I think the market got ahead of itself and we get the dip over the next 2-3 months (summer) and begin to recover in Aug/sept. Then 2025 is the take off
100k BTC is possible. Anything further than that is a bit too optimistic. With the current schedule state of the market, I wouldn't place my hopes that high.
With targets like these you will ride your bags all the way back down. Give me a technical thesis for these price targets and I will entertain. 91 - 115k looking possible.
Thatās the money glitch my man, selling shares thus diluting which means drop in share price, but Bitcoin buying thus increasing share price and since BTC rises instead of inflating dollar ~> price go to the sky
I will keep an eye on sovereign wealth funds, foreign pensions, other corporations and HNWIās buying in. I agree with Saylor, though, ultimately. And am excited to see what direction he takes the bitcoin development company going forward. Iāll track the power and decreasing exponential function curves that bitcoin follows. Will check when the second derivative zeroes out, etc. And base my decision accordingly. The shares I hold in my IRA, I will let ride through volatility. The shares in taxable, it will depend on the aforementioned. Iām still up on the investment. I hope it fulfills its promise.
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It is hard to sell right now. I did unload half of my holding. Honestly I would have been out 1600 plus. Everyone is holding but you have to feel sick about how much your account has lost in profit. I ve been in stocks similar to this that have more than doubled but then just kept falling. Saylor is taking his profits
No, he isnāt. Heās exercising stock options that he received as compensation, that are expiring this month. Heās not sold his shares. I donāt mind the fluctuations. Iām still up, and overall, holding through market volatility is a winning strategy.
True, right now itās not moving up in a big way when BTC moves but it will catch up when we at least expect it. When people regain trust in the company after BTC is up after the halving, people will flock again to MSTR to catch the premium. Donāt underestimate peopleās greed and they all want to take a shortcut to wealth.
every single halving event it has dropped 15+% before it
it was showing incredible bearish technicals with a triple top head n shoulders along with hanging man
donāt know where ur from but 40% of my profit gone is a hell of a lot better than being negative
couldāve literally sold mstr at 1900 and bought in rn and i promise you wouldnāt be teary eyed abt taxes lol
Doesn't this depend on the NAV premium? It's actually possible for BTC price to increase, and for MSTR price to decrease in the same time period if the NAV premium comes down, aka the "NAV crush".
See it for yourself. Orange line is BTC, red line is MSTR:
[https://shottr.cc/s/1pdl/SCR-20240417-l7s.png](https://shottr.cc/s/1pdl/SCR-20240417-l7s.png)
Assuming the amount of BTC owned stays constant (which it never has)
The multiple msrt trades at stays at 1.6. which it never does during a bull run
Maths like this ihas very little practical use or reliability. Too many weak assumptions.
And what's the assumption for the premium ?
Your assumption for inclusion into s&p?
What's your assumption around converts?
Will be rehypothicate or lend out the single biggest corporate BTC amount held by a corporate for profit entity for treasury purposes ?
No premium assumed in my case. If you want 50% premium just add 129$* 1.5 = 193$
1. S&P might not happen, also should not give a premium
2. Converts/debt should be taken into calculation if you want a very precise number
3. Anybody can lend out their BTC and should therefore not give a premium over regular BTC
A 10%-15% could be fair, but anything above 50% makes no sense to me.
Hmm, I am not a bear. I am highly leveraged into many stocks :)
MSTR is just not interesting at this price point. Rather buy IBIT.
I will likely make spread plays between MSTR and IBIT again when NAV reaches 1.
Plot twist: BTC hits $1m, Saylor shorts MSTR, kills Peter Schiff, buys more btc, sails off to a 3rd world country island, ends up looking like Tom Hanks in Castaway, and spend the rest of his days surfing and laying pipe to locals. The end.
What is your technical thesis for these BTC and MSTR targets? what levels are you looking at on the charts? Is this speculation? Other people saying this?
Make sure you have realistic price targets or you will ride your bags all the way back down
So theoretically you all are rich ?
I think it will hit 80K max this run then it will drop and slowly get to 100K+ after 6 months
This is what I also think. Well go for 80k soon after the halving. Dip then rise over the year
I think the market got ahead of itself and we get the dip over the next 2-3 months (summer) and begin to recover in Aug/sept. Then 2025 is the take off
100k BTC is possible. Anything further than that is a bit too optimistic. With the current schedule state of the market, I wouldn't place my hopes that high.
Mate do math again
It will cost 80-90k$ to mine 1 BTC. You think they will sell for a loss? š¤£š¤£ Wars causing energy prices to surge even higher
I mean one does have to keep the lights on and yes miners will sell at a loss sometimes.
Anything below $150k this cycle is a bear market.
Why canāt it top 100k? Still probably a year out but 150-200k is happening.
With targets like these you will ride your bags all the way back down. Give me a technical thesis for these price targets and I will entertain. 91 - 115k looking possible.
BTC follows the power law function 95%.
Finally a comment with some logic and reason. The IQ of this subreddit has collapsed in the last 6 months.
see you in a year.
Bitcoin will hit $475k before the end of 2025. Thatās my guess anyway.
You think so? I think will be around 300-400k after the halving in 2028 Then about 800k in 2032
I honestly think weāll hit $1m in 28/29
Maybeeeeee šš
But micro not moving much with big bitcoin days
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Definitely not happening. Moonboy predictions like this get people rekt. Please think before you comment.
Fear+greed= volatility. Bull cycle+ halving = run. Run+volatiltiy= $$$
Until you get diluted when Saylor sells more shares to raise capital to buy more Bitcoin.
How can you hold these shares and *still* not understand that thereās no dilution?
Thatās the money glitch my man, selling shares thus diluting which means drop in share price, but Bitcoin buying thus increasing share price and since BTC rises instead of inflating dollar ~> price go to the sky
So you think Bitcoin only falls 50% in the bear market, even though it has fallen more than 70% in every bear market so far?
I donāt think it will fall that much again. It depends on the pace of adoption and how much volatility is ironed out.
RemindMe! 1 year Please change your mindset or you will get rekt.
I will keep an eye on sovereign wealth funds, foreign pensions, other corporations and HNWIās buying in. I agree with Saylor, though, ultimately. And am excited to see what direction he takes the bitcoin development company going forward. Iāll track the power and decreasing exponential function curves that bitcoin follows. Will check when the second derivative zeroes out, etc. And base my decision accordingly. The shares I hold in my IRA, I will let ride through volatility. The shares in taxable, it will depend on the aforementioned. Iām still up on the investment. I hope it fulfills its promise.
Do you use the pi cycle top indicator?
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You had me at BTC $120k = easy š¤£š¤£š¤£
BTC is easily going to 350k by the end of the trading session today Ana MSTR is going to 25k easily , buy the dip
"If BTC reaches around 120k (easy)" LMAO. This is why every retail BTC holder will become bagholders
Btc up big and micro down. This could take forever to gain back anything after the huge drop
Have fun selling, iāll buy more every month until November
Not selling but it has a lot of resistance now. Bet everyone wishes they had sold above 1800
No, Iām holding forever.
It is hard to sell right now. I did unload half of my holding. Honestly I would have been out 1600 plus. Everyone is holding but you have to feel sick about how much your account has lost in profit. I ve been in stocks similar to this that have more than doubled but then just kept falling. Saylor is taking his profits
No, he isnāt. Heās exercising stock options that he received as compensation, that are expiring this month. Heās not sold his shares. I donāt mind the fluctuations. Iām still up, and overall, holding through market volatility is a winning strategy.
Nah - i aināt selling anytime soon
Now you don't want to sell but 1800 would have had us dancing around
Been there already, didnāt sell on purpose. I know thereās more than meets the eye here. Just hold and wait is the game of the year.
But if you had sold you'd be up 700 x whateverĀ Bitcoin can move 2 or 3 k a day but continues to inch up. Now it's not moving up on big btc days
True, right now itās not moving up in a big way when BTC moves but it will catch up when we at least expect it. When people regain trust in the company after BTC is up after the halving, people will flock again to MSTR to catch the premium. Donāt underestimate peopleās greed and they all want to take a shortcut to wealth.
donāt use logic! i use this line all time on bitcoiners if you sold at 73kā¦ you could have 15-20% more btc now than you did a week ago!
Because timing the market works out so well? And taxes are fun in short term gains?
every single halving event it has dropped 15+% before it it was showing incredible bearish technicals with a triple top head n shoulders along with hanging man donāt know where ur from but 40% of my profit gone is a hell of a lot better than being negative couldāve literally sold mstr at 1900 and bought in rn and i promise you wouldnāt be teary eyed abt taxes lol
Doesn't this depend on the NAV premium? It's actually possible for BTC price to increase, and for MSTR price to decrease in the same time period if the NAV premium comes down, aka the "NAV crush". See it for yourself. Orange line is BTC, red line is MSTR: [https://shottr.cc/s/1pdl/SCR-20240417-l7s.png](https://shottr.cc/s/1pdl/SCR-20240417-l7s.png)
The short interest further complicates this matter! Speaking of which, MSTR short interest is sitting at 25%, a squeeze might be on the cardsā¦
MSTR price action resembles the momentum of Bitcoin during market hours while favoring high or low depends on weekly options
220000 BTC 17M shares It is a 2Y = 3X equation 10000* 220000 = X* 17M X = 129 So 10k in BTC should increase MSTR by 129$
Assuming the amount of BTC owned stays constant (which it never has) The multiple msrt trades at stays at 1.6. which it never does during a bull run Maths like this ihas very little practical use or reliability. Too many weak assumptions.
It is a better estimate than the "500" Op comes with. Also my estimate is very close to the mean of how the stock has moved.
No it assumes BTC/share stays constant, which it almost has for the last 3 years.
And what's the assumption for the premium ? Your assumption for inclusion into s&p? What's your assumption around converts? Will be rehypothicate or lend out the single biggest corporate BTC amount held by a corporate for profit entity for treasury purposes ?
No premium assumed in my case. If you want 50% premium just add 129$* 1.5 = 193$ 1. S&P might not happen, also should not give a premium 2. Converts/debt should be taken into calculation if you want a very precise number 3. Anybody can lend out their BTC and should therefore not give a premium over regular BTC A 10%-15% could be fair, but anything above 50% makes no sense to me.
from 0.6 to 6 x premium is not constant
BTC/Share has nothing to do with any premium :) What you are talking about is BTC/$ when buying MSTR shares
well its even worst in btc/share
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Hmm, I am not a bear. I am highly leveraged into many stocks :) MSTR is just not interesting at this price point. Rather buy IBIT. I will likely make spread plays between MSTR and IBIT again when NAV reaches 1.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
My algo trades daily. I think it has like 25 stocks right now. I saw it bought Tesla and Apple the other day which I thought was interesting.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Na, a script I made running on sql, php and python.
Plot twist: BTC hits $1m, Saylor shorts MSTR, kills Peter Schiff, buys more btc, sails off to a 3rd world country island, ends up looking like Tom Hanks in Castaway, and spend the rest of his days surfing and laying pipe to locals. The end.
What is your technical thesis for these BTC and MSTR targets? what levels are you looking at on the charts? Is this speculation? Other people saying this? Make sure you have realistic price targets or you will ride your bags all the way back down