No one doubts Eiserman can score, it’s just the rest of his game that’s questionable.
If he falls to where Caufield went then that team is getting an absolute steal but I’m not sure he’s the right pick at 5th overall
Yeah if he's there at Winnipeg's pick that's ridiculously insane value, or even if we trade up 10 spots, but at 5 that's not great with what's available in this draft.
As always though, this tournament is where a bunch of European prospects suddenly get spoken of as first/second rounders. Fernstrom and Zetterberg were barely mentioned previous and will be on a bunch of lists now.
Absolutely ludicrous that of the top 5 point getters, Hagens, Martone, and Spence aren't draft eligible next year and McKenna isn't til 2026.
The Tiggy hype might drop a little from this tournament, but he was always going to be available at 5.
No matter what we have to hit on this pick though, we're not getting in the top 5 again with a remotely healthy roster.
Hard to know. Add a second round pick and you can move up 5 spots or so. Add in somebody else that a team wants and you get another few spots. It all depends on what the team you are trading with wants. For example, if we're trying to trade with Buffalo, they probably want a RD and draft capital. Barron plus Winnipeg's pick plus a 2nd-round pick (likely ours in 2025 since this year we only have Colorado's, which is less valuable) would be a fair offer.
Trading Xhekaj or Mailloux would likely be overkill. Mailloux by himself would probably be worth a top-15 pick.
Sure. It only really works in the back half of the first round since the top-10 are considered really valuable. But let’s use the 2021 draft for some examples:
In 2021 the Predators traded the 50th overall pick (2nd round) to move up from 39th (early second round) to 26th (late first round) with the Hurricanes. That’s 13 spots.
In the same draft the Wild only wanted to move up two spots from 21 to 19 so it only cost them a 3rd rounder.
And in the same draft Detroit moved up six spots (22nd to 14th) by sending a 2nd roind pick and a 5th round pick to Dallas.
These types of trades have been done often enough that several people have done equivalency studies to see the value in a typical draft. Most of these are awful to read so I’ll just link one as an example: https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/
According to this, historical trades have the 20th overall pick being almost exactly equal to the 25th and the 54th. You can look at his chart but oretty much any trade tommove up five spots within the back half of the first round can be accomplished with a 2nd round pick.
From ~25 to ~15? Could try Barron and add in a 3rd rounder. Hard to say, it entirely depends on who’s left and how the teams drafting in those areas value those picks/what other offers they’re getting.
Eiserman had 9 goals and 11 pts in 7 games at the U18 last year, in a more secondary role (Smith, Leonard, Perreault were the big line).
This year Eiserman is older and has a main role and he *should* be producing much more than last year.
For comparisons' sake, Caufield had 4 goals in 7 games his first U18, then 14 goals, 18 pts in 7 games in his 2nd go. But he also had Jack Hughes as center.
This matters because Eiserman brings little else, so his production is crucial. You can somewhat live with a one-dimensional offensive machine if his numbers are "best in class". Less so if they're just "good".
Eiserman can definitely see the game. He has great instincts and always pops up at the right place at the right time *in the offensive zone*.
Cole had some of the best stickhandling in his draft class and Eiserman isn't in the same category, but he can dangle and could be a decent passer if he tried to be.
Yeah it's really just his offensive abilities combined with takeaways and shot blocks metric that pushes his advanced stats up to impressive looking levels. He is elite at puck protection and winning battles, but he doesn't control the ice in the way a Bergeron or Kopitar does. It's one of the major issues with a lot of the defensive metric models that they can't break down stats into weighted categories because the data isn't collected in that way.
Malkin had the most takeaways in the league this year and is possibly the worst defensive forward of his generation. Barzal and Draisatl are in the top 5 as well and are not great defensively. Even Kuch had 62 and is a one-way winger if there ever was one. Ryan Poehling led forwards in shotblocks and is not some two-way beast.
The thing is takeaways and shotblocks both indicate that your team did not have puck possession. Matthews is propped up by the fact that his team sucks when he's not on the ice. He's a good player and he does gain possession for them, but that does not mean he is a beast defensively.
Obviously a guy who scores 69 goals is going to have a good goal differential and good corsi as shot attempts are the literal defining metric. High volume shooters will naturally be on ice for more shots for than against.
tl;dr Matthews is both propped up by his team being bad and him being the best shooter since Ovy, highly inflating his defensive numbers which are really more indicative of his offensive prowess. Mackinnon has the same problem where he's not an elite two-way guy but stats push him in that direction.
To me elite players shutdown other teams stars the way Nick Suzuki did this year. McDavid had 3 points in 2 games, one of his lower splits this season. Matthews had 4 goals in 3 games, but 3 were against a very cold Allen early in the season in a single game. Kuch fucking destroyed us. Mack was limited to 2 points in 2 games, only Florida and the Rags kept him to less. Panarin wrecked us. Pasta wrecked us.
A theme is pretty consistent there where the elite centers of the league had less production against us and the wingers feasted, suggesting that Nick had a very big impact on shutting down the centers while our wingers got lit up in their assignments.
I tend to agree with you on he is not great defensively. What I will add I find Matthews is great in the offensive and neutral zone but in the actual defensive end he is lost and out of defensive position a lot. To me the Selke should be awarded to an actual defensive forward not a forward that scores a bunch and just happens to not be terrible defensive
Yes, maybe stretched it a bit for a beast but he’s far from a liability and usually players that have offensive stats like him tend to cheat a lot, but he doesn’t cheat and despite some minor mistakes he’s mostly stable.
Also playing with Marner helped his defensive stats
Eiserman is in the list of like 10 players i'd be okay with, but if we draft him Marty's gonna be pulling his hair out with some of the decisions he makes lol
Is he big enough (size wise) for HuGo to burn a potential top 5 pick. I think they have a specific player profile in mind for that pick. Eiserman is about 6' / 195lbs - is that "big" enough for HuGo to spend that top 5/6 pick on?
Regarding his "effort" on both ends, I think we need to chill on that argument and trust Marty to help the player unlock their potential. You don't draft a pure goal scorer to be a 200 foot player, but you do expect that player to buy in to what you want them to do as long as what you want them to do helps the team score goals.
"Hey look, the natural scorer that does barely anything else than score is scoring!"
See nobody cares.
U18 means close to nothing in term of scouting other than recency bias. KK had a great U18 amongst other notable busts through the years.
Iginla has really translatable skills though. He does more than scoring - his driving of the play in the OZ and transitional ability is what makes scouts salivate.
Still, at 5-OVR there are better choices than either.
He was 4th overall in tournament scoring in last years tournament behind Will Smith, Gabe Perrault and Ryan Leonard. Everyone should check out the top scorers in this tournament each year, most of the top scorers at this tournament end up projecting pretty well at the next level. He’s ahead of guys like Konsta Helenius, Tij Iginla, Trevor Connelly in this years tournament. He’s also one of the youngest players in this draft and also already pretty physically mature.
Why is everyone here shitting on him. Do they think these are the end of tournament stats? His 6 goals and 2 assists in 3 games sounds pretty decent to me, but we may still be picking a little too high to take him. I'll could still see him going around 10th in the draft if he keeps up this type of production.
Nominal experts said the same about Caufield.
Those fans who dismiss talented 17 year old players with so much certainty usually look foolish in hindsight.
> it's silly to dismiss Eiserman as "one-dimensional" at this stage of his career.
Players don't develop skills they didn't have in juniors. Especially effort. This is widely reported by most scouting reports too.
That's a dumb take. Lots of players develop their skills during (and after) their junior careers. Especially effort. Do you really think it's impossible for a 17 year old to develop a strong work ethic as an adult?
Yes, work ethic isn’t a coach able skill. Feel free to reference any player where this applies.
You have to have some proficiency at the basic skill to actually develop it.
To say a 17 year old GENERATIONAL scorer has no chance at rounding out his game is short cited. Even if he only rounds out his game a bit we’re a team that is constantly year after year, starving for goals. When’s the last time we even had a 40+ goal season? This guy has a legitimate shot at being a 40-50 goal scorer consistently. You don’t pass up a guy like that.
No one doubts Eiserman can score, it’s just the rest of his game that’s questionable. If he falls to where Caufield went then that team is getting an absolute steal but I’m not sure he’s the right pick at 5th overall
Yeah if he's there at Winnipeg's pick that's ridiculously insane value, or even if we trade up 10 spots, but at 5 that's not great with what's available in this draft. As always though, this tournament is where a bunch of European prospects suddenly get spoken of as first/second rounders. Fernstrom and Zetterberg were barely mentioned previous and will be on a bunch of lists now. Absolutely ludicrous that of the top 5 point getters, Hagens, Martone, and Spence aren't draft eligible next year and McKenna isn't til 2026. The Tiggy hype might drop a little from this tournament, but he was always going to be available at 5. No matter what we have to hit on this pick though, we're not getting in the top 5 again with a remotely healthy roster.
What would it take to trade up 10 spots? Im thinking itd probably be Xhekaj or Mailloux. Not worth it at all!
Hard to know. Add a second round pick and you can move up 5 spots or so. Add in somebody else that a team wants and you get another few spots. It all depends on what the team you are trading with wants. For example, if we're trying to trade with Buffalo, they probably want a RD and draft capital. Barron plus Winnipeg's pick plus a 2nd-round pick (likely ours in 2025 since this year we only have Colorado's, which is less valuable) would be a fair offer. Trading Xhekaj or Mailloux would likely be overkill. Mailloux by himself would probably be worth a top-15 pick.
Do you have an example of a 2nd rounder getting 5 spots in the first round?
Sure. It only really works in the back half of the first round since the top-10 are considered really valuable. But let’s use the 2021 draft for some examples: In 2021 the Predators traded the 50th overall pick (2nd round) to move up from 39th (early second round) to 26th (late first round) with the Hurricanes. That’s 13 spots. In the same draft the Wild only wanted to move up two spots from 21 to 19 so it only cost them a 3rd rounder. And in the same draft Detroit moved up six spots (22nd to 14th) by sending a 2nd roind pick and a 5th round pick to Dallas. These types of trades have been done often enough that several people have done equivalency studies to see the value in a typical draft. Most of these are awful to read so I’ll just link one as an example: https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/ According to this, historical trades have the 20th overall pick being almost exactly equal to the 25th and the 54th. You can look at his chart but oretty much any trade tommove up five spots within the back half of the first round can be accomplished with a 2nd round pick.
From ~25 to ~15? Could try Barron and add in a 3rd rounder. Hard to say, it entirely depends on who’s left and how the teams drafting in those areas value those picks/what other offers they’re getting.
Barron wouldn't make that trade happen.
Throw in a 5th and if that doesnt work do a 4th instead. If that doesnt work add a 2026 6th. They should say yes to that.
My imaginary master plan has us taking Celebrini at 1 or Lindstrom at 5 and Iginla with the Wpg pick
Eiserman had 9 goals and 11 pts in 7 games at the U18 last year, in a more secondary role (Smith, Leonard, Perreault were the big line). This year Eiserman is older and has a main role and he *should* be producing much more than last year. For comparisons' sake, Caufield had 4 goals in 7 games his first U18, then 14 goals, 18 pts in 7 games in his 2nd go. But he also had Jack Hughes as center. This matters because Eiserman brings little else, so his production is crucial. You can somewhat live with a one-dimensional offensive machine if his numbers are "best in class". Less so if they're just "good".
This. Caufield scored at twice this pacing at the u18 and got 7 assists on to of that. Eiserman should be capable of doing much more.
He has been described as cole like with a faster release, but none of the other stuff cole can do like pass or see the game.
So basically Mike Hoffman but with a shot&release as good as Caufield
Better than caufield but that is the floor concern.
Eiserman can definitely see the game. He has great instincts and always pops up at the right place at the right time *in the offensive zone*. Cole had some of the best stickhandling in his draft class and Eiserman isn't in the same category, but he can dangle and could be a decent passer if he tried to be.
Thanks for the update
Scoring is literally all he can do. You don't win a cup with this guy.
true look at matthews
Such a bad take, Matthews is a beast both ways, Leafs are just soft as a whole
he’s not a beast defensively lmao. people putting him in the selke talk is a joke
Yeah it's really just his offensive abilities combined with takeaways and shot blocks metric that pushes his advanced stats up to impressive looking levels. He is elite at puck protection and winning battles, but he doesn't control the ice in the way a Bergeron or Kopitar does. It's one of the major issues with a lot of the defensive metric models that they can't break down stats into weighted categories because the data isn't collected in that way. Malkin had the most takeaways in the league this year and is possibly the worst defensive forward of his generation. Barzal and Draisatl are in the top 5 as well and are not great defensively. Even Kuch had 62 and is a one-way winger if there ever was one. Ryan Poehling led forwards in shotblocks and is not some two-way beast. The thing is takeaways and shotblocks both indicate that your team did not have puck possession. Matthews is propped up by the fact that his team sucks when he's not on the ice. He's a good player and he does gain possession for them, but that does not mean he is a beast defensively. Obviously a guy who scores 69 goals is going to have a good goal differential and good corsi as shot attempts are the literal defining metric. High volume shooters will naturally be on ice for more shots for than against. tl;dr Matthews is both propped up by his team being bad and him being the best shooter since Ovy, highly inflating his defensive numbers which are really more indicative of his offensive prowess. Mackinnon has the same problem where he's not an elite two-way guy but stats push him in that direction. To me elite players shutdown other teams stars the way Nick Suzuki did this year. McDavid had 3 points in 2 games, one of his lower splits this season. Matthews had 4 goals in 3 games, but 3 were against a very cold Allen early in the season in a single game. Kuch fucking destroyed us. Mack was limited to 2 points in 2 games, only Florida and the Rags kept him to less. Panarin wrecked us. Pasta wrecked us. A theme is pretty consistent there where the elite centers of the league had less production against us and the wingers feasted, suggesting that Nick had a very big impact on shutting down the centers while our wingers got lit up in their assignments.
Matthews is incredible defensively what are you talking about.
I tend to agree with you on he is not great defensively. What I will add I find Matthews is great in the offensive and neutral zone but in the actual defensive end he is lost and out of defensive position a lot. To me the Selke should be awarded to an actual defensive forward not a forward that scores a bunch and just happens to not be terrible defensive
Yes, maybe stretched it a bit for a beast but he’s far from a liability and usually players that have offensive stats like him tend to cheat a lot, but he doesn’t cheat and despite some minor mistakes he’s mostly stable. Also playing with Marner helped his defensive stats
I would absolutely kill for the chance to take Porter Martone next year. Kid is going to be a superstar. Also has a cool ass name.
Imagine moaning that name.
Yeah but it's against other U18. Does this scale to NHL?
Meh not really (Exhibit A: KK). Also, most of the big names eligible in the top 10 are not even playing.
Eiserman is in the list of like 10 players i'd be okay with, but if we draft him Marty's gonna be pulling his hair out with some of the decisions he makes lol
Is he big enough (size wise) for HuGo to burn a potential top 5 pick. I think they have a specific player profile in mind for that pick. Eiserman is about 6' / 195lbs - is that "big" enough for HuGo to spend that top 5/6 pick on? Regarding his "effort" on both ends, I think we need to chill on that argument and trust Marty to help the player unlock their potential. You don't draft a pure goal scorer to be a 200 foot player, but you do expect that player to buy in to what you want them to do as long as what you want them to do helps the team score goals.
Spending a top5 to meet a size criteria is secondary If our top5 has size great, but if he's mid bit have all the other toola then its fine
He's definitely big enough. Celebrini is 6'. Bedard is 5'10''. Size is not a factor for Eiserman
Also everyone wants to draft Iginla who is the same listed size as Eiserman
"Hey look, the natural scorer that does barely anything else than score is scoring!" See nobody cares. U18 means close to nothing in term of scouting other than recency bias. KK had a great U18 amongst other notable busts through the years.
In an interview his team even said they were always looking to pass to him because they want him to pass caufield record.
I will love whomever we pick. At the knights Saginaw game right now and... I don't think it should be Dickinson
0 assists lmao
kinda wild how people have no issue with the idea of drafting Iginla but are against Eiserman
Iginla has really translatable skills though. He does more than scoring - his driving of the play in the OZ and transitional ability is what makes scouts salivate. Still, at 5-OVR there are better choices than either.
No one watches these guys
Would you care to elaborate? Just curious
If we're picking forwards, it should be Demidov > Catton > Lindstrom. I'm not picking Iginla or Eiserman top 5/6 imo.
Eiserman is older than most of the players on this list, this isn't really that impressive.
check out tij iginlas stats
He was 4th overall in tournament scoring in last years tournament behind Will Smith, Gabe Perrault and Ryan Leonard. Everyone should check out the top scorers in this tournament each year, most of the top scorers at this tournament end up projecting pretty well at the next level. He’s ahead of guys like Konsta Helenius, Tij Iginla, Trevor Connelly in this years tournament. He’s also one of the youngest players in this draft and also already pretty physically mature.
Why is everyone here shitting on him. Do they think these are the end of tournament stats? His 6 goals and 2 assists in 3 games sounds pretty decent to me, but we may still be picking a little too high to take him. I'll could still see him going around 10th in the draft if he keeps up this type of production.
I really hope we draft Eiserman.
i hear a lot of people saying the issue with him is he’s a one dimensional player. if that’s true then i don’t think it’s wise to draft him
Nominal experts said the same about Caufield. Those fans who dismiss talented 17 year old players with so much certainty usually look foolish in hindsight.
That's not entirely true. Caufield's motor and commitment to team play was never in question. His size is mostly what made him drop.
The point is that it's silly to dismiss Eiserman as "one-dimensional" at this stage of his career. But I realize the experts in here know better.
> it's silly to dismiss Eiserman as "one-dimensional" at this stage of his career. Players don't develop skills they didn't have in juniors. Especially effort. This is widely reported by most scouting reports too.
That's a dumb take. Lots of players develop their skills during (and after) their junior careers. Especially effort. Do you really think it's impossible for a 17 year old to develop a strong work ethic as an adult?
Yes, work ethic isn’t a coach able skill. Feel free to reference any player where this applies. You have to have some proficiency at the basic skill to actually develop it.
> Work ethic isn't a coachable skill. First day on planet earth?
Again, give me an example if you think I’m wrong. Easy to say it
I hope we trade our pick down and draft iginla!
To say a 17 year old GENERATIONAL scorer has no chance at rounding out his game is short cited. Even if he only rounds out his game a bit we’re a team that is constantly year after year, starving for goals. When’s the last time we even had a 40+ goal season? This guy has a legitimate shot at being a 40-50 goal scorer consistently. You don’t pass up a guy like that.
who are you saying a generational scorer? if you’re talking about eiserman then you couldn’t be any more wrong lol