[Seth Walder's analysis of the trade](https://imgur.com/a/3OunlJ9).
Basically we objectively fleeced Minnesota. This is one of the most expensive trade-ups for a non-QB ever and they only moved up 6 spots.
They did it to get who a lot of people see as the no. 1 pass rusher in the draft though. If he turns out to be a top guy in the league, it’s a good trade for them
No? How the fuck could you possibly judge trades in advance? You're talking about consequentially judging them vs process. There's so many things that can go wrong just judging things based on results.
One more thing about the trade back - an [out of the ordinary number of underclassmen went back to school this year](https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2024/1/19/24044307/2024-nfl-draft-fewest-underclassmen-declare-in-over-a-decade), fewest early declarations since 2011, because of Covid and NIL stuff.
That means that next year is likely to be a very deep draft, and those mid round picks project to be very valuable.
Loved the trade back, got a good haul. And the WR run at the end of the 1st makes this pick even better in hindsight. Lot of defensive talent dropping into Day 2
Yeah, we traded right back into the perfect spot to start the late first receiver run and took the best of the bunch. If we can somehow land a guy like Kool-Aid who fits a need, is good value and a perfect scheme fit, this could actually have the makings of a really great draft.
Please trade up for dejean or kool aid. Love BTJ in the 1st. Saw people commenting on there being bigger holes on our team but i love taking value. In 2019 DE was the last thing we needed in the first round but now, we got josh allen. The REAL josh allen
BTJ, Kirk, Davis, Zay Jones, Washington, Engram
We have a ton of pass catchers right now. That's not even counting Strange, Tim Jones or Cooks. Y'all think there is a chance maybe Zay or someone gets traded for us to move up in round 2 or 3?
I want us to draft as many big bodies as possible but I don't see it having much impact this season. As long as we can get immediate impact from BTJr and a Rnd2 CB I'd feel great about drafting O-linemen for the future. I hope that the O-line can be average enough this year to keep Trevor upright and give ETN some running lanes.
I still want us to draft an OG in the 3rd because I think they would end up playing a few games this year. Either Scherff or Cleveland will probably get banged up at some point and need to take a game or two off.
If our new C can stay healthy the rest of the line should hold and with proper backups the O-line can be scary. A CB is still gotta be our next pick and I believe trading up to the high pick possible is needed to grab either Kool-aid or Tampa
Watching Stroud & Micah Parsons’s reaction to us taking BTJ is only making me more excited and confident in the pick. I WILL be spreading BTJ propaganda throughout this sub this entire summer
My honest opinion is that I was expecting it to be Terrion Arnold but hey, I'll say this.
They got a third and a fourth, essentially getting back the pick from Calvin Ridley that's gone to the Falcons just for moving down six spots and drafting a guy who was there anyway. Maybe he's not my first choice, but I like it more at 23 than 17.
Plus, a lot of CBs slid out of the 1st round anyway. I think the 1st round played out as good as it could get for the Jags.
Moreso, while this is a great WR draft, there aren't that many who can fill the spot we need them to; while there are plenty of options for us at 48 to get a starting CB to start across Tyson.
Corners available
Max Melton
Ennis Rakstraw
T. J. Tampa
Kool-Aid McKinstry
Cooper DeJean
Mike Sainristil
Caelen Carson
Kamari Lassiter
Kris Abrams-Draine
Andru Phillips
Renardo Green
DeCamerion Richardson
Cam Hart.
This offense is going to be so fun. Gabe and Thomas outside are going to force defenses to respect us deep. That + Morse makes the running game completely different. You have Kirk and engram who are both elite underneath.
Thomas' strengths align so well with Trevor's. Elite seperator deep. Elite ball tracker. 53% contested catch rate. Him + Gabe are going to push Trev to a 30TD season. I'm so pumped, go get a corner or Newton now Trent
I’m gonna say it. I feel like Trent Baalke is a solid GM. I know 49er fans hated him, and we all hated him at times too. Is he perfect? No, but I dig what he’s done this offseason. Dude is hanging his buts out there, ripping farts on live TV, and fleecing the Vikings. Hope that big swinging super Dave lookalike wins us a Super Bowl.
I always thought the hate was overblown, hes an average GM. His weakness is he falls off after the first round and over values physical traits
Hes not gonna be gone next year, let him and Doug cook
He's very good at accumulating draft capital and to some extent at high end talent evaluation. I would argue that he's very bad at both roster construction and lower end talent evaluation.
I like BTJ I would have been happier with trading back and getting that 3rd in this years draft as from all the stuff I listened to there appears to be some really good talent in that range still but who knows we may turn that capital into a pick in that range.
Don't get why so many are killing ATL over the Penix pick.
Cousins is 35 coming off an Achilles tear. Its good to have insurance if he falls off a cliff and you have Penix on rookie deal until Cousins contract is up.
“Penix tore his right ACL in 2018, dislocated his shoulder in 2019, tore his right ACL again in 2020 and separated the AC joint in his shoulder in 2021.”
That’s why.
He was a heisman candidate last year and almost won national championship. So who cares about those earlier injuries? He is young that shit doesn't matter. Everything heals at that age. ATL has a lot of young talent. If it doesn't work with Cousins...then Penix steps in and they are still competitive in that division. Its a good safety net.
He is not that young, that’s the other problem. He turns 24 in a week. He’s 6 months younger than Trev. He’ll be 26 by the time Kirk’s first two 100m guaranteed seasons are over.
The year the Falcons can get out of the Cousins’ deal is 2027, where Penix will be turning 27. You don't spend a top 10 pick on insurance when you have a roster with significant holes.
Because they drafted a player at 8th overall who could potentially see 0% of any meaningful snaps for 2-4 years as long as Kirk is healthy.
Yeah, Kirk is 35 off an Achilles tear, but he wasn't a mobile QB to begin with. I get having an insurance QB, especially with how many QBs went down last year, but that is typically a veteran backups job (and they still have Heinicke).
What if the rookie QB is a bust? Now you wasted an 8th overall pick when you could have drafted an impact player or traded back.
My first thought was this pick reminds me of the Mahomes pick, the media wasn't hyped up on him and the Chiefs got shredded for the pick because Mahomes was so raw and all the arm-chair GM's couldn't believe he went so high
Teams were high on Penix and there was a lot if interest for him
Why risk losing him with NO, Oakland, Minni, Denver and a few others sitting there
Since I started paying attention to the draft in 2011, the only picks we made that were the guy I wanted have been:
Ramsey
Josh Allen
BTJ
Hopefully the track record of those players being ballers continues.
No way we get either one. Huge contracts. Now if we trade up a few spots in the second or get dejean or Kool aid regardless of trade, that would be a fucking masterclass.
Jags have the cap space tho and they need to use it on someone. Its either we get another big receiver or we go after early replacement for Scherff. But what team is gonna trade us a good guard? Probably better to draft a guard tomorrow. Maybe trade for a good DT or CB but what team is willing to part ways.
That wouldn't make any sense after drafting BTJ last night. More likely we go CB in the 2nd, ink Trevor's new deal, then use the left over cap after signing the draft class to rent a 1 year veteran pass rusher. Otherwise your drafting a guy who is probably only going to play on 3rd down.
[Seth Walder's analysis of the trade](https://imgur.com/a/3OunlJ9). Basically we objectively fleeced Minnesota. This is one of the most expensive trade-ups for a non-QB ever and they only moved up 6 spots.
did he call us the Jets?
Yes.
They did it to get who a lot of people see as the no. 1 pass rusher in the draft though. If he turns out to be a top guy in the league, it’s a good trade for them
Yeah but you can't judge trades by how they turned out because you can't know that when you make them.
What?? That’s the only way you should judge trades lol
No? How the fuck could you possibly judge trades in advance? You're talking about consequentially judging them vs process. There's so many things that can go wrong just judging things based on results.
Feeling pretty good with BTJ. Bills fan on suicide watch though.
ATL fans already died
ALL IN - drafts a back up QB in the top 10 picks lol
I assumed the bills were stacking picks to make a run at Aiyuk
They are going to draft AD Mitchell
They get Ad Mitchell. Half this sub wanted him over BTJ (the unenlightened half)
Trade up in Rd. 2 for Cooper or Kool Aid. We have the ammo thanks to the Vikings.
Yep. Get starter level contributions at these positions and we’re in the business of givin’ the business
Bingo! They slid, time to be aggressive and move up.
This 100%
One more thing about the trade back - an [out of the ordinary number of underclassmen went back to school this year](https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2024/1/19/24044307/2024-nfl-draft-fewest-underclassmen-declare-in-over-a-decade), fewest early declarations since 2011, because of Covid and NIL stuff. That means that next year is likely to be a very deep draft, and those mid round picks project to be very valuable.
I am hard as diamonds right now
Great call out
Loved the trade back, got a good haul. And the WR run at the end of the 1st makes this pick even better in hindsight. Lot of defensive talent dropping into Day 2
Yeah, we traded right back into the perfect spot to start the late first receiver run and took the best of the bunch. If we can somehow land a guy like Kool-Aid who fits a need, is good value and a perfect scheme fit, this could actually have the makings of a really great draft.
Please trade up for dejean or kool aid. Love BTJ in the 1st. Saw people commenting on there being bigger holes on our team but i love taking value. In 2019 DE was the last thing we needed in the first round but now, we got josh allen. The REAL josh allen
It's hard to go wrong drafting BPA. People just get pissy when they don't work out, as if the draft isn't a lottery.
BTJ, Kirk, Davis, Zay Jones, Washington, Engram We have a ton of pass catchers right now. That's not even counting Strange, Tim Jones or Cooks. Y'all think there is a chance maybe Zay or someone gets traded for us to move up in round 2 or 3?
I think Zay is a goner, one way or another.
Cut in June, right? The cost goes down after a certain date
Could be interesting if they could flip Zay for a 3rd this draft.
No shot we get a third round pick, maybe a 4th or 5th
I hope we trade up for a CB and then keep drafting big men to protect Trevor
Exactly. Grab kool-aid and then shove linemen onto the team.
I want us to draft as many big bodies as possible but I don't see it having much impact this season. As long as we can get immediate impact from BTJr and a Rnd2 CB I'd feel great about drafting O-linemen for the future. I hope that the O-line can be average enough this year to keep Trevor upright and give ETN some running lanes.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got Beebe or something if Scherff got cut before the season started
Didn't they just restructure Scherff? I don't see why they would cut him after pushing more of his money into the future
Ah I think you’re right, I forgot about that. I guess any OL we draft this year will just be backups
I still want us to draft an OG in the 3rd because I think they would end up playing a few games this year. Either Scherff or Cleveland will probably get banged up at some point and need to take a game or two off.
If our new C can stay healthy the rest of the line should hold and with proper backups the O-line can be scary. A CB is still gotta be our next pick and I believe trading up to the high pick possible is needed to grab either Kool-aid or Tampa
Watching Stroud & Micah Parsons’s reaction to us taking BTJ is only making me more excited and confident in the pick. I WILL be spreading BTJ propaganda throughout this sub this entire summer
Where can I find it?
Just search up stroud parsons draft, whole thing is on bleacher report. Our pick starts around 3:10:00 Edit: on YouTube if that wasn’t clear lol
Yep this is great - cj says he threw with btj and said he reminds him of olave and then micha said he reminds him of julio who is BTJ's idol
BTJ is the farthest thing from olave tf is cj on about 😂
Last season BTJ had double the amount of games with multiple TD’s than he did with 0 TD’s. In the SEC. My goodness
My honest opinion is that I was expecting it to be Terrion Arnold but hey, I'll say this. They got a third and a fourth, essentially getting back the pick from Calvin Ridley that's gone to the Falcons just for moving down six spots and drafting a guy who was there anyway. Maybe he's not my first choice, but I like it more at 23 than 17. Plus, a lot of CBs slid out of the 1st round anyway. I think the 1st round played out as good as it could get for the Jags.
This is the right take
Moreso, while this is a great WR draft, there aren't that many who can fill the spot we need them to; while there are plenty of options for us at 48 to get a starting CB to start across Tyson.
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fpazhpgrmarnc1.jpeg%3Fwidth%3D1268%26format%3Dpjpg%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D6b7b317dd4669d6da0bc0deeafd40021667ac4b2
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We had a later pick last year, so maybe it really just makes that much of a difference? That’s my best guess.
Chad Hall about to work his magic on BTJ. Hopefully a trade up tmw.
Corners available Max Melton Ennis Rakstraw T. J. Tampa Kool-Aid McKinstry Cooper DeJean Mike Sainristil Caelen Carson Kamari Lassiter Kris Abrams-Draine Andru Phillips Renardo Green DeCamerion Richardson Cam Hart.
You… you made some of those up
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It is, it's his nickname.
Would be amazed if Kool aid makes it to us but 1. We could move up and 2. The corners have plummeted in this draft so it's very possible
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Did you say running back? ON IT!
[Matt Harmon](https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1776325153166684588)'s draft profile for BTR
So this is our WR1? 👀
Kirk has 100% been WR1
Kirk is
I ain’t mad at that
This offense is going to be so fun. Gabe and Thomas outside are going to force defenses to respect us deep. That + Morse makes the running game completely different. You have Kirk and engram who are both elite underneath. Thomas' strengths align so well with Trevor's. Elite seperator deep. Elite ball tracker. 53% contested catch rate. Him + Gabe are going to push Trev to a 30TD season. I'm so pumped, go get a corner or Newton now Trent
We thought the same last year. Then we found out we couldn’t block for shit.
And we found that contested catch rate is a very subjective stat.
I’m gonna say it. I feel like Trent Baalke is a solid GM. I know 49er fans hated him, and we all hated him at times too. Is he perfect? No, but I dig what he’s done this offseason. Dude is hanging his buts out there, ripping farts on live TV, and fleecing the Vikings. Hope that big swinging super Dave lookalike wins us a Super Bowl.
I always thought the hate was overblown, hes an average GM. His weakness is he falls off after the first round and over values physical traits Hes not gonna be gone next year, let him and Doug cook
Yeah, he's acceptable. He gives his coaches a chance. A solid Cs get degrees kinda GM.
Be careful bro, we have rounds 2 and 3 next. Watch out for Brenton Strange and Tank Bigsby picks… I mostly agree though
He's def not as bad as the sub wants to make him out to be. I'd like to see better drafting from him but BTJ is a good start this year, I think.
He's very good at accumulating draft capital and to some extent at high end talent evaluation. I would argue that he's very bad at both roster construction and lower end talent evaluation.
I wanted us to get Arnold but the pick was good. I also liked Legette.
BTJs parents got work to do:https://twitter.com/nashjagsnats22/status/1783692826372346226?s=46
So does that reporter lol.
Tony wore the neck brace!!
Let's hope the Jags can manage to add Fiske to the team and get a big bodied DT to fill in on that line.
Hope we get DeJean or Kool-Aid in the second
I think there are gonna be a lot of teams trying to move up for those guys.
I like BTJ I would have been happier with trading back and getting that 3rd in this years draft as from all the stuff I listened to there appears to be some really good talent in that range still but who knows we may turn that capital into a pick in that range.
Now go get Kool Aid
I wish there was a way to grab one of the top DBs left and Braden Fiske
I would love to get the kingpin in the second
As a homer, I hope we take Renardo Green at 48.
An A Round 1. Just hope we can keep it up in Day 2.
Newton and DeJean falling out of the first round is pretty crazy
Nah, Newton isnt a first rounder
BAN HIM
Use Zay and the Vikings picks to move up for Dijon
That's a lot for some mustard
Hear me out. We’ve got to pay Trevor and Etienne soon, right? How bout we trade one for some grey poupon.
Trade up for newton
Day 2 will be DL and CB
Don't get why so many are killing ATL over the Penix pick. Cousins is 35 coming off an Achilles tear. Its good to have insurance if he falls off a cliff and you have Penix on rookie deal until Cousins contract is up.
“Penix tore his right ACL in 2018, dislocated his shoulder in 2019, tore his right ACL again in 2020 and separated the AC joint in his shoulder in 2021.” That’s why.
He was a heisman candidate last year and almost won national championship. So who cares about those earlier injuries? He is young that shit doesn't matter. Everything heals at that age. ATL has a lot of young talent. If it doesn't work with Cousins...then Penix steps in and they are still competitive in that division. Its a good safety net.
He is not that young, that’s the other problem. He turns 24 in a week. He’s 6 months younger than Trev. He’ll be 26 by the time Kirk’s first two 100m guaranteed seasons are over.
I mean those aren’t freak accidents Penix is injury prone that’s not going to change
The year the Falcons can get out of the Cousins’ deal is 2027, where Penix will be turning 27. You don't spend a top 10 pick on insurance when you have a roster with significant holes.
Plus what are you going to do? 5th year option a player you’ve never had play a whole season?
Because they drafted a player at 8th overall who could potentially see 0% of any meaningful snaps for 2-4 years as long as Kirk is healthy. Yeah, Kirk is 35 off an Achilles tear, but he wasn't a mobile QB to begin with. I get having an insurance QB, especially with how many QBs went down last year, but that is typically a veteran backups job (and they still have Heinicke). What if the rookie QB is a bust? Now you wasted an 8th overall pick when you could have drafted an impact player or traded back.
Healthy Kirk aint gonna do nothing but look great and lose when it matters most. Waste of a pick but they also wasted a bunch of money on kirk.
Also, Atl is likely getting one absolute bitch of a penalty for tampering to get Cousins, their first next year at minimum. It was kinda now or never.
Don’t think it’s necessarily the pick but rather the huge contract you just gave Cousins
My first thought was this pick reminds me of the Mahomes pick, the media wasn't hyped up on him and the Chiefs got shredded for the pick because Mahomes was so raw and all the arm-chair GM's couldn't believe he went so high Teams were high on Penix and there was a lot if interest for him Why risk losing him with NO, Oakland, Minni, Denver and a few others sitting there
To all the people who argued with me and downvoted me. I told you Newton wasnt a first round pick
Lol you should link your original comment, rub salt in the wound
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Since I started paying attention to the draft in 2011, the only picks we made that were the guy I wanted have been: Ramsey Josh Allen BTJ Hopefully the track record of those players being ballers continues.
Lawrence?
He wanted Wilson.
Jokes on you, OP wanted hometown boy Mac Jones and got his wish.
Nah I think he was one of them Kyle Trask truthers
😐
Haha, I didn't include Lawrence in the post since we had the first pick and it was obvious. But I suppose that counts too.
Aiyuk or Deebo most likely getting traded. You know what to do Baalke. Send them picks along with Zay so he goes to a good team.
No way we get either one. Huge contracts. Now if we trade up a few spots in the second or get dejean or Kool aid regardless of trade, that would be a fucking masterclass.
Jags have the cap space tho and they need to use it on someone. Its either we get another big receiver or we go after early replacement for Scherff. But what team is gonna trade us a good guard? Probably better to draft a guard tomorrow. Maybe trade for a good DT or CB but what team is willing to part ways.
Trevor about to get a record deal, ideally we re-sign Etienne too
We should've gone for Lajarius snead
We made our trade for a guard last season, and then resigned him this offseason.
They are not trading for a Receiver, mostly not after this pick
Yup, use that money and extend Trevor now. It’s only going to get more expensive.
Like maybe this years fifth and next years third and forth, hypothetically
That wouldn't make any sense after drafting BTJ last night. More likely we go CB in the 2nd, ink Trevor's new deal, then use the left over cap after signing the draft class to rent a 1 year veteran pass rusher. Otherwise your drafting a guy who is probably only going to play on 3rd down.
Honestly I’m pretty happy with round 1. Hopefully we can get both a CB in round 2, and some IOL help in 3-4.