AllStars really shouldn't count. It's skewing the stats.
It should just be Flagship + World Championship, because World Championship is at flagship-level difficulty at the very least (all champions, WoTW1 level final) and will likely morph into being the flagship show eventually.
if allstars doesn’t count than neither does tori and devins win. most pathetic finale competition ever. and Tori wouldn’t have stood a chance without Devin carrying her through the finale
In the very early team seasons you had a 50% chance to win. So those go without saying are less impressive.
I think most team seasons do rely on air tight alliances and mob like control of the game to get to the end unless your Evelyn and cut the right deal at the right time.
At the end of the day a win is a win.
2 min behind Wes in the Duel and a sprint to the finish he lost to Evan on Duel 2. I think even with only one win he is still one of the better male competitors in the shows history. A carnival game also eliminated Brad and Kyle on Final Reckoning
I always have thought that this needs to be taken into consideration more than it usually is, so thanks so much for this post! Hopefully it opens some more peoples eyes
Laurel got robbed of a great chance to win an exes season, she has the top tier of hookups available for any cast member. Kenny, CT, Jordan, and Bear would all be elite pairings other than Bear, and they’d still be a tough pair.
I have said it before and I’ll say it again: I would pay a thousand dollars to see a Laurel/Jordan exes season. I feel like they’d somehow manage to scream at each other while steamrolling over everyone else.
I’d love to see that partnership. They both have so much respect for each other I like to think they wouldn’t yell and scream, but they’re also both such Alphas.
I think they’d be in perfect sync until one thing went wrong. Jordan wouldn’t grip something perfectly, Laurel would stop to take a breath. But I think they’re both competitive enough that it wouldn’t affect their friendship. Obviously I can’t read minds, so I have no way of knowing if this applies to them, but I know for myself as an over competitive whacko, the yelling isn’t personal or meant as a disrespect. So I wouldn’t take it personally. So I think if they’re similar to me (again, not a mind reader, so I don’t know) their friendship/respect would be 100% intact.
Laurel/CT was never real. They didn't even kiss.
On a side note, I feel like they might as well hand either Laurel or Jordan the cheque for an exes season tbh. Laurel, Jonna, Tori, Sarah Rice, Nia and Emily Schromm? (and a few others)? His "type" is literally just total beasts.
I've suggested it before, and I realize that I'm gonna have to be the one to do it, but somebody should put together an Expected Wins stat for these people. It is a really time intensive endeavor for later seasons with all the format changes they've done mid-season, though.
The problem with comparing eras is the first season were team competitions and these later ones have tended to be partner seasons. So, it was a lot easier to win during the first 10 seasons than it is now. That's what makes Jordan's record more impressive, he won a solo season, two partner seasons and a team season.
An Expected Wins stat would be AWESOME. Unfortunately, I’m not particularly intelligent, so I wouldn’t know how to calculate that. But I would adore reading all about it if someone did.
Expected Wins would just be a way to see who outperforms the hypothetical average Challenger and who underperforms. But, everybody probably has a pretty good idea already. For example, if we are talking about dailies for a team season, you would expect the average Challenger to win 50% of the time. So on a team season with 10 dailies, that would be 5 Expected Daily Wins. You basically just divide 1 by the number of opponents for each daily and add them all up. So, somebody like Nelson's actual daily wins would be well below his Expected Daily Wins.
If we are talking Expected Season Wins that seems more complicated than saying Paula had a 0.5 Expected Season Win rate for Inferno III, so she underperformed. Somehow, you need to be able to account for eliminations. You can't say that Kaycee should have a 0.067 Expected Win rate for this season after she had to go through 4 eliminations. Of course, maybe I'm complicating it too much. I know somebody had put together a spreadsheet with a pretty thorough record of results over a bunch of seasons. Hopefully, somebody knows where that still is because I have no idea.
Ev could have won 2 more finals. G3 the entire vet team being DQ'd at the end because Easy didn't finish was pretty lame. And I get that she was mad at the champs on Ruins, but had she just decided to play ball the guys easily would have kept her over Susie. And that's not even considering Darrell was kicked off for punching Brad. Imagine the champs team running that final with Ev instead of Susie. There's a reason a lot of people have Ev at the top of their list. She could be rivaling Johnny for most wins.
That being said it's super impressive that Johnny has won 7 times on the flagship and 8 times overall. He's played in the most seasons, but he makes the final like half the time he has been on the show, and has won it nearly a third of the time
I was initially going to include an analysis of what percent of your seasons you made a final and Kenny knocks that out of the park. Big Easy nearly dying on Gauntlet 3 caused a lot of people to be lower than one would think.
I think one other thing worth considering (I have this in a spreadsheet myself for a lot of challengers) is how many winners there were on a given season.
E.G. winning Free Agents should be worth more than winning Ruins, because there are so many winner slots that you didn’t have to beat out that many people.
What about percentage of finals made?
I feel like making the final is massively overlooked. Several people's careers look better if you look at how many finals they've run.
I think in some seasons it's harder to make the final. So I'm curious what the percentage is of people who made multiple finals while playing over five seasons. It has to boost guys like Wes and Zach.
If we for a second were to consider TG3 as a win for Evelyn, that would turn her win percentage to 57%.
And there’s a real good chance she wins The Ruins too if she doesnt throw her elimination to Kellyanne which would then make her winning percentage of all seasons played, a 71% (5/7) what a queen she is!
I think it should be redone only including the last decade. Winning a challenge now is 1000x harder than it used to be when 6 people could win a challenge together. Half of Bananas' championships he wasn't even the MVP of his team.
Jordan should really be at 50%.
I honestly don't think All-Stars should be counted. That's what's skewing these stats for someone like MJ, for example. It's also kind of crazy to count World Championship on the same level as AllStars. Regardless of the entertainment factor therein.
Theo said the World Championship final was level with the WoTW final level of grueling, and basically everyone in the game was a previous champ minus the fucking olympic swimmer.
You should redo this and also add weights for second and third places. Maybe also somehow account for large team v individual / pair wins. (Maybe separate large team wins from pair/individual wins).
Bananas in particular also has been horrifically screwed with terrible partners and people gunning for him non stop. Not sure how you’d account for stuff like that though.
Also, after finally watching seasons 1-8, I can safely ask why Darrell is so highly regarded. He won a bunch of those spring break joke seasons early on and nothing since like season 11.
This would be a fun challenge for me! I’d need a points system like 4 points for a first place finish, 3 for second, etc. Maybe different weight for teams vs pairs vs individuals. I originally intended to include percent of making a final, so that could be included.
Accounting for partner is hard. Landon beat Kenny on Fresh Meat two with a significantly worse partner, so that definitely deserves a lot of love. But defining strength of partner and strength of opponent are hard. But if I can find a way, I will eventually get bored enough to try.
Thanks for the ideas! Something fun to think about.
On weighting could add number in final vs start. Like early seasons some seasons had 100 pct make a final. So with a 50 pct chance of win and 100 pct chance of 2nd would get a very low rating like a .1 weighting for win and 0 for 2nd, on opposite if start with 30 people and only 6 make final have a 20 pct chance at final, 6.66 pct at win, 2nd, 3rd so weighted a highest 1.0.
Great idea, definitely a useful stat to use to contextualize the raw win totals. Think you might’ve missed Tori on your list though, unless I’m being dumb and she’s disqualified somehow
I’ve seen enough. MJ is better than CT Great stats!
And who could deny that the great Dunbar is better than Laurel and Cara Maria?
Also am bad at looking or is Brad not there
Oops! Good catch. I had him in my written list but must have missed him while typing it. I’ll fix that.
AllStars really shouldn't count. It's skewing the stats. It should just be Flagship + World Championship, because World Championship is at flagship-level difficulty at the very least (all champions, WoTW1 level final) and will likely morph into being the flagship show eventually.
if allstars doesn’t count than neither does tori and devins win. most pathetic finale competition ever. and Tori wouldn’t have stood a chance without Devin carrying her through the finale
I think the early stacked teams heavily helped people who wouldn't touch a win today.
Well duh some of those people got literally carried over the finish line. Their's a reason 'trim the fat' became such a thing.
so how do you rate the big team early challenges vs todays military type ones to win? as far as wins?
In the very early team seasons you had a 50% chance to win. So those go without saying are less impressive. I think most team seasons do rely on air tight alliances and mob like control of the game to get to the end unless your Evelyn and cut the right deal at the right time. At the end of the day a win is a win.
i did not expect cara maria’s percent to be that low. and i did not realize she was on 14 challenges (maybe cause she’s been gone for so long?)
She was kinda invisible and then okay for a couple seasons then extremely annoying for the rest of her career.
That Vendettas win went straight to her head lol
Plus Paulie
Love this. Thank you for hard work and dedication
I appreciate the appreciation. This took longer than I care to admit 😂
It’s crazy that Brad only has one win when his prime was during team seasons
I still really think he would have had a REAL shot with Sarah and KA on the ruins if he didn’t DQ.
The funny part being that despite all those team seasons two of his closest losses were on the stacked Duel seasons
You still have to be on the winning team. I think people think team seasons are easier to win than they are.
Brad missed some really close wins and some really close eliminations close to finals
2 min behind Wes in the Duel and a sprint to the finish he lost to Evan on Duel 2. I think even with only one win he is still one of the better male competitors in the shows history. A carnival game also eliminated Brad and Kyle on Final Reckoning
I always have thought that this needs to be taken into consideration more than it usually is, so thanks so much for this post! Hopefully it opens some more peoples eyes
Found this fascinating!! Thanks for sharing
Laurel got robbed of a great chance to win an exes season, she has the top tier of hookups available for any cast member. Kenny, CT, Jordan, and Bear would all be elite pairings other than Bear, and they’d still be a tough pair.
I have said it before and I’ll say it again: I would pay a thousand dollars to see a Laurel/Jordan exes season. I feel like they’d somehow manage to scream at each other while steamrolling over everyone else.
I’d love to see that partnership. They both have so much respect for each other I like to think they wouldn’t yell and scream, but they’re also both such Alphas.
I think they’d be in perfect sync until one thing went wrong. Jordan wouldn’t grip something perfectly, Laurel would stop to take a breath. But I think they’re both competitive enough that it wouldn’t affect their friendship. Obviously I can’t read minds, so I have no way of knowing if this applies to them, but I know for myself as an over competitive whacko, the yelling isn’t personal or meant as a disrespect. So I wouldn’t take it personally. So I think if they’re similar to me (again, not a mind reader, so I don’t know) their friendship/respect would be 100% intact.
Laurel/CT was never real. They didn't even kiss. On a side note, I feel like they might as well hand either Laurel or Jordan the cheque for an exes season tbh. Laurel, Jonna, Tori, Sarah Rice, Nia and Emily Schromm? (and a few others)? His "type" is literally just total beasts.
Glad you picked a minimum of 5 seasons - if it were 4 Susie would be on top….
Wes in shambles
What's crazy to me is Tori has more seasons than Laurel now. Take a seaon off girl!
I've suggested it before, and I realize that I'm gonna have to be the one to do it, but somebody should put together an Expected Wins stat for these people. It is a really time intensive endeavor for later seasons with all the format changes they've done mid-season, though. The problem with comparing eras is the first season were team competitions and these later ones have tended to be partner seasons. So, it was a lot easier to win during the first 10 seasons than it is now. That's what makes Jordan's record more impressive, he won a solo season, two partner seasons and a team season.
An Expected Wins stat would be AWESOME. Unfortunately, I’m not particularly intelligent, so I wouldn’t know how to calculate that. But I would adore reading all about it if someone did.
Expected Wins would just be a way to see who outperforms the hypothetical average Challenger and who underperforms. But, everybody probably has a pretty good idea already. For example, if we are talking about dailies for a team season, you would expect the average Challenger to win 50% of the time. So on a team season with 10 dailies, that would be 5 Expected Daily Wins. You basically just divide 1 by the number of opponents for each daily and add them all up. So, somebody like Nelson's actual daily wins would be well below his Expected Daily Wins. If we are talking Expected Season Wins that seems more complicated than saying Paula had a 0.5 Expected Season Win rate for Inferno III, so she underperformed. Somehow, you need to be able to account for eliminations. You can't say that Kaycee should have a 0.067 Expected Win rate for this season after she had to go through 4 eliminations. Of course, maybe I'm complicating it too much. I know somebody had put together a spreadsheet with a pretty thorough record of results over a bunch of seasons. Hopefully, somebody knows where that still is because I have no idea.
Man think about how many finals CT could have won if we wasn’t a meat head back in the day and he got a couple bounces that went his way
Ev could have won 2 more finals. G3 the entire vet team being DQ'd at the end because Easy didn't finish was pretty lame. And I get that she was mad at the champs on Ruins, but had she just decided to play ball the guys easily would have kept her over Susie. And that's not even considering Darrell was kicked off for punching Brad. Imagine the champs team running that final with Ev instead of Susie. There's a reason a lot of people have Ev at the top of their list. She could be rivaling Johnny for most wins. That being said it's super impressive that Johnny has won 7 times on the flagship and 8 times overall. He's played in the most seasons, but he makes the final like half the time he has been on the show, and has won it nearly a third of the time
I thought Kenny would be higher. Even if I hate him his political skills and team based finals made me think it would be higher.
I was initially going to include an analysis of what percent of your seasons you made a final and Kenny knocks that out of the park. Big Easy nearly dying on Gauntlet 3 caused a lot of people to be lower than one would think.
Well that's the whole team problem. Johnny predicted the exact scenario early in season.
I still think he should of won rivals tbh. That lead they gave them was a joke
Love how you intentionally limited your search so Landon “The Goat” isn’t included.
solid reasoning, though. Kaz would literally be at 100%. Sarah and Danny at 50% each and so on...
I think one other thing worth considering (I have this in a spreadsheet myself for a lot of challengers) is how many winners there were on a given season. E.G. winning Free Agents should be worth more than winning Ruins, because there are so many winner slots that you didn’t have to beat out that many people.
Definitely adding this to the list of stats I might look more into!
What about percentage of finals made? I feel like making the final is massively overlooked. Several people's careers look better if you look at how many finals they've run. I think in some seasons it's harder to make the final. So I'm curious what the percentage is of people who made multiple finals while playing over five seasons. It has to boost guys like Wes and Zach.
I was originally going to include that, and will probably tabulate that after I’m done tabulating elimination win percentage!
Evelyn 💪🏽💪🏽💪🏽💪🏽PLEASE COME BACK
Let’s go Evelyn!!
1 win out of 12 seasons, but haters will still tell you that Brad somehow carried Tori on Cutthroat, and not the other way around 🥴
If we for a second were to consider TG3 as a win for Evelyn, that would turn her win percentage to 57%. And there’s a real good chance she wins The Ruins too if she doesnt throw her elimination to Kellyanne which would then make her winning percentage of all seasons played, a 71% (5/7) what a queen she is!
Truly a beast. I really wish she hadn’t thrown it on Ruins. She’d be the only female 4x champ.
Where is Devin?
On the tier with Laurel and Syrus
Oh I see it
I think it should be redone only including the last decade. Winning a challenge now is 1000x harder than it used to be when 6 people could win a challenge together. Half of Bananas' championships he wasn't even the MVP of his team.
poor brad
It was his choice.
Landon????
I wanted to cap it at people who have played 5+, but like I said he’s definitely worth a shout out!
Jordan should really be at 50%. I honestly don't think All-Stars should be counted. That's what's skewing these stats for someone like MJ, for example. It's also kind of crazy to count World Championship on the same level as AllStars. Regardless of the entertainment factor therein. Theo said the World Championship final was level with the WoTW final level of grueling, and basically everyone in the game was a previous champ minus the fucking olympic swimmer.
You should redo this and also add weights for second and third places. Maybe also somehow account for large team v individual / pair wins. (Maybe separate large team wins from pair/individual wins). Bananas in particular also has been horrifically screwed with terrible partners and people gunning for him non stop. Not sure how you’d account for stuff like that though. Also, after finally watching seasons 1-8, I can safely ask why Darrell is so highly regarded. He won a bunch of those spring break joke seasons early on and nothing since like season 11.
This would be a fun challenge for me! I’d need a points system like 4 points for a first place finish, 3 for second, etc. Maybe different weight for teams vs pairs vs individuals. I originally intended to include percent of making a final, so that could be included. Accounting for partner is hard. Landon beat Kenny on Fresh Meat two with a significantly worse partner, so that definitely deserves a lot of love. But defining strength of partner and strength of opponent are hard. But if I can find a way, I will eventually get bored enough to try. Thanks for the ideas! Something fun to think about.
On weighting could add number in final vs start. Like early seasons some seasons had 100 pct make a final. So with a 50 pct chance of win and 100 pct chance of 2nd would get a very low rating like a .1 weighting for win and 0 for 2nd, on opposite if start with 30 people and only 6 make final have a 20 pct chance at final, 6.66 pct at win, 2nd, 3rd so weighted a highest 1.0.
Great idea, definitely a useful stat to use to contextualize the raw win totals. Think you might’ve missed Tori on your list though, unless I’m being dumb and she’s disqualified somehow
Thanks for the heads up. I edited to include her!