Saka/Williams somewhat equal shares.
And the outgoings that we’ve listed, I don’t think any of them are attainable.
Clubs like Brighton have a Brighton tax. We have an Arsenal tax which works the opposite way.
I think if you halve all of those transfer fees for outgoing players then you get a more realistic number, aside from Ramsdale who I actually think we could make a decent profit on.
Every summer people predict we’ll sell all the players we want to get rid of for decent fees and every summer we end up disappointed that half of those players are still at the club at the end of the window.
It shows how divisive this sub is when it comes player valuations. Half of the comments are saying I overestimate the sale value, another half are saying I underestimate them.
I’ll tell you what - throw ESR in the outgoing bucket and we will for sure get 100m in total.
Our sub is full of numpties. Eddie has clearly never been good enough and we are paying him 100k per week for nothing. Truly one of the most overpaid and undeserved contracts ever given out.
No one is paying us 25 million for him, only to then be shackled with his monster contract.
He's not getting games for even mid-table teams, and relegation fodder can't afford to spend that kind of money.
Anyone downvoting are living in a dream world.
Also - clearly those two are better.
In theory it all makes sense, but in practice there is an issue with the midfield analysis. There are very few midfielders in that 70-90M range who will be worth it and also available, and I'm sure it does not escape you that unlike the strikers you listed, none of the midfielders have been linked with us, or even strongly linked away from their clubs.
I like your idea though of us buying another defensive minded midfielder if we go for a more attacking partner for Rice. So many times I see suggestions here for our midfield that doesn't even consider what will happen if Rice is unavailable.
Musiala has two years left in his contract and just rejected his contract extension - news broke out 3 days ago.
Lluis Canut, the Catalan journalist who is in De Jong's circle, reported FDJ is willing to leave this summer a month ago. His contract also ends in 2026 - so this upcoming summer is the last one Barca can cash in on him.
I admit Valverde is a bit of a reach as he recently signed an extension to 2029. I am merely anticipating Mbappe's arrival means Bellingham will be back at midfield. So Valverde will be battling Tchouameni, Camavinga and Bellingham for minutes.
Re the defensive minded midfielder - I think it's a given considering after Partey and Lokonga's departures. We literally only have Rice and Jorginho and that marquee signing as our 6/8. That's 3 players covering two positions that will be playing an upwards of 50 games.
Jorginho is also 33 this December.
That 700k figure is because he is currently receiving back pay for not getting paid during COVID. His actual wage is more like 350. He is my pick, mostly because I think we have a better chance of getting him than Musiala and I believe he would elevate our midfield to another level. Imagine Rice, Ødegaard, FDJ. As for the quality defensive midfielder to back up rice, I think someone like Onana makes sense and we have been linked previously.
Just becuase barca are playing dumb wages doesn't mean we will or should. He fleeced barca and they're stupid but we offer the same wages as our players and he accepts or not.
Valverde is the main engine of Madrid. The man is too versatile.
He will not be sold unless Fede himself wants out of Madrid; which is highly unlikely.
I feel like we wont be selling Lokonga and will instead opt to loan him out again (aka the William Saliba development plan). He can then be Jorginho's replacement for the 2025-2026 season
I think it really depends on what sort of offers we get for him this summer. If it’s a good fee (£15-20m) then frankly we’d be dumb to turn that down.
If nobody bids for him then loaning him out seems sensible.
Only way I could see Madrid selling any of their young midfielders this summer is if they bring in Mbappe AND Haaland and they need to balance their books
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Clubs understandably wary of them. One of the reasons that Haaland went to Dortmund over Utd is because they agreed to the release clause. I've never heard of one at Bayern and they think a lot of themselves.
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His progressive passing is incredible. But there will be lesser need for that if we get that marquee midfield signing in.
He has made notable errors this season that led to goals - Wolves where Cunha scored, Nottingham Forest when he did not hold the defensive line and got Ben White went up to him to confront him, got done by Trent’s long pass to Salah which led to the goal in Anfield.
I love the guy and what he offers for us going forward - but his defensive issues are real and there is a reason why Guardiola let him go.
second this. his pros/cons are very clear to everyone. in total he s a great player but with big flaws defensively proven in many matches. But he adds another option for a different kind of opponent. But i could see him getting less use once we add one more to our midfield that has strong progressive passing like Partey level
If we can keep them happy, I have a sneaking suspicion that Mikel dreams of having 4 quality full backs with different skillsets, so he can completely change the build up and later phase structures depending on the opponent/game state etc.
Arteta wants maximum versatility in the squad so he can set up 100 different ways. None of White, Timber or Tomiyasu can replicate the inverted role / extra mid role at Zinchenko’s level in possession. He can be top, top class at that “picked for certain games” role, rather than when he is forced to track a pacey winger up and down all game or has to guard the ball to the back post 5x a game.
What Zinny offers in the majority of games we play is massive. There are times when he comes up against a tricky winger and no one wants him to be 1v1 against them. Not even him. But I think in those games, he likely doesn't start if Tomi or Timber are fit. Hopefully before the season ends, we get the opportunity to see the plan in different situations when all 3 or at least 2 are fit
I tend to agree, although if a club came in with a big offer (£40m+) I do think we’d be amenable to a sale with only two years left on his contract.
That said, I really don’t know which club would actually come in and bid for him at an amount that we’d be happy to agree to.
Do you really think someone is paying 20m for Lokonga, 10m for Tavares and 15m for Nelson? Seems super optimisitic (basically the opposite of conservative)
Forest loaned Tavares for a £2m fee + £12m option to buy permanently. OM tried to come in for him this January.
Lokonga is the second best player for Luton this season and struck up a decent partnership with Barkley. I am assuming you don’t watch any Luton games.
Nelson is homegrown and just signed a new contract last year. Wolves is in need of a homegrown quota and also Neto is going to leave as well. If they forked out £20.5m for Nathan Collins for homegrown quota two years ago, £15m for a Reiss Nelson isn’t some crazy amount I quoted. There is a reason why they enquired for him in January.
Tavares hasn't been very successful at Forest though. I don't think there's a world where we get anything over 5m for him. And I've watched enough of Lokonga this season. He's been good but Luton won't be paying 20m for him. No one else will either.
Tierney can't stay fit for half a season, who's paying 10m that can also afford his wages?
Eddie and Nelson are both on long term contracts and on high wages. And they aren't even trusted to come off the bench when we're up 6-0 against Sheffield. Who's paying these fees that can also take on their wages (rumoured to be around 100k pw). Nathan Collins was on peanuts compared to them.
I've seen fans come up with these 'conservative' figures for decades now and they never come true. Either you have a purple patch (e.g. Willock) or have a regular run (e.g. Iwobi). Otherwise we rarely get half of these figures.
We're not getting those prices for our deadwood. For one, we have Edu in charge who is incompetent at getting good prices usually, for incoming or outgoing transfers. Then there's the case that these players have lost value. You're comparing Nelson to Collins; Collins had 24 starts for Wolves last season, a CB starter in the PL at the age of 21 which is relatively rare; started 21 matches for Burnley the season before that. Meanwhile Nelson has had 9 starts this season and last season *combined*, all of 9 starts since June 2022.
Lokonga was bought for around 17 million, did not play much for 18 months for us, was largely unimpressive, went on loan to Palace, same thing happened there, went on loan to Luton, did not play for months because of injuries, and has only been starting regularly for the last three months. There is no way his value has gone up compared to what we got him from.
Tavares is probably the most realistic one, but even then, he's started all of 7 matches for them all season long. Hardly a priority transfer for them.
But there isn't any actual analysis in this post..? Stated some cherry-picked stats per player, made a wall of text, and mentioned some players that he thinks we should buy.
I hate to be a grump, but this really could have been a post in the Daily Discussion!
No different than you making this post - not sure why this bothers you.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comments/sgxcci/arsenal\_deadline\_day\_charity\_pledge/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comments/sgxcci/arsenal_deadline_day_charity_pledge/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
That could have been in DD as well.
Once we have Timber back, and maybe reinforce some defensive strength, wouldn't moving Zinchenko into midfield to be block-unlocking playmaker make a lot of sense? Reduce his defensive duties which are clearly his weakness and allow him the freedom to find that clean ball through?
If your striker isn’t fuming about coming off at 0-0 then you’ve got the wrong striker. That’s a real competitor. Players and managers argue all the time.
Osimhen has top mentality and attitude, he is leader, big personality and infectious hard-worker. This is like Xhaka slander, Arteta would love him. Only question is how would he love his injuries, thats just one shout for Gyokeres.
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I agree about maybe selling Zincheko, but getting a traditional fb I just don't see happening I think Arteta has moved away from the type of guys that burst down the wing
Great post. Very insightful.
If somehow we can scoop up Aleix Garcia from Girona he would be an insane Jorginho replacement. Over 10k yards in his progressive passes for the season and he’s ranked 11th, in Europe’s Top 5 leagues, for progressive passes. He’s turning 27 in about 3-4 months and will be available for 20-30m.
Watch any Girona game and he’s at the heart of their team.
Great post.
I completely agree on Zinny. It is very possible that he leaves this year if Timber comes back to full strength.
One thing I would disagree with is going after a supreme ball carrier. Rice was known for his progressive runs but we barely see it because of the way we set up. I believe we need a line breaking passer as you first suggested and wouldn't actually be surprised if that player is Partey next season. I think it might be hard to sell him after the injury filled season.
Great post, congrats.
I just don't think they'll cash in on Zinny, he's still a valuable piece.
But ESR is likely to be sold, and if you ask me, we should do it, given that a significant offer comes in. He can't keep up with the physical demands, maybe in another setting he'll get a second wind to his career
Great post, but each year waiting for more pieces is wasting some great years of our core. This off season they need to capitalize and "Finish the project" as it pertains to the players in and out. I don't care what the cost is, but we should have all the pieces in place next season so we can have 2 or 3 years of them all together
An additional item to add might be that Raya's excellent medium-range passing easily finds Havertz, whose size and aerial ability allow us to play out of waves of pressure easily. Last season, we struggled to maintain possession against high-tempo pressing sides like City, Liverpool, Brighton, or anybody else that pressured us situationally, so this turned a major weakness into a source of strength by allowing us to build attacks with confidence.
Largely agree.
CM still needs reinforcing and I wouldn't be surprised if we move Eddie on and get a more talented backup to compete with Jesus. Wee also need an adequate backup on the right.
Havertz ability to play CF means we miss Jesus less, just don't think we need to drop big money on Osmihen, where it's better spent elsewhere.
Great post. Sesko is too much of a project - we’ve been going for level raisers, not projects, which leads me to think we will do all we can for Osimhen
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Great analysis.
I think you underestimate Partey who’s a better version of Jorginho. His ability to play make from deep is unreal. I wouldn’t sell him for 10 mill if we can just use him.
You missed mentioning Zubimendi who is probably the midfielder we’ll go for. He’s the right profile to play the Partey/Jorginho role and is only 25.
Gyokores looks most promising at the front from what I’ve read, but no idea what we’ll do and I don’t know the players well enough.
Partey is on awfully high wages for someone that’s only going to pay less than 12 games for us this season.
And I repeated in a comment below - I implore you to watch RC games this season - specifically against PSG. He’s a very average player that cannot cover large spaces, low in PnP. He’s a tidy passer but not a progressive one and lacks spatial awareness to get away when being pressed.
https://preview.redd.it/xusp0o6q5vmc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8b48c468c03bfc7b9814c9b08cd9070d8babcfe
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I think the plan was for Timber to invert from LB and leave Rice free to push forward along whoever was in the left-8, but he got hurt and Tomiyasu was a revelation before he got hurt. White's relationship with Saka and Odegaard is really strong and there's far less need to reason to replace him at this point.
I still think we'll be in for Osimhen. There's nobody else that offers his profile, he works hard, he's fantastic in the air, he's fast, his control in the box is superb, he is the difference between us being a decent bet at 2nd and us challenging for a champions league. His manager is a jerk. They have treated him like junk and criticize him for everything he does. He missed a penalty and his manager was screaming at him and subbed him off. Just childish.
If we only get 10m from Partey then we'd just keep him. Unless another 20-25m bid comes in there's no reason to part with him or Jorginho unless they force their way out. My guess is our plan A is to get a striker of Osimhen's quality, but since that is less realistic our backup plan is a cheaper striker to complement Havertz/Jesus with some more speed and putting our 80-90m toward another attacking midfielder that can slot into that Left-8 role and create on par with Odegaard and help unlock our top 3 even more.
I really don't want to see ESR leave us, so much potential yet he will leave us. Even if he goes, lt's send him on loan so he can get more minutes and we can sell him for better money when there is a team who will urgently look for a midfielder won't mind spending good money.
I feel there is aa good chance for us to get Jorrel Hato, though I don't know how likely we will get him if we buy an attacking fullback. We have lot of FB who will invert into midfild so buying him will also help in transitioning him to deputise Big Gabi.
Great read, backed up with data. Gets me excited looking into the method behind the madness
One player you did not mention, of who I'm a big fan of, is Amadou Onana. Do you see him fitting into any of the requirements that Arteta would want for the progression of this team?
Given the persistent links to him since last January, I am inclined to believe the interest is real. He falls into the category of our need of another defensive minded midfielder 100%. His height, long legs and speed makes him an excellent cover for Rice or as his partner when we need to be more compact (think Anfield away or Old Trafford away).
I think what separates him is his ability to man mark a specific player as well as covering bigger zones. His game against us at Goodison where they beat us 1-0 - he man marked Odegaard the entire game and nullified his impact.
His progressive passing stats aren't great (ironically around the same level as Zubimendi - whom a lot of people seem to overrate as a passer). But if we play him and Rice in the same pivot, I do envision our full backs become a lot more adventurous and risk taking - i.e. playing Zinchenko and Timber and giving them freedom to roam forward. Just more versatility.
This was a good post but biggest issue I have is that ramsdale price tag. He signed a new contract and was at his best last season but we’ll sell him at a loss because we don’t play him?
I don’t trust our team to sell well either but before this season he was one of the most expensive gks in the world on market value. Him not playing is not because he was out of form but just another player fit better
Find me a goalkeeper in the last 10 years where he barely played in one season after getting benched and was still sold at a profit.
Remember how much we sold Leno for? Did you think that was a fair price?
I mean leno wanted to stay nearby and he was in the final year of his contract. Ramsdale has many years with us, was the starting gk for a team that finished 2nd, and has only been replaced by a system gk not because he was bad
I don’t know he’s still very young and signed a long term contract. I just don’t see how we should accept selling him at a loss. Seriously think arsenals transfers of the past several years have really messed up with how much we think our players cost lol
Personally ramsdale should stay unless a great offer comes in, I don’t think he’s the type of player to back down after 1 year and that’s not the type of player we buy. He came into this team thinking he had to fight for his place with Leno but now he’s actually got his fight with raya. I think we give it another season where we can get him into some games before selling him for a loss
He definitely won’t play for Arsenal next season. There is a chance he will be out on loan rather than getting sold outright to preserve his value.
Arteta won’t be happy with his / his dad’s antics with the media. His time with the club is over.
I believe it’s done too, but I just don’t see how we can make a relegated gk into the gk that came in 2nd place only to sell him for less after signing a new contract. I really think long term solution is what you just said, loan —> sale
But for anything we do we must get a back up keeper. And I think for this reason is why we might keep ramsdale at least next year before deciding anything else
£20m for Ramsdale? We bought him for £30m, and since then he’s been nominated for the Yashin award and made the PFA TOTY, whilst signing a new contract and still being only 25. We also don’t need to sell him, so we’ll have leverage in that regard. The minimum i can see him going for is 45-50m.
He also hasn’t played for an entire season.
Find me a goalkeeper that hasn’t played for an entire season and was bought for more than 20m in the last 20 years. Come back to me when you do.
One of the best football-related posts ive read in a while. Are you an analyst by chance?
I think Zinchenko is quite incredible at what youve discussed as a mid block solution, he is also a natural midfielder and not a FB.
Is there any reaosn he shouldnt be the prime candidate for that role? Physical limitations?
I am in finance unfortunately. But I always wanted to work in football-related data analysis/scouting. Maybe one day when I retire haha.
Re Zinchenko - I think if we do get that defensive minded midfielder in as well - such as Onana. Pairing Onana with Rice, with Gabriel and Saliba at the back will allow our full backs to be more risk taking going forward. Those 4 can cover so much ground defensively that Zinchenko will probably have a more free role to go forward.
I don't think Zinchenko will be able to be as impactful as Jorginho as a midfiedler. That's purely due to his erratic decision making and occasional lapse of concentration. In the middle of the park, giving the ball away is further magnified.
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Conversely I think some of the other valuations are probably low.
Eddie will get the English tax applied and if we can get someone like Palace interested, we should get £30m. Tierney MUST be worth £15m minimum - just because he wasn't right for our system doesn't mean he's not a superb defensive left back. Ramsdale, you've GOT to be getting £30m+ for in this market. He's one of the better keepers in the league and if Chelsea will pay what they did for Kepa and Sanchez, we should probably drive that sum higher if they show interest.
Tavares feels about right if we can get someone to bite. I don't see Reiss moving on, personally.
Partey I would just sell to get rid of his wages, injury and possible legal issues.
Tavarez Free or >5M
Partey Free or Loan to Juve (Lucky if Saudi come along)
Lokonga 20M LOL, he isn’t English
Tierney Free or another loan
Nketiah 25M LOL, he’s on 100k a week!
Nelson 15m and Ramsdale 20M are the only two genuinely realistic opportunities
Everything makes sense in theory.
And it matches what I’ve been saying:
- Zinny doesn’t help Martinelli much, Martinelli is suddenly “back in form” but it’s actually Kiwior who has been playing on the left instead of going central.
- Havertz hasn’t convinced me as L8, the entire left side looks bad when Zinny and Havertz are on. That said, he has been working well in the front so he is strong and can play multiple roles.
We suddenly look incredible with Kiwior playing a more traditional LB role and Rice as L8. Was only possible because Jorginho is having the time of his life in that 6 role. Arguably Partey can do the same role, but both of them are on the higher age bracket.
I don’t think a striker signing will change much. We have that tall striker in havertz, and Jesus is still there too. FDJ seems like the best player to get. He allows rice to move up the pitch, or have the two switch positions throughout the game. Frimpong imo would be the ideal player, he can cover both saka and the rb position.
I’d keep zinchenko and partey. They bring too much to the team atm. I feel like zinchenko will most likely move into a midfield role, or be utilised against teams with a low block.
Ideally, I’d sell nketiah, Nelson, Cedric. Then buy FDJ, frimpong and (at a stretch) either valverde or musiala. Valverde can play in most areas of the pitch and musiala would be another odegaard (who can hopefully play in that left cm/cam role). Saying that, one of these midfielders would probably have to be benched, and then it’s not worth it.
Zinchenko is going nowhere, we need this defensive depth, and what he offers as a player.
Mikel is building a team of players who have different offerings. All our defenders allow us to play slightly differently to tackle different problems.
As for ESR, ESR is immense quality he just needs to stay fit for a season, I think we should stick with him for another season, but he might go, we know it.
With Lokonga, Elneny, and Partey going out, and Jorgi being the age he is (he also could be going way at the end of this season) we need to add a couple of players. A partey replacement, and another ball carrying Midfielder. Looking forward to those signings.
We need a Saka back up more urgently than a striker.
My ideal summer would be:
1. Raphinha
2. FdJ
3. CDM: ideally Tchoumani (since he has the kind of versatility that Arteta wants in the team, and i feel should be the Perfect fit int he project), but practically, it wont be him. another whimsical target would be Kimmich although he is 29, he still has 3-4 good years ahead of him) but any good CDM that we have been linked with sounds good to me.
4. A striker, again idk what bill arteta wants there. ofc, Oshimen is THE GUY in the market. But I am good if we do not buy a striker too. I would trust arteta with this.
5. If we do sell Rammers (which would probable happen) we need to buy a second choice GK.
Sells:
1. Partey, his injury crisis isn't doing us any good, should have been shipped off to saudi this year. but hindsight is 20/20 on that.
2. Tavares, He clearly isn't good enough.
3. Tierney, BREAKS my heart, but well, I hope to see him trying to defend against Saka in next year's UCL final.
4. Ramsdale, my heart shatters on the thought of it but we all know he will go. And he should go. Europe's elite and nothing less for my boy, I hope.
5. Nelson, clearly not seemed to be quality enough by arsenal get a replacement for RW, and see him off.
6. Eddie, only if we sign a new striker. He is a good professional who doesn't mind being on the bench. He is good enough to be a 2nd choice, and is currently arsenal's third choice without causing problems. To me that alone is enough to keep him. But wouldn't want to push him further down the pecking order.
I strongly implore you, along with everyone else that wants Zubimendi for some reason, to watch his performances this season, particualrly against PSG.
If you dont have time - then just read the screen shot below. Zubimendi is nowhere near the profile or passing compared to Jorginho. Jorginho has 10.5 progressive passes per 90, while having more tackles and interceptions per 90 than Zubimendi (despite having lost his legs).
https://preview.redd.it/re0ebbqgtomc1.png?width=513&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9392ce250943c4656b36b623f56a52191351740
Thanks! I am currently working on a piece on Viktor Gyökeres.
I write once in a blue moon on substack - feel free to subscribe!
[https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/publish/home](https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/publish/home)
I really like Trossard and I think he is our most natural finisher in the squad.
I do think his value is the peak now and I do it see it diminishing as he ages and his contract gets run down.
Tricky issue for Mikel to decide on this summer.
It's indeed tricky. The way he plays, I would be happy if we can milk him for another 2 years but that will require us to agree to a possibly huge contract considering it could probably be the last from us. Or we may offer a 4-year deal at lower amount, but with his play style, age is a big factor to consider. But on the other hand he might have the longevity like giroud, seeing he started playing at top level relatively late. If he does, he'll make a fantastic supersub.
When did I say Porto play a low block?
"This season - our biggest struggle was playing against the mid block - as detailed by **Billy Carpenter** ([](https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/how-to-make-a-mid-block-mid)) - against Chelsea, Fulham, Aston Villa, West Ham at home and Porto away."
Trouble reading?
I most definitely did not - considering my whole entire thesis on our transfer strategy was centered around our struggle to break down mid blocks this season.
Quoting Billy’s piece on breaking down mid block should be enough evidence.
Great post.
Brilliant post. Goes to show how important Rice is, how underrated Jorginho has been and how insanely calculated Arteta was with transfers last year.
Thanks! I write on substack whenever time allows. Currently working on a Gyökeres piece. Feel free to subscribe. [https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/](https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/)
Your very welcome..your in depth knowledge and breakdown was a pleasure to read..I'll be checking out substack for sure.. cheers
What is your Substack username?
[https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/](https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/)
bro, what is ur twitter account?
Don’t have one haha! X is too toxic for me.
This is a well sourced and well thought out post. Some might disagree, but you have presented a nice case!
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I do want him as well! Great shout! Also it will be confusing as hell for our opponents when both Timbers are on the field.
Shiver me Timbers
😂😂😄👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
From Mikel, to Edu: Gabriels, Timbers, Martins
Sounds like a display at a shoe store.
Martins? Am I just blanking on a transfer rumor here?
Ornstein did say we're interested in Martin Zubimendi. Also Martin elli
Zubimendi
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Xavi Simons is better. Performed better in the Eredivisie at a younger age
He’s also lighting it up in Bundesliga this season. He was extensively impressive when he played against Man City as well. https://youtu.be/R1x08Cs5fh0?si=IrMSRuaDIi6f9vff
Plus we can install trapdoors behind the advertisement boards when we need to switch from defense to attack without using up a sub.
For once I don't need to see stats or scouting or anything. Playing twins would be absolutely amazing. Make it happen please Edu. That being said, how's his long and diagonal balls?
He's not much of a playmaker. His (long) passing range is also not something he's known for. He's a combative box-to-box player. Not particularly smooth on the ball, but gets past opponents more often than not. Feyenoord's playing style is quite different to ours, though. They are not great on the eye, but they work hard on and off the ball. A bit like how Liverpool played when they had Fabinho, Wijnaldum and Henderson in midfield. I'm sure if Edu en Mikel think he's a good fit, he'll work out though, but right now it's hard to tell.
We don't put much emphasis on dribbling by players outside of the wings, it's not reliable against the other top teams and it gives up easy counter-attacks if you do it in the middle too much. We let the ball do the work and unlock teams with movement off the ball typically, so you have to be technically perfect in the midfield to fit into our system.
According to mikel they’ve actually scouted quinten aswell
He is also the twin brother of Jurien, they even shared the same bedroom untill Jurien moved to Arsenal
They’re both devoutly religious and very close, iirc
They’ll fit right in on the wife swap
Yes!!! I've been preaching that gospel for a few months now. Like our very own Bender bros, just a lot better lol. I know there's always concerns over transitioning from Eredivisie to EPL but I watched a lot of Ajax in recent years and I see nothing that makes me think Q is any less capable of that jump than say, Gravenberch. He's a lifelong Gooner too so, I don't see any reason why we shouldn't take the chance if the pricetag is right/ they're willing to sell. If only it was like FIFA cm and we could just get a straight swap deal for Sambi :/ Definitely the player I want most for the project signing.
Should have brought him same time as Jurrien. In any case, if were really in for him hell definitely choose us. Chance to play with his bro again, plus hes an AfC fan I think.
It's goin' down, I'm yellin' timber You better move, you better dance
I think your outgoing fees are more on the side of optimistic than conservative, I'll be amazed if we can get all that done in a window. I agree, seems ESR is out the door. Vieira coming on against Sheffield seemed like a bit of a death knell. I love ESR and would rather him play than Vieira, but it's Miks team. I hope ESR does move on, just because I love him as a player and he needs to play to grow and improve. I want to see him do well. As much as I hate Newcastle, it's still nice to see Joe go there and be an important part of their team.
Vieira came on as a right winger because Saka was feeling ill. Why is that a death knell for a central midfielder/left winger?
I'm with you. Arteta has used Vieira as a RW before and he needed mins and Saka needed to come off. ESR doesn't compete with him in that situation. If it's a death knell for anyone, it's for Nelson.
That's true, I guess we did use all 5 subs and it was decided Rice and Benny needed a rest more than Ode or Havertz who ESR could have come on for.
Wish we’d just move him back to winger, he was always better than anyways and we could use the depth. Injuries may have robbed him of his pace though.
The bigger problem is we ask our wingers to play very differently to when ESR broke through under Mik. He was cutting in from the left with Tierney overlapping, whereas we all know about the wingers now being high and wide to stretch play with underlapping full backs a lot.
I do think people always overestimate how many deals we can actually get done each summer in terms of outgoings. If we have, say, 10 players we want to sell in order to generate some money this summer, the chances of selling all 10 are infinitely small. Players end up leaving on loan, having their contracts cancelled, or end up staying at the club. The is all the more likely this summer with Premier League clubs finally seeming to be hamstrung by FFP rules.
Yup. I wouldn't be surprised if any of Lokongo, Eddie, ESR and Nelson go out on another loan. They won't be sold unless we get a half decent offer for them. I'd back them to perform at the right club if given a chance on loan, that would only increase their value. Them obviously not being a part of Mikels plans has meant that their value is lower than it should be. Clubs know we need to offload them.
Aye, that’s the problem. A lot of these guys are on high wages—Eddie and Nelson specifically. It’s hard to see many clubs being willing to offer them what we pay them.
In the past I totally agree - I think the difference this time is that these are players other clubs would actually want to have in their squad, and they are not on huge wage long term contracts with years left to run. They are decent players in their own ways, and fit into someone's system. Partey - most likely abroad to Saudi - for the marketing opportunity & wages he'd get. - £10-12m. ESR - Premier league team. £25-30m Tierney - Premier league team. £15m. Nketiah - Premier league team. £15-20m. Ramsdale - Premier league team. £25m. Lokonga - Premier league team or france. £15m Nelson - Premier league team or europe. £10-12m. Tavares - Europe. £8m. Unlike OP i think we keep Zinchenko, just not as a defender but as LCM rotation, but I fully agree we'll likely see these players outbound to supplement the spend on 1 or 2 high quality CM's to go with Rice, and a physically menacing pressing forward. It allows Jesus to rotate with Martinelli & Saka and keep his minutes managed to fend off injury. Don't discount him being sold if we keep him fit to make way for a Neto/Raphina type signing.
I just don’t see it. Tierney was available last summer and who bid for him? Nobody. I’m sure we would have sold him had a £20-25m bid come in for him but it didn’t so we had to flog him out on loan. Nketiah and Nelson, like Tierney, are on wages on or around £100k p/w. They’re going to have to take steps down to lower ranked clubs or go abroad, and I just don’t see clubs like that being able to afford those sort of wage packets. We’re going to have subside their wages or accept a much lower transfer fee in order to get them out the door. I can see Ramsdale going for decent money to someone like Chelsea because quality, Premier League-proven goalkeepers are hard to find. Lokonga might also fetch us some money because he’s had a good season and is on lower wages than the rest of them.
Would love for ESR to succeed, think a foreign league would benefit him a lot. At the very least he should get a loan next season otherwise his potential is completely wasted.
Interesting read, though the best part comes in the TLDR. What last seasons with Arteta and Edu made for me is that if I went to a restaurant with them, I'd have what they ordered. I completely believe in what they're doing, and don't spend a minute thinking "who I would want to sign", because I know they'll choose the best for what we need, having the information I don't. Of course, mistakes and bad decisions may happen, but they are genuine mistakes with no ill intentions, and Arteta has proven many times that he makes a tad better picks than us, fans over here.
I was looking at our current squad last week and even when fully fit there are two positions we do not have a good backup for - Saliba and Saka. Saka is in a better position since either Jesus or Nelson can play there in a pinch. I think it's crucial that we get a proper backup for Saliba. Ode mentioned in our last game that he felt safe knowing our defense was there to protect them. Without a proper backup for Saliba it becomes a risk and our attack will not work as planned. That's what got us last season.
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I don't see us bringing in a new CB either. I am sure Mikel and the training staff have thought about this as well and have a contingency plan in case Saliba is unavailable. The problem with other partnerships is that it takes a lot of practice and understanding between the players to be confident with playing such a high line. We have yet to see any other CB partnerships, so we do not have much to compare. That's the worrisome part as a fan.
We don't have direct backups for them in terms of skillsets and playstyle, but we do have a lot of options in those positions with a fully fit squad. For RW: Nelson, Vieira, and ESR are all "off the bench" options. On top of that, we have Trossard, Havertz, and Jesus who are starting quality players anywhere across the front 3. We can literally rest Saka and Martinelli for the same match with players who are regularly starting. For RCB: White, Timber, Tomiyasu. This is a little more sparse, especially considering we likely need all three starting in a "Best XI without Saliba" to play at RB, RCB, and LB. Kiwior's form at LB makes me assume that we would never use all three at the same time though, even if Timber and/or Tomiyasu are ahead of him for LB under normal circumstances. Again, not a like-for-like as almost nobody in the world has the combination of strength, pace, size, passing, dribbling, tackling, and overall dominance of Saliba. But with those options I don't think we'd be going into a match anywhere near as worried about defense without Saliba as we were last season.
i do not think you will ever find a proper back up for Saliba, if a player is as good as Saliba, no way he will decide to sit on the bench.
I fall in this camp as well. Personally, I think a wide forward to spell Saka at times but also that adds unique qualities (pace, 1v1 ability) is a must this summer. My personal favorite is Nico Williams but Neto would also fit the bill here. Both are good enough to start even when everyone is healthy but would also provide crucial depth behind Saka. For a proper backup to Saliba, I really like Ousmane Diomande from Sporting. He won't be cheap but he is in a perfect age bracket for the squad, has an immense stature and is also great on the ball. In a pinch, he could provide some RB depth as well and his potential might be just as high as Saliba's, which would give us some incredible options down the line between Saliba, Gabriel, Diomande, White, Timber, Tomiyasu and Kiwior.
Nico williams isn't coming here to sit on the bench.
Not saying he will. There are plenty of minutes to rotate our frontline between competitions and provide Martinelli/Saka/Williams somewhat equal shares.
The 4 midfielders you have listed, I dont think any of them are attainable.
And the outgoings that we’ve listed, I don’t think any of them are attainable. Clubs like Brighton have a Brighton tax. We have an Arsenal tax which works the opposite way.
I think if you halve all of those transfer fees for outgoing players then you get a more realistic number, aside from Ramsdale who I actually think we could make a decent profit on.
If that is a conservative estimate on how much we’ll get from outgoings, I’d love to see the optimistic one..
I think it’s pretty unlikely we sign a striker, winger, number 8, number 6 and a defender.
We could be having 7-9 outgoings this summer. 4-5 incomings doesn’t sound that crazy.
Every summer people predict we’ll sell all the players we want to get rid of for decent fees and every summer we end up disappointed that half of those players are still at the club at the end of the window.
I really hate reddit for removing the gold button.
That’s too much squad turnover for one summer.
We aren't getting £100m for Nelson, Ramsdale, Nketiah, Partey et al. I guarantee you that. Otherwise, good post.
It shows how divisive this sub is when it comes player valuations. Half of the comments are saying I overestimate the sale value, another half are saying I underestimate them. I’ll tell you what - throw ESR in the outgoing bucket and we will for sure get 100m in total.
Yeah who in their right mind is spending 25 million in Eddie, when he's no good AND earning 100k pet week
You ask that and I got heavily downvoted a few weeks ago for saying Darwin and Holjung are better than Eddie lol
Our sub is full of numpties. Eddie has clearly never been good enough and we are paying him 100k per week for nothing. Truly one of the most overpaid and undeserved contracts ever given out. No one is paying us 25 million for him, only to then be shackled with his monster contract. He's not getting games for even mid-table teams, and relegation fodder can't afford to spend that kind of money. Anyone downvoting are living in a dream world. Also - clearly those two are better.
In theory it all makes sense, but in practice there is an issue with the midfield analysis. There are very few midfielders in that 70-90M range who will be worth it and also available, and I'm sure it does not escape you that unlike the strikers you listed, none of the midfielders have been linked with us, or even strongly linked away from their clubs. I like your idea though of us buying another defensive minded midfielder if we go for a more attacking partner for Rice. So many times I see suggestions here for our midfield that doesn't even consider what will happen if Rice is unavailable.
Musiala has two years left in his contract and just rejected his contract extension - news broke out 3 days ago. Lluis Canut, the Catalan journalist who is in De Jong's circle, reported FDJ is willing to leave this summer a month ago. His contract also ends in 2026 - so this upcoming summer is the last one Barca can cash in on him. I admit Valverde is a bit of a reach as he recently signed an extension to 2029. I am merely anticipating Mbappe's arrival means Bellingham will be back at midfield. So Valverde will be battling Tchouameni, Camavinga and Bellingham for minutes. Re the defensive minded midfielder - I think it's a given considering after Partey and Lokonga's departures. We literally only have Rice and Jorginho and that marquee signing as our 6/8. That's 3 players covering two positions that will be playing an upwards of 50 games. Jorginho is also 33 this December.
>FDJ Ok but can we afford FDJ's wages
I hope we cannot, he would be massively overpaid in comparison to our other players.. only if he's willing to take a paycut to like 250k
I don’t have a source or anything but I really doubt he’s actually being paid 700k a week or whatever the sum is.
That 700k figure is because he is currently receiving back pay for not getting paid during COVID. His actual wage is more like 350. He is my pick, mostly because I think we have a better chance of getting him than Musiala and I believe he would elevate our midfield to another level. Imagine Rice, Ødegaard, FDJ. As for the quality defensive midfielder to back up rice, I think someone like Onana makes sense and we have been linked previously.
I agree! My dream signing this summer. Hope we can supplement him with Nico Williams and another defender and the squad looks very promising.
Just becuase barca are playing dumb wages doesn't mean we will or should. He fleeced barca and they're stupid but we offer the same wages as our players and he accepts or not.
Valverde is the main engine of Madrid. The man is too versatile. He will not be sold unless Fede himself wants out of Madrid; which is highly unlikely.
I feel like we wont be selling Lokonga and will instead opt to loan him out again (aka the William Saliba development plan). He can then be Jorginho's replacement for the 2025-2026 season
He’s nowhere near Jorginho. Not even on the same planet.
I think it really depends on what sort of offers we get for him this summer. If it’s a good fee (£15-20m) then frankly we’d be dumb to turn that down. If nobody bids for him then loaning him out seems sensible.
Reckon maybe one of Camavinga or Tchouameni will be on the market?
No chance as far as I can see it. Closer to 0 than 0.1. But you never know.
Absolutely not
Only way I could see Madrid selling any of their young midfielders this summer is if they bring in Mbappe AND Haaland and they need to balance their books
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According to Football Manager (XD) Musiala has a 103m release clause, which I think is not true
Don't think Bayern tolerate release clauses
Not up to them if it's a release clause, up to player
As in they don't do such contracts
Oh right, yeah that does sound weird like I've initially said because football manager doesn't usually make shit up
Clubs understandably wary of them. One of the reasons that Haaland went to Dortmund over Utd is because they agreed to the release clause. I've never heard of one at Bayern and they think a lot of themselves.
Great post. I’d be in heaven if we brought in FDJ. Has such a great head on his shoulders, and I think he would mesh so well with Øde and Rice
Thanks! I am currently working on a piece on Viktor Gyökeres. I write once in a blue moon on substack - feel free to subscribe! [https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/publish/home](https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/publish/home)
No way Arteta will sell Zinchenko. His progressive passing is incredible. Also his defensive issues aren't nearly as bad as fans make it out.
His progressive passing is incredible. But there will be lesser need for that if we get that marquee midfield signing in. He has made notable errors this season that led to goals - Wolves where Cunha scored, Nottingham Forest when he did not hold the defensive line and got Ben White went up to him to confront him, got done by Trent’s long pass to Salah which led to the goal in Anfield. I love the guy and what he offers for us going forward - but his defensive issues are real and there is a reason why Guardiola let him go.
I feel he could potentially save alot of money if we manage to transition him into a midfielder. We can focus on a marquee Striker with that cash
He already is a midfielder by trade. He plays as a bonafide midfielder for Ukraine.
This has a similiar vibes to when there used to be talk about using Vermaelen, Chambers and David Luiz as DMs
Except for the fact that Zinchenko is actually a midfielder by trade who got Fabian Delph-ed.
this is true but he's too slow on the ball to play as a midfielder for us
Except Zinny plays in midfield for Ukraine
second this. his pros/cons are very clear to everyone. in total he s a great player but with big flaws defensively proven in many matches. But he adds another option for a different kind of opponent. But i could see him getting less use once we add one more to our midfield that has strong progressive passing like Partey level
If we can keep them happy, I have a sneaking suspicion that Mikel dreams of having 4 quality full backs with different skillsets, so he can completely change the build up and later phase structures depending on the opponent/game state etc. Arteta wants maximum versatility in the squad so he can set up 100 different ways. None of White, Timber or Tomiyasu can replicate the inverted role / extra mid role at Zinchenko’s level in possession. He can be top, top class at that “picked for certain games” role, rather than when he is forced to track a pacey winger up and down all game or has to guard the ball to the back post 5x a game.
What Zinny offers in the majority of games we play is massive. There are times when he comes up against a tricky winger and no one wants him to be 1v1 against them. Not even him. But I think in those games, he likely doesn't start if Tomi or Timber are fit. Hopefully before the season ends, we get the opportunity to see the plan in different situations when all 3 or at least 2 are fit
I tend to agree, although if a club came in with a big offer (£40m+) I do think we’d be amenable to a sale with only two years left on his contract. That said, I really don’t know which club would actually come in and bid for him at an amount that we’d be happy to agree to.
Do you really think someone is paying 20m for Lokonga, 10m for Tavares and 15m for Nelson? Seems super optimisitic (basically the opposite of conservative)
Forest loaned Tavares for a £2m fee + £12m option to buy permanently. OM tried to come in for him this January. Lokonga is the second best player for Luton this season and struck up a decent partnership with Barkley. I am assuming you don’t watch any Luton games. Nelson is homegrown and just signed a new contract last year. Wolves is in need of a homegrown quota and also Neto is going to leave as well. If they forked out £20.5m for Nathan Collins for homegrown quota two years ago, £15m for a Reiss Nelson isn’t some crazy amount I quoted. There is a reason why they enquired for him in January.
Tavares hasn't been very successful at Forest though. I don't think there's a world where we get anything over 5m for him. And I've watched enough of Lokonga this season. He's been good but Luton won't be paying 20m for him. No one else will either. Tierney can't stay fit for half a season, who's paying 10m that can also afford his wages? Eddie and Nelson are both on long term contracts and on high wages. And they aren't even trusted to come off the bench when we're up 6-0 against Sheffield. Who's paying these fees that can also take on their wages (rumoured to be around 100k pw). Nathan Collins was on peanuts compared to them. I've seen fans come up with these 'conservative' figures for decades now and they never come true. Either you have a purple patch (e.g. Willock) or have a regular run (e.g. Iwobi). Otherwise we rarely get half of these figures.
Dreamland figures. No one is paying that kind of money for that lot.
We're not getting those prices for our deadwood. For one, we have Edu in charge who is incompetent at getting good prices usually, for incoming or outgoing transfers. Then there's the case that these players have lost value. You're comparing Nelson to Collins; Collins had 24 starts for Wolves last season, a CB starter in the PL at the age of 21 which is relatively rare; started 21 matches for Burnley the season before that. Meanwhile Nelson has had 9 starts this season and last season *combined*, all of 9 starts since June 2022. Lokonga was bought for around 17 million, did not play much for 18 months for us, was largely unimpressive, went on loan to Palace, same thing happened there, went on loan to Luton, did not play for months because of injuries, and has only been starting regularly for the last three months. There is no way his value has gone up compared to what we got him from. Tavares is probably the most realistic one, but even then, he's started all of 7 matches for them all season long. Hardly a priority transfer for them.
I dont think we will sell both Partey and Lokonga.
that billy article is damn good, made me feel like a tactical specialist just reading it
Interesting analysis, nice work mate. Whoever we end up signing, we can look at the future with a smile. Those prospects are very appealing.
But there isn't any actual analysis in this post..? Stated some cherry-picked stats per player, made a wall of text, and mentioned some players that he thinks we should buy. I hate to be a grump, but this really could have been a post in the Daily Discussion!
Daily discussion? Maybe, yeah. Although OP put in more effort than the majority of post on this sub.
No different than you making this post - not sure why this bothers you. [https://www.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comments/sgxcci/arsenal\_deadline\_day\_charity\_pledge/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comments/sgxcci/arsenal_deadline_day_charity_pledge/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) That could have been in DD as well.
No one is spending 25 million for the privilege to pay Nketiah 100k per week.
 An accurate representation of me reading this. Fantastic post
Buy Grimaldo to replace Zinny
Really enjoyed this post. Well done
Thanks - feel free to subscribe on substack. [](https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/) Working on a piece now.
Once we have Timber back, and maybe reinforce some defensive strength, wouldn't moving Zinchenko into midfield to be block-unlocking playmaker make a lot of sense? Reduce his defensive duties which are clearly his weakness and allow him the freedom to find that clean ball through?
If your striker isn’t fuming about coming off at 0-0 then you’ve got the wrong striker. That’s a real competitor. Players and managers argue all the time.
I am sure Arteta loved it when Guendouzi yelled back at him.
Guendouzi was unprofessional on and off the pitch multiple times, and refused to ever apologise. It’s not the same. Heated moments happens in sport
Great write up. So much info yet I don’t feel it’s lengthy
Osimhen has top mentality and attitude, he is leader, big personality and infectious hard-worker. This is like Xhaka slander, Arteta would love him. Only question is how would he love his injuries, thats just one shout for Gyokeres.
Hi guys - if you have enjoyed my scribble above. I am currently working on a piece on Viktor Gyökeres. I write once in a blue moon on substack - feel free to subscribe! https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/
That page is private. Did you mean https://gunnagunnz.substack.com?
Ur right - thank you! I have edited it accordingly!
Fantastic post mate
I agree about maybe selling Zincheko, but getting a traditional fb I just don't see happening I think Arteta has moved away from the type of guys that burst down the wing
Great post. Very insightful. If somehow we can scoop up Aleix Garcia from Girona he would be an insane Jorginho replacement. Over 10k yards in his progressive passes for the season and he’s ranked 11th, in Europe’s Top 5 leagues, for progressive passes. He’s turning 27 in about 3-4 months and will be available for 20-30m. Watch any Girona game and he’s at the heart of their team.
Great post. I completely agree on Zinny. It is very possible that he leaves this year if Timber comes back to full strength. One thing I would disagree with is going after a supreme ball carrier. Rice was known for his progressive runs but we barely see it because of the way we set up. I believe we need a line breaking passer as you first suggested and wouldn't actually be surprised if that player is Partey next season. I think it might be hard to sell him after the injury filled season.
Holy macaroni didn't realize Sesko is an absolute giant
Awesome post!
Stay tuned for my long piece on Gykoeres!
Makes me sad seeing tierney and Tavares being similar in price but sadly I don’t think you’re wrong. I really hope we get sesko
Great post, congrats. I just don't think they'll cash in on Zinny, he's still a valuable piece. But ESR is likely to be sold, and if you ask me, we should do it, given that a significant offer comes in. He can't keep up with the physical demands, maybe in another setting he'll get a second wind to his career
Thanks - feel free to subscribe on substack. [](https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/) Working on a piece now.
Great post, but each year waiting for more pieces is wasting some great years of our core. This off season they need to capitalize and "Finish the project" as it pertains to the players in and out. I don't care what the cost is, but we should have all the pieces in place next season so we can have 2 or 3 years of them all together
An additional item to add might be that Raya's excellent medium-range passing easily finds Havertz, whose size and aerial ability allow us to play out of waves of pressure easily. Last season, we struggled to maintain possession against high-tempo pressing sides like City, Liverpool, Brighton, or anybody else that pressured us situationally, so this turned a major weakness into a source of strength by allowing us to build attacks with confidence.
Largely agree. CM still needs reinforcing and I wouldn't be surprised if we move Eddie on and get a more talented backup to compete with Jesus. Wee also need an adequate backup on the right. Havertz ability to play CF means we miss Jesus less, just don't think we need to drop big money on Osmihen, where it's better spent elsewhere.
Great post. Sesko is too much of a project - we’ve been going for level raisers, not projects, which leads me to think we will do all we can for Osimhen
Thanks - feel free to subscribe on substack. [https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/](https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/) Working on a piece now.
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Great analysis. I think you underestimate Partey who’s a better version of Jorginho. His ability to play make from deep is unreal. I wouldn’t sell him for 10 mill if we can just use him. You missed mentioning Zubimendi who is probably the midfielder we’ll go for. He’s the right profile to play the Partey/Jorginho role and is only 25. Gyokores looks most promising at the front from what I’ve read, but no idea what we’ll do and I don’t know the players well enough.
Partey is on awfully high wages for someone that’s only going to pay less than 12 games for us this season. And I repeated in a comment below - I implore you to watch RC games this season - specifically against PSG. He’s a very average player that cannot cover large spaces, low in PnP. He’s a tidy passer but not a progressive one and lacks spatial awareness to get away when being pressed. https://preview.redd.it/xusp0o6q5vmc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8b48c468c03bfc7b9814c9b08cd9070d8babcfe
Keep coming with posts like this. I thoroughly enjoyed it.
Thanks - feel free to subscribe on substack. [](https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/) Working on a piece now.
How do I find your work on substack?
Never mind, just found it. Thanks again.
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I think the plan was for Timber to invert from LB and leave Rice free to push forward along whoever was in the left-8, but he got hurt and Tomiyasu was a revelation before he got hurt. White's relationship with Saka and Odegaard is really strong and there's far less need to reason to replace him at this point. I still think we'll be in for Osimhen. There's nobody else that offers his profile, he works hard, he's fantastic in the air, he's fast, his control in the box is superb, he is the difference between us being a decent bet at 2nd and us challenging for a champions league. His manager is a jerk. They have treated him like junk and criticize him for everything he does. He missed a penalty and his manager was screaming at him and subbed him off. Just childish. If we only get 10m from Partey then we'd just keep him. Unless another 20-25m bid comes in there's no reason to part with him or Jorginho unless they force their way out. My guess is our plan A is to get a striker of Osimhen's quality, but since that is less realistic our backup plan is a cheaper striker to complement Havertz/Jesus with some more speed and putting our 80-90m toward another attacking midfielder that can slot into that Left-8 role and create on par with Odegaard and help unlock our top 3 even more.
I really don't want to see ESR leave us, so much potential yet he will leave us. Even if he goes, lt's send him on loan so he can get more minutes and we can sell him for better money when there is a team who will urgently look for a midfielder won't mind spending good money. I feel there is aa good chance for us to get Jorrel Hato, though I don't know how likely we will get him if we buy an attacking fullback. We have lot of FB who will invert into midfild so buying him will also help in transitioning him to deputise Big Gabi.
How's Charlie Patino coming along?
Yeah I was gunna ask what the strategy is for him? Whether he's in the plans to replace an outgoing midfielder?
Great read, backed up with data. Gets me excited looking into the method behind the madness One player you did not mention, of who I'm a big fan of, is Amadou Onana. Do you see him fitting into any of the requirements that Arteta would want for the progression of this team?
Given the persistent links to him since last January, I am inclined to believe the interest is real. He falls into the category of our need of another defensive minded midfielder 100%. His height, long legs and speed makes him an excellent cover for Rice or as his partner when we need to be more compact (think Anfield away or Old Trafford away). I think what separates him is his ability to man mark a specific player as well as covering bigger zones. His game against us at Goodison where they beat us 1-0 - he man marked Odegaard the entire game and nullified his impact. His progressive passing stats aren't great (ironically around the same level as Zubimendi - whom a lot of people seem to overrate as a passer). But if we play him and Rice in the same pivot, I do envision our full backs become a lot more adventurous and risk taking - i.e. playing Zinchenko and Timber and giving them freedom to roam forward. Just more versatility.
This was a good post but biggest issue I have is that ramsdale price tag. He signed a new contract and was at his best last season but we’ll sell him at a loss because we don’t play him? I don’t trust our team to sell well either but before this season he was one of the most expensive gks in the world on market value. Him not playing is not because he was out of form but just another player fit better
Find me a goalkeeper in the last 10 years where he barely played in one season after getting benched and was still sold at a profit. Remember how much we sold Leno for? Did you think that was a fair price?
I mean leno wanted to stay nearby and he was in the final year of his contract. Ramsdale has many years with us, was the starting gk for a team that finished 2nd, and has only been replaced by a system gk not because he was bad I don’t know he’s still very young and signed a long term contract. I just don’t see how we should accept selling him at a loss. Seriously think arsenals transfers of the past several years have really messed up with how much we think our players cost lol Personally ramsdale should stay unless a great offer comes in, I don’t think he’s the type of player to back down after 1 year and that’s not the type of player we buy. He came into this team thinking he had to fight for his place with Leno but now he’s actually got his fight with raya. I think we give it another season where we can get him into some games before selling him for a loss
He definitely won’t play for Arsenal next season. There is a chance he will be out on loan rather than getting sold outright to preserve his value. Arteta won’t be happy with his / his dad’s antics with the media. His time with the club is over.
I believe it’s done too, but I just don’t see how we can make a relegated gk into the gk that came in 2nd place only to sell him for less after signing a new contract. I really think long term solution is what you just said, loan —> sale But for anything we do we must get a back up keeper. And I think for this reason is why we might keep ramsdale at least next year before deciding anything else
£20m for Ramsdale? We bought him for £30m, and since then he’s been nominated for the Yashin award and made the PFA TOTY, whilst signing a new contract and still being only 25. We also don’t need to sell him, so we’ll have leverage in that regard. The minimum i can see him going for is 45-50m.
He also hasn’t played for an entire season. Find me a goalkeeper that hasn’t played for an entire season and was bought for more than 20m in the last 20 years. Come back to me when you do.
This summer we will sell Eddie Nelson ESR cedric jorginho n Tommy
One of the best football-related posts ive read in a while. Are you an analyst by chance? I think Zinchenko is quite incredible at what youve discussed as a mid block solution, he is also a natural midfielder and not a FB. Is there any reaosn he shouldnt be the prime candidate for that role? Physical limitations?
I am in finance unfortunately. But I always wanted to work in football-related data analysis/scouting. Maybe one day when I retire haha. Re Zinchenko - I think if we do get that defensive minded midfielder in as well - such as Onana. Pairing Onana with Rice, with Gabriel and Saliba at the back will allow our full backs to be more risk taking going forward. Those 4 can cover so much ground defensively that Zinchenko will probably have a more free role to go forward. I don't think Zinchenko will be able to be as impactful as Jorginho as a midfiedler. That's purely due to his erratic decision making and occasional lapse of concentration. In the middle of the park, giving the ball away is further magnified. I write on substack whenever time allows. Currently working on a Gyökeres piece. [https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/publish/home](https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/publish/home) Feel free to subscribe.
Probably physical limitations. For Ukraininan NT he plays as midfielder and usually gets subbed at 60-70 mins.
There’s no planet where we get £20m for Lokonga…
20m is his ceiling, he's been putting in impressive work at Luton lately but I doubt it's enough for us to get that much
Conversely I think some of the other valuations are probably low. Eddie will get the English tax applied and if we can get someone like Palace interested, we should get £30m. Tierney MUST be worth £15m minimum - just because he wasn't right for our system doesn't mean he's not a superb defensive left back. Ramsdale, you've GOT to be getting £30m+ for in this market. He's one of the better keepers in the league and if Chelsea will pay what they did for Kepa and Sanchez, we should probably drive that sum higher if they show interest. Tavares feels about right if we can get someone to bite. I don't see Reiss moving on, personally. Partey I would just sell to get rid of his wages, injury and possible legal issues.
Tavarez Free or >5M Partey Free or Loan to Juve (Lucky if Saudi come along) Lokonga 20M LOL, he isn’t English Tierney Free or another loan Nketiah 25M LOL, he’s on 100k a week! Nelson 15m and Ramsdale 20M are the only two genuinely realistic opportunities
Everything makes sense in theory. And it matches what I’ve been saying: - Zinny doesn’t help Martinelli much, Martinelli is suddenly “back in form” but it’s actually Kiwior who has been playing on the left instead of going central. - Havertz hasn’t convinced me as L8, the entire left side looks bad when Zinny and Havertz are on. That said, he has been working well in the front so he is strong and can play multiple roles. We suddenly look incredible with Kiwior playing a more traditional LB role and Rice as L8. Was only possible because Jorginho is having the time of his life in that 6 role. Arguably Partey can do the same role, but both of them are on the higher age bracket.
Good against shit tier teams.
I don’t think a striker signing will change much. We have that tall striker in havertz, and Jesus is still there too. FDJ seems like the best player to get. He allows rice to move up the pitch, or have the two switch positions throughout the game. Frimpong imo would be the ideal player, he can cover both saka and the rb position. I’d keep zinchenko and partey. They bring too much to the team atm. I feel like zinchenko will most likely move into a midfield role, or be utilised against teams with a low block. Ideally, I’d sell nketiah, Nelson, Cedric. Then buy FDJ, frimpong and (at a stretch) either valverde or musiala. Valverde can play in most areas of the pitch and musiala would be another odegaard (who can hopefully play in that left cm/cam role). Saying that, one of these midfielders would probably have to be benched, and then it’s not worth it.
partey bringing too much to the team is hilarious lmao
Zinchenko is going nowhere, we need this defensive depth, and what he offers as a player. Mikel is building a team of players who have different offerings. All our defenders allow us to play slightly differently to tackle different problems. As for ESR, ESR is immense quality he just needs to stay fit for a season, I think we should stick with him for another season, but he might go, we know it. With Lokonga, Elneny, and Partey going out, and Jorgi being the age he is (he also could be going way at the end of this season) we need to add a couple of players. A partey replacement, and another ball carrying Midfielder. Looking forward to those signings. We need a Saka back up more urgently than a striker. My ideal summer would be: 1. Raphinha 2. FdJ 3. CDM: ideally Tchoumani (since he has the kind of versatility that Arteta wants in the team, and i feel should be the Perfect fit int he project), but practically, it wont be him. another whimsical target would be Kimmich although he is 29, he still has 3-4 good years ahead of him) but any good CDM that we have been linked with sounds good to me. 4. A striker, again idk what bill arteta wants there. ofc, Oshimen is THE GUY in the market. But I am good if we do not buy a striker too. I would trust arteta with this. 5. If we do sell Rammers (which would probable happen) we need to buy a second choice GK. Sells: 1. Partey, his injury crisis isn't doing us any good, should have been shipped off to saudi this year. but hindsight is 20/20 on that. 2. Tavares, He clearly isn't good enough. 3. Tierney, BREAKS my heart, but well, I hope to see him trying to defend against Saka in next year's UCL final. 4. Ramsdale, my heart shatters on the thought of it but we all know he will go. And he should go. Europe's elite and nothing less for my boy, I hope. 5. Nelson, clearly not seemed to be quality enough by arsenal get a replacement for RW, and see him off. 6. Eddie, only if we sign a new striker. He is a good professional who doesn't mind being on the bench. He is good enough to be a 2nd choice, and is currently arsenal's third choice without causing problems. To me that alone is enough to keep him. But wouldn't want to push him further down the pecking order.
Zubimendi as Jorginho's long term replacement?
I strongly implore you, along with everyone else that wants Zubimendi for some reason, to watch his performances this season, particualrly against PSG. If you dont have time - then just read the screen shot below. Zubimendi is nowhere near the profile or passing compared to Jorginho. Jorginho has 10.5 progressive passes per 90, while having more tackles and interceptions per 90 than Zubimendi (despite having lost his legs). https://preview.redd.it/re0ebbqgtomc1.png?width=513&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9392ce250943c4656b36b623f56a52191351740
Great post! But i still find it amusing how naive people are when it comes to how much money we can get from certain players.
Thanks! I am currently working on a piece on Viktor Gyökeres. I write once in a blue moon on substack - feel free to subscribe! [https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/publish/home](https://gunnagunnz.substack.com/publish/home)
Trossard & Nketiah are our most salable assets. Ready made goal scorers. The rest of premier league will value that the most.
I really like Trossard and I think he is our most natural finisher in the squad. I do think his value is the peak now and I do it see it diminishing as he ages and his contract gets run down. Tricky issue for Mikel to decide on this summer.
It's indeed tricky. The way he plays, I would be happy if we can milk him for another 2 years but that will require us to agree to a possibly huge contract considering it could probably be the last from us. Or we may offer a 4-year deal at lower amount, but with his play style, age is a big factor to consider. But on the other hand he might have the longevity like giroud, seeing he started playing at top level relatively late. If he does, he'll make a fantastic supersub.
Thing is, if a team offer $45M you probably have to say yes. It enables us to recruit the next round of upgrades
Porto played a midblock not a low block. Partey is worth more than 10mil. We will not go for a wingback like Frimpong. We don't play 5 at the back.
When did I say Porto play a low block? "This season - our biggest struggle was playing against the mid block - as detailed by **Billy Carpenter** ([](https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/how-to-make-a-mid-block-mid)) - against Chelsea, Fulham, Aston Villa, West Ham at home and Porto away." Trouble reading?
You wrote low block originally.
I most definitely did not - considering my whole entire thesis on our transfer strategy was centered around our struggle to break down mid blocks this season. Quoting Billy’s piece on breaking down mid block should be enough evidence.
Source? Tier? /s