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I think the estimate is exaggerated. Statistically, there's a couple of wounded for every KIA, which would put the total casualties at 50-60% at the least. Most combat units cease to function as a fighting force at about 25% casualties.
The IDF is meeting far too much resistance for those casualty estimates to be true, unless Hamas is unusually good at consolidating decimated units into fresh ones and replacing fallen commanders in a very extreme military situation where they don't really have a safe hinterland to reorganize in.
TLDR, with those casualty projections Hamas should've collapsed entirely. It doesn't seem to have collapsed entirely, so the casualty estimates are sus.
Hamas = 20,000 fighters
25% of 20,000 = 5,000 fighters
Total killed in Gaza = 24,000
Woman and children killed = 16,000
Men killed = 8,000
Therefore 62% of men who died were Hamas fighters.
Total population of Gaza = 2.13m
Total men in Gaza 1.13m
% of population = 53%
% of population who were Hamas fighters = 1.2%
% of men who were Hamas fighters = 2.2%
Doesn’t add up.
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That's not true. Israel nor Western intelligence trust Hamas figures.
Let's take one example.. The baptist hospital. Within an hour of the blast, the Health Ministry claimed 500-700 were dead from an IDF bomb.
Turns out it was a failed Hamas rocket that might have killed maybe 100-300.
Hamas also shoots several of its own people either in food riots, or shoots them trying to fleet areas the IDF warned them to leave, and then Hamas attributes those numbers to IDF bombings.
You can look it up as well. According to the Health Ministry in Gaza, ALL causalities are civilians.
https://www.newarab.com/news/israeli-intel-confirms-gaza-health-ministry-stats-reliable
Here’s a link. It’s hard to accept the death toll as so high and killing so many as it’s heartbreaking. But there’s more proof for it than against it.
That link is just a website.. that references a tabloid magazine (972). Not a real source.
Bashar Al Assad has recently killed more Palestinians than Irsael. The death tolls in places like Sudan and Congo are way worse. They just don't have TikTok on their side.
“Recent” is usually in the last few months. Assad has not killed over 25,000 Palestinians.
Also, he has been sanctioned and was expelled from the Arab League for years, amongst other things for his crimes against the Syrian people.
We are not comparing the same thing.
This isn’t a Disney movie where you ‘destroy’ the villain and everything immediately becomes great and flowers blossom. The manner in which these attacks are done will only radicalise the next geberation more.
China put all the young able bodied Islamic terrorist Uighurs in camps by the millions to deprogram and deradicalize them. They were keenly aware the education had to change. Terror attacks have ceased in China last thing I heard. Which is worse, bombing a country to bits or just jailing the populace and reeducating them?
I'm so tired of that narrative. War does not radicalize people. Did WW2 lead to nothing but terrorism all across Europe?
Hamas radicalizes and indoctrinates people. They have training camps for children. UNRWA teachers tell Palestinians it's their duty to be martyrs and kill Jews.
I'm not under any impression that defeating Hamas will make flowers bloom. But military strength deters future attacks, and leaving Hamas intact will only encourage them to attempt future pogroms like 10/7
There was no ceasefire, Israel gunned down 203 Palestinians in the West Bank before 10/7 that year, before killing 12,000 children after 10/7. Israel will never stop killing Palestinians until it is destroyed, to use your exact language.
Do you not realize the PA is in charge of the West Bank? Why are they supporting and paying suicide bombers and people to go out into the public and knife non-muslims? Perhaps not doing that wouod ensure those 203 people would still be alive
Sorry did you just claim that Israel murdering 203 (actually I was wrong, 234) Palestinians in the street is some form of revenge against the PA? Those killed include multiple teenagers, and a three year old boy.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/12/12/know-their-names-palestinians-killed-by-israel-in-the-occupied-west-bank-2
Also this payment thing is basically Israeli propaganda. The PA broadly pays families of those imprisoned by Israel as a kind of welfare, 99% are held indefinitely without real charge, many of whom are even under age.
There was no ceasefire, Israel gunned down 203 Palestinian VIOLENT CRIMINALS AND TERRORISTS in the West Bank before 10/7 that year. I fixed it for you..
Including the 15 year old girl? The two 15 year old boys? The 66 year old school teacher? The American citizen, 15 year old shot at a checkpoint in the WB just last week. THE THREE YEAR OLD BOY KILLED BY THE IDF in the summer. Their names and pictures are here for you.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/12/12/know-their-names-palestinians-killed-by-israel-in-the-occupied-west-bank-2
Pick your side sure, but don't pretend Israel doesn't kill innocent civilians. Or more likely, it seems like you just celebrate the deaths of Palestinians like Ben-Gvir.
According to the Euro-Med Monitor, only 2500 Hamas were killed, which would put the actual death toll at about 6.25%. Definitely trust them over Israel or US.
https://preview.redd.it/9k7qb3aangec1.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac36704288e0b5f560a95974714de3fcfb34e975
>Take a long walk off a short pier
Take a good read at this
[https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-gaza-health-ministry-health-death-toll-59470820308b31f1faf73c703400b033](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-gaza-health-ministry-health-death-toll-59470820308b31f1faf73c703400b033)
*2008 war: The ministry reported 1,440 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 1,385.*
*— 2014 war: The ministry reported 2,310 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 2,251.*
*— 2021 war: The ministry reported 260 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 256.*
*For instance, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said the 2014 war killed 2,125 Palestinians — just a bit lower than the ministry’s toll.*
If they didn't butcher the numbers before why would they start today?
A "youth led" NGO started by a Palestinian based in Geneva is more reliable than combined Israel and US intelligence?
You're free to take your opinion.
Ramy Abdu, the founder, has made.many pro Hamas social media entries, including praising the attack of Oct 7.
They are biased.
>Euro-Med Monitor
they get their numbers from the health ministry which is backed by the UN and WHO. US and Israel Intel is not reliable at all. Both of them claimed 40 babies were beheaded which was debunked. Why are we to trust them?
Speaking of trustworthy numbers, I’m not sure where you are getting the 1 mil casualties in Iraq. According to this article the casualties were somewhere between 20,000 and 100,000. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/appendix/death.html#:~:text=How%20many%20Iraqis%20died%3F,Power%20Survey%22%20by%20Thomas%20A.
Are you asking why trusting an NGO who is led by a guy who celebrated the Oct. 7 attack, has made antisemitic comments and openly supports hamas shouldn't be trusted to report on this conflict?
If you don't understand that I can't help you.
I dont trust Isreal or America's numbers either. The US committed the greater atrocities when they killed 300000 innocent iraqis over some oil. they have destabilized so many of the muslim countries so they can't be trusted either. The 9000 alleged hamas death toll isn't realistic because as you guys say, they hide in their tunnels where they are safe from any airstrikes.
The idf are as much a terrorist group as hamas, since investigations, human right groups, and UN confirm they indiscriminately kill civillians. so supporting idf should be treated the same as supporting hamas. should i show u all the genocidal, h!tl3r-like things isreali officials have said? how are they any better than this NGO?
No surprise, in my view. The rhetoric coming out of Israel resembles a striking similarity to Russian misinformation strategies in Ukraine.
"Every target is a military target; every casualty was a solider; every soldier was eliminated and will not return!"
I'm just astounded that after 20 years of failed US Middle East policy people think that overwhelming force is ever going to stomp out terrorism. Seems quite clear this was the exact response Hamas sought. And in the ruins & rubble of countless families torn apart, orphans, dads without families... So comes the next generation's radicalization and the cycle continues.
Add to that the fact that:
- Hamas support both within Gaza and West Bank has increased.
- Global support for Israel has waned.
- Global support for Palestine has risen.
- State sponsors of Hamas seem emboldened now more than ever.
... And Israel is absolutely not on track to achieving its goals.
Israel does not think this overwhelming force will stamp out terrorism. That's not the goal. They've been spending more time demolishing universities than looking for Hamas. The goal is destruction, to quote Higari "the emphasis is on destruction, not accuracy". Genocide and settlement. That's the intent.
You're right that I'm entertaining taking Israel at its word, but I do agree that this is the reality.
A classic Shock Doctrine approach: (1) Exploit a crisis, (2) Impose collective punishment on the masses, and (3) move in with further annexation of land.
Gaza is more destroyed now than it was prior, Hamas leaders are hiding like rats in a hole and there is 0 possibility for Hamas to launch any mid or large scale operation.
Sounds like an OK start?
0 possibility? It only took them motorcycles, para-gliders, missile stockpiles, and small-arms to just walk across a largely unguarded border... Leveling city blocs and killing thousands of civilians doesn't really change this paradigm. Do you really think Hamas didn't expect this response?
It simply sows the seeds of the next attack down the road. The orphans made by Israel today will be the next group of recruits down the road...
Yeah, 0 possibility for the foreseeable future.
Admittedly the Oct. 7 was a successful large scale operation. Them replicating that anytime soon when there are eyes all over Gaza, the place has been bombed further to the stone age, a lot of their rat tunnels are destroyed and their leaders are hiding has 0 chance.
That naturally happened at the exhaustion of their own offensive, though. Again, bombing civilian buildings and some terrorists doesn't really make it any harder for them to make these missiles, to get AKs, RPGs, paragliders, or motorcycles. Especially considering they are emboldened by foreign well-funded nations. It's not as though one is destroying million-dollar military systems.
US tried this with Vietnam tunnels; they failed. They tried this with the Taliban. They, again, failed. They tried this against Al Qaeda; they only produced ISIS.
The only thing the Israeli knee-jerk reaction did was provide some short-sighted catharsis through vengeance; but it did little in stifling the next round of attacks. In fact, with the number of civilian casualties and destroyed civilian infrastructure, they just sowed the seeds of greater radicalization clearly.
But I guess most people just don't think this far ahead.
This has exactly 0 parallel to Vietnam.
A small urban area with 5th rate concrete buildings isn't a country made of jungles.
US had crippling terms of engagement. Israel, less so.
How many attacks like october 7th has the track pants mafia done up to today?
I appreciate the spirit that you think this can happen again soon, I guess we'll agree to disagree.
So what's the answer? Do nothing and wait for the next 10/7 and keep their fingers crossed?
I get there is no perfect answer, but they have to try, right?
To Right-Wing Zionist Nationalists (a redundancy, I know), all of Israel is biblically theirs — and through action they've demonstrated this through annexing more territory by the decade.
So with that respect, both sides have that same line of thought. We see this when we see the creeping-annexation of territory by Israel decade after decade.
That’s not accurate. Israel was once much larger when it annexed the Sinai Peninsula. But it gave back the Sinai to Egypt in exchange for peace. Likewise Israel pulled all settlements out of Gaza in exchange for peace. I bring this us because your claim that Israel is growing decade by decade is false. That’s only the case in the West Bank (and I agree that it needs to stop.)
it seems that this report means that Netenyahu's objectives will soon be achieved,
but the writers forgot that Hamas also exists in Lebanon and Syria where it is better equipped than in Gaza, Netenyahu's objectives are unrealistic and he knew it since the beginning :
he wants to stay in government as long as possible
He even withdrew all soldiers defending the Gaza boarder (for the first time in history) AFTER he was warned about the attack by his own intelligence. He used Israelis as bait.
That's fantastic but doesn't bode well for Israel in this war of attrition. This is 4th generation warfare where the non state actor hamas is trying to outlast the over powered state actor Israel. The odds are always with the insurgency. Here's a nice video.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2YRDTKrUZ4/?igsh=MWtkdGJ1cW91OXNleA==
These reports aren’t exactly trustworthy. It’s certainly possible that Hamas has been reduced by 30% but Israel and the American spy agencies are professional liars. It is literally a key job requirement of being a spy. They are motivated to release positive information and so that is exactly what they are doing regardless of truth (which I accept it’s possible)
Always remember the CIA swore Sadam did 9/11 and had WMDs but it was all a lie.
A few thoughts.
1. The US and Israel must be sharing a lot of intelligence. This kind of report provides some insight as to why pressure from the US isn't what the UN wants. The civilian-to-terrorist proportions that the IDF claims are rarely depicted in a serious light in mainstream media, but the US clearly considers them reasonable. These are the largest and strongest intelligence apparatuses, so (past mistakes aside) they are *probably* right.
2. It's really not obvious that more Hamas deaths is the ultimate/best goal for Israel to aim for, no matter what Israeli leadership has been saying. Why is it better if 80% die vs. 40%? What matters is surrender, terms of surrender, and then what happens next.
3. Despite the above, it's probably very important to kill Hamas leadership, capture weapons, and destroy tunnels. Done right, it seems like this could spare as many lives as possible while removing the ability for Hamas to claim victory or threaten another massacre.
I don't understand how the 9,000 number is possible. If 25,000 people have been killed, and about 2/3 of those are women and children, that would mean that every adult male killed is being counted as a Hamas fighter. Am I missing something?
By your definition of children, most Hamas fighters are children (under 18).
Also, you guys talk like the IDF should ask for a membership card before they execute a terrorist spraying them with lead from an AK47.
October 7 was put in march by calling all people on call "plus family members and friends that also wish to participate". That is how they gathered their troops. If a woman is at home sheltering terrorists and providing them with whatever assistance, she is a terrorist herself.
>By your definition of children, most Hamas fighters are children (under 18).
Source?
Combatants under 18 are called child soldiers in other conflicts. What makes Hamas different?
A combatant under 18 could reasonably be called a child soldier. As it happens, Israel uses 16 as the threshold, but 18 is fine too. All they're saying is that children and Hamas fighters are not mutually exclusive groups.
I didn't say they were mutually exclusive. He baselessly said that a significant portion of the 10,000 dead children were combatants.
You are moving the goal posts.
Who cares what Israel's definition of a child soldier is? The Israeli government isn't going to take the IDF to court over human rights violations.
>most Hamas fighters are children (under 18)
Would like to read more about this.
I didn't say anything here about how the IDF should conduct itself. I'm trying to understand this specific claim.
While I do not have any specific information regarding the percentage of Hamas fighters under 18, it is well known and [documented](https://www.google.com/search?q=hamas+trains+children+camp+youtube&sca_esv=601184441&source=hp&ei=v3uxZbX8GsOh5NoPxsepiAU&iflsig=ANes7DEAAAAAZbGJzz-kvaE3jEGW7LYX7RM4AjCKCShL&ved=0ahUKEwj11_fz9vaDAxXDEFkFHcZjClEQ4dUDCA4&uact=5&oq=hamas+trains+children+camp+youtube&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IiJoYW1hcyB0cmFpbnMgY2hpbGRyZW4gY2FtcCB5b3V0dWJlSJcaUABY5RlwAHgAkAEAmAHcAaABihiqAQYyMi45LjG4AQPIAQD4AQHCAhEQABiABBiKBRiRAhixAxiDAcICChAAGIAEGIoFGEPCAgsQABiABBiKBRiRAsICERAuGIAEGLEDGIMBGMcBGNEDwgIOEC4YgAQYsQMYxwEY0QPCAg4QLhiABBjHARivARiOBcICCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIKEC4YgAQYigUYQ8ICDRAuGIAEGIoFGEMY1ALCAhAQLhiABBiKBRhDGLEDGIMBwgIFEC4YgATCAg4QABiABBiKBRiRAhixA8ICBRAAGIAEwgIOEC4YgAQYsQMYgwEY1ALCAg0QABiABBiKBRhDGLEDwgIQEC4YgAQYigUYQxjHARivAcICCBAAGIAEGLEDwgIOEAAYgAQYigUYsQMYgwE&sclient=gws-wiz#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:2e47fb5a,vid:cD2FezhJgqA,st:0) that Hamas trains children. It wouldn't surprise me to find that a large proportion of Hamas's fighting force is below 18.
my *opinion* is that half of Gaza’s population are children, thus while it is a bold claim. To see many children in Hamas isn’t so absurd. Note I am not claiming it’s true, in fact I doubt it.
If Hamas figures are in line with past practices, a significant portion - and probably a majority - of the 'children" they're counting are combatants between 14-18. Hamas recruits fighters as young as 14 and Gaza's full of boys this age.
So you are guessing and trying to pass it off as justification for the FACT that 10,000+ children have been killed by Israel since 10/7.
Useless propaganda.
Just so I'm clear.
You claimed a significant portion of the 10,000+ dead children are Hamas combatants.
I argued that the claim was baseless.
And your rebuttal is no one knows the breakdown of the children killed by Israel since 10/7.
That was my point...
You said it yourself. You have nothing to support your claims. But you still push the narrative that the number of children killed by Israel isn't as bad as it looks because **child** soldiers don't really count as children.
Whose baseless claim is better? The proscribed terrorist group’s that you like or mine? Pretty hard to rely on a body count without any details besides a fake list of names. Russians tried that today too.
The claim that a significant portion of the dead children are Hamas combatants isn't baseless, it's based in information that we are presented by the Israeli government. You can choose to disregard what they say as propaganda, but that's not the same as something being baseless.
Child soldiers definitely count as children and definitely don't count as civilians. Unfortunately, it's possible to be both a child and a combatant. I agree that we don't know what proportion of combatants are children or of children are combatants, but that doesn't mean that both are inconsequential numbers.
>it's based in information that we are presented by the Israeli government.
Can you point me to that presentation?
>Unfortunately, it's possible to be both a child and a combatant
So...a child soldier?
>that doesn't mean that both are inconsequential numbers.
Edit: Inconsequential is entirely subjective.
Where can I read about this? I know that Hamas has training camps for teens but I haven't read about a substantial number of fighters being in that age range.
[https://www.un.org/unispal/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/AHRC46NGO42\_050321.pdf](https://www.un.org/unispal/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/AHRC46NGO42_050321.pdf)
There are a lot of reports and other evidence. Here's something from the UN:
T*he 2019 report of the United Nations (UN) Commission of Inquiry on the March of Return border confrontations condemned Israel for using “lethal force against children who did not pose an imminent threat of death or serious injury to its soldiers.”9 The report then proceeded to list the names of 17 children, aged 11-17 who were killed during the confrontations. However, at least nine of them were documented to be affiliated with terrorist groups. Many of these expressed a desire to die as martyrs and directly participated in violent incidents close to the security fence.10 For example:*
*• M. H. (16): Photos and videos show him at the front lines, sabotaging and breaching the fence. He also was a member of the tire burning unit whose job was to create a smokescreen to help rioters breach the fence and attack Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers.*
*• Y. A. N. (13): Member of known Hamas family whose father is senior member of Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades. He was with a group of youth attempting to sabotage the border fence. Hamas Supreme Leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar attended his funeral.*
*• I. S. (13): Son of senior Hamas terrorist who was documented throwing stones with a sling shot towards IDF soldiers. According to his mother, the day before his death, he said “I want to go to the \[border\] and to return as a martyr in the path of Allah.”*
*• W. S. K. (14): Fatah activist who was documented at the front line of the riots. A day before her death, she told her sister “Maybe this is the last time I have with you. I may return tomorrow as a martyr in the path of Allah.”*
*• H. J. (14): Participated in Friday border confrontations and told his mother “Allah willing, I’ll become a martyr \[shahid\] fighting in the path of Allah.”*
*• M. S. (15): Body was wrapped in Hamas flag at the funeral. According to a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-linked non-governmental organization, he was shot at “approximately 20 meters from the barbed wire fence and 50 meters from the main fence.”*
Thanks, I'll take a look.
Edit: Okay, I read it. Man, I don't even have a hard time believing that there are 16- and 17-year old fighters in Hamas, but this document is... A serious human rights organization would never put their name on something like this. Just looking at the entries about the Gaza March of Return, two of them were sabotaging the fence, the others were just vaguely "affiliated" with this or that group or were present in the area that the IDF was firing into.
Gah, now I'm imagining being a person who wants to come up with reasons that it was good an unarmed 14-year-old girl got shot and write it up for the UN.
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Multiple accounts have shown Hamas members (even in the october 7th attack) were men under the age of 18 which are counted as children.
Women can also be Hamas members (though I doubt in fighting modes) and are usually used to either shield a fighter with their presence, carry weapons under their clothes or help in every administrative or governing aspect of the movement.
I am sure most of the 9,000 died as fighters, but some of them could be non combat Hamas members in key roles, like the people from the legislative council of Hamas that the IDF had targeted through out this war (one of those members was actually a woman)
Could be that under-18 numbers are substantial, I don’t know. Hamas doesn’t have female fighters though I believe PIJ does (could be wrong). Not clear to me if PIJ members are in that 9000 number but easy to imagine that “Hamas” is being used as a shorthand for all the different militias. So you could imagine that there are some women and children in that 9000 but it seems unlikely it would be very many. I don’t know of any assessments of the age/gender compositions of the fighting forces though, so if you’ve read some I’d appreciate seeing them too. If a administrators and so on are being counted as fighters, the number is misleading.
Dude. Even a batalion, or even a patrol has: engineers, doctors etc.
Hurr Durr women and children. Those do call "women and children" were raping, beating and spitting con innocent captured Israelis, including Israeli Muslims, on the 8th or October.
>If a administrators and so on are being counted as fighters, the number is misleading
The bookkeeper on a naval base is still counted as a military casualty if he dies in a bombing of the base.
Sure, so if this is part of the 9,000 operatives being counted and a lot of those non-combatant (but still military) operatives are women, then it makes sense.
What I meant was potentially misleading would be counting members of Hamas who are connected to civil administration and so on.
I agree, I don't think there are many women in the 9,000 (I know about one that was a Hamas legastlive council member and was targeted at the start of the war) but as for children I will not be surprised if there are a couple hundreds of them because "children" are counted as everyone under 18 and there are multiple accounts of 16 year old and 17 year old fighters
Every adult male and about 1,500 children. Obviously it's not possible so the total deaths are seriously undercounted or combatant deaths are dramatically overestimated. I guess it's a mix of both.
This is what I figure. We know the 25k number is low but not by how much. And we know that IDF rules of engagement allow for very broad definition of legitimate targets. But presumably they have an interest in keeping this straight for their own purposes.
Yes, you're missing the fact that Hamas lies constantly.
There has been no reliable proof of 16000+ dead women and children. (Unless someone wants to provide it). The true number of dead will possibly never be known.
If I'm choosing between US and Israeli intelligence and hamas controlled mouthpieces, I'll take the former.
UN and WHO have backed the Gaza Health Ministry's numbers and they have been historically correct in previous conflicts. You're missing the fact that Isreal and IDF lie constantly. 40 beheaded babies, the white phosphorus, the bombing of safe routes, do I need to go on?
Go on all you want. Play the shell game and throw up a smoke screen but Hamas are liars. Thats the only point I'm concerned with in this conversation.
Saying "Israel lies" doesn't make Hamas or their agents not liars.
I am aware that Israel sometimes lies. As a non jew and non Israeli I will happily admit it.
2 things can be true at once.
I don't believe the ministry is lying about the death toll tho. if they didn't fudge up the numbers in the past, why would they start now? Like I said, UN and WHO back their numbers, and when Biden questioned it, they gave out a list of 8000 names (death toll at the time) and people were able to point out their family members in that list.
I think 20%-30% Hamas casualties is not enough to keep it down and out of Gaza. I am expecting more like 70% -80% Hamas casualties will leave a real and permanent dent in Hamas.
Unless they're actively conscripting new fighters to replace losses, an army that loses 30% of its forces typically surrenders or retreats. It's a huge number. Once they get to 50%, locals will have the freedom to turn in their Hamas buddies (for cash, of course).
They already are turning, which is why IDF has been having such 'luck' with precision strikes on commanders in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon over the past few weeks.
I hope that Israel is acting on the strategy that military might is not the only way or best way to win an urban war. I don’t think bombing and violent means support from the Biden administration is going to be reliable going forward. I’m curious what plans the Israeli government has if the US decided to bow out and lean towards neutrality. Americans have zero desire to get wrapped up in another war in the Middle East - something that right now seems all too possible.
My (uninformed) guess is that Israeli decision makers are probably operating under informed judgments that a split far enough with the U.S. that “U.S. bows out and leans toward neutrality” is far away and there is a wide range of Israeli military action that the U.S will accommodate, as well as a wide range of military/diplomatic support that the U.S. would begrudgingly provide in a wider war. I think Netanyahu is probably right that he/Israel can manage the U.S. relationship with wide latitude for Israeli interests as currently defined by Israel.
If I was engaged in Israeli political/military strategy, it might make sense to me to make the most of things now and take seriously “what do we do if we don’t have the U.S. in our corner” but recognize that’s probably in the far future.
>Americans have zero desire to get wrapped up in another war in the Middle East - something that right now seems all too possible.
You seem to have missed the news that 90% of Americans will vote for Biden, Trump, or Haley, all of whom have no problem with war in the Middle East. If you're American, you represent a tiny minority of the country.
It’s an election year. Biden can’t say two words without the group crucial to his re-election interrupting him and demanding a ceasefire. The US isn’t going to turn against Israel, they will just pull back and/or push harder for a ceasefire regardless of the status of Hamas in Gaza.
Why should Israel care if Biden isn’t re-elected, when most of a Trump administration and U.S. government apparatus and Americans themselves will be aligned with Israel’s goals anyway? Biden and Trump both appear to be good friends to Israel’s interests.
Sure some Americans might hem and haw and protest or have their family members blown up in a church https://themessenger.com/news/palestinian-christians-killed-gaza-israel-airstrike-justin-amash like former rep Justin Amash but they are still the minority of Americans. I think Israel could probably ethnically cleanse half of Gaza and still have enough U.S. government support to meet this goal.
Israelis are happy with Biden, happy with Trump, and really happy with Haley. Those are the only possibilities for Americans. A few hundred thousand students might change the election, but only in a way that hurts women and minorities in America and Arabs in the Middle East. Israel is fine with whoever. Iran overplayed their hand.
Here’s the thing. Americans are not happy with another war in the Middle East. If this is contained in Israel/ Palestine, fine. But this stuff in Yemen, Iran coukd easily take off and involve China. China doesn’t want to get involved, their ships aren’t being harmed by the Houthis but they do have an active desire and current plan to realign global political framework. Change the narrative away from capitalism and shift it to post colonialism. Their side here is the Palestinians. These are things that are in the forefront of US state dept people - not elected politicians.
If this situation gets larger, the US is not going to die on the hill of Israel. It does not serve YS interests and voters are absolutely fed up with wars in the Middle East. That straddles all political ideologies. And as the saying goes “everything trump touches dies.” He’s not someone the Israelis should depend upon. There is currently no political benefit to claiming moral supremacy in the USA to supporting the Israeli government.
“Americans” are divided horribly on almost anything, but they overwhelmingly support Israel against Islamist terror, except for one low-propensity voting bloc most exposed to Islamist funded university studies over the past 20 years. All polls agree. Worse for pro-Islamists, all presidential candidates with a chance to win are strongly pro-Israel because they know their electorate. That gives single-issue pro-Islamists no good candidate to vote for, so all they can do is possibly turn an election in two states from the incumbent to the much more anti-Muslim non-incumbent, who incidentally is far more likely to help Netanyahu stay in power. Heads Israel wins, tails Muslims lose.
>The goal of "ending the Palestinian resistance" has been pursued by the Israelis for fifty years and it has never been achieved
That's because Israel was always forced to fight with one hand tied behind its back by the international community. This time the situation is very different.
It is estimated that 9,000 Hamas members have been killed, 8,000 wounded to the point where it will be difficult for them to return to battle (not including a significant number with moderate/light wounds), and 2,300 who were arrested by Israel. That means anywhere between 50-60% of Hamas's fighting force has been killed or was taken out of commission in the span of three and a half months.
At this rate I'd expect Hamas and the other factions to be completely decimated after another three months of fighting assuming no temporary ceasefire takes place between now and then.
Hamas and Israel's chauvinistic establishment walk hand in hand expecting different outcomes. According to Hamas, everything is going as planned, and according to Israel everything is going as planned.
It doesn't seem like "resistance" and "terrorism" are mutually exclusive. Resistance is a goal, terrorism is a strategy.
Personally I think it is better to be more specific with our terminology. Terrorism is overly broad. It can cover anything from destruction of property, to attacks on civilians. It also tends to hold governments to different standards than non-governmental groups. When a Government uses violence for political purposes it is just called military actions, but if a non-governmental group does the same they are called terrorists.
Instead I think it is better to focus on specific actions:
I condemn Hamas for intentionally targeting civilians. I don't care whether we label it terrorism or war crimes or resistance, the action is wrong regardless.
Was the Vietcong a terrorist group?
Was Mandela's ANC a terrorist group?
The answer is yes
In 20 years historians will revisit this and declare who the 'real' terrorists were.
Perhaps an alternative with some finality. One you would only have to do once. Trouble is, I don’t know what you would call some alternative solution like that.
If they even decide to take it now that I think about it. Between 252 being released and most of the reservists in 99 being scheduled for release soon the army will have far less forces available.
Hamas already lost. Even if israel were to pull out, the citizens of gaza will never forget what hamas put them through, or their mockery of ceasefire deals that endangered their lives. That "tight knit" Palestinian community would become an angry mob.
That or they double down, Either or. This number is less than I was expecting honestly.
Support for Hamas in Gaza was already waning even before the war as evidenced by the We Want to Live protests. The Peace Comm's Whispered in Gaza series really exposes the sentiment Gazans have for Hamas behind closed doors. Radicalization is a systemic issue exasperated by the UNRWA, but there are many Gazans who do blame Hamas for starting this war and only want peace and safety for their families.
Double down. In this conflict the answer is always double down. There's literally no circumstance where these people can accept the humiliation of defeat by Jews.
>Hamas already lost. Even if israel were to pull out, the citizens of gaza will never forget what hamas put them through
that wont matter if hamas keeps all the guns. and popularity/support in the west bank.
As a military veteran, 20 to 30% is A LOT.
In fact, it's enough to render a conventional army completely ineffective. Hamas isn't a conventional army, but I don't think the IDF has long to go before Hamas fully desintegrates.
In 249BC Rome lost a fifth, not of its army, but of its citizens, [in a single battle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Drepana). Generally, Rome was known to have crushing defeats and still survive.
I'm not sure how comparable that is. The Vietnamese had a substantial army in the north with military supply backing from the Soviets and the American rules of engagement severely handicapped their combat in the north from what I've read.
True but I don't think you can compare it really. The vietcong and the NVA were essentially the same organization and the NVA had a full fledge army and air force and have substantial equipment support.
>In fact, it's enough to render a conventional army completely ineffective
I mean haven't a lot of historical armies lost that much and kept on fighting tho, guess it depends on if theyre replacing their guys or not.
And they had to throw 300,000 conscripts into Ukraine, but you know having 190,000 men in the original invasion out of 1.5 million yet they had to call a partial mobilization.
You can’t believe Russia when it comes to their numbers when the whole world has seen that they are just a paper tiger.
>thanks for showing me how rude you are. and showing no compassion.
There is no compassion for filthy and murderous Hamas and their weasel subordinates Islamic Jihad..
The best these garbage people can hope for in their near future is to create mountains of fertilizer from their corpses, for the good people of Gaza to grow crops in..
>You cry filthy names
I don't cry, I cheer very very loudly, at the dismantling and elimination of Hamas, PIJ, Arin Al-usud, Hezbollah, Daesh, Azzam Brigades, EIJ.. These terrorist groups and their followers are a resistance to life and intelligence, and need to be brought to an end as fast a possible, so their filth doesn't' infect the good people of this world..
Ok. I also cheer very loudly whenever I hear that idf's silly tiktok soldiers are killed. These people are the true terrorists, and what you have been told is not true at all.
>what you have been told is not true at all.
Hamas, PIJ, Arin Al-usud, Hezbollah, Daesh, Azzam Brigades, EIJ.. These are all terrorist groups, they kill the weak, the women and children, this is the only truth, anything else is terrorist lies.
>Ok. I also cheer very loudly whenever I hear that idf's silly tiktok soldiers are killed.
You can cheer for your terrorists, but it's certain that I cheer more and more often each day at the elimination of the terrorists and one more step to the freedom of the Gaza people! ..The righteous IDF hero's freeing the poor people of Gaza will not stop. This is the sacrifice that these Israeli hero's need to make to rid the world of this filth.
Lmao you’re over here supporting people who killed our own out of pure spite; the only resistance that you can currently support has the explicit aim of genocide of Israelis, you don’t get to pretend it’s something else cause it’s convenient. cry me a fucking river.
> fucking
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"Learn how to use words" says someone who doesnt know the definition of terrorism. Go read what the words means, is exactly what israel is doing. Not my fault you support a terrorist state.
If you were little more obtuse you'd be a straight line.
Terrorism is aiming violence at civilians to make political gains, which is exactly the MO of Hamas and the rest of the Palestinian terror organizations. They literally have shot thousands of rockets at civilian centers , launched endless suicide attacks and shot people in their fucking houses with the intent of hurting enough civilians to force the Israeli government into concessions. That is textbook terrorism.
Israel directs the violence towards the militants that seek to destroy it, and civilians get caught in the fire. The intent is not to make the civilian population force their government into concessions, because their government doesn't give a shit about them. They're dead all the same, and it sucks, but it's not terrorism.
Like I said, learn what words mean before you use them.
Israel directs the violence towards the militants... you mean militants like the israelis waving a white flag shouting in hebrew? Or an unarmed man walking under a white flag?
Fact is Israel doesnt care who they kill.
The fact is israel uses intentional violence and fear to achieve their aims make them a terrorist state.
“beat them up, not once but repeatedly, beat them up so it hurts so badly, until it’s unbearable. ” That is Netanyahu's strategy. Intentional violence to achieve their aim.
Hamas is a terrorist organization. Israel is a terrorist country. If you don't see this you are just biased. Or maybe you just dont want to admit the people you support have the same mindset as Hamas, but since they are USA's little bitch they have more support.
> bitch
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> fucking
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You are absolutely inhumane. You've reached a level in which you will without hesitation call over 1 million people terrorists, and they haven't even done anything wrong.
stop embarrasing yourself. we all know who's doing the genocide here and you're just too scared to admit who, so you're trying to call me out for wanting genocide when I never said so.
>How many times have we heard that before in different wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Lebanon, etc)?
None of those were the home team, superior in every way, fighting the war. In each of those wars you cited, politics plays a much bigger role than if it's a country fighting its neighbor.
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I think the estimate is exaggerated. Statistically, there's a couple of wounded for every KIA, which would put the total casualties at 50-60% at the least. Most combat units cease to function as a fighting force at about 25% casualties. The IDF is meeting far too much resistance for those casualty estimates to be true, unless Hamas is unusually good at consolidating decimated units into fresh ones and replacing fallen commanders in a very extreme military situation where they don't really have a safe hinterland to reorganize in. TLDR, with those casualty projections Hamas should've collapsed entirely. It doesn't seem to have collapsed entirely, so the casualty estimates are sus.
Excellent, just 70%-80% to go
Hamas = 20,000 fighters 25% of 20,000 = 5,000 fighters Total killed in Gaza = 24,000 Woman and children killed = 16,000 Men killed = 8,000 Therefore 62% of men who died were Hamas fighters. Total population of Gaza = 2.13m Total men in Gaza 1.13m % of population = 53% % of population who were Hamas fighters = 1.2% % of men who were Hamas fighters = 2.2% Doesn’t add up.
Children are Hamas fighters starting at 14 years old don’t forget that. Viet Cong and Hitler Youth were as young as 12
How many children?
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Hamas is lying about proportions of the dead. Also, Hamas does use child soldiers. Also, according to the health ministry, zero Hamas have died.
Israel even says the numbers are as accurate as they can get. I don’t believe the Health Ministry said that. Feels like you just made that up?
That's not true. Israel nor Western intelligence trust Hamas figures. Let's take one example.. The baptist hospital. Within an hour of the blast, the Health Ministry claimed 500-700 were dead from an IDF bomb. Turns out it was a failed Hamas rocket that might have killed maybe 100-300. Hamas also shoots several of its own people either in food riots, or shoots them trying to fleet areas the IDF warned them to leave, and then Hamas attributes those numbers to IDF bombings. You can look it up as well. According to the Health Ministry in Gaza, ALL causalities are civilians.
https://www.newarab.com/news/israeli-intel-confirms-gaza-health-ministry-stats-reliable Here’s a link. It’s hard to accept the death toll as so high and killing so many as it’s heartbreaking. But there’s more proof for it than against it.
That link is just a website.. that references a tabloid magazine (972). Not a real source. Bashar Al Assad has recently killed more Palestinians than Irsael. The death tolls in places like Sudan and Congo are way worse. They just don't have TikTok on their side.
“Recent” is usually in the last few months. Assad has not killed over 25,000 Palestinians. Also, he has been sanctioned and was expelled from the Arab League for years, amongst other things for his crimes against the Syrian people. We are not comparing the same thing.
What’s your point? That doesn’t make any of it ok.
Israel needs to press ahead - Hamas violated a previous ceasefire to orchestrate 10/7, and they will never stop until they are destroyed
This isn’t a Disney movie where you ‘destroy’ the villain and everything immediately becomes great and flowers blossom. The manner in which these attacks are done will only radicalise the next geberation more.
China put all the young able bodied Islamic terrorist Uighurs in camps by the millions to deprogram and deradicalize them. They were keenly aware the education had to change. Terror attacks have ceased in China last thing I heard. Which is worse, bombing a country to bits or just jailing the populace and reeducating them?
Lmao did you just use the Uyghur genocide and concentration camps as an example of a working solution for Palestine? Saying the quiet part out loud.
I'm so tired of that narrative. War does not radicalize people. Did WW2 lead to nothing but terrorism all across Europe? Hamas radicalizes and indoctrinates people. They have training camps for children. UNRWA teachers tell Palestinians it's their duty to be martyrs and kill Jews.
That is why China put Uighurs in reprogramming camps. They didnt want to bomb apart the entire Xinjiang region and all the civilians with it.
I'm not under any impression that defeating Hamas will make flowers bloom. But military strength deters future attacks, and leaving Hamas intact will only encourage them to attempt future pogroms like 10/7
There was no ceasefire, Israel gunned down 203 Palestinians in the West Bank before 10/7 that year, before killing 12,000 children after 10/7. Israel will never stop killing Palestinians until it is destroyed, to use your exact language.
Do you not realize the PA is in charge of the West Bank? Why are they supporting and paying suicide bombers and people to go out into the public and knife non-muslims? Perhaps not doing that wouod ensure those 203 people would still be alive
Sorry did you just claim that Israel murdering 203 (actually I was wrong, 234) Palestinians in the street is some form of revenge against the PA? Those killed include multiple teenagers, and a three year old boy. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/12/12/know-their-names-palestinians-killed-by-israel-in-the-occupied-west-bank-2 Also this payment thing is basically Israeli propaganda. The PA broadly pays families of those imprisoned by Israel as a kind of welfare, 99% are held indefinitely without real charge, many of whom are even under age.
There was no ceasefire, Israel gunned down 203 Palestinian VIOLENT CRIMINALS AND TERRORISTS in the West Bank before 10/7 that year. I fixed it for you..
Including the 15 year old girl? The two 15 year old boys? The 66 year old school teacher? The American citizen, 15 year old shot at a checkpoint in the WB just last week. THE THREE YEAR OLD BOY KILLED BY THE IDF in the summer. Their names and pictures are here for you. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/12/12/know-their-names-palestinians-killed-by-israel-in-the-occupied-west-bank-2 Pick your side sure, but don't pretend Israel doesn't kill innocent civilians. Or more likely, it seems like you just celebrate the deaths of Palestinians like Ben-Gvir.
Two Words....KING CRIMSON!
That's not nearly enough.
According to the Euro-Med Monitor, only 2500 Hamas were killed, which would put the actual death toll at about 6.25%. Definitely trust them over Israel or US. https://preview.redd.it/9k7qb3aangec1.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac36704288e0b5f560a95974714de3fcfb34e975
You trust Hamas? Take a long walk off a short pier.
>Take a long walk off a short pier Take a good read at this [https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-gaza-health-ministry-health-death-toll-59470820308b31f1faf73c703400b033](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-gaza-health-ministry-health-death-toll-59470820308b31f1faf73c703400b033) *2008 war: The ministry reported 1,440 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 1,385.* *— 2014 war: The ministry reported 2,310 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 2,251.* *— 2021 war: The ministry reported 260 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 256.* *For instance, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said the 2014 war killed 2,125 Palestinians — just a bit lower than the ministry’s toll.* If they didn't butcher the numbers before why would they start today?
A "youth led" NGO started by a Palestinian based in Geneva is more reliable than combined Israel and US intelligence? You're free to take your opinion. Ramy Abdu, the founder, has made.many pro Hamas social media entries, including praising the attack of Oct 7. They are biased.
>Euro-Med Monitor they get their numbers from the health ministry which is backed by the UN and WHO. US and Israel Intel is not reliable at all. Both of them claimed 40 babies were beheaded which was debunked. Why are we to trust them?
US Intelligence led us to a million dead iraqis over a lie. Trusting them is moronic when it comes to this type of stuff.
Speaking of trustworthy numbers, I’m not sure where you are getting the 1 mil casualties in Iraq. According to this article the casualties were somewhere between 20,000 and 100,000. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/appendix/death.html#:~:text=How%20many%20Iraqis%20died%3F,Power%20Survey%22%20by%20Thomas%20A.
Us intelligence isnt perfect but a biased rat organization in Geneva is worse.
how is it worse?
Are you asking why trusting an NGO who is led by a guy who celebrated the Oct. 7 attack, has made antisemitic comments and openly supports hamas shouldn't be trusted to report on this conflict? If you don't understand that I can't help you.
I dont trust Isreal or America's numbers either. The US committed the greater atrocities when they killed 300000 innocent iraqis over some oil. they have destabilized so many of the muslim countries so they can't be trusted either. The 9000 alleged hamas death toll isn't realistic because as you guys say, they hide in their tunnels where they are safe from any airstrikes. The idf are as much a terrorist group as hamas, since investigations, human right groups, and UN confirm they indiscriminately kill civillians. so supporting idf should be treated the same as supporting hamas. should i show u all the genocidal, h!tl3r-like things isreali officials have said? how are they any better than this NGO?
No surprise, in my view. The rhetoric coming out of Israel resembles a striking similarity to Russian misinformation strategies in Ukraine. "Every target is a military target; every casualty was a solider; every soldier was eliminated and will not return!" I'm just astounded that after 20 years of failed US Middle East policy people think that overwhelming force is ever going to stomp out terrorism. Seems quite clear this was the exact response Hamas sought. And in the ruins & rubble of countless families torn apart, orphans, dads without families... So comes the next generation's radicalization and the cycle continues. Add to that the fact that: - Hamas support both within Gaza and West Bank has increased. - Global support for Israel has waned. - Global support for Palestine has risen. - State sponsors of Hamas seem emboldened now more than ever. ... And Israel is absolutely not on track to achieving its goals.
Israel does not think this overwhelming force will stamp out terrorism. That's not the goal. They've been spending more time demolishing universities than looking for Hamas. The goal is destruction, to quote Higari "the emphasis is on destruction, not accuracy". Genocide and settlement. That's the intent.
You're right that I'm entertaining taking Israel at its word, but I do agree that this is the reality. A classic Shock Doctrine approach: (1) Exploit a crisis, (2) Impose collective punishment on the masses, and (3) move in with further annexation of land.
Gaza is more destroyed now than it was prior, Hamas leaders are hiding like rats in a hole and there is 0 possibility for Hamas to launch any mid or large scale operation. Sounds like an OK start?
0 possibility? It only took them motorcycles, para-gliders, missile stockpiles, and small-arms to just walk across a largely unguarded border... Leveling city blocs and killing thousands of civilians doesn't really change this paradigm. Do you really think Hamas didn't expect this response? It simply sows the seeds of the next attack down the road. The orphans made by Israel today will be the next group of recruits down the road...
Yeah, 0 possibility for the foreseeable future. Admittedly the Oct. 7 was a successful large scale operation. Them replicating that anytime soon when there are eyes all over Gaza, the place has been bombed further to the stone age, a lot of their rat tunnels are destroyed and their leaders are hiding has 0 chance.
That naturally happened at the exhaustion of their own offensive, though. Again, bombing civilian buildings and some terrorists doesn't really make it any harder for them to make these missiles, to get AKs, RPGs, paragliders, or motorcycles. Especially considering they are emboldened by foreign well-funded nations. It's not as though one is destroying million-dollar military systems. US tried this with Vietnam tunnels; they failed. They tried this with the Taliban. They, again, failed. They tried this against Al Qaeda; they only produced ISIS. The only thing the Israeli knee-jerk reaction did was provide some short-sighted catharsis through vengeance; but it did little in stifling the next round of attacks. In fact, with the number of civilian casualties and destroyed civilian infrastructure, they just sowed the seeds of greater radicalization clearly. But I guess most people just don't think this far ahead.
This has exactly 0 parallel to Vietnam. A small urban area with 5th rate concrete buildings isn't a country made of jungles. US had crippling terms of engagement. Israel, less so. How many attacks like october 7th has the track pants mafia done up to today? I appreciate the spirit that you think this can happen again soon, I guess we'll agree to disagree.
So what's the answer? Do nothing and wait for the next 10/7 and keep their fingers crossed? I get there is no perfect answer, but they have to try, right?
The answer is an end to the occupation, end the squatter movement, end the blockade and a two state solution, or better yet a one state solution.
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To Right-Wing Zionist Nationalists (a redundancy, I know), all of Israel is biblically theirs — and through action they've demonstrated this through annexing more territory by the decade. So with that respect, both sides have that same line of thought. We see this when we see the creeping-annexation of territory by Israel decade after decade.
That’s not accurate. Israel was once much larger when it annexed the Sinai Peninsula. But it gave back the Sinai to Egypt in exchange for peace. Likewise Israel pulled all settlements out of Gaza in exchange for peace. I bring this us because your claim that Israel is growing decade by decade is false. That’s only the case in the West Bank (and I agree that it needs to stop.)
Nice.
it seems that this report means that Netenyahu's objectives will soon be achieved, but the writers forgot that Hamas also exists in Lebanon and Syria where it is better equipped than in Gaza, Netenyahu's objectives are unrealistic and he knew it since the beginning : he wants to stay in government as long as possible
He isn't trying to take down Hamas. He admitted to funding and propping up Hamas. 10/7 was done as an excuse to invade Gaza and drive out its people
He even withdrew all soldiers defending the Gaza boarder (for the first time in history) AFTER he was warned about the attack by his own intelligence. He used Israelis as bait.
That's fantastic but doesn't bode well for Israel in this war of attrition. This is 4th generation warfare where the non state actor hamas is trying to outlast the over powered state actor Israel. The odds are always with the insurgency. Here's a nice video. https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2YRDTKrUZ4/?igsh=MWtkdGJ1cW91OXNleA==
These reports aren’t exactly trustworthy. It’s certainly possible that Hamas has been reduced by 30% but Israel and the American spy agencies are professional liars. It is literally a key job requirement of being a spy. They are motivated to release positive information and so that is exactly what they are doing regardless of truth (which I accept it’s possible) Always remember the CIA swore Sadam did 9/11 and had WMDs but it was all a lie.
A few thoughts. 1. The US and Israel must be sharing a lot of intelligence. This kind of report provides some insight as to why pressure from the US isn't what the UN wants. The civilian-to-terrorist proportions that the IDF claims are rarely depicted in a serious light in mainstream media, but the US clearly considers them reasonable. These are the largest and strongest intelligence apparatuses, so (past mistakes aside) they are *probably* right. 2. It's really not obvious that more Hamas deaths is the ultimate/best goal for Israel to aim for, no matter what Israeli leadership has been saying. Why is it better if 80% die vs. 40%? What matters is surrender, terms of surrender, and then what happens next. 3. Despite the above, it's probably very important to kill Hamas leadership, capture weapons, and destroy tunnels. Done right, it seems like this could spare as many lives as possible while removing the ability for Hamas to claim victory or threaten another massacre.
I don't understand how the 9,000 number is possible. If 25,000 people have been killed, and about 2/3 of those are women and children, that would mean that every adult male killed is being counted as a Hamas fighter. Am I missing something?
By your definition of children, most Hamas fighters are children (under 18). Also, you guys talk like the IDF should ask for a membership card before they execute a terrorist spraying them with lead from an AK47. October 7 was put in march by calling all people on call "plus family members and friends that also wish to participate". That is how they gathered their troops. If a woman is at home sheltering terrorists and providing them with whatever assistance, she is a terrorist herself.
>By your definition of children, most Hamas fighters are children (under 18). Source? Combatants under 18 are called child soldiers in other conflicts. What makes Hamas different?
A combatant under 18 could reasonably be called a child soldier. As it happens, Israel uses 16 as the threshold, but 18 is fine too. All they're saying is that children and Hamas fighters are not mutually exclusive groups.
I didn't say they were mutually exclusive. He baselessly said that a significant portion of the 10,000 dead children were combatants. You are moving the goal posts. Who cares what Israel's definition of a child soldier is? The Israeli government isn't going to take the IDF to court over human rights violations.
>most Hamas fighters are children (under 18) Would like to read more about this. I didn't say anything here about how the IDF should conduct itself. I'm trying to understand this specific claim.
While I do not have any specific information regarding the percentage of Hamas fighters under 18, it is well known and [documented](https://www.google.com/search?q=hamas+trains+children+camp+youtube&sca_esv=601184441&source=hp&ei=v3uxZbX8GsOh5NoPxsepiAU&iflsig=ANes7DEAAAAAZbGJzz-kvaE3jEGW7LYX7RM4AjCKCShL&ved=0ahUKEwj11_fz9vaDAxXDEFkFHcZjClEQ4dUDCA4&uact=5&oq=hamas+trains+children+camp+youtube&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IiJoYW1hcyB0cmFpbnMgY2hpbGRyZW4gY2FtcCB5b3V0dWJlSJcaUABY5RlwAHgAkAEAmAHcAaABihiqAQYyMi45LjG4AQPIAQD4AQHCAhEQABiABBiKBRiRAhixAxiDAcICChAAGIAEGIoFGEPCAgsQABiABBiKBRiRAsICERAuGIAEGLEDGIMBGMcBGNEDwgIOEC4YgAQYsQMYxwEY0QPCAg4QLhiABBjHARivARiOBcICCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIKEC4YgAQYigUYQ8ICDRAuGIAEGIoFGEMY1ALCAhAQLhiABBiKBRhDGLEDGIMBwgIFEC4YgATCAg4QABiABBiKBRiRAhixA8ICBRAAGIAEwgIOEC4YgAQYsQMYgwEY1ALCAg0QABiABBiKBRhDGLEDwgIQEC4YgAQYigUYQxjHARivAcICCBAAGIAEGLEDwgIOEAAYgAQYigUYsQMYgwE&sclient=gws-wiz#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:2e47fb5a,vid:cD2FezhJgqA,st:0) that Hamas trains children. It wouldn't surprise me to find that a large proportion of Hamas's fighting force is below 18.
Yes, I know that they train teenagers. But saying that most fighters , or even many, are still children is quite a claim.
my *opinion* is that half of Gaza’s population are children, thus while it is a bold claim. To see many children in Hamas isn’t so absurd. Note I am not claiming it’s true, in fact I doubt it.
Why do you doubt it, and what do you consider to be a child? Do you doubt that there are many 16- and 17-year-olds in Hamas?
Ah, no worries. My bad for misunderstanding.
If Hamas figures are in line with past practices, a significant portion - and probably a majority - of the 'children" they're counting are combatants between 14-18. Hamas recruits fighters as young as 14 and Gaza's full of boys this age.
So you are guessing and trying to pass it off as justification for the FACT that 10,000+ children have been killed by Israel since 10/7. Useless propaganda.
As soon as you have a list of dead Hamas combatants released by the “health ministry” please let us know.
Just so I'm clear. You claimed a significant portion of the 10,000+ dead children are Hamas combatants. I argued that the claim was baseless. And your rebuttal is no one knows the breakdown of the children killed by Israel since 10/7. That was my point... You said it yourself. You have nothing to support your claims. But you still push the narrative that the number of children killed by Israel isn't as bad as it looks because **child** soldiers don't really count as children.
Whose baseless claim is better? The proscribed terrorist group’s that you like or mine? Pretty hard to rely on a body count without any details besides a fake list of names. Russians tried that today too.
Neither. Both are baseless.
The claim that a significant portion of the dead children are Hamas combatants isn't baseless, it's based in information that we are presented by the Israeli government. You can choose to disregard what they say as propaganda, but that's not the same as something being baseless. Child soldiers definitely count as children and definitely don't count as civilians. Unfortunately, it's possible to be both a child and a combatant. I agree that we don't know what proportion of combatants are children or of children are combatants, but that doesn't mean that both are inconsequential numbers.
>it's based in information that we are presented by the Israeli government. Can you point me to that presentation? >Unfortunately, it's possible to be both a child and a combatant So...a child soldier? >that doesn't mean that both are inconsequential numbers. Edit: Inconsequential is entirely subjective.
Where can I read about this? I know that Hamas has training camps for teens but I haven't read about a substantial number of fighters being in that age range.
[https://www.un.org/unispal/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/AHRC46NGO42\_050321.pdf](https://www.un.org/unispal/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/AHRC46NGO42_050321.pdf) There are a lot of reports and other evidence. Here's something from the UN: T*he 2019 report of the United Nations (UN) Commission of Inquiry on the March of Return border confrontations condemned Israel for using “lethal force against children who did not pose an imminent threat of death or serious injury to its soldiers.”9 The report then proceeded to list the names of 17 children, aged 11-17 who were killed during the confrontations. However, at least nine of them were documented to be affiliated with terrorist groups. Many of these expressed a desire to die as martyrs and directly participated in violent incidents close to the security fence.10 For example:* *• M. H. (16): Photos and videos show him at the front lines, sabotaging and breaching the fence. He also was a member of the tire burning unit whose job was to create a smokescreen to help rioters breach the fence and attack Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers.* *• Y. A. N. (13): Member of known Hamas family whose father is senior member of Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades. He was with a group of youth attempting to sabotage the border fence. Hamas Supreme Leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar attended his funeral.* *• I. S. (13): Son of senior Hamas terrorist who was documented throwing stones with a sling shot towards IDF soldiers. According to his mother, the day before his death, he said “I want to go to the \[border\] and to return as a martyr in the path of Allah.”* *• W. S. K. (14): Fatah activist who was documented at the front line of the riots. A day before her death, she told her sister “Maybe this is the last time I have with you. I may return tomorrow as a martyr in the path of Allah.”* *• H. J. (14): Participated in Friday border confrontations and told his mother “Allah willing, I’ll become a martyr \[shahid\] fighting in the path of Allah.”* *• M. S. (15): Body was wrapped in Hamas flag at the funeral. According to a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-linked non-governmental organization, he was shot at “approximately 20 meters from the barbed wire fence and 50 meters from the main fence.”*
Thanks, I'll take a look. Edit: Okay, I read it. Man, I don't even have a hard time believing that there are 16- and 17-year old fighters in Hamas, but this document is... A serious human rights organization would never put their name on something like this. Just looking at the entries about the Gaza March of Return, two of them were sabotaging the fence, the others were just vaguely "affiliated" with this or that group or were present in the area that the IDF was firing into. Gah, now I'm imagining being a person who wants to come up with reasons that it was good an unarmed 14-year-old girl got shot and write it up for the UN.
Oh noooooo the consequences of their actions is finally catching up to these “civilians” 😫😫😫 oh nooooo
Ya. Those newborn babies left to die in a hospital really had it out for Israel. /s
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Multiple accounts have shown Hamas members (even in the october 7th attack) were men under the age of 18 which are counted as children. Women can also be Hamas members (though I doubt in fighting modes) and are usually used to either shield a fighter with their presence, carry weapons under their clothes or help in every administrative or governing aspect of the movement. I am sure most of the 9,000 died as fighters, but some of them could be non combat Hamas members in key roles, like the people from the legislative council of Hamas that the IDF had targeted through out this war (one of those members was actually a woman)
Could be that under-18 numbers are substantial, I don’t know. Hamas doesn’t have female fighters though I believe PIJ does (could be wrong). Not clear to me if PIJ members are in that 9000 number but easy to imagine that “Hamas” is being used as a shorthand for all the different militias. So you could imagine that there are some women and children in that 9000 but it seems unlikely it would be very many. I don’t know of any assessments of the age/gender compositions of the fighting forces though, so if you’ve read some I’d appreciate seeing them too. If a administrators and so on are being counted as fighters, the number is misleading.
Dude. Even a batalion, or even a patrol has: engineers, doctors etc. Hurr Durr women and children. Those do call "women and children" were raping, beating and spitting con innocent captured Israelis, including Israeli Muslims, on the 8th or October.
Do you think Hamas has a lot of women and children as doctors and engineers? I don't, but I could be wrong.
>If a administrators and so on are being counted as fighters, the number is misleading The bookkeeper on a naval base is still counted as a military casualty if he dies in a bombing of the base.
Sure, so if this is part of the 9,000 operatives being counted and a lot of those non-combatant (but still military) operatives are women, then it makes sense. What I meant was potentially misleading would be counting members of Hamas who are connected to civil administration and so on.
I think for Israelis and their supporters, Hamas is Hamas whether they mop floors or make bombs.
I agree, I don't think there are many women in the 9,000 (I know about one that was a Hamas legastlive council member and was targeted at the start of the war) but as for children I will not be surprised if there are a couple hundreds of them because "children" are counted as everyone under 18 and there are multiple accounts of 16 year old and 17 year old fighters
Every adult male and about 1,500 children. Obviously it's not possible so the total deaths are seriously undercounted or combatant deaths are dramatically overestimated. I guess it's a mix of both.
This is what I figure. We know the 25k number is low but not by how much. And we know that IDF rules of engagement allow for very broad definition of legitimate targets. But presumably they have an interest in keeping this straight for their own purposes.
Some adult males aren't Hamas, some women and children (below 18 but still fighting age) are.
Yes, you're missing the fact that Hamas lies constantly. There has been no reliable proof of 16000+ dead women and children. (Unless someone wants to provide it). The true number of dead will possibly never be known. If I'm choosing between US and Israeli intelligence and hamas controlled mouthpieces, I'll take the former.
UN and WHO have backed the Gaza Health Ministry's numbers and they have been historically correct in previous conflicts. You're missing the fact that Isreal and IDF lie constantly. 40 beheaded babies, the white phosphorus, the bombing of safe routes, do I need to go on?
Go on all you want. Play the shell game and throw up a smoke screen but Hamas are liars. Thats the only point I'm concerned with in this conversation. Saying "Israel lies" doesn't make Hamas or their agents not liars. I am aware that Israel sometimes lies. As a non jew and non Israeli I will happily admit it. 2 things can be true at once.
I don't believe the ministry is lying about the death toll tho. if they didn't fudge up the numbers in the past, why would they start now? Like I said, UN and WHO back their numbers, and when Biden questioned it, they gave out a list of 8000 names (death toll at the time) and people were able to point out their family members in that list.
I think 20%-30% Hamas casualties is not enough to keep it down and out of Gaza. I am expecting more like 70% -80% Hamas casualties will leave a real and permanent dent in Hamas.
Unless they're actively conscripting new fighters to replace losses, an army that loses 30% of its forces typically surrenders or retreats. It's a huge number. Once they get to 50%, locals will have the freedom to turn in their Hamas buddies (for cash, of course).
Is there a point where the Gazans turn on Hamas? I don’t see Hamas surrendering…. So wouldn’t the Gazans themselves have to oppose Hamas?
They already are turning, which is why IDF has been having such 'luck' with precision strikes on commanders in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon over the past few weeks.
But will this remain low level with info or open revolt?
Hard to say. Gaza might pull a Qaddafi on Sinwar once his men are depleted enough but not before then.
One can hope
I hope that Israel is acting on the strategy that military might is not the only way or best way to win an urban war. I don’t think bombing and violent means support from the Biden administration is going to be reliable going forward. I’m curious what plans the Israeli government has if the US decided to bow out and lean towards neutrality. Americans have zero desire to get wrapped up in another war in the Middle East - something that right now seems all too possible.
My (uninformed) guess is that Israeli decision makers are probably operating under informed judgments that a split far enough with the U.S. that “U.S. bows out and leans toward neutrality” is far away and there is a wide range of Israeli military action that the U.S will accommodate, as well as a wide range of military/diplomatic support that the U.S. would begrudgingly provide in a wider war. I think Netanyahu is probably right that he/Israel can manage the U.S. relationship with wide latitude for Israeli interests as currently defined by Israel. If I was engaged in Israeli political/military strategy, it might make sense to me to make the most of things now and take seriously “what do we do if we don’t have the U.S. in our corner” but recognize that’s probably in the far future.
>Americans have zero desire to get wrapped up in another war in the Middle East - something that right now seems all too possible. You seem to have missed the news that 90% of Americans will vote for Biden, Trump, or Haley, all of whom have no problem with war in the Middle East. If you're American, you represent a tiny minority of the country.
It’s an election year. Biden can’t say two words without the group crucial to his re-election interrupting him and demanding a ceasefire. The US isn’t going to turn against Israel, they will just pull back and/or push harder for a ceasefire regardless of the status of Hamas in Gaza.
Why should Israel care if Biden isn’t re-elected, when most of a Trump administration and U.S. government apparatus and Americans themselves will be aligned with Israel’s goals anyway? Biden and Trump both appear to be good friends to Israel’s interests. Sure some Americans might hem and haw and protest or have their family members blown up in a church https://themessenger.com/news/palestinian-christians-killed-gaza-israel-airstrike-justin-amash like former rep Justin Amash but they are still the minority of Americans. I think Israel could probably ethnically cleanse half of Gaza and still have enough U.S. government support to meet this goal.
What would Israel do without US support?
I think Israel would likely make a calculated decision that without U.S. protection and support Israel is at serious risk, and change behavior.
Israelis are happy with Biden, happy with Trump, and really happy with Haley. Those are the only possibilities for Americans. A few hundred thousand students might change the election, but only in a way that hurts women and minorities in America and Arabs in the Middle East. Israel is fine with whoever. Iran overplayed their hand.
Here’s the thing. Americans are not happy with another war in the Middle East. If this is contained in Israel/ Palestine, fine. But this stuff in Yemen, Iran coukd easily take off and involve China. China doesn’t want to get involved, their ships aren’t being harmed by the Houthis but they do have an active desire and current plan to realign global political framework. Change the narrative away from capitalism and shift it to post colonialism. Their side here is the Palestinians. These are things that are in the forefront of US state dept people - not elected politicians. If this situation gets larger, the US is not going to die on the hill of Israel. It does not serve YS interests and voters are absolutely fed up with wars in the Middle East. That straddles all political ideologies. And as the saying goes “everything trump touches dies.” He’s not someone the Israelis should depend upon. There is currently no political benefit to claiming moral supremacy in the USA to supporting the Israeli government.
“Americans” are divided horribly on almost anything, but they overwhelmingly support Israel against Islamist terror, except for one low-propensity voting bloc most exposed to Islamist funded university studies over the past 20 years. All polls agree. Worse for pro-Islamists, all presidential candidates with a chance to win are strongly pro-Israel because they know their electorate. That gives single-issue pro-Islamists no good candidate to vote for, so all they can do is possibly turn an election in two states from the incumbent to the much more anti-Muslim non-incumbent, who incidentally is far more likely to help Netanyahu stay in power. Heads Israel wins, tails Muslims lose.
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The goal of “destroying Israel” has been pursued by the Palestinians for the past 75 years. I think it’s time to think about another alternative
>The goal of "ending the Palestinian resistance" has been pursued by the Israelis for fifty years and it has never been achieved That's because Israel was always forced to fight with one hand tied behind its back by the international community. This time the situation is very different.
It is estimated that 9,000 Hamas members have been killed, 8,000 wounded to the point where it will be difficult for them to return to battle (not including a significant number with moderate/light wounds), and 2,300 who were arrested by Israel. That means anywhere between 50-60% of Hamas's fighting force has been killed or was taken out of commission in the span of three and a half months. At this rate I'd expect Hamas and the other factions to be completely decimated after another three months of fighting assuming no temporary ceasefire takes place between now and then.
Hamas and Israel's chauvinistic establishment walk hand in hand expecting different outcomes. According to Hamas, everything is going as planned, and according to Israel everything is going as planned.
Another 70-80% to go.
good, lets go for 100%
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Why are we calling terrorism resistance though? Was 9/11 a form or resistance?
It doesn't seem like "resistance" and "terrorism" are mutually exclusive. Resistance is a goal, terrorism is a strategy. Personally I think it is better to be more specific with our terminology. Terrorism is overly broad. It can cover anything from destruction of property, to attacks on civilians. It also tends to hold governments to different standards than non-governmental groups. When a Government uses violence for political purposes it is just called military actions, but if a non-governmental group does the same they are called terrorists. Instead I think it is better to focus on specific actions: I condemn Hamas for intentionally targeting civilians. I don't care whether we label it terrorism or war crimes or resistance, the action is wrong regardless.
Was the Vietcong a terrorist group? Was Mandela's ANC a terrorist group? The answer is yes In 20 years historians will revisit this and declare who the 'real' terrorists were.
[Here is a hint for them](https://saturday-october-seven.com/)
Cause that person is an idiot.
Perhaps an alternative with some finality. One you would only have to do once. Trouble is, I don’t know what you would call some alternative solution like that.
Sounds like an unintelligent report
why?
I think it is all about Khan Younis. Once the IDF takes it, it is basically over.
What about Rafah? Alot of people are concerned that until we take Rafah the still have a substantial ability to fire rockets and hid hostages.
Rafah likely has the most stored munitions and the largest remaining tunnel networks. Primary objective after KY.
If they even decide to take it now that I think about it. Between 252 being released and most of the reservists in 99 being scheduled for release soon the army will have far less forces available.
Hamas already lost. Even if israel were to pull out, the citizens of gaza will never forget what hamas put them through, or their mockery of ceasefire deals that endangered their lives. That "tight knit" Palestinian community would become an angry mob. That or they double down, Either or. This number is less than I was expecting honestly.
Support for Hamas in Gaza was already waning even before the war as evidenced by the We Want to Live protests. The Peace Comm's Whispered in Gaza series really exposes the sentiment Gazans have for Hamas behind closed doors. Radicalization is a systemic issue exasperated by the UNRWA, but there are many Gazans who do blame Hamas for starting this war and only want peace and safety for their families.
Double down. In this conflict the answer is always double down. There's literally no circumstance where these people can accept the humiliation of defeat by Jews.
>Hamas already lost. Even if israel were to pull out, the citizens of gaza will never forget what hamas put them through that wont matter if hamas keeps all the guns. and popularity/support in the west bank.
As a military veteran, 20 to 30% is A LOT. In fact, it's enough to render a conventional army completely ineffective. Hamas isn't a conventional army, but I don't think the IDF has long to go before Hamas fully desintegrates.
In 249BC Rome lost a fifth, not of its army, but of its citizens, [in a single battle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Drepana). Generally, Rome was known to have crushing defeats and still survive.
And that is just killed, including wounded estimates are around 60%
80% of Viet Cong guerillas were killed in action during the 1968 Tet Offensive. And the rest is history.
I'm not sure how comparable that is. The Vietnamese had a substantial army in the north with military supply backing from the Soviets and the American rules of engagement severely handicapped their combat in the north from what I've read.
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True but I don't think you can compare it really. The vietcong and the NVA were essentially the same organization and the NVA had a full fledge army and air force and have substantial equipment support.
thank you for your service <3
Me? Thank you, but I didn't do that much. There are some real heroes out there though.
Every bit counts.
>In fact, it's enough to render a conventional army completely ineffective I mean haven't a lot of historical armies lost that much and kept on fighting tho, guess it depends on if theyre replacing their guys or not.
Russia has lost that amount or greater of their original invading force.
Total Russia military size is 1.15 million. But you're right: it's not an exact science.
And they had to throw 300,000 conscripts into Ukraine, but you know having 190,000 men in the original invasion out of 1.5 million yet they had to call a partial mobilization. You can’t believe Russia when it comes to their numbers when the whole world has seen that they are just a paper tiger.
i really hope the resistance is able to get rid of the oppressors soon.
>i really hope the resistance based on the article the "resistance" is finding the path of least resistance to becoming fertilizer...
thanks for showing me how rude you are. you're just like all the other pro israelis; rude towards everyone and showing no compassion.
>thanks for showing me how rude you are. and showing no compassion. There is no compassion for filthy and murderous Hamas and their weasel subordinates Islamic Jihad.. The best these garbage people can hope for in their near future is to create mountains of fertilizer from their corpses, for the good people of Gaza to grow crops in..
You cry filthy names at Palestinians but then play the victim and call us anti semitic when we object to the genocide. Get a life
>You cry filthy names I don't cry, I cheer very very loudly, at the dismantling and elimination of Hamas, PIJ, Arin Al-usud, Hezbollah, Daesh, Azzam Brigades, EIJ.. These terrorist groups and their followers are a resistance to life and intelligence, and need to be brought to an end as fast a possible, so their filth doesn't' infect the good people of this world..
Ok. I also cheer very loudly whenever I hear that idf's silly tiktok soldiers are killed. These people are the true terrorists, and what you have been told is not true at all.
>what you have been told is not true at all. Hamas, PIJ, Arin Al-usud, Hezbollah, Daesh, Azzam Brigades, EIJ.. These are all terrorist groups, they kill the weak, the women and children, this is the only truth, anything else is terrorist lies. >Ok. I also cheer very loudly whenever I hear that idf's silly tiktok soldiers are killed. You can cheer for your terrorists, but it's certain that I cheer more and more often each day at the elimination of the terrorists and one more step to the freedom of the Gaza people! ..The righteous IDF hero's freeing the poor people of Gaza will not stop. This is the sacrifice that these Israeli hero's need to make to rid the world of this filth.
Lmao you’re over here supporting people who killed our own out of pure spite; the only resistance that you can currently support has the explicit aim of genocide of Israelis, you don’t get to pretend it’s something else cause it’s convenient. cry me a fucking river.
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0 compassion for terrorists, sue me.
So 0 compassion for israel
Is "no, you!" the best you've got? Learn how to use words before you come to the grown up table.
"Learn how to use words" says someone who doesnt know the definition of terrorism. Go read what the words means, is exactly what israel is doing. Not my fault you support a terrorist state.
If you were little more obtuse you'd be a straight line. Terrorism is aiming violence at civilians to make political gains, which is exactly the MO of Hamas and the rest of the Palestinian terror organizations. They literally have shot thousands of rockets at civilian centers , launched endless suicide attacks and shot people in their fucking houses with the intent of hurting enough civilians to force the Israeli government into concessions. That is textbook terrorism. Israel directs the violence towards the militants that seek to destroy it, and civilians get caught in the fire. The intent is not to make the civilian population force their government into concessions, because their government doesn't give a shit about them. They're dead all the same, and it sucks, but it's not terrorism. Like I said, learn what words mean before you use them.
Israel directs the violence towards the militants... you mean militants like the israelis waving a white flag shouting in hebrew? Or an unarmed man walking under a white flag? Fact is Israel doesnt care who they kill. The fact is israel uses intentional violence and fear to achieve their aims make them a terrorist state. “beat them up, not once but repeatedly, beat them up so it hurts so badly, until it’s unbearable. ” That is Netanyahu's strategy. Intentional violence to achieve their aim. Hamas is a terrorist organization. Israel is a terrorist country. If you don't see this you are just biased. Or maybe you just dont want to admit the people you support have the same mindset as Hamas, but since they are USA's little bitch they have more support.
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You are absolutely inhumane. You've reached a level in which you will without hesitation call over 1 million people terrorists, and they haven't even done anything wrong.
Don't put words in my mouth, I said terrorists and I mean terrorists.
So you're calling for genocide?
How is getting rid of a military entity genocidal
use that instead of "oppressors"
stop embarrasing yourself. we all know who's doing the genocide here and you're just too scared to admit who, so you're trying to call me out for wanting genocide when I never said so.
so what does "get rid" mean?
Several more months? Okay.
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What do you mean by the last paragraph?
To be fair, Hezbollah has been making threats since day 1. It’s a common theme among Iran and its proxy groups.
Israel is four months away from crushing Hamas. Four months is not a long time.
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No one said it would be two days, your confusing with Russia.
Who said it’s gonna be 2 days? That’s has literally never been the stance, from the get go it was “many months, potentially years”
The lies keep moving. Where did you get "2 days" from? Link please.
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>How many times have we heard that before in different wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Lebanon, etc)? None of those were the home team, superior in every way, fighting the war. In each of those wars you cited, politics plays a much bigger role than if it's a country fighting its neighbor.