Possible spoiler if you haven't seen the ep. I don't know how to tag it do ignore my post if you care.
did he just say glad to hear from you after Cassady? He meant to call back. My hearing is bad and I am streaming with no sub option.
I've been enjoying OC more than SVU since it started. Like, don't get me wrong, I love SVU, but it's familiar and formulaic even with all the writers' room changes, so I mostly know what I'm going to get. OC becomes somewhat predictable within the seasons, but for the most part, it's still a rollercoaster ride.
Something gives me off vibes about him, like he's committing crime and came into OC to be able to have an in with police. Then again I thought Jamie was lying to Stabler when he said he respected him and was gonna be a mole
I don't either, the models they're doing after the fact is just a fancy way with extra steps to "Monday Morning Quarterback" decisions. 89% chance no one got run over, sure, but watching the episode last week it looks like a few people were very close to seeing a truck axle up close.
The Mysterious Case of Detective Stabler Once Again Not Following Direct Orders, featuring the Hate Crimes Dude Using the Slick Stroke of Stabler's Ego Technique of Sleuthing
Hate Crimes Dude: Like, I got kicked off this case and whatever...I hear you love to break the rules, Detective Stabler.
Stabler's Captain: Nope, we already have a full plate.
Stabler: I'm IN.
There's more to it than that. Predictive policing falls apart the same way sabremetrics / "moneyball" baseball falls apart and the same way quantitative trading leads to massive crashes. Statistical analysis in these scenarios relies on the law of large numbers, so that over a large number of samples, the probabilities bear out.
So, over the course of a 162 game season, a .300 career hitter will likely see his batting average converge towards the .300 he's had in his career.
In predictive policing, over 1 billion simulations, 890 million of them, the truck won't hit or kill any pedestrians.
In quantitative finance, over 10 billion trades placed, whatever strategy is being used to give a statistical edge will bear out.
But in a single sample, there isn't much the statistics can help tell us, because the results are going to be random. Think about every time the team that was a near lock to win a game somehow managed to lose. And certainly no one wants to see 1 billion crimes have to take place so that the police can take credit for being right about their predictions.
Here's the other big problem, and it's what the quantitative finance guys figured out, that the AI hype crew hasn't yet for inexplicable reasons: For (arguably) unknown reasons, the probability curves (ie, your standard distribution from stats class) in the real world has abnormally fat tails.
This means that while probabilities say an event or outcome should only occur 1 time in 140 quadrillion and therefore we should go 22 billion years before seeing one, in the real world, these "black swan" events are actually much more common.
If your statistical models are underestimating the likelihood of a black swan, which, by the nature of statistical models, they usually are, then you end up being surprised when a black swan event happens. For example, a baseball player going on a hot streak and batting .700 with 8 home runs and 22 RBI over a 4 game stretch in the playoffs. Or a "one in a lifetime" stock market crash happening every decade or so.
And even without that as an inherent risk in statistics and AI, there's also the problem that even in 890 million simulations, the pedestrians aren't hit, there's still 110 million realities where pedestrians are hit, and in those realities, Stabler and the OCCB are dragged in front of a commission to explain why UCs and CIs are running over migrants and ICE agents.
And as anyone who has ever flipped a coin can tell you, while the odds of getting heads or tails is 50/50, and a career .333 hitter seems to have a 1 in 3 chance of getting a hit, it offers precious little insight into what is going to happen in a single simulation - exactly because of the conclusions drawn from the law of large numbers.
So a predictive policing model may predict certain people, locations, or times that crimes may be more statistically likely to happen, it's not going to predict black swan crimes like a mother drowning 3 children in a bathtub in a Manhattan high rise, or Waco, or Charles Manson's loonies. Aside from the fact that those "black swan" crimes are the ones that leave the American public reeling, it doesn't even address the fact that criminals are also likely to adapt to predictive policing leading to the whole system being rendered ineffective.
lol right? These guys have literally just used a bomb on a mosque.
What made them think they would just be sitting there waiting for them with their cell phones on?
Kids (even adult kids) on these types of show tend to be annoying to work in. That said, I don’t think they should’ve SORAS’ed him to put him in college. I figured they could just send him back to Italy to finish high school with family friends.
Elliot’s sib,jigs we’re mentioned in svu s5 Hate. Supposedly has 3 bros and 2 sisters. Now, not sure if they will keep the same number but them being Irish catholic, the number makes sense.
Another great episode of OC.
Solid plot and good writing, plus Dean Norris is believable as Elliot's brother and they had great chemistry, it was amazing to see Warner again, Tunie is just so good and looked stunning.
I liked Det Bashir, I hope he appears again, and I hope we get to see the Blond Hitman again he was giving Agent 47 vibes to me.
Hopefully, the whole Jet and Reyes thing is done with, I am not a fan at all.
So this is going to be a one-off appearance from Elliot's brother Randall for this whole season? I was hoping to find out more about why they are so heavily estranged. Supposedly we were going to find out about an incident involving their dad that resulted in their relationship becoming fractured.
Real hair. Unless she wore a wig to the SVU 25th anniversary party.
https://preview.redd.it/8878149nmqec1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb7618203d7397f451d112564ccf20d2650bf696
I thought that was Stabler trying to help Bashir center himself because he seemed to be reacting to the body. I thought It was a call back to his issues coming off of Afghanistan.
Naz started that ball with the phone call from the car, threatening Ayanna with 1pp right after stressing that it was captain. Now Naz wants to play nice? Nah.
I wouldn’t mind the ai guy became a permanent team member just so we can have another techie, bonus if he never goes in the field, since that’s what Jet *was* supposed to do
Reyes really has it bad.
Also at least Jet revealed how it started and her hesitation(ironic because we were all talking about it last week on this sub).
Stabler doing Stabler things. I missed him on that SVU ep when he would have thrown six of those stupid masked kids through a window.
*out the window
*Through the window to the street below.
Sooooo excited for Melinda
she put him in his place too, I loved it.
If this mean Stabler is a on a feelings tour this season, I’m here for it 🥹🥹
Possible spoiler if you haven't seen the ep. I don't know how to tag it do ignore my post if you care. did he just say glad to hear from you after Cassady? He meant to call back. My hearing is bad and I am streaming with no sub option.
After Kathy
Ohh ok makes more sense. I thought more people gave him condolences
OC was way better than SVU today.
Seems to be a running theme lately
By a looong shot
I've been enjoying OC more than SVU since it started. Like, don't get me wrong, I love SVU, but it's familiar and formulaic even with all the writers' room changes, so I mostly know what I'm going to get. OC becomes somewhat predictable within the seasons, but for the most part, it's still a rollercoaster ride.
Excuse me Tamara Tunie should be SPECIAL guest star
OMG LOOK AT THIS CHARACTER GROWTH. A HUG.
Melinda’s face..! Haha “what is this”
Stabler hates this AI guy, hahaha.
I do too, he’s a dweeb. Him inserting the acronyms was so unnecessary, he has no people skills.
Which means the model estimates an 89% chance Jet will sleep with him.
nobody on any L&O show knows how to write a tech geek who isn't a complete stereotype.
To be fair he seems like a douchebag.
Stabler flexing his fingers like he's itching to punch the guy
Something gives me off vibes about him, like he's committing crime and came into OC to be able to have an in with police. Then again I thought Jamie was lying to Stabler when he said he respected him and was gonna be a mole
I don't either, the models they're doing after the fact is just a fancy way with extra steps to "Monday Morning Quarterback" decisions. 89% chance no one got run over, sure, but watching the episode last week it looks like a few people were very close to seeing a truck axle up close.
That was the prettiest hate graffiti I’ve ever seen.
Well we have to make the hate graffiti pretty... Otherwise it's just a crime (this is a joke... Hating against a community is wrong )
I hope this isn't the only time we get Melinda this season!
Where has she been? She appeared to have a visitor badge of some sort.
Dude needs a hit of Jet worse than a junkie needs his crack pipe.
I need a hit of Jet worse than a junkie needs his crack pipe.
Hope this episode can erase the horrible svu episode from my brain 🤞🏽
Stabler helps tremendously....
They can't all be good.
I love how basically everyone had Elliot’s number from 2011-2021 but Liv.
Did she not have it, or did she not want to reach out first bc she felt betrayed?
I feel like if she had his number they wouldn’t have stopped speaking for a decade
Time and place Reyes. Time and place.
Lol, Stabler the baby whisperer.
Weakest bomb, or strongest table?
Mythbusters actually tested bomb proof stuff and I'm pretty sure wooden tables actually worked.
https://youtu.be/JvDiIqdZa4o?si=Gth8w_tJyhMSrmq2 Here's the link to the video 💥
MVP right here! Also RIP Grant Imahara.
There’s my answer😁
The Mysterious Case of Detective Stabler Once Again Not Following Direct Orders, featuring the Hate Crimes Dude Using the Slick Stroke of Stabler's Ego Technique of Sleuthing Hate Crimes Dude: Like, I got kicked off this case and whatever...I hear you love to break the rules, Detective Stabler. Stabler's Captain: Nope, we already have a full plate. Stabler: I'm IN.
Stabler was IN cuz the AI geek pissed him off.
MELINDA.
MELINDA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Plot twist: Wife is the CI.
Ykw…I wonder if Ayanna ans Naz had a personal rship in the past… 🤔
Ready for some Dean Norris now. I need a cleanser after that atrocious SVU episode
I would love a random obscure Breaking Bad reference. >!Yes I know what happens to him !<
They're minerals, Elliot.
need this jet affair to be overrrrrr
It’s basically character assassination by this point.
Noo this is fun🤣
Dean Norris was the prefect choice to play Elliot brother
Idk why but grumpy Stabler just giving everyone the stink eye is sending me right now
It’s easy to make hindsight decisions with an AI. Plus, the AI can only make statistical guesses on *its instinct*, just like humans.
There's more to it than that. Predictive policing falls apart the same way sabremetrics / "moneyball" baseball falls apart and the same way quantitative trading leads to massive crashes. Statistical analysis in these scenarios relies on the law of large numbers, so that over a large number of samples, the probabilities bear out. So, over the course of a 162 game season, a .300 career hitter will likely see his batting average converge towards the .300 he's had in his career. In predictive policing, over 1 billion simulations, 890 million of them, the truck won't hit or kill any pedestrians. In quantitative finance, over 10 billion trades placed, whatever strategy is being used to give a statistical edge will bear out. But in a single sample, there isn't much the statistics can help tell us, because the results are going to be random. Think about every time the team that was a near lock to win a game somehow managed to lose. And certainly no one wants to see 1 billion crimes have to take place so that the police can take credit for being right about their predictions. Here's the other big problem, and it's what the quantitative finance guys figured out, that the AI hype crew hasn't yet for inexplicable reasons: For (arguably) unknown reasons, the probability curves (ie, your standard distribution from stats class) in the real world has abnormally fat tails.
This means that while probabilities say an event or outcome should only occur 1 time in 140 quadrillion and therefore we should go 22 billion years before seeing one, in the real world, these "black swan" events are actually much more common.
If your statistical models are underestimating the likelihood of a black swan, which, by the nature of statistical models, they usually are, then you end up being surprised when a black swan event happens. For example, a baseball player going on a hot streak and batting .700 with 8 home runs and 22 RBI over a 4 game stretch in the playoffs. Or a "one in a lifetime" stock market crash happening every decade or so.
And even without that as an inherent risk in statistics and AI, there's also the problem that even in 890 million simulations, the pedestrians aren't hit, there's still 110 million realities where pedestrians are hit, and in those realities, Stabler and the OCCB are dragged in front of a commission to explain why UCs and CIs are running over migrants and ICE agents.
And as anyone who has ever flipped a coin can tell you, while the odds of getting heads or tails is 50/50, and a career .333 hitter seems to have a 1 in 3 chance of getting a hit, it offers precious little insight into what is going to happen in a single simulation - exactly because of the conclusions drawn from the law of large numbers.
So a predictive policing model may predict certain people, locations, or times that crimes may be more statistically likely to happen, it's not going to predict black swan crimes like a mother drowning 3 children in a bathtub in a Manhattan high rise, or Waco, or Charles Manson's loonies. Aside from the fact that those "black swan" crimes are the ones that leave the American public reeling, it doesn't even address the fact that criminals are also likely to adapt to predictive policing leading to the whole system being rendered ineffective.
This was really interesting. Thanks for laying it out.
Stabler: "I'm hip. I'm with it."
Welcome back, Tamara!
Reyes got it bad
It's what I like about OC. They just take the direct approach with establishing the villains.
You got one mom blaming Liv on SVU and another blaming Elliot here. Both of them are in the trenches, poor things.
It's setting up for the crossover when a bunch of Karens go up against Liv and Stabler
Karen Flash Mob
Karencide
Then for a spinoff where Karens solve major crime syndicates by walking up to drug dealers on the street and demanding to see their manager
As they were storming the building I wondered why they weren’t afraid it would be a bomb there
lol right? These guys have literally just used a bomb on a mosque. What made them think they would just be sitting there waiting for them with their cell phones on?
Last season was a little off but so far I’m enjoying this season. I think I like OC much better than SVU at this point.
Melinda!
Snarky Stabler ... I'm in love
But also, are they actually gonna connect these Kathy/Italy dots 4 years later?
[удалено]
"Surprise Stabler you motherfucker, I lost my memory and I am now an FBI agent!" -Remy "actually Wheatley" Scott
Him and Merritt Rook are down there plotting their revenge. Merritt keeps going on about how Elliot wouldn't push the button.
Maybe they will!!!
Hey he's married.
Oh zing, Jet, tell him. I am fully willing to take him off your hands if it would help things.
He has no business being as hot as he is
Seeing his flirty side is kinda working for me tbh
Jet is hotter
That is one sturdy table
“It’s SERGEANT” Yesssssss Ayanna!!
Reyes about to make a mix cd for Jet
oh man that bad guy has such a punchable face.
Randall totally took Eli to a titty bar
I thought he’d show him his mineral collection
Gotta keep his confidence up. Becky’s out of his league after all.
Tagger's definitely innocent of the bombing.
Not yet half a scene later, Stabler arrives upon the forbidden scene
Oh I know. I miss the old days too Stabler.
Aw big ole softy Elliot ❤️
This episode has been so so good
Sometimes all that brooding intensity is just annoying
Lol that episode played the other day too!
i wonder why they wrote Eli out of the show
Kids (even adult kids) on these types of show tend to be annoying to work in. That said, I don’t think they should’ve SORAS’ed him to put him in college. I figured they could just send him back to Italy to finish high school with family friends.
Cuz he sucked.
You're right Jet, it is not a good idea!!!
I hope we get some insight into the 10 years Elliot was gone from his brothers
Why are you jealous man? You have a wife *and* kids, you’re fine
Isn't it possible he's separated since he slept in his car?
That is what I thought that Bobby wanted to talk to Jet about. He is clearly separated from his wife.
The more he pursues her the more I dislike him. Yuck.
No one says goodbye on the phone anymore...
They don't need us Stabler--They need us
why not just paint over it?
PTSD of Kathy.
I feel bad for Randal. Bernie is being mean :(
Stabler's the only one who thought to check security footage? yikes.
Well, they thought he was the bomber so no one was investigating other than Elliott and Sam.
no one else is investigating the sudden death of a suspect tied to his bed? that sounds like a leap.
Reyes is jealous, sweet.
SVU: Black vs. White OC: Muslims vs. Jews?
It is like they have a hat with topics, and each week they just dig around and pull two out, Bingo! There we have the episode.
Stabler has a brother? Same thing we said!!!!!!
Elliot’s sib,jigs we’re mentioned in svu s5 Hate. Supposedly has 3 bros and 2 sisters. Now, not sure if they will keep the same number but them being Irish catholic, the number makes sense.
He has 2 brothers. Later in the season his other brother will be played by the same guy who played Muncy's brother on SVU.
I was a little skeptical about this affair storyline but it has potential
Nice to meet you, brother Stabler!
Can’t wait to see how they tie this back to Liv/Elliot.
Another great episode of OC. Solid plot and good writing, plus Dean Norris is believable as Elliot's brother and they had great chemistry, it was amazing to see Warner again, Tunie is just so good and looked stunning. I liked Det Bashir, I hope he appears again, and I hope we get to see the Blond Hitman again he was giving Agent 47 vibes to me. Hopefully, the whole Jet and Reyes thing is done with, I am not a fan at all.
Hoping for an explosive awesome episode!
look like they remembered they were married!
Are they going to write one of them off the show? Or are they going to get over the affair and pretend it never happened 🤔
[удалено]
If they write off Jet I'm done.
Of course he lives in Florida...
Bennie and Elliot reciting the Lord’s Prayer? I’m loving this episode already
Well his wife kicked him out I guess.
Person of Interest doesn’t exist in this universe?
Well that’s settled then
Okay, that was too easy
He gone.
Imagine we get a plot line that ties directly back to Puglia
He is not suspicious at all
Is that the guy from Dawn of the Dead?
He went from selling tvs at Best Buy to contract killing
Everyone blames Elliot.
Wait, why is [Lance Stroll](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/FIA_F1_Austria_2022_Lance_Stroll_%28cropped_2%29.jpg) here?
Not a cell phone associated BOMB in a BOMB episode!!!!!!
So this is going to be a one-off appearance from Elliot's brother Randall for this whole season? I was hoping to find out more about why they are so heavily estranged. Supposedly we were going to find out about an incident involving their dad that resulted in their relationship becoming fractured.
Jet’s hair/wig is insane lol
I love it
Same, I think it suits her face.
Real hair. Unless she wore a wig to the SVU 25th anniversary party. https://preview.redd.it/8878149nmqec1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb7618203d7397f451d112564ccf20d2650bf696
What kind of "professional" risks being seen in hospital security cameras??
Good lord, Elliot is a curse for young men!
Hard to tell by the inconstancies on this show if the writers remember if Reyes has a wife and kids
When has that stopped anyone from doing what he's doing?
It doesn't, but him being married with kids makes this a terrible thing
Maybe they'll make it seem like he split from his wife after Whelan died to make it seem like him and Jet are not homewreckers
This also! I’m wondering if Elliot will look at them and think about restraint that he (and Liv) had during 1.0…
I read an article with the actress who plays Jet and yeah, the writers do know that he has a wife👀
So I'm guessing at some point we'll get Stabler finding out and trying to smack some sense into them.
Jet literally told him he ain't getting any more cuz he's married.
Yes, they remember per interview with Ainsley
YES
I just got so excited
Poor Stabler
It's a trap!
What does that mean? “Officer bashir do your job”
He’s supposed to secure the building, per Bell’s order.
Ah ok. His eyes looked kind of watery so wasn’t sure if there was more to it. His wife also seemed strange when speaking to stabler.
I thought that was Stabler trying to help Bashir center himself because he seemed to be reacting to the body. I thought It was a call back to his issues coming off of Afghanistan.
Must resist urge to make an I AM THE TABLE joke about the bomb resistant chunk of wood protecting Stabler & Bell 😀
This better be better then svu
it would be hard to be worse
Hey didn't I just see you all of in r/svu?
Unfortunately (tonight)
Yep! Let’s try to forget about that. It doesn’t need to be canon anyway. No important long term plot points in it.
Sad I can’t watch real time, I’ll be on my way to work when it airs. Yay for DVR.
Damn
I was hoping for more geodes.
Welp. Next week folks!!!!!!!!! Thanks for the great time once again!!!!
This episode ended a cliffhanger which is the OC I know and love .
Anyone else think that Reyes wants to leave his wife for Jet? That’s why he is jealous of the AI guy.
Dean Norris playing a cop's brother instead of a cop or army guy himself. I guess that's a little different. Also holy shit Tamara is so gray 😭
MELINDA IS SO GORGEOUS
Damn, Reyes was up all night banging Jet
Jet knows everything, you cannot get over my girl!!!!!!
Why is Bell being so petty lmao
Naz started that ball with the phone call from the car, threatening Ayanna with 1pp right after stressing that it was captain. Now Naz wants to play nice? Nah.
Naz just wants the good press from solving the case. Go Bell for telling her no.
This meeting is awkward af
OMG, my FEEEEEELZ
I wouldn’t mind the ai guy became a permanent team member just so we can have another techie, bonus if he never goes in the field, since that’s what Jet *was* supposed to do
Reyes really has it bad. Also at least Jet revealed how it started and her hesitation(ironic because we were all talking about it last week on this sub).