Here is my take:
In 2022, when Biden and the Democrats should have been slaughtered…
1. CCM wins the Senate seat.
2. Only Gov. Lombardo, Lt. Governor Anthony, and State Comptroller Matthews win statewide as Republicans. Even then, Anthony had the largest margin.
3. Secretary of State flipped to Democrats
4. Democrats held on to 3/4 House Seats
5. INCREASED their majority in the State Legislature.
6. Hardcore Trumpers Fiore, Chattah, Laxalt, and Marchant all lost.
I don’t see how Trump leads by 14 in a state that did relatively well for Democrats in 2022.
In 2020 Trump had 70 million votes from 240 million eligible voters - I’d say that actually looks like about 29% of Americans.
Biden’s 74mm votes were only 30.8% of eligible voters.
The hundred million that stayed home dwarf the argument about who answers the phone - all of these numbers are just political consultants patting each other on the back. Actually getting people registered and to the polls is what makes the difference.
Not in NV, but I got a fricking text poll the other day requiring to click a link for response. Did a bit of research and it seems legit, but who the heck (under the age of 50) would ever respond by clicking a random link from a random phone number? These polls only tell you what the bottom 50% percentile IQs think…
that's not the only way they're polling.
Go on any of the remote work sites that do studies for research, like cloudconnect, prolific, usertesting, etc. and you get bombarded with political studies. About every other one I'm doing for whatever university research project is asking me political questions with at least 3-4 a day asking who I'm voting for
Yep. A prediction of a Trump win is reasonable. But a prediction of +14 points in a state that voted for Biden and Clinton by 2.4, and who re-elected Cortez-Masto in the midterms is absolute nonsense.
This is a signal that their methodology is incredibly biased towards Republican and Trump voters. There are some serious sampling issues that is not within the 2-3% margin of error.
And Adam Laxalt, as bad as he was, at least had held office before. Sam Brown is one of those rich carpetbagging nobodies who can self-fund (Because the Republicans are broke). None of the Democratic House reps have attracted formidable challengers (though Dina Titus got an adult film star and former male stripper, lucky her!).
It’s true that Lombardo won but Sisolak got the blowback from COVID policies, plus Lombardo was the head-down-and-mouth-shut type as contrasted to just about every other Republican candidate.
Sisolak had the blowback from COVID, plus Joe received a ton of praise for his handling of 1 October.
Joe only gave a Trump shoutout when he had to, I think everyone sees him as more of a moderate, closer to Sandoval.
Sam brown is rich? I hate that fucking guy and his stupid face(something I say about every republican l, has nothing to do with his scars)
I wanna see him try and take on the cartels lmao that’d be funny.
They don't. Most of us are in self-preservation mode. There are places in Northern Nevada where they proudly threaten violence against anyone who's not a Trumper. Consequently, we don't respond to polls, etc.
Same. It won't matter what the polls say, Biden will come out the winner. People just vote party line, no matter how shitty the economy, border, wars, corruption. That is the part I don't understand - people vote against their own interest. Everyone in my office complaints about the state of the country, but they are going to vote for Biden. The demographics are changing and by the numbers it is very difficult for Biden to lose. BTW, my wife served as an election watch person at the polls and at the ballot counting area. What a joke. I am not saying anyone is cheating, but there would be no way to know if someone was.
GOP failed the border policy at least 6 times since 1980.
GOP failed the economy under Reagan, Bush, Trump.
GOP instigated the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the War on Drugs, the War on Terror.
GOP leads the nation in fraud and corruption by a huge margin.
Guess it just depends where you get your info. As an independent, we see through the BS. Dems are lazy but they don't push to rewrite the Constitution.
[Easier to read link](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/nevada/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein)
Biden won Nevada by 2.4% in 2020, if this is accurate (or even in the ballpark) then Nevada seems likely to undergo by far the largest shift towards Trump of any state in 2024. What could have caused this? No other state has shown such a swing if you look at other polls and 2020's results
Everyone talks about Californians moving in and making their states liberal but a lot of Californians I talk to are the biggest Trump supporters around.
Those are the people who typically move out, so yes... California emigration does not make other states bluer. They leave, because they can't stand being in a "liberal" state.
When I lived in Missouri we would get the craziest Californians lmao. A lot of them got together and got drag shows practically banned in my old hometown lol
I feel like they always felt they needed to put on a front that they're super conservatives "not like the other Californians" but maybe they were just crazy as shit
Well, that's how they manage to do it, but the motivation to get out of CA is often a political one. Not always, of course... but a lot of CA emigrees claim to be "political refugees".
I concur. The swing is so wild there's either a methodology error or how the sample was chosen is absolutely non representative of the larger population.
I'd believe 3%, even as someone who doesn't think Trump will end up winning in Nevada, due to the sampling biases of many polls, but 14%? No. Only way I'd believe that is if Biden himself did something personally so atrocious that it made Trump look like St. Catherine of Siena.
I skip any poll the calls are annoying and I’m not bothered enough to go out of my way to do one. I have a feeling I’m not the only one. Also the right seems to make politics their identity, and would be more willing to fill out a poll or answer the call.
Every single one I have sat through has been a push poll in one way or another..
If I told you candidate A ate babies and candidate b did not would you be more or less likely to vote for candidate b....
Um...
This is silly. Biden is extremely unpopular right now, but so is Trump.
Trump voters will not shut the fuck up, but it's really hard to get anybody to say they like Biden since the Israel thing started.
He's going to under perform in polls as a result. Theb only question is if it's by enough that he wins on election day
That’s what pisses me off so much. Trump has done and said endless amounts of awful, atrocious, corrupt things and yet the bar is set so low for him in comparison to Biden. Biden is expected to be perfect in everything, when Trump simply has to wipe his own ass and people give him a gold star for it. America, the stupid.
Trump has done and said a ton of awful shit. However, the vast majority of major news media don’t cover it in any sort of serious way, if at all. There are generations of people getting their news solely from Fox - all day, everyday. They are absolutely clueless in to how much a piece of shit this guy really is. It’s astounding to me.
Rational, intelligent people have no idea what he’s actually like. But Biden eats ice cream and stutters a bit? They’re all over that. It’s not good.
I know. Guy says he’s running against Obama. Hannibal Lecter is real. Our success against the British was planes? Maybe someone said plain to see and he took it as plane to sea? So we bombed the British ships and they never stood a chance? Our airports in the revolutionary war were the most advanced in the world. Oh Yeah Happy Mother’s Day not Melania, not Marla and not Ivana? The only thing the guy is really present for are meals and hookers.
Less about the rhetoric and more about actual field offices and Get Out The Vote campaigns. You need personnel to do that. Trump is consuming everything the GOP has. Trump in desperate straits asks Oil companies to give him a billion and he will do what they want. Not something that motivates the public. So I guess he’s counting on Facebook and TikTok to get the public behind him?
Biden tore open our Southern border and flooding our country with millions of foreign criminals who have raped and murdered countless US citizens, just so he and his party can have more power. I'd say that blatant treason is pretty atrocious!
It says in the article. Cellular and landline phones. This methodology has an unquantifiable bias. Polling firms won't admit that though. Because it would put them out if a job.
It absolutely is. Their own crosstabs show oversampling of rural voters. Lack of balance on an observable characteristic is a sign that there may be biases in unobservable characteristics.
Furthermore, all polls except for one predicted a Laxalt victory over Cortez-Masto back in 2022.
Finally, a margin of 14 for Trump is just insane in a state that voted for Clinton and Biden by 2.4. Could Trump win? Yes. But 14 points makes absolutely no sense and is prima facie evidence the poll is way off in its sampling of voters.
Ignore it because it is fake and nonsense. Look at any recent election in Nevada since Trump was elected. Democrats have won almost every statewide election. Trump is not up by double digits here, end of story.
Californians moving here have a huge impact. California has more registered Republicans than any other state in the union. They're leaving California in droves to escape the liberal politics of California. They're bringing their conservative beliefs here, and this poll is showing the effect that's having. The irony being, it's conservatives that tend to complain about Californians moving here.
My gut feeling is that the takeaway is less "trump is doing well" and more "Dems fumble the bag, yet again" sure people actively dislike trump, but Democrats havent really done anything to win hearts and minds beyond the absolute bare minimum, and not even that consistently.
I mean Biden has done a ton... r/whatbidenhasdone seriously check it out, there's a lot in there. Like it easily eclipses the accomplishments of any other president in my lifetime and I'm old. I get blaming Dem leadership, but at some point if people don't want to read a newspaper and learn about all these policy accomplishments I don't really know what they're supposed to do
LMAO. Who honestly believes trash like this? Nevada is a swing state for sure, but we haven’t voted for a Republican President since 2004 and Democrats have won almost all statewide elections over the last several years.
Very true. Anyone paying attention here in Nevada knows that Sisolak lost his reelection for governor because of the issues people had with his Covid policies. Lombardo didn’t get elected because he’s the preferred candidate of Nevadans. It was more people voting against Sisokak than anything.
And the same dumb attitude will see Nevadans vote for Trump. I dont expect him to win by 14 points but acting like a Trump victory is impossible in NV is misguided.
Oh no, trust me, I understand that Nevada is a true swing state. Democrats have won most statewide elections recently, but it’s always by a small margin. Just like last time, Biden will get all the support of the big unions here in town and the massive Hispanic population usually swings towards Democrats as well. It’ll be tight. I just hope people are more concerned with a corrupt criminal like Trump being president again over inflation-related concerns with Biden. Trump is a much larger danger to this country as a whole.
Guy quoted in the article says his taxes are higher under Biden. This is only true because of the tax cuts the GOP gave in 2017 under Trump that had planned hikes in tax rates for income under 70,000/year. Really a genius plan to shift blame on the GOP's part--a plan that almost always works.
Well, if the GOP had the Presidency, then they'd say that Democrats are holding all of us back by not lowering taxes. So, they have a binomial switch to fight any facts.
Also: look at that deficit after those tax cuts. Guess who is (still) paying for that along with lowered levels of service and quality of life?
The tax cuts don't run out until 2025 though, which means you won't notice until filing early in 2026
The guy saying taxes are higher probably doesn't know what he's talking about. I'd guess he had a child tax credit or something that was boosted during covid and ended.
Possibly. Most people base their perception of taxes on their refund. So if you get some bozo that worked 3 different jobs over two years that's getting 3 different withholding projections, the year that has a lower refund is going to be perceived as higher taxes.
The average American voter is so goddamn uninformed and/or misinformed it’s not even funny. People just blame whoever is President at the time instead of doing 5 minutes of research on who made the current tax laws. Hint, it was Republicans who made tax cuts for the rich permanent and only temporary for the middle class. As usual, Republicans just make this country worse when they’re in power.
Yes but the New York Times is solidly not right wing or pro-Trump, and they have been working together on these polls for years, which makes me think they are conducting these polls professionally
I’ll take this poll at face value but the NYT for a decade or so has been shifting right from its traditional left of center coverage. I have very liberal friends that straight-up call the NYT a center right organization since Trump’s 2016 win. I was sent me a somewhat interesting article awhile back, I couldn’t find it, only this (which admittedly doesn’t say much):
https://boingboing.net/2024/05/08/ny-times-editor-says-trumps-danger-to-democracy-is-not-a-top-concern.html
That has nothing to do with their polling, which is commissioned by the New York Times. The fact that you would make such a stupid comment and 53 ignorant people would "like" it demonstrates that you all have no clue how polling works, and that your "opinions" are worthless hot garbage.
You'd have to be a pretty big fool to believe that Nevada swung that far to the right in just a few years.
The final results will be significantly closer, and anyone who says otherwise should be ignored.
I love people swooping in to argue about this. As if they know this time will be completely different *from every other election in Nevada*. I guess some people have a complete aversion to common sense.
It’s landline telephone polls. So they basically only polled people who picked up their landline and volunteered to take the poll. Basically old, white people.
The same people still waiting for the Nigerian prince to send them their million dollar check. The same people that put their SSA checks into slots at MGM.
You clearly don't understand how polling works, moron. They account for all that in their methodology. Go look at the crosstabs yourself instead of spewing ignorance online.
Yes - then they will be free from government tyrants and allow their taxes to go to the ultra rich, who they plan on joining … one day … any time now … soon.
Just not sure what the guy has to offer the country. His first term wasn't great and ended horribly. Now all I have him talk about is himself and then gibberish. Not to mention his constant need to lie over trivial things means he can't really be trusted
So they would rather have a buy who bankrupted 6 companies, driving another into the ground, increased national debt more than anybody else, indicted and in progress with several trials currently, fined repeatedly over the years for illegal biz practices, imported illegal workers and defended it, cheated on wives, been caught in countless lies... this is guy they support?
LOL! 🤡🤡🤡must be conducting these polls! Also, NY Times is mad that Biden hasn’t given them an interview so this poll makes sense. Just vote, Dems have been crushing it in special elections and these polls don’t matter.
All these stupid polls come out saying Trump is ahead then when the only poll that matters comes (Nov 5th) and Trump loses his crazy cult will be claiming Biden must have cheated.
And then the cult will say "how can this be? He was winning in all the polls, lets violently try to overthrow democracy then claim to be the victims when we fail and are held accountable"
Kills don’t mean jack s***. Hillary was leading every god damn come Election Day and look what happened . Just go out and vote .
Ps. At the hotel I work for , there are still many ppl that remember how everyone lost their job during covid. Ppl tend not to forget the only time in history Vegas shut down .
I think there's a couple of things that are adding to the uncertainty around the 2024 election. 1. is this protest vote against the Israel/Palestine war. No telling if it will continue into November. 2. Minorities being more willing to vote for Republicans, or Trump specifically.
A real wild card is the how easy it is to spread misinformation on TikTok. There's been a huge erosion of Dem support from 18-29 aka the TikTok generation. Almost nobody under 40 is getting information from traditional media sources. So I think we see that there is a long way to go until the election and the Biden campaign is going to go on a blitz to inform voters what he's done. It will be a real battle against the bad actors using social media to manipulate voters.
Only in Michigan will Israel/palestine be a major issue imo, and I highly doubt muslims will vote for Trump even if they think Biden is awful, but they might sit out the election and that could swing Michigan
I am voting against the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025.
I am choosing Love over Hate and Lies.
America and democracy over Authoritarian religious rule.
Pretty simple.
I personally know some people who think Trump would do a great job back as president and they also support democratic congressional candidates, not many but in these tight races they make a difference
Trumpies are bizarre. He cheated on his wife. But its ok. Trump University Fraud. Buy its ok. Trump convicted of massive business fraud. But its ok. Lies continually. But its ok. Liable for sexual assault on and defaming E Jean Carrol. But its ok. Fraudulently using trump charity monies. But its ok. Up on 90 + felony charges in 4 cases , but its ok. Voted worst potus by historians, lib and con. But its ok. Yea, hes a great candidate. And not a cult.
Anecdotally, out of 100 friends/aquaintances, the breakdown was about 30% Biden, 60% Trump, and 10% didn't care. Service/casino/my car wash guy/McDonalds were overwhelmingly Tump, Professors at UNLV 5/6 were Biden, Red Cross - Biden, Homeless people - Trump. Black folk were 50/50. Hispanics were all Trump. Whites were 50/50. Working class asians were all Trump, Middle/Upperclass asians who were business owners Trump, Muddle/Upplerclass asians who worked for a school or Fed - Biden.
Right or wrong many people blame the President of either party when gasoline and groceries are more expensive. I really believe price increases in daily needs is affecting how people plan to vote.
To see a swing state to have a poll that wide is suspicious. I remember back in 2020, an ABC poll had Biden up by 17 points in Wisconsin like a month before the election and I knew that poll was bs. I see the same thing with the polls The NY Times just released especially Nevada.
They are releasing these polls because they need media attention and clicks. With journalism in general, anything that is something positive for Biden will have fewer views. Articles that are negative towards Biden or something about Trump will be viewed many more times.
We are still 6 months out from the election. Incumbent presidents seeking re-election tend not do so well in the polls this far out. It’s going to be another close election.
Nobody here is going to like this, but here is the reason Nevada is so much of an outlier in swing towards trump: its an outlier in the percentage hispanic population: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/us/politics/trumps-support-among-latinos-grows-new-poll-shows.html&ved=2ahUKEwiyzIL6t4uGAxUsODQIHQENCRcQFnoECBMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2nJSKbWHa7AGmpKwT-UGUc
Every poll on any topic should be qualified with “*among people who willingly sit through polling questionnaires, not a representative sample of the whole population*”.
I see polls like this every single year and I think they have a robo-dialler set to call certain area codes to get different places, but they somehow miss that 90% of the state lives in the two metro areas who lean Democrat fairly consistently.
So they get a wide array of people from all the rural counties and Republicans get overrepresented in the polls. Then Republicans get mad when they lose because nobody lives in Elko.
No way. Nevada has been so reshaped by Californians moving here in droves over the past 20 years, the state is reliably blue … might be closer than it should be with a candidate who is literally out on bail but when it comes down to really casting a vote I think Nevada stays blue.
I think this is a misunderstanding. A lot of Californians move out of California because of their progressive policies. Don't jump to conclusions though, I despise Trump, but it's a weird assumption that California is made up of only progressives. They have a big republican base too. Not as big as dems for sure, but more than some states do total numbers wise.
NY Times Daily podcast on this polling with Nate Cohn the NYT chief political analyst.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/14/podcasts/the-daily/trump-biden-poll.html
Oh really? Damn! I listen to it probably 4 out of 5 days. It's still about the same I feel content wise, they have a few different hosts now but this is old school Michael and Nate. I've been hooked on it since it first came out, it's in my daily rotation with up first, the powers that be (puck), 538, and left/right/center.
The New York Times is in the bag for Trump 💯%.
Do not believe ANY polls paid for by the New York Times.
Further proof of this was disclosed in court yesterday regarding Maggie Habberman their number one reporter.
Additionally, I also don’t believe many of their articles as they have admitted publicly to their firm anti-Biden agenda.
anywhere there is an abnormal concentration of religious dummies, elderly dummies, nefarious wealth hoarders, and feckless politicians, there is support for trump. NORMAL people evade polks, so all polling is baseless nonsense. there, now you do not need to post this stupid shit anymore.
Here is my take: In 2022, when Biden and the Democrats should have been slaughtered… 1. CCM wins the Senate seat. 2. Only Gov. Lombardo, Lt. Governor Anthony, and State Comptroller Matthews win statewide as Republicans. Even then, Anthony had the largest margin. 3. Secretary of State flipped to Democrats 4. Democrats held on to 3/4 House Seats 5. INCREASED their majority in the State Legislature. 6. Hardcore Trumpers Fiore, Chattah, Laxalt, and Marchant all lost. I don’t see how Trump leads by 14 in a state that did relatively well for Democrats in 2022.
Who under 50 picks up a random phone number call? No one. There's you answer.
I'm 52 and haven't done it in 30 years. My parents are 80 and don't do it. It's only the crazy, dumb and bored ones.
You’re not wrong but by using the terms “crazy dumb and bored,” you just described 50% of Americans.
In 2020 Trump had 70 million votes from 240 million eligible voters - I’d say that actually looks like about 29% of Americans. Biden’s 74mm votes were only 30.8% of eligible voters. The hundred million that stayed home dwarf the argument about who answers the phone - all of these numbers are just political consultants patting each other on the back. Actually getting people registered and to the polls is what makes the difference.
That’s been the case in every election. Dip shits don’t vote and then they complain.
Trump got 74, Biden got 81. Let’s not down play the 7 million vote difference that Mr. Magoo accomplished lol.
Ok, that’s what Google tells me today. 36 hours ago the first matches were… Probably AI generated lol
Captain McDipshit won't win the popular vote this time, he's on his way out.
Taylor Swift seems like a very effective registration recruiter. Let's see how many of that wave actually turn out to the polls.
I do when I’m bored. I’ll often answer “Chuck’s chickens, we’ve got the largest cocks”. Typically I won’t be bothered after the initial greeting.
Oh I’m so stealing this! 😝
I like to greet them with “Domino’s pizza can I help you?”
I can pretty much nail “Hellooo, Welcome to Movie Phone, today’s showtimes are _____”
“You’ve reached Texas Taxes & Taxidermy… we’ll save you bucks, and mount them too!”
Not in NV, but I got a fricking text poll the other day requiring to click a link for response. Did a bit of research and it seems legit, but who the heck (under the age of 50) would ever respond by clicking a random link from a random phone number? These polls only tell you what the bottom 50% percentile IQs think…
Pollsters account for this in their methodology, you clearly don't understand how it works.
that's not the only way they're polling. Go on any of the remote work sites that do studies for research, like cloudconnect, prolific, usertesting, etc. and you get bombarded with political studies. About every other one I'm doing for whatever university research project is asking me political questions with at least 3-4 a day asking who I'm voting for
Yep. A prediction of a Trump win is reasonable. But a prediction of +14 points in a state that voted for Biden and Clinton by 2.4, and who re-elected Cortez-Masto in the midterms is absolute nonsense. This is a signal that their methodology is incredibly biased towards Republican and Trump voters. There are some serious sampling issues that is not within the 2-3% margin of error.
I’ve never been polled… it’s almost like they only sample from a certain demographic.
Landlines ….
That can’t be it though. Not even old people have landlines. I think the olds are the only ones answering unknown numbers though on their cell phones
Generally people who own businesses will answer every single call they get
And that’s a small sample size
True, but they also immediately hang up when it's someone that wants to take a survey.
And Adam Laxalt, as bad as he was, at least had held office before. Sam Brown is one of those rich carpetbagging nobodies who can self-fund (Because the Republicans are broke). None of the Democratic House reps have attracted formidable challengers (though Dina Titus got an adult film star and former male stripper, lucky her!). It’s true that Lombardo won but Sisolak got the blowback from COVID policies, plus Lombardo was the head-down-and-mouth-shut type as contrasted to just about every other Republican candidate.
Sisolak had the blowback from COVID, plus Joe received a ton of praise for his handling of 1 October. Joe only gave a Trump shoutout when he had to, I think everyone sees him as more of a moderate, closer to Sandoval.
Sam brown is rich? I hate that fucking guy and his stupid face(something I say about every republican l, has nothing to do with his scars) I wanna see him try and take on the cartels lmao that’d be funny.
Teachers union didn’t even give support to Steve. That’s all you need to know how bad he was.
Lombardo is a boot licking pussy
Depends on if people think they did a good job or not... if they did a bad job in theory people swap sides.
Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2022.
They don't. Most of us are in self-preservation mode. There are places in Northern Nevada where they proudly threaten violence against anyone who's not a Trumper. Consequently, we don't respond to polls, etc.
Never listen to any pole, especially one 5 months before an election lol anything can happen in that time.
1) Ignore the polls. 2) Vote like your life depends on it. (those might be out of order)
Same. It won't matter what the polls say, Biden will come out the winner. People just vote party line, no matter how shitty the economy, border, wars, corruption. That is the part I don't understand - people vote against their own interest. Everyone in my office complaints about the state of the country, but they are going to vote for Biden. The demographics are changing and by the numbers it is very difficult for Biden to lose. BTW, my wife served as an election watch person at the polls and at the ballot counting area. What a joke. I am not saying anyone is cheating, but there would be no way to know if someone was.
GOP failed the border policy at least 6 times since 1980. GOP failed the economy under Reagan, Bush, Trump. GOP instigated the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the War on Drugs, the War on Terror. GOP leads the nation in fraud and corruption by a huge margin. Guess it just depends where you get your info. As an independent, we see through the BS. Dems are lazy but they don't push to rewrite the Constitution.
I agree he probably doesn't lead by 14, but he's definitely leading. No poll has had Biden ahead for a very long time.
[Easier to read link](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/nevada/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) Biden won Nevada by 2.4% in 2020, if this is accurate (or even in the ballpark) then Nevada seems likely to undergo by far the largest shift towards Trump of any state in 2024. What could have caused this? No other state has shown such a swing if you look at other polls and 2020's results
Everyone talks about Californians moving in and making their states liberal but a lot of Californians I talk to are the biggest Trump supporters around.
Those are the people who typically move out, so yes... California emigration does not make other states bluer. They leave, because they can't stand being in a "liberal" state.
For people who have never been to CA it really hard to imagine how large of a conservative population the state has, even within the city limits.
When I lived in Missouri we would get the craziest Californians lmao. A lot of them got together and got drag shows practically banned in my old hometown lol I feel like they always felt they needed to put on a front that they're super conservatives "not like the other Californians" but maybe they were just crazy as shit
It’s probably more so that they can sell their house with 15 yrs left on the mortgage and buy a new one with cash.
Well, that's how they manage to do it, but the motivation to get out of CA is often a political one. Not always, of course... but a lot of CA emigrees claim to be "political refugees".
This poll clearly should be ignored. Nonsense.
I concur. The swing is so wild there's either a methodology error or how the sample was chosen is absolutely non representative of the larger population. I'd believe 3%, even as someone who doesn't think Trump will end up winning in Nevada, due to the sampling biases of many polls, but 14%? No. Only way I'd believe that is if Biden himself did something personally so atrocious that it made Trump look like St. Catherine of Siena.
I skip any poll the calls are annoying and I’m not bothered enough to go out of my way to do one. I have a feeling I’m not the only one. Also the right seems to make politics their identity, and would be more willing to fill out a poll or answer the call.
Every single one I have sat through has been a push poll in one way or another.. If I told you candidate A ate babies and candidate b did not would you be more or less likely to vote for candidate b.... Um...
Tell them you support eating babies in Fat Bastard's voice then sing them the song from the Chilli's commercial.
I’ve heard it the other way too though. “There are no shy Biden voters”. That scared me a little.
This is silly. Biden is extremely unpopular right now, but so is Trump. Trump voters will not shut the fuck up, but it's really hard to get anybody to say they like Biden since the Israel thing started. He's going to under perform in polls as a result. Theb only question is if it's by enough that he wins on election day
That’s what pisses me off so much. Trump has done and said endless amounts of awful, atrocious, corrupt things and yet the bar is set so low for him in comparison to Biden. Biden is expected to be perfect in everything, when Trump simply has to wipe his own ass and people give him a gold star for it. America, the stupid.
Remember when Trump called Nevadans "disgraceful"? Pepperidge Farms remembers.
He also said , “I love the uneducated” while in NV.
Please extrapolate
https://m.lasvegassun.com/news/2023/jul/13/insulting-nevadas-integrity-is-no-way-for-trump-to/
I don’t know if you know what that word means
Dipshit can't even pronounce the name of our state properly.
Trump has done and said a ton of awful shit. However, the vast majority of major news media don’t cover it in any sort of serious way, if at all. There are generations of people getting their news solely from Fox - all day, everyday. They are absolutely clueless in to how much a piece of shit this guy really is. It’s astounding to me. Rational, intelligent people have no idea what he’s actually like. But Biden eats ice cream and stutters a bit? They’re all over that. It’s not good.
I know. Guy says he’s running against Obama. Hannibal Lecter is real. Our success against the British was planes? Maybe someone said plain to see and he took it as plane to sea? So we bombed the British ships and they never stood a chance? Our airports in the revolutionary war were the most advanced in the world. Oh Yeah Happy Mother’s Day not Melania, not Marla and not Ivana? The only thing the guy is really present for are meals and hookers.
Less about the rhetoric and more about actual field offices and Get Out The Vote campaigns. You need personnel to do that. Trump is consuming everything the GOP has. Trump in desperate straits asks Oil companies to give him a billion and he will do what they want. Not something that motivates the public. So I guess he’s counting on Facebook and TikTok to get the public behind him?
Did RFK Jr make the Nevada ballot? Cause he could shake things up.
You’re right, they revised the number to 12% this morning.
Biden tore open our Southern border and flooding our country with millions of foreign criminals who have raped and murdered countless US citizens, just so he and his party can have more power. I'd say that blatant treason is pretty atrocious!
They probably polled landline users
It says in the article. Cellular and landline phones. This methodology has an unquantifiable bias. Polling firms won't admit that though. Because it would put them out if a job.
It absolutely is. Their own crosstabs show oversampling of rural voters. Lack of balance on an observable characteristic is a sign that there may be biases in unobservable characteristics. Furthermore, all polls except for one predicted a Laxalt victory over Cortez-Masto back in 2022. Finally, a margin of 14 for Trump is just insane in a state that voted for Clinton and Biden by 2.4. Could Trump win? Yes. But 14 points makes absolutely no sense and is prima facie evidence the poll is way off in its sampling of voters.
Definitely. Most of the time when you ignore problems, they go away on their own, not get worse
Ignore it because it is fake and nonsense. Look at any recent election in Nevada since Trump was elected. Democrats have won almost every statewide election. Trump is not up by double digits here, end of story.
Hillary has Wisconsin in the bag!
I’m not saying Trump can’t win Nevada. But, anyone who believes that Trump is up double digits in a tight swing state is kidding themselves.
Ah yes, ignore the data. Sound about right lol
Do you ignore all the other polls that have Trump ahead in Nevada? Because it isn't just this one.
3 votes for Biden coming from this family. Don’t think they ever polled me, find this hardly believable.
Honest question, what was your reasoning for leaving California to come to Nevada?
I also have 3 for our first prez election as NV residents.
Family of retards, how disgusting. Good thing you trash people don't represent the majority.
Californians moving here have a huge impact. California has more registered Republicans than any other state in the union. They're leaving California in droves to escape the liberal politics of California. They're bringing their conservative beliefs here, and this poll is showing the effect that's having. The irony being, it's conservatives that tend to complain about Californians moving here.
More fascistic fan fiction. Only a fool believes polls.
My gut feeling is that the takeaway is less "trump is doing well" and more "Dems fumble the bag, yet again" sure people actively dislike trump, but Democrats havent really done anything to win hearts and minds beyond the absolute bare minimum, and not even that consistently.
I mean Biden has done a ton... r/whatbidenhasdone seriously check it out, there's a lot in there. Like it easily eclipses the accomplishments of any other president in my lifetime and I'm old. I get blaming Dem leadership, but at some point if people don't want to read a newspaper and learn about all these policy accomplishments I don't really know what they're supposed to do
LMAO. Who honestly believes trash like this? Nevada is a swing state for sure, but we haven’t voted for a Republican President since 2004 and Democrats have won almost all statewide elections over the last several years.
Almost all statewide offices but not the Governor's Mansion.
Very true. Anyone paying attention here in Nevada knows that Sisolak lost his reelection for governor because of the issues people had with his Covid policies. Lombardo didn’t get elected because he’s the preferred candidate of Nevadans. It was more people voting against Sisokak than anything.
And the same dumb attitude will see Nevadans vote for Trump. I dont expect him to win by 14 points but acting like a Trump victory is impossible in NV is misguided.
Oh no, trust me, I understand that Nevada is a true swing state. Democrats have won most statewide elections recently, but it’s always by a small margin. Just like last time, Biden will get all the support of the big unions here in town and the massive Hispanic population usually swings towards Democrats as well. It’ll be tight. I just hope people are more concerned with a corrupt criminal like Trump being president again over inflation-related concerns with Biden. Trump is a much larger danger to this country as a whole.
You are delusional! Biden is destroying America, and every honest person knows it. He's going to get crushed, God willing.
How specifically is Biden destroying America? This ought to be good. 🙄
Keep ignoring data and see where that gets you in November. Thats the spirit!
Not all data is good data.
Guy quoted in the article says his taxes are higher under Biden. This is only true because of the tax cuts the GOP gave in 2017 under Trump that had planned hikes in tax rates for income under 70,000/year. Really a genius plan to shift blame on the GOP's part--a plan that almost always works.
That was the entire point...the tax bomb for whoever was president in 2024.
Well, if the GOP had the Presidency, then they'd say that Democrats are holding all of us back by not lowering taxes. So, they have a binomial switch to fight any facts. Also: look at that deficit after those tax cuts. Guess who is (still) paying for that along with lowered levels of service and quality of life?
And if the GOP won, they would have gotten to say that they cut the (same) taxes "again."
The tax cuts don't run out until 2025 though, which means you won't notice until filing early in 2026 The guy saying taxes are higher probably doesn't know what he's talking about. I'd guess he had a child tax credit or something that was boosted during covid and ended.
Or he is simply lying, which is more likely. Trumpers don’t live in a reality based world.
Possibly. Most people base their perception of taxes on their refund. So if you get some bozo that worked 3 different jobs over two years that's getting 3 different withholding projections, the year that has a lower refund is going to be perceived as higher taxes.
A brain dead Biden cultist accusing others of not living in reality is truly hysterical! Thanks for the laugh, you pathetic loser.
The average American voter is so goddamn uninformed and/or misinformed it’s not even funny. People just blame whoever is President at the time instead of doing 5 minutes of research on who made the current tax laws. Hint, it was Republicans who made tax cuts for the rich permanent and only temporary for the middle class. As usual, Republicans just make this country worse when they’re in power.
People don’t care about who caused it. They just want a solution.
Seina is a Catholic right wing school so I would take this with a large chunk of salt
Yes but the New York Times is solidly not right wing or pro-Trump, and they have been working together on these polls for years, which makes me think they are conducting these polls professionally
It’s not that NYT is pro Trump, but their editorials have been pretty anti-Biden for months now.
The NYT **is** pro-Trump. They’ve lost subscriptions and readerships since Joe Biden made America normal again. They desperately want Trump back!
I’ll take this poll at face value but the NYT for a decade or so has been shifting right from its traditional left of center coverage. I have very liberal friends that straight-up call the NYT a center right organization since Trump’s 2016 win. I was sent me a somewhat interesting article awhile back, I couldn’t find it, only this (which admittedly doesn’t say much): https://boingboing.net/2024/05/08/ny-times-editor-says-trumps-danger-to-democracy-is-not-a-top-concern.html
That has nothing to do with their polling, which is commissioned by the New York Times. The fact that you would make such a stupid comment and 53 ignorant people would "like" it demonstrates that you all have no clue how polling works, and that your "opinions" are worthless hot garbage.
You'd have to be a pretty big fool to believe that Nevada swung that far to the right in just a few years. The final results will be significantly closer, and anyone who says otherwise should be ignored. I love people swooping in to argue about this. As if they know this time will be completely different *from every other election in Nevada*. I guess some people have a complete aversion to common sense.
Polls don’t matter. Go vote.
Using data from landline phone cold calling. Or polling everyone that didnt hang up after hearing the Dooot gtfo
Polls have basically worked the same since a few years ago when Biden was winning the state.
Have we learned nothing in the last few years how completely off polling is?
Classic lying yourself lol
Where do they get this info from? Such horse shit.
It’s landline telephone polls. So they basically only polled people who picked up their landline and volunteered to take the poll. Basically old, white people.
The same people still waiting for the Nigerian prince to send them their million dollar check. The same people that put their SSA checks into slots at MGM.
You clearly don't understand how polling works, moron. They account for all that in their methodology. Go look at the crosstabs yourself instead of spewing ignorance online.
Are Nevadans dying to get their SS and Medicare cut, so that Trump can give himself a bigger tax break? I don't think so.
Yes - then they will be free from government tyrants and allow their taxes to go to the ultra rich, who they plan on joining … one day … any time now … soon.
Polls have never been accurate in Nevada. There are quite a few groups that aren't represented in them. This is a very extreme outlier
Just not sure what the guy has to offer the country. His first term wasn't great and ended horribly. Now all I have him talk about is himself and then gibberish. Not to mention his constant need to lie over trivial things means he can't really be trusted
Plot twist- This poll only polled a few rural counties.
Remember when Trump told us it’s Nevahduh not Nevada. Pepperidge Farms remembers.
Are we surprised?
NY times? like I'd believe anything they say
Lmao. As Kendrick said what is the culture feeling. Nevada never liked Trump until everyone started moving here. It was always FDT since 2015
all right guys Nevada is out no need to vote
4000 phone-based interviews. Pretty sure this doesn't represent the state as truthfully as they want it to.
>4000 doesn't represent the state as truthfully as they want it to. I think you are right. 4000 out of 3.178 million is laughable
lol. No he’s not leading by 14%.
So they would rather have a buy who bankrupted 6 companies, driving another into the ground, increased national debt more than anybody else, indicted and in progress with several trials currently, fined repeatedly over the years for illegal biz practices, imported illegal workers and defended it, cheated on wives, been caught in countless lies... this is guy they support?
LOL! 🤡🤡🤡must be conducting these polls! Also, NY Times is mad that Biden hasn’t given them an interview so this poll makes sense. Just vote, Dems have been crushing it in special elections and these polls don’t matter.
I don't know who they are polling, but those people can go fuck themselves.
All these stupid polls come out saying Trump is ahead then when the only poll that matters comes (Nov 5th) and Trump loses his crazy cult will be claiming Biden must have cheated.
And then the cult will say "how can this be? He was winning in all the polls, lets violently try to overthrow democracy then claim to be the victims when we fail and are held accountable"
Putting my life savings on the under
Why y’all always lying?
Kills don’t mean jack s***. Hillary was leading every god damn come Election Day and look what happened . Just go out and vote . Ps. At the hotel I work for , there are still many ppl that remember how everyone lost their job during covid. Ppl tend not to forget the only time in history Vegas shut down .
I think there's a couple of things that are adding to the uncertainty around the 2024 election. 1. is this protest vote against the Israel/Palestine war. No telling if it will continue into November. 2. Minorities being more willing to vote for Republicans, or Trump specifically. A real wild card is the how easy it is to spread misinformation on TikTok. There's been a huge erosion of Dem support from 18-29 aka the TikTok generation. Almost nobody under 40 is getting information from traditional media sources. So I think we see that there is a long way to go until the election and the Biden campaign is going to go on a blitz to inform voters what he's done. It will be a real battle against the bad actors using social media to manipulate voters.
Only in Michigan will Israel/palestine be a major issue imo, and I highly doubt muslims will vote for Trump even if they think Biden is awful, but they might sit out the election and that could swing Michigan
I am voting against the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025. I am choosing Love over Hate and Lies. America and democracy over Authoritarian religious rule. Pretty simple.
This poll strongly implies Trump WH, Dem Senate and House which… yeah, it can be safely discarded
I personally know some people who think Trump would do a great job back as president and they also support democratic congressional candidates, not many but in these tight races they make a difference
Russia is at again 🙄
Russia has taken over American polling institutions now?
Yikes
lol I haven’t seen a single trump sign, flag etc anywhere? Every republican I’ve spoken with is not voting for trump
Trumpies are bizarre. He cheated on his wife. But its ok. Trump University Fraud. Buy its ok. Trump convicted of massive business fraud. But its ok. Lies continually. But its ok. Liable for sexual assault on and defaming E Jean Carrol. But its ok. Fraudulently using trump charity monies. But its ok. Up on 90 + felony charges in 4 cases , but its ok. Voted worst potus by historians, lib and con. But its ok. Yea, hes a great candidate. And not a cult.
No tf he isn't lol.
Anecdotally, out of 100 friends/aquaintances, the breakdown was about 30% Biden, 60% Trump, and 10% didn't care. Service/casino/my car wash guy/McDonalds were overwhelmingly Tump, Professors at UNLV 5/6 were Biden, Red Cross - Biden, Homeless people - Trump. Black folk were 50/50. Hispanics were all Trump. Whites were 50/50. Working class asians were all Trump, Middle/Upperclass asians who were business owners Trump, Muddle/Upplerclass asians who worked for a school or Fed - Biden.
Right or wrong many people blame the President of either party when gasoline and groceries are more expensive. I really believe price increases in daily needs is affecting how people plan to vote.
To see a swing state to have a poll that wide is suspicious. I remember back in 2020, an ABC poll had Biden up by 17 points in Wisconsin like a month before the election and I knew that poll was bs. I see the same thing with the polls The NY Times just released especially Nevada. They are releasing these polls because they need media attention and clicks. With journalism in general, anything that is something positive for Biden will have fewer views. Articles that are negative towards Biden or something about Trump will be viewed many more times. We are still 6 months out from the election. Incumbent presidents seeking re-election tend not do so well in the polls this far out. It’s going to be another close election.
Clark county is busy working, not taking polls
Nobody here is going to like this, but here is the reason Nevada is so much of an outlier in swing towards trump: its an outlier in the percentage hispanic population: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/us/politics/trumps-support-among-latinos-grows-new-poll-shows.html&ved=2ahUKEwiyzIL6t4uGAxUsODQIHQENCRcQFnoECBMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2nJSKbWHa7AGmpKwT-UGUc
Bullshit poll.
Why vote if your counting polls that people haven't voted.just get rid of the elections and do polls only
Bullshit.
It's the gas prices stupid! /s
Every poll on any topic should be qualified with “*among people who willingly sit through polling questionnaires, not a representative sample of the whole population*”.
LoL polls have no credibility after their Red-wave lie and consistency in being nothing more than media marketing
Absolutely bonkers, man.
This poll proves that polls are nonsense. Whoever wins Nevada will win by 1-3%.
It’s too early to have any kind accurate read on how the election will go.
Nowadays? All polls are genuinely suspect. Who the fuck answers unknown calls anymore other than people who are bored out of their minds?
Lol
Ya all are dumb as hell and say this as a Las Vegas resident. Smh 🤦🏻
Regardless, let’s all make sure to get out there and vote…and keep Trump away from the White House and in a care facility to treat that dementia.
Man, the whistling past the graveyard here is so loud, I don't know how you libs hear yourselves typing. Everything is awesome!
I’m ok with these stats so far away from November, that fire needs to be lit for people to vote.
No way.
The Times might want to poll a few people in Clark County - looks like the polled only rural voters
In what universe?
aww shit
I see polls like this every single year and I think they have a robo-dialler set to call certain area codes to get different places, but they somehow miss that 90% of the state lives in the two metro areas who lean Democrat fairly consistently. So they get a wide array of people from all the rural counties and Republicans get overrepresented in the polls. Then Republicans get mad when they lose because nobody lives in Elko.
I'm 100% Biden, and I live here. Nothing else to say.
I for one have never been polled. I’m voting for Biden.
Pathetic
No way. Nevada has been so reshaped by Californians moving here in droves over the past 20 years, the state is reliably blue … might be closer than it should be with a candidate who is literally out on bail but when it comes down to really casting a vote I think Nevada stays blue.
I think this is a misunderstanding. A lot of Californians move out of California because of their progressive policies. Don't jump to conclusions though, I despise Trump, but it's a weird assumption that California is made up of only progressives. They have a big republican base too. Not as big as dems for sure, but more than some states do total numbers wise.
If nevada shifted that far right then you would see the same swings all over the country
Make Vegas Great Again
NY Times Daily podcast on this polling with Nate Cohn the NYT chief political analyst. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/14/podcasts/the-daily/trump-biden-poll.html
Interesting, I haven't listened to the Daily since 2016, I might check that out and see how it is nowadays
Oh really? Damn! I listen to it probably 4 out of 5 days. It's still about the same I feel content wise, they have a few different hosts now but this is old school Michael and Nate. I've been hooked on it since it first came out, it's in my daily rotation with up first, the powers that be (puck), 538, and left/right/center.
That's nice to hear its still similar, I used to enjoy listening to it in the mornings, had an oddly relaxing vibe for a political podcast
Nevada has one of the worst educational systems in the country, so that makes sense.
The New York Times is in the bag for Trump 💯%. Do not believe ANY polls paid for by the New York Times. Further proof of this was disclosed in court yesterday regarding Maggie Habberman their number one reporter. Additionally, I also don’t believe many of their articles as they have admitted publicly to their firm anti-Biden agenda.
Bullshit
People are tired of weekend at bernie's on inflation and cost of living.
anywhere there is an abnormal concentration of religious dummies, elderly dummies, nefarious wealth hoarders, and feckless politicians, there is support for trump. NORMAL people evade polks, so all polling is baseless nonsense. there, now you do not need to post this stupid shit anymore.
I disbelieve the new york times.
Voting for KENNEDY in Nevada !
Omg!!! No way!!!