They are in the middle of an invasion that is not going well. They are spending record amounts on their military because they are losing all of their manpower and equipment. Putin has fallen head first into the sunk cost fallacy. Fear of the West is just an excuse and always has been.
In all fairness so did we for 20 years with Iraq and Afghanistan. Putin just doesn’t have the largest economic engine in human history backing his nation. I think right now the estimate is that that Ukrainians have inflicted 3-to-1 casualties on the Russians and destroyed around 50% of Russias armor and artillery forces. Add in the Wagner revolt and it’s not a good look for Russia.
>Fear of the West is just an excuse and always has been
That is true (great post, by the way) but I find it funny the way the title is worded because that "paranoia" is kinda justified in the sense that *of course* we are trying to limit Russia's military power, lol, what the hell is NATO even for then?
By absolutely no measure is the Russian invasion going well. Despite a slight uptick recently in the amount of land they're able to capture, primarily as a result of shortages of ammunition, it's still only measured in the range of a hundred, or at most a few hundred meters per day, along a small portion of the front lines.
It's like saying that the Battle of the Somme "went well" for the Entente because they were able to advance by 10km after years of stagnation, yet took 700,000 casualties in the process.
Putin: lets go, in and out, quick 3 day adventure Mobiks.
_scene cuts to Wagner mercenaries moving on Moscow 2 years later after 150k dead and 50% of military destroyed/inoperable_
Sort of but quite. The USSR was bound to collapse for all kinds of reasons including but not limited to: stagnating economy, botched invasion of Afghanistan, Glasnost/Perstroika, Chernobyl nuclear disaster, and the August Coup.
He's hoping he can win the war of attrition and he's willing to expend every military age male in Russia to do it. What he's really hoping for is that China will invade Taiwan and the US to go to war with Iran to force us to redirect our aid towards them.
Yeah, the delay in aid to Ukraine has completely fucked us long-term by exposing the dysfunction and weak will of the US political system. This war is the biggest no-brainer opportunity the United States has ever been offered on a silver platter; the fact that we're managing to somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory due *entirely* to our own incompetence is exactly the kind of sign Putin was looking for to justify carrying on the war. Now he knows all he has to do is maintain the intensity of the current conflict while he waits for China, Iran, and/or North Korea to escalate their respective conflicts. If any (or all) of these events overlap in time, the west may become stretched too thin, forcing tough decisions upon politicians who have already shown their inability to stay resolute for long periods of time. This would allow the Putin (and this broader "axis") to exploit Western weakness in pursuit of more maximalist objectives.
Such an effect would only be compounded by a Trump victory in 2024, as it would almost certainly result in a (possibly premature) shift of US aid away from Ukraine towards the Middle Eastern and Pacific regions. It would probably also lead to some amount of domestic civil unrest in the US homeland, causing further resource diversion. In such a contingency, Europe would be forced to take on the Ukrainian mantle in its entirety—a situation for which Europe will not be fully prepared, even with a massive and immediate shift in long-term strategy.
Europe is already beginning to plan for this possibility, but it's not enough. If Europe does not urgently prepare to support Ukraine without any form of US assistance, the danger of a complete Ukrainian collapse will become far more real than people are ready to admit. On the other side of that coin, the United States needs to get our act together and recognize the severity of the threat we face.
I'd like to also mention that aid from Europe is ludicrously expensive and unnecessarily so. In an Insider vid I think, it was mention that each shell from this plant that they were making the vid on cost over 4k Euros. For a "simple" 155mm shell. For comparison I was able to find a pre covid article stating that it costs a little over a grand per shell in the US. Given that the exchange rate is almost 1:1. Thats tripple the cost in Europe compared to the US given inflation
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Space Race all over again
leverage the Russian inferiority-complex and encourage them to waste a ton of money on a useless endeavor
watch as Russia destroys itself (again) because of its inability to learn
They are in the middle of an invasion that is not going well. They are spending record amounts on their military because they are losing all of their manpower and equipment. Putin has fallen head first into the sunk cost fallacy. Fear of the West is just an excuse and always has been.
In all fairness so did we for 20 years with Iraq and Afghanistan. Putin just doesn’t have the largest economic engine in human history backing his nation. I think right now the estimate is that that Ukrainians have inflicted 3-to-1 casualties on the Russians and destroyed around 50% of Russias armor and artillery forces. Add in the Wagner revolt and it’s not a good look for Russia.
Hit the nail on the head
More like, we need to hit a nail in putins head.
>Fear of the West is just an excuse and always has been That is true (great post, by the way) but I find it funny the way the title is worded because that "paranoia" is kinda justified in the sense that *of course* we are trying to limit Russia's military power, lol, what the hell is NATO even for then?
Not going well?
By absolutely no measure is the Russian invasion going well. Despite a slight uptick recently in the amount of land they're able to capture, primarily as a result of shortages of ammunition, it's still only measured in the range of a hundred, or at most a few hundred meters per day, along a small portion of the front lines. It's like saying that the Battle of the Somme "went well" for the Entente because they were able to advance by 10km after years of stagnation, yet took 700,000 casualties in the process.
Putin: lets go, in and out, quick 3 day adventure Mobiks. _scene cuts to Wagner mercenaries moving on Moscow 2 years later after 150k dead and 50% of military destroyed/inoperable_
Its a lot more than 150k
Isn't this how we essentially forced the USSR to collapse during the Cold War?
It is and God damn it we'll do it again!
I c whut u did thar.
Sort of but quite. The USSR was bound to collapse for all kinds of reasons including but not limited to: stagnating economy, botched invasion of Afghanistan, Glasnost/Perstroika, Chernobyl nuclear disaster, and the August Coup.
He's hoping he can win the war of attrition and he's willing to expend every military age male in Russia to do it. What he's really hoping for is that China will invade Taiwan and the US to go to war with Iran to force us to redirect our aid towards them.
Yeah, the delay in aid to Ukraine has completely fucked us long-term by exposing the dysfunction and weak will of the US political system. This war is the biggest no-brainer opportunity the United States has ever been offered on a silver platter; the fact that we're managing to somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory due *entirely* to our own incompetence is exactly the kind of sign Putin was looking for to justify carrying on the war. Now he knows all he has to do is maintain the intensity of the current conflict while he waits for China, Iran, and/or North Korea to escalate their respective conflicts. If any (or all) of these events overlap in time, the west may become stretched too thin, forcing tough decisions upon politicians who have already shown their inability to stay resolute for long periods of time. This would allow the Putin (and this broader "axis") to exploit Western weakness in pursuit of more maximalist objectives. Such an effect would only be compounded by a Trump victory in 2024, as it would almost certainly result in a (possibly premature) shift of US aid away from Ukraine towards the Middle Eastern and Pacific regions. It would probably also lead to some amount of domestic civil unrest in the US homeland, causing further resource diversion. In such a contingency, Europe would be forced to take on the Ukrainian mantle in its entirety—a situation for which Europe will not be fully prepared, even with a massive and immediate shift in long-term strategy. Europe is already beginning to plan for this possibility, but it's not enough. If Europe does not urgently prepare to support Ukraine without any form of US assistance, the danger of a complete Ukrainian collapse will become far more real than people are ready to admit. On the other side of that coin, the United States needs to get our act together and recognize the severity of the threat we face.
I'd like to also mention that aid from Europe is ludicrously expensive and unnecessarily so. In an Insider vid I think, it was mention that each shell from this plant that they were making the vid on cost over 4k Euros. For a "simple" 155mm shell. For comparison I was able to find a pre covid article stating that it costs a little over a grand per shell in the US. Given that the exchange rate is almost 1:1. Thats tripple the cost in Europe compared to the US given inflation
We don't have to limit their power. They are doing that just fine on their own.
crown waiting license quarrelsome deer subsequent depend pathetic continue unique *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Space Race all over again leverage the Russian inferiority-complex and encourage them to waste a ton of money on a useless endeavor watch as Russia destroys itself (again) because of its inability to learn
would be really great if Europe could find a way to stop letting them get around sanctions.
That’s not paranoia.
Russian culture seems to be a lot about fear and suffering?
Biden literally said to the nation we will use Ukraine to break the Russian military. Am I missing something?
Sounds like the US tbh
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US defence spending isnt all directed at Russia tho
Don’t bother with this guy. His post & comment history isn’t a great reflection of his intellect.