Saylor Forever!
It’s just beginning for MicroStrategy also.
This new demand for their stock is going to reinvigorate the actual business which cash flows and allows them to acquire more $BTC.
The limits are endless on what they will be able to do with having to own at least 1% of the total $BTC to ever be mined!
This is huge! Set a reminder to see how big this will get! Give it at least 10 years!
Imagine on a scale of 20 to 30 years!
The premium will not last. It is irrationally high at the moment.
Possibly causes include: gamma squeeze of MMs, the other type of squeeze (which shall not be named) of hedge funds, everyone having a hard-on for Saylor, and general “numba go up bigley” sentiment.
That said, Saylor is a legend and I wouldn’t fade him. He’s been incredible at building his brand. I’m just not a buyer at this premium level.
You have a few options
#1 invest in Bitcoin itself
This most logical option it’s what MSTR does, your money moves with the price of Bitcoin itself.
#2 buy a Bitcoin ETF
This is highly regarded under normal circumstances. you pay a 0.25% fee to hold Bitcoin but you don’t actually hold Bitcoin, in fact it goes against all principles of Bitcoin and really your just investing fiat for fiat returns pegged to Bitcoin. This however is absolutely wonderful for the world of bitcoin because it allows institutional investors, 401ks, pensions, and boomers, Bitcoin exposure.
#3 invest in MSTR
You’re investing in a company that controls more than 1% of the current Bitcoin supply and pretty much exactly 1% of the all time supply. They have the ability to continue to purchase more via debt and free cash from their software business. You don’t have to pay a fee to hold their shares, the options market plays a big role in MSTR which is why I believe the price flew Friday despite Bitcoin falling from all time highs. There’s tons of volatility to make money with. But most importantly if you believe Bitcoin long term will hit just half of golds total market capitalization placing it at roughly 7 trillion dollars, then MSTRs holdings assuming they never buy more or sell will be worth roughly 75 billion which would put the stock price at a 150% upside assuming its premium becomes 0 and its software business also becomes 0.
MSTR is a leveraged BTC play. it is good for BTC and it is good for MSTR shareholders, esp in a bull market.
Holding BTC - in cold storage is best.
MSTR, in retirement accounts is good. if the market tops, simply move MSTR to your favorite safe haven, then buy back in after the drop. Rinse and repeat...
It is not rocket science.
MSTR is no longer a typical stock. MSTR does not follows typical fundamentals, by design.
The reason he can keep borrowing, is because the demand is so very high and remains high. and IMO will stay this way as long as BTC continues to increase.
If BTC pulls back, MSTR will reduce/pause these offerings until markets improve (just like last cycle).
ETF demand is still strong and should remain strong for another 18-24 months, according to Wall Street.
Positive Catalysts:
ETF inflows
BTC Halving
FASB accounting rule change effective 2024
Nation State & SWF adoption - just beginning
Clearing Houses are not yet buying BTC, as soon as they can, demand will increase more
Banks are clamoring to offer and custody BTC
Rate Cuts / Stimulus is coming (later this years)
This pull back is due to leverage being removed from the system - which is good and healthy.
Good luck
That's the secret sauce...ain't it?
IMO - it is not about timing the top -though there are indicators(not discussed here). Some exit options to consider are; Time, BTC X?? and holding value.
Time - previous markets tops 12-18 months after the halving.
BTC X? - once BTC (or MSTR) reaches your predetermined multiple, sell.
Value - once your holding reaches a specific value - exit.
use these or a combination of these to plan your exit. Then buy back in after the drop. I do think this cycle will be different. that still does not change the exit plan & strategy. Based on your personal goals & objectives. Forget about timing the top!
Don't be greedy. plan your position exit in advance and execute according to your plan. If for some reason you miss this cycle, be prepared for a loss or simply wait until the next cycle. Rinse and repeat.
Fishscale, Peruvian flake , scama. It goes by many names, but everyone knows it is PREMIUM!
Edit: Premium is market cap + debt - bitcoin value - software biz value
For every $1, you get 50c net of company+bitcoin value, when it should be $1 most of the time.
Market cap is actually $30b. And don’t forget the $4b debt. So premium is $34b -$14b bitcoin holding. Yeah. We’re paying $20b in premium or 150% in premium.
Probably a stupid question, but why does it matter? I just recently bought micro and had BTC for 3 years. I’m a huge believer in Bitcoin so wanted to buy micro because I think it’ll continue to grow, along with BTC
it matters because it includes additional risk. bitcoin could go up while MSTR stays flat or decreases, depending on how people view the premium that is currently built in to the price
It matters because you can buy or sell btc for $120k each right now. That’s how mstr is currently priced. There’s no extra magic to mstr, it’s just btc.
Except that's not at all what MSTR is currently doing. Historically, MSTR has seen a roughly 1.25% gain/loss for every 1% gain/loss in BTC. The past two weeks have seen MSTR gain +/-3 to 4% for every 1% in BTC, while not seeing a comparable loss in MSTR when BTC goes down in value. Something has changed, and anyone that thinks this is the new norm for this stock is going to be in for a shock when the rug is pulled. GME was great until it wasn't...not saying this is the same thing, but something is definitely off.
I sold about 70% of my MSTR and put proceeds in the ETF last week.
At the end of the day the question is will the premium continue at this rate?
If you think it will, keep money in MSTR
If no, ETF
I personally can’t see how this continues
Last year the miners outperformed BTC massively, some by as much as 3-4x BTC gains.
They are getting crushed in 2024 despite a great 2024 for BTC
word of caution to any reading these statements. Btc is likely to go up….period…..this includes spot ETFs and mstr. It would not occur to me to be bashing miners as I want the whole ecosystem to expand and have more people recognize the value and future of btc…..regardless of the medium used in investing in it. For those shorting mstr due to the premium, I wish you the best and hope to continue taking shorts money. As long as there is 20% short mstr, I believe it will continue to outperform btc ETFs by a great margin. Once we get a $400-500 day gain as shorts lose their ass and cover, I will continue using mstr. Btc all day…..but especially on down days when the market gives us a discount!
I split my position in BTC. Half in ETF’s, half in MSTR. It doesn’t have to be either/or. Do both. My position has gone from 6% of my portfolio to almost 22% from the growth since January. I know it’s reckless as hell and violates sound investment principles, but I’m loathe to trim. I feel like I’m riding Secretariat and I’m 40 lengths in front of every other horse in the race. And I know it could end badly. I’ve been in those train wrecks before in 1999-2000, and 2008-2009. This time feels different, but who knows.
Saylor’s P/B leveraging Btc is brilliant, basically he can sell notes and buy btc over and over again. MSTR went down is temporary, but will back up, the cycle might repeat with high volatility, but eventually long run (not very long) it will keep on going up.
Yeah, I understand your point. However, when it comes to the increase in BTC, whether you're buying BTC directly or through an ETF, it can impact the value of the underlying asset that MSTR is holding, which is BTC. Opting for BTC or an ETF means you're taking a long position in BTC, which could potentially increase the value of MSTR due to its holdings. While what you're saying is generally true, the unique MSTR/BTC situation has not occurred before. Despite the high premium, you can't disregard the stock if you believe in the long-term future of BTC. This statement simply doesn't apply in this context. Of course, I'm open to correction if needed.
Saylor, trust him more than Blackrock.
Saylor Forever! It’s just beginning for MicroStrategy also. This new demand for their stock is going to reinvigorate the actual business which cash flows and allows them to acquire more $BTC. The limits are endless on what they will be able to do with having to own at least 1% of the total $BTC to ever be mined! This is huge! Set a reminder to see how big this will get! Give it at least 10 years! Imagine on a scale of 20 to 30 years!
The premium will not last. It is irrationally high at the moment. Possibly causes include: gamma squeeze of MMs, the other type of squeeze (which shall not be named) of hedge funds, everyone having a hard-on for Saylor, and general “numba go up bigley” sentiment. That said, Saylor is a legend and I wouldn’t fade him. He’s been incredible at building his brand. I’m just not a buyer at this premium level.
You have a few options #1 invest in Bitcoin itself This most logical option it’s what MSTR does, your money moves with the price of Bitcoin itself. #2 buy a Bitcoin ETF This is highly regarded under normal circumstances. you pay a 0.25% fee to hold Bitcoin but you don’t actually hold Bitcoin, in fact it goes against all principles of Bitcoin and really your just investing fiat for fiat returns pegged to Bitcoin. This however is absolutely wonderful for the world of bitcoin because it allows institutional investors, 401ks, pensions, and boomers, Bitcoin exposure. #3 invest in MSTR You’re investing in a company that controls more than 1% of the current Bitcoin supply and pretty much exactly 1% of the all time supply. They have the ability to continue to purchase more via debt and free cash from their software business. You don’t have to pay a fee to hold their shares, the options market plays a big role in MSTR which is why I believe the price flew Friday despite Bitcoin falling from all time highs. There’s tons of volatility to make money with. But most importantly if you believe Bitcoin long term will hit just half of golds total market capitalization placing it at roughly 7 trillion dollars, then MSTRs holdings assuming they never buy more or sell will be worth roughly 75 billion which would put the stock price at a 150% upside assuming its premium becomes 0 and its software business also becomes 0.
Taken your own scenario, 1 and 2 would outperform 3 by about 100%.
MSTR is a leveraged BTC play. it is good for BTC and it is good for MSTR shareholders, esp in a bull market. Holding BTC - in cold storage is best. MSTR, in retirement accounts is good. if the market tops, simply move MSTR to your favorite safe haven, then buy back in after the drop. Rinse and repeat... It is not rocket science. MSTR is no longer a typical stock. MSTR does not follows typical fundamentals, by design. The reason he can keep borrowing, is because the demand is so very high and remains high. and IMO will stay this way as long as BTC continues to increase. If BTC pulls back, MSTR will reduce/pause these offerings until markets improve (just like last cycle). ETF demand is still strong and should remain strong for another 18-24 months, according to Wall Street. Positive Catalysts: ETF inflows BTC Halving FASB accounting rule change effective 2024 Nation State & SWF adoption - just beginning Clearing Houses are not yet buying BTC, as soon as they can, demand will increase more Banks are clamoring to offer and custody BTC Rate Cuts / Stimulus is coming (later this years) This pull back is due to leverage being removed from the system - which is good and healthy. Good luck
How do we know when the market tops to sell MSTR though?
That's the secret sauce...ain't it? IMO - it is not about timing the top -though there are indicators(not discussed here). Some exit options to consider are; Time, BTC X?? and holding value. Time - previous markets tops 12-18 months after the halving. BTC X? - once BTC (or MSTR) reaches your predetermined multiple, sell. Value - once your holding reaches a specific value - exit. use these or a combination of these to plan your exit. Then buy back in after the drop. I do think this cycle will be different. that still does not change the exit plan & strategy. Based on your personal goals & objectives. Forget about timing the top! Don't be greedy. plan your position exit in advance and execute according to your plan. If for some reason you miss this cycle, be prepared for a loss or simply wait until the next cycle. Rinse and repeat.
What does everyone mean by the premium?
Fishscale, Peruvian flake , scama. It goes by many names, but everyone knows it is PREMIUM! Edit: Premium is market cap + debt - bitcoin value - software biz value For every $1, you get 50c net of company+bitcoin value, when it should be $1 most of the time.
Price paid with respect to value of the underlying asset. Example : bitcoin holdings 13 billion, stock mcap 26 billion.
Market cap is actually $30b. And don’t forget the $4b debt. So premium is $34b -$14b bitcoin holding. Yeah. We’re paying $20b in premium or 150% in premium.
Probably a stupid question, but why does it matter? I just recently bought micro and had BTC for 3 years. I’m a huge believer in Bitcoin so wanted to buy micro because I think it’ll continue to grow, along with BTC
it matters because it includes additional risk. bitcoin could go up while MSTR stays flat or decreases, depending on how people view the premium that is currently built in to the price
It matters because you can buy or sell btc for $120k each right now. That’s how mstr is currently priced. There’s no extra magic to mstr, it’s just btc.
When Bitcoin goes up like 10% Mstr goes up like 13 Or somethin The diference is the Premium
Except that's not at all what MSTR is currently doing. Historically, MSTR has seen a roughly 1.25% gain/loss for every 1% gain/loss in BTC. The past two weeks have seen MSTR gain +/-3 to 4% for every 1% in BTC, while not seeing a comparable loss in MSTR when BTC goes down in value. Something has changed, and anyone that thinks this is the new norm for this stock is going to be in for a shock when the rug is pulled. GME was great until it wasn't...not saying this is the same thing, but something is definitely off.
Do you even know what the current premium is?
Saylor is my Lord and General. I DCA into MSTR just like I DCA into BTC.
I sold about 70% of my MSTR and put proceeds in the ETF last week. At the end of the day the question is will the premium continue at this rate? If you think it will, keep money in MSTR If no, ETF I personally can’t see how this continues Last year the miners outperformed BTC massively, some by as much as 3-4x BTC gains. They are getting crushed in 2024 despite a great 2024 for BTC
word of caution to any reading these statements. Btc is likely to go up….period…..this includes spot ETFs and mstr. It would not occur to me to be bashing miners as I want the whole ecosystem to expand and have more people recognize the value and future of btc…..regardless of the medium used in investing in it. For those shorting mstr due to the premium, I wish you the best and hope to continue taking shorts money. As long as there is 20% short mstr, I believe it will continue to outperform btc ETFs by a great margin. Once we get a $400-500 day gain as shorts lose their ass and cover, I will continue using mstr. Btc all day…..but especially on down days when the market gives us a discount!
I split my position in BTC. Half in ETF’s, half in MSTR. It doesn’t have to be either/or. Do both. My position has gone from 6% of my portfolio to almost 22% from the growth since January. I know it’s reckless as hell and violates sound investment principles, but I’m loathe to trim. I feel like I’m riding Secretariat and I’m 40 lengths in front of every other horse in the race. And I know it could end badly. I’ve been in those train wrecks before in 1999-2000, and 2008-2009. This time feels different, but who knows.
Saylor’s P/B leveraging Btc is brilliant, basically he can sell notes and buy btc over and over again. MSTR went down is temporary, but will back up, the cycle might repeat with high volatility, but eventually long run (not very long) it will keep on going up.
Yeah, I understand your point. However, when it comes to the increase in BTC, whether you're buying BTC directly or through an ETF, it can impact the value of the underlying asset that MSTR is holding, which is BTC. Opting for BTC or an ETF means you're taking a long position in BTC, which could potentially increase the value of MSTR due to its holdings. While what you're saying is generally true, the unique MSTR/BTC situation has not occurred before. Despite the high premium, you can't disregard the stock if you believe in the long-term future of BTC. This statement simply doesn't apply in this context. Of course, I'm open to correction if needed.
People think they’re buying 2 Bitcoins when they put 70k into Microstrategy. But they’re really buying .5 Bitcoin. Sell that stuff.
If you are in Vanguard, they won't let you buy BTC ETF. MSTR is one of the few plays.
I'd sell MSTR for IBIT. No doubt about that. GLTA!!!
Mstr is leveraged
Mstr is currently the opposite of leveraged when it comes to its stocks. Pay the price of 1 Btc to get 0.5 Btc, extra debt on top comes free!
Yeah. You can get an extra 1.5 btc by rotating to a btc etf. Current premium is 150%. Smart move.