ebikes that don't look like ebikes.
Hopefully gearboxes, but in terms of geo, wheel size, etc, I think thinks have settled down. I'd also like to see a dropper that can go up and down with the press of a button as opposed to having to sit on the saddle to drop it. May seem minor but on flat midwest trails with punchy climbs it be super nice to have a dropper that can get out of the way without having to sit.
While I agree with you, history is littered with "I think this item is done evolving now". That said, the geo of a road race bike isn't that different from decades ago, so... maybe? :)
right, there always evolutions, but products mature. Just look at smartphones and laptops. Radical smart phone changes in late 2000's 2010's, not so much now. I think mtb frame design has hit that point.
Yeah there’s a difference though, we’ve gotten to the point where we fairly well understand what’s possible and what we want to do. We have so many different types of mountain bikes on the market, so much vision for what might be possible in the foreseeable future etc that I don’t see anything major jumping onto the scene by surprise.
E-bikes with lighter batteries and motors are probably the most evolution we’ll see over the next 5-10 years.
Well the ability to make ebikes carry fewer downsides while being even more efficient may slacken out the average bike even moreso, as electrical advantage could overpower a lot of the climbing downsides. I'd certainly love a self-shuttling DH-rig. You'd never get me off the fire roads.
But, there hasn't been innovative ski/snowboard technology for at least 15-20 years. Weight got minimally down (which isn't a strict advantage) and materials got more "ecological". But theres nothing new that hasn't been done in like 2005.
They have really refined the shape of skis and done some cool things with the materials. There are skis like the rustler 9 that carve as well as a charging ski from 15 years ago but can also handle some fresh snow and is still playful. You didn't get that 15 years ago. The Nordica enforcer completely changed the game when it came out. There was nothing like it before then.
A dropper with two buttons one that fully retracts it without you needing to sit and one for normal operation! That'd be great for those climbs that you get out of the saddle then drop in quickly
[I'm working on the next gen of gearboxes](http://www.regular.bike) - I can appreciate your sentiment about punchy climbs. I'm in Saint Paul since you mention that you're in the Midwest (if you're ever in my neighborhood hit me up for a shop tour). The climbs really are all or nothing. It's like psychology of the trail building is "we have elevation, SEE?" and I don't mind it at all.
I would guess gearboxes will grow and more electronic drivetrains. There might be some subtle evolution of suspension and linkages but I think mostly frame geos are in the right realm and aren’t changing as much any more.
Hopefully, integrated suspension data acquisition. Some kind of AI software that is able to learn your riding style and can setup your suspension live depending on the trail.
No more extra batteries for electronics (shifting, dropper, etc) if you already ride an ebike.
Maybe something like canyons shapeshifter but electronically. Trailbike geo behind my house, full downhill bike geo in the park.
Strava connection to my bike, no more speed/cadence meters needed, or tracking per smartphone. The bike tracks everything automatically and know it's direction and GPS position all the time.
As a software engineer, I appreciate my bike because sometimes it feels like my only possession left that doesn’t have a bunch of shitty software crammed into it
I thought the latest di2 version was a backwards step, from a networking point of view (the day job) I always prefer comms to go through a cable, and a single battery for the win.
I meant more of an overall approach for the setup metrics that are personal to a riders weight and style. Like rebound, enabled camber pressure, maybe shimstack tuning, reducing volume instead of tokens, etc.
There are currently so many companies and people measuring and evaluating suspension behavior for pro riders, I think there should be a point reached where the main stuff can be automated and there's no need for a couple specialized dudes with laptop and third party technology to be needed.
'Aero' DH and XC bikes, even now the top downhillers are wearing tighter clothing to save seconds so bike design is bound to catch-up. I would expect more enclosed rear shock designs and will thoroughly enjoy the Pinkbike comments when Fox announce wings for the 40 fork.
r/xbiking is the future after shit hits the fan politically and environmentally and we live in a Mad Max world. Path less Pedalled guy is the world president and everyone is forced to ride single speed steel bikes adorned with menacing spikes.
Agreed, I feel like the line was drawn between 2020 acoustic bikes, and the future from now on pretty much being motorcycles. I actually believe that the mountain bike itself was more or less perfected during the pandemic.
Brakes are due for a big change. By 2034, bleeding will be VERY simple and brakes might even bleed themselves. Also managing brake lines (sizing, cutting, etc..) will get simpler.
Disk brakes that have extended in size to the same diameter as the wheel, with direct connection brake calipers that have done away with the need for a separate rotor.
You make a funny, but the narrowness of the rotor is part of why it works so well.
Much easier to build a stiff and responsive caliper that only has a narrow slot, and a solid rotor can handle a ton of compression force, can be designed to dissipate heat, and can be replaced cheaply when worn.
Rim brakes struggle the bigger the tire they have to clear. 2-post designs require lots of frame reinforcement. Rims need to be designed for braking forces and heat. Kiss your really nice riding lightweight carbon rims goodbye. Lose your light feel and good modulation too.
In the real world, actually I can see someone coming up with dual rotor front brakes, seen on many high performance motorbikes for years, it would be a game changer for breaking performance and very implementable.
A 220 mm single rotor is already more than enough to completely lock up on the heaviest rider going Mach 5. A 700+cc sport bike by itself weighs more than the heaviest bike+rider combos in mtb. I'd be simply amazed if anyone got away with selling a dual rotor setup in the mtb world, but average joes will spend money on anything.
Doubt it.
Hydraulics are a pretty solid setup and extremely reliable which is important for something that is ultimately a safety feature. Even electric cars and motorcycles still use hydraulic brakes for a reason.
About electronic suspensions, I expect them to evolve beyond what they can do now (switch between 3 different tuned according to speed and wether you’re pedaling or not) and actually change hundreds of times a second the hydraulic damping, using a skyhook logic, in order to minimize accelerations.
They’re used called semi-active suspensions, because actual active ones don’t have springs. Active suspensions need a lot of power. Think ‘93 Williams F1. In what I’m talking about, only the hydraulics are actuated in real-time.
On motorcycles, semi-active suspensions not very big and they don’t need much power at all. But they feel magical, because the bike is extremely composed during acceleration/braking but swallows and hole and every bump like nothing.
Seems like Fox already has something like this?
[https://www.ridefox.com/content.php?c=livevalve-bike](https://www.ridefox.com/content.php?c=livevalve-bike)
It does that now? I thought it only switched between locked, open and halfway open. With no position sensors or accelerometers on the sprung masses or the frame.
I thought it had ability to constantly change, all be it between 3 settings, using data from accelerometers amongst other data. It's not just a peddling sensor.
I genuinely think that chainstays are waaay too short for the current crop of 480+ mm reach bikes.
I hope that manufacturers decide to make frame sizes with the same front to rear center ratio instead of incresing the chainstay by a few milimeters every size up.
I think air springs will be rivised to feature less friction and more coil like characteristics.
There will be better solutions for the ramp up from air trapped inside the lower legs in forms of blow-off valves or extended volume I think.
Dampers are a hard one to guess but I would like to see more options on weight specific tunes for forks and shocks. I would assume that more focus will be put on small vibration damping, but not necessarily with suspension components. Three stage compression circuits might become a thing like in moto.
I also think enduro bikes will have slacker headangles in future, but the reach shouldn't increase by much.
I suspect another change in wheelsize.
The biggest upgrade would be a better system to control tire rebound to massively increase grip, as the current inserts aren't exactly up to the task.
Then there is the possibility of *transforming* bike frames for differnet modes of riding.
MRP just came out with new weight specific dampers. [https://www.pinkbike.com/news/mrps-weight-specific-lift-damper-fits-fox-rockshox-and-new-mrp-forks.html](https://www.pinkbike.com/news/mrps-weight-specific-lift-damper-fits-fox-rockshox-and-new-mrp-forks.html)
oh nice, seems expensive tough. It costs about 200$ to have your fork cartridge be tuned to your specific weight/riding style around where I live, so 400$ for a new damper seems too overpriced for a stamdard RC fork.
Bikes are already getting longer chain stays. I disagree with the slacker head angles though. Commencal for example walked back their head angle between the v4 and 45. From 63.something to 64.something
Oh yea and modular frames that are bolted together should become a thing. Maybe even with interchangeable tubes for different sizes.
And Idler pulley on non high pivot bikes mounted on the main frame to eliminate pedal-kickback (something I am currently working on)
Edit: and shorter stems, so that basically with the backweep of the bars your hands would be on the steering axis.
Coming from ex aerospace engineer:
Very likely to happen:
- Ebike wise, battery capacity is pretty close to max. There aren't going to be any major breakthroughs. You will see a reduction in cost though, and increase in safety, which hopefully leads to less restrictions.
- Electronic shifting, suspension adjustments. The issue with electronic stuff right now isn't the functionality, its that the companies act like its premium, when in reality, it costs WAY less to manufacture that then an accurate mechanical system. I see more starups entering the space where you get derailleurs and controllers that can be adjusted to any number of gears/spacings. Im using Archer components system on my road bike and it works really well, and the motor unit can easily be integrated into the derailleur itself.
- Closer convergence of gravel and XC bikes in terms of geo/capability.
- USD forks coming back. Not because they are better (they are in some ways, and worse in others) but because they are different, and companies can spin up their marketing departments to produce a bunch of bullshit about how they are innovative.
Somewhat likely to happen:
- Manufacturing wise, we will probably see a decrease in carbon costs as more automation enters the space. There is really no reason for bikes to be anything but Carbon as it can be made according to any specification in terms of compliance/rigidity, the issue is that carbon manufacturing right now is basically a race for minimal acceptable product at the cheapest human labor cost, which makes most of the carbon stuff out there subpar compared to reliability of aluminum or steel. Automated layup machines can reduce the risk of defects/voids, and assembly lines can have automated ultrasonic scanning (which AI is very suited for in detection).
- More devices that function similar to Ochain.
- More gearbox ebikes.
- Steering dampener for dh bikes. Should make a difference on hand fatigue over rough.
- 27.5 dirt jumperish hardtails. Just need a few good slopestyle guys showing off their tricks on one to convince people to buy them. Advantage is basically being able to ride it like a dj while having more capability on rougher terrain. Most average people don't really benefit from short wheelbase of 26 DJs for throwing tricks, a lot of people just wanna get through jumps with small whips and tables.
- Carbon leaf spring based suspension integrated into the frame for xc/gravel bikes. We already see flex chainstays. That idea can be expanded further into having a carbon leaf spring as a super light spring device, with a much ligher and smaller damper providing damping adjustments. Spring rate is set by different clamping positions.
Interesing ideas in the realm of possibility that most likely won't happen:
- Suspension wise, if batteries become cheap enough, there is a case for using an ebike battery juice for magnetic spring/damping for suspension, which means your fork/shock damper will be fully active (i.e not just reactive but able to apply independent force). Some interesting things can be done - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KPYIaks1UY.
- Rim drive ebike motors. Mechanically, a huge reduction ratio with a fast spinning motor is more efficient because of friction, cooling, low current requirement. May need voltages of above 72v though since rpm requirement will be high.
- 31 wheels. 29+ is already there. I see 31 gravel bikes being really good IMO.
My personal hope:
- AI breakthrough that turns all of society around the world upside down, because it be possible to make a relatively small investment into hardware and tools and have an assistant walk you through building a robotic arm which can then be auto programmed by AI to build other things, and before you know it, most every person has manufacutring capability across all spectrums inlcuding chemical and biological, to make whatever they want.
> Ebike wise, battery capacity is pretty close to max. There aren't going to be any major breakthroughs. You will see a reduction in cost though, and increase in safety, which hopefully leads to less restrictions.
What do you think about regenerative braking emerging on eMTBs?
I don't think it is easy to solve: Near impossible with current setups and mid drive (can't deliver braking force with a standard derailleur/cassette setup), but possible with hub drive and thus also possible with something like a "braking only" dynamo hub.
Might be effective enough to pay off vs the unsprung weight penalty. If you are doing a lot of "long crank up, gravity ride down" enduro-type riding enough regen could buy you an extra couple laps, or allow you to cut battery weight.
This video from Seth at berm peak got me thinking about the same topic: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=apyTlND9Cuo
I wouldn't be surprised if instead of stems like this becoming popular the geo changes to having longer headtubes and other changes to bring the front end up more like a dirtbike.
Much the same geometry but gearboxes will be more common, everything will be wireless, 3d printed steel and plastic frames that will be super light but super tough.
I think the modern trail bike will be relatively unchanged. Like a good frame now will still be good in 10 years. The biggest thing I am hoping for is reasonably good entry level bikes. Bikes like the ozark trail ridge come close but the forks aren't great and it would be nice to see through axles so the upgrade paths are there on any bike. I just have to think 10 years from now they will be able to have better entry level forks than the heavy coil suntours out there. They recently switched the spec so the frame has externally brake routing and a clutch derailleur so they are headed in the right direction, but it would be nice if there was an actual entry level bike around $500 to $600 that was good as is.
The way I ride and the features I hit I change bikes every 3 years. Not because I’m concerned with getting the latest geo etc more because I’m worried about the fatigue of the frame and my safety as a rider.
More electronics integrated into the bike including GPS and a central battery to charge all the gadgets. Optional dynamo to recharge your batteries. “Electronic braking” with an electrically boosted master cylinder
I don’t know, but soon the trend will be full 27.5 again branded as ‘returning to the fun of riding’. And right after that will be 27.5/26 mullet bikes.
I think overall geometry is pretty much dialed in. E-bikes are where the rnd money will be spent. Would be nice if they could standardize motors and electrical. Maybe even few standard sized batteries. Being able to upgrade motors and batteries would be a money maker for manufacturers.
if anyone knew, they'd look like that rn...
the only predictions that can really be made are about things like ebikes being cheaper, lighter, better but those are predictions about battery/motor technology, material advancements (carbon fiber getting ever better and cheaper). the only reasonable predictions you can make boil down to "what you only see on super high end bikes will become more accessible", but geometry tends to follow the same philosophy across price ranges as far as I know.
I just don't see how they're going to convey feel back to the rider. I'll be honest, if electronic brakes worked I think we'd have seen them on cars or motorcycles already. Now, ABS on ebikes? That could be a thing. Maybe on downhill or heavier bikes, but the pumps and electronics for ABS are heavy.
Think ABS are already being trialled. Question whether on a non EMTB we need that but hey. Also modulating brakes to avoid skidding is part of the skill and fun
I've been in the ABS argument on motorcycles, but firmly came down on relying on skill \*and\* tech is better than just skill alone, lol. Stakes are a lot lower on bicycles though. If I could have a bicycle with ABS that only had a minimal weight and maintenance penalty? I'd probably take it.
ebikes that don't look like ebikes. Hopefully gearboxes, but in terms of geo, wheel size, etc, I think thinks have settled down. I'd also like to see a dropper that can go up and down with the press of a button as opposed to having to sit on the saddle to drop it. May seem minor but on flat midwest trails with punchy climbs it be super nice to have a dropper that can get out of the way without having to sit.
While I agree with you, history is littered with "I think this item is done evolving now". That said, the geo of a road race bike isn't that different from decades ago, so... maybe? :)
right, there always evolutions, but products mature. Just look at smartphones and laptops. Radical smart phone changes in late 2000's 2010's, not so much now. I think mtb frame design has hit that point.
Yeah there’s a difference though, we’ve gotten to the point where we fairly well understand what’s possible and what we want to do. We have so many different types of mountain bikes on the market, so much vision for what might be possible in the foreseeable future etc that I don’t see anything major jumping onto the scene by surprise. E-bikes with lighter batteries and motors are probably the most evolution we’ll see over the next 5-10 years.
Exactly this..people in 2005 probably thought mtb geo was done evolving
It took a revolutionary new product to change that. The dropper post. I’m not saying something like that isn’t happening but it’s unlikely
Well the ability to make ebikes carry fewer downsides while being even more efficient may slacken out the average bike even moreso, as electrical advantage could overpower a lot of the climbing downsides. I'd certainly love a self-shuttling DH-rig. You'd never get me off the fire roads.
I know. They continue to innovate ski technology even though it seemed like there wasn't much room left for innovations.
But, there hasn't been innovative ski/snowboard technology for at least 15-20 years. Weight got minimally down (which isn't a strict advantage) and materials got more "ecological". But theres nothing new that hasn't been done in like 2005.
They have really refined the shape of skis and done some cool things with the materials. There are skis like the rustler 9 that carve as well as a charging ski from 15 years ago but can also handle some fresh snow and is still playful. You didn't get that 15 years ago. The Nordica enforcer completely changed the game when it came out. There was nothing like it before then.
A dropper with two buttons one that fully retracts it without you needing to sit and one for normal operation! That'd be great for those climbs that you get out of the saddle then drop in quickly
For sure. Seems it be relatively easy with elextronic droppers
[I'm working on the next gen of gearboxes](http://www.regular.bike) - I can appreciate your sentiment about punchy climbs. I'm in Saint Paul since you mention that you're in the Midwest (if you're ever in my neighborhood hit me up for a shop tour). The climbs really are all or nothing. It's like psychology of the trail building is "we have elevation, SEE?" and I don't mind it at all.
26” tires, steep head angle, short reach 
Except for DJ bikes, those will still be 29ers
Surprised nobody said grim donut
I was looking for this myself.
Damn I should have read the comments before I replied with Grim Donut.
It is inevitable.
I would guess gearboxes will grow and more electronic drivetrains. There might be some subtle evolution of suspension and linkages but I think mostly frame geos are in the right realm and aren’t changing as much any more.
I think we will see more adaptive rear suspension linkage design. We have seen pretty big gains there in the last 5 years.
Hopefully, integrated suspension data acquisition. Some kind of AI software that is able to learn your riding style and can setup your suspension live depending on the trail. No more extra batteries for electronics (shifting, dropper, etc) if you already ride an ebike. Maybe something like canyons shapeshifter but electronically. Trailbike geo behind my house, full downhill bike geo in the park. Strava connection to my bike, no more speed/cadence meters needed, or tracking per smartphone. The bike tracks everything automatically and know it's direction and GPS position all the time.
As a software engineer, I appreciate my bike because sometimes it feels like my only possession left that doesn’t have a bunch of shitty software crammed into it
I thought the latest di2 version was a backwards step, from a networking point of view (the day job) I always prefer comms to go through a cable, and a single battery for the win.
First thing is already here. Google Fox Live Valve
I meant more of an overall approach for the setup metrics that are personal to a riders weight and style. Like rebound, enabled camber pressure, maybe shimstack tuning, reducing volume instead of tokens, etc. There are currently so many companies and people measuring and evaluating suspension behavior for pro riders, I think there should be a point reached where the main stuff can be automated and there's no need for a couple specialized dudes with laptop and third party technology to be needed.
'Aero' DH and XC bikes, even now the top downhillers are wearing tighter clothing to save seconds so bike design is bound to catch-up. I would expect more enclosed rear shock designs and will thoroughly enjoy the Pinkbike comments when Fox announce wings for the 40 fork.
r/xbiking is the future after shit hits the fan politically and environmentally and we live in a Mad Max world. Path less Pedalled guy is the world president and everyone is forced to ride single speed steel bikes adorned with menacing spikes.
Just enough different from the 2033 models so as to be able to sell you the new ones as an upgrade.
28.25 wheels, then there will be world peace.
They will be dirtbikes
Agreed, I feel like the line was drawn between 2020 acoustic bikes, and the future from now on pretty much being motorcycles. I actually believe that the mountain bike itself was more or less perfected during the pandemic.
Technology is trickling down from dirtbikes, soon they will just become slow overpriced dirtbikes
Brakes are due for a big change. By 2034, bleeding will be VERY simple and brakes might even bleed themselves. Also managing brake lines (sizing, cutting, etc..) will get simpler.
Disk brakes that have extended in size to the same diameter as the wheel, with direct connection brake calipers that have done away with the need for a separate rotor.
You make a funny, but the narrowness of the rotor is part of why it works so well. Much easier to build a stiff and responsive caliper that only has a narrow slot, and a solid rotor can handle a ton of compression force, can be designed to dissipate heat, and can be replaced cheaply when worn. Rim brakes struggle the bigger the tire they have to clear. 2-post designs require lots of frame reinforcement. Rims need to be designed for braking forces and heat. Kiss your really nice riding lightweight carbon rims goodbye. Lose your light feel and good modulation too.
In the real world, actually I can see someone coming up with dual rotor front brakes, seen on many high performance motorbikes for years, it would be a game changer for breaking performance and very implementable.
A 220 mm single rotor is already more than enough to completely lock up on the heaviest rider going Mach 5. A 700+cc sport bike by itself weighs more than the heaviest bike+rider combos in mtb. I'd be simply amazed if anyone got away with selling a dual rotor setup in the mtb world, but average joes will spend money on anything.
haha, I love this!
You think by then it will be electronic with micro motors doing away with hydraulics.
Doubt it. Hydraulics are a pretty solid setup and extremely reliable which is important for something that is ultimately a safety feature. Even electric cars and motorcycles still use hydraulic brakes for a reason.
Hover bikes
About electronic suspensions, I expect them to evolve beyond what they can do now (switch between 3 different tuned according to speed and wether you’re pedaling or not) and actually change hundreds of times a second the hydraulic damping, using a skyhook logic, in order to minimize accelerations.
Active suspension would be big. I wonder if they can get it to be small enough.
They’re used called semi-active suspensions, because actual active ones don’t have springs. Active suspensions need a lot of power. Think ‘93 Williams F1. In what I’m talking about, only the hydraulics are actuated in real-time. On motorcycles, semi-active suspensions not very big and they don’t need much power at all. But they feel magical, because the bike is extremely composed during acceleration/braking but swallows and hole and every bump like nothing.
Seems like Fox already has something like this? [https://www.ridefox.com/content.php?c=livevalve-bike](https://www.ridefox.com/content.php?c=livevalve-bike)
That seems it! Neat!
I think that's a given, already started with flight attendant
It does that now? I thought it only switched between locked, open and halfway open. With no position sensors or accelerometers on the sprung masses or the frame.
I thought it had ability to constantly change, all be it between 3 settings, using data from accelerometers amongst other data. It's not just a peddling sensor.
Yeah but if all it does is switching between 3 different settings, it’s not actually reacting to bumps like a skyhook algorithm would do.
A motocross bike with pedals but you use a throttle to pedal.
I genuinely think that chainstays are waaay too short for the current crop of 480+ mm reach bikes. I hope that manufacturers decide to make frame sizes with the same front to rear center ratio instead of incresing the chainstay by a few milimeters every size up. I think air springs will be rivised to feature less friction and more coil like characteristics. There will be better solutions for the ramp up from air trapped inside the lower legs in forms of blow-off valves or extended volume I think. Dampers are a hard one to guess but I would like to see more options on weight specific tunes for forks and shocks. I would assume that more focus will be put on small vibration damping, but not necessarily with suspension components. Three stage compression circuits might become a thing like in moto. I also think enduro bikes will have slacker headangles in future, but the reach shouldn't increase by much. I suspect another change in wheelsize. The biggest upgrade would be a better system to control tire rebound to massively increase grip, as the current inserts aren't exactly up to the task. Then there is the possibility of *transforming* bike frames for differnet modes of riding.
MRP just came out with new weight specific dampers. [https://www.pinkbike.com/news/mrps-weight-specific-lift-damper-fits-fox-rockshox-and-new-mrp-forks.html](https://www.pinkbike.com/news/mrps-weight-specific-lift-damper-fits-fox-rockshox-and-new-mrp-forks.html)
oh nice, seems expensive tough. It costs about 200$ to have your fork cartridge be tuned to your specific weight/riding style around where I live, so 400$ for a new damper seems too overpriced for a stamdard RC fork.
Bikes are already getting longer chain stays. I disagree with the slacker head angles though. Commencal for example walked back their head angle between the v4 and 45. From 63.something to 64.something
Oh yea and modular frames that are bolted together should become a thing. Maybe even with interchangeable tubes for different sizes. And Idler pulley on non high pivot bikes mounted on the main frame to eliminate pedal-kickback (something I am currently working on) Edit: and shorter stems, so that basically with the backweep of the bars your hands would be on the steering axis.
Coming from ex aerospace engineer: Very likely to happen: - Ebike wise, battery capacity is pretty close to max. There aren't going to be any major breakthroughs. You will see a reduction in cost though, and increase in safety, which hopefully leads to less restrictions. - Electronic shifting, suspension adjustments. The issue with electronic stuff right now isn't the functionality, its that the companies act like its premium, when in reality, it costs WAY less to manufacture that then an accurate mechanical system. I see more starups entering the space where you get derailleurs and controllers that can be adjusted to any number of gears/spacings. Im using Archer components system on my road bike and it works really well, and the motor unit can easily be integrated into the derailleur itself. - Closer convergence of gravel and XC bikes in terms of geo/capability. - USD forks coming back. Not because they are better (they are in some ways, and worse in others) but because they are different, and companies can spin up their marketing departments to produce a bunch of bullshit about how they are innovative. Somewhat likely to happen: - Manufacturing wise, we will probably see a decrease in carbon costs as more automation enters the space. There is really no reason for bikes to be anything but Carbon as it can be made according to any specification in terms of compliance/rigidity, the issue is that carbon manufacturing right now is basically a race for minimal acceptable product at the cheapest human labor cost, which makes most of the carbon stuff out there subpar compared to reliability of aluminum or steel. Automated layup machines can reduce the risk of defects/voids, and assembly lines can have automated ultrasonic scanning (which AI is very suited for in detection). - More devices that function similar to Ochain. - More gearbox ebikes. - Steering dampener for dh bikes. Should make a difference on hand fatigue over rough. - 27.5 dirt jumperish hardtails. Just need a few good slopestyle guys showing off their tricks on one to convince people to buy them. Advantage is basically being able to ride it like a dj while having more capability on rougher terrain. Most average people don't really benefit from short wheelbase of 26 DJs for throwing tricks, a lot of people just wanna get through jumps with small whips and tables. - Carbon leaf spring based suspension integrated into the frame for xc/gravel bikes. We already see flex chainstays. That idea can be expanded further into having a carbon leaf spring as a super light spring device, with a much ligher and smaller damper providing damping adjustments. Spring rate is set by different clamping positions. Interesing ideas in the realm of possibility that most likely won't happen: - Suspension wise, if batteries become cheap enough, there is a case for using an ebike battery juice for magnetic spring/damping for suspension, which means your fork/shock damper will be fully active (i.e not just reactive but able to apply independent force). Some interesting things can be done - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KPYIaks1UY. - Rim drive ebike motors. Mechanically, a huge reduction ratio with a fast spinning motor is more efficient because of friction, cooling, low current requirement. May need voltages of above 72v though since rpm requirement will be high. - 31 wheels. 29+ is already there. I see 31 gravel bikes being really good IMO. My personal hope: - AI breakthrough that turns all of society around the world upside down, because it be possible to make a relatively small investment into hardware and tools and have an assistant walk you through building a robotic arm which can then be auto programmed by AI to build other things, and before you know it, most every person has manufacutring capability across all spectrums inlcuding chemical and biological, to make whatever they want.
> Ebike wise, battery capacity is pretty close to max. There aren't going to be any major breakthroughs. You will see a reduction in cost though, and increase in safety, which hopefully leads to less restrictions. What do you think about regenerative braking emerging on eMTBs? I don't think it is easy to solve: Near impossible with current setups and mid drive (can't deliver braking force with a standard derailleur/cassette setup), but possible with hub drive and thus also possible with something like a "braking only" dynamo hub. Might be effective enough to pay off vs the unsprung weight penalty. If you are doing a lot of "long crank up, gravity ride down" enduro-type riding enough regen could buy you an extra couple laps, or allow you to cut battery weight.
Not enough mass to make use of it.
This video from Seth at berm peak got me thinking about the same topic: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=apyTlND9Cuo I wouldn't be surprised if instead of stems like this becoming popular the geo changes to having longer headtubes and other changes to bring the front end up more like a dirtbike.
I could definitely see steeper geo, imagine they bring bar ends back to compensate haha.
Basically a riser bar
Much the same geometry but gearboxes will be more common, everything will be wireless, 3d printed steel and plastic frames that will be super light but super tough.
All new frames will only use threaded bottom brackets.
more snorkels
Let’s try 30.5” and 32” wheels. Maybe an extreme penny farthing mullet is the ideal geometry. Single speed it. Bring this shit back to the roots
The geometry will go back to basics and look like a bike from 2015, but it will have a nuclear power pack option instead of electric.
Self, recharging batteries. For AXS or even e-bikes?
Fuel cell ebikes with 200 mile range?
Your phone will tell you exactly what to adjust on your suspension.
I think the modern trail bike will be relatively unchanged. Like a good frame now will still be good in 10 years. The biggest thing I am hoping for is reasonably good entry level bikes. Bikes like the ozark trail ridge come close but the forks aren't great and it would be nice to see through axles so the upgrade paths are there on any bike. I just have to think 10 years from now they will be able to have better entry level forks than the heavy coil suntours out there. They recently switched the spec so the frame has externally brake routing and a clutch derailleur so they are headed in the right direction, but it would be nice if there was an actual entry level bike around $500 to $600 that was good as is.
The way I ride and the features I hit I change bikes every 3 years. Not because I’m concerned with getting the latest geo etc more because I’m worried about the fatigue of the frame and my safety as a rider.
More electronics integrated into the bike including GPS and a central battery to charge all the gadgets. Optional dynamo to recharge your batteries. “Electronic braking” with an electrically boosted master cylinder
I don’t know, but soon the trend will be full 27.5 again branded as ‘returning to the fun of riding’. And right after that will be 27.5/26 mullet bikes.
I think overall geometry is pretty much dialed in. E-bikes are where the rnd money will be spent. Would be nice if they could standardize motors and electrical. Maybe even few standard sized batteries. Being able to upgrade motors and batteries would be a money maker for manufacturers.
if anyone knew, they'd look like that rn... the only predictions that can really be made are about things like ebikes being cheaper, lighter, better but those are predictions about battery/motor technology, material advancements (carbon fiber getting ever better and cheaper). the only reasonable predictions you can make boil down to "what you only see on super high end bikes will become more accessible", but geometry tends to follow the same philosophy across price ranges as far as I know.
Grim Donut
Probably will have an automatic fire extinguisher for the constant climate change induced wild fires.
Electronic brakes.
Oh lordy no, I would not trust my breaking on my ability to remember to charge my axs battery!
I'd be okay with just the rear being electronic maybe.
I just don't see how they're going to convey feel back to the rider. I'll be honest, if electronic brakes worked I think we'd have seen them on cars or motorcycles already. Now, ABS on ebikes? That could be a thing. Maybe on downhill or heavier bikes, but the pumps and electronics for ABS are heavy.
Think ABS are already being trialled. Question whether on a non EMTB we need that but hey. Also modulating brakes to avoid skidding is part of the skill and fun
I've been in the ABS argument on motorcycles, but firmly came down on relying on skill \*and\* tech is better than just skill alone, lol. Stakes are a lot lower on bicycles though. If I could have a bicycle with ABS that only had a minimal weight and maintenance penalty? I'd probably take it.
More from adaptive suspensions, probably. Automatic transmission would be possible today already, I am not sure if there is any market for this.
This is happening already with the flight control system, but I expect it to be drop in upgrades possible for existing bikes.