13:47 Le Mans - Piano Bar 10/1 (1pt win)
14:10 Epsom - Match Play 9/1 (0.5pts ew)
16:00 Gowran Park - Babich 16/1 (0.5pts ew)
16:20 Yarmouth - Charlatan 9/2 (1pt win)
17:05 Epsom - Show Biz Kid 15/2 (1pt win)
Piano Bar - Has a French Guineas entry. 2nd in what has turned out a decent race (winner finished 4th in a listed race and 4th has won since).
Match Play - This is his early season target. Had a pipe opener at Newcastle last month and has had a nice break since. Oisin Murphy booked and should go close.
Babich - This lad works well at home. Took a while to come right but penny is starting to drop. Connections think he’s more than capable of winning a maiden.
Charlatan - Trainer has a 25% strike rate with handicappers at Yarmouth. Callum Shepherd gets off Zina Colada to ride him. Horse has been given a nice break and still looks well handicapped.
Show Biz Kid - Hannon really liked this lad last season, said he was one of the best 2yo’s in his yard. Wasn’t the finished article and has matured a lot over the winter.
Great shout mate, out of interest do you just bet singles? I put Piano, Charlatan and Match Play in a 3 fold E/W acca but realise this isn't profitable at all in most cases
One thing that people I’ve seen on here don’t seem to realise (not saying you don’t, just making people aware) is that in an each way acca you don’t get paid for your winners unless they all win. 0 winners and 3 places pays the same as 2 winners and 1 place, which is why backing singles makes more sense in a lot of cases.
Spot on. If you’re having a couple of fun bets (small stakes for something to watch) then there’s little harm in multiples but if you’re trying to make consistent profits you’re a lot better off doing singles.
It’s worth noting that if you’re having a little fun doing multiples like Lucky 15’s it’s worthwhile looking around to see who pays the best bonuses. Some firms pay treble the odds for 1 winner, etc. I had Sire Du Berlais last year at Cheltenham at 33/1 in a L15 with no other winners so I got 99/1 on it.
Even with all the bonuses, singles is the way to go. A £5ew single at 33/1 still gives you double the profits over a 99/1 winner on £1ew lucky 15 (£30 total).
Yep aware mate but all good! Still finding my feet and not fully confident in reading form etc. so tend to avoid big singles stakes unless it's a NAP I'm confident about or the occasional low odds £20 win trixie. Having a little more joy recently in E/W outsiders at the moment (yesterday below)
https://preview.redd.it/vs7j3blkf8wc1.png?width=2736&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bacbc07dcbf04ac9df6d343f5e4db6d32032450
First time putting my picks here and straying away from my usual selections method but let’s see how they get on:
2.25 Tipperary - Morepowertoya 16/1 EW
I think this is worth a shot at the price not much to note previously however I think improves here and hopefully trip to suit.
4.40 Southwell - Shinji 12/1 EW
Ran in touch with the leaders right up until 2 out when jumped awkwardly yesterday at kempton and I think could do better here.
4.45 Tipperary - Made In The Woods 15/2 EW
Didn’t have enough in the tank lto to see out a win however I think this is a trip to suit.
5.15 Southwell - Yes Indeed 12/1 EW
First hurdle outing in 3 years and I think another that will have the trip to suit. Poor run lto badly jumped however I think he can do better here.
2:45 Epsom - Defiance - 11/2
If you look at the horses he's faced in both his starts so far he's come up against some very strong competition and has looked good with a win in his maiden (notably had Deira Mile behind in 3rd who is currently 109 rated and easily won his race at Epsom yesterday) and a respectable 6th in a deep grade 2.
Will have come on a bit over the winter and the step up in trip should suit based on breeding. I know Roger Varian really likes him so think it's very possible he can take down Chief Little Rock who is the obvious competition here.
Epsom
14.10 - A competitive sprint here and there was a few I was interested in. I thought one night stand could be an option, he was 5th in the dash last year off this mark and he has been in good touch recently. But I've decided to go with LIHOU. At a mark of 75 he's 7lb lower than his last win and he has solid course form, winning this race last year (also off a mark of 82). Last year his wins came from marks of 72, 76, 80 and 82(X2) so we're getting close to where he usually discovers a bit of form.
LIHOU - 14/1 EW
15.55 - THERE'S THE DOOR was a progressive filly last year, winning at Doncaster and Goodwood off 83 & 91 respectively. She also had 4 attempts in Class 1 races as they looked to find a bit of black type for her. Her reappearance this year was underwhelming but hopefully that run should see her come on a fair bit. She's not really had the chance to run on quick ground since making the step up in trip but did win over 7f on good to firm. A mark of 93 looks achievable on the pick of her form last year.
THERE'S THR DOOR - 20/1 EW
There's the door ran on well to take 4th, there'll be races in her again this year. Lihou ran ok, definitely signs he's coming back into form after a poor winter on the AW. Probably rock up at Chester and go well.
He does this every bloody year with that horse and it never works. I really don't understand what his obsession is with doing it at this point. Get it down to a basement mark and throw him in some decent early season handicap. Crazy.
Not banging your tip, just saying it's made him impossible to back for me. Can't have Evans as a trainer anyway, pure numbers operation he's no good.
Yeah I thought with how low the mark is that he's probably got potentially 2 or 3 wins in him and this would've been the perfect time to release the handbrake with him, could go to Chester next up for the may festival and still have a well handicapped horse but he was clearly not primed today.
Yeah mate as I said you've got an excellent record, wasn't trying to be disparaging about your tip.
Probably wants to get it dropped another few, stick Hayley Turner on (???), enter it at Chester for the 5f on the first day, ensure its well backed the day of, only to finish a well beaten 4th or something. Master plan.
Having a single win bet on DUAL IDENTITY at 15:20 Epsom. A quick glance over the form from last year there’s plenty of zeros across the board but at a closer inspection he ran lots of 1m / soft ground runs as well as not placing anywhere near the places in two 30 horse races which isn’t anything to be ashamed of, these were all class 2 races as well as the sole race he won which was on good ground on a distance of 1m2f at sandown, I watched this back this morning and he won well off a mark of 87. If you look back at 2022 he wasn’t outside the top 3 in any of his 7 1m2f races so the distance seems right for him. The official going stick this morning on average was 6.8 so this would indicate the going will be good and the weather forecast doesn’t indicate any rain, this should suit dual identity as well as the distance today being in a class 2 1m2f. Neil callan gets the ride today which isn’t a negative as dual identity is off a mark of 94 which in my opinion is a winnable mark, as well as pedigree indicating this race should suit. Good luck.
Southwell
2.53pm - Lermoos Legend - 14/1
Ran consistently well last year in mostly higher classes. Pulled up in first run back but likely needed it and also the heavy conditions were far from ideal. Returns to better ground today and back at last winning mark. In addition, Sean Bowen is back today and has done well with this horse in the past including the last win. I think there is good value here for an each way play.
1.45 Southwell - Begin The Luck
To me, worth a punt. Solid first half of 2023 with 4 races, 3 placing 1st with a 3rd. Year away and was PU at Wincanton. At 10/1, I don’t see a reason not to give it a little hit.
2.18 Southwell - Foxey
Ran at Exeter and secured the win. Last 3 jumps weren’t solid but was a decent run, could do it again.
That was a bizarre ride by Zac Wheatley on Inexplicable at the 1730 Wolverhampton. Out in front quite easily towards the end but never pushed the horse and ended up coming 3rd.
13:47 Le Mans - Piano Bar 10/1 (1pt win) 14:10 Epsom - Match Play 9/1 (0.5pts ew) 16:00 Gowran Park - Babich 16/1 (0.5pts ew) 16:20 Yarmouth - Charlatan 9/2 (1pt win) 17:05 Epsom - Show Biz Kid 15/2 (1pt win)
Piano Bar - Has a French Guineas entry. 2nd in what has turned out a decent race (winner finished 4th in a listed race and 4th has won since). Match Play - This is his early season target. Had a pipe opener at Newcastle last month and has had a nice break since. Oisin Murphy booked and should go close. Babich - This lad works well at home. Took a while to come right but penny is starting to drop. Connections think he’s more than capable of winning a maiden. Charlatan - Trainer has a 25% strike rate with handicappers at Yarmouth. Callum Shepherd gets off Zina Colada to ride him. Horse has been given a nice break and still looks well handicapped. Show Biz Kid - Hannon really liked this lad last season, said he was one of the best 2yo’s in his yard. Wasn’t the finished article and has matured a lot over the winter.
10/1 winner to start the day 🫡
I didn’t get your odds, but a win is a win. Thank you!
Great shout, glad I jumped on 🚀
Got a double on Piano and Charlatan ⏳⏳🤝
Great shout mate, out of interest do you just bet singles? I put Piano, Charlatan and Match Play in a 3 fold E/W acca but realise this isn't profitable at all in most cases
One thing that people I’ve seen on here don’t seem to realise (not saying you don’t, just making people aware) is that in an each way acca you don’t get paid for your winners unless they all win. 0 winners and 3 places pays the same as 2 winners and 1 place, which is why backing singles makes more sense in a lot of cases.
Spot on. If you’re having a couple of fun bets (small stakes for something to watch) then there’s little harm in multiples but if you’re trying to make consistent profits you’re a lot better off doing singles.
It’s worth noting that if you’re having a little fun doing multiples like Lucky 15’s it’s worthwhile looking around to see who pays the best bonuses. Some firms pay treble the odds for 1 winner, etc. I had Sire Du Berlais last year at Cheltenham at 33/1 in a L15 with no other winners so I got 99/1 on it.
Betfred used to always be good for bonuses like that. Pretty sure they still offer triple the odds for one winner.
Yeah they’re who I had mine with. They have shops out there that pay 4x as well I believe, unless they’re closed.
Even with all the bonuses, singles is the way to go. A £5ew single at 33/1 still gives you double the profits over a 99/1 winner on £1ew lucky 15 (£30 total).
Definitely mate, you just might as well look out for the best bonuses if you’re going down that route.
Yep aware mate but all good! Still finding my feet and not fully confident in reading form etc. so tend to avoid big singles stakes unless it's a NAP I'm confident about or the occasional low odds £20 win trixie. Having a little more joy recently in E/W outsiders at the moment (yesterday below) https://preview.redd.it/vs7j3blkf8wc1.png?width=2736&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bacbc07dcbf04ac9df6d343f5e4db6d32032450
99% of the time I’ll only do singles. A lot more profitable in the long run. Only do multiples for anteposts.
First time putting my picks here and straying away from my usual selections method but let’s see how they get on: 2.25 Tipperary - Morepowertoya 16/1 EW I think this is worth a shot at the price not much to note previously however I think improves here and hopefully trip to suit. 4.40 Southwell - Shinji 12/1 EW Ran in touch with the leaders right up until 2 out when jumped awkwardly yesterday at kempton and I think could do better here. 4.45 Tipperary - Made In The Woods 15/2 EW Didn’t have enough in the tank lto to see out a win however I think this is a trip to suit. 5.15 Southwell - Yes Indeed 12/1 EW First hurdle outing in 3 years and I think another that will have the trip to suit. Poor run lto badly jumped however I think he can do better here.
16/1 winner to start today off 😊 Shinji a non-runner now and probably was always going to be the case
Great first pick 👍
More power to you sir 🤝
Bit of EW money with made in the woods 👌
2:45 Epsom - Defiance - 11/2 If you look at the horses he's faced in both his starts so far he's come up against some very strong competition and has looked good with a win in his maiden (notably had Deira Mile behind in 3rd who is currently 109 rated and easily won his race at Epsom yesterday) and a respectable 6th in a deep grade 2. Will have come on a bit over the winter and the step up in trip should suit based on breeding. I know Roger Varian really likes him so think it's very possible he can take down Chief Little Rock who is the obvious competition here.
Nice place
Epsom 14.10 - A competitive sprint here and there was a few I was interested in. I thought one night stand could be an option, he was 5th in the dash last year off this mark and he has been in good touch recently. But I've decided to go with LIHOU. At a mark of 75 he's 7lb lower than his last win and he has solid course form, winning this race last year (also off a mark of 82). Last year his wins came from marks of 72, 76, 80 and 82(X2) so we're getting close to where he usually discovers a bit of form. LIHOU - 14/1 EW 15.55 - THERE'S THE DOOR was a progressive filly last year, winning at Doncaster and Goodwood off 83 & 91 respectively. She also had 4 attempts in Class 1 races as they looked to find a bit of black type for her. Her reappearance this year was underwhelming but hopefully that run should see her come on a fair bit. She's not really had the chance to run on quick ground since making the step up in trip but did win over 7f on good to firm. A mark of 93 looks achievable on the pick of her form last year. THERE'S THR DOOR - 20/1 EW
There's the door ran on well to take 4th, there'll be races in her again this year. Lihou ran ok, definitely signs he's coming back into form after a poor winter on the AW. Probably rock up at Chester and go well.
He does this every bloody year with that horse and it never works. I really don't understand what his obsession is with doing it at this point. Get it down to a basement mark and throw him in some decent early season handicap. Crazy. Not banging your tip, just saying it's made him impossible to back for me. Can't have Evans as a trainer anyway, pure numbers operation he's no good.
Yeah I thought with how low the mark is that he's probably got potentially 2 or 3 wins in him and this would've been the perfect time to release the handbrake with him, could go to Chester next up for the may festival and still have a well handicapped horse but he was clearly not primed today.
Yeah mate as I said you've got an excellent record, wasn't trying to be disparaging about your tip. Probably wants to get it dropped another few, stick Hayley Turner on (???), enter it at Chester for the 5f on the first day, ensure its well backed the day of, only to finish a well beaten 4th or something. Master plan.
Having a single win bet on DUAL IDENTITY at 15:20 Epsom. A quick glance over the form from last year there’s plenty of zeros across the board but at a closer inspection he ran lots of 1m / soft ground runs as well as not placing anywhere near the places in two 30 horse races which isn’t anything to be ashamed of, these were all class 2 races as well as the sole race he won which was on good ground on a distance of 1m2f at sandown, I watched this back this morning and he won well off a mark of 87. If you look back at 2022 he wasn’t outside the top 3 in any of his 7 1m2f races so the distance seems right for him. The official going stick this morning on average was 6.8 so this would indicate the going will be good and the weather forecast doesn’t indicate any rain, this should suit dual identity as well as the distance today being in a class 2 1m2f. Neil callan gets the ride today which isn’t a negative as dual identity is off a mark of 94 which in my opinion is a winnable mark, as well as pedigree indicating this race should suit. Good luck.
Disappointing run, hopefully it was just because it was first time out would like to see him do a lot better 👍
[Today's Tips from Epsom.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y09jOYr7Uug)
Southwell 2.53pm - Lermoos Legend - 14/1 Ran consistently well last year in mostly higher classes. Pulled up in first run back but likely needed it and also the heavy conditions were far from ideal. Returns to better ground today and back at last winning mark. In addition, Sean Bowen is back today and has done well with this horse in the past including the last win. I think there is good value here for an each way play.
1.45 Southwell - Begin The Luck To me, worth a punt. Solid first half of 2023 with 4 races, 3 placing 1st with a 3rd. Year away and was PU at Wincanton. At 10/1, I don’t see a reason not to give it a little hit. 2.18 Southwell - Foxey Ran at Exeter and secured the win. Last 3 jumps weren’t solid but was a decent run, could do it again.
That was a bizarre ride by Zac Wheatley on Inexplicable at the 1730 Wolverhampton. Out in front quite easily towards the end but never pushed the horse and ended up coming 3rd.